COP 21: UN Climate Change Conference: Hearing the public's voice

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COP21:

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Latest trends in public attitudes to taking action on climate change

UN Climate Change Conference:

Hearing the public’s voice

Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute, December 2015

2 COP21 | December 2015 | Version 1 | Internal Use Only

Introduction

What do the public feel about climate change and

will they support an agreement at COP21? These

slides present findings from research conducted by

Ipsos MORI between 2005 to 2015* including:

Levels of concern about the impacts of climate change, and beliefs around its causes - how have views changed over time?

Climate change action at COP21 and beyond - should action be taken, what are the trade offs and where does responsibility lie?

Helping at home vs. abroad - if action is taken, who should pay and how should the costs be shared across the developed and developing world?

Between 30th November and 11th December 2015,

50,000 members from 195 countries will meet in

Paris to discuss efforts on how to keep average

global temperature rises below 2°C.

This is the 21st meeting of the Conference of Parties

to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (COP21). The goal is to reach a

consensus on a legally binding agreement that will

enable member states to move into a more energy-

efficient and greenhouse gas-reducing economy.

COP21 is seen by many as crucial to combat

climate change; it is the first time in 20 years a

legally binding agreement will be discussed.

* The research has been collected from different research projects, and consists of data collected from various methodologies.


Main findings

The public’s take on COP21

From Ipsos MORI’s latest research, three key findings have emerged:

1. The British public are supportive of the government taking action on climate change

and the majority say we should sign up to a legally binding agreement at COP21.

2. However, the public is divided on whether climate change investment should be

prioritised at the expense of other priorities such as healthcare and education.

3. Finally, the public recognise that foreign aid is beneficial to the global economy,

although there is a slight preference for climate change investment to be spent

domestically, rather than in developing countries.

4

Do the public care?

1 Levels of public concern and belief

in climate change


A majority believe climate change

91

4 5

2005

% Yes

% No

% Don’t know Q. “As far as you know, do you personally think the world’s climate is changing, or not?”

Bases: 2005: 1,491 GB adults, aged 15 and over, 1st October – 6th November 2005; 2010: 1,822 GB adults, aged 15 and over, 6th January - 26th March 2010; 2013: 973 GB adults,

aged 15 and over, 8th - 26th March 2013; 2014: 1,002 GB adults aged 16 and over , 28th August – 31st October 2014. Methodology: face-to-face in-home.

78

15

6

2010

72

19

9

2013

is happening

88

6 6

2014


Though concern about climate change

has fallen over the last decade

Bases: 2005: 1,491 GB adults, aged 15 and over, 1st October – 6th November 2005; 2010: 1,822 GB adults, aged 15 and over, 6th January - 26th March 2010; 2013: 973 GB

adults, aged 15 and over, 8th - 26th March 2013; 2014: 1,002 GB adults aged 16 and over, 28th August - 31st October 2014. Methodology: face-to-face in-home.

2005

82% concerned

2010

71% concerned

2013

60% concerned

Q. “How concerned, if at all, are you about climate change, sometimes referred to as ‘global warming’?”

68% concerned

2014


Base: 13,492 adults across 13 countries (GB: 1,003), 5th July – 6th August 2012. Methodology: online.

86

99

97

97

94

92

91

91

86

81

78

77

69

67

14

1

3

3

6

8

9

9

14

19

22

23

31

33

All

Mexico

Turkey

Indonesia

Hong-Kong

Italy

Spain

Japan

Germany

Switzerland

Belgium

France

GB

US

And Brits are not as worried about impact of

climate change as many other countries

How worried are you

by the possible

consequences of

climate change?

% Worried

% Not worried

Q.


Economy NHS Environment Unemployment

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index. Base: c.1,000 GB adults aged 18+ per month. Data based on annual aggregates for each year, using January – November for 2015. Methodology: face-to-face in-home interviews.

Each month, Ipsos MORI asks the public to name the biggest issues they feel are affecting Britain. Concern for the

environment, including climate change, falls behind other issues such as immigration, the NHS and the economy

Immigration, health and economic issues

dominate British public’s concerns

Immigration

39%

5%

44%

30%

19%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 151998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Brits less convinced it is proven by science

though majority think it is

Which one of the two

following statements best

corresponds to your opinion?

% Climate change has

been

proven by science

% Climate change has not

been proven by science

77

95

89

86

85

83

82

79

76

74

69

65

63

58

13

5

11

14

15

17

18

21

24

26

31

35

37

42

All

Indonesia

Hong-Kong

Turkey

Mexico

Italy

Germany

Spain

Switzerland

Belgium

France

US

GB

Japan

Q.

Base: 13,492 adults across 13 countries (GB: 1,003), 5th July – 6th August 2012. Methodology: online.


Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (GB: 1,000), 3rd – 17th September 2013. Methodology: online.

A similar story for the role of human activity

% Agree

% Disagree

93

84

84

82

80

80

80

79

78

77

76

76

74

72

71

70

68

67

64

64

54

5

9

13

12

15

15

16

13

14

19

20

17

18

21

22

18

22

24

25

24

32

China

Argentina

Italy

Spain

Turkey

France

India

Brazil

Belgium

S Korea

S Africa

Total

Sweden

Germany

Canada

Japan

Poland

Russia

Australia

GB

US

The climate change

we are currently

seeing is largely

the result of

human activity?

To what extent do you

agree or disagree…

The British public are less convinced than many other countries that climate change is largely the result of human activity, although a

majority do believe that climate change is anthropogenic.

Q.


