CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - Nielsen · 2019-05-29 · MALAYSIA 95 PERU CZECH REPUBLIC FRANCE 66 78 95...
Transcript of CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - Nielsen · 2019-05-29 · MALAYSIA 95 PERU CZECH REPUBLIC FRANCE 66 78 95...
1Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
CONSUMER CONFIDENCECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD
QUARTER 3, 2015
2015 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 3RD EDITION
2 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
• TheU.S.postedthebiggestquarterlyconsumerconfidenceincreaseof18points,reachinganindexscoreof119—thecountry’shighestlevelinNielsen’s10-yearconsumerconfidencehistory.
• Confidencelevelsroseintwo-thirdsofEuropeancountries,andtheU.K.exceededtheoptimismbaselinescoreof100forthefirsttimesince2006.
• Consumerconfidencedeclinedineight-of-14Asia-Pacificmarkets,withthesteepestdeclinesinTaiwan,MalaysiaandHongKong.
• LatinAmericanconfidencecontinuedadownwardtrend,droppingtoaregionalscoreof81—thelowestlevelonrecordfortheregion.
• MiddleEast/Africaconfidencedeclinedinthree-of-fivecountriesmeasured.Moroccomadeitsdebutinthissurvey.
• Globally,discretionaryspendingintentionsincreaseddespiteapervasiverecessionarymindsetamongmorethanhalf(56%)ofthosesurveyedaroundtheworld.
AROUND THE WORLD
2
THE U.S. LED ALL MARKETS WITH A THIRD-QUARTER SURGE IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Globalconsumerconfidenceincreasedthreeindexpointsinthethird
quarterto99,thehighestlevelsince2006.Optimisticsentimentfor
jobprospects,personalfinancesandspendingintentionsincreasedin
nearlyhalf(48%)ofallmeasuredmarkets,butunevengrowthcontinues
aroundtheworldasconfidencestabilizesorgrowsinmanyadvanced
economiesanddeclinesinmanyemergingmarkets.
3Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 3
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Thefindingsinthissurvey
arebasedonrespondents
withonlineaccessin61
countries(unlessotherwise
noted).Whileanonline
surveymethodologyallowsfor
tremendousscaleandglobal
reach,itprovidesaperspective
onlyonthehabitsofexisting
Internetusers,nottotal
populations.Indeveloping
marketswhereonline
penetrationisstillgrowing,
audiencesmaybeyoungerand
moreaffluentthanthegeneral
populationofthatcountry.In
addition,surveyresponsesare
basedonclaimedbehavior
ratherthanactualmetered
data.Culturaldifferencesin
reportingsentimentarelikely
factorsinthemeasurement
ofeconomicoutlookacross
countries.Thereportedresults
donotattempttocontrolor
correctforthesedifferences,
therefore,cautionshouldbe
exercisedwhencomparing
acrosscountriesandregions,
particularlyacrossregional
boundaries.
Regionally,confidenceincreasedsignificantlyinNorthAmerica(U.S.and
Canada)witha16-pointindexsurge,reachingascoreof117—theregion’s
highestlevelinNielsen’s10-yearconsumerconfidencehistory.Confidence
inEuropecontinuedonanupwardtrajectoryforthethirdconsecutive
quarter,as21of32countriespostedindexincreases,resultinginaregional
scoreof81—thehighestlevelsince2008.Conversely,confidenceinthe
Asia-Pacificregiondeclinedoneindexpointto106,andfelltwopointsin
LatinAmerica(81),thelowestscoreonrecordfortheregion.Consumer
confidenceheldsteadyintheMiddleEast/Africaregion1withascoreof94.
Amongtheworld’slargesteconomies,confidenceincreased18points
intheU.S.(119)—thehighestscoreforthecountryinNielsen’s10-year
consumerconfidencehistory.Confidencealsoincreasedfourpointsinthe
U.K.(103)andthreepointsinGermany(100)fromthesecondquarter.
Conversely,confidencedeclinedonepointinChina(106)andthreepoints
inJapan(80).
“Globally,thiscontinuestobeaperiodofeconomicuncertaintyandthus
mixedconfidencetrends,”saidLouiseKeely,seniorvicepresident,Nielsen,
andpresident,TheDemandInstitute.“Despitesomemixedeconomic
signalsfromtheU.S.,consumerconfidencehasstrengthenedand
consumerspendingisdrivingtheeconomy.InEurope,confidenceismore
mixedduetovariationincountry-specificeconomicconditions;stronger
confidenceinItaly,Spain,andtheU.K.reflectsimprovingjobmarkets,
whileRussia’sconfidencehasplummetedinthewakeofaneconomic
downturn.LatinAmericanconfidencealsoismixed,butBrazil’scontinued
confidencedeclineloomslargeasBrazilisthelargesteconomyinthe
region.”
Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedAug.10–Sept.4,2015,consumer
confidenceincreasedin29of60marketsmeasuredbyNielsen(48%).
India’sscoreof131wasthehighestlevelamong612markets,followedby
theU.S.(119),thePhilippines(117)andIndonesia(116).TheU.S.showed
thebiggestquarterlyimprovementof18points,andTaiwanshowedthe
biggestquarterlydeclineof12pointsfromthesecondquarter.SouthKorea
reportedthelowestscoreof49,anincreaseoffourpointsfromthesecond
quarter.
TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal
jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.
Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate
degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobal
SurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,established
in2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspending
intentionsamongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin61
countries.
1MoroccowasaddedtotheGlobalSurveyinthethird-quarterof2015,andthecountry’sindexisreflectedintheMiddleEast/Africaregionalaverage.2MoroccowasaddedtotheGlobalSurveyinthethird-quarterof2015.
4 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
61 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ3-2015 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX*
*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.**MoroccoisanewmarketinQ32015.
+18-5
-40
-3+4
-1
-1
+1
+4
+2
-1
+3
-6
-1
+7
-2
0
+7
-5
+2
+4+5
+5-3
+5-1
-1+1+2+6+1
-5+6
+10-2
-3
-2
-5
-11
-3
+4
+3
-4
-5
-12
+9
0
+4
+5
-4
+6-2
-3
86 AU
STRIA 87 SW
EDEN
87 N
ORW
AY 88
LITHUAN
IA
90 COLO
MBIA
90 EGYPT
SERBIA 58
93 IRELAND
VENEZUELA 60
93 AUSTRALIA
HUNGARY 61
FINLAND 62
94 ISRAEL
CROATIA 64
94 NEW ZEALAND
SLOVENIA
65
95 CZECH REPUBLIC
FRANCE 66
95 PERU
PORTUGAL 66
96 SWITZERLAND
TAIWAN 72
97 NETHERLANDS
LATVIA 74
97 CANADARUSSIA 74 99 HONG KONG
SPAIN 75
100 GERMANY
BULGARIA 77
101 PAKISTAN
ARGENTINA 78
101 SINGAPORE
MALAYSIA 78
103 UNITED KINGDOM
CHILE 79
105 VIETNAM
BRAZIL 79
106 CHINA
JAPAN 80
107 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
ESTONIA
80
109 SAUDI A
RABIA
POLAND
80
109
DENMARK
SLOVAKIA
81
111
THAILA
ND
SOUTH
AFR
ICA
82
116
INDO
NESIA
TURK
EY
84
117
PHIL
IPPI
NES
BELG
IUM
8
4
119
UN
ITED
STA
TES
ROM
ANIA
8
4M
ORO
CCO
**
8
5M
EXIC
O
86
+4
ITALY 57
0
131
IN
DIA
IND
EX
CO
UN
TRY
LESS
CONFID
ENT
MORE CONFIDENT
0
GREECE53
+3
UKRAINE
51
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC
99 ( +3 change from Q2-2015 )
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 61 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ3-2015 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index*
Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism. **Morocco is a new market in Q3 2015.
+4
SOU
TH KO
REA
INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM
GLOBALAVERAGE
49
+5
5Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
61 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ3-2015 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX*
5
SPENDING INTENTIONS INCREASED, BUT RECESSIONARY MINDSET LINGEREDGlobally,immediatespendingintentionshavebeenslowlyincreasing,risingfromalowof30%in2008duringtheGreatRecessiontoahighof43%inthethirdquarterof2015.NorthAmericansshowedthebiggestsurgeinplanstoopentheirwalletswitha14-percentagepointquarterlyincreaseto58%.Mostregionsfollowed,withspendingsentimentuptwopercentagepointsinboththeMiddleEast/Africa(38%)andEurope(34%)anduponepercentagepointinLatinAmerica(33%).SpendingintentionswereflatinAsia-Pacific(47%).
Globaldiscretionarypurchaseintentionshighonthepriorityshoppinglistincludedspendingonnewclothes,holidays/vacations,out-of-homeentertainment,newtechnologyproductsandhomeimprovementprojects.Morethanhalfofglobalrespondents(52%)plannedtosavetheirsparecash,anincreasefrom48%inthesecondquarter.
GLOBAL AVERAGE
NEW CLOTHES 38%
HOLIDAYS / VACATIONS 38%
OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT 34%
NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS 29%
HOME IMPROVEMENTS/DECORATING 26%
HOW DO YOU PLAN TO SPEND YOUR SPARE CASH?
