CONSUMER · Meow, Inc. designs and sells apparel, accessories, and shoes for women. 19 0.2x - FOOD...

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Q4 2019 | Q1 2020 Sustained Consumer Resilience in Midst of Global Pandemic Consumer M&A Transactions by Year (Strategic Buyers Include Private Equity Owned Companies) EdgePoint | 2000 Auburn Drive, Suite 330 | Beachwood, OH 44122 | (800) 217-7139 | www.edgepoint.com Source: EdgePoint Proprietary Database, Company Filings, CapIQ, News Releases Consumer spending is a main driver of the U.S. economy, ac- counng for 70% of U.S. GDP. Social distancing, lockdowns, and travel restricons have taken an unprecedented toll on the con- sumer segment, of which retail and service industries are crical components. According to economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal, retail sales in April are expected to fall 12.3% from a month earlier. U.S. consumer prices are falling, with the pandemic pushing down consumer prices in April by the most since the Great Re- cession. Gas prices also took a hit, although any beneficial im- pacts on households is negated as Americans are driving less, and while households are purchasing more at stores, the price index for food at home posted its largest monthly increase since February 1974. Outside of food and energy, core prices saw the largest monthly drop since 1957. In May, the U.S. unemployment rate soared to 14.7%, the worst since the Great Depression. As the pandemic wears on, the longer-term viability of the economy will be determined by how quickly consumers can begin to visit businesses and resume nor- malized spending habits. The consumer porons of M&A markets have shown persever- ance despite underlying economic uncertaines. While the mix of deals executed by strategic and financial buyers has re- mained consistent with historical norms, we look for strategic acquirors to comprise a larger poron of M&A acvity while financial investors turn their focus inward to help their porolio businesses manage through the crisis. CONSUMER 802 907 1,057 1,147 1,159 1,273 1,277 1,349 1,356 1,283 1,386 1,399 96 160 184 191 220 206 232 228 215 178 202 193 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM # of Transactions Strategic Buyers Financial Buyers 10.0x 12.4x 12.7x 12.2x 14.9x 14.9x 18.0x 17.6x 8.8x 6.8x 12.1x 9.9x 9.6x 11.5x 13.5x 14.2x 12.5x 9.5x 10.8x 10.8x 11.7x 10.5x 12.4x 12.3x 0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM EV / EBITDA Food & Beverage Household and Personal Products Consumer Durables and Apparel

Transcript of CONSUMER · Meow, Inc. designs and sells apparel, accessories, and shoes for women. 19 0.2x - FOOD...

Page 1: CONSUMER · Meow, Inc. designs and sells apparel, accessories, and shoes for women. 19 0.2x - FOOD & BEVERAGE 1/13/2020 Cott Corporation (nka:Primo Water Corporation) Primo Water

Q4 2019 | Q1 2020

Sustained Consumer Resilience in Midst of Global Pandemic

Consumer M&A Transactions by Year (Strategic Buyers Include Private Equity Owned Companies)

EdgePoint | 2000 Auburn Drive, Suite 330 | Beachwood, OH 44122 | (800) 217-7139 | www.edgepoint.com

Source: EdgePoint Proprietary Database, Company Filings, CapIQ, News Releases

Consumer spending is a main driver of the U.S. economy, ac-counting for 70% of U.S. GDP. Social distancing, lockdowns, and travel restrictions have taken an unprecedented toll on the con-sumer segment, of which retail and service industries are critical components. According to economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal, retail sales in April are expected to fall 12.3% from a month earlier.

U.S. consumer prices are falling, with the pandemic pushing down consumer prices in April by the most since the Great Re-cession. Gas prices also took a hit, although any beneficial im-pacts on households is negated as Americans are driving less, and while households are purchasing more at stores, the price index for food at home posted its largest monthly increase since February 1974. Outside of food and energy, core prices saw the

largest monthly drop since 1957.

In May, the U.S. unemployment rate soared to 14.7%, the worst since the Great Depression. As the pandemic wears on, the longer-term viability of the economy will be determined by how quickly consumers can begin to visit businesses and resume nor-malized spending habits.

The consumer portions of M&A markets have shown persever-ance despite underlying economic uncertainties. While the mix of deals executed by strategic and financial buyers has re-mained consistent with historical norms, we look for strategic acquirors to comprise a larger portion of M&A activity while financial investors turn their focus inward to help their portfolio businesses manage through the crisis.

