COP19: Pledges vs. implemented action - where are we really heading?
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Transcript of COP19: Pledges vs. implemented action - where are we really heading?
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Climate Action Tracker side event
Pledges vs. implemented action -where are we really heading?
Warsaw, 16 November 2013
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Outline
▶ Global overview - Nadine Braun, Ecofys
▶ Country examples
� EU, Australia, Japan - Marion Vieweg, Climate Analytics
� US, China - Hanna Fekete, Ecofys
▶ Implications - Bill Hare, Climate Analytics
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Climate Action Tracker
• Pledges:
– Up-to-date assessment of national emission reduction proposals
– What is the level of ambition?
• Current emission trends:
– Assessment of implemented climate policies
– Are current activities sufficient to meet the pledge?
www.climateactiontracker.org
> Temperature: Translation into
global emissions pathways and
impact on temperature
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Assessment: pledges and policies not yet sufficient
Inadequate
Medium
Sufficient
Role model
Rating of pledge
Likelihood of achieving pledge with implemented policies
Likely
Unlikely
? Unclear
?
?
Not assessed
?
?
>
>
>
> BAU>Pledge Pledge > BAU
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EU: Achieving target with no additional action
• No additional policies required for the EU to achieve their 2020 target
• Emissions trend since 1990 is expected to continue until 2020
• Many policy initiatives that are in progress could further decrease emissions, although a resurgence of coal use could counteract this
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Australia: Backtracking on promising progress
• New government about to repeal ambitious legislation put in place in 2011, that would have led to meet the 5% target
• Proposed new climate policy - lacks the resources to meet the target reduction goal and instead could lead to emissions of about 12% above 2000 levels by 2020
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Japan: Joining the land of low ambition
• New 2020 target equivalent to no emissions reduction relative to 2011
• New target increases the 2020 UNEP Emissions Gap by 3-4%
• Little additional effort needed to meet new target (64 MtCO2e)
• Change in ambition cannot be fully justified by ‘no nuclear’ scenario
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China: close to achieving pledge but still rising emissions
• Pledge level remains unclear in absolute terms and is rated Inadequate
• Close to achieving the pledge, still strong emissions increase
• Strong action in renewable energy and efficient industry
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US: Implemented policies insufficient to meet pledge
• Pledge inadequate and not achieved with implemented policies as of September 2012
• Climate Change Action Plan announced June 2013 could get the US there, if fully implemented
• Variety of individual activities at federal and state level but not yet with the required level of ambition and effectiveness
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www.climateactiontracker.org
Inadequate
Medium
Sufficient
Role model
Rating of pledge
Likelihood of achieving pledge with implemented policies
Likely
Unlikely
? Unclear
?
?
Not assessed
?
?
>
>
>
> BAU>Pledge Pledge > BAU