6 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Despiteariseinspendingconfidence,however,halfofglobal
respondents(56%)stillfeltthattheircountrywasinrecessioninthe
thirdquarter,upfrom54%inthesecondquarter.Infact,recessionary
sentimentincreasedin31of60countriesfromthesecondquarter.
“Manyconsumers,acrossmatureandemergingmarkets,havethe
mindsettospendacrossarangeofconsumercategories,”saidKeely.
“Still,amajorityofconsumerscontinuetobelievetheireconomies
areinrecession,eventhoughmostnolongerare.Sharpadjustments
inrecessionarysentimentusuallyreflectactualchangesinacountry’s
economicprospects,andindicatethatconsumerswillbeeitherpulling
backonormoreinclinedtowardspending.”
RecessionarysentimentlevelswerehighestinVenezuela(98%),Ukraine
(96%)andBrazil(92%)andgrewthemostquarter-on-quarterinCanada
(up25percentagepointsto71%),Latvia(up21ppto70%),HongKong
(up17ppto56%),Malaysia(up16ppto89%)andRussia(up14pp
to79%).Conversely,recessionarysentimentimproved10percentage
pointsinboththeCzechRepublic(33%)andPoland(54%)andnine
percentagepointsinIreland(62%).
7Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT:IMPROVES IN PARTS OF EUROPE, WORSENS IN PARTS OF ASIA AND
IS HIGHEST IN PARTS OF LATIN AMERICA
PERCENTAGE WHO THINK THEIR COUNTRY IS IN AN ECONOMIC RECESSION AT THE MOMENTCOUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS.
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32015
DECREASING RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT
Q3 2015
Q3 VS. Q2 Percentage-
Point Change
EGYPT 76% -6
CZECH REPUBLIC 33% -10
POLAND 54% -10
IRELAND 62% -9
PORTUGAL 70% -6
HUNGARY 69% -5
NETHERLANDS 52% -5
BULGARIA 74% -4
SPAIN 69% -4
AUSTRALIA 40% -4
GROWING RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT
Q3 2015
Q3 VS. Q2 Percentage-
Point Change
CANADA 71% +25
LATVIA 70% +21
RUSSIA 79% +14
NORWAY 53% +12
CHILE 66% +11
HONG KONG 56% +17
MALAYSIA 89% +16
TAIWAN 88% +15
INDONESIA 73% +10
TURKEY 84% +10
HIGHEST RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT
VENEZUELA 98%
UKRAINE 96%
BRAZIL 92%
CROATIA 91%
SOUTH KOREA 89%
MALAYSIA 89%
GREECE 89%
ITALY 89%
TAIWAN 88%
SERBIA 87%
Q3 2015
EUROPE
ASIA-PACIFICLATIN AMERICA
8 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
FEARS ABOUT TERRORISM ROSE IN EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA AND ASIA-PACIFICConcernsabouttheeconomyandjobsecurityinthenextsixmonthsremainedthemostpressingissuesfor30%and22%ofglobalrespondents,respectively,butconcernsaboutterrorismgrewaroundtheworld,risingsevenpercentagepointsinEurope(18%)andtwopercentagepointsinboththeMiddleEast/Africa(17%)andAsia-Pacific(7%)regions.FearsaboutterrorismdecreasedonepercentagepointinNorthAmericato13%andwereunchangedinLatinAmerica(2%)fromthesecondquarter.
Morethanone-fifthofrespondentsinTurkey,France,Egypt,SaudiArabia,Germany,theCzechRepublic,Switzerland,AustriaandtheU.K.saidterrorismwastheirbiggestorsecond-biggestconcernwithregardtothenextsixmonths.Quarter-on-quarterterrorismconcernlevelsgrewmostinTurkey(+37pp),Thailand(+11pp),U.K.(+9pp),Israel(+9pp),Slovakia(+9pp),Germany(+8pp)andCroatia(+8pp).
Regionally,concernsaboutcrimewerehighestinLatinAmerica(22%),work-lifebalanceandhealthissueswerehighestinAsia-Pacific(28%and23%,respectively),terrorismfearswerehighestinEurope(18%),debtworrieswerehighestinNorthAmerica(17%)andparents’welfareandhappinessanxietieswerehighestintheMiddleEast/Africa(17%).
BIGGEST AND SECOND-BIGGEST CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS
9Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
HIGHEST LEVELS OF TERRORISM CONCERNS
BIGGEST AND SECOND-BIGGEST CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS
TURKEY
FRANCE
EGYPT
SAUDI ARABIA
GERMANY
CZECH REPUBLIC
SWITZERLAND
AUSTRIA
U.K.
+37
+4
+6
+7
+8
+6
+7
+7
+9
58%
26%
26%
26%
23%
23%
22%
21%
21%
Q2 VS. Q3 PERCENTAGE POINT
DIFFERENCETERRORISM
Q3 2015
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32015
10 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SOARED TO A 10-YEAR HIGH U.S.consumerconfidencejumped18indexpointsinthethirdquartertoascoreof119,thebiggestquarterlyincreaseandthehighestindexforthecountryinNielsen’s10-yearconsumerconfidencehistory.Allthreeconfidenceindicatorsincreasedbydouble-digitpercentagepointsfromthesecondquarter,asoptimisticperceptionsforjobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentionspostedthehighestlevelsonrecordforthecountrysincethesurvey’sinceptionin2005.
Six-in-10U.S.respondentsbelievedjobprospects(62%)andtheirimmediatespendingcapacity(60%)wouldbegood/excellentinthenext12months,anincreaseof12percentagepointsand16percentagepoints,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.Justunderthree-quarters(74%)wereoptimisticabouttheirpersonalfinancesintheyearahead,aquarterlyincreaseof13percentagepoints.
U.S.discretionaryspendingintentionsalsopostedrecordhighsinthethirdquarter,asplanstobuynewclothes(37%)increased14percentagepoints,spendingonholidays/vacations(37%)increased19percentagepointsandplanstospendonnewtechnology(31%)andhomeimprovementprojects(31%)increased18percentagepointsand16percentagepoints,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.Thosethatsaidtheyhadnosparecashdeclined14percentagepointstothelowestlevelforthecountry(13%)since2005.
“U.S.consumershaveplentytofeelgoodaboutasunemploymentlevelsarelower,wagesarehigherandsavingsfromlowergasolinepricesarereallocatedtootherspendingpriorities,”saidJamesRusso,seniorvicepresident,NielsenGlobalConsumerInsights.“Butwhileyear-over-yearconsumer-packagedgooddollarsalesareup2.6%yeartodatethroughSeptember,wearestillseeingspendingrestraint,asunitsalesareflat(0.2%)andall-outletshoppingtripshavebeenonadownwarddeclinesince2011.Asweheadintotheholidayspendingseason,aNielsenforecastpredictsa2%increaseindollarsales.”
11Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
ConsumerconfidenceinCanadadeclinedonepointto97fromthesecondquarter,maintaininganear-baselinescoreforthreeconsecutivequarters.Personalfinancesentimentincreasedsixpercentagepointsinthethirdquarterto60%,andimmediatespendingintentionsalsoincreased,risingtwopercentagepointsto43%.Conversely,jobprospectsentimentdeclinedfivepercentagepointsto40%fromthesecondquarter,andrecessionarysentimentjumpedfrom46%inthesecondquarterto71%inthethirdquarter—thebiggestriseof60countries.
U.S. ECONOMIC CONCERN LEVELS DECLINE; SPENDING INTENTIONS INCREASE
BIGGEST AND SECOND-BIGGEST CONCERNS IN NEXT SIX MONTHS, QUARTERLY AVERAGE
ECONOMIC CONCERNS
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING/SAVING INTENTIONS
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32015
*Economicconcernsdataisaquarterlyaverageforeachyear.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015
28%33%40%41%
42%44%
48%
20%
33%
48%
19%28%
37%31% 31%37%
HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS
NEW TECHNOLOGY
PRODUCTS
HOME IMPROVEMENTS
NEW CLOTHES
OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT
PAYING DEBTSRETIREMENTSAVINGSINVESTING
+19 +18 +16 +14 +12 +11 +10 +10 +6
Q3 VS. Q2 PERCENTAGE-POINT DIFFERENCE Q3 2015
12 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
EUROPEAN CONFIDENCE SHOWED A STEADY, UPHILL CLIMB ConsumerconfidencegrewthroughouttheEuropeanregioninthethirdquarter,as21of32markets(66%)showedindexscoreimprovementsfromthesecondquarter.ConfidenceinGermany,theregion’slargesteconomy,increasedthreeindexpointsto100.IntheU.K.,confidenceincreasedfortheseventhconsecutivequarter,risingfourpointsinthethirdquartertoascoreof103—thehighestscoreforthecountrysince2005,thefirstyearofthesurvey,anditsfirstabove-the-baselinescoresince2006.
“Overall,theU.K.economyisinbettershapethanmostotherEuropeancountries,astheunemploymentrateisdownandwageinflationisrisingfasterthangeneralinflation,”saidSteveSmith,marketleader,NielsenU.K.andIreland.“Shoppersarealsoseeingthebenefitoflowerfuelandenergycosts,andhouseholdsareredirectingspendingproportionatelytonon-fooditemssuchasphones,autos,andvacations.Withinfoodandgrocery,thecategorieswiththestrongestvolumegrowthcontinuetobethemoreexpandablecategoriesofbeverages,confectioneryandsnacks,whicharetypicallydrivenbypromotionsandbrandedinnovation.”“InGermany,consumershaveassessedtheirpersonalfinancialsituationmorepositively,astheongoingupbeatdevelopmentsinthelabormarketcontinue,”saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“ThesolidupswingoftheGermaneconomyisalsoreflectedinanincreasedconsumersentimentonspending.Nevertheless,whilethemajorityofGermanconsumersareoptimisticaboutthefuture,currentevents,suchastherefugeeissue,areweighingonGermans,asconcernsaboutterrorismandimmigrationhavegrownnotablyinthethirdquarter.”Regionally,confidenceincreasedmostinPoland(80)andPortugal(66),rising10andnineindexpoints,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.Italy’sscoreof57increasedfourpointsfromthesecondquarterandFranceheldsteadywithascoreof66.Meanwhile,confidenceinallNordiccountriesinthesurveydeclinedinthethirdquarter:Finlanddecreasedfourpointsto62,Denmarkdecreasedthreepointsto109,andNorway(87)andSweden(87)decreasedonepointeachfromthesecondquarter.
13Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
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“InPoland,consumerconfidencereachedthehighestscoresince2010,asunemploymentfelltothelowestratesince2008,andarecord-hotsummerboostedtourism,”saidSzymonMordasiewicz,managingdirector,NielsenPoland.“Spendingonfast-movingconsumergoodsalsopickedup,asnominalgrowthincreased1.5%,comparedtosecondquarter2014.Private-labelproductsareperformingbetterthanbrand-nameproducts,drivenbydominanceinthediscountretailchannel.”
“Italy’sconsumerconfidenceimprovementreturnedtotheQ12015level,thehighestsince2011,”saidGiovanniFantasia,marketleader,NielsenItaly.“Wesawincreasesinboththesentimenttowardjobsandpersonalfinances.Totalfast-movingconsumergoodsvaluesalesincreased1.5%inthefirsteightmonthsof2015,drivenbyconsumptionincreasesbymoreaffluentfamiliesintheNorthernpartofthecountry.Signsofhouseholdconsumptionweakness,however,arecomingfrompoorerfamiliesinthesouthernpartofthecountry.”
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32015
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN 21 OF 32 EUROPEAN MARKETS IN Q3
Denmark
U.K.
Germany
Netherlands
Switzerland
CzechRepublic
Israel
Ireland
Lithuania
Norway
Sweden
Austria
Turkey
Romania
Belgium
Slovakia
Estonia
Poland
Bulgaria
Spain
Latvia
Russia
France
Portugal
Slovenia
Croatia
Finland
Hungary
Serbia
Italy
Greece
Ukraine
INDEXQ3 2015
CHANGEFROM Q2 2015
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
109
103
100
97
96
95
94
93
88
87
87
86
84
84
84
81
80
80
77
75
74
74
66
66
65
64
62
61
58
57
53
51
-3
+4
+3
+7
-2
+7
+2
+5
+5
-1
-1
+1
-3
+6
+1
+6
-2
+10
+4
+3
-5
-4
0
+9
+4
+5
-4
+6
+5
+4
0
+3
14 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC WAS DOWN; RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT WAS ON THE RISE Consumerconfidencedeclinedineightof14countriesintheAsia-Pacificregionforanoverallscoreof106,adeclineofoneindexpointfromthesecondquarter.AustraliaandSouthKoreaeachshowedthebiggestquarterlyconfidenceincreasesintheregionoffourpoints,risingtoscoresof93and49,respectively.Conversely,confidencedeclined12pointsinTaiwan(72),11pointsinMalaysia(78)andsixpointsinHongKong(99),thebiggestdeclinesreportedglobally.ConfidencealsodecreasedonepointinChina(106),threepointsinJapan(80)andwasflatinIndia(131)fromthesecondquarter.
Recessionarysentimentincreasedbydouble-digitpercentagepointsinHongKong(+17pp),Malaysia(+16pp),Taiwan(+15pp)andIndonesia(+10pp),andrecessionarysentimentlevelswereamongthehighestinSouthKorea(89%),Malaysia(89%)andTaiwan(88%).
“InHongKong,arecessionarymindsetpermeatedconsumersentimentformorethanhalfofrespondents(56%)asconsumerconfidencedeclineddramaticallyinthethirdquarter,”saidYanXuan,president,NielsenGreaterChina.“Asprivateconsumptiongrowthslowedby2.8%andexportsdroppedby1.3%,laborforcesarefeelingthepainfromtheeconomicslowdown.Additionally,theplungeinstockandcommoditypricesby30%-40%inAugust-Septemberhastakenatoll.”
15Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
“InMalaysia,currencydevaluationofatleast25%haspotentiallyimpactedtheperceptionoftheeconomicstrengthofthecountry,whiletheactualimpactintermsofrisingpricesduetoimportcostshasnotyethitconsumers’pockets,”saidRichardHall,countrymanager,NielsenMalaysia.“Theconcernsoverrisingfoodpricesthatwereprevalentinthesecondquarterhavesubsided,andpoliticalstabilityisnowthesecond-highestconcern,asrecenthigh-profiledemonstrationsandpoliticalheadlinesdominatethemedia.”
“Taiwaneseconsumerconfidencedroppeddramaticallyinthethirdquarter,drivenbydouble-digitdeclinesinbothjobprospectsandspendingwillingness,”saidAndyHuang,managingdirector,NielsenTaiwan.“Risingconcernsaboutthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandwork/lifebalanceissuesdominateconsumersentimentinthecountry.Fast-movingconsumergoodsvaluesalesthroughAugust2015remainedflat,andweexpectconsumerspendingtoremainweakintheshort-term.”
“Indianconsumerscontinuetodeclarearesilientoutlookinthefaceofuncertaintyinthebroadereconomy,”saidRooseveltD’Souza,seniorvicepresident,NielsenIndiaRegion.“Whiletheirconfidenceappearstosustainattheprevioushighlevels,thestateoftheeconomy,deficitmonsoonsandvolatilityinthejobmarketareprevailingissuesintheregion.Thatsaid,thebeliefinthefundamentalprospectsofIndia’seconomicfutureappearunshakenandtheproportionofconsumerswhoseebrighterdaysaheadaregrowingandbeingreflectedinanincreaseinvolumegrowthwithinpackagedconsumergoods.Nevertheless,itispossiblethatanyuptickinconsumerspendingismorelikelytobestimulatedbysmartmarketingandasurgeinactivityledbye-commerceplayersasweapproachthefestiveseason.Withasofterinterestratedirection,inflationundercontrolandtheoutlookthattheeconomyislikelytograduallyrevivetopreviouslevelsoverthenext12months,India’sconsumermarketwillcontinuetoworkitswaytowardsamoregradualbuoyancy.”
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand
China
Vietnam
Singapore
HongKong
NewZealand
Australia
Japan
Malaysia
Taiwan
SouthKorea
131
117
116
111
106
105
101
99
94
93
80
78
72
49
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN 8 OF 14 ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS IN Q3
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32015
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
INDEXQ3 2015
CHANGEFROM Q2 2015
0
-5
-4
0
-1
+1
+2
-6
-5
+4
-3
-11
-12
+4
16 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
LATIN AMERICANS CONTINUED TO FALL DEEPER INTO A RECESSIONARY MINDSET Consumerconfidencedeclinedinfive-of-sevenLatinAmericanmarketsmeasuredinthethirdquarter,withChile(79)reportingthesteepestdropoffiveindexpointsfromthesecondquarter,followedbyArgentina(78)andColombia(90)withdeclinesofthreepointseachandVenezuela(60)withadeclineoftwopoints.Theregion’slargesteconomy,Brazil,declinedtwopointsto79,thefourthconsecutivequarterofdecliningsentimentandthelowestscoreonrecordforthecountry(i.e.,since2005).Conversely,confidenceincreasedtwopointsinMexico(86)andwasflatinPeru(95).
InBrazil,sentimentfortwoconsumerconfidenceindicatorshitnewlows,asjobprospectsentimentdeclinedfivepercentagepointsto18%,andpersonalfinancesentimentdecreasedtwopercentagepointsto54%.Immediatespendingintentionsincreasedsixpercentagepointsto38%.NearlyallBrazilianrespondentsbelievedtheywereinrecession,asthesentimentincreasedtwopercentagepointsto92%fromthesecondquarter.
“ThechallengingeconomicscenarioinBrazilcontinuestodeteriorate,astheslowdowninGDP,increasinginflation,steepcurrencydevaluationandhigherunemploymentratetakeatoll,”saidLuisArjona,countrymanager,NielsenBrazil.“Tocopewiththesituation,householdsaremodifyingconsumptionhabitsbyseekingstoreformatswithcompetitiveprices,choosingheavilypromoteditemsandbuildingupstockathomebybuyingbulkormulti-packproducts.Purchasesofconsumerproductsarenowincreasinglyplanned,asconsumersareactivelymakingrationalchoicestobuyproductswithanattractivecost-benefittradeoffandcuttingsuperfluousitems.”
Regionally,the12-monthoutlookforgood/excellentjobprospectsdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto24%,andpersonalfinancessentimentfelltwopercentagepointsto53%.Immediatespendingintentionsincreasedonepercentagepointto33%.Recessionarysentimentgrewintheregion,risingfrom81%inthesecondquarterto84%inthethirdquarter—thehighestofalltheregions.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN 5 OF 7 LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS IN Q3
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32015
PERU
VENEZUELA
ARGENTINA
95
78
60
0
-3
-2
MEXICO
86+2
BRAZIL
79-2
COLOMBIA
90-3
CHILE
79-5
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
INDEXQ3 2015
CHANGEFROM Q2 2015
17Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
MOROCCO MADE ITS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DEBUT MoroccomarkeditsfirstintroductiontotheNielsen’sconsumerconfidencesurveyinthethirdquarterwithascoreof85.Aboutfour-in-10respondentsbelievedtheirjobprospects(38%)andpersonalfinances(42%)wouldbegoodorexcellentinthenext12months,andone-thirdwereoptimisticabouttheirimmediatespendingcapacity(33%).Justoverhalf(51%)believedtheircountrywasinarecession.Jobsecurity(28%),theeconomy(23%)andterrorism(19%)werethebiggestconcernsforrespondentsinthecountry.
“Morocco’seconomyhasbeenabletoachieveeconomicgainsinthelastdecadesandisexpectedtoendtheyearwithgrowth,”saidTamerElAraby,managingdirector,NielsenNorthAfrica&Levant.“However,thisgrowthisn’treflectedintheemploymentrates,whichhaven’tincreasedsubstantiallyandwhichremainlowcomparedtoothermarketsintheregion.ThisexplainswhyjobsecurityisamongthebiggestconcernsforMoroccans.”
Regionally,consumerconfidencedecreasedinthree-of-fivecountriesmeasuredintheMiddleEast/AfricaregionbutincreasedfourpointsinSaudiArabia(109)andfivepointsinEgypt(90)inthesecondquarter.At107,theUnitedArabEmirates(UAE)hadthesecond-highestindexintheregion,butitdecreasedonepointfromthesecondquarter—thesecondconsecutivequarterofdeclinesandthelowestscoreforthecountrysince2013.ConfidencedeclinedfivepointsinSouthAfricato82andonepointinPakistanto101.
“InSouthAfrica,adeclineinconfidencewasnotasurprise,asinterestratesincreasedearlyinthequarterandthevalueoftheRandagainsttheU.S.dollartookasteepdrop,”saidAllenBurch,managingdirector,Nielsensub-SaharanAfrica.“Recessionarysentimentalsoincreasedeightpercentagepointsinthethirdquarter,as81%ofSouthAfricanrespondentsbelievedtheircountrywasinarecession.”
Regionally,sentimentaboutimmediatespendingintentionsincreasedtwopercentagepointsto38%,butsentimentaboutpersonalfinancesandjobprospectsdeclinedtwopercentagepointseachto56%and43%,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.RecessionarysentimentimprovedinEgypt(76%)andPakistan(68%)fromthesecondquarter,butworsenedintheUAE(43%),SaudiArabia(48%)andSouthAfrica(81).
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
INDEXQ3 2015
CHANGEFROM Q2 2015
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECREASED IN THREE OF FIVE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS IN Q3
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32015
*MoroccowasaddedtotheNielsenGlobal
SurveyinQ32015.
+4
-1
-1
N/A
-5
+5
SAUDI ARABIA
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
PAKISTAN
MOROCCO*
SOUTH AFRICA
EGYPT
109
107
101
85
82
90
18 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONFIDENCE ROSE IN KENYA AND GHANA, BUT DECLINED IN NIGERIAConsumerconfidenceincreasedfiveindexpointsinKenya(117)andfivepointsinGhana(99)inthethirdquarter.Conversely,confidencedecreasedfivepointsinNigeria(127),thesecondconsecutivequarterofdeclines.
“TheconfidencescoreinNigeria,whilestilloverwhelminglypositive,islikelyareflectionofthemorerecent‘moderateeconomicoutlook’drivenbycurrencydevaluation,risingoilprices,foodinflation,anddwindlingconsumerdisposableincome,”saidAllenBurch.“Thishasledtore-prioritizationofwhereconsumersspendmoney,withagreaterfocusonstaplefoodsandbasicnecessitiesandsavingleftoverNairaforarainyday.InKenya,theincreaseinconfidenceisnosurprise,asthetimingofU.S.PresidentObama’svisitlikelyleftpeoplefeelingverypositiveaboutthefuture.BusinesssentimentasmeasuredinNielsen’sAfricaProspectsindicatoralsoshowsKenyaasthetopcountryforbusinessgrowth.”
Kenya,GhanaandNigeriawereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementofconsumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurveymethodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreportconsumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother61countriesoutlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thesethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarketsarenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussedthroughoutthisreport.
TheoutlookforjobsincreasedinGhanaandKenya,risingthreeandtwopercentagepoints,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.Likewise,sentimentforpersonalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentionsalsoincreasedinbothcountries.SeventypercentofKenyarespondentsand67%ofGhanarespondentsbelievedthestateoftheirpersonalfinancesweregoodorexcellent,upthreeandfourpercentagepoints,respectively.Conversely,sentimentforallthreeindicatorsdeclinedinNigeria,withimmediatespendingintentionsdecliningeightpercentagepointsto48%inthethirdquarter.
19Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountriessaidtheydidnothavesparecash(68%inGhana,63%inKenyaand60%inNigeria),levelsthatdecreasedinGhanaandKenyabutincreasedinNigeriafromthesecondquarter.Amongthosewhodidclaimdiscretionaryfunds,savingcontinuedtobeapriorityforthemajority:77%inGhana,87%inKenyaand80%inNigeriaplantoputmoneyintosavingsaccounts.Discretionaryspendingintentionsforhomeimprovementprojectswerethesecond-biggestpriorityamongrespondentsinallthreecountries.
Q3 2015Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32015
Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodolgy
GHANA9997
10299
94
KENYA
117
105
113
104
112
NIGERIA127
123127 129 132
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN NIGERIA AND KENYA
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
20 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Australia 94%
China 47%
HongKong 81%
India 20%
Indonesia 28%
Japan 86%
Malaysia 67%
NewZealand 95%
Philippines 41%
Singapore 80%
South Korea 92%
Taiwan 80%
Thailand 30%
Vietnam 44%
MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*
Ghana 99%
Kenya 68%
Nigeria 64%
COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY
ASIA-PACIFIC
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Egypt 53%
Morocco 61%
Pakistan 15%
SaudiArabia 67%
SouthAfrica 52%
UnitedArabEmirates
96%
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2014
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Canada 95%
U.S. 87%
NORTH AMERICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
EUROPE
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Austria 87%
Belgium 90%
Bulgaria 59%
Croatia 71%
CzechRepublic 78%
Denmark 97%
Estonia 83%
Finland 97%
France 83%
Germany 87%
Greece 60%
Hungary 75%
Ireland 79%
Israel 76%
Italy 59%
Latvia 75%
Lithuania 69%
Netherlands 96%
Norway 95%
Poland 67%
Portugal 65%
Romania 51%
Russia 61%
Serbia 65%
Slovakia 82%
Slovenia 76%
Spain 75%
Sweden 95%
Switzerland 89%
Turkey 57%
U.K. 90%
Ukraine 42%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
LATIN AMERICA
Argentina 75%
Brazil 54%
Chile 67%
Colombia 62%
Mexico 49%
Peru 42%
Venezuela 50%
*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2012
21Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentionswasconductedAug.10-Sept.4,2015andpolledmorethan30,000onlineconsumersin61countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.ThesampleincludesInternetuserswhoagreedtoparticipateinthissurveyandhasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountry.ItisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternetconsumersbycountry.Becausethesampleisbasedonthosewhoagreedtoparticipate,noestimatesoftheoreticalsamplingerrorcanbecalculated.However,aprobabilitysampleofequivalentsizewouldhaveamarginoferrorof±0.6%atthegloballevel.ThisNielsensurveyisbasedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internetpenetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreportingstandardof60%Internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10millionormoreforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndexiscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500respondentsinChina.Thesub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudyarecompiledfromaseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,whichincludestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.
ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenHoldingsplc(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalperformancemanagementcompanythatprovidesacomprehensiveunderstandingofwhatconsumerswatchandbuy.Nielsen’sWatchsegmentprovidesmediaandadvertisingclientswithTotalAudiencemeasurementservicesforalldevicesonwhichcontent-video,audioandtext-isconsumed.TheBuysegmentoffersconsumerpackagedgoodsmanufacturersandretailerstheindustry’sonlyglobalviewofretailperformancemeasurement.ByintegratinginformationfromitsWatchandBuysegmentsandotherdatasources,Nielsenalsoprovidesitsclientswithanalyticsthathelpimproveperformance.Nielsen,anS&P500company,hasoperationsinover100countries,coveringmorethan90%oftheworld’spopulation.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.
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22 QUARTER 3 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT