Cooperative Research Program

Ingrid Guch

CoRP Symposium

August 2006

•NOAA’s Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) has teamed with academic partners across the country via four Cooperative Institutes and one Cooperative Center.

•CIRA @ Colorado State University•CIMSS @ University of Wisconsin•CIOSS @ Oregon State University•CICS @ University of Maryland•CREST – consortium of universities managed by CUNY

•Three branches of STAR are in the Cooperative Research Program and collocated with a Cooperative Institute

• The Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA/CSU• The Advanced Satellite Products Branch at CIMSS/UW• The Satellite Climate Studies Branch at CICS/UM

NOAA/NESDISCooperative Research Program

Desired Research Results for 2025

Dramatic Improvements in

Forecasting Extreme Events

Highly Skillful

Seasonal to Decadal Climate

Predictions

Improved Understanding of

Physical, Chemical,

Biological, and Societal

Interactions

National Suite of Air Quality Services

Ocean Exploration for

Humankind

Global Earth Observation System of Systems

MODIS Polar Winds in NCEP GFS

NCEP began using the MODIS polar winds product in the Global Forecast System (GFS) on November 29, 2005. Six other numerical weather prediction centers currently use the MODIS winds in operational forecast system: the ECMWF, NASA GMAO, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), U.S. Navy FNMOC, and the UK Met Office.

Improving Volcanic Cloud WarningsFrom the 1544 UTC VAAC message:

“REMARKS: WE HAVE RECEIVED A REPORT FROM NAVY AVIATION IN THE AREA INDICATING AN ERUPTION OF SANTA ANA TO FL460. THE ERUPTION CANNOT BE SEEN IN THE 1515Z IMAGE POSSBILY BECAUSE OF WEATHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ANY ASH NEAR FL460 WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST”

From the 1601 UTC VAAC message:

“REMARKS: THE ERUPTION IS NOW BELIEVED TO HAVE STARTED AT ABOUT 1400Z AND AN AREA PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO BE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW IDENTIFIED AS THICK ASH. A FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE”The automated Pavolonis et al. technique (JTECH) would have identified the Santa

Ana ash cloud in the 1445 UTC image (one of the first images capturing the eruption). This product would have likely helped the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) issue a more timely warning statement.

IR image

Ash product

SSMI Climate Time Series

• Monthly mean products derived from SSM/I since July 1987:– Precipitation rate and

frequency– Snow cover frequency– Sea-ice concentration– Oceanic total precipitable water– Oceanic cloud liquid water and

frequency– Ocean surface wind speed

• Products are archived at NCDC

• Used by NCEP/CPC, JMA, GEWEX/GPCP

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Neutral Phase

Chesapeake Bay Ecosystem Modeling

• Initiate development of fully integrated ecosystem model of Chesapeake Bay– Implement Regional Ocean

Modeling System for bay– Implement NCEP Weather

Research & Forecast (wRF) Modeling System for Bay

• Chair IOCCG Working Group to finalize “Why Ocean Color?” Report

• Upcoming Events– AGU Ocean Sciences

Meeting, Honolulu, HI February 20 – 24, 2006

SeaWiFS true-color image of Mid-Atlantic Regionfrom April 12, 1998.

Image provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and ORBIMAGE

Global Precipitation Climatology Project• GPCP is a project that is part of

the WCRP/GEWEX program– Comprises of various “centers”,

several of which are NOAA/Climate Program supported

• Current product suite (1979 – present)– Monthly mean 2.5°x2.5°

latitude/longitude– Merged satellite and gauge, error

estimates– Satellite components: microwave

and infrared estimates, error estimates

– Gauge analysis, error estimates– Intermediate analysis products,

e.g., merged satellite estimates– Daily 1 x 1 degree, Pentad

Global Precipitation Climatology Project

EUROPE

Data Processing Centres

GMS Meteosat GOES NOAA

JAPAN UNITED STATES

scattering(ocean)

Precipitation Data CentrePolar Satellite

emission(land+ocean)

NASA-GSFC NOAA-NESDIS

GPC Merge Development CentreMerged Global Analysis

Precipitation Data CentreGeostationary Satellite

Global TropicsNOAA - National Weather Service

NASA - GSF C

MW ComponentCAL/VAL Component

IR Component

Station Observations(CLIMAT, SYNOP National Collections)Gauge - Only Analysis

Global Precipitation Climatology Centre

DWD - GERMANY

Algorithm Intercompararison ProgramNew Observations

Surface Reference Data Centre

(EVAC - U.OK)

EUROPE

GPCPGPCP

RAMM / CIRA TROPICAL CYCLONE IR ARCHIVE-- IR images, 640 x 480 with 4 km resolution in Mercator projection

-- began in 1998 with goal of documenting entire hurricane life cycles at 30-min interval

-- all Atlantic hurricanes since 1995, all named storms since 1996

-- all eastern Pacific named storms since 1997

-- automated, global coverage since late 2004, with 2 complete SH seasons

-- as of 15 March 2006:

464 tropical cyclones

125,000+ images

APPLICATIONS:

- improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

- inner core wind algorithm for the CIRA/RAMM tropical cyclone satellite surface wind analysis

- objective wind radii estimates

- long period animations and TC comparison studies

- center relative average images

- development on improved Objective Dvorak Technique intensity estimates

< Atlantic hurricanes 4-km X 2 zoom 4-km: NWPac, EPac, > SPac, NIO, SIO

GOES-R ABI Product Development

• New product development for GOES-R Risk Reduction• Initial focus on fog/stratus and

dust detection products• Thee-color techniques• Utilizing MODIS and MSG data

• Web-based demonstration planned• Quasi-operational forum

Thee-Color Product Name

Red component

Green component

Blue component

MSG “natural” color product

1.6 µm 0.86 µm 0.6 µm

MSG “day snow-fog” product

0.8 µm* 1.6 µm* 3.9 µm (solar/reflected

part only)*

Modified thee-color fog/stratus

product

0.6 µm albedo 1.6 µm albedo Shortwave (3.9 µm) albedo

Operational and near-operational satellites sensors supportedAssume 1 Primary POES AM, 1 Backup POES AM, 1 Primary POES PM, 1 Backup POES PM, 1 GOES East, 1

GOES West

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1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2020

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GOES-R

GOES N/P

GOES I/M

GOES-H

NPOESS

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NOAA N/N'

NOAA KLM

NOAA-G/H/I/J

Earth Observing Satellites Launched/Planned as of July 2006

59

22

64

3

3

8

7

2

5

5

8

0

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1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009

International NASA NOAA USGS

Expected Data Growth