Energy Huntsville Opportunity Report August 2012 Steve Reed [email protected] 256.520.8100.
CoolTech Club with Steve Jurvetson
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Transcript of CoolTech Club with Steve Jurvetson
Entrepreneurship Overview
• More innova.on now than ever
• Globaliza.on • Entrepreneurs are everywhere • Customers and partners
• Network Effects
Tech Innovation Grows Exponentially
Source: Ray Kurzweil
Molecular Electronics
Year
Logarithmic Plot
Global Network Effects Further Accelera.ng Change
Users
0!
2!
4!
6!
8!
10!
12!
14!
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18!
Millions!
Months from First Users
THEME: Switching Atoms for Bits Digital Presence Tools Soar as Flights are Grounded
Photo courtesy of Rebekka Guoleifsdottir
During the 5 days, Skype users made over 20 million more video call minutes than normal The same time as 42,000 flights from London to NYC
Over 12 billion Skype-to-Skype calls per month 36% include Video 50x more video minutes than YouTube uploads
THEME: Switching Atoms for Bits P2P versus Centralized Servers
• A search engine without servers or web crawlers • Uses idle cycles in the cloud
• Compared to 30,000 servers • 700K fewer lbs of CO2/day • Like removing 35K cars from the road
• Solar • Wind • Hydro • Geothermal
• Smart Grid • Meter • Transmission
• Biochemical • Thermochemical
• LighGng • HVAC • TransportaGon • Bldg Materials
• BaKery • Ultracap • Fuel Cell
• Water • Agriculture • PesGcides • Waste • Emissions
DFJ Cleantech Portfolio GENERATION DISTRIBUTION STORAGE EFFICIENCY FUELS AND
CHEMICALS RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT
China today…
Cost $200 - 450 Speed 16-25 mph Power 350-750 W (1 hp) Range 20-40 miles Efficiency 35-45 miles/kWh
Sou
rce:
Jon
atha
n W
einh
ert (
Che
vron
)
Sources: Jonathan Weinert (Chevron), E-bikes: Jamerson and Benjamin “Electric Bike World Report (2007 edition)”, Passenger cars: China Bureau of Statistics, Motorcycles: Ohara, Honda Annual Report, Feng An (2010), iCET, Pike Research (2010)
First commercial e-bikes launched (Shanghai, Crane)
Gasoline scooters banned in several cities, 53K scrapped in Shanghai
E2W sales surge after SARS outbreak
China passes law granting E2Ws right to bike lanes
Beijing repeals ban on e-bikes, Guangzhou bans all motorized two-wheelers
Best selling vehicle in China…
$ / 1
00km
Sources: Jonathan Weinert (Chevron), Interviews with Shanghai E2W and motorcycle retailers. Assumptions: 2007$, fuel economy: e-bike=15Wh/km, scooter=30km/l, compact car 10km/l. Fuel cost: gasoline cost=4.5RMB/l, electricity cost=0.86RMB/kWh, bus fare=2RMB/trip. Vehicle lifetime: bicycle and e-bike=7yr, scooter and motorcycle=10yr, car=15yrs.
TCO for China
Source: Feng An (2010), Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation
Made in China – Low Speed EVs
Accelera.ng Change….not Just IT
Computation
Storage
Networking
Evolution
Proteins crystallized
Imaging resolution
Genes mapped
Dickerson’s Law: Known 3D Protein Structures
Green, Clean Machine – Code Comes Alive
Pharmaceuticals
Chemicals
Biofuels
T A G C
Sunlight
Plant Biomass
CO2
DNA Synthesizer
Synthetic Chromosome
+90% of all Organic Chemicals come from Petroleum and Natural Gas
Danny Hillis, The Pattern on the Stone
“The greatest achievement of our technology may well be the creation of tools that allow us to go beyond engineering – that allow us to create more than we can understand.”
Beyond Engineering
“Quantum computers have the potential to solve problems that would take a classical computer longer than the age of the universe.”
— Professor David Deutsch, Oxford
Black Swan in Computing?
Efficiency Summary
• Accelera.ng Technological Change
-‐ Interdisciplinary Renaissance
-‐ IT innervates trillion dollar markets
-‐ Perpetual driver of disrup.on ⇒ Virtuous cycle for entrepreneurs ⇒ a great .me to build new companies