What does this mean

In recent years the British public

have become less concerned about

climate change, and are less

convinced of the science and a

human role in its cause than others

around the world.

1 in 3 Brits does not believe that

climate change is anthropogenic or

scientifically proven. So how do the

British public respond to a potential

agreement at COP21?

for COP21?

12

What should be

Public support for action

2 agreed at COP21?


Most agree that the UK Government should

Base: 1,168 UK online community members aged 18-75, 21st – 23rd October 2015. Methodology: online.

31

34

22

6 5 2

“The UK Government should

be taking a lead role in

global action on tackling

climate change.”


agree or disagree with the

following statement?

Q.

take a lead global role in tackling climate change

% Strongly agree

% Tend to agree

% Neither agree nor disagree

% Tend to disagree

% Strongly disagree

% Don’t know


And there’s broad support for the UK to sign

Base: 1,087 GB adults, aged 16-75, 27th November – 2nd December 2015. Methodology: online.

29

28

23

7

7 6

a legally binding agreement

“The UK Government should

sign up to a legally binding

agreement to combat climate

change at the Paris Conference.”



following statement?

Q. % Strongly agree

% Tend to agree


% Tend to disagree

% Strongly disagree

% Don’t know


Opinion is divided on whether climate investment

can be at the expense of other priorities


15

21

25

22

12

5

“Climate change should be one

of the top priorities for the UK

Government when considering

the budget for the next few

Q.

years, even if this means that

less money is spent on other

priorities such as education and

healthcare.”

% Strongly agree

% Tend to agree


% Tend to disagree

% Strongly disagree

% Don’t know


50% 50%

% The government should take whatever actions

necessary to deal with climate change, even if it

harms economic growth

% The government should take whatever actions

necessary to deal with climate change, but only if it

does not harm economic growth

% The government should only take actions to deal

with climate change if it also increases economic

growth

% The government should not take any action at all

to deal with climate change

% Don’t know

Though a majority favour climate action that

Q. “Which, if any, of the following best describes your view on how the UK government

should deal with climate change”

does not harm economic growth

23

46

13

6

12


17

What are the roles of businesses

3 Who should act?

and the government?


The Government vs. Business:

Base: 2,225 UK adults, aged 16-75, 21st – 23rd October 2015. Methodology: online.

both are seen as having a role to play

9

17

33

24

12 5

34

36

20

3 2 5

“I think climate

change is more of

an issue for

governments to

tackle rather



following statement:

Q.

than businesses.”

“Companies

across the UK

should do more to

reduce their

impact on



following statement:

Q.

climate change.”

% Strongly agree

% Tend to agree


% Tend to disagree

% Strongly disagree

% Don’t know

19

Helping at home

Public support for foreign aid

4 vs. helping abroad


A key goal for COP21 is to mobilise financial support to developing countries. But how is foreign aid perceived by the public? There is

recognition of the benefit of global aid, but three in four believe investment would be more worthwhile spent domestically.

Base: 12,709 across 16 countries (GB: 1,019), 24th July – 7th August. Methodology: online.

Public see economic benefit to foreign aid

though think money is better spent at home

62 71 77

50 62

77

Foreign aid is

beneficial to the

domestic economy

Foreign aid is

beneficial to the global

economy

Money is better spent

on domestic

programmes

% Global average % GB


which two or three, if any,

of the following areas do you

think the UK Government

should cut the most

money from?

Q.

Base: 1,021 GB adults aged 18 and over, 14th – 17th November 2015. Methodology; telephone.

59%

36%

19%

15%

8%

5%

4%

3%

3%

1%

1%

3%

5%

9%

Overseas Aid

Benefit payments

Police and armed forces

Transport

Local Authority services

Social Services

State Pensions

The NHS/Healthcare

Police

Schools

Care for the Elderly

Other

Don't know

None

55%

44%

28%

0%

10%

8%

3%

5%

4%

2%

1%

9%

7%

0%

Overseas Aid

Benefit payments

Police and armed forces

Transport

Local Authority services

Social Services

State Pensions

The NHS/Healthcare

Police

Schools

Care for the Elderly

Other

Don't know

None

2013 2015

And overseas aid is the area most commonly

suggested as in need of cutting

If the Government were to

make further cuts in spending,


50% 50%

% The UK government should put money into the

fund to help developing countries respond to

climate change

% The UK government should not put money into

this fund, and should only put money into helping

the UK respond to climate change

% The UK government should not put money into

responding to climate change, either in the UK or

in developing countries

% Don’t know

Public support idea of climate fund, but more

Q. “Which of these statements do you most agree with, if any?

want this spent in UK than in developing world


33

39

13

15


Summary

What does this mean for COP21

and the UK’s approach to

climate change?

• Despite lower concern around climate change than in

the past, the British public do show support for action

and want UK Government to play a leading role

• A majority agree the UK should sign up to a legally

binding agreement and more agree than disagree that

climate change should be a priority even if takes

spending away from other priority areas – a significant

minority even support taking action if it harms

economic growth

• Investment is wanted to help deal with climate change,

though slightly more place a priority for this money to

be spent on a domestic response, rather than helping

the developing world.

24

For more

Contact us

[email protected]

information

Matthew Evans

Joint Head of Environment Research

[email protected]

Antonia Dickman

Joint Head of Environment Research

mailto:[email protected]?subject=Ipsos MORI's Research for COP21

mailto:[email protected]?subject=Ipsos MORI's Research for COP21

COP 21: UN Climate Change Conference: Hearing the public's voice

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