CONSUMER

802 907 1,057 1,147 1,159 1,273 1,277 1,349 1,356 1,283 1,386 1,399

96 160 184

191 220 206 232 228 215

178 202 193

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

# o

f T

ran

sacti

on

s

Strategic Buyers Financial Buyers

10.0x

12.4x 12.7x 12.2x

14.9x 14.9x

18.0x 17.6x

8.8x6.8x

12.1x

9.9x 9.6x11.5x

13.5x 14.2x12.5x

9.5x10.8x 10.8x

11.7x10.5x

12.4x 12.3x

0.0x

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

EV

/ E

BIT

DA

Food & Beverage Household and Personal Products Consumer Durables and Apparel

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Notable Recently Announced and Closed Consumer Transactions

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Noteworthy Home Health & Hospice Care Transactions | Q1 - Q2 2017 (continued) CONSUMER Q4 2019 | Q1 2020

Date: 12/11/2019 (Closed)

Froneri International, founded in 1932 and based in Northallerton, UK produces and

sells ice cream and frozen confectionery products worldwide. The company offers its

products primarily under the Kelly’s, Cadbury, Oreo, Daim, Nestlé, Skinny Cow, YooMoo,

Del Monte, and Britvic brands.

• With the acquisition of the second largest ice cream manufacturer in the U.S.,

Froneri International becomes the second largest ice cream manufacturer globally

• The acquisition, including iconic brands like Dreyer’s, Häagen-Dazs, Outshine, Skinny

Cow, Edy’s, Nestlé Ice Cream and Drumstick marks Froneri’s first entry into the U.S.

ice cream market, the largest market in the world with a value of $18b (Statista)

Overview / Strategic Rationale: Food & Beverage, Dairy

Date: 12/30/2019 (Closed)

Reinhart FoodService, founded in 1972 and based in La Crosse, WI, operates as a food-service distributor, providing frozen and canned fruits and vegetables, ready-to-service products, gourmet foods, brand appetizers and snacks, ingredients, condiments, and baking necessities in the United States. The company also offers quality disposable items like take-out containers, plastic cutlery, cups, plates, and janitorial products.

• With the acquisition of Reinhart, Performance Food Group expands its distribution footprint while employing a parallel go-to-market approach and sales culture

• FG expects to achieve $50m in annual run-rate cost synergies, primarily procure-ment, operations, and logistics synergies, beginning in the third full fiscal year following the close of the transaction

Overview / Strategic Rationale:

Date: 02/01/2020 (Closed)

Cura Cannabis Solutions is a provider of legal cannabis oil in legal United States and in-

ternational markets. The company offers purity, potency, and flavor in its Cannabidiol

(CBD), extracted from industrial hemp, with products designed to benefit people seeking

the healing benefits expected from most cannabis, without the psychoactive effects of

Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC).

• Curaleaf expects to leverage its Select Oil brand to achieve improved margins through reduced distribution, raw material, and manufacturing costs

• The acquisition solidifies Curaleaf’s stance as the largest cannabis operator in the U.S. in terms of operational and wholesale footprint, including 53 open dispensaries

Overview / Strategic Rationale: Consumer Durables , Personal Care

Quest Nutrition produces and markets protein bars, protein cookies, protein chips, thin

crust pizzas, and protein powders. The company serves consumers, including fitness

competitors, bodybuilders, cross fitters, low-carb dieters, and professional athletes.

Quest Nutrition was founded in 2010 and is based in El Segundo, CA.

• The Acquisition of Quest, expected to drive $20m in cost synergies over three years through efficiencies of scale, is expected to provide Simply Good Foods’ with an ex-panded portfolio and greater consumer and channel diversification

• Simply Good Foods expects to benefit from Quest’s effectiveness in e-commerce and social platforms and non-tracked distribution channels, while Quest is expected to benefit from Simply Good Foods’ expertise in traditional media and building distribu-tion in food, drug and mass channels

Overview / Strategic Rationale: Food & Beverage, Protein

Acquirer:

Key Metrics:

Implied Enterprise Value ($M) EV/LTM EBITDA EV/LTM Revenue

Target:

$4,000 NA NA

Food & Beverage, Distribution

Acquirer:

Key Metrics:

Implied Enterprise Value ($M) EV/LTM EBITDA EV/LTM Revenue

Target:

$2,000 8.1x 0.3x

Acquirer:

Key Metrics:

Implied Enterprise Value ($M) EV/LTM EBITDA EV/LTM Revenue

Target:

$1,000 20.0x

2.9x

Acquirer:

Key Metrics:

Implied Enterprise Value ($M) EV/LTM EBITDA EV/LTM Revenue

Target:

$949 NA NA

Date: 11/07/2019 (Closed)

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EdgePoint | 2000 Auburn Drive, Suite 330 | Beachwood, OH 44122 | (800) 217-7139 | www.edgepoint.com

Recent Announced & Closed Transactions (select transactions, not intended to be all-inclusive)

Sources: EdgePoint Proprietary Database, Company Filings, CapIQ, News Releases

Noteworthy Home Health & Hospice Care Transactions | Q1 - Q2 2017 (continued) CONSUMER Q4 2019 | Q1 2020

Price Revenue EBITDA

($MM) Multiple Multiple

CONSUMER DURABLE & APPAREL

3/9/2020 Compass Diversified Holdings Marucci Sports LLCMarucci Sports LLC provides baseball and softball tools to

players at every level. $ 200 - 13.3x

1/21/2020 The Toro Company Venture Products, Inc. Venture Products, Inc. manufactures tractors and attachments. 166 1.7x -

1/20/2020 IG Design Group Americas Inc. CSS Industries, Inc.CSS Industries, Inc. designs and manufactures seasonal, gift,

and craft products principally to mass market retailers. 166 0.5x 10.3x

12/4/2019 Hunter Douglas N.V. 3 Day Blinds LLC3 Day Blinds LLC manufactures window treatments in the United

States. 16 0.1x -

11/26/2019 Coats Group plc (LSE:COA) Pharr High Performance Yarns Pharr High Performance Yarns manufactures technical yarns. 37 0.3x 7.4x

11/15/2019 ACProducts, Inc. Masco Cabinetry LLCMasco Cabinetry LLC manufactures cabinetry products for home

improvement and new home construction markets. 1,000 1.1x 10.1x

11/6/2019Taylor Morrison Home

Corporation (NYSE:TMHC)William Lyon Homes (NYSE:WLH)

William Lyon Homes, together with its subsidiaries, designs,

constructs, markets, and sells single-family detached and

attached homes.

2,422 1.2x 20.0x

11/5/2019 Vince, LLC Meow, Inc./Parker New YorkMeow, Inc. designs and sells apparel, accessories, and shoes for

women. 19 0.2x -

FOOD & BEVERAGE

1/13/2020Cott Corporation (nka:Primo

Water Corporation)Primo Water Corporation

Primo Water Corporation provides multi-gallon purified bottled

water, self-service refill water, and water dispensers. 773 2.4x 15.6x

1/6/2020 Yum! Brands, Inc. The Habit Restaurants, Inc.The Habit Restaurants, Inc. operates and franchises fast casual

restaurants under The Habit Burger Grill name. 556 1.2x 8.7x

11/17/2019 Marfrig Global Foods S.A. National Beef Packing Company, LLCNational Beef Packing Company, LLC produces and sells meat

products in the United States and internationally. 3,245 0.4x 4.6x

11/11/2019Anheuser-Busch Companies,

LLCCraft Brew Alliance, Inc.

Craft Brew Alliance, Inc. brews and sells craft beers, ciders, and

seltzers in the United States and internationally. 379 1.9x -

11/6/2019ICV Partners, LLC; ICV Partners

IV, L.P.Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc.

Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc., a restaurant company,

owns and operates Buffalo Wild Wings franchised restaurants. 177 1.1x 10.0x

10/11/2019 ARC Group, Inc. (OTCPK:RLLY) All Assets of Soaring Wings, LLC

As of October 11, 2019, All Assets of Soaring Wings, LLC was

acquired by ARC Group, Inc. All Assets of Soaring Wings, LLC

comprises a chain of bar and grill restaurants

18 0.3x -

HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL PRODUCTS

11/18/2019 HFC Prestige Products, Inc. King Kylie, LLC King Kylie, LLC manufactures beauty products. $ 1,176 6.6x -

11/13/2019 MAV Beauty Brands Inc. The Mane Choice Hair Solution LLCThe Mane Choice Hair Solution LLC manufactures and supplies

hair care products. 91 3.7x 14.2x

10/8/2019 Shiseido Americas Corporation Drunk Elephant Holdings, LLCDrunk Elephant Holdings, LLC manufactures, markets, and

distributes skincare products. 845 11.3x -

Target DescriptionDate Acquirer Target

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EdgePoint | 2000 Auburn Drive, Suite 330 | Beachwood, OH 44122 | (800) 217-7139 | www.edgepoint.com

Sub-Sector Profile: Home Furnishings

Noteworthy Home Health & Hospice Care Transactions | Q1 - Q2 2017 (continued) CONSUMER Q4 2019 | Q1 2020

Active Home Furnishings Buyers

• SelectBlinds.com

• 3 Day Blinds LLC

• 247 Home Furnishings Ltd.

• Gardinia Home Décor GmbH

• Copaco Screenweavers NV

Date of Investment Select Strategic & Financial Buyers Acquisition Activity

• Masco Cabinetry LLC

• Elkay Wood Products Company

• MCW Industries and Master Woodcraft Cabinetry

• Cabinets 2000, LLC

• Smart, LLC

The Home Furnishings sector experienced rapid M&A activity in

4Q19 that continued into 1Q20, averaging 12 transactions per

quarter during the period, well above the average of nine per

quarter during the prior two years. Wood Household Furniture,

Window Coverings, and Mattresses and Beds subsectors experi-

enced the most activity.

Hunter Douglas (AMS:HDG) remains an extremely active partici-

pant in the M&A market, acquiring a 30% stake in Select Blinds

with an option to purchase the remainder of the business. Se-

lect Blinds, a Tempe, AZ based business achieved $94m in reve-

nue in 2019. Hunter Douglas acquired a 98% stake in 3 Day

Blinds for $16m. 3 Day Blinds is an Irvine, CA based manufactur-

er of its own line of shades, blinds, and draperies. The company

previously acquired 247 Home Furnishings (U.K. based), Gardin-

ia Home Décor (Germany), and Copaco Screenweavers (Spain),

a manufacturer of sunscreen fabrics and insect screen mesh.

ACProducts, Inc., an Addison, TX based manufacturer of resi-

dential kitchen and bath cabinets and portfolio company of

American Industrial Partners since 2012, was active in the roll-

up of various cabinetry makers. ACProducts acquired Masco

Cabinetry from Masco Corp. for $1b. The deal consisted of

$850m in cash and $150m of preferred stock issued at closing.

Masco Corporation previously announced in March 2019 that it

was seeking to divest its Cabinetry and windows subsidiaries

within six to nine months. In November 2019, Masco an-

nounced it had finalized the sale of Milgard Windows and Doors

for $725m.

Earlier in 2019, ACProducts acquired Elkay Wood Products Com-

pany, a leading manufacturer of kitchen and batch cabinetry in

a move to combine the former Armstrong Cabinets business,

previously spun off from Armstrong Industries by American In-

dustrial Partners in 2012, combining the No. 4 and No. 5 largest

cabinet companies on the FDMC 300 list.

GHK Capital Partners entered the cabinet business through its

platform acquisition of Dura Supreme Cabinetry, a Howard

Lake, MN based manufacturer of custom and semi-custom

framed and frameless cabinetry. Dura employs 400 people at its

220k sq. ft. manufacturing facility.

12/31/2019

12/31/2019

11/21/2019

11/12/2019

05/29/2019

02/18/2020

02/15/2019

06/04/2018

04/02/2018

03/21/2017

• Assets Of Sherwood Bedding Group, LLC 01/31/2020

• Dura Supreme, Inc. 10/17/2019

• The Living Company 10/15/2019

Page 5: CONSUMER · Meow, Inc. designs and sells apparel, accessories, and shoes for women. 19 0.2x - FOOD & BEVERAGE 1/13/2020 Cott Corporation (nka:Primo Water Corporation) Primo Water

EdgePoint | 2000 Auburn Drive, Suite 330 | Beachwood, OH 44122 | (800) 217-7139 | www.edgepoint.com

Packaged Food & Meats

Noteworthy Home Health & Hospice Care Transactions | Q1 - Q2 2017 (continued) CONSUMER Q4 2019 | Q1 2020

Active Packaged Food & Meats Buyers

• Two Bakery Plants of TreeHouse Foods, Inc.

• Morey’s Seafood International

• Rizzuto Foods Inc.

• The Christie Cookie Company

Date of Investment Select Strategic Buyers Acquisition Activity

• Fresh Foods Corporation of America

• Superior Cake Products, Inc.

M&A activity in the Packaged Food & Meats industry increased

significantly in 1Q20, totaling 52 deals in the quarter compared

with just 45 deals in 1Q19. Activity across all sub-sectors in-

creased, but it was led by the Bread & Bakery Products, Coffee

& Tea, and Confectionery Products Categories.

While the largest deal of 4Q19 and 1Q20 belonged to Coca Cola

in its acquisition of fairlife, LLC for $979m, the second largest

deal was the acquisition of Assets of Dean Foods Company

(including 44 fluid and frozen facilities) by Dairy Farmers of

America, Inc. for $433m. The original founder of Uncle Matt’s

Organic, Matt McLean, acquired the juice brand back. McLean

founded Uncle Matt’s Organic in 1999, sold the business to

Dean Foods in 2017, and formed Harmoni, Inc. with a team of

investors (including Stonyfield Organic co-founder, Gary Hirsh-

berg, and CEO of Once Upon a Farm, John Foraker) to purchase

the business with plans to expand its distribution reach and

portfolio of organic products.

Rich Products Corp. is off to a busy start to 2020. Rich Products

acquired two bakery plants of TreeHouse Foods, Inc. located in

Lodi, CA and Fridley, MN. The bakery plants, expected to further

Rich’s offerings in the bakery and dessert categories, specialize

in the production of baked bread and rolls and finished cakes

for sale in in-store bakeries and food service venues. Rich Prod-

ucts Corp. received the Cottage Bakery brand as part of the

transaction.

In addition, Rich’s acquired Morey’s Seafood International un-

der its popular frozen seafood brand SeaPak Shrimp & Seafood

Company. Morey’s processes and distributes a full line of fresh

and frozen seafood products. After shedding its St. Louis and

Kansas City operations to Fortune International last spring, the

company recently expanded to a 65k square-foot facility to ac-

commodate a surge in demand. Rich’s first acquisition of the

year, Rizzuto Foods, Inc., helped to amplify the company’s 40-

year legacy in the pizza business. Rizzuto is a processor of pizza

products, but it is best known for its high-quality pizza and flat-

breads, including gluten-free and cauliflower crust varieties.

Hormel Foods completed its first acquisition since November

2017 through its purchase of Sadler’s Smokehouse, Ltd. For

$270m. The acquisition bolsters Hormel’s offerings to retailers

and foodservice vendors. Excluding sales to Hormel, which had

been a customer for 20 years, the deal closed at approximately

1.93x revenue.

04/17/2020

02/04/2020

01/16/2020

08/22/2019

02/24/2020

08/01/2019

• Assets of the Cambridge Packing Company, Inc.

• Assets of Bassian Farms, Inc.

02/03/2020

02/25/2019

• Sadler's Smokehouse, Ltd. 02/20/2020

• Five Production Facilities and Ledbetter Branded Retail

Products of Empire Packing Company, L.P.

09/10/2019

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EdgePoint | 2000 Auburn Drive, Suite 330 | Beachwood, OH 44122 | (800) 217-7139 | www.edgepoint.com

Noteworthy Home Health & Hospice Care Transactions | Q1 - Q2 2017 (continued) CONSUMER Q4 2019 | Q1 2020

What We are Reading:

Resetting Grocery (Progressive Grocer, 05/07/2020)

While companies in all industries are occupied with ensuring the health and welfare of colleagues and customers in the face of unprece-

dented challenges, the grocery industry has proved vital to consumer livelihoods and the economy alike, serving weeks of demand in just a

matter of days. As many focus on the challenges of day-to-day operations, consumers have transitioned to online shopping in an unparal-

leled manner.

Research concludes that 28% of online grocery shoppers made their first online grocery order in the past four weeks, with many encounter-

ing an unsatisfactory experience. Some grocers are forcing shoppers to queue to enter their digital stores, while many grocers lack sufficient

delivery slots, forcing shoppers to check daily or even hourly to secure delivery. Unsurprisingly, 9 of 10 shoppers experienced out-of-stocks,

while 53% could not find a substitute for half or more of unavailable items. To serve consumers better, providers must adapt to being more

customer-centric by extending operating hours, holding larger inventories to reduce stock-outs, utilizing smarter substitution algorithms,

and providing for automated allocation of future delivery slots.

While retail continues to see a lack of product availability, wholesale channels have an abundance of product going to waste. According to

the Los Angeles Times, the wholesale channel has seen a collapse in sales of up to 90%. Many restaurants that are starved of their core

business are expanding to provide home delivery services, meal kits, to-go cocktails, etc.

One interesting innovation is the return of category specialists, like Chewy, which is benefiting from its depth of supply and focus. Digital

solutions providers have allowed consumers the ease of online ordering from several focused suppliers, which for some has proven easier

than browsing a single supermarket with tens of thousands of alternatives to sort through onscreen. Fintech innovations suggest the cus-

tomer experience from category specialists is superior to the one-stop-shop complexity of full-service retailers.

Fashion’s Digital Transformation: Now or Never (McKinsey & Company 05/06/2020)

The ability of apparel, fashion, and luxury companies to survive the crisis will greatly depend on their digital and analytics capabilities.

McKinsey sets forth a list of both short and long-term actions to allow AF&L businesses to build their digital and analytics capabilities to

emerge from the crisis in a position of strength.

Given the spike in email, social media, and digital channel usage during the crisis, brands are advised to communicate frequently despite

reduced discretionary spending habits. The online share of fashion and apparel in the EU and North America is expected to increase 20-40%

in the next six to 12 months; despite this, some larger brands are reducing their promotional activity to handle the volume of orders. In-

stead, brands should reallocate resources to shift attention online while simultaneously scaling up demand generation and fulfillment capa-

bilities. Further, brands should allocate a greater share of their marketing budgets to digital channels to provide greater leverage as de-

mand rebounds.

Shoppers Still Favor Stores Over Online During Crisis (Supermarket News, 04/20/2020)

A survey of over a thousand Americans in early April shed light on the unique insight that 70% of respondents are still visiting stores to buy

groceries rather than ordering online, despite increased health risks, social distancing measures, and government warnings to stay home.

Given the surge in panic purchases, 60% of consumers have gone without products or service, while 47% have paid more for something

than they normally would. Items at the top of consumers shopping lists include frozen food (65%), cleaning products (56%), and toilet paper

(53%).

Inventory shortfalls have many customers wrestling with brand loyalty; research showed that 18-24 year-olds are much more open than

older consumers to try a new product or service in light of a shortfall of a desired product. Among many revealing insights was consumers’

willingness to buy another brand, but not a different product. A positive sentiment for hard-hit retailers was the fact that 77% of respond-

ents exhibited a high level of trust in retailers, service providers, and brands, and the recognition of America’s essential workforce.

Page 7: CONSUMER · Meow, Inc. designs and sells apparel, accessories, and shoes for women. 19 0.2x - FOOD & BEVERAGE 1/13/2020 Cott Corporation (nka:Primo Water Corporation) Primo Water

EdgePoint | 2000 Auburn Drive, Suite 330 | Beachwood, OH 44122 | (800) 217-7139 | www.edgepoint.com

Noteworthy Home Health & Hospice Care Transactions | Q1 - Q2 2017 (continued) CONSUMER Q4 2019 | Q1 2020

What We are Reading (con’t)

How Consumer-Goods Companies Can Prepare for the Next Normal (McKinsey & Company 04/17/2020)

As shutdown measures are expected to lead to the largest quarterly decline in economic activity since WWII, an unprecedented 40-50%

decline in discretionary spending is expected to translate to an 8-13% decline in GDP. Many CPG companies have withstood the initial eco-

nomic shock, but they will need to prepare for longer-lasting effects. McKinsey outlines five emerging trends in the consumer and retail

landscape that are expected to persist in the aftermath of the crisis.

Social distancing measures have increased the consumption of online media and have significantly accelerated e-commerce, particularly in

developed countries like the United States and the UK. Amazon, for instance is expected to build momentum in fresh food and packaged

goods. A sustained rise in attention to wellness and hygiene is expected to endure. As such, consumers are investing in at-home exercises;

Amazon’s fitness equipment sales spiked by approximately 60% each week in March in Germany and the UK. Large CPG companies are ex-

pected to continue to prioritize social responsibility through media communications, while at the same time exercising caution so as not to

exploit the crisis as a commercial opportunity. In redefining a corporations statement of purpose, striking the right balance between ex-

isting focus areas and emerging consumer concerns will be key in winning long-term consumer loyalty. Channel shift, including food-service

closures, retailer consolidation, and the emergence of quick-service restaurants will require some CPG players to reassess their supply-chain

complexity and to refocus their channel strategies.

Online Grocers Are Getting a Preview of Their Future (Wall Street Journal, 03/27/2020)

As the number of U.S. households ordering groceries online roughly doubled in March to 40m, grocers are being tested—and are by and

large failing. Despite growing investment in online marketplaces, grocers across the world were not ready for the current levels of demand.

Before the outbreak, just 3.1% of groceries were purchased over the web in the United States, compared to 7.6% in the U.K. A nascent in-

frastructure proved harder to meet the ramp-up required to fulfill online capacity.

The rush of online orders is providing grocers with a unique opportunity to learn to allocate delivery slots efficiently in times of peak de-

mand, in addition to providing real-time testing of different order-fulfillment methods from manual picking in stores to dedicated online

warehouses. Operating on already thin margins, grocers need time to manage the shift online, as sales delivered to a shopper’s home are

far less profitable than those made in stores. Despite the current struggle, many retailers are betting that the surge in online demand will

endure, providing hope that grocery e-commerce business should largely be transformed after this crisis.

Subscription Companies Make Quitting Easier (The Wall Street Journal, 02/25/2020)

Companies selling subscriptions to products have been engaged in fierce competition, with many attempting to appeal more to consumers

by allowing subscribers to quit. ClassPass, for instance, is phasing out a live-chat feature that it forced customers to contend with when

they canceled a class, and it will be rolling out a technology to automate its cancellation process. The company believes in a growing desire

for frictionless cancellation, especially for subscription services.

Companies that previously used onerous policies and processes to retain customers beyond trial periods and who previously discouraged

customers from canceling later have been exposed for difficult cancellation policies, and they are aware that in building a long-term rela-

tionship with the customer, using sneaky terms is not a favorable way to generate trust. The Honest Co. and Rent the Runway both changed

policies that previously required subscribers to call and speak to a member concierge before they could cancel. According to the Wharton

School of the University of Pennsylvania, easy cancellation policies can help businesses to lure in more subscribers and encourage custom-

ers to come back even well after they have left.

Page 8: CONSUMER · Meow, Inc. designs and sells apparel, accessories, and shoes for women. 19 0.2x - FOOD & BEVERAGE 1/13/2020 Cott Corporation (nka:Primo Water Corporation) Primo Water

Source: CapIQ, public trading data as of March 31, 2020

Representative EdgePoint Consumer Transactions

EdgePoint | 2000 Auburn Drive, Suite 330 | Beachwood, OH 44122 | (800) 217-7139 | www.edgepoint.com

EdgePoint is an independent, advisory-focused,

investment banking firm serving the middle market.

Public Company Comparisons Trading Multiples

Source: CapIQ, public trading data as of March 31, 2020

Sell-Side Advisory

Day Motor Sports has sold to

Gen Cap America

Sell-Side Advisory

Pyramyd Air Ltd. has been recapitalized by

Gen Cap America, Inc.

Sell-Side Advisory

Edge Entertainment Distribution has sold to

Alliance Entertainment

Sell-Side Advisory

Ohio Travel Bag has sold to

Zorro Capital, LLC

Sell-Side Advisory

The Apple Fiber division of Tastee Apple has sold to

Mayer Brothers

Sell-Side Advisory

OmegaSea, Ltd. has sold to

Austin Capital Partners

Financing Advisory

Garick Corporation has completed capital

restructuring by A Private Equity Group

Noteworthy Home Health & Hospice Care Transactions | Q1 - Q2 2017 (continued) CONSUMER Q4 2019 | Q1 2020

8.8x 9.1x 8.6x9.6x

11.4x 11.6x12.3x 11.8x

12.9x11.7x

13.2x

11.4x

0.0x

4.0x

8.0x

12.0x

16.0x

20.0x

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

Consumer Annual Public EV/EBITDA Multiples

8.6

x

9.7

x

11.0

x

11.6

x

13.2

x

12.2

x

13.5

x

13.4

x 15.9

x

13.6

x

8.6

x

8.9

x

9.9

x

10.6

x

12.3

x

12.2

x 14.4

x

12.8

x

18.2

x

15.3

x

9.2

x

9.7

x 11.9

x

12.0

x

11.0

x

10.0

x

12.1

x

8.4

x 10.8

x

7.9

x

0.0x

4.0x

8.0x

12.0x

16.0x

20.0x

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

Consumer Public EV/EBITDA Multiples by Sector

Food & Beverage Household and Personal Products Consumer Durables and Apparel

Sell-Side Advisory

has been acquired by

Spectrum Brands Holdings