Contribution Analysis Toolkit Release Launch!...Contribution Analysis Toolkit Release Launch! July...
Transcript of Contribution Analysis Toolkit Release Launch!...Contribution Analysis Toolkit Release Launch! July...
Contribution Analysis Toolkit
Release Launch!
July 18, 2018
Housekeeping
• Webinar is Being Recorded
– Will Be Posted with Other Toolkit Materials
• Q&A
– Use the Question Panel, we’ll have 20 min for
Q&A at the end.
– Written answers to questions will also be
posted
Department of Energy Cities-LEAPCities Leading through Energy Analysis and
Planning
Agenda
• Overview of the problem
• What the tool does, and what you need to use it
• Results from Project Steering Committee
• How to get the toolkit
• Not Discussing the details of how it works today
The Challenge of Inventory Progress
Tracking
What’s Influencing Changes
What is the “Contribution” of Each
Factor?
• Inventory Inputs– Emissions Factors, Fuel Economy
• Operating Conditions– Weather, Economic Environment
• What is in the community– Population, Building Area
• Local Action
Steering Committee:– King County, WA– Bellevue, WA– Santa Monica, CA– Aspen, CO– Metro Washington Council of Governments– Delaware Valley Regional Planning Council
Additional Pilot Communities– Hayward, CA– Nashville TN– Cleveland, OH– Denver, CO– Miami-Dade County, FL
– Durham, NC– Olympia, WA– Shoreline, WA– Ashland, OR
The Project: Develop Methods & Test
Spreadsheet Tool
Contribution Analysis Accounts for:
• Change to Inventory Inputs– Separates the relative impact of Emissions Factor and
Total Activity
• Change to Operating Conditions– Determine relationship between weather and city
performance to account for change
• Change to what’s in the Community– Simple “per-capita”, “per-employment” differences
• Local Action– Subtract the remainder
Basic Data Needs
• Two inventories
– Consistent Methods
• Demographic data (federal sources):– # of Households,
– Commercial floor area or employment,
– GDP/person
Data Needs to Account for Weather
• Develop relationship between weather and community energy use with regression techniques– Similar to what you may have done with building
weather normalization
• Need monthly electricity, natural gas usage– DOE Developing Data Source
• Daily weather—available from National Climate Data Center
Local Programs
• Need to have already performed an
evaluation of the action
• Limit the analysis to the time period
between inventories
• The tool puts the reductions in the overall
framework
Current Limitations
• Designed to work with the data that is typically available for practitioners
• Factors where needed data are not generally available– GDP & Energy Use
– Detailed building characteristics
– Changing plug loads and EVs
• These factors need qualitative interpretations
Steering Committee Results
Jennifer Ewing, Environmental Stewardship Program ManagerCity of Bellevue, WA
Analyzing Drivers of Change in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories
Bellevue, Washington
• Population = 140,000
• Jobs = 140,000
Bellevue Environmental Stewardship Program
Mobility & Land Use
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Energy & Water
Materials Management & Waste
Ecosystems & Open Spaces
Plan includes:• 17 Sustainability Indicators• 57 Actions
Bellevue Emissions by Sector
Community and Per Capita Emissions: What is Driving the Changes?
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2006 – 2017 Trends:• -7% total emissions• -23% per capita• 20% Population growth14.7
14.0
12.711.9
13.112.8
11.1
11.4
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2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Emis
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Other
Industrial Energy
Residential Energy
Commercial Energy
Transportation
Solid Waste
MTCO2e per capita
Bellevue Contribution Analysis, 2011-2017
Bellevue Contribution Analysis, 2011-2017Detailed Chart
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Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
Regional GHG Goals and Trends
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Metropolitan Washington GHG Trends
10% reduction in GHG emissions, 2005 - 2015
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Metro Washington Drivers of Change
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Sub-Region A Drivers of Change
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Sub-Region B Drivers of Change
Better GHG data for targeted
Climate Action Plans
Chris Menges – Climate Action Office 7/18/18
Historical Context
20041st GHG Inventory
20061st Vulnerability
Assessment
20071st Climate Action
Plan
GHG Planning Sectors:
Progress, Forecast, Needed Reductions
New Climate Action Plan for 2018-2020
• 1.5 year process
• Guided by ‘Advisory Committee’
• Data as foundation
CAP: 46 actionsToolkit: 250 actions
Identifying Strategies
Data Used: GHG Sources, Trends, Forecast, Carbon intensity
Evaluating & Selecting Strategies
Data used: GHG Reduction potential, qualitative data (e.g. feasibility).
Programmatic & policy anecdotes
Data needed:
How much did
each of these
reduce GHGs?
Existing data insights: supply and demand
Supply-side changes, e.g. – Electric portfolio
– Vehicle fuel economy
Demand-side changes, e.g.– MMBtu (kWh, therms)
– Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT)
Demand change
drivers?
Most effective
programs?
Other drivers?
