Cook - Framework for adaptation and mitigation
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Transcript of Cook - Framework for adaptation and mitigation
Framework for Adapta/on and Mi/ga/on
Simon Cook, Andy Jarvis, Charlo=e Lau,
Julian Ramirez
[[SELECTED SLIDES]]
How /mes have changed 2002
IPCC vision s/ll a ma=er of debate: Economist leader: ‘GCC may not be so bad because: (a) Some places are just too darn cold and (b) People like to go to warm places for holiday’
Adapta/on seen as a [agricultural] technical fix
CGIAR ac/vi/es focussed on applying exis/ng technologies to a new problem
Concepts of resilience or SESs a li=le raw
No clarity about ‘who to talk to?’
2010
Adapta/on understood as vital Mul/-‐disciplinarity accepted as
‘normal’ Acceptance of need to
understand socio-‐ecological systems
S/ll no clarity : ‘who to talk to?’
Framework for Adapta/on
A. Hazard How much clearer is the change?
B. Adapta/on What are the types of op/ons open to agriculture ?
C. Mi/ga/on What role mi/ga/on?
D. Impediments If it’s such a great idea, how come people don’t adapt?
E. Framework for targe/ng ac/on Looking for specific behaviours, ins/tu/ons, ac/ons...
A Hazard
A Hazard
A Hazard
A Hazard
A Hazard
A Hazard
A Hazard
A Hazard
A Hazard
A Hazard
A Hazard
A Hazard
A. Hazard: Temperature
A. Hazard: Temperature
Impact summary • IGP
– Current situa/on • “Bread basket” of South Asia, emphasis on alterna/ng wheat-‐rice systems • Overexploita/on and pollu/on of water resources, esp. groundwater • Main water sources = SW monsoon and Himalayan rivers • Strong contrast between ins/tu/onally-‐supported, highly-‐produc/ve, drought-‐
threatened West IGP and low-‐input, less-‐produc/ve, flood-‐prone East IGP – Projected changes
• Increased temperatures will lead to crop losses, especially for dominant wheat crop • Some uncertainty/disagreement re: precipita/on, but rainfall events will likely become
more extreme – means flooding during monsoons, maybe drought during winter • Reducing Himalayan glaciers – water stress long-‐term
– Adapta/on Pathways? • Addressing the yield gap in Eastern IGP may be key to mee/ng future regional food
demand • Water: Should move towards regula/on of groundwater, agreements over Indus water,
and adapta/on of Zero Till and other water conserva/on measures.
• West Africa – Current situa/on
• Low produc/vity • Widespread land degrada/on • Water stress • Drama/c fluctua/ons in rainfall over mul/-‐decadal /me scales, ENSO events
– Projected changes • Robust predic/ons re: temperature rise • BUT precipita/on models are very uncertain – disagreement on whether WA will be generally we=er or drier, though some consensus that extremes will increase
• Sea level rises will harm coastal agriculture • Shorter growing periods in the Sahel
• East Africa – Current situa/on
• Extreme heterogeneity of climate, topography, agro-‐ecosytems, livelihoods and environmental challenges
• Rainfall is rela/vely predictable • (Rainfed) freshwater supply already a poli/cal hot potato
– Projected changes • No full consensus re: precipita/on, though majority say rainfall will increase and become more extreme
• Glaciers will melt – water stress on fisheries, wetlands, shallow rivers • Higher temp + precip means highland regions will experience both higher incidence of malaria, AND be=er suitability (longer growing seasons, higher yield), esp. of cereals
• But overall, region-‐wide food produc/on losses (excep/on may be Kenya)
-‐25.00
-‐20.00
-‐15.00
-‐10.00
-‐5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
Ethiopia Kenya Niger Senegal
Crop
Loss/Gain
Countries
GCC Crop Impacts for African Countries PRELIMINARY RESULTS
Oats
Potato
Bean, Common
Wheat, common
Barley
Maize
Cacao
Sorghum (low al/tude)
Perennial soybean
-‐25.00
-‐20.00
-‐15.00
-‐10.00
-‐5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
Burkina Faso Ghana Mali Tanzania Uganda
Crop
Loss/Gain
Countries
GCC Crop Impacts for African Countries
Oats
Potato
Bean, Common
Wheat, common
Barley
Maize
Cacao
Sorghum (low al/tude)
Perennial soybean
-‐30.00
-‐20.00
-‐10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
Crop
Loss/Gain
States
GCC Crop Impacts for "IGP" Countries
Oats
Potato
Bean, Common
Wheat, common
Barley
Maize
Cacao
Sorghum (low al/tude)
Perennial soybean
-‐40.00
-‐30.00
-‐20.00
-‐10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
Crop
Loss/Gain
States
GCC Crop Impacts for "RIN" States
Oats
Potato
Bean, Common
Wheat, common
Barley
Maize
Perennial soybean
Cacao
Sorghum (low al/tude)
B Adapta/on
Adapta/on process in general
/me
Accept need for change
Assess exis/ng path
Perceive changed future
Change
In the ideal world In prac/ce
Myopia
Uncertainty
Disagreement
Incapacity
B. Adapta/on – basic op/ons
Risk avoidance
• Change element – Heat, drought tolerant crops,
livestock
• Change system – Phasing, /ming
• Move – Upslope – Migrate
Risk management
• Engineer – Irriga/on, flood protec/on
• Hedging – Spread / reduce investment
• Risk sharing – Insurance
C Mi/ga/on -‐ Adapta/on
Risk management
Poten&al examples: ecosystem service payments – risk manages by offering immediate financial capital/relief, mi&gates by reducing emissions, and adapts by crea&ng incen&ves/opportuni&es to diversity away from just agriculture
Progressive adaptaGon
MiGgaGon
CASE 1: Transi/on (win-‐win)
Mi/ga/on -‐ Adapta/on
Risk management
(coping) ?
Example: subsidies that would lower emissions and give farmers extra financial capital to invest in higher produc&on (risk management and mi&ga&on, but not significant long-‐term adap&on strategy)
Progressive adaptaGon
(transforma/onal change)
CASE 2: Disjointed adapta/on (win-‐win)
Mi/ga/on -‐ Adapta/on
Risk management (coping) Progressive adaptaGon
(transforma/ve change)
MiGgaGon
Trade-‐offs
?
e.g.) Taxing fer&lizers and pes&cides –mi&gates at farmer’s cost
Trade-‐offs e.g.) Occupa&onal change from agricultural to industrial work– farmer “adapts” at poten&al cost to environment
CASE 3: Disjointed adapta/on (no win-‐win)
D Impediments to change
• Uncertainty – Ignorance: ‘Didn’t know you cared’ – Variability: ‘Knew you cared, but not how much’
• Cogni/ve disjoint – ‘Not my problem’
• Lack of mo/ve – ‘Maybe my problem, put it with the others..’
• Lack of capacity – ‘I know and I care, but nothing I can do’
D Impediments to change
• Uncertainty – Temporal, metric, structural uncertainty
• Cogni/ve disjoint – Transla/onal uncertain/es (law poli/cs science farming family
• Lack of mo/ve – Who really values the ecosystem services?
Gross National Income
Agriculture contribution to GDP (%)
Most African basins here
Capacity to adapt
Gross National Income
Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) ....Problems...
Gross National Income
Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) ... Solu/ons
Basics need
Meeting urgent demand growth Emerging need for
sustainability
Increasing Role for Institutions Providing basics
Protecting existing support Invest in agricultural basics
Big invest in agric. Resource-sharing & protection
Developing pathways out of farming
Benefit-sharing (trading) Demand management
Supply-chain management
E. Framework
• On the basis of exis/ng knowledge of likely impacts.....
• Look for behaviours that inhibit/support change -‐a=ributable to GCC
• Scan for insGtuGons – the people doing the changing
• Look for ‘instruments’ of change-‐ things that will accelerate adapta/on & mi/ga/on – Insight, technologies, policy, law...
• Iden/fy how science will support /improve the instruments
E. Framework: Iden/fying targets
ProblemaGc behaviours
InsGtuGons Instruments Science
Uncertainty
Cogni/ve problems
Lack of mo/ve for change
Lack of capacity
E. Framework: Iden/fying targets
ProblemaGc behaviours
InsGtuGons Instruments Science
Uncertainty Ignorance
Cannot manage variability
Families
Farmer organiza/ons
Supply chain actors
Municipali/es
Ministries
Norms
Regula/ons
Policy (e.g. food, water security) Law
Valua/on
Micro-‐finance Micro-‐ins
Supply chains
Situa/on analysis
Scenario analysis
Technology
System analysis/design
Cogni/ve problems
Unable to agree
Lack of mo/ve for change
Short-‐termism
Local only
Lack of capacity Can’t invest Can’t organize
E. Framework: Iden/fying targets
ProblemaGc behaviours
InsGtuGons Instruments Science
Uncertainty Ignorance
Cannot manage variability
Families
Farmer organiza/ons
Supply chain actors
Municipali/es
Ministries
Norms
Regula/ons
Policy (e.g. food, water security) Law
Valua/on
Micro-‐finance Micro-‐ins
Supply chains
Situa/on analysis
Scenario analysis
Technology
System analysis/design
Cogni/ve problems
Unable to agree
Lack of mo/ve for change
Short-‐termism
Local only
Lack of capacity Can’t invest Can’t organize
Linking components to enable Ecosystem services
Final word: Why a framework is needed • CP Water and food
– Started 2002. • Big fanfare, simple story ‘More crop per drop’. • Funding shornall; strategic work suspended. Many disconnected projects.
– 2003/4 CGIAR Science Council: ‘Get focus’ – 2004/5 Strategic research (BFPs) ini/ated – 2007 Phase II planned – 2009 BFPs completed – 2010 Water & Soil MP proposed. CPWF not leading it.
• Lessons?