Control of State Governments 2008-2009- NCSL
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Transcript of Control of State Governments 2008-2009- NCSL
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2008 State2008 State
Legislative ElectionsLegislative Elections
November 7, 2008November 7, 2008
Tim StoreyNational Conference of State Legislatures
ote
State
2008V
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State Elections 2008State Elections 2008
House Only--2
No 2008 Elections--6
Governor Election--11
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State LegislativeState Legislative
Party ControlParty ControlPrePre--Election 2008Election 2008
Democrat-23
Split-12
Nonpartisan
Republican-14
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Altered States 2008Altered States 2008
Now Democratic
Now Republican
Now Divided
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----DemocraticDemocratic
Control Since ReconstructionControl Since Reconstruction
UnUn--AlteredAltered
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State LegislaturesState Legislatures
PostPost--Election 2008Election 2008
Democrat-27
Split-8
Nonpartisan
Republican-14
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Party Control ShiftsParty Control Shifts20082008Democratic Gains
Delaware House
Nevada Senate
New York SenateOhio House
Wisconsin Assembly
Republican Gains
Montana SenateOklahoma Senate
Tennessee House
Tennessee Senate
Tied
Alaska SenateAlaska SenateUndecidedUndecided
Montana House-likely 50-50
Texas House 76 R- 74 D
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1938
Legislative Seats Held byLegislative Seats Held by
Party 1938Party 193820082008
1952
1974
1994
2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%80%
90%
100%
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Seat Changes by RegionSeat Changes by Region
2006200620082008
East +38 Democrat
Midwest +41 Democrat
South +6 Republican
West +25 Democrat
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Democratic Share of Seats in theSouth 1938 - 2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1938 1958 1978 1998
94%
53.5 %
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Governor's PartyGovernor's Party
PostPost--Election 2008Election 2008
Democrat-29
Republican-21
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State GovernmentState Government
PostPost--Election 2008Election 2008
Democrat-17
Split-24
Nonpartisan
Republican-8
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CoattailsCoattails ---- Fate of White House Winner inFate of White House Winner in
Legislatures in Presidential Election YearLegislatures in Presidential Election Year
-400
-300-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1
940
1
944
1
948
1
952
1
956
1
960
1
964
1
968
1
972
1
976
1
980
1
984
1
988
1
992
1
996
2
000
2
004
2
008
Seats Gained or Lost
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Reverse CoattailsReverse Coattails
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Fate of President's Party inFate of President's Party in
Legislatures in MidLegislatures in Mid--Term ElectionsTerm Elections
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
1
942
1
950
1
958
1
966
1
974
1
982
1
990
1
998
2
006
Seats Gained or Lost
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Projected Gains/Losses AfterProjected Gains/Losses After
2010 Reapportionment2010 Reapportionment
+2
+2+1
-1
-1
-1
-1-1 -1
-1
-1-2
-1-2
+4
+1
+1
+1
+1
-1 +1
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1998
2000
2002
2004
2007
Percentage of WomenPercentage of Women
Legislators 1971 to 2009Legislators 1971 to 2009
2009
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Leadership ChangesLeadership Changes
Nearly One-Third of Leaders will be Newto the Job in January--Surprise Losses:
Delaware Speaker Terry Spence (R) Utah Speaker Greg Curtis (R) Iowa Senate President Pro Tem Jeff Danielson (D) Rhode Island Senate President Joseph
Montalbano (D).
Bipartisan Coalition Leadership in AlaskaSenate and Louisiana House
Colorado first state ever to be led by twoAfrican-American presiding officers
Senate President Peter Groff House Speaker Terrance Carroll
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Final ObservationsFinal ObservationsDemocrats made gains although they
were limited due to success in 2006.Republicans can claim some victories--
they gained some key chambers andlosses could have been worse.
Turnover will be about average andmaybe less than 20%.
Now the hard work begins.
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Thank You !Thank You !
Tim StoreyNational Conference of State Legislatures
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State
2008V