Consumer Futures in Tourism

TMI Conference, 15 October 2004David Geddes

Socio-Demographic

Travel

Destinations

Expectations

Socio-Demographic

Travel

Destinations

Expectations

Going up…disposable incomeReal* Household Disposable Income per Head in the UK.

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999

Note:Index (1971=100). *Adjusted to real terms using the expenditure deflator for the household sector. Source:Office for National Statistics 2002

Going up...spend on discretionary items

Source: Mintel, British Lifestyle 2002Note: £bn* - Gross Discretionary Spend

Long Term Household Expenditure Trends 1991 - 2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Food

Drinks

Toba

cco

Eatin

g Out

Out-o

f-Hom

e En

terta

inm

ent

Leisur

e Goo

ds

Holid

ays

Cloth

ing

Toile

tries

& M

edicin

e

Gross Discretionary Spend £bn

1991 2001 2006

Going up…the Middle Class

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

ABC1

C2DE

Note:Unweighted base. All persons aged 16 or over. Socio-economic group is based on the informants own job (or last job if not in employment). Excludes those in Armed forces or people who have never worked.. Source:Office for National Statistics 2002

Going up…older age groups

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0-14 15-24  25-34  35-44  45-54  55-64 

1991 Census Population

2007 population projections

Note: Percentage of total UK population by age category. Projections based on 1991 census data.Source: CACI, 2001

“Silver Surfers”

Goin

g U

p

The PeterPan Generation

Goin

g U

p

Goin

g U

p The ConvenienceSociety

Socio-Demographic

Travel

Destinations

Expectations

Goin

g U

p

Going Places

Going up…no frills

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

19971998

19992000

20012002

’00

0’s

pass

en

gers

EasyJetRyanair

Source: CAA/Ryanair.com/easyJet.com/Mintel

*

*Note: easyJet purchase of Go.

Going up...visiting friends and relatives

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Note: Domestic staying visits within the UK staying with friends or relatives (millions)Source: UKTS 1990-2002

Millions

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Millions

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Note: Domestic staying visits within the UK for business purposes (millions)Source: UKTS 1995-2002, readjusted pre-2000

Going up...business tourism

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Going up…short breaks

Note: Domestic holidays of 1-3 nights within the UK (millions)Source: UKTS 1995-2002, readjusted pre-2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Millions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Going down…domestic long holidaysEngland and UK

Overseas

Note: UK residents long holidays (+4 nights) to England and abroad (millions )Source: Social Trends Dataset, BTA 1971–1998.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

* Change in data collection methodology

*Millions

Going down... overseas visitors (exc VFR)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Thousands

Going up... UK Tourism Balance of Payments Deficit - £13bn swing in 13 years!

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Source: IPS 2002

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Bill

ion

s

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Outbound Inbound Balance of payments

Socio-Demographic

Travel

Destinations

Expectations

Cities

Goin

g U

p

Traditional ResortsGoin

g D

ow

n

Still popular…trips to the sea sidePlaces visited for a day out in 2003

Source: BMRB/Mintel - Days Out - UK - April 2004

Seaside Resorts 53%

City / Town 35%

Retail Complex 33%

Beauty Spot 29%

Country Park 29%

Museum or Gallery 26%

Stately Homes 25%

Goin

g U

p

GettingAway from

Cars

Goin

g U

p

Hankering forthe Med lifestyle

- all yearround

Goin

g U

p

Homogeneity

Goin

g U

p

Desire to escapeHomogeneity

Goin

g U

p

Authenticity

Goin

g U

p

Being by Water

Goin

g U

p

Eating and drinkingby Water

Most Visitor AttractionsGoin

g D

ow

n

Goin

g U

p

Destinationsbased on inspiration

Brands

Goin

g U

p

Goin

g U

p

Budget Hotels - they have established a new

benchmark for minimum standards

Quality Independents

and “Boutiques”G

oin

g U

p

Casinos

Goin

g U

p

Socio-Demographic

Travel

Destinations

Expectations

Expectationsof Quality

Goin

g U

p

Learning about quality fromthe Competition

It is quicker and cheaper to get toDubrovnik thanto Windermerefrom London

Lots of tourists

(on short break

from London?)

Nice places to eat,

drink and

people watch

Nice places to

Shop

Nice toPromenade

Pedestrian Friendly

Quality from ground up

No GaudyFacia

QualityStreet

Furniture

Nice at night

Animated

Strong Cultural

Offer

ModernToilets

Lesson from the Competition

They Seem to Care More

The Qualitymatches modern

expectations

www.locum-destination.com

For copy of the presentation, please email dgeddes@locum-

destination.com