Insights: Contribution Analysis
Future use: Contribution Analysis2
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-GHG Inventory
-Contribution Analysis (CA)
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-CAP Implementation
-Gathering programmatic data
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-GHG Inventory
-Contribution Analysis (CA)
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CAP Update
w/ CA data
Takeaways: Contribution Analysis
• Better insights = better planning
• = More reductions
• = Better chance of achieving goals
• An emerging best practice
• Where we need to go
Many Applications of This Type of
Analysis
• Communicating Progress & Putting Results in Context
• Raising the role of Advocacy for State & Federal Policies
• Tailoring action to address headwinds
• Identify unreliable data sources
Summary of 14 Demonstration Cities
Toolkit Overview
• Downloadable Zip File
– Excel workbook tool
– Full Guide Book
– Quick Start Guide
– Data request templates
– Data collection checklist
Accessing Toolkit
• www.icleiusa.org/ghg-contribution-analysis
– On-Demand Walkthrough Training
– Recorded Webinars
• Related DOE & C-LEAP Resources at:
https://www.energy.gov/eere/analysis/drivers-
change-local-greenhouse-gas-emissions-toolkit
Upcoming Training
• Thursday August 9th
– Details of data collection
– Entering data into the tool
– Working with outputs
• Training on Interpretation
– September
Questions
Thank You!
Jennifer Ewing [email protected]
Maia Davis [email protected]
Chris Menges [email protected]
Ookie Ma [email protected]
Mike Steinhoff [email protected]
Emma Johnson; Bellevue, WA Hoi-Fei Mok, ICLEI-USA
Ashley Perl; Aspen CO Eli Yewdall, ICLEI-USA
Garrett Wong; Santa Monica, CA Angie Fyfe, ICLEI-USA
Jonathan Dickinson, WSP Consulting Jeffrey King, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
Kendra White, Cascadia Consulting Timothy Masters, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
Andrea Martin, Cascadia Consulting Robert Graff, Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission
Carrie Lee;King County, WA Shawn Legendre, Delaware Valley Regional Planning
Rachel Brombaugh; King County, WA Roel Hammerschlag, Hammerschlag & Co. LLC
Matt Kuharic; King County, WA Megan Day, NREL
David Bielin, NREL
Full Project Team
Contribution Analysis Launch 7/18/18 - Webinar Written Responses to Questions
Question Answer
Are per capita emissions {for Bellevue} reported relative to residential population or service population (residents + jobs)? Thanks!
A: residential population
Bellevue: can you elaborate on how you assess the impact of hotter summers and warmer winters with variability of annual weather and a relatively short assesmment period (6 years)?
A: The key is in obtaining monthly utility data to supplement the annual figure in the inventory. With this information an regression model of the community-scale response to changes in heating and cooling degree days can be developed to use in this step of the process
Can you go over the emissions sectors included in the tool (e.g., energy, agriculture, wastewater)?
A: The tool does not have any explicit support for evaluating contributions to the changes in performance of these sectors, but the overall change up or down can be illustrated in the waterfall chart produced by the tool
Do you anticipate that the Interpretation Training in September will cover best practice for explaining the results of the analysis to lay audiences?
A: Yes, that will be a primary focus
For those of us that don't have multiple GHG inventories available to input into the tool, the broader lessons learned from across the 14 cities in the pilot is incredibly useful for helping make the case. Will ICLEI or DOE be developing messaging materials to support a broader dissemination of lessons learned through C-LEAP?
A: Yes, ICLEI will be continuing to explore applications of the tool and promote the work at least through the end of the year through the grant and ultimately will be worked into our core programing
How do you quantify the impact of some of these contributions? E.g., clean electricity grid seems reasonably easier to understand (because you typically know where elec is sourced from). But how do you quantify decreased driving per person? Thanks!
A: Some factors like VMT per person are simply imputed from the inventory inputs (total VMT and population from each inventory) as opposed to modeled from the bottom up.
I am not using a mic - Is ICLEI membership requried to access the toolkit?
A: ICLEI Membership not required to access the tool as it was a funded from the federal government
Is monthly data something we should request from the utilities as we ask them for updated info for our new inventory?
A: Yes, it would be convenient to make those requests at the same time, though it should be noted that monthly data is not required for every inventory year.
Is the low solid waste emissions for Bellevue due to no local landfill? Or does that account t for your total solid waste stream?
A: the landfill and composting emissions are Scope 3 methane and CO2 emissions, and occur outside of our boundaries. We used the GPC to calculate these emissions based on the total tonnage collected in Bellevue from residents and businesses.
Is there room in the toolkit to add emissions sectors that might not already be included? (e.g., high GWP gases, special stationary sources)
A: ICLEI may look to make additions to the toolkit however the excel workbook is not password protected and users are encouraged to extend the methodology to additional sectors where data supports it
Is three ghg inventories adequate sample size for using this tool?
A: Two inventories in the minimum and the toolkit can be applied to any two pairs; for example Year 1 to Year 2 AND Year 2 to Year 3
It's great that you do a GHG inventory year. How often do you report on the implementation status of actions in the Strategic Plan? Thanks!
A: We do a bi-annual update to city council and a 5-year update to the current plan. We are currently moving towards an annual inventory cycle.
Under the contribution analysis (namely for the City of Aspen), are the contributions from the change in energy use disaggregated from the contributions from changes in weather?
The analysis takes place in a stepwise fashion such that changes due to weather are disaggregated from changes in emissions factor and changes in energy use are further disaggregated from the weather.