ICT Innovations in risk-informed

early warning systems

Contributions through the

ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund

for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness

1. Leveraged ESCAP’s comparative advantages

2. Regional benefits (standards, sharing of experience)

3. Filled gaps in early warning

4. Built institutional capacity of member States

5. Created regional architecture of multi-hazard early warning

ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund

for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness

“A Decade Reducing Tsunami Risk in Asia-Pacific”

44%

25%

19%

12%

Thematic Areas of Trust-Fund Projects 2005-2015:

$15 million

Early Warning

Communication

Risk Knowledge

Response (SOP)

#1 Innovation

End-to-end tsunami early warning services

to low capacity, high risk countries

-

Scenario based risk informed tsunami early

warning services

Architecture of Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) Trust Fund Contributions - RIMES 24x7 operations for underserved countries

National projects , Tsunami SOPs, Capacity development activitiesCourtesy of USAID

Indian Ocean Tsunami

Warning System Australia:

National

System

Indonesia:

National

System

India:

National

System

RIMES

IOTWS

Investment

US$300 M;

US$90 annual

operating cost

ESCAP

addresses

capacity gaps in

Maldives, Sri

Lanka, Myanmar,

…

Enhancing Coastal Hazard Early Warning and Response:

Tools and Institutional Strengthening

�INSPIRE, a computer-based tsunami propagation and inundation risk assessment tool

�ESCAPE, a computer-based evacuation mapping tool

� Tsunami tool for hazard and risk assessment

� Recommended to use worst case scenarios to guide evacuation mapping

INSPIREInternet based Simulation Platform for Inundation and Risk Evaluation

INSPIREInternet based Simulation Platform for Inundation and Risk Evaluation

� Estimated Casualties

� Estimated Building Damage

ESCAPEEvaluation System for Computing Accessibility and Planning Evacuation

� Land cover

� Slope

� Critical facilities

� Population density

� Age and gender

Evacuation basin and direction to shelters

Required evacuation time

#2 Innovation

Operationalizing Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS)

through Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), an international standard,

for exchanging emergency alerts that allows a consistent alert

message to be disseminated simultaneously over many different

communications systems.

CAP on a MAPImproving Institutional Responsiveness to Coastal Hazards through

Multi-Agency Situational Awareness

Myanmar Philippines Maldives

PAGASA

PHIVOLCS BULLETIN

(PDF)

Email

SMS

WEB

MOBILE APP

Free Mobile

Alert Act

The following originate and relay architecture has been tested and proven

CAP on a MAP in the PhilippinesSuper Typhoon Haima (Lawin) SAMBRO Bulletin

CAP on a MAP in MyanmarAlerts from the Unnamed Cyclone affecting Myanmar (Oct 2016)

#3 Innovation

Impact-based forecasting for slow-onset

disasters

Challenges of Impact based

forecasts: Real time scenarios

Risk

ScenariosTrigger

Probabilistic

Forecast

Impact

Outlook

• Forecast Component of different lead time

• ECMWF

– Seasonal and Monthly outlooks

– Monthly update

– 10 days – Pentad (averaged condition over 5 days)

• RIMES WRF model

– 3 days high resolution forecast

• Parameters:

– rainfall

– temperature (Tmax, Tmin)

– wind speed and direction

– humidity

SESAME

Specialized Expert System for Agro-Meteorological Early Warning for Climate Resilient Agriculture

SESAME

Specialized Expert System for Agro-Meteorological Early Warning for Climate Resilient Agriculture

• Dynamic Crop information panel for expert users

• Weather bulletins for Pentads, monthly and seasonal outlooks

• Real time verification of forecast products

• Validation of information at different levels:

NHMS

�

Agro-met staff

�

Extension Worker

�

Farmer

SESAME

Specialized Expert System for Agro-Meteorological Early Warning for Climate Resilient Agriculture

• Dissemination of information

– Email service

– SMS service, through gateways

– Fax service

• Mobile application

– Android version - Beta

SMS Alert!

Temp will rise by 3 deg C above Threshold in next 24 hrs.

“PROTECT YOUR GRAPES FROM EXCESSIVE HEAT”

SMS

Thank you

Sanjay K Srivastava,

Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction

United Nations Economic and Social Commission

for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok

srivastavas@un.org