Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters
-
Upload
tankesmedjanfores -
Category
Documents
-
view
41 -
download
1
description
Transcript of Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters
![Page 1: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Consumption-based approaches in climate policy
FORESOctober 21, 2014
Glen PetersCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)
Email: [email protected] Twitter: @Peters_Glen
![Page 2: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
THE MITIGATION CHALLENGE
![Page 3: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Over 1000 scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are shownSource: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014
![Page 4: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
A “typical” 2°C scenario?• Rationale behaviour by all decision
makers, consumers and producers
• Immediate implementation of a global carbon price in all countries (from 2010)
• Full availability of all technologies
![Page 5: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
The Reality...• Sunk costs by decision makers,
consumers, and producers
• Fragmented carbon pricing/policies
• Lack of availability of technologies
![Page 6: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
The Reality...• Sunk costs by decision makers,
consumers, and producers
• Fragmented carbon pricing/policies• Can consumption-based accounting help?
• Lack of availability of technologies
![Page 7: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
FRAGMENTED POLICIES
![Page 8: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
Fragmented policy
• “Common but differentiated” leads to fragmented policies
• Strong, weak, none
• Relevant in a global economy• Carbon leakage• Competiveness concerns
![Page 9: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)The top four emitters in 2013 covered 58% of global emissions
China (28%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (7%)
Bunkers fuel used for international transport is 3% of global emissionsStatistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 3% of global emissions
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
![Page 10: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Consumption-based emissions (carbon footprint)
Allocating emissions to the consumption of goods and services provides an alternative perspective on emission drivers
Consumption-based emissions are calculated by adjusting the standard production-based emissions to account for international trade
Source: Le Quéré et al 2014; Peters et al 2011;Global Carbon Project 2014
![Page 11: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
CONSUMPTION-BASED EMISSIONS
![Page 12: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
Swedish emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-50
0
50
100E
mis
sion
s (M
tCO 2)
Consumption =Production– Exports+ Imports
“Net transfer” =Exports – Imports
![Page 13: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
Swedish emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-50
0
50
100E
mis
sion
s (M
tCO 2)
Consumption: New policy lever?
Imports: “Carbon Leakage”
Production: Sovereign control
Exports: “Competitiveness
concerns”
![Page 14: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.35
Food
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.77
Clothing
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.79
Manufacturing and Industry
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.85
Mobility services
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.23
Housing
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.85
Infrastucture
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.88
Electricity, gas, water
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.61
Services and retailing
East AsiaSouth-East Asia and OceaniaSouth AsiaNorth AmericaSouth AmericaEuropeRussian Federation and former SovietMiddle East and North AfricaAfrica
Consumption (USD/capita)
Em
issi
ons
(CO
2-eq/
capi
ta)
Consumption as a “driver”
![Page 15: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
CONSUMPTION AS A POLICY LEVER
![Page 16: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
Example consumption policies• Country level consumption cap, border
carbon adjustment
• Labelling (e.g., amount of CO2)
• Information (less meat, less flights, ...)
• Regulations (e.g., ban products)
![Page 17: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
Assessing policies• Top-down: Border Carbon Adjustment
• Remove exports• Add imports
• Bottom-up: Behavioural economics• Surveys• Focus groups• Laboratory experiments• ...
![Page 18: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
Effectiveness vs Fairness• Consumption-based policies in a fragmented
regime are:• More cost effective• More environmentally effective• But unfair
• Unfair: • Developing countries have to reduce emissions • Can be offset with financial transfers
![Page 19: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
Implementation issues• Uncertainty (country and sector level)
• Legal (WTO)
• Institutional (UNFCCC reporting)
• Feasibility (winners vs losers)
![Page 20: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
Uncertainty
![Page 21: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
![Page 22: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
“Complementary” Policies• Key lever: Territorial-based emissions
• Complementary policy levers• (in a fragmented policy regime)• Consumption accounting to track leakage• Consumption analysis to identify drivers• Consumption policies to respond
• Not only consumption...
![Page 23: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
ExtractionExtractors collect tax revenue
In principle easy
Production/TerritorialEasy and status quo
Fragmentation, free riders, carbon leakage
ConsumptionPuts focus on key driversComplex (and uncertain)
Alternate carbon policies
![Page 24: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
FORES21/10/2014
Thank you
folk.uio.no/glen
Twitter: @Peters_Glen
![Page 25: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)
China’s per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 45% above the global average
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Per capita emissions in 2013
![Page 26: Consumption-based approaches in climate policy - Glen Peters](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061219/5483fb465906b5b2158b46a2/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Consumption Emissions per the Kyoto Protocol
The net emissions transfers into Annex B countries more than offsets the Annex B emission reductions achieved within the Kyoto Protocol
In Annex B, production-based emissions have had a slight decrease while consumption-based emissions have grown at 0.5% per year, and emission transfers have grown at 11% per year
Source: CDIAC; Peters et al 2011; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014