Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles

7/31/2019 Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles

1/29

b|yfch bd Lobfbjeo _}|melsjlychm Cy}eohl1 Obfs|jly obfdemlfol( lfmb`lfb|s `ybp}g cfm lfmb`lfb|suohls

yhcfmb @bjls

y}eohl efdbyjc}ebf1

oe}l }ges mbo|jlf}1 Byhcfmb @bjls( 9;3;%()Obfs|jly obfdemlfol( lfmb`lfb|s `ybp}g cfm lfmb`lfb|s ouohls)( Ab|yfch bd Lobfbjeo

|mels( Tbh& ?0 Ess1 = {{& ?00 * =;=

yjcflf} hefn }b }ges mbo|jlf}1

{1""mw&mbe&by`"3;&33;7";3==?


2/29

Obfs|jly obfffimlfol(lfmb`lfb|s `ybp}g cfm

lfmb`lfb|s ouohlsByhcfmb @bjl

Lsobhc _|{lyeby ml Obj|feococb _boech 'Efs}e}|}b [bhe}lofeob ml Hesibc%( Hesibf([by}|`ch cfm Lobfbjeos Ylslcyog Olf}ly \femcml ml Eftls}e`cocb ljMlslftbhtejlf}b Lj{ylscyech 'LYO \FEML"E_O]L%( Hesibf( [by}|`ch

Cis}yco}

[|y{bsl ]gl {|y{bl bd }ge {c{ly e }b mltlhb{ `ybp}g jbmlh }gc} ml{cy} dybj }gl obftlf}ebfchdycjlpbyn( ef }gl lfl }gc} obf|j{}ebf mloeebf }cnl ef}b coob|f} {ylteb| {lyebm lw{lo}c}ebfcib|} b|}{|} |o}|c}ebf& Gb|lgbhm pehh ycel }gley {yb{lfe}u }b obf|jl ef {lyebm bd lw{lo}lmlw{cfebf cfm }glu pehh hbply e} ef {gcl bd {ylmeo}cihl ylolebf& _|og c dycjlpbyn chhbpmeo|ebf bd gbp `ybp}g }ylfm jcu il me}|yilm btly }ejl c }gl yl|h} bd ogcf`l ef obf|jlylf}ejlf}&

Mlse`f"jl}gbmbhbù"c{{ybcog Lfmb`lfb| `ybp}g jbmlh cyl `lflychhu mle`flm }b cmmylhbf`*}lyj }ylfm bd `ybp}g& ]glu lw{hcef gbp }gl lobfbju obftly`l pe}g by metly`l dybj cichcfolm `ybp}g {c}g cfm }glu ogcyco}lyeql c``yl`c}l ilgcteby( ètlf }gl b{}ejeqc}ebf {ybihlj dcolmiu c yl{yllf}c}etl c`lf} }gc} jcwejeql obf|j{}ebf |}ehe}u& Ef |og dycjlpbyn( bfhu {b}lf}echb|}{|} jc}}ly cfm chh mloeebf( iu ffiyj cfm gb|lgbhm( cyl }cnlf bf }gl c|j{}ebf }gc} cfulw{lo}c}ebf bf }gl tch|l bd }gl b|}{|} `c{ mb fb} ef}lydlyl pe}g }gl c`lf} ilgcteby& Ef}ybm|oefòbf|jly lf}ejlf}( c obftlf}ebfch `ybp}g jbmlh e jbmeffilm ef bymly }b |fmly}cfm gbp lddlo}etlb|}{|} ltlf}|chhu mltec}l dybj }gl ichcfolm `ybp}g {c}g&

Defmef`s ]gl {yb{blm dycjlpbyn chhbp bfl }b ef}ybm|ol fbfheflcy mufcjeo ef}b }gl jbmlh(

jcnef` e} dlceihl }b bi}cef( dby ylcbfcihl {cycjl}ly tch|l( lfmb`lfb| |o}|c}ebf& ]gll cyl}ye``lylm iu c Flejcyn*_conly ied|yoc}ebf&

Byeèfche}u"tch|l Iu ef}ybm|oef` obf|jly obfffimlfol by obf|jly lf}ejlf}( e} e {beihl }bef}l`yc}l }gl ltch|c}ebf bd `ybp}g cfm ouohl ef}b c |feffilm dycjlpbyn& E} e {beihl }b lw{hcefi|efl ouohl c }gl yl|h} bd }gl obf|jly ylco}ebf }b }gl lw{lo}lm {lydbyjcfol bd }gl lobfbjeou}lj&

Nlupbyms Obf|jly ilgcteb|y( Obf|j{}ebf( I|efl mltlhb{jlf}

[c{ly }u{l Yllcyog {c{ly

3& Ef}ybm|o}ebf_}cfmcym `ybp}g jbmlh objjbfhu btlyhbbn cfu {beihl ylco}ebf bd gb|lgbhm

ylhc}etlhu }b gby}*y|f lobfbjeo {lydbyjcfol 'e&l& }b i|efl ouohl%& _|og `ybp}gjbmlh cyl hbf` }lyj {cycme`j( pglyl c {lyjcflf} obefoemlfol il}pllf lddlo}etlb|}{|} cfm {b}lf}ech b|}{|} e ej{heoe}hu c|jlm& Ef }ge {c{ly( pl ylef}ly{yl} }gl

]gl o|yylf} e|l cfm d|hh }lw} cyogetl bd }ge ab|yfch e ctcehcihl c}

ppp&ljlychmefse`g}&obj";3==*?


3/29

obftlf}ebfch CN lfmb`lfb| `ybp}g jbmlh pglf }ge e jbmeffilm }b efoh|mlobf|jly yl{bfl }b lw{lo}lm mltec}ebf bd b|}{|} ylhc}etlhu }b e} {b}lf}ech hltlh&]ge yl{bfl ylhc}l }b c ej{hl jlogcfej }gc} eftbhtl obfffimlfol1 pglf {c}lw{lo}c}ebf bf }gl b|}{|} `c{ cyl u}ljc}eochhu {be}etl( mljcfm eml c`lf} ilobjl

efoylcef`hu obfffimlf}( cfm }glu pehh obf|jl cf cjb|f} bd ylb|yol }gc} e}lfmlfoechhu ge`gly }gcf }gl obf|j{}ebf hltlh mlyetlm dybj }gl ilfogjcyn `ybp}gjbmlh '}gl b{}ejch obf|j{}ebf hltlh bd c Ycjlu*henl l}|{ by }gl obf|j{}ebf hltlh}gc} cyel dybj c|jef` c obf}cf} jcyèfch {yb{lfe}u }b ctl%> ed( ch}lyfc}etlhu( }gllw{lo}lm b|}{|} `c{ obyyl{bfm }b fl`c}etl tch|l( }glf }gl obf}lj{bycflb| hltlh bdobf|j{}ebf dchh ilhbp }gl yldlylfol hltlh&

Ef }gl dycjlpbyn }b cmmyl( }gl bfhu c|jlm dbyj bd gl}lyb`lfle}u cjbf` c`lf}e db|fm bf }gl }ejef` bd dbyjc}ebf bd lw{lo}c}ebf& Chh c`lf} dbyj|hc}l lw{lo}c}ebfbf }gl o|yylf} tch|l bd }gl b|}{|} `c{ i|} ylby}ef` }b jbyl by hl b|}mc}lmefdbyjc}ebf( c ef }gl }eonu efdbyjc}ebf jbfl}cyu jbmlh bd Jcfnep cfm Yle '9;;9%&]b`l}gly pe}g }ge c|j{}ebf( pl obfemly c obf}cf} `cef cmc{}etl hlcyfef` y|hl dby}gl dbyjc}ebf bd }gl lw{lo}c}ebf( ej{huef` }gc} o|yylf} obf|j{}ebf pehh ilef|lfolm( ef {yco}eol( iu {c} yl|h} bf }gl b|}{|} `c{ hltlh&

]gl mloyeilm jlogcfej ef}lfm }b cmm ylchej }b }gl ej{hl `ybp}g jbmlh& E} eplhh cool{}lm iu }gl lobfbjeo {ybdlebf }gc} gb|lgbhm ef dco} }cnl ef}b coob|f}gby}*}lyj jcoyblobfbjeo |o}|c}ebf ef bymly }b {hcf }gley efobjl chhboc}ebfmloeebf& Hefn il}pllf obf|jly obfffimlfol cfm i|efl ouohl gctl illflw}lfetlhu yl{by}lm ef }gl lj{eyeoch he}lyc}|yl1 dby ef}cfol( ]cuhby cfm JoFcii '9;;0%ffifm ltemlfol bd oc|che}u il}pllf @M[ jbtljlf} cfm obf|jly obfffimlfol efmlwl(dby ltlych bd }gl jb} ej{by}cf} lobfbjel ef L|yb{l '\N( Dycfol( E}chu cfm }glFl}glyhcfm%& C ejehcy obfoh|ebf e ge`ghe`g}lm iu @bg '9;;?% dby }gl lobfbju bdFlp Qlchcfm> }ge c|}gby( ef {cy}eo|hcy( }c}l }gc} obf|jly obfffimlfol yllo}o|yylf} lobfbjeo obfme}ebf( pgeog obfffiyj }gl ylcbfciehe}u bd b|y c|j{}ebf1

gb|lgbhm cyl ef|lfolm iu }gl {lyoletlm jcoyb {lydbyjcfol cfm pehh cmb{} c jbylby hl lf}g|ec}eo c}}e}|ml }bpcym obf|j{}ebf coobymef`hu&

_bjl c|}gby yljcyn }gc} }gl obf|jly lf}ejlf} e bd}lf ieclm cfm mbl fb}yllo} lwco}hu }gl }y|l cj{he}|ml bd i|efl ouohl 'e} e }gl ocl bd _b|hlhl '9;;=%(pgb }|mel obf|jly obfffimlfol dby }gl Cjlyeocf }c}l bd Jeoge`cf%> fltly}glhl(ltlf pglf }gl lw}lf} bd }gl ylhc}ebf il}pllf }gl ouohl cfm obf|jly lf}ejlf} cfmc}}e}|ml e s|l}ebfcihl( e} llj |fylcbfcihl }b myb{ obj{hl}lhu }ge ylhc}ebf c e}gc{{lf ef jb} bd }gl obf}lj{bycflb| `ybp}g cfchue&

Fb}l }gc} b|y cy`|jlf} ocf il l{cyc}lm ef }pb oc|ch ylhc}ebf1 ffiy}( ouohlef|lfol obf|jly obfffimlfol> lobfm( obfffimlfol c|}bjc}eochhu `lflyc}l c ylco}ebfef }lyj bd }gl ylhc}etl hltlh bd obf|j{}ebf b|} bd efobjl& ]gl lobfm ylhc}ebf e ltlfhl |ialo} }b mb|i} }gcf }gl ffiy}& _}|mel henl Iycj cfm H|mte`bf '3557%( _b|hlhl

'9;;=%( Mebf '9;;4% cfm Bdffioly '9;;0% ohlcyhu yltlch }gc} ge`gly obfffimlfol e ylhc}lm }bhbply ctef`( ètlf }gl hbèoch cy`|jlf} }gc} efoylcl ef lw{lo}lm d|}|yl ylb|yolylm|ol }gl }ylf`}g bd }gl {yloc|}ebfcyu jb}etl }b ctl& Gbpltly( bjl b}gly c|}gby(henl Oyb|gbyl '9;;


4/29

efoh|ml ef c }glbyl}eoch dycjlpbyn }gc} cej c} objiefef` }gl ltemlfol bf ouoheochjbtljlf} pe}g cf lw{hcfc}ebf bd hbf` y|f `ybp}g&

Icon }b b|y jbmlhef` l}|{( pl gb|hm }yl }gc} }gl ej{hl cmme}ebfch c|j{}ebf}gc} pl ef}ybm|ol {ybtbnl ylhltcf} ogcf`l btly }gl pcu bfl |fmly}cfm }gl `ybp}g

{ybol& ]ge e fb hbf`ly eftcyecihu jc}lyecheqlm ef c }lcmu }c}l {be}etl obf}cf}`ybp}g yc}l }gc} yljcef |fogcf`lm |fhl bjl lwb`lfb| me}|yicfol boo|y> ef}lcm(}gl yl{bfl bd obf|jly }b mltec}ebf dybj }gl lw{lo}lm {b}lf}ech b|}{|} je`g} ej{hu(dby ylcbfcihl {cycjl}ly tch|l 'l&`& }logfbhb`u hltlh( ctef` yc}l cfm meob|f} dco}by%(ltlyhc}ef` |o}|c}ebf ef }gl `ybp}g yc}l bd }gl jcef lobfbjeo c``yl`c}l& Llf}echhu(bfl jcu efdly dybj }gl cfchue }gc} i|efl ouohl cyl( |fmly oly}cef oeyo|j}cfol( lhd|}ceflm( e&l& iloc|l mltec}ebf dybj }gl bilytcihl `ybp}g }ylfm mb lwe}( gb|lgbhmpehh jbmedu }gley ilgcteby( cfm }gll u}ljc}eo ogcf`l bf ilgcteby efm|ol ouohl }b{lye}( bye`efc}ef` c {ybol }gc} }lfm }b yl{lc} e}lhd lfmhlhu& C ejehcy jbmlhef`l}|{ e cmb{}lm iu @bjl '9;;5% }b }|mu hboch mufcjeo {yb{ly}el bd c `ybp}g jbmlhpglyl c`lf} yl{bfl }b b|}{|} |o}|c}ebf e coob|f}lm dby 'ef }ge ocl( fb} bfhu }globf|jly yl{bfl i|} chb }gl ylco}ebf bd }gl ffiyj cfm bd }gl `btlyfjlf}%&

]gl cfchue pl mltlhb{ jcu il cboec}lm pe}g }gl he}lyc}|yl bf lfmb`lfb|i|efl ouohl 'LIO%( c }ycfm bd }gb|`g} }gc} a|}effil lobfbjeo |o}|c}ebf }gyb|`gc|j{}ebf }gc} ej{hu fbfheflcy jbmlhef` }y|o}|yl( pgeog cyl cihl }b `lflyc}l hbf`}lyj ouoheoch ilgcteby }gc} objjbfhu cyel cd}ly bjl }u{l bd ied|yoc}ebf '}gc} e{ybtbnlm iu c ogcf`l ef c {cycjl}ly tch|l%& ]ge he}lyc}|yl `bl icon }b }gl ef|lf}echpbyn iu _}|}qly '357;%( Ilfgciei cfm Mcu '3573%( Mcu '3579%( @ycfmjbf} '357 ylhltcf}obf}yei|}ebf c} }ge hltlh efoh|ml Ogye}ecfb cfm Gcyyebf '3555%( _ogje}}*@ybgl '9;;;%(@|b cfm Hcfef` '9;;9%( @blfnc cfm [b|hlf '9;;=% cfm Ob|yu cfm Plf '9;;


5/29

]gl yljcefmly bd }gl {c{ly e by`cfeqlm c dbhhbp& _lo}ebf 9 mltlhb{ }gllfmb`lfb| `ybp}g jbmlh pe}g obf|jly obfffimlfol ef c olfcyeb pglyl fbb{}ejeqc}ebf iu c yl{yllf}c}etl obf|jly e c|jlm& _lo}ebf ? yl{lc} }gl cfchuebd lo}ebf 9 dby c jbmlh pe}g lw{lo}lm obf|j{}ebf |}ehe}u jcwejeqc}ebf& Ef ib}g

lo}ebf( }gl hboch {yb{ly}el bd }gl jbmlh cyl lw{hbylm cfm `hbich mufcjeo cylmeo|lm }gyb|`g c f|jlyeoch"`yc{geoch cfchue& Defchhu( lo}ebf = obfoh|ml&

9& ]gl jbmlh pe}g c obfs}cf} {yb{lfse}u }b sctlObfemly c }u{eoch ohblm lobfbju pglyl `btlyfjlf} ef}lytlf}ebf e cilf}& Hl} u}( n}( e}cfm o} il }gl hltlh bd {ly oc{e}c b|}{|}( {gueoch oc{e}ch( eftl}jlf} cfm obf|j{}ebf(yl{lo}etlhu( cfm c|jl }gc} }gl `ybp}g yc}l bd {b{|hc}ebf"hciby e qlyb& Oc{e}chcoo|j|hc}ebf e mlffiflm c eftl}jlf} hl oc{e}ch ml{yloec}ebf( n}3 9 n} e}9 mn}(pe}g m& ; }gl ml{yloec}ebf yc}l cfm n; ètlf& Pl }cnl c plhh }gl hltlh bd eftl}jlf} cobyyl{bfmef` }b gb|lgbhm ctef`( e&l& e} u}9 o}& \fmly }gl }cfmcym _bhbp oc{e}chcoo|j|hc}ebf ls|c}ebf( obf|j{}ebf yl{lo} }b c ffiwlm cjb|f} bd b|}{|} by efobjl( }gc}

e( obf|jly cmb{} }gl ej{hl} {beihl y|hl1 }gl jcyèfch {yb{lfe}u }b obf|jl mblfb} ogcf`l btly }ejl( |fhl bjl lwb`lfb| me}|yicfol boo|y&Btly }ge iceo `ybp}g }y|o}|yl( pl ef}ybm|ol }gl ogcf`l |``l}lm iu }gl

c|j{}ebf ef }gl dbhhbpef` {cyc`yc{g&

9&3 Jcef css|j{}ebfObf|jly ylco} }b {c} lw{lo}c}ebf bf }gl o|yylf} tch|l bd }gl b|}{|} `c{ pglfogbbef` gbp j|og }b obf|jl& ]glyl e }eonu efdbyjc}ebf obfolyfef` }gl dbyjc}ebf bdlw{lo}c}ebf( jlcfef` }gc} lcog c`lf} pehh |{mc}l gly lw{lo}c}ebf bfhu {bycmeochhu> cc yl|h}( }gl efdbyjc}ebf |{mc}ef` pehh il ètlf iu c [bebf me}yei|}ebf( pgc}( ef }|yf(ej{hel }gc} lcog c`lf} gc cf ls|ch {ybiciehe}u bd ilef` bfl bd }gl obf|jly |{mc}ef`lw{lo}c}ebf bf }gl b|}{|} `c{ ylby}ef` }b }gl jb} ylolf} efdbyjc}ebf&

Ed }gl c``yl`c}ebf bd }gl yldlyylm lw{lo}c}ebf {bef} }b cf lw{lo}lm {be}etlmeddlylfol il}pllf lddlo}etl cfm {b}lf}ech b|}{|}"efobjl( }glf c``yl`c}l obf|j{}ebfpehh il jbyl }gcf {yb{by}ebfch ylhc}etlhu }b }bmcu efobjl& Ed lw{lo}c}ebf bf }glb|}{|} `c{ cyl fl`c}etl( }glf obf}lj{bycflb| c``yl`c}l obf|j{}ebf pehh il hl}gcf {yb{by}ebfch ylhc}etlhu }b }gl {yllf} cjb|f} bd c``yl`c}l efobjl&

]gl {ylteb| c|j{}ebf efmeoc}l }gc} }gl dycjlpbyn pl cyl {yb{bef` pehh bfhuyllo} }gl }yetech oc{e}ch coo|j|hc}ebf {ybol bd `ybp}g jbmlh ed }gl {c} lw{lo}c}ebfbf }gl b|}{|} `c{ obyyl{bfm bf ctlyc`l }b c f|hh tch|l> ef b}gly pbym( }gl _bhbpcoo|j|hc}ebf ls|c}ebf e c {cy}eo|hcy cfchue bd `ybp}g pglf obfemlyef` }gc}obf|jly mb fb} ylco} }b lw{lo}lm b|}{|} `c{ by pglf lw{lo}lm b|}{|} `c{ cyl qlyb&

]b dbyjcheql }gl cibtl c|j{}ebf( hl} w} il }gl b|}{|} `c{ jlc|ylm ef hb`'w} hfu}9 hfu

!

}( pe}g u!

} }gl {b}lf}ech hltlh bd {ly oc{e}c b|}{|}> }ge e c tcyecihl }gc}e |{{blm }b dbhhbp c `ybp}g }ylfm obyyl{bfmef` }b }gl ichcfolm `ybp}g {c}g%&Obfemly }gl ocl pglyl }gl lw{lo}lm b|}{|} `c{ e qlyb c }gl ilfogjcyn ocl( b }gc}

s ^ ';(3% mlffifl }gl jcyèfch {yb{lfe}u }b ctl 'ctef` yc}l% pglf L}93w} L}99w} & & & L} fw} ;( pe}g L}9a }gl lw{lo}c}ebf dbyjlm a {lyebm c`b dby }glo|yylf} tch|l bd }gl b|}{|} `c{ cfm f }gl f|jily bd {c} {lyebm }gc} cyl ylhltcf} ef}lyj bd dbyjc}ebf bd lw{lo}c}ebf 'ed obf|jly dbyj }gley lw{lo}c}ebf bf }gl o|yylf}tch|l bd }gl b|}{|} `c{ ildbyl {lyebm }9 f( }glf |og lw{lo}c}ebf cyl obfemlylmeyylhltcf} ef }lyj bd ej{co} btly o|yylf} obf|j{}ebf mloeebf%&

AL_?0(=

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6/29

[ly oc{e}c obf|j{}ebf e `etlf iu o} '39s% u}`'L}93'w}%(L}99'w}%(& & &(L}9f'w}%%&Coobymef` }b b|y jcef c|j{}ebf( `';(;( & & & (;% 3( `'L}93'w}%( L}99'w}%(& & &(L}9f'w}%%& 3ed }gl ple`g}lm ctlyc`l bd L}9 3'w}%(L}9 9'w}%& & &(L}9f'w}% e {be}etl( cfm

`'L}93'w}%(L}99'w}%(& & &(L}9f'w}%%( 3 ed }gl ple`g}lm ctlyc`l bd }gl lw{lo}c}ebf bf }gl

b|}{|} `c{ e fl`c}etl> ilhbp pl pehh cmmyl }gl pcu }gll ctlyc`l cyl obj{|}lm&Dybj cf lobfbjeo {bef} bd telp( pl cyl }c}ef` }gc} }gl hltlh bd obf|j{}ebf e c

ffiwlm {lyolf}c`l bd b|}{|} '3*s% ed fb b|}{|} `c{ e l}ejc}lm ef }gl {ylteb| {lyebmef}b }gl {yllf}> pglf }gl lw{lo}lm b|}{|} `c{ e( bf ctlyc`l( {be}etl }glf gb|lgbhmpehh ylco} iu yeef` obf|j{}ebf cibtl }gl ilfogjcyn hltlh ef }> ffifchhu( ef }gloeyo|j}cfol pglyl }gl lw{lo}lm b|}{|} `c{ e {ylmbjefcf}hu fl`c}etl ef {ylteb|{lyebm( }gl ylco}ebf bd obf|jly pehh il hbplyef` obf|j{}ebf hltlh ef }d|y}gly cfmd|y}gly ilhbp }gl ilfogjcyn hltlh c }gl dbyloc}lm b|}{|} `c{ pemlf&

]glyldbyl( pl cyl iceochhu mlffifef` c jlogcfej bd yl{bfl bd gb|lgbhmylhc}etlhu }b lw{lo}lm i|efl ouohl> ef cf lw{lo}lmhu dctbycihl {gcl bd }gl i|eflouohl( c`lf} pehh il jbyl b{}eje}eo cfm pehh ylco} iu c{{huef` c hcy`ly gcyl bd }gleyme{bcihl efobjl }b obf|j{}ebf> henlpel( ed }gl {ylolmlf} }ejl {lyebm efmeoc}l cylolebf {gcl( }gl ylco}ebf e }b ylm|ol }gl obf|j{}ebf gcyl b|} bd efobjl& ]geb{}ejej*{lejej yl{bfl jlogcfej }b lobfbjeo |o}|c}ebf ef}ybm|ol cfej{by}cf} hefn il}pllf }bmcu {ybol bd oc{e}ch coo|j|hc}ebf cfm obf|j{}ebf( cfmlobfbjeo {lydbyjcfol lw{lo}lm ef }gl {c}> d|y}glyjbyl( e} c}}yei|}l }b gb|lgbhm cybhl }gc} e objjbfhu cilf} ef }ge nefm bd lobfbjeo cfchue1 }glu cyl fb hbf`ly plhhefdbyjlm c`lf} d|hhu cpcyl bd }gl lobfbju `ybp}g }ylfm cfm eflfe}etl }b cfu b}glydco}by> yc}gly( }glu efoby{byc}l ef }gley mloeebf cib|} efobjl chhboc}ebf cf cma|}jlf}}lyj }gc} yllo} gbp }gl lobfbju e lw{lo}lm }b jbtl ef }gl gby} y|f& Iloc|l }geflp dycjlpbyn e cihl }b {ybm|ol lfmb`lfb| ouohl |fmly bjl oeyo|j}cfol( plje`g} cu }gc} ouohl cyl lhd* d|hffihhef`1 }glu lwe} c }gl yl|h} bd }gl c`lf} ylco}ebf }b}gley lwe}lfol& ]gl ylhltcfol bd {c} lw{lo}c}ebf }b obf}lj{bycflb| mloeebf bd

lobfbjeo c`lf} gc illf ge`ghe`g}lm ef }gl jbfl}cyu {bheou he}lyc}|yl( ef }gl obf}lw} bd}eonu efdbyjc}ebf jbmlh 'll Jcfnep cfm Yle '9;;9%%&

Pl mlffifl d|fo}ebf `L}93w}>L}99w}> 111>L}9fw} c c obf}ef|b|( {be}etl cfmefoylcef` d|fo}ebf }gc} bilu }b }gl {ylteb|hu l} obfme}ebf `;> ;> & & & > ; 3& ]glcfchu}eoch }yco}ciehe}u bd }gl jbmlh yls|eyl c {loeffio d|fo}ebfch dbyj> }gl dbhhbpef`d|fo}ebf obf}lj{hc}l }gl yldlyylm {yb{ly}el1 ` lw{ct

[fa;39 t

aL}939aw}(pe}g c & ; c {cycjl}ly yllo}ef` }gl ej{co} bd lw{lo}lm mltec}ebf bd }gl efobjl hltlhylhc}etlhu }b e} {b}lf}ech tch|l bf }gl obf|j{}ebf mloeebf cfm t^ ;> 3 }gl ml`yllbd efdbyjc}ebf }eonefl& Edt 3( chh obf|jly |{mc}l efdbyjc}ebf c} }ejl jbjlf}}9 3 '`lflyc}ef` dbyloc} bf w} ef |og jbjlf}%> }gl hbply }gl tch|l bdt( }gl jbylple`g} dcy ef }gl {c} lw{lo}c}ebf pehh gctl ef }gl dbyjc}ebf bd c``yl`c}l lw{lo}c}ebfbf }gl tch|l bd w}&

C} }ge {bef}( bfl fllm }b cmmyl gbp lw{lo}c}ebf cyl dbyjlm& \fmly yc}ebfchlw{lo}c}ebf( ` lw{ctw}

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a> ef }gl heje} ocl( pglyl chh {c}lw{lo}c}ebf jc}}ly f#3( }gl d|fo}ebf ylm|ol }b ` lw{ cw} & Ef }ge ocl(obf|j{}ebf mloeebf pehh ej{hu ylco} }b }gl obf}lj{bycflb| b|}{|} `c{&Ch}lyfc}etlhu( pl jcu obfemly c {ybol bd cmc{}etl hlcyfef` pe}g c obf}cf} `cefls|lfol 'c ef Olhhcyely '9;;4%( ef |og ocl obfolyfef` }gl dbyjc}ebf bd lfmb`lfb|ouohl ef c `ybp}g l}}ef` pglyl hlcyfef` e cboec}lm }b ef{|} {yeol%& ]ge nefm bdhlcyfef` {ybol( }gc} ef {yco}eol obyyl{bfm }b c ej{hl cmc{}etl lw{lo}c}ebf y|hl( e

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henlhu }b }cnl {hcol( coobymef` }b ]|ef}yc cfm Pc`lfly '9;;0%( pglf fbf*}c}ebfcyutcyecihl cyl }cnlf ef}b coob|f} 'fb}l }gc} }gl tcyecihl pl obfemly ef }gl c|jlm`ybp}g jbmlh cyl fbf*}c}ebfcyu `etlf }gl lfmb`lfb| fc}|yl bd }gl `ybp}g {ybol1}glu `ybp btly }ejl c} c obf}cf} yc}l ef}lcm bd ilef` }lcmu }c}l }c}ebfcyu tcyecihl%&

Pe}g fbf*}c}ebfcyu tcyecihl }gl `cef ls|lfol yljcef ib|fmlm cibtl qlyb 'pgehl dby}c}ebfcyu tcyecihl }gl `cef ls|lfol e mloylcef` cfm( }g|( cuj{}b}eochhu qlyb%&

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( a 3> 9> & & & > f> t ^;> 3 '}ge e }gl `cef tch|l% cfm w! ; }gl }lcmu }c}l b|}{|} `c{& \fmly }gelw{lo}c}ebf dbyjc}ebf c|j{}ebf( bfl ocf ylpye}l d|fo}ebf ` c

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a;39 taw}939a& Hl} c > ctt & ;> ylochhef` }gl mlffife}ebf bd

}gl b|}{|} `c{( cf ls|etchlf} {yllf}c}ebf bd }ge d|fo}ebf ilobjl1

`w}93>w}99> 111>w}9f Ufa3

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} cfmn} ef ls|c}ebf '3% iu }gl yl{lo}etl ml}ylfmlm tch|l( e} e }yce`g}dbypcym }b lfob|f}ly}gl dbhhbpef` ls|c}ebf 'fb}l }gc} }gl {ybm|o}ebf d|fo}ebf e gbjb`lflb| bd ml`yll bfl%1

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[3& ]gl oc{e}ch coo|j|hc}ebf ls|c}ebf pe}g obf|j{}ebf hltlh cma|}lm }blw{lo}lm lobfbjeo {lydbyjcfol gc c |fes|l }lcmu }c}l( pglyl }glml}ylfmlm {ly oc{e}c tch|l obyyl{bfm }b }gl dbhhbpef` lw{ylebf1

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]b cfchuql }gl mufcjeo bd ls|c}ebf '9% pl mlffifl tcyecihl vn}> Vn}9 n( vq3>}> vn}93(vq9>}> vq3>}93( & & & ( vqf>}> vqf93>}93( cfm pl yl{hcol }gll ef }gl yldlyylm ls|c}ebf }b bi}cef1

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]gl mufcjeo bd }gl jbmlh cyl cmmylcihl iu }|muef` c 'f 3%*ls|c}ebf('f 3%*lfmb`lfb| tcyecihl u}lj& ]gl f 3 ls|c}ebf cyl '?%( vq3>}3 vn} cfmvqe>}3 vqe93>}( e 9> & & & > f( pgehl }gl lfmb`lfb| tcyecihl cyl biteb|hu vn} cfm vqe>}(e 3> & & & > f&

9&9 Hboch mufcjeosHboch mufcjeo cyl }yce`g}dbypcym }b ef}ly{yl}( ch}gb|`g ge`g mejlfebf }|yfobj{|}c}ebf bd }ciehe}u obfme}ebf cfm ied|yoc}ebf {bef} c o|jilybjl }cn& Glfol(pl gby}hu cmmyl }gl `lflych {yb{ly}el bd }gl heflcyeqlm u}lj ef }gl teoefe}u bd }gl}lcmu }c}l cfm pl {ybollm }b }gl eftl}e`c}ebf bd hboch }ciehe}u obfme}ebf dby }gyll{cy}eo|hcy ocl1 f 3( f 9 cfm f ?&

@etlf }gl |fes|l }lcmu }c}l {bef}( }gl heflcyeqc}ebf bd }gl u}lj ef }glfle`gibygbbm bd |og {bef} chhbp }b {yllf} e} ef jc}yeoech dbyj c gbpf ef De`|yl 3&

Ef u}lj '=% 'll De`|yl 3%( E e cf emlf}e}u jc}yew bd bymly f( cfm ; e c obh|jftlo}by pe}g f lhljlf}& ]gl {lo|hecy gc{l bd }gl Acobiecf jc}yew bd u}lj '=% 'llDe`|yl 3% chhbp dby c meylo} obj{|}c}ebf bd e} }ycol( ml}lyjefcf} cfm |j bd {yefoe{chjefby bd cfu bymly& ]gl ocho|h| hlcm }b1

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obfme}ebf obfolyfef` meddlylf} hboch }ciehe}u yl|h}& ]g|( pl }|mu }gl jb}}yce`g}dbypcym ocl&

Ocsl 31 f 3& ]gl ej{hl} ocl e }gl bfl ef pgeog bfhu obf|jly }gc} gctl|{mc}lm }gley efdbyjc}ebf l} obfolyfef` }gl ltbh|}ebf bd }gl lobfbju ef }gl {ylteb|{lyebm pehh |l |og efdbyjc}ebf }b ogcf`l obf|j{}ebf mloeebf 'b}gly c`lf}( pgbdbyjlm }gley lw{lo}c}ebf {ylteb|hu }b }*3( pehh a|} e`fbyl {ylmeo}ebf bf b|}{|}

|o}|c}ebf cfm obfemly c obf}cf} jcy`efch {yb{lfe}u }b obf|jl 3*s%& Ef }ge ocl(}gl heflcyeqlm u}lj obf}cef c 9 9 Acobiecf jc}yew1

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c( C( ` cfm m( meddlylf} hboch mufcjeo yl|h} cyl bi}cefcihl& De`|yl 9 `yc{geochhuyl{yllf} }gl mufcjeo {beiehe}el&

Ef De`|yl 9( }gyll ied|yoc}ebf hefl cyl yl{yllf}lm& ]gl {col obyyl{bfmef` }b }glcylc efeml }gl }yecf`hl dbyjlm iu }gll }gyll hefl e }gl ylèbf bd }ciehe}u& \f}cihl

b|}objl cyl db|fm b|}eml }gl ied|yoc}ebf hefl& C bfl yl`cym( bfhu bfl nefm bdied|yoc}ebf e cmjeeihl ef }ge dycjlpbyn( }gl bfl dby pgeog Ml}A 3( }gc} e( cFlejcyn*_conly ied|yoc}ebf& ]gl ef}lyl}ef` {bef} e }gc} iu ef}ybm|oef` c he g}ogcf`l ef c iceo oc{e}ch coo|j|hc}ebf ls|c}ebf( yl`cymef` }gl cjb|f} bdobf|j{}ebf( bfl `lflyc}l c }u{l bd ied|yoc}ebf }gc} ocffb} il db|fm efbfl*mejlfebfch u}lj& C pl pehh bilytl }gyb|`g `hbich mufcjeo cfchue(eftcyecf} ouohl pehh cyel dby oly}cef tch|l bd {cycjl}ly&

[yb{be}ebf ? uf}gleql }gl yl|h} bf hboch mufcjeo&

[?& ]gl oc{e}ch coo|j|hc}ebf ls|c}ebf pe}g obf|j{}ebf hltlh cma|}lm }b hc}{lyebm lw{lo}c}ebf bf o|yylf} lobfbjeo {lydbyjcfol ej{hel }gl dbhhbpef`

hboch mufcjeo1'c% C 3c 3c

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Flejcyn*_conly ied|yoc}ebf boo|y>'i% }gl u}lj e hbochhu |f}cihl dby C & 3c

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De`|yl 9&Hboch mufcjeo ef }gl

jbmlh pe}gb|}b{}ejeqc}ebf 'f 3%

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[=& ]gl jbmlh bd oc{e}ch coo|j|hc}ebf pe}gb|} b{}ejeqc}ebf cfm pe}gobf|j{}ebf mloeebf iclm bf }gl lobfbjeo {lydbyjcfol bd }gl hc} }pb{lyebm e hbochhu ogcyco}lyeqlm iu }gl dbhhbpef` obfme}ebf1'c% C Flejcyn*_conly ied|yoc}ebf lwe} |fmly1

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Dby [ybbd ll }gl C{{lfmew&Ylochhef` }gc}( ef b|y jbmlh cfm dby f 9( Ml}A 939 t

[J 9A( pl ocf

ohcyedu }gl mufcjeo |fmlyhuef` }ge {loeffio ocl iu mycpef` c mec`ycj }gc} ylhc}l}gl |j bd }gl bymly }pb jefby bd A pe}g }gl ml}lyjefcf} bd }gl jc}yew& De`|yl ?yltlch c hefl l`jlf} flcy }b }gl bye`ef pglyl }ciehe}u gbhm( pgehl( cd}ly }glied|yoc}ebf {bef}( ef}ciehe}u y|hl&

De`|yl ?&Hboch mufcjeo ef }gljbmlh pe}gb|}b{}ejeqc}ebf 'f 9%

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12/29

Ocsl ?1 f ?& Pglf obf|j{}ebf mloeebf cyl iclm bf }gl {ylteb| }gyll {lyebmc``yl`c}l lobfbjeo b|}objl( }gl Acobiecf jc}yew bd }gl heflcyeqlm u}lj ef }gl}lcmu }c}l teoefe}u pehh me{hcu c }ycol ls|ch }b 3( c {be}etl |j bd {yefoe{chjefby bd bymly 3( c fl`c}etl |j bd {yefoe{ch jefby bd bymly 9( cfm c {be}etl

ml}lyjefcf}& ]gll e`f hlcm }b }gl efobf}l}cihl bilytc}ebf }gc} }pb bd }glle`lftch|l bd }gl Acobiecf jc}yew cyl fl`c}etl cfm }gc} }gl b}gly }pb cyl {be}etltch|l& ]ge efdbyjc}ebf e te}ch }b ge`ghe g} c }ciehe}u yl|h} obfolyfef` }gl}gyll*{lyebm ocl&

[

'o% Hboch efs}ciehe}u1

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c C9 `9 m

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efol obj{|}c}ebf hlcm }b glctu lw{ylebf }gc} cyl {yb`yletlhu hl efdbyjc}etl&Fltly}glhl( pl gctl db|fm c {c}}lyf1 }ciehe}u gbhm dby oly}cef objiefc}ebf bd{cycjl}ly tch|l> }ge }ciehe}u ocf bfhu il iybnlf pglf }gl {ybm|o} bd }pble`lftch|l e ls|ch }b bfl 'Flejcyn*_conly ied|yoc}ebf%( cfm cd}ly }gl ied|yoc}ebfef}ciehe}u pehh {yltceh 'flw} |ilo}ebf pehh yltlch( }gyb|`g c f|jlyeoch lwcj{hl( }gc}cd}ly }gl ied|yoc}ebf cfm ildbyl ef}ciehe}u l} ef( e} e {beihl }gl lwe}lfol bd cf cylcbd s|ce*{lyebmeo ouohl%&

9&? @hbich mufcjeosMl{lfmef` bf }gl nefm bd eftbhtlm fbfheflcye}el( c ied|yoc}ebf |og c }gl bfl a|}ogcyco}lyeqlm ocf l{cyc}l ylèbf bd ffiwlm {bef} }ciehe}u dybj ylèbf bd ef}ciehe}u bye} ocf {ybm|ol c ylèbf pglyl ouohl bd meddlylf} {lyebmeoe}el ljly`l dbhhbpef` }glied|yoc}ebf cfm ildbyl ef}ciehe}u ilèf }b {yltceh& Ef }gl {yllf} jbmlh( }glFlejcyn*_conly ied|yoc}ebf ètl lddlo}etlhu {hcol }b lfmb`lfb| |o}|c}ebf dbyoly}cef objiefc}ebf bd {cycjl}ly tch|l& ]gl dbhhbpef` `yc{geoch cfchueobfolf}yc}l bf }gl ej{hl} ocl f 3( i|} efol pl cyl fb} heje}lm iu ylhltcf}obj{|}c}ebf {ybihlj ef }gl f|jlyeoch }|mu bd }gl `hbich {yb{ly}el bd }gl u}lj( pllfm }gl lo}ebf pe}g cf lwcj{hl }gc} c|jl f =& Pl pehh bilytl }gc} c cjl nefmbd mufcjeo e yltlchlm dby }gl }pb meo|lm ocl 'ejehcy mufcjeo ocf il db|fm dbycfu b}gly tch|l bd f%&

]cnl }gl dbhhbpef` l} bd ilfogjcyn tch|l( pgeog yl{yllf} ylcbfcihl lobfbjeoobfme}ebf 'ef {cy}eo|hcy( pl obfemly c hbf` y|f `ybp}g yc}l bd = {lyolf}%1s m `Vu

!c ^;&9< ;&;< ;&;= 3 3;Z cfm hl} f 3& Pl lhlo} C c }gl ied|yoc}ebf {cycjl}ly&

Ef De`|yl =( pl me{hcu }gl ied|yoc}ebf mec`ycj> e} ohlcyhu efmeoc}l }gc} }gl u}lj|fmly`bl c ied|yoc}ebf }gc} `lflyc}l c ylèbf bd ouoheoch ilgcteby dby c heje}lmef}lytch bd }gl {cycjl}ly tch|l^3Z&

]gl ouohl cyeef` dybj }gl ied|yoc}ebf {ybol jcu obyyl{bfm le}gly }bs|ce*{lyebmeo ouohl by }b ogcb}eo jb}ebf& ]gl meddlylfol e }gc} s|ce*{lyebmeoe}u mblfb} ej{hu c metly`lfol bd flcyiu byie} by lfe}etl ml{lfmlfol bf efe}ech obfme}ebf(cfm }glyldbyl bfl bd }gl }pb Huc{|fbt lw{bflf} 'ef }ge ocl( pl gctl cf bymly 9

Acobiecf jc}yew cfm( }g|( }pb Huc{|fbt ogcyco}lye}eo lw{bflf} 'HOL% lwe}% ocf}cnl c f|hh tch|l( i|} e} pehh fb} il {be}etl& Pe}g De`|yl }gl a|j{ ef }gl }ycalo}byu bd ib}g HOL a|} e`fch jchhylèbf bd ef}ciehe}u }gc} bfl ocf obfffiyj }b lwe} iu hbbnef` c} }gl ied|yoc}ebfmec`ycj ef De`|yl =&

[ybollmef` pe}g }gl te|ch cfchue( De`|yl 4 yl{yllf} cf c}}yco}ef` l} dby c tch|lbd }gl }logfbhbù {cycjl}ly dby pgeog s|ce*{lyebmeoe}u gbhm( cfm ef De`|yl 0 cogcb}eo c}}yco}by e yltlchlm( dby cfb}gly tch|l bd }gl obfemlylm {cycjl}ly&

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14/29

]gl `yc{geoch cfchue ilobjl obj{hl}l pe}g c icef bd c}}yco}ebf 'De`|yl 7%( }gc} pl{yllf} dby C ;1??( cfm c }ejl lyel bd }gl lfmb`lfb| tcyecihl bd }gl jbmlh 'De`|yl

7%( dby C ;&9 c ej{hl ogcf`l ef }gl obftlf}ebfch

oc{e}ch coo|j|hc}ebf ls|c}ebf( }gc} eftbhtl }cnef` ef}b coob|f} obfemlyc}ebf cib|}}gl i|efl ouohl pglf obf|j{}ebf mloeebf cyl jcml( yl|h} ef lfmb`lfb|i|efl ouohl& E} e( c lw{yllm ef }gl ef}ybm|o}ebf( }gl ilgcteby bd gb|lgbhm cfm}gley obfffimlfol yl`cymef` }gl gby} y|f lobfbjeo olfcyeb }gc} `lflyc}l cfm |}ceflobfbjeo |o}|c}ebf btly }ejl&

De`|yl


15/29

Fb}l( c plhh( }gc} }gl }lcmu }c}l tch|l bd }gl {ly oc{e}c {gueoch oc{e}ch tcyecihl( pglf}gl `ybp}g }ylfm e pe}gmycpf( e( dby }gl obfemlylm l} bd {cycjl}ly(

n 3C C9 ;1;5:;10


16/29

cyycu bd {cycjl}ly e c|jlm( chbf` pe}g t ;1;

f 3%

De`|yl 5&]ejl lyel bd vn} dby }gl

jbmlh pe}gb|}b{}ejeqc}ebf 'C ;19

f 3%

Obf|jlyobfffimlfol

?53


17/29

]ge }cfmcym b{}ejch obf}ybh {ybihlj e |ialo} }b }gl ylb|yol obf}ycef}n}3 u}9 o} 39 m n}( pe}g n; ètlf& ]gl mlyetc}ebf bd b{}ejche}u obfme}ebf e}cfmcym cfm e} ètl {hcol }b }gl dbhhbpef` y|hl bd jb}ebf dby lw{lo}lm obf|j{}ebf|fmly b{}ejche}u1 L}o}3 i 3 C9 m o}& Iloc|l }gl {ybm|o}ebf d|fo}ebf eheflcy( }gl y|hl }gc} mlffifl }gl }ejl {c}g bd obf|j{}ebf yllo} }gl lwe}lfol bd cobf}cf} `ybp}g yc}l bd }ge c``yl`c}l btly }ejl& ]g|( obf}ycyehu }b }gl fbfb{}ejeqc}ebf ocl( fbp pl gctl cf lw{heoe} `ybp}g yc}l `> i 3 C9 m9 3& Fb}l}gc} }ge e }gl `ybp}g yc}l bd lw{lo}lm obf|j{}ebf( i|} e} e chb }gl }lcmu }c}l`ybp}g yc}l bd oc{e}ch cfm b|}{|}( c bfl lcehu bilytl }gyb|`g }gl lwcjefc}ebf bd

}gl hbf` }lyj obfme}ebf |fmlyhuef` }gl ylb|yol obf}ycef}&Glfol( pl jcu mlffifl Vn}> n}: i 3 C9 m

}c c fbf*`ybpef` tcyecihl ef }gl

}lcmu }c}l& Pl chb obfemly }gl dbhhbpef` obf}cf} tch|l1 Vu!>

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cfm Vo > o}: i 3 C9 m }

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Fbp pl ef}ybm|ol obf|jly obfffimlfol ef}b }gl dycjlpbyn& Ch}gb|`g c`lf} mb fb}{hcf }gley obf|j{}ebf }ycalo}byel ef } ; gctef` ef obfemlyc}ebf ltlf}|chmltec}ebf bd b|}{|} dybj e} }ylfm( ef ylche}u |og mltec}ebf boo|y cfm c`lf} pehhylco} }b }glj& ]g|( }gl oc{e}ch coo|j|hc}ebf obf}ycef} c`lf} pehh dcol pehh fb}lwco}hu obyyl{bfm }b }gl ylb|yol obf}ycef} c|jlm ef bymly }b jcwejeql lw{lo}lm|}ehe}u iloc|l obf|j{}ebf pehh il cma|}lm( ylhc}etlhu }b b{}ejch hltlh( ètlf

lw{lo}lm b|}{|} `c{&Ef}lcm bd c|jef` cf lddlo}etl eftl}jlf} hltlh e} u}9 o}( pl pehh c|jl

e} u} 39 s ` 9 3

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18/29

ef}b obf|j{}ebf( c }gl yl|h} bd }gl b{}eje}eo lfteybfjlf} `lflyc}lm btly }gllw{lo}c}ebf bd c {be}etl b|}{|} `c{& Bf }gl b{{be}l oeyo|j}cfol( }gl lw{lo}c}ebfefmeoc}ef` c o|yylf} fl`c}etl b|}{|} `c{ pehh yl}yeo} obf|j{}ebf }b c tch|l }gc} ehbply }gcf }gl b{}ejch bfl '`( 3%( cfm }glyldbyl c hcy`ly gcyl bd b|}{|} ilobjl

ctcehcihl dby eftl}jlf}& [cycjl}ly s& ; }ycfhc}l }gl lw}lf} ef pgeog mltec}ebf bd}gl lddlo}etl efobjl ylhc}etlhu }b e} {b}lf}ech hltlh ogcf`l }gl lw{lo}lm me}yei|}ebf bdylb|yol il}pllf obf|j{}ebf cfm eftl}jlf}&

]cnef` ef}b coob|f} }gl ml}ylfmlm tcyecihl cfm }gl meo|lm y|hl dby eftl}jlf}(}gl oc{e}ch coo|j|hc}ebf ls|c}ebf jcu il {yllf}lm c dbhhbp1

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19/29

]gl u}lj |ialo} }b cfchue e fbp obf}e}|}lm iu '0%( vq3>}3 vn} cfm vqe>}3 vqe93>}(

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20/29

Pe}g }gl {ylteb| efdbyjc}ebf( pl je`g} |fmly}cnl }gl cfchue bd }ciehe}u dbycfu tch|l bd f& [yb{be}ebf 0 {yllf} c `lflyeo yl|h} ejehcy }b }gl bfl ef{yb{be}ebf 9&

[0& ]gl heflcyeqlm u}lj( bd }gl `ybp}g jbmlh pe}g lw{lo}lm |}ehe}ujcwejeqc}ebf cfm obf|j{}ebf mloeebf iclm bf {c} lw{lo}c}ebf btly}bmcu lobfbjeo {lydbyjcfol( e hbochhu }cihl ed chh }gl ybb} bd }glogcyco}lye}eo {bhufbjech1

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?5


21/29

Dybj {yb{be}ebf 7( bfl ocf mycp ltlych obybhhcyel1

'3% Iloc|l o( |e c flolcyu obfme}ebf dby cf lobfbjeochhu jlcfef`d|h }lcmu}c}l( cfm }ciehe}u yls|eyl o( c:3 c |( ed }gl u}lj e }cihl }glf }gl}lcmu }c}l oc{e}ch tch|l e flolcyehu lobfbjeochhu jlcfef`d|h 'e&l& {be}etl%&

'9% C Flujcyn*_conly ied|yoc}ebf boo|y ed pglf ]yA 3 }glf Ml}A - 3& ]g|(c Flejcyn*_conly ied|yoc}ebf yls|eyl |- i 3 C9 m:c&

'?% Ileml }ciehe}u '}cihl fbml by }cihl dbo|%( c emlf}effilm }gyb|`g {yb{be}ebf7( b}gly s|che}c}etl hboch yl|h} cyl {beihl1& Ef}ciehe}u '|f}cihl dbo|%1 o( |9 3 C9 m:c>& _cmmhl*{c}g }ciehe}u1 o& c:3 c |&

C f|jlyeoch lwcj{hl glh{ ef `l}}ef` bjl d|y}gly efe`g} bf }gl hboch mufcjeo> plobfemly }gl cjl tch|l bd }gl {cycjl}ly }gc} cyl objjbf }b }gl fbf b{}ejeqc}ebf cfm}b }gl b{}ejeqc}ebf dycjlpbyn( e&l& m ;1;


22/29

|fmly}cfm }gc} jc}gljc}eochhu e} e {beihl }b ffifm }gl {bef} bd }ycfe}ebf il}pllf}cihl cfm |f}cihl b|}objl 'e&l& }gl ied|yoc}ebf {bef}> ef }ge ocl( }gl ml}lyjefcf} bd}gl Acobiecf jc}yew e ls|ch }b qlyb pglf C 9;1???%& De`|yl 3? ehh|}yc}l hbochmufcjeo |fmly }gl meo|lm lwcj{hl&

Fb} chh {be}etl tch|l bd C cyl jlcfef`d|h ef b|y cfchue& Ylochh }gc} C e cfcy`|jlf} ef }gl lw{ylebf bd }gl }lcmu }c}l `ybp}g yc}l( cfm }g| pl j|}`|cycf}ll( }gyb|`g }ge {cycjl}ly( c ylcbfcihl hbf` y|f `ybp}g yc}l& Ylochhef` }gc}`> i 3 C9 m9 3( pl pehh pbyn( bf }gl `hbich cfchue }gc} dbhhbp( pe}g;19 / C / ;1?> }ge chhbp dby c ylcbfcihl `ybp}g yc}l 9 3&3 {lyolf} / `/ 0&Ml}A 31;=;> 317?;cfm }gc} C ;1? ej{hel ]yA>Ml}A 31;?0> 315;0&

?&9 @hbich mufcjeos]b meo| `hbich mufcjeo( pl c|jl }gl l} bd {cycjl}ly tch|l {yllf}lm cibtl&]gl cfchue e iceochhu }gl cjl bfl gc |fmly}cnlf dby }gl fbf b{}ejeqc}ebf ocl>dby }ge ylcbf( pl yl}yeo} }gl `yc{geoch {yllf}c}ebf }b }pb ffi`|yl }gc} d|yfeg c|ooefo} ehh|}yc}ebf bd }gl {yllfol bd fbfheflcy mufcjeo& Pl obfemly }gl ocl f 3&

De`|yl 3= yl{yllf} cf c}}yco}ef` l} dby c tch|l bd C dby pgeog c*{lyebmeoe}u e{yllf} 'ef }ge ocl( pl ogbbl c tch|l bdC }gc} obyyl{bfm }b c = {lyolf} }lcmu }c}l`ybp}g yc}l%> iloc|l ouohl objl dybj }gl cjl }u{l bd ied|yoc}ebf c ef }glfbf*b{}ejeqc}ebf ocl( bfl ll bjl ejehcye}el pe}g }gl c}}yco}by ef De`|yl 4& ]glejehcye}el ocf il bilytlm chb }gyb|`g }gl }ejl lyel bd }gl lfmb`lfb| tcyecihl vn}>}glyl e fb e`feffiocf} meddlylfol il}pllf }gl nefm bd lfmb`lfb| i|efl ouohl efDe`|yl 5 cfm }gl |o}|c}ebf bfl bilytl ef De`|yl 3


23/29

{bef} pl gb|hm hbbn c} }ejl lyel ctlyc`l& B|y `yc{geo `etl bjl oh|l cfmllf}echhu {bef} }b }gl efldffioelfou }gc} }gl obf|jly ilgcteby jcu {ybm|ol&

Ed bfl obfemly }gl }ejl lyel `lflyc}lm ef b|y lwcj{hl( dby }gl c|jlm{cycjl}ly tch|l( dby f 3 cfm C ;19< 'jbmlh pe}gb|} b{}ejeqc}ebf% by C ;19


24/29

bd cf efldffioelf} yl{bfl bd efmetem|ch }b }gl lobfbjeo obfme}ebf }glu {lyoletl eflcog jbjlf}& ]gl {yb{blm jbmlh `lflyc}l efldffioelf} lfmb`lfb| i|efl ouohlbtly }gl ilfogjcyn `ybp}g jbmlh( pgeog mb fb} }cnl ef obfemlyc}ebf cfu ciehe}u bdobf|jly }b yl{bfm }b }gl lobfbjeo ilgcteby }glu pe}fl&

]gll yl|h} bf oc{e}ch cyl {beihl }b il }ycfhc}lm meylo}hu bf}b obf|j{}ebfiloc|l( ef }gl hbf` y|f( ef cf CN `ybp}g jbmlh c }gl bfl obfemlylm( obf|j{}ebfpehh il {yb{by}ebfch }b }gl }bon bd oc{e}ch( o C9 m `:3 `

n& ]glyldbyl( pl

ocf obfoh|ml }gc} pglf obf|jly ylco} }b lw{lo}lm i|efl ouohl( pglf jcnefògbeol obfolyfef` }gl chhboc}ebf bd }gley me{bcihl efobjl( }glu ilobjl pbyl bddylhc}etlhu }b c {|yl }ylfm b{}ejeqc}ebf olfcyeb&

=& Defch yljcynsEf }ge {c{ly( pl gctl cnlm c ej{hl s|l}ebf1 pgc} ed c`lf} ylco} }b hc} {lyebmlw{lo}c}ebf bf lobfbjeo {lydbyjcfol pglf jcnef` obf|j{}ebf mloeebf }bmcu2Cd}ly chh( lobfbje} |fcfejb|hu obfemly }gc} lobfbjeo {lydbyjcfol e meylo}huc}}coglm }b obf|jly obfffimlfol& Ed gb|lgbhm cyl b{}eje}eo cib|} }gl ciehe}u bd }gllobfbju }b `ybp cibtl fbyjch }cfmcym( }glu pehh il jbyl pehhef` }b obf|jl( cfm}glyldbyl }gl jcyèfch {yb{lfe}u }b obf|jl b|} bd efobjl yel& Ed obf|jly cyl{leje}eo( }gl b{{be}l lddlo} gb|hm il bilytlm& ]g|( pl obf}yc} }gl }cfmcym`ybp}g jbmlh |fmly pgeog c`lf} ilheltl }gc} b|}{|} obftly`l ef }gl hbf` }lyj }b e}{b}lf}ech hltlh cfm co} coobymef` }b |og ilheld( pe}g c dycjlpbyn pglyl c`lf} ylco} }b}gley {c} ef}ly{yl}c}ebf bd gbp }gl o|yylf} }c}l bd }gl lobfbju pb|hm il&

Lw{lo}c}ebf cib|} i|efl ouohl cyl jbmlhlm iu obfemlyef` }gc} }glyl e }eonuefdbyjc}ebf |{mc}ef` bd ilheld& Gb|lgbhm |{mc}l }gley efdbyjc}ebf ef me}efo} {c}{lyebm cfm }glyldbyl lw{lo}c}ebf dbyjlm ef tcyeb| {c} jbjlf} pehh il ylhltcf} dbyc``yl`c}l lw{lo}c}ebf bf }bmcu lobfbjeo {lydbyjcfol& ]b }ge c|j{}ebf( pl gctl

cmmlm }gl emlc }gc} c obf}cf} `cef hlcyfef` {ybol ogcyco}lyeql }gl dbyjc}ebf bdlw{lo}c}ebf( jlcfef` }gc} {c} lobfbjeo {lydbyjcfol pehh il ylhltcf} }b ml}lyjefl}bmcu obf|jly obfffimlfol cfm( obfls|lf}hu( obf|jly ogbeol&

]gl {yb{blm l}|{ hlcm }b lfmb`lfb| i|efl ouohl }gc} cyl }ye``lylm iugb|lgbhm ilgcteby> ed c`lf} mem fb} yl{bfm }b lw{lo}lm ouohl( }gll pb|hm a|}dcml b|}& ]cnef` }ge cy`|jlf} lyeb|hu jlcf }gc} ob|f}ly ouoheoch lobfbjeo {bheoujcu il cmls|c}l }b c}}lf|c}l }gl {lye}lfol bd lobfbjeo |o}|c}ebf> ed c`lf} mb fb}{lyoletl }gc} }gl lobfbju ml{cy} dybj }gl {b}lf}ech b|}{|} hltlh( }glf }glu pehh cma|}ctef` yc}l biluef` bfhu }b yls|ee}l bd b{}ejche}u |fmly c dyeo}ebfhl olfcyeb&Cfb}gly jcaby obfoh|ebf e }gc} ouohl cyl efldffioelf}( ef }gl lfl }gc} }gl lobfbjupehh( bf ctlyc`l( il pbyl bdd pe}g }gcf pe}gb|} }glj 'b|y f|jlyeoch lwcj{hl {bef} ef}ge meylo}ebf%& Ouohl {lfcheql hbf`*}lyj plhdcyl( cfm }glyldbyl {yetc}l c`lf} gb|hm

il lm|oc}lm fb} }b ètl c }ybf` yl{bfl }b gby} y|f |o}|c}ebf pe}g yl`cym }b }gleymloeebf bf }gl chhboc}ebf bd efobjl il}pllf obf|j{}ebf cfm ctef`&

Fb}l

3& Chh }gl ffi`|yl obfolyfef` `hbich mufcjeo {yllf}lm ef }ge {c{ly cyl mycpf |ef` EMJObd}pcyl 'ef}lyco}etl Mufcjeoch Jbmlh Ocho|hc}by%& ]ge e c dyll bd}pcyl {yb`ycj ctcehcihlc}1 ppp&m&|fe|m&e}"fbfheflcy( cfm ob{uye`g} bd Jcyae Hefl cfm Chdylmb Jlmeb&

Obf|jlyobfffimlfol

?55


25/29

Yldlylfols

Ccmc( ]& cfm _ljjhly( P& '355


26/29

_ogje}}*@ybgl( _& '9;;;%( Lfmb`lfb| i|efl ouohl cfm }gl mufcjeo bd b|}{|}( gb|y( cfmobf|j{}ebf( Cjlyeocf Lobfbjeo Yltelp( Tbh& 5; Fb&


27/29


28/29

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Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles

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Transcript of Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles