How Large-Scale Flows in the Solar Convection Zone May Influence Solar Activity
Convection: from the large-scale waves to the small-scale ......ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics...
Transcript of Convection: from the large-scale waves to the small-scale ......ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics...
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Slide 1ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Convection: from the large-scale waves to
the small-scale features
Peter Bechtold with thanks to
L. Magnusson, S. Malardel, M. Herman (NMexico Tech), King-Fai
Li (Caltech), F. Vâna, P. Lopez, F. Prates, F. Li,
Physics and Numerics section, Gabor+Deborah+Paul, Metops
section, management and many colleagues
and for projects with T. Komori, Shaocheng Xie, N. Semane, A.
Subramanian
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Slide 2ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
CAPE and Shear as useful predictors
Ivan TsvonetzkyDaily Report
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Slide 3ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
CAPE’s useful predictors for convection
parametrization?
Montcrieff and Miller (1976) defined LCAPE as part of Bernoulli integral
Yano and Bechtold in rev. (2015)
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Slide 4ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Conservation of enthalpy
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Slide 5ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Normalised convective and stratiform
heating profiles
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Slide 6ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
The global circulation and its modes (waves)
Analytical: solve shallow water equations
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Slide 7ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Wavenumber frequency Diagrams of OLR
ECMWF Analysis
(2008-2013)
Cy40r1 6 years
software courtesy Michael Herman (New Mexico Institute)
(all spectra have been divided by their own= smoothed background)
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Slide 8ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Monitoring and real time prediction of waves
Forecast base time
Analysis Forecast
following Wheeler and Weickmann (2001, MWR), courtesy software M. Herman
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Slide 9ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Rossby & MJO 5.3.2015-16.3 2015
Forecast base time 2015 03 09
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Slide 10ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Kelvin Rossby & MJO 5.3.2015-16.3 2015
Forecast base time 2015 03 09
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Slide 11ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Normal mode projection and filtering
• First derived by Kasahara and Puri (1981), Tanaka (1985)
• Žagar et al. (2009,2011-2013) and Žagar et al. (2014,2015) applied it to EC MWF system for IG and Rossby modes and made available a general software
• Principle is similar to the analytical solutions to shallow water equations:
o Requires U ,V, Z and stability
o Solve for vertical structure equation on model levels, then solve horizontal wave equation (Fourier (longitude) and Legendre (latitude) polynomials
o IG and Rossby modes are eigen solutions
Nota: In contrast to the wavenumber-frequency filtering the projection is done for each time step (output) separately, a time series can be recovered by concatenating, the frequencies are ‘hidden’ in the eigen solutions
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Slide 12ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Normal mode projection and filtering
850 hPa
Žagar et al. (Geosc. Mod. Dev. 2015)
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Slide 13ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Kelvin waves: Precip, CIN, PBL entropy in
linear model, reanalysis and IFS long integrat.
M Herman, Ž. Fuchs, D. Raymond, P. Bechtold, JAS 2015 in rev.
Raymond&Fuchs 2007 Linear Model
Precip CIN PBL entropy
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Slide 14ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Kelvin waves: vertical structure
see also G. Shutts ( 2006, Dyn. Atmos. Oc.)
At z~10 km, warm anomaly
and convective heating are
in phase, leading to :
o the conversion of
potential in kinetic energy
= αω
o The generation of
potential energy = N Q
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Slide 15ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Effective resolution (S. Malardel & N. Wedi)
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Slide 16ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Scale dependent APE – KE analysis
and non-linear spectral transfer in IFS
following Augier and Lindborg (2013)
? ?
Production/FluxConversion A->K
/lT l
W m-2
downup
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Slide 17ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Spectra and transfer with and without
parametrized deep convection
TL1279 =16 km with
and without deep
TL4000=5 km with and
without deep
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Slide 18ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
The ‘mass flux’ flux approximation
area fraction Ensemble meanspeed
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Slide 19ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Resolution scaling
10 km
5 km
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Slide 20ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Cloud base mass flux global T1279
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Slide 21ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
DWD ICON with 13 to 3.25 km nesting
convective precip 17.6.2012+72h
Guenther Zaengl
noisy, too strong smooth
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Slide 22ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Cy42r1 TCo1279 9 km
Example of (convective) precipitation forecast and resolution
Oper Cy41r1 Tl1279 16 kmObs 9 Aug 2015
Cy42r1 TCo1999 5 kmCy42r1 TCo1279 9 km mfl scale
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Slide 23ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Example of convective precipitation forecast and resolution
Cy42r1 Tco1999 no deep
Cy42r1 TCo1999 5 km scaled Mfl
Obs 9 Aug 2015
Cy42r1 TCo1999 5 km
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Slide 24ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Africa using NOAA FEWS rainfall estimate
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Slide 25ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Africa using NOAA FEWS rainfall estimate
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Slide 26ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Tropical t+12h wind errors against oper. analysis
rmse=1.61 m/s
rmse=1.24 m/s
rmse=1.60 m/s
rmse=1.23 m/s
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Slide 27ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Recent improvements: diurnal cycle
Evolution of total heating profile -radiation
congestus
Turbulent heat
flux
Shallow
convection
Deep
convection
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Slide 28ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
JJA 2011-2012
Diurnal cycle: JJA more realistic since Nov 2013
NEXRAD data Philippe Lopez
Bechtold et al., 2014, J. Atmos. Sci.
And since? And in HRES 16 km ?
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Slide 29ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
2T 12 UTC June-July 2012 T511
2T 18 UTC
2D 12 UTC
2D 18 UTC
Diurnal cycle and 2T/2D error reduction:
MABS(Exp)-MABS(CTL) [K] own analysis
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Slide 30ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Examples of recent improvements:
detrainment/microphys
E-suite 41r1
O-suite 40r1
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Slide 31ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
corresponding Aircraft statistics
E-suite 41r1O-suite 40r1
Michael Rennie
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Slide 32ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
far too deep cyclone forecast could be addressed with increasing parcel perturbation in convection (blue curve) –also it is shown that it is a model (fc) problem and not due to initial conditions
Sensitivity of cyclone depth to parcel perturbations
in convection: Cyclone Neoguri
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Slide 33ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Winter convection: Lake effect and advection
spotted by Ivan Tsvonetky and Richard Forbes
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Slide 34ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Winter convection: sensitivity studies
Obs42r1 TCo1279
42r1 TCo1279
Conv snow detrOper
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Slide 35ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Summary & Plans
Convection-large scale feedback: ‘ok’, some lack in early nighttime convection, organization and momentum transfer remains difficult
Very high resolution: Could do 5 km today with big enough computer!!! issues: mass flux scaling, ‘environmental values’? – mass source in dynamics was not successful (but Kuell,
Gassmann Bott (2007) did), work by Gerard (2015), Park (2014), Arakawa
and Wu (2013)
Microphysics (ice phase + advection of snow) – but always veeery tedious when changing heating profiles
more efficient coupling of shallow convection, turbulent diffusion and clouds (Irina S.+Maike A.+Richard F.), similar to Bretherton and Park
(2008) based on M Koehler, Ahlgrimm, Beljaars (2011)
Continue improving monthly and seasonal forecast range (reduce syst.
errors, SPPT/SPPP – momentum forcing)
non-linear convection close to linearised version in data assimilation
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Slide 36ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Cy42r1 Tco1999 no deep
Cy42r1 TCo1999 5 km scaled 0.8
Obs 9 Aug 2015
Cy42r1 TCo1999 5 km scaled 0.3
Europe TCo1999 sensitivity to scaling factor
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Slide 37ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Africa TCo1999 sensitivity to scaling factor
0.8 0.3
No deepObs
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Slide 38ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Diurnal cycle of convection and
daytime dry bias
00 UTC12 UTC
summer daytime dry bias
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Slide 39ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Sensitivity of cyclone depth to parcel perturbations
in convection: Cyclone Neoguri
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Slide 40ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
30 km
26 356time (hours)
0
At z~10 km, warm anomaly and convective heating are in
phase, leading to :
o the conversion of potential in kinetic energy = αω
o The generation of potential energy = N Q
Glenn Shutts (presented at Martin Miller symposium, Jan 2011)
‘Kelvin’ waves: T anomaly for k=10 and
convective heating
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Slide 41ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
YOTC Momentum fluxes resolved & parametrised
Method: minus
time mean state
T799
T159
resolved parametrised
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Slide 42ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
from T799 Cy33r1
during
exponential
Power law
SSMI is from 1D-Var
Some statistical properties of convection: Pdfs
of instant. Rain rates
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Slide 43ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
What happens to T,q dynamics balance when switch off deep
T
Tq
Conv + strat dynamics
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Slide 44ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
Normal mode projection and filtering
200 hPa
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Slide 45ECMWF 2015 Seminar Model Physics
And since? JJA in HRES Tl1279 16 km ?
NEXRAD data Philippe Lopez