Consulting Services for JP Ceste Federacije Bosne i...

Swedish National Road Consulting AB (SweRoad) JP Ceste Federacije Bosne i Hercegovine

Consulting Services for

JP Ceste Federacije Bosne i Hercegovine - Climate Resilience in the Bosnian Road Network

EBRD Contract number C35733/898/7485

Final Report

2018-03-20

Final Report - Climate Resilience in the Bosnian Road Network

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Table of Contents Acknowledgement .............................................................................................................................. 3 List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................... 4 1. Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 5 2. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 6

2.1. Background ............................................................................................................... 6

2.2. The project ................................................................................................................ 7 3. Execution of the assignment ........................................................................................................ 8 4. Task 1 - Institutional framework for CCA of roads in FBiH .......................................................... 10

4.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 10

4.2. Stakeholders and partners ......................................................................................... 10 4.2.1. Hydrometeorological institute (HydroMet) ................................................................ 12 4.2.2. River Basin Agencies.............................................................................................. 14 4.2.3. Federal Civil Protection Administration .................................................................... 17

4.3. Stakeholder network ................................................................................................. 18

4.4. Web page for adaptation to climate change.................................................................. 19

4.5. Establishing a system for saving data on weather related events on the road network ....... 19

4.6. Summary of output of Task 1 (Table 2)........................................................................ 20 5. Task 2 - Mapping risks and vulnerabilities ................................................................................. 21

5.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 21

5.2. General vulnerability as described by JP Ceste .............................................................. 21

5.3. Assessment of vulnerability in case studies .................................................................. 22

5.4. Introduction and approach ........................................................................................ 22 5.3.1. Choice of pilot stretches ........................................................................................ 23 5.3.2. Risk assessment of pilot stretches ........................................................................... 24

5.5. Summary of output of Task 2 (Table 6)........................................................................ 27 6. Task 3 – A strategic approach for adaptation to climate change.................................................. 28

6.1. Action plan for adaptation to climate change ............................................................... 28

6.2. Revision of rules and guidelines for design .................................................................. 30

6.3. Summary of output of Task 3 (Table 9)........................................................................ 31 7. Task 4 - Support for the implementation of climate resilience measures .................................... 32

7.1. Demonstration projects ............................................................................................. 32 7.1.1. Demo project 1: Adaptation measures ..................................................................... 34 7.1.2. Demo project 2: Alternative routes .......................................................................... 36 7.1.3. Demo project 3: Cost Benefit Analysis ..................................................................... 36 7.1.4. Results ................................................................................................................ 38 7.1.5. Conclusions for the demo projects .......................................................................... 41

7.2. Summary of output of Task 4 (Table 23) ...................................................................... 41 8. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 42 9. Appendices ............................................................................................................................... 43


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Acknowledgement

The resilience of the road network in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) will rely upon the capacity to systematically integrate climate resilience into future investments. Using funds from the Central European Initiative, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) contracted the Swedish Roads agency (SweRoad) to support the Public Company Roads of FBiH (JP Ceste) to introduce international best practice on identifying and managing climate risks to the country’s road network.

SweRoad would like to thank the government agencies that have participated in this work such as Ministry of Communications and Transport, JP Ceste, Autoceste, HydroMet, Sava River Basin Agency, Adriatic Sea Watershed Agency and Federal Civil Protection Administration for their cooperation and readiness to provide the information required.

Implemented by SweRoad with the individual experts:

Fredrik Gustafsson, Project Manager Eva Liljegren, Climate Change Adapt. Expert (on leave from Swedish Transport Admin.) Gordana Petković, Climate Change Adapt. Expert (on leave from Norwegian Public Roads Admin.) Rolf Lövkvist, Roads Engineer Björn Möller, Training & Institutional Expert


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List of Abbreviations

Autoceste BiH

JP Autoceste Federacije Bosne i Hercegovine, PC Motorways of the Federation of BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH, Republika Srpska and Brčko-district)

CCA Climate Change Adaptation

CEDR Conference of European Directors of Road www.cedr.eu

Climate-ADAPT

The European Climate Adaptation Platform http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/

EBRD FBiH

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina

HydroMet

Federalni hidrometeorološki zavod (FHMZ) Federal Hydrometeorological Institute

JP Ceste JP Ceste Federacije Bosne i Hercegovine, PC Roads of the Federation of BiH

PIARC World Road Association www.piarc.org

ROADAPT “Roads for today, adapted for tomorrow”, CEDR Transnational Road Research Program Call 2012: Road owners adapting to climate change. Project website.

SweRoad Swedish National Road Consulting AB

ToR Terms of Reference

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

http://www.cedr.eu/

http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/

http://www.piarc.org/

http://www.cedr.eu/strategic-plan-tasks/research/cedr-call-2012/call-2012-climate-change-road-owners-adapting-climate-change/roadapt-project-results/


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1. Summary

Climate related risks in Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) were emphasised by the 2014 floods, which led to more than 20 deaths, 90,000 people displaced and billions of dollars in damages. These floods, which affected bridges, roads, homes, electricity distribution, dams and flood protection infrastructure, highlight the need to factor climate risks into decisions regarding investments in short- and long-term infrastructure assets.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is providing loan finance for the repair and modernisation of roads in the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina. The borrower is the Public Company Roads of the Federation of BiH (JP Ceste). In 2015, EBRD carried out a study1 of road climate change adaptation in FBiH. The report pointed out, among other things, the need of a better understanding of the relationship between weather and road network, the need for collaboration with other stakeholders and the need to develop an approach to deal with climate change adaptation.

In addition to the loan, EBRD is providing technical assistance support to JP Ceste. The aim is to support JP Ceste in establishing an institutional framework, assessing climate risks, developing an adaptation strategy and by offering call-down support.

The Swedish National Road Consulting AB (SweRoad) carried out the support project during 2017.

Summary of the project outputs

• An institutional framework for CCA of roads. This includes a basis for collaboration with crucial partners and suppliers of data and design basis for roads: HydroMet, Sava River Basin Agency, Adriatic Sea Watershed Agency and Federal Civil Protection Administration.

• A set-up for uniform registering of weather–related events on the road network. This is proposed instead of a system for collation of weather data collected by the contractor.

• A general method for assessment of vulnerabilities on the road network of FBIH, based on existing maps, hydrological information, precipitation patterns and local knowledge of the project area.

• An assessment of specific vulnerabilities carried out as a pilot project for three road stretches chosen by JP Ceste, based upon the method described above.

• An outline of a strategic approach for CCA, based on national strategies in FBIH and international established frameworks for adaptation strategies and action plans.

• The project’s suggestions for amendments to examples of guidelines used at JP Ceste. • Examples of implementation of adaptation measures, including choice of alternative

routes and economical aspects of the choices taken, carried out as pilot projects.

1 Road climate change adaptation for the federation of Bosnia and Herzegovia. Final report. 15th July 2015. EBRD.


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2. Introduction

2.1. Background

When World Economic Forum presented their Global Risk Report 2016, extreme weather events and failure of climate change mitigation and adaption were recognized as some of the very top risks, as well as in likelihood as in impact. Ten years earlier none of these two risks where among the top. However over just the last few years the importance of these risks has risen.2

As the UN has pointed out in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report3 and in the Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction4, it is crucial for countries to work with climate change adaptation and to increase resilience. The infrastructure sector is often highlighted as a very important sector to work on. Being the physical backbone, a society without a functional infrastructure will face severe problems.

Climate related risks in Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) were emphasised by the 2014 floods, which led to more than 20 deaths, 90,000 people displaced and billions of dollars in damages. These floods, which affected bridges, roads, homes, electricity distribution, dams and flood protection infrastructure, highlight the need to factor climate risks into decisions regarding investments in short- and long-term infrastructure assets.5

After the 2014-year flood, FBiH has been offered help from several different donor-funded programs. Some of them, like different flood recovery programs, started directly in 2014. The other programs, as for example the Landslide Disaster Risk Management and the Technology transfer for climate resilient flood management in Vrbas River Basin, started later. Some programs, like the World Bank’s airplane scans of terrain and waters are still to start.

Already before the flooding BiH was aware of the problems with extreme weather and therefor a National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction was launched in 2013. The same year a Climate Change Adaptation and Low Emission Development Strategy was adopted. However, BiH faces significant institutional, financial and human resource constraints to address climate change issues. Working with climate change adaptation and building a resilient society is complex. It requires for example access to different types of knowledge, such as climate projections and their impacts on natural hazards. It also requires a profound understanding of the situation and a wish to collaborate to reach common goals. In countries or in sectors with limited funds, the need to prioritize and to focus on the most useful work is a must.

2 https://www.weforum.org/ 3 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/index.shtml 4 http://www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/sendai-framework 5https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2016%20CRM%20Fact%20Sheet%20-%20Bosnia%20%28003%29.pdf

https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2016%20CRM%20Fact%20Sheet%20-%20Bosnia%20%28003%29.pdf

https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2016%20CRM%20Fact%20Sheet%20-%20Bosnia%20%28003%29.pdf


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2.2. The project

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is providing loan finance for the repair and modernisation of roads in the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina. The borrower will be the Public Company Roads of the Federation of BiH (JP Ceste) with the funds used for repair of damages caused by heavy floods in May 2014. The impacts of climate change have potentially serious implications for roads, which are critically important for the economic development of EBRD’s region of operations. In order to increase climate resilience in the EBRD’s countries of operations, the Bank is systematically integrating climate risk assessments and adaptation measures in its investment operations.

In 2015, EBRD carried out a study6 of road climate change adaptation in FBiH. The report pointed out, among other things, the need of a better understanding of the relationship between weather and road network, the need for collaboration with other stakeholders and the need to develop an approach to deal with climate change adaptation.

The investment in FBiH consists of a loan of €65 Million to rehabilitate 34 sections across the country including bridges, tunnels and new bypasses. In addition to the investment project, EBRD sought technical assistance support via a tendering project. The objectives in the project were to:

1. Support the Roads Agency in establishing an institutional framework for assessing, managing and communicating climate risks to the road network

2. Support the Roads Agency in assessing climate risks to the road network and in mapping specific vulnerabilities

3. Support the Roads Agency in developing an adaptation strategy to climate change 4. Call-down support to the Roads Agency for the implementation of climate resilience

measures under the associated investment project

The Swedish National Road Consulting AB (SweRoad) was appointed the support project and started working in March 2017.

6 Road climate change adaptation for the federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Final report. 15th July 2015. EBRD.


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3. Execution of the assignment

In the following, an overview of the major actions of the project team is given.

• Kick-off meeting. The consultancy services commenced on 13.03.2017. An initial kick-off meeting was held at the main office of JP Ceste in Sarajevo, with representatives from the Ministry of Communications and Transport, JP Ceste, Autoceste, and the international consultant, SweRoad. The consultant presented its experience of CCA project implementation and presented the main points of the project.

• Work meeting with JP Ceste and Autoceste. The aim of the meeting was to obtain a better knowledge of the awareness of the road sector in Federation BiH of the consequences of climate change, and the efforts already being put in adaptation. The findings from this meeting were incorporated in the presentations given by the consultant at the Kick-off workshop.

• Meeting with HydroMet’s meteorology expert who is also working on climate change scenarios. Although JP Ceste has a well-established communication with HydroMet, climate projections are not a part of the usual collaboration. The findings from this meeting were incorporated in the presentations at the Kick-off workshop.

• A kick-off workshop was held on 22.03.2017, where representatives of the Ministry of Communications and Transport, JP Ceste, Autoceste, HydroMet, Sava River Basin Agency, Adriatic Sea Watershed Agency, Ministry of Security of BIH, Federal Civil Protection Administration, EBRD, the World Bank and the Red Cross in FBiH attended. On the agenda was an introduction to the project, examples from the work on CCA in other countries, and a presentation of the consultant’s approach to the project tasks.

• An Inception report was sent to EBRD, the Ministry of Communication and Transport and JP Ceste, 4th of April 2017. Included in the report was the terms of references with comments from the project team. The report was updated in May, after comments from the EBRD.

• Interviews with partner agencies, in Sarajevo. The consultant carried out three meetings, 24.4. – 26.4. 2017, with the HydroMet, Sava River Basin and Adriatic Sea Watershed Agencies and the Federal Civil Protection Administration. The aim of the meetings was to state and discuss needs and possibilities, and outline possible terms of collaboration.

• Desk top study risk assessment method, Oslo, May 2017. In the Inception report, the consultant proposed to apply the Quickscan method7 for assessing risks on chosen road stretches. However, after the first months of the project, the consultant realised that a different method would work better in FBiH. The consultant therefor decided to proceed with a modified method, based on the method used by the Norwegian Road Administration.

• The Interim report was sent to EBRD, the Ministry of Communication and Transport and JP Ceste, 19th of June 2017. The report was updated in September, after comments from the EBRD.

7 ROADAPT. Roads for today, adapted for tomorrow. CEDR Transnational Road Research Program Call 2012: Road owners adapting to climate change


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• A two-day field trip to the area around Tuzla took place in beginning of July. The Consultant and project managers from two maintenance contracts studied four roads prone to the weather related challenges JP Ceste face.

• The Consultant met with JP Ceste and HydroMet 13.09.2017. HydroMet presented their work on climate projects on the river basins relevant for the chosen test stretches for risk assessment.

• A meeting with Sava took place the 15th of September with the aim of assessing the main maps and knowledge base provided by the Agency, to be used for the risk assessment of the test stretches.

• Meeting with Hydro 20.9.2017 – with the aim of defining the development of the Climate Atlas and collaboration between the EBRD-project and HydroMet. HydroMet’s «Climate Atlas» gives information for the reference period 1961-1990. In addition, HydroMet will provide data and statistics for recent years, and make a description of climate profiles for each climate zone.

• A risk assessment workshop was carried out on the 19th of September where representatives of JP Ceste, Autoceste, HydroMet, Sava River Basin Agency, Federal Civil Protection Administration and two contractors attended. On the agenda was an introduction to the method and testing of the method on three chosen road stretches.

• The final workshop was held the 30th of November. At the workshop the result of the project was presented. The workshop was attended by the Ministry of Communications and Transport, JP Ceste, HydroMet, Federal Civil Protection Administration, the World Bank and EBRD.

• A Final report was sent to EBRD, the Ministry of Communication and Transport and JP Ceste, 7th of March 2018.


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4. Task 1 - Institutional framework for CCA of roads in FBiH

4.1. Introduction

Adaptation to climate change is interdisciplinary work. It requires collaboration. There are many examples of interdependencies between sectors and management levels. The transport sector needs good and reliable projections of climate change. This requires the knowledge of experts in meteorology and hydrology. Their expertise is needed not only to obtain the projections, but also to interpret them, to understand the impact of changes, and take into consideration the inevitable uncertainty in the projections. Geology and geotechnical expertise is needed to describe the impact climate change will have on landslide risk.

The society as a whole has to collaborate. Accelerated building and urbanisation increases the need to address challenges for surface water management. Good forest management is more important in a wetter climate because of the impact forests have on land stability.

That is why the first task of this project has been to support the Road Agency in establishing an institutional framework for assessing, managing and communicating climate risks on the road network.

Final workshop held in Sarajevo November 30, with donor, beneficiary, stakeholders and consultant.

4.2. Stakeholders and partners

Table 1 gives an overview of the institutions that were identified by the consultant as the most relevant for an institutional framework for CCA of roads. The project team assumes that the institutions on the list all have interest in taking part in this network.

The four most important stakeholder/partners for adaptation to climate change are: HydroMet, Sava River Basin Agency, Adriatic Sea Watershed Agency and Federal Civil Protection Administration. The data and assistance these agencies provide is subject to change because of climate impact. Therefore, more work has been dedicated to arrangements between JP Ceste and these four agencies.


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Table 1: Collaborating stakeholders and partners

Collaborating stakeholder

Role Provide maps/data:

Federal Hydro-meteorological Institute www.fhmzbih.gov.ba

Supplier of meteorological and hydrological data Gives advice on development of met-stations. Provides meteorological and hydrological data for specific projects.

www.fop.fhmzbih.gov.ba www.fhmzbih.gov.ba

Information of climate projections, maps of expected changes in climate parameters etc.

Climate Atlas – being published

Input to the project Climate profiles per river basin for test road sections; temperature, precipitation, run-off (see 6.3)

Sava River Basin Agency www.voda.ba Adriatic Sea Watershed Agency www.jadran.ba

Operative plan for defence against floods: flood maps, showing area inundated under 20, 100 and 500-year floods; list of cities prone to flooding and critical water levels for emergency action

Recommendations for specific road projects The project emphasizes the need for updated statistics and a safety margin to include climate change

Planned work: risk maps under development Important future input to JP Ceste

Civilian Protection Administration of the Federation http://fucz.gov.ba

Administrates emergencies. It is necessary to establish natural hazards and climate change as a threat/source of risk. It is also necessary to establish the importance of the road network maintaining its function in emergencies.

Ministries Role Provider maps/data Ministry of communication and transportation

Main contact for this project. In the project scope: a motivator for coordinating priorities between ministries, and instance of approval of changes in design rules.

In addition to the partners that the projects focused on, a number of agencies and research institutions can give valuable input to adaptation work. Federal Institute for Geology provides geological maps. Federal Admin for Geodetic and Property Affairs provides elevation data. Geotechnical Society of BiH and Hydrotechnical Institute of the Civil Engineering Faculty in Sarajevo are important knowledge suppliers. Since spatial planning is so important for adaptation to climate change, it is important to follow the work and legislation coming from the Ministry of Spatial Planning. Several local contacts have mentioned the need for better legislation concerning forest management. Therefore, the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Management and Forestry of FBiH is also an important contact for future work.

http://www.fhmzbih.gov.ba/

http://www.fop.fhmzbih.gov.ba/


http://www.voda.ba/

http://www.jadran.ba/

http://fucz.gov.ba/

http://www.fbihvlada.gov.ba/english/ministarstva/promet_komunikacije.php



http://www.fzzg.gov.ba/

http://www.fgu.com.ba/

http://www.geotehnika.ba/

http://www.heis.com.ba/

http://www.fbihvlada.gov.ba/english/ministarstva/prostorno_uredjenje.php

http://fmpvs.gov.ba/index-en

http://fmpvs.gov.ba/index-en


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4.2.1. Hydrometeorological institute (HydroMet)

HydroMet is an important data and knowledge supplier, already focused on working on climate change. The institute has the possibility to provide tailored information regarding temperature and precipitation changes, which is important for planning, design, operation and risk assessment of roads.

• Operation JP Ceste needs information of current weather and weather forecasts. HydroMet issues regular reports, up to one-hour frequency, as for the climate stations in Sarajevo, Mostar and Bjelašnica. Data from automatic climate and precipitation stations are always available.

JP Ceste also use monthly statistics provided by HydroMet, for their regular reports on operation and maintenance. These data come in addition to data supplied by contractors, as a part of their operation logbook.

Operation contracts are based on current climate. However, they need to take into account the observed trends in the development of important climate variables.

• Planning, design and renewal JP Ceste needs information on the precipitation levels, estimates of water runoff. It is important to find a way of incorporating climate change into the communicated climate data. Depending on the designed service life of the roads or road structures, medium-term (2050) and long-term (2100) projections are needed.

• Assessing risk on the existing road network When assessing risk on the existing roads, JP Ceste needs an indication of how current risks and impacts of weather and climate will develop in the future.

HydroMet provides on a regular basis meteorological and hydrological information through their website www.fhmzbih.gov.ba. All data are freely available. In addition, a website dealing with the Federal Operative plan for flood defence provides information on meteorological and hydrological data: www.fop.fhmzbih.gov.ba.

HydroMet works on climate change, and is aware of its importance. BiH issued its Initial UN National communication in 2012, 2nd UN national communication in 2013. The 3rd National communication u has been approved by the Council of Ministers in May 2017. Projections of climate change have been developed for two scenarios: A1B and A2. HydroMet is in the process of publishing its Climate Atlas – a compilation of mapped climate data for the reference period 1961-1990, and from all available climate stations in the Federation Bosnia & Hercegovina. In addition, the results of projections of temperature and precipitation in each climate region are presented, together with an overview of the climate-related risks that come as a consequence of change in temperature and precipitation. The consultant considered Climate Atlas to be so valuable for JPs Ceste’s work on adaptation to climate change, that the EBRD project invested 5000 € to help carry out the remaining recension work. Additional 1250 € was invested in the development of an interactive map of climate change. Figure 1 shows an example of information one can obtain for a climate station, in this case Sarajevo. Similar information is available for 12 other climate stations.


http://www.fop.fhmzbih.gov.ba/

http://www.ba.undp.org/content/bosnia_and_herzegovina/en/home/library/environment_energy/the-initial-national-communication--inc-.html

http://www.ba.undp.org/content/bosnia_and_herzegovina/en/home/library/environment_energy/the-initial-national-communication--inc-.html

http://www.ba.undp.org/content/bosnia_and_herzegovina/en/home/library/environment_energy/sncbih-2013.html

http://www.ba.undp.org/content/dam/bosnia_and_herzegovina/docs/News/E&E%20Sector/TNC/TNC%20Report%20ENG.pdf?download

http://www.ba.undp.org/content/dam/bosnia_and_herzegovina/docs/News/E&E%20Sector/TNC/TNC%20Report%20ENG.pdf?download


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Figure 1: Example of HydroMet’s climate information for climate station “Sarajevo”.

SARAJEVO

METEOROLOGICAL RISKS VERY HIGH RISK OF

• HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODS HIGH RISK OF

• STORM WINDS • LOW VISIBILITY BECAUSE OF FOG • HEAVY SNOW AND FROST DURING WINTER MONTHS • STORMS • EARTHQUAKES

MODERATE RISK OF • EXTREME (HIGH AND LOW) AIR TEMPERATURES • FLOODS (from rain of long duration with or without snow melting) • HAIL • DROUGHT • LANDSLIDES AND ROCKFALL • OTHER MET. RISKS

REFERENCE PERIOD 1961-1990

CLIMATE SCENARIO A2

2011-2040 2041-2070 TEMPERATURE

(°C) PRECIPIT.

(MM) TEMPERATURE

(°C) PRECIPIT.

(%) TEMPERATURE

(°C) PREICIPIT.

(%) SPRING 9,5 225,5 +1,6 -5 +3,6 -10 SUMMER 18,1 241,9 +2,6 -20 +5,0 -40 AUTUMN 10,3 241,1 +1,8 -5 +3,6 -20 WINTER 0,3 223,4 +2,2 -5 +4,0 -20 ANNUAL AV. 9,6 931,9 +1,8 -10 +4,0 -40

Generally, the projections show that annual precipitation is not expected to change significantly. However, the seasonal precipitation is. In addition, the increase in precipitation intensity will be a challenge. HydroMet is currently not working on projections of precipitation intensity, but rather on establishing more reliable data by better monitoring and statistics.

Another type of “climate atlas”8 has been developed in the UNDP system and is available on-line. It provides information about climate change, however, based on a small number of stations.

Proposed terms of collaboration 1. Provide easy and practical access to data from HydroMet:

The project proposed an on-line arrangement of the most important sources of information for road engineers’ use. The staff of JP Ceste decided to establish this site as a part of the site titled “Activities”. The on-line arrangement provides:

• links to the two official websites of HydroMet • a link to the Climate Atlas with the main instructions for use • a link to the interactive map of expected climate change projections and associated

risks • information of projected changes in temperature and precipitation, for each

meteorological station.

8 http://www.unfccc.ba/klimatski_atlas/index.html

http://www.unfccc.ba/klimatski_atlas/index.html


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2. JP Ceste develops a station network compatible with HydroMet’s stations.

3. JP Ceste adapts design rules, guidelines, tenders and contracts in a way that the newest available data are used and/or a safety margin introduced in cases when one does not have updated climate data. These adaptations should be based on recommendations and advice from HydroMet, especially advice concerning how to take into account inevitable uncertainty.

4. The project has formulated an initiative to the Ministry of communication and transportation to do was is necessary to achieve that HydroMet be recognised as an important institution for all sectors, and providing finances for their work. Coordination between ministries is desired. (Appendix 1.4)

4.2.2. River Basin Agencies

Sava River Basin and Adriatic Sea Watershed Agencies are providers of flood data and statistics, which are important when planning climate resilient new infrastructure. The agencies also issue approvals for construction.

• Planning, design and renewal

JP Ceste needs flood maps, water flow and flood level measurement, statistics, and risk maps (under development).

JP Ceste also needs advice on taking into consideration the impact of flood events that are not covered by the current statistics. In addition, they need an estimate of a safety margin (that allows for climate change).

• Assessing risk on the existing road network

Assistance in assessing the probability of flooding in certain stretches of roads, where data or maps are lacking.

The river basin agencies are dedicated to providing a good basis in data – measurements and statistics. Here are the main products and information sources:

• The Water Management Strategy of the Federation BIH (2010-2020) has defined water management policy in the territory of the Federation. The strategy should provide the basis for policy of water management of the Federation, and determine the course of action in terms of water protection, protection from adverse effects of water and sustainable water use.

• Provision on types and contents of plans for protection from adverse effect of waters (Official Bulletin no 26/2009)

• Preliminary assessment of flood risk, 2013, is divided into four books: Book 1 & 2 containing provisions and flood maps for watershed areas category I, Books 3 & 4 – provisions and flood maps for watershed areas category II.

• “Federal Operative Plan for Flood Defence” (FOP) was published Dec 2015, in the official Bulletin of the Federation of BiH, with an extensive technical annex published on the web.

http://zamisli2030.ba/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/strategija-za-upravljanje-vodama.pdf

http://www.fbihvlada.gov.ba/bosanski/zakoni/2009/uredbe/12.htm

http://www.voda.ba/preliminarna-procjena-rizika-od-poplava-za-podrucje-federacije-bih

http://www.voda.ba/federalni-operativni-plan-odbrane-od-poplava


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The plan states responsibilities and actions in the time before a forecasted flood, during a flood and in the recovery period after the flood. The FOP is made for areas classified as I category watershed. It treats separately areas with and without control structures/objects. The information provided for each area is: a map of flooding, a list of settlements and parts of settlements that may be flooded, and water levels requiring action in the form of continuous information of responsible agencies and persons.

• A management plan is being prepared to be completed in 2021.

• Risk maps are being developed – they will be important for planning and maintenance of the road network, although the final decisions will always be based on finances.

• World Bank is investing in a project including scans of terrain and waters. Results are expected in the autumn 2017, and will be followed by hydrological analyses.

The river basin agencies acknowledge climate change and are of the opinion that the observed changes in floods and water levels years can be explained by climate change. However, the agencies do not work with projections of flood levels for the future climate. They are highly focused on, and base their work on, documented data and calculated statistical values. It is, nevertheless, a challenge to keep this data a jour, due to the lack of capacity. For instance, the currently available statistics does not include the major flood of 2014.

Although there are very few examples of miscommunication, the project team is of the opinion that climate change might bring forward the importance to communicate need and possibilities in a better way than it is done today. Here are some examples of unwanted conditions:

• A road structure may be insufficiently designed in the first place. For example, a low flood return period can be used as the basis for design. The responsibility to recognise this as a problem, or the possibility to do something about it, is not defined.

• JP Ceste requires a flood level design value, however not sufficiently stating that the impact of climate change has to be included.

• The agencies deliver the statistically calculated values, from existing hydrological studies, without sufficiently describing the need to do additional work, to obtain more reliable/updated information. The additional work (and investment) would include the impact of climate change. This may be observed values not yet included in the statistics, or anticipated changes in the future.

• Officially – the impact of climate change is considered as a part of the general uncertainty and is compensated for by adding pragmatically chosen safety margins. For example, an additional 80 cm is added for bridge levels. However, this safety “compensation” can easily end up as nobody’s responsibility. Sometimes it does not take care of all necessary aspects.


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Proposed terms of collaboration

1. Provide easy and practical access to data from River basin agencies

The project proposed an on-line arrangement of the most important sources of information for road engineers’ use. See 5.4. This on-line arrangement provides:

• links to the “Operative Plan for Flood Defence”, with explanations; • information on ongoing work - risk assessment and risk maps under development.

2. Effort is made in clarifying the communication of need and possibilities

The typical project scenario comprises the following steps: The watershed agencies give their consent to project plans, which presumably contain the requirement of 100-year flood level as design basis. The agencies communicate the 100y flood level to JP Ceste, who then proceed with design according to the given 100y flood level. The final design is again sent to the Agency for approval. If the agencies consider the project insufficient regarding waterways, they can refuse it.

Several situations in the “grey zone” need to be described and regulated by stating responsibilities. It should be made clear whether additional work is necessary, and which part will do the work.

3. JP Ceste adapts design rules, guidelines, tenders and contracts in a way that the newest available flood data are required, together with a description of uncertainty. These adaptations should be based on recommendations and advice from the River Basin Agencies. One should at least include clauses such as: “climate change has to be taken into consideration” or “the structure has to be designed to manage the climate changes during its lifespan”.

Safety margins, to compensate for the lack of updated data, need to be formulated in each particular case, with the consent of the river basin agencies.

Other options to be discussed and evaluated:

• JP Ceste decide to invest in a higher design flood level than required in a particular project.

• JP Ceste makes general changes in their design rules, with the Ministry’s approval. For example, introduce a higher safety margin in design rules, in order to take into account the lacking modifications due to climate change, and the inevitable uncertainties.

4. The project has formulated an initiative to the Ministry of communication and transportation, so that knowledge meets needs. Legislation has been put forward by the river basin agencies as the best (if not only) way to enable a change. If required by law, the agencies will inevitably conduct more extensive assessments and measurements (Appendix 1.4).


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4.2.3. Federal Civil Protection Administration

This agency is an important collaborating partner for JP Ceste when it comes to managing emergencies on the road network. The Civil Protection Administration is the executive body in managing emergencies, and has a secretary function. The main responsibility is with the Federal Headquarters of Civil Protection. These two independent bodies are directly responsible to the Government.

These are the main regulations/legislation:

• Law “Protection and Rescue” being drafted currently. Last time amended in 2010. Based on this law, the vulnerability assessment (assessment of threats) is done.

• There is also a “Methodology for assessment of threats to the society”. • “The assessment of threats” is a “live” document; it should be updated and new risks

introduced continuously (prescribed by the law). However, updating is not timely done and there are delays. Latest “Assessment of threats” was done in 2014.

• “Development Programme” is a strategic document, and the result of the Assessment of threats. It provides the basis for the “Plan” that follows.

• “Plan for protection and rescue from natural disasters” consists of tasks prioritised in the “Development programme”. CPA is currently drafting a new plan. It will also be a subject of continuous updating.

There are several issues of common interest:

• Alternative routes should be treated with more attention. The lack of alternative routes is reportedly a problem on the majority of the roads. Some existing alternative routes are inadequate for heavy traffic. In addition, alternative routes are not pre-decided, they are chosen in each particular emergency.

• The importance of the road network in emergencies, for providing safe evacuation of citizens, needs to be addressed in regulatory documents. Protection of citizens is closely connected to local infrastructure (sometimes low-level roads).

• It is of common interest to point out all possible threats to safety, one of them reportedly being the lack of legislation concerning forestry in the Federation. There is no landslide database to prove it, but uncontrolled forest cutting is most probably one of the main causes of landslides. It is therefore important to collaborate with the Ministry of Forestry, Water management and Agriculture FBiH. The Ministry is responsible for both forestry and the work of the river basin agencies (Sava and Adriatic).

Proposed terms of collaboration 1. Ensure that natural hazards (including weather conditions and climate change) be

recognised as one of the most important sources of risk. It is in the interest of the whole society that the road network is robust enough to preserve its role for the citizens, also in the future climate.


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2. Ensure that the importance of a functional road network in emergencies is recognised. It is in the interest of the society that roads maintain their role in emergencies, and provide safe evacuation. Collaboration on alternative routes is important here.

3. The project has formulated an initiative to the Ministry of Communications and Transportation, for implementing amendments to the regulatory documents of the Civil Protections Administration and/or rules of practice for JP Ceste (Appendix 1.4).

4.3. Stakeholder network

Ideally, all the stakeholder agencies and companies should cooperate on a regular basis, and contribute to the overall adaptation of the society to climate change. An example of this need are the situations when the lack of regulations in one field of work or sector (e.g. forestry, building and planning) can give systematic risks for another sector (e.g. the road network). Although problems can be solved within each particular project, long-term collaboration would be a more efficient way of work.

At the beginning of the project, the consultant was of the opinion that it would be correct to aim at forming a larger stakeholder network, where all relevant partners were included. However, after the experience from the first months of the project, we have chosen to focus on the four main agencies described above and propose terms of collaboration between them and JP Ceste. We will nevertheless illustrate two stakeholder networks, which may be models for future cooperation also in FBiH.

Example 1 of national stakeholder network: The Swedish Governmental Agency Network Sweden has established a governmental agency network for climate change adaptation. The purpose of the network is to facilitate the national planning and implementation of climate change adaptation measures, and in that way increase the society’s resilience against climate change. The governmental agencies maintain their original responsibilities and have the responsibility for adaptation to climate change within their respective areas of expertise. Issues of common interest are managed through joined and coordinated action. The governmental agencies collaborate with Sweden's municipalities and county councils on a web portal for adaptation to climate change. The portal contains information about the effects of climate change, risk management, how an adaptation plan can be developed and examples of how climate change adaptation can be integrated into the daily work. Eighteen governmental agencies are involved in the network and the portal.9

Example 2 of national stakeholder network: The Norwegian Nature Hazards Forum In Norway, collaboration between governmental agencies affected by or working with management of natural hazards has been formalized in a Nature Hazard Forum. One of the

9 Geological Survey of Sweden, National Food Agency, National Veterinary Institute, Public Health Agency of Sweden, Sami Parliament of Sweden, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (leader), Swedish Transport Administration, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Swedish Mapping, Cadastral and Land Registration Authority, Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, Swedish Board of Agriculture, Swedish County Administrative Boards (in Swedish), Swedish Energy Agency, Swedish Forest Agency, Swedish Geotechnical Institute, Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning, Swedish National Heritage Board.


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main aims of this forum is to develop and follow a national strategy for management of flood and landslide risk. The national strategy is meant to achieve better common use of resources, better quality of services, greater awareness and understanding across areas of responsibility, and facilitate access to information. The Forum is also responsible for Norwegian follow-up of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction10. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has a coordinating responsibility for establishing the national strategy and is responsible for operating the Nature Hazards Forum.11 An annual conference/seminar, "National Forum for flood and landslide prevention" is an important meeting place and venue for exchanging knowledge and experience.

4.4. Web page for adaptation to climate change

The consultant initiated the development of a simple web-based overview of the most important issues, sources of information and collaboration channels, with links and explanations. The target group are members of the staff of JP Ceste working with planning, design, contracts, i.e. all tasks that need to take into consideration climate change. Ceste decided this website would be a part of their website titled “Activitites”.

The benefits of the webpage are:

- It gives guidance to the staff of JP Ceste about information that is necessary to collect and issues that need to be taken care of;

- It contributes to the general awareness of the problems brought by climate change; - It is a user-friendly way of communicating the results of this project.

The main content of the webpage are links to the most important sources of information (as maps and data), a short version of the main points of this project (short texts, figures etc). The set-up does not require frequent maintenance. However, regular checks of the links by an appointed editor are recommended.

4.5. Establishing a system for saving data on weather related events on the road network

In the ToR, it was written that the consultant should ensure the development of a database for collation and analysis of data within the Roads Company. The consultant presumed that this meant weather data, collected by contractors for road operation. However, according to our contacts at JP Ceste, there seems to be no need for this type of database. The information from the contractor is currently delivered daily in form of a copy of a handwritten operation log and the main reason for collecting this information is of legal nature – to assist in

10 http://www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/sendai-framework 11 In addition to NVE, the Forum consists of representatives from the Directorate for Civil Protection and Preparedness (DSB), the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, Bane NOR, (state-owned company responsible for the national railway infrastructure), the municipality's organization (KS), the Meteorological Institute, the Environment Directorate (MD), the Agriculture Directorate, MET, Kartverket (National Mapping Authority) and the County Councils' work committee.

http://www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/sendai-framework


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assessment of road accidents. Instead of this database, the consultant has provided a uniform registering of weather-related events on the road network.

In order to build a resilient road network, it is important to increase knowledge about the assets. A risk assessment method will provide an understanding of potential risks and vulnerabilities. However, this information needs to be continuously complemented with data from relevant events - for example landslides and flooding. Such information is important for learning, sharing experiences and developing proposals for measures to prevent similar events from happening again. The proposed arrangement consists of basic in-data template that can be used to gather the most crucial information about such events (Appendix 2.1). The project has also provided a simple Excel file that can be used as a database from which the coordinates of the events can be used to create GIS maps. The scheme contains information about the cause and extent of damage, distinguishing between personal damage, damage of properties, consequences for the environment, and financial damage, such as travel time or socio-economic costs of disruptions (Appendix 2.2).

4.6. Summary of output of Task 1 (Table 2)

Output Description Status Next steps Terms of collaboration /Memorandum of understanding

3 draft terms of collaboration have been delivered to JP Ceste by the consultants (App 1). These describe how the consultants propose JP Ceste should work with the counterparty. They do not have a legal basis.

Drafts have been provided, but none of these have been signed between the institutions.

JP Ceste to refine the terms of collaboration and sign them with relevant counterparties. This is Action 4 in the Action plan (Appendix 4).

HydroMet Climate Atlas

A description of needs delivered to the HydroMet and a financial solution for the recension of the Climate Atlas. Information and a link to the Atlas is published on JP Ceste’s “Climate website”.

HydroMet is doing final changes to the Atlas, and is, according to the Memorandum of Understanding, expected to inform JP Ceste of all changes.

Dissemination: Publishing on JP Ceste’s Climate website, and agreeing on a way to keep the posts updated.

Website/ web page facilitating collaboration

A set-up for a simple web page containing a short overview of the impacts of climate change on the road network, and links to the main sources of data and information.

The first version is developed and checked with the agencies providing information.

JP Ceste to appoint a person to keep the posts updated, in collaboration with HydroMet and the River Basin Agencies. Action 2 in the Action plan (App 4).

System for saving data on weather events

In-data template and Excel files for recording weather events and main information about their consequences.

Delivered to JP Ceste in Excel format ready to use. Not officially implemented.

Formal integration into JP Ceste daily operations.


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5. Task 2 - Mapping risks and vulnerabilities

5.1. Introduction

The objective of Task 2 is to provide an understanding of the state of the network. The aim is to assess and ensure resilience of the current infrastructure and assets and allow for better operational decision-making, in relation to personnel, infrastructure or assets that are affected adversely by extreme weather events.

One aspect of the “state of the road network in the face of CC” is the general exposure and vulnerability of the road network. The EBRD report from 2015 gives an excellent overview of the challenges FBiH faces concerning climate change in general and in the road sector in particular. The findings in the report can be summarised as follows: flooding and landslides pose most observed risks, the precipitation pattern is changing and the ability to forecast extreme events is limited.

Another aspect of the “state of the road network in the face of CC” is the knowledge of the specific vulnerabilities of particular roads - how to assess them and how to interpret and use the results of the assessment.

5.2. General vulnerability as described by JP Ceste

Due to the great diversity in climate, the different parts of FBiH face different types of threats to the road network. During winter months, intense snowfall, cold spells, avalanches and widely fluctuating temperatures can cause severe problems for the road owners. In spring, melting snow, high water levels, rainfall and frost heave can damage the infrastructure by floods, landslides and cracks in the pavement. During summer, long periods of heat and drought damages the pavement, but can also result in major damages when the rain finally comes. In autumn, intense rainfall can cause mudflows and floods.

Winter operation is one of the main challenges, especially on mountain roads. High daily temperature variations make winter operation difficult. Snowfall may be so heavy that it damages road structures, it occurs often in February. Examples of extreme snowfall are the winters of 2000, 2007 and 2011. In addition, avalanche and drifting snow are a problem. Fluctuating temperatures around zero can make the roads icy and cause accidents.

The geology in FBiH is varied. Temperature variations increase the risk of landslides. Long periods of low temperatures can lead to frost heave when the winter is over. Flooding occurs frequently. Although flooding may not be a problem in itself, the flooding often yields landslides in flooded areas and thus affects the roads. Another problem is that uncontrolled deforestation increases instability, and can affect the water flow in rivers and streams. Many streams are not regulated enough and they often change their paths.

Another large problem is the uncontrolled construction and urbanisation along the roads, due to poor local infrastructure. The areas around the roads are paved and infiltration surfaces decreased. In such conditions, the existing drainage may be insufficient.


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5.3. Assessment of vulnerability in case studies

5.3.1. Introduction and approach

The assessment of specific vulnerabilities on the road network has been carried out as pilot projects. The aim of this work was to establish a methodology for practical mapping of vulnerable points with respect to natural hazards and climate change. By carrying out examples on prioritised road sections, by including JP Ceste’s own personnel and by documenting the work, the consultant has laid a basis for future similar work to be applied anywhere else on the road network.

In the Inception report, the project described the Quickscan method as the assumed most appropriate method to use in this project. The Quickscan method was developed in the CEDR12 research project ROADAPT - Roads for today, adapted for tomorrow13. The expected output of the Quickscan was an overview of main challenges on each part of the road stretch. Quickscan could be executed on site, as a desktop study, or a combination of both.

However, after the first months of work with JP Ceste, and attaining more knowledge the company’s way of work and needs, some doubts arose regarding the applicability of the Quickscan method in its complete original scope. Therefore, a desktop study was performed in order to check how the method would be applied, having in mind the possible road stretches in FBiH, and the applicability of the outcome of the work. Based on this desktop exercise, the project chose to adjust this method in following directions:

• simplification of the scoring system; • choice of shorter stretches compensated by more detailed location of vulnerabilities; • more detailed descriptions of particular vulnerabilities.

This yielded a method close to the Norwegian method for risk assessment of roads, focusing on climate related events14. The project team is of the opinion that these modifications were a correct choice, and that they gave more practically applicable results.

12 Conference of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) 13 ROADAPT. Roads for today, adapted for tomorrow. CEDR Transnational Road Research Program Call 2012: Road owners adapting to climate change 14https://www.vegvesen.no/_attachment/1552791/binary/1136237?fast_title=7.+S%C3%A5rbarhet+p%C3%A5+vegnettet+-+VegROS+som+klimatilpasningsverkt%C3%B8y.pdf (under development)

https://www.vegvesen.no/_attachment/1552791/binary/1136237?fast_title=7.+S%C3%A5rbarhet+p%C3%A5+vegnettet+-+VegROS+som+klimatilpasningsverkt%C3%B8y.pdf

https://www.vegvesen.no/_attachment/1552791/binary/1136237?fast_title=7.+S%C3%A5rbarhet+p%C3%A5+vegnettet+-+VegROS+som+klimatilpasningsverkt%C3%B8y.pdf


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5.3.2. Choice of pilot stretches

The team in JP Ceste was asked to choose road stretches they consider important and representative for the weather related challenges they face. JP Ceste proposed five sections.

Figure 2: Road stretches chosen by JP Ceste

The following table shows the road sections, the climate related challenges and the relevant maps of flooding, found on Sava River Basin Agency’s web site (“Operative plan for flood defence”).

Table 3: Information on the five chosen road stretches

Road nr Road section Main risks/challenges Existing flood maps (links)

M 1.8 Pelagićevo - Srebrenik Floods, instability of the cuts and side areas

Tinja

M 4 Donja Orahovica - Šićki Brod

Floods and torrential streams Spreča

M 17 Karuše – Ozimica Floods, landslides, instability, unpredictable torrential streams

Bosna

M 16 Crna Rijeka – Jajce Jug Torrential streams (rivers of Vrbas watershed) and instability of side areas

Vrbas – no relevant flood map available

M 14 Srbljani – Bosanska Krupa

Landslides in mined areas, settlements in road embankments, lack of drainage capacity

Una – no relevant flood map available

http://www.voda.ba/udoc/FOP/pbzvo/P-R-Tinje/Mapa-plavljenja.pdf

http://www.voda.ba/udoc/FOP/pbzvo/P-R-Bosne/P-Spreca/Mapa-plavljenja.pdf

http://www.voda.ba/udoc/FOP/pbzvo/P-R-Bosne/P-Maglaja/Mapa-plavljenja.pdf


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Further prioritising was done based on available data.

• The HydroMet was able to supply projections of temperature, precipitation and water flow in the river basins belonging to the river Sava. This corresponded to sections M1.8, M4 and M17. For this HydroMet utilised output from the WATCAP project (Water and Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin), as a basis for describing climate projections in the river basins corresponding to the test road stretches.

• For the same areas, the project received detailed flood lines from the Sava River Basin Agency, for 20-, 100- and 500-year floods. The flood risk maps, being currently developed by the Agency, did not cover these areas.

• The Civil Protection Administration did not have any preferences concerning the choice of road sections.

• The three chosen sections covered areas with and without redundancy, including both flood and landslide risk, thus providing a basis for demo projects.

The flood maps delivered by Sava Agency were overlaid with maps of the road stretches. This was done by JP Ceste’s own personnel. Overlaying the 100-year flood line and the road map gave us the possibility to see which parts of the road are mostly exposed to flood risk. Overlaying the 500-year flood line and the road map showed us the probable trend in flood risk development.

JP Ceste had all the road sections taped on video, so that the examination could be done virtually, by watching it on a screen.

5.3.3. Risk assessment of pilot stretches

The workshop was carried out 21.9.2017, with the participation of contractors and JP Ceste’s representatives for the chosen sections, representatives from the Sava River Basin Agency, and Civil Protection Administration. Preliminary meetings were held with HydroMet and Sava Agency, in order to check the data and maps to be used for the risk assessment.

The method for risk assessment applied in this work is described in Appendix 3.1. The assessment was carried out by “driving” along each of the stretches, stopping at profiles and road structures that the contractor pointed out as challenging, and describing and discussing the problems. For each point, the main challenges – weather related events - that could lead to road closure were identified. The following factors were scored, from 1 to 3:

• probability of the event, • road closure: extent and duration, • adaptive capacity: redundancy, the agency’s readiness to handle the risk in question • the value/importance of the road; share of freight transport, area affected by taking

the road out of traffic.

On the basis of the individual scores, a final risk was calculated, following the algorithm in the risk assessment method.

For the workshop in JP Ceste, the value/importance of the road was set at the highest score (3), for all test sections. The test stretches were chosen because they were considered of highest importance, and the aim of the risk assessment was not to compare the stretches.


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Setting the same score for road value simplified the work. After the risk assessment was performed, scored and tabled, the personnel in JP Ceste and the contractors carried out a final control. Some final adjustments were done. Table 4 summarises the steps of the risk assessment.

Table 4: Summary of the steps of the risk assessment performed

Step Participants Content of work Outcome Desktop studies

JP Ceste 12.9.2017 JP Ceste & HydroMet 13.9.2017 Sava River Basin Agency 15.9.2017

Collecting available meteorological and hydrological data, climate projections and flood maps relevant for the chosen road stretches, and assessing their adequacy. JP Ceste provided: • Road data – detailed road

map for documentation (GIS) • Traffic data • Information of black spots

Providing the basis for risk assessment.

Workshop 19.9.2017 JP Ceste: responsible person for the area, professionals corresponding to the requirements to the team composition in the method description. Contractor – responsible person for the particular road stretch. A local representative of the Sava River Basin Agency A representative of the Federal Civil Protection Administration.

(Virtual) drive along the stretch Risk identification, analysis, evaluation. Note all known risks in the road map. Estimate the risk levels.

A map of the road stretch, flood lines for 100- and 500-year flood, all vulnerable assets and road profiles marked and challenges described in words and risk scores.

Desktop JP Ceste 21.9.2017 Analysis of the results, clarification of special challenges, discussion on implications for JP Ceste’s further work.

Report Working plan Input to the Action Plan for Adaptation to CC

Desktop JP Ceste and contractors November 2017

Final check of the outcome of the assessment and risk description.

Report/results quality checked.

Table 5 summarises the main results of the risk assessment, for one of the three chosen sections, M1.8 Pelagićevo-Srebrenik. For each point, there is a description of challenges and the final risk score, from 1 – 3, where 3 indicates top risk. “Current risk” is based on the estimated probability the event occurs with today, whereas “Future risk” corresponds to the probability in the future, under projected climate conditions. All risk numbers higher than 2,5 are highlighted. They present the most vulnerable points, which should be prioritised.


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Table 5: Results from risk assessment on road M 1.8 Pelagićevo - Srebrenik

Coordinates Challenge Current risk

Future risk

1 15+781 Tunnel Ormanica prone to flooding. Remedial measures are limited. Usually one has to wait until the level of the river Tinja is lowered. The regional road serves as alternative route.

2,0 2,3

2 17+887 Flooding, erosion of the embankment and washing out. The road is normally not closed. Under heavy rain, traffic can stop up to 24 hrs.

2,0 2,3

3 19+180 Flooding due to dysfunctional drainage. There is a problem of illegal construction along the road. Still high-water causes damage of the embankment and road structure, which also represents a threat for traffic safety.

2,4 2,4

4 19+578 Narrow riverbed. Slower water flow causes flooding and damage of embankment.

2,2 2,5

5 20+195 Culvert closed due to illegal construction. New drainage structures necessary.

2,3 2,6

6 20+872 Under-dimensioned culvert, often clogged. Inadequate drainage.

2,1 2,4

7 21+182 Black spot. Torrential stream. A culvert exists, but it is often clogged, and out of function due to illegal construction. The water floods over the road.

2,4 2,4

8 21+182 Connected to point nr 7. The culvert under the lateral road is closed. Problems with erosion and still-standing water.

2,3 2,6

9 22+065 Torrential creek causes flooding and damage of pillars of the bridge. Potential road closure due to bridge damage.

2,2 2,5

10 24+950 Torrential creek, causes clogging of the plate culvert. Flooding, settlement of the road. Risk in future climate.

2,1 2,4

11 M1.8 004 2+616

The tunnel Drenik is flooded, water carries debris and rock. Narrow corridor between the road and railway. Flooding causes traffic disruption.

2,5 2,8

The method for risk assessment applied in this work, the complete scores and results are available in Appendix 3.1 – 3.4. The main vulnerability maps are shown in Appendix 3.5.


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Output Description Status Next steps Method for risk assessment

A procedure for simple risk assessment of roads for climate related risks.

The main points of the method are described (App 3.1). Modification can be done by JP Ceste.

JP Ceste to apply the method to other stretches and produce maps of vulnerability. This is also outlined as Action 6 in the Action Plan (Appendix 4).

Maps of vulnerability for the chosen road stretches

GIS maps with information about the vulnerable points and type of vulnerability (Appendix 3.5)

Maps developed by the staff of JP Ceste, who have all the layer information.

JP Ceste to develop similar maps for other stretches. Action 6 in the Action Plan (Appendix 4).

Results of risk assessment carried out for three prioritized road stretches

A table of scores with descriptions of their meaning (Appendix 3.2 – 3.4). It can be used for establishing a priority of actions and/or for further refinement of the method.

Applicable Excel files with algorithms delivered to JP Ceste.

JP Ceste to implement the results – decide on possible adaptation measures and priorities. Discuss needs for modification of the method.


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6. Task 3 – A strategic approach for adaptation to climate change

6.1. Action plan for adaptation to climate change

The third task in this project was to support the Road Agency in developing an adaptation strategy to climate change. Having a strategic approach is fundamental to climate change adaptation work. A strategy can help in anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate actions to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause. Many countries in Europe have adopted national strategies and action plans. However due to the varying severity and nature of climate impacts between countries in Europe, most adaptation initiatives will have to be developed for each specific country and each specific sector. The consultant started this work in March by interviewing staff at JP Ceste and Autoceste to map the possibilities and needs. The template from the European Conference of Directors of Roads (CEDR) report Acting on Climate Change15 was used in order to determine today´s situation, the desired situation and the possibilities for achieving the desired situation. However, it soon became obvious that it was not possible to develop a strategy for JP Ceste, since strategies in FBiH are adopted on a national level and cover entire sectors. In 2013, FBiH adopted a climate change adaptation and low-emission development strategy16 but that strategy does not cover the transport sector. There is a national strategy for transport from 201617, which includes roads, but does not include resiliency or need for climate change adaptation. However, based upon these two national strategies15,16 for FBiH, an action plan suitable for JP Ceste has been developed (Appendix 4). The Action Plan supports implementation of the high-level objectives of the National Transport Strategy and aligns with the Climate Change Adaptation and Low Emission Development Strategy (CCA-LEDS). The action plan, with ten action points, has been structured according to the four interlinked priority areas identified in the CCA-LEDS strategy. Table 7 presents the actions of the Action Plan.

15 http://www.cedr.eu/wpfb-file/cedr2016-5_acting-on-climate-change-pdf/ 16 Climate Change Adaptation and Low Emission Development Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina (2013). 17 Framework Transport Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina (2016).


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Table 7: Actions for JP Ceste, from the Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation

Action Deliverable(s) Time frame Action area 1 Knowledge generation, evidence and dissemination 1 Raise awareness about the impact of the

climate, climate change adaptation and resilience in all parts of JP Ceste.

Communication plan

2017-ongoing

2 Establish and maintain a practical portal for gathering information on weather, climate and climate projections.

Web page 2017- ongoing

Action area 2 Effective institutions and regulatory frameworks 3 Have a clear allocation of responsibility and

mandate for climate change adaptation work. Decision on how to structure CCA-work in JP Ceste

2018

4 Establish collaboration with the most important stakeholders.

Collaboration agreements

2018

5 Propose amendments of the most important guidelines for design/maintenance so that climate change aspects are included.

Revised prioritised guidelines

2018 - 2019

Action area 3 Effective adaptation approaches 6 Assess vulnerable assets and road stretches on

the existing road network. Provide maps of vulnerability.

Risk assessment method developed and scanning carried out

2017-2019

7 Adapt supervision and safety inspections to the impact of the climate.

Updated documents 2018

8 Establish a system for saving data on road network weather related events.

Basic database & in-data template

2017- ongoing

9 Identify alternative routes for magistral roads. Map of alternative routes 2018

Action area 4 Adequate funding for adaptation 10 Estimate the costs of and the financing

possibilities for carrying out the prioritized measures.

Overview report 2018


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6.2. Revision of rules and guidelines for design

The revision of design rules was originally not a part of the project task. However, the project group considers it one of the most important issues for JP Ceste to work on in the future, and decided to address this topic briefly in Task 3. JP Ceste publishes guidelines covering planning, investigation, design, construction, maintenance and supervision. In order to make sure that all future renewal and construction will give more robust structures, it is necessary to adjust the road design and construction guidelines in light of perceived threats of temperature and precipitation increases. The EBRD report from 2015 provides an overview of the guidelines for design and how they should be reviewed. However, it is also important to update guidelines concerning management of roads, especially documents concerning road maintenance. Maintenance work can, especially when paired with risk assessment, prevent or limit the consequences of weather related events. When revising documents, whether for design or maintenance, one of the main points is to introduce the requirement to base all decisions on fresh data, updated statistics, and documented trends. The longer the predicted life span of the project, the more important it is to use data that include the predicted climate changes. A good source of that type of information is the Climate Atlas, produced by HydroMet and explained more in detail in task 1 in this report.

Examples of guidelines used by JP Ceste.


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Table 8 shows some examples of guidelines used at JP Ceste and the project’s suggestions for amendments. Table 8: Examples of revision of documents

JP Ceste document Paragraph Suggested change Guidelines for road design, construction, maintenance and supervision, volume III: Routine maintenance.

3.2.1 Routine periodic, and extraordinary inspections

The text should be updated so that it is clear that inspections are also done in order to reduce/prevent natural hazard events. The text should be updated with a requirement to carry out special inspections ahead of forecasted adverse weather events. These inspections could for example result in removing trees that are likely to fall in a storm, or to clear culverts and other waterways.

Guidelines for road design, construction, maintenance and supervision Volume I:Designing section 2: Designing bridges design guidelines (dg 1.2.1) Part 1: general guidelines for designing of road Bridges.

4.7 Hydrological/hydro-technical (water economy) bases 4.8 Meteorological-climatic bases

The text should be updated so that the impact of climate change on waterways has to be taken into consideration in all decisions concerning the bridge.

Guidelines for road design, construction, maintenance and supervision Volume I:Designing Section 2: Designing bridges Design guidelines (DG 1.2.5) Part 5: Drainage and piping of bridges

1. Design of drainage and piping system of road bridges 4.1 General

The text needs to include the requirement that the input parameters for the hydraulic calculations need to be updated data and statistics, provided by the HydroMet and River Basin Agencies.


Output Description Status Next steps Action plan An action plan for JP Ceste has been

produced. It is based upon existing national strategies in FBiH. The action plan consists of 10 actions.

The action plan has been presented and discussed with JP Ceste.

The directors of JP Ceste need to agree upon the action plan and decide that the actions should be carried out.

Examples of revisions of guidelines

Examples of how guidelines can be changed have been presented in the final report.

Three examples are listed in the final report. They have not been presented to JP Ceste.

JP Ceste can use the examples when they revise their guidelines.


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7. Task 4 - Support for the implementation of climate resilience measures

Task 4 deals with implementation of adaptation measures. The consultant was required to support JP Ceste to integrate climate resilience in the work covered by the loan provided by EBRD. The project focused on complementing the previous EBRD study (2015), which identified the types of adaptation measures that should be implemented, with a quantification of the economic costs and benefits of a specific intervention. The stretch of road for this ‘demonstration project’ was chosen by the consultants and beneficiaries based on the results of the risk assessment in Task 2. Illustrating the costs and benefits of adaptation measures will presumably help the management of JP Ceste decide to implement such measures. The outputs from this exercise are shown below.

7.1. Demonstration projects

Road damages caused by extreme rainfalls, high temperatures and droughts are expected to be more frequent due to projected climate changes. Such damages lead sometimes to high costs for road repair and traffic delays. To avoid such costs, adaptation measures can be implemented, to make identified risk-prone road sections more resilient to climate changes. According to the ToR of this project, the consultant should improve the evidence available to support economic cost-benefit analysis to help support the business case for climate change adaptation interventions. For that purpose, the consultant has utilised data from the existing traffic models to quantify economic benefits of climate change adaptation interventions.

This work has been carried out as three different demo projects. The result from demo project 1 and 2 has been used as input to demo project 3.

Demo project 1: Adaptation measure In Demo Project 1, climate change adaptation measures were identified.

Demo project 2: Alternative route In Demo Project 2, an alternative route to the main road was identified.

Demo project 3: Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) In Demo Project 3, the cost-effectiveness of the proposed adaptation measures was analysed. The result was presented as a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) for the implementation of the adaptation measures.


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Selection of Road Section The demo projects was selected as one of the problems identified in a risk assessment workshop on one of the roads in the table below.

Table 11: Road sections for risk assessment

Road number Road section Main risks/challenges M 1.8 Pelagićevo - Srebrenik Floods, instability of the cuts and side areas M 4 Donja Orahovica - Šićki Brod Floods and torrential streams. M 17 Karuše – Ozimica Floods, landslides, instability, unpredictable

torrential streams

Figure 3: Selected road section

Based on the workshop 09.21.2017 Road M 1.8 Pelagićevo - Srebrenik was chosen as a suitable road stretch since it has alternative routes. The road stretch is a part of the Modernization program and will include several rehabilitation projects.

Selection of Location On the selected road section M 1.8 Pelagićevo – Srebrenik risk assessment was carried out for eleven locations. The suitable location for the demo projects should have alternative route to be used for all traffic during the closure of the main road. An alternative route has been identified between Ormanica and Srebrenik (see below). On the main road covered by this alternative route, there are 10 identified locations with possible future problems due to climate change. A suitable location for the demo projects should meet the following criteria:

1. It should be possible to get enough information about the problem as well as about possible consequences and measures.

2. The consequences should be a complete closure of the road for more than 24 hours.


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Based on those criteria, three locations were selected as possible locations for the demo projects, see Table 12.

Table 12: Possible locations for demo projects

Number Location Challenge

2 17+887 Flooding, erosion of the embankment, washing out. The road is normally not closed, but in the case of flooding, traffic can stop up to 24 hours.

8 21+182 Black spot, torrential stream, culvert exist but is clogged and closed by badly planned construction. Problems with erosion and still-standing water.

9 22+065 Torrential creek, threshold removed. Bridge needs to be replaced. Flooding, potential closure of the road.

Figure 4: Possible locations for demo projects

Location number 2 consists of a main bridge at the stream and three smaller bridges or culverts on the flooded area north of the stream. It is assumed that the road will be closed for less than 24 hours if the main bridge or one of the culverts is damaged by flooding. Thus, this location is not deemed suitable for the demo projects. At location number 8 there are problems with culverts under both the main road and the connecting road at an intersection. The problems at this location should be dealt with as part of the planned black spot measures. Thus, this location is not deemed suitable for the demo projects. Location number 9 is a bridge planned to be replaced in the near future. It is assumed that the road would have to be closed for more than 24 hours if the existing bridge is damaged by flooding. There is a cost estimate for a replacement bridge. For these reasons, this location was selected for the demo projects.

7.1.1. Demo project 1: Adaptation measures

The problem identified for this spot is flooding with potential closure of the road. There is also a danger of collapsing of the bridge. The problem is a torrential creek under the bridge. The probability of the problem is rated as “medium”, but the consequence is road closure for 24h or more. To avoid these problems, the bridge should be replaced.


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Figure 5: Selected locations for demo projects.

A replacement bridge is planned. The design is shown in the elevation drawing in Figure 6. The planned bridge is longer than the existing bridge, as shown in the drawing.

Figure 6: Planned bridge

Table 13: Estimated cost for adaptation measure

The construction cost shown below is based on a cost estimate by Ceste.

I Preparatory work 14 000 II Earth and stone works 23 000 III Concrete construction 93 000 IV Metal construction 67 000 V Other bridge works 11 000 VI Works not included above 43 000 VII Supplementary work (7%) 19 000 Total KM 270 000


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In the total project cost, a general costs for design, project administration etc. of 30 000 KM is added. Thus, the total cost for a replacement bridge is estimated to be 300 000 KM.

7.1.2. Demo project 2: Alternative routes

The identified alternative route between Ormanica and Srebrenik is shown on the map in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Alternative route M1.9, R 462 and R4612

The alternative route consists of three road sections. One short section of national road M 1.9 and two longer sections of regional roads 460 and 461. The limited available information about those road sections is shown in table 14.

Table 14: Road sections of the alternative route

Road number Length Traffic volume Heavy vehicles Speed limit 2) Estimated

travel speed

M 1.9 2.1 km Not known Not known Not known 60 km/h

R 460 16,1 km 3 500 v/d 8 % 30 – 50 km/h 45 km/h

R 461 13,4 km 3 500 v/d 8 % 30 -50 km/h 45 km/h

7.1.3. Demo project 3: Cost benefit analysis

Cost Benefit Analysis for Road Infrastructure Measures The principle for Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) for road infrastructure measures is rather simple. The present values of the costs for a road section or road network with and without the measure are compared. The measure is cost-effective if the costs with the measure are lower than the costs without the measure.

The costs are calculated for an appraisal period – normally the estimated lifespan of the measure - and discounted to present value with an internal rate of return. In the cost benefit

Alternative routeM 1.9

R 460

R 461

M 1.8


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analyses in the EBRD report 2015 “Road Climate Change Adaptation for the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina” the appraisal period is set at 30 years. The internal rate of return is not stated in the report. The European Commission advises to use a discount rate of 5 percent (“Sustainable safe road design” World Bank, 15 September 2005). Cost Benefit Analysis for a new road Often a CBA is made for a new or upgraded road or road network. The purpose could for example be to make the traffic safer and more efficient or to reduce the environmental impact. The cost in a CBA is the construction cost. The benefit in a CBA is the decreased costs for travel time, accidents, road maintenance etc. The construction costs as well as the road and traffic characteristics can often be rather well estimated. Thus, the uncertainty is mainly the projection of traffic and accidents, and the used values for travel time, vehicle operation, accidents etc.

Cost Benefit Analysis for climate adaptation measures In a CBA for a climate change adaptation measure, the cost-effectiveness of a measure aimed at avoiding future one-off road failure and remedial work is examined. The cost for the adaptation measure can be rather well estimated. However, the benefit, consisting of the present value of the costs for a future road failure, is more uncertain. It depends to a great extent on when the failure occurs and what internal rate of return is used. Furthermore, the extent of the remedial work and the consequences for the traffic are difficult to estimate. It is difficult to predict if and how long the road will be closed, thus forcing the traffic to use an alternative route. Consequently, a CBA for a climate adaptation measure is more uncertain than for a new road project. To handle that uncertainty, several different scenarios should be analysed.

Scenarios In this Demo Project, scenarios with different values for the following parameters are presented:

• cost for adaptation measure; • year of road failure; • internal rate of return; • duration of road closure.

Cost The cost in the CBA is the cost for adaptation measures to avoid future road failure. In the Demo Project, it is the cost for the replacement bridge, according to section 3.3 above.

Benefit The benefit in the CBA is the avoided costs for future road failure. In the Demo Project, it consists of the following costs:

Cost for remedial work In the case of a future road failure, it is assumed that a temporary bridge will be installed during the time a new bridge is constructed. The costs for a temporary bridge are assumed to


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be 60 000 KM. The costs for the new bridge are assumed to be the same as for the replacement bridge.

Yearly maintenance costs Yearly maintenance costs for cleaning of riverbed, strengthening of erosion protection etc. are assumed to be 10 000 KM/year.

Costs for redirected traffic The costs impost on traffic are calculated using the values in Table 15.

Table 15: Used values for calculation of traffic costs

Factor Value Basis

Time value: Passenger cars Heavy vehicles

21 KM/km 24 KM/km

Bosnian standard values for different vehicles (HDM-4, Highway Development & Management)

Vehicle operating cost: Passenger cars Heavy vehicles

0.50 KM/km 1.00 KM/km

Estimated base on Swedish values

Accident rate 0.62/ acc/milj vkm

Accident statistics for M1.8 2013-2015

Accident cost 65 000 KM/acc

Based on the report “The Costs of Road Traffic accidents in FB&H” (SweRoad 2011)

Traffic growth 1%/year Assumption

7.1.4. Results

Basic scenario

In the basic scenario the cost for adaptation measures are assumed to be 300 000 KM. The road failure is assumed to happen in the middle of the expected life span for the adaptation measure. The internal rate of return is set at 5 %, which is the rate recommended by the World Bank. The duration of road closure is set at 2 days, assuming that a temporary bridge will be installed in that time.

Table 16: Basic calculation

Cost for adaptation measure

Internal rate of return

Year of road failure

Duration of road closure

BC ratio

300 000 KM 5 % Project year 15 2 days 1.77

Benefit: Avoided road failure costs 531 481 KM

Traffic costs 248 577 Cost for road damages 175 563 Annual road costs 107 341

Cost: Adaptation costs 300 000 KM BC ratio: 1.77


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Scenario: Higher cost for adaptation measure If the cost for adaptation measure is assumed to be 100 % higher than the BC ratio will drop to 1.13, but the adaptation measure will still be cost-effective.

Table 17: Scenarios with different costs for adaptation measure





BC ratio

300 000 KM 5 % Project year 15 2 days

1.77

600 000 KM 1.13 Scenario: Higher internal rate of return If the internal rate of return is set at 10%, which is the normal rate used for road infrastructure projects in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the present value of the benefits will decrease and the adaptation measure will not be cost-effective.

Table 18: Scenarios with different internal rate of return



Year of road failure Duration of road closure

BC ratio

300 000 KM 5 %

Project year 15 2 days 1.77

10 % 0.93

Scenario: Different year for road failure If the road failure is assumed to happen early in the appraisal period, the present value of benefits will increase and the adaptation measure will be much more profitable. On the other hand, if the road failure is assumed to happen late in the appraisal period, the present value of benefits will decrease and the adaptation measure will be less profitable.

Table 19: Scenarios with different year for road failure





BC ratio

300 000 KM 5 %

Project year 5

2 days

2.38

Project year 15 1.77

Project year 25 1.38


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Scenario: Different duration of road closure The major part of the benefit is the avoided traffic costs caused by a future road failure. Consequently, if the road has to be closed for a longer time, the benefit will increase considerably and the adaptation measure will be much more cost-effective.

Table 20: Scenarios with different duration of road closure




BC ratio


5 days 3.01

Scenario with maximum BC ratio

The most cost-effective combination of the parameters studied in the scenarios above is:

• Low adaptation cost; • Low internal rate of return; • Early road failure; • Long road closure time.

Table 21: Scenario with maximum BC ratio




BC ratio


Scenario with minimum BC ratio

The least cost-effective combination of the parameters studied in the scenarios above is:

• High adaptation cost; • High internal rate of return; • Late road failure; • Short road closure time.

Table 22: Scenario with minimum BC ratio




BC ratio



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7.1.5. Conclusions for the demo projects

The cost-effectiveness of adaptation measures to avoid future road failure caused by climate change is mainly depending on when the failure occurs and what the economic consequences are. However, as the figures in the table above shows, it is effective to carry out adaptation measures in most of the scenarios.

The costs for traffic rerouting is a major part of the consequences. The internal rate of return is also important for the cost-effectiveness. The cost for the adaptation measure is an important part of the CBA calculation. However, this is not so critical for the result since similar measures, probably more expensive, will have to be taken when the road failure occurs. When comparing adaptation measure for climate change problems with other infrastructure measures the estimated year of occurrence is crucial.

The costs for adaptation measures and the consequences of a road failure should be possible to calculate rather well for different climate change problems. Thus, it should be possible to compare and rank those problems using the same year of occurrence and the same internal rate of return.


Output Description Status Next steps Example of adaptation measures

Examples of implementation of adaptation measures, including choice of alternative routes and economical aspects of the choices taken, carried out as pilot projects.

An example of how to calculate cost benefit was presented for JP Ceste in Novem-ber. More details of the calculations are presented in this report.

Formal integration into JP Ceste’s planning of the rehabilitation projects.


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8. Conclusions

This has been an interesting project and rewarding in many ways. The project team has done its best to involve the beneficiary as much as possible: through mapping their needs, involving their expertise in the project tasks and tailoring the products of the project for their use. We wish to thank the staff of JP Ceste for cooperating and sharing their knowledge, and in that way supporting our project.

The project team is of the opinion that important results have been achieved, in accordance with the ToR for the project and the working plan. It is our belief that the results of the project, combined with the competence of the staff of JP Ceste and the support of their management, can provide a good basis for protecting the road network in FBiH from climate change and developing a robust infrastructure in the future.

The team hopes that the project helped strengthen the contact between JP Ceste and HydroMet, the River Basin Agencies (Sava and Adriatic) and the Civil Protection Administration. We are grateful for these agencies’ participation in the project.

We acknowledge the difficulties road owners face from the complicated administration in Bosnia and Hercegovina, the presence of illegal and uncoordinated construction, the lack of coordination between infrastructure owners at various management levels, etc. However, the project has illustrated the benefits of cooperation.

Cooperation is a precondition for adaptation to a changing climate.


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9. Appendices

1. Collaboration agreements – proposed terms of collaboration for: 1.1 Ceste & HydroMet 1.2 Ceste & River Basin Agencies (Sava, Adriatic Sea) 1.3 Ceste & Administration of Civil Protection. 1.4 To the Federal Ministry of Transport and Communications – On collaboration for adaptation to climate change

2. Templates for database of weather-related events on the road network 2.1 Template for reporting weather related events 2.2 Database weather related events

3. Risk assessment of chosen road stretches 3.1 Description of the method for risk assessment 3.2 Results of risk assessment for M 1.8 3.3 Results of risk assessment for M 17 3.4 Results of risk assessment for M 4 3.5 Example of a vulnerability map (M1.8, current risk, 100 year flood)

4. Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change

Appendix 1

Proposed collaboration agreements between JP Ceste and:

1.1 Federal hydrometeorological institute BiH

1.2 River Basin Agencies (Sava, Adriatic Sea)

1.3 Administration of Civil Protection

1.4 To the Ministry of Transport and Communications – On collaboration for adaptation to climate change

Appendix 1.1

Climate change adaptation in FBiH Collaboration between JP Ceste and HydroMet JP Ceste is working on increasing the resilience of the road network to the impact of climate and climate change. An important part of the knowledge base for this work is provided by the Federal Hydrometeorological Institute (HydroMet). This document summarises the aims and contents of the collaboration between JP Ceste and HydroMet. Proposed terms of collaboration 1. Provide easy and practical access to data from HydroMet:

The project proposed, and the staff if JP Ceste set up, a simple on-line arrangement (website) of the most important sources of information for road engineers’ use.

The website will include links to the following:

• the official website of HydroMet • a link to the Climate Atlas with the main instructions for use • information of projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and water flow, for

each climate station area. In addition, an overview of the anticipated risks from natural hazards and how they are expected to change in the future climate.

HydroMet needs to inform of any changes that may be relevant for this site.

2. JP Ceste is extending its network of climate stations to include stations in critical road

stretches, especially the ones where winter operation is difficult. These climate stations should be compatible with the stations owned and operated by HydroMet. Therefore, HydroMet will provide assistance in purchasing, placing and operating the stations.

3. JP Ceste adapts design rules, guidelines, tenders and contracts in a way that the newest available data are used and /or a safety margin introduced in cases when one does not have updated climate data. HydroMet will assist this work, with recommendations on design levels and how to take into account inevitable uncertainty.

Appendix 1.2

Climate change adaptation in FBiH Collaboration between JP Ceste and the River Basin Agencies

JP Ceste is working on increasing the resilience of the road network to the impact of climate and climate change. An important part of the knowledge base for this work are flood data and statistics, and flood risk maps and operation plans, provided by the Sava River Basin Agency and the Adriatic Sea Watershed Agency

This document summarises the aims and contents of the collaboration between JP Ceste and the River Basin Agencies. Proposed terms of collaboration 1. Provide easy and practical access to data from River basin agencies

The project proposed, and the staff if JP Ceste set up, a simple on-line arrangement (website) of the most important sources of information for road engineers’ use. The website will include links to the following:

• links to the “Operative Plan for Flood Defence”, with explanations; • information on ongoing work - risk assessment and risk maps under development.

The River Basin Agencies need to inform of any changes that may be relevant for this site.

2. Both counterparties will make effort to improve the communication of needs and possibilities

JP Ceste needs to base their design and project documentation on updated information and flood statistics and maps. When requesting design flood values from the River Basin Agencies, JP Ceste will communicate the need for the most up-to-date values and recent statistical calculations, preferable including the estimated impact of climate change.

River Basin Agencies will, on their side, state the uncertainties in the values they provide on Ceste’s request and inform of a possible need for additional calculation.

The counterparties should agree upon how to divide the responsibility for the additional work.

3. JP Ceste adapts design rules, guidelines, tenders and contracts in a way that the newest available flood data are required, together with a description of uncertainty. These adaptations should be based on recommendations and advice from the River Basin Agencies. One should at least include clauses such as: “climate change has to be taken into consideration” or “the structure has to be designed to manage the climate changes during its lifespan”.

Appendix 1.3

Climate change adaptation in FBiH Collaboration between JP Ceste and the Federal Civil Protection Administration JP Ceste is working on increasing the resilience of the road network to the impact of climate and climate change. The Federal Civil Protection Administration is an important partner in managing incidents on the road and providing an easier recovery after unwanted events. This document summarises the aims and contents of the collaboration between JP Ceste and HydroMet. Proposed terms of collaboration

1. Recognising natural hazards The Federal Civil Protection Administration will ensure that natural hazards (including weather conditions and climate change) be recognised as one of the most important sources of risk. It is in the interest of the whole society that the road network is robust enough to preserve its role for the citizens, also in the future climate.

2. Maintaining a functional road in emergencies

The Federal Civil Protection Administration will make ensure the importance of a functional road network in emergencies is recognised. It is of mutual interest that roads provide safe evacuation channels.

3. Alternative routes

JP Ceste will decide on prioritised alternative routes for the main road stretches in the Federation, and communicate this to the Civil Protection Administration. It is of mutual interest to have alternative routes decided in advance, and prepared to take the load in emergencies.

Appendix 1.4

To the Ministry of Transport and Communications FBiH On collaboration for adaptation to climate change In the present project, the project team has looked into the needs for and benefits from collaboration between JP Ceste and four main partners:

• The Hydrometeorological Institute (HydroMet), responsible to the Government • The “River Basin Agencies”, responsible to the Ministry of Agriculture, Water

Management and Forestry: o Sava River Basin Agency o Adriatic Sea Watershed Agency

• Federal Administration for Civil Protection, responsible to the Government.

These partner agencies are among the stakeholders that are most important for the adaptation of the road sector to climate change. Without their competency and contributions, adaptation of the road network to climate change would not be complete and would not be effective enough.

The project team has formulated proposals for collaboration agreements between JP Ceste and these agencies (App 1.1 – 1.3), where the main points are good communication of data needs, possibilities for data supply and knowledge support.

HydroMet and the River Basin Agencies are important institutions for adaptation to climate change in all sectors. It is important to provide resources for their work and support legislation that motivates the implementation of the results of their work. Several project collaborators have put forward legislation as the best way to enable change. It is assumed that, if required by law, all involved institutions would conduct more extensive measurements or assessments. This calls for coordination at the ministry level.

The Federal Administration for Civil Protection is an important partner because of the need for good and efficient communications in emergencies. The project team wishes to stress the importance of implementing amendments to the regulatory documents of the Civil Protections Administration and/or rules of practice for JP Ceste, for more efficient collaboration.

• It is important to recognise weather related events among the threats to civil security. • The general importance of the road network and the services it provides must be

recognised as a condition for civil security, motivating efforts to ensure that the road network maintains its function also in the future climate.

• Finally, the need for a functional road network in emergencies has to be recognised and supported.

Therefore, we encourage the Federal Ministry of Transport and Communications to take initiatives, and contribute to the collaboration with the government (HydroMet and Federal Civil Protection Admin) and the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Management and Forestry (for “River Basin Agencies”).

http://www.fbihvlada.gov.ba/english/ministarstva/poljoprivreda.php

Appendix 2

Templates for database of weather-related events

on the road network

2.1 Template for reporting weather related events 2.2 Database weather related events

Reporting weather related event

Coordinates Date

Time of event Road closed/opened

Kanton City/municipality

Location/Road number

Event

Flooding Snow/avalanch Other: __________________

Landslide Flash flood

Storm Fire

Wheather condition

Description of event

Personal injury

Property damage

Environmental damages

Financial damages

Other information, e.g. if similar event happened before at the location, reason for the event.

Actions taken or suggested

Event reported by (name and affiliation):

Phone:

ID‐number Start date End date Hours closed Place Road Typ of road Kanton

City /Municipalit X‐Coordinate Y‐Coordinate Type of event Weather conditions Reason for event Description

Earlier event same place

If yes, what type?

Action taken Personal injury Property damage Environemental damage

Financial damage Other information

Appendix 3

Risk assessment of chosen road stretches

3.1 Description of the method for risk assessment 3.2 Results of risk assessment for M 1.8 3.3 Results of risk assessment for M 17 3.4 Results of risk assessment for M 4 3.5 Vulnerability maps for test roads

Appendix 3.1

Method for risk assessment of road stretches with respect to natural hazards and climate change 1

1. Introduction

The assessment of risks related to natural hazards was carried out on three road stretches prioritised by Ceste. The method combines simple criteria for interpreting consequences with a more detailed mapping and information on each vulnerable spot.

• The assessment focuses on the risk for disruption in traffic or road closure, and analyses all events that may lead to that.

• The outcome of the assessment is a map of vulnerable sports with a description of the challenges (usually only contractor’s knowledge) and scores for risk.

2. Team composition

The work team needs to cover all fields relevant for assessing the risk on the road stretch in the specific area, probably corresponding to the area of an operation contract. These are the desired fields of knowledge /experience:

• Planning • Environment • Geotechnics • Geology: landslide • Bridges, tunnels • Operation & maintenance • Signalisation • Water management; drainage, flood regimes, etc. • Climate expectation for the near and further future • Traffic safety • Emergency measures, traffic operation in emergencies

3. Basis for risk assessment – maps, data, information, local knowledge

Depending on what is available, the basis for the work will always be a combination of the existing maps /databases, knowledge of experts who can judges the situation in the lack of maps and data, and experience from operating the studied road section.

Ideally, the following maps would provide a good basis for risk assessment:

1 The procedure is derived from the method developed and applied by Norwegian Public Roads Administration (Jan Husdal et al., 2017)

• Road net data (including alternative routes), preferably GIS maps, including height data. • Documentation of earlier events, implemented measures, existing protection measures

(against floods, landslides, snow avalanches, rock falls). • Landslide risk maps (alternatively slope maps, vegetation maps) • Information /documentation of other known risks • Geological maps (soil types, erosion) • Hydrometeorological maps (wetness index, water shed, catchment area) • Flood maps • Elevation data • Natural protected areas

To the best possible degree, one should gather information of climate projections, maps of expected changes in climate parameters etc. HydroMet’s work on the Climate Atlas, projections of future climate and climate profiles provide a good basis for assessing the risks in the future. JP Ceste’s website for adaptation to climate change will include links to the main sources of information. Preparing a climate profile for the road sections to be studied is an important part of the preparation for risk assessment.

4. Steps of risk assessment

4.1. Risk identification

The first step is to list all the probable sources of risk for the road stretches one is assessing. The main unwanted event is traffic disruption /road closure. Here it is important to distinguish between causes and consequences. For example, the road can be closed due to bridge failure, which can be caused for many reasons: erosion of foundations, flooding over the traffic level, etc. The list of relevant risks for each road section is put together based on knowledge of previous events and experience from road operation, available flood maps and landslide risk maps.

4.2. Risk analysis

In the risk analysis phase, the stretch of road is analysed, step by step, answering the questions; what can happen, how probable is the event, and how severe are the consequences? The following figure illustrates the process, which will be explained in the further text.

Level of threat

Value /importance of the road

Adaptive capacity

Risk

Low + Low + Low = Low Measures can be implemented

Medium Medium Medium Medium Measures can be implemented

High High High High Measures must be implemented

4.2.1 Level of threat

Probability Probability can be understood as an estimate of how likely an event can occur, but also how frequently it occurs (today) or how frequently it can be expected to occur in the future. In some cases, there may be a good experience basis to provide a probability estimate. I other cases there will be none. In addition, frequency estimates are completely different for floods or extreme rainfall and landslides, meaning that it will be impossible to use the same scale for all types of events. Instead, a simplified 3-part probability or frequency rating is chosen, where the levels are low, medium and high, from 1 – 3. Consequences In this simple analysis, the consequences are described through the extent and duration of the disruption of traffic on the road. The extent of closure can be: (1) the event does not cause disruption of traffic, (2) the road is partially closed, for example allowing traffic on one lane only, and (3) the road is completely closed. A partially closed road can also mean reduced accessibility, in the terms of reduced speed, reduced use of the road for heavy vehicles, etc. The duration of the disruption is the time expected to rebuild or reopen a (partially) closed road. It is not practical to set exact values to this parameter, but rather define three intervals. For example (1) 6 hours, (2) 12 hours or (3) more than 24 hours. This can be up to the expert group to decide. The parameter “consequence” is then calculated by adding up the scores for extent and duration. A factored analysis is recommended, and has been applied in this project.

Consequence = 0,4 x extent + 0,6 x duration.

The weighting factors (in this case 0,4 and 0,6) are a matter of choice, and can be adjusted to suit the situation. For example if the extent of disruption is the critical aspect, it can be multiplied with a higher weight factor than the duration.

Level of threat The combination of the scores of probability and consequences gives the level of threat. Also here, a factored analysis is recommended, for example:

Threat = 0,4 x probability + 0,6 consequences

The factors (in this case 0,4 and 0,6) are a matter of choice, and can be adjusted to suit the purpose of the analysis. For example, if we are interested in including the rare events (with low probability), we can chose to multiply the probability with a low weighting factor.

4.2.2 Adaptive capacity

We need to add an expression of how serious a problem the disruption is. This factor is comprised of the estimate of two important aspects: redundancy and preparedness for managing specific events.

Redundancy The presence of alternative routes for transportation alleviates significantly the consequences of road closure and in some cases allows implementation of more sustainable measures. Redundancy should be judged and scored by estimating the adequacy or inadequacy of alternative routes for the traffic that is rerouted, the worst case being no alternative routes.

Preparedness This factor is an expression of the agency’s readiness to manage the events of a certain type. Some events will be more critical than others, depending on the available equipment for managing the event and available personnel with the right competence.

These two elements are also multiplied by weighting factors to calculate the level of adaptive capacity. If redundancy is judged as critical, it can be given a higher weighting factor than the agency’s preparedness to handle the event. For example (as in this case):

Adaptive capacity = 0,6 x Redundancy + 0,4 x readiness to handle

4.2.3. Value /importance/ of the road

The value or importance of the road is estimated based on three elements:

• the total traffic load (ADT) • the share of freight transport • the function of the road, expressed as the size of the area affected by the road

being taken out of function. Threshold values for these factors can be decided based on local criteria, but can also be decided for the road network as a whole. It is also a matter of choice how these three elements will be combined into an estimate of the road value.

4.2.4 Calculating the total risk

The level of threat is then combined with the score for the road value and the score for adaptive capacity in the following way:

Total risk = 0,5 x threat + 0,3 x adaptive capacity + 0,2 road value

A summary of the scored elements and the interpretation of scoring is shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Summary of scoring and calculation of risk

Parameter Score Explanation Threat: Consequences and probability – factored Consequence (1) Extent of closure

1 2 3

Road open Road partially closed Rod completely closed

Consequence (2) Duration of closure

1 2 3

6 h or more 12 h or more 24 h or more

Probability of event 1 2 3

Low Moderate High

Adaptive capacity Redundancy 1

2 3

Adequate Inadequate Non-existing

Preparedness 1 2 3

Good preparedness Moderate - some challenges Low or non-existing

Value /importance of the road ADT 1

2 3

Low Moderate High (locally defined)

Share of freight transport 1 2 3

Low Moderate High (locally defined, e.g. >15%, >20%, >25%)

Classes 1 2 3

In case traffic classes exist

Area of impact of taking the road our of function

1 2 3

Impact on local level Impact on regional level Impact on national level

Calculation of total risk: Consequence = 0,4 x [Extent of disruption] + 0,6 [Duration of disruption]

Threat = 0,4 x [Consequence] + 0,6 x [Probability]

Total risk = 0,5 x [Threat] + 0,3 x [Adaptive capacity] + 0,2 x [Road value]

4.3. Risk evaluation

The evaluation of risk implied that one has some more or less defined criteria for what is acceptable level of risk. The acceptable level of risk is sometimes an expression of the resources available to manage the risk, implement measures. In this work, a threshold value for total risk of 2,5 (of 3) was chosen. Points where the risk was 2,5 or above are considered vulnerable points of priority.

Further on, possibilities for implementing measures need to be identified. The main options are:

• further analysis - in case of insufficient data or other information. This method of risk assessment is rather course, it does not leave time for a detailed analysis. In addition, in some cases the expert group may lack specialist competence to judge a certain potential risk.

• preparedness to handle the event – if found sufficient or if other measures are not feasible or economically sound.

• maintenance or repair – if found sufficient for managing the risk or decreasing the extent or duration of the disruption.

• renewal – implementation of measures that increasing robustness of the road or road structure including, and reduce the risk.

A combination of several measure types may also be the solution.

4.4. Final comments

This method of risk assessment is simple to carry out, but provides a good overview of vulnerabilities. It combines concrete information from maps and documents with experience and practical knowledge from contractors and the road agency’s personnel.

The method leaves a number of possibilities for adjustments. For example, all the weighting factors can be chosen to suit the purpose or scope of the assessment. Adjustments should be made based on the experience from application of the method.

It is important to carry out the analyses in regular intervals, for example annually. It is also important to have a clear idea how information from the analysis will be stored and how it should be used as input in the usual road management in the agency.

Appendix 3.2 M1.8 Pelagicevo - Srebrenik Factor Road value: 0,3

Risk Assessment - 1. trial 19.9.2017. Scoring and calculation Road value: 3,0

0,4 0,6 0,4 0,6 0,5 0,6 0,4 0,2

Coordinates Challenge Current risk Future risk Extent DurationConsequence Current prob. Futur prob. Current threat Future threat Alt.routes Preparedness Adaptive capacity

1 15+781

Tunnel Ormanica prone to flooding. Remedial measures are limited. Usually one has to wait until the level of the river Tinja is lowered. The regional road serves as alternative route.

2,0 2,3 2 2 2,0 1 2 1,4 2,0 1 3 1,8

2 17+887

Flooding, erosion of the embankment and washing out. The road is normally not closed. Under heavy rain, traffic can stop up to 24 hrs.

2,0 2,3 2 3 2,6 1 2 1,6 2,2 1 2 1,4

3 19+180

Flooding due to dysfunctional drainage. There is a problem of illegal construction along the road. Still high-water causes damage of the embankment and road structure, which also represents a threat for traffic safety.

2,4 2,4 2 1 1,4 3 3 2,4 2,4 1 3 1,8

4 19+578

Narrow riverbed. Slower water flow causes flooding and damage of embankment.

2,2 2,5 2 3 2,6 2 3 2,2 2,8 1 1 1,0

5 20+195

Culvert closed due to illegal construction. New drainage structures necessary.

2,3 2,6 2 2 2,0 2 3 2,0 2,6 1 3 1,8

6 20+872 Under-dimensioned culvert, often clogged. Inadequate drainage. 2,1 2,4 2 2 2,0 2 3 2,0 2,6 1 1 1,0

7 21+182

Black spot. Torrential stream. A culvert exists, but it is often clogged, and out of function due to illegal construction. The water floods over the road.

2,4 2,4 3 1 1,8 3 3 2,5 2,5 1 1 1,0

8 21+182

Connected to point nr 7. The culvert under the lateral road is closed. Problems with erosion and still-standing water.

2,3 2,6 3 3 3,0 2 3 2,4 3,0 1 1 1,0

9 22+065

Torrential creek causes flooding and damage of pillars of the bridge. Potential road closure due to bridge damage.

2,2 2,5 2 3 2,6 2 3 2,2 2,8 1 1 1,0

10 24+950

Torrential creek, causes clogging of the plate culvert. Flooding, settlement of the road. Risk in future climate.

2,1 2,4 2 2 2,0 2 3 2,0 2,6 1 1 1,0

11M1.8 004

2+616Extra point

The tunnel Drenik is flooded, water carries debris and rock. Narrow corridor between the road and railway. Flooding causes traffic disruption.

2,5 2,8 3 3 3,0 2 3 2,4 3,0 1 3 1,8

Main results

Appendix 3.3 M17 Karuse Ozimica Factor Road value: 0,2


0,4 0,6 0,4 0,6 0,5 0,6 0,4 0,3

Coordinates Challenge Current risk Future risk Extent Duration Consequence Current prob. Future prob. Current threat Future threat Alt.routes Preparedness Adaptive capacity

1 0+000

Road crossing, at the mouth of the river Usora into Bosna. Specially exposed to flooding, causing the closure of two magistral roads. Problems are mostly caused by accumulation of water flow in Usora due to high water in Bosna at Doboj.

2,7 3,0 3 3 3,0 2 3 2,4 3,0 3 3 3,0

2 3+625

Erosion in the forest area on the right hand side, causing rockfall and landslides. Heavy rain causes transport of debris and gravel, clogging the culverts. Water flows over the road. Frequent cleaning of waterways required to prevent serious damage. The road is often closed during heavy rain.

2,7 2,7 2 2 2,0 3 3 2,6 2,6 3 2 2,6

3 3+810

Connected to point nr 2. Due to poorly regulated construction along the road, the water changes its course, and flows towards the previous point, instead of passing through the designed culvert, which remains dry.

2,7 2,7 2 2 2,0 3 3 2,6 2,6 3 2 2,6

4 4+265

Flooding of the road due to damaged drainage system. Possibility of smaller landslides. Torrential streams carry debris, gravel, braches etc. into the culvert, leading to flooding of the road and road closure up to 4 hrs.Possible solution: increasing the capacity of drainage structures, in cooperation with the municipality.

2,8 2,8 3 2 2,4 3 3 2,8 2,8 3 2 2,6

5 5+000

Flooding, insufficient drainage capacity. Usually no road closure.

2,0 2,3 3 2 2,4 1 2 1,6 2,2 3 1 2,2

6 6+136

Water streams in the hills often change courses, the water does not reach the planned culvert. The local roads are poorly constructed, and water often flows on the road surface. Usually no road closure.

2,4 2,7 2 3 2,6 2 3 2,2 2,8 3 1 2,2

7 6+590

The drainage system is damaged, and drainage capacity reduced. Heavy rain can lead to rockfall, flooding and settlement of the road.

2,3 2,6 2 2 2,0 2 3 2,0 2,6 3 1 2,2

8 8+000-8+800

Left hand side:The river Bosna erodes the embankment foot. Regularly repaired as soon as problems appear. Road usually not closed, but potential threat of road rupture.Right side:Possibility of rock fall and landslides, usually not causing road closure.

2,2 2,5 3 3 3,0 1 2 1,8 2,4 3 1 2,2

9 9+020 - 9+320

Kosova - 300 m long active landslide stretch, activated in the 2014 flood. Temporary road established, full capacity. Stabilising measures undertaken: drainage and counter-loading.

3,0 3,0 3 3 3,0 3 3 3,0 3,0 3 3 3,0

10 12+000-12+800

Left side:River Bosna erodes the road embankment. Repair measures carried out after the 2014 flood. Right hand side:Possibility of rock-fall and smaller landslides, usually not causing road closure. 1,8 2,1 1 1 1,0 1 2 1,0 1,6 3 1 2,2

11 12+800New forest road leads water astray, causes flooding and debris transport during rain. Culvert clogged.

2,1 2,4 2 1 1,4 2 3 1,8 2,4 3 1 2,2

12 15+450-15+850

Left side:Damaged supporting wall and protective structure. Illegal construction narrowed the riverbed.Right hand side:Possibility of rock-fall and smaller landslides, usually not causing road closure.

2,7 2,7 2 3 2,6 3 3 2,8 2,8 3 1 2,2

13 18+050-18+550

The river Bosna erodes the road embankment during heavy rain, causing flooding over a large area around the magistral and parallel regional road. The northern entrance to the city of Maglaj was totally blocked due to this, during the whole duration of the flood in 2014.

2,5 3,0 2 3 3,0 2 3 2,0 3,0 3 2 3,0

Main results

Appendix 3.4 M4 Donja Orahovica - Sicki brod Factor Road vlue: 0,2


0,4 0,6 0,4 0,6 0,5 0,6 0,4 0,3

Coordinates Challenge Current risk Future riskExtent Duration Consequence Current prob. Future prob. Current threat Future threat Alt.routes Preparedness Adaptive capacity

1 0+420

Insufficient water flow capacity under the bridge. Heavy rain and water flow cause flooding over a larger area. The problem occurs 1-2 times a year. Road closure up to 12 hrs. Remedial measure: increase water flow profile by lowering the riverbed. 2,4 2,4 3 2 2,4 3 3 2,8 2,8 1 2 1,4

2 from 0+420 to 1+500

Road frequently flooded during heavy rain. Water comes from the lateral roads. Culverts frequently clogged. Very difficult to find practical remedial measures because of complicated administration. There is an agreement with municipal administration to repair the culvert. Altered water flow in the river could help prevent flooding. 2,5 2,5 3 2 2,4 3 3 2,8 2,8 1 3 1,8

3 from 18+000 to 20+200

Approximately 2 km of the road is floods. The bridge can be covered with water, does not happen often. Some improvements have been carried out. Riverbed regulated after 2014. This is also a black spot, because of high speed. 2,0 2,3 3 3 3,0 1 2 1,8 2,4 1 3 1,8

Main results

Appendix 3.5 Vulerability maps for test road stretches

M 1.8 Pelagićevo - Srebrenik: 100-year and 500-year flood lines and vulnerable spots on the road

M17 Karuše – Ozimica: 100-year and 500-year flood lines and vulnerable spots on the road

M4 Donja Orahovica – Šićki brod: 100-year and 500-year flood lines and vulnerable spots on the road

Appendix 4

Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change

Action Plan for Climate Resilient Roads in the

Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina

With the Central European Initiative (the Donor) providing funding for the consultancy assignment Climate Resilience in the Bosnian Road Network, this document was prepared by SweRoad (the Consultant) for the benefit of the Government of FBiH and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the EBRD). The views, opinions, assumptions, statements and recommendations expressed herein are those of the Consultant and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the EBRD or the Donor.

Contents

1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 3

2. Context: Climate change and roads in FBiH .................................................................................... 3

3. Objective of action plan .................................................................................................................. 4

4. Summary of actions for JP Ceste ..................................................................................................... 6

5. Actions ............................................................................................................................................. 7

Action area 1: Knowledge generation, evidence and dissemination ...................................... 7

Action area 2: Effective institutions and regulatory frameworks ........................................... 7

Action area 3: Effective adaptation approaches ..................................................................... 8

Action area 4: Adequate funding for adaptation .................................................................. 10

1. Introduction In May 2014 Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) experienced the worst floods since records began 120 years ago. The damage to the country’s infrastructure, and in particular its roads, was substantial and significantly impacted the economy with more than 20 deaths, 90,000 people displaced and billions of dollars in damages. Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the frequency of such damaging events. The resilience of the FBiH roads network will rely upon the capacity of the “Roads of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina” (JP Ceste) to systematically integrate climate resilience into future investments. Using funds from the Central European Initiative, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) contracted the Swedish Roads agency (SweRoad) to support JP Ceste to introduce international best practice on identifying and managing climate risks to the country’s road network.

This Action Plan, prepared in the context of the technical support provided by EBRD, outlines specific actions that JP Ceste intends to undertake to move towards a climate resilient roads network in FBiH. The Action Plan supports implementation of the high level objectives of the National Transport Strategy (adopted in 2016), and aligns with the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Climate Change Adaptation and Low Emission Development Strategy adopted in 2013 (see Box 1). The Action Plan has been prepared by SweRoad, the Swedish Roads agency, using Swedish and Norwegian experience with climate change action plan development for the roads sector, as well as the PIARC framework for climate change adaptation strategies1 and the CEDR template for creating action plans.2 The main actions have been identified in close consultation with JP Ceste.

2. Context: Climate change and roads in FBiH Studies of temperature change for the period 1961-2010 in FBiH indicate that temperatures have increased in all areas of the country. During the same period of time much of the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina showed a slightly increasing trend in annual precipitation. However, the number of days with intense rainfall has increased, as has the number of days with extreme high temperatures. In the case of FBiH, notable climate change risks include increased precipitation and greater variability and intensity of rain events. Given that increased rainfall already exacerbates the impact of landslides on the transport network, that the number and intensity of rain events may become more common highlights the importance of determining transport network vulnerabilities to rain events when planning preventative investments. Due to the great diversity in climate, different parts of FBiH face different types of threats to its road network. In winter intense snowfall, cold spells, avalanches and widely fluctuating temperatures can cause severe problems for the road administrators in carrying out their work. In spring, melting snow, high water levels, rainfall and frost heave can damage the

1 World Road Association. (2015) International climate change adaptation framework for road infrastructure. 2 Conference of Europe Directors of Road. (2016) Acting on climate change.

infrastructure by causing flooding, landslides and cracks in the pavement. During summer and autumn intense rainfall can, for example, result in mudflows and floods. Long periods of heat and drought can damage the pavement and lead to major road damage when it does finally rain.

3. Objective of action plan The objective of the action plan is to provide JP Ceste with a concrete set of actions that can be implemented over the next 3 years to lay the foundations for a systemic approach to deal with climate change. It is also hoped to provide the FBIH government with a useful bottom-up input for the development of a national climate change adaptation strategy for the transport sector, covering all stakeholders in the sector, and/or mainstreaming of climate change in future transport strategies.

Box 1: National Transport Strategy and CCA-LEDS

The National Transport Strategy has a vision of an efficient and economical transport sector in FBIH and the goal of ensuring the sustainable development of the transport system, and covers the period 2015-2030. Although the state of the roads is judged to be inadequate, resilience to climate related challenges is not explicitly mentioned. Nonetheless, addressing climate resilience is an important horizontal measure to ensure that high-level objectives such as ‘providing the best level of services’ are not disrupted by a changing climate.

The Climate Change Adaptation and Low Emission Development Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina (CCA-LEDS), adopted by the Council of Ministers in cooperation with the entity governments in 2014, serves as the overarching, integrated framework for development of sectoral strategies and action plans, covering the period up to 2025. There is not yet a transport-related climate change adaptation strategy or action plan under the CCA-LEDS. This Action Plan for JP Ceste is intended to: (a) contribute as an input to the development of a transport sector strategy if such a work will start and (b) serve as an immediate guidance framework for sector stakeholders to initiate action on the ground, as well as orient technical support to the sector (such as the forthcoming World Bank technical assistance programme). In order to ensure maximum alignment with the CCA-LEDS, this action plan has been structured according to the four interlinked priority areas identified in the CCA-LEDS, namely: Knowledge generation, evidence and dissemination: Climate change risks,

vulnerabilities and opportunities should be identified, quantified and communicated. This provides a basis for policy development.

Effective institutions and regulatory frameworks: An important condition for addressing climate change risks and opportunities is setting up an effective institutional and regulatory framework.

Effective adaptation approaches: Adaptation approaches should be an integrated part of decision-making. They should have clear objectives and a delivery plan.

Adequate funding for adaptation: Adequate resources need to be ensured so that adaptation measures can be implemented on time, effectively, and delivering the expected outcomes.

4. Summary of actions for JP Ceste The 10 action points (structured in line with the CCA-LED’s priority areas) are summarized in the following table. As the owner of the action plan, JP Ceste will take leadership for implementing the actions.

Action Deliverable(s) Time frame Action area 1 Knowledge generation, evidence and dissemination 1 Raise awareness about the impact of the

climate, climate change adaptation and resilience in all parts of JP Ceste.

Communication plan

2017-ongoing

2 Establish and maintain a practical portal for gathering information on weather, climate and climate projections.

Web page 2017- ongoing

Action area 2 Effective institutions and regulatory frameworks 3 Have a clear allocation of responsibility and

mandate for climate change adaptation work Decision on how to structure CCA-work in Ceste.

2018

4 Establish collaboration with the most important stakeholders.

Collaboration agreements

2018

5 Propose amendments of the most important guidelines for design/maintenance so that climate change aspects are included.

Revised prioritised guidelines

2018 - 2019

Action area 3 Effective adaptation approaches 6 Assess vulnerable assets and road stretches on

the existing road network. Provide maps of vulnerability.

Risk assessment method developed and scanning carried out.

2017-2019

7 Adapt supervision and safety inspections to the impact of the climate.

Updated documents 2018

8 Establish a system for saving data on road network weather related events.

Basic database & in-data template

2017- ongoing

9 Identify alternative routes for magistral roads. Map of alternative routes.

2018

Action area 4 Adequate funding for adaptation 10 Estimate the costs of and the financing

possibilities for carrying out the prioritized measures.

Overview report 2018

5. Actions Action area 1: Knowledge generation, evidence and dissemination

Action 1: Raise awareness about the impact of the climate, climate change adaptation and resilience in all parts of JP Ceste.

The level of knowledge and understanding of climate change adaption within JP Ceste varies. There is a need to increase this knowledge, especially on topics such as how climate change can affect the infrastructure, what kind of risks will increase in the future, and how to build a resilient infrastructure. Increasing this knowledge within the organization can be structured by a communication plan stipulating needed actions. The communication plan should be developed by March 2018. The plan should include actions on articles, seminars, workshops and the collection of basic information. The plan should include how this information will be made available for everyone at JP Ceste to use. The actions in the communication plan should all be carried out during 2018. A new communication plan should then be developed for each year.

Deliverable: Communication plan Action 2: Establish and maintain a practical portal for gathering information on weather, climate, climate projections, climate profiles etc. for the needs of planning, construction and maintenance of roads.

The portal will mainly consist of links to the homepages of relevant public administrations, e.g., HydroMet. In addition to proving providing an overview of sources of data and information, the website will contribute to the general awareness of the implications of climate change. The target groups are employees at Ceste working with planning, design, maintenance and operation, contracts, etc – that is, all functions that need to take into consideration climate change. The portal shall also include an overview of the main products and summaries for projects sponsored by donors such as EBRD and the World Bank. The web page should be up and running by June 2018 and then be updated regularly. The CCA-coordinator at JP Ceste could be appointed as the person responsible for the web page.

Deliverable: Web page, on JP Ceste’s internal network.

Action area 2: Effective institutions and regulatory frameworks Action 3: Have a clear allocation of responsibility and mandate for climate change adaptation work.

Climate change adaptation is an interdisciplinary field, affecting several parts of a road administration. Therefore, work on climate change adaptation in JP Ceste needs to be structured so that it is clear which part of the organization has the overall responsibility. It is important to appoint one climate change adaptation coordinator and clarify that person’s mandate and responsibilities. In order to integrate the climate change adaptation work in with the ordinary

work at the road administration, it should be made part of an already existing organization structure and not a new side organization. By March 2018 the management of JP Ceste needs to decide how to internally structure the CCA work. That structure should be in place within three months after the decision.

Deliverable: Decision on how to structure CCA-work in JP Ceste.

Action 4: Establish collaboration with the most important stakeholders: the Federal Hydrometeorological Institute, Sava River Basin Agency, Adriatic Sea Watershed Agency, and the Civil Protection Administration, for effective communication of needs and possibilities regarding climate adaptation.

The SweRoad/EBRD project has provided draft collaboration agreements to JP Ceste. The collaboration agreements cover data accessibility and use, communication of data needs in individual projects, revision of design rules and the need for natural hazards to be recognised as one of the most important sources of risk. In the short term, the agreements should be formally signed by all the parties. An evaluation of the collaboration should take place around 12 months after setting up the collaboration, with a view to identify how the collaboration could be improved further. Deliverable: Terms of collaboration agreed upon and followed. Action 5: Propose amendments of the most important guidelines for design /maintenance so that climate change aspects are included.

Changes in climate – for example, in precipitation patterns - will affect the very basis for design guidelines in FBiH. Drainage capacity needs to be altered and resilience levels for floods need to be increased. Overviews of the most important issues to revise to include the impacts of climate change have been provided by an EBRD report in 2015 and the SweRoad/EBRD project. In a first stage JP Ceste needs to state which level to use (for example, rainfall intensity) in the prioritized guidelines and, during the second stage, suggest revision to the Ministry of Communications and Transport. This work should be carried out during 2018 and 2019.

Deliverable: Proposal to the Ministry for revision of prioritised guidelines

Action area 3: Effective adaptation approaches Action 6: Assess vulnerable assets and road stretches on the existing road network. Provide maps of vulnerability.

The SweRoad/EBRD project has provided JP Ceste with a method for risk and vulnerability assessment of chosen road stretches in order to provide a better basis for dealing with vulnerabilities and developing more effective operation and maintenance contracts. The method has been applied on three prioritized road stretches in FBiH. The outcome of these analyses are maps where known and potential vulnerabilities are included. JP Ceste should evaluate the method and improve it if needed. JP Ceste should then continue to assess the risks and

vulnerabilities of the road stretches that are included in the modernization programme, sponsored by EBRD and the World Bank. GIS-based maps for the roads should be developed.

Deliverable: Develop risk assessment method and carry out scanning.

Action 7: Adapt supervision and safety inspections to the impact of the climate.

Inspections and supervision are part of routine maintenance work and can be used as tools to prevent weather related events. For example, geographical areas identified by a risk and vulnerability assessment method may need to be inspected more often. Extra supervision of drainage system may be necessary when there are storm warnings coming. Inspections and supervision normally follow set procedures and checklists. Instead of creating new types of inspections and supervision it is important to include climate change and weather events in the existing documents. As a first stage, JP Ceste needs to identify relevant documents and, as second stage, update the documents. This work should be carried out during 2018.

Deliverable: Updated documents

Action 8: Establish a system for saving data on road network weather related events.

In order to build a resilient road network, it is important to increase knowledge about the assets. A risk assessment method will provide an understanding of potential risks and vulnerabilities. However, this information needs to be continuously complemented with data on relevant events - for example landslides and flooding. Such information is important for learning, sharing experiences and developing proposals for measures to prevent similar events from happening again. The SweRoad/EBRD project has provided JP Ceste with a basic in-data template that can be used to gather the most crucial information about such events. The project has also provided a simple Excel file that can be used as a database from which the coordinates of the events can be used to create GIS maps. By the end of 2018 JP Ceste needs to have tested the method, improved it if needed, and evaluate if this method of collecting data is useful or not.

Deliverable: Basic database & in-data template

Action 9: Identify alternative routes for magistral roads.

The roads in FBiH are categorized as motorways, expressways, magistral roads, regional roads and local roads. Motorways and expressways were built more recently and to better standards than the other roads in the country and are more resilient (e.g. to weather related events). Magistral roads are often very important in the local and regional areas. However, since most of them were built a while back, they are more vulnerable to extreme weather and climate change. Although the modernisation program is aimed at enhancing the quality of the magistral road network, there is still a need for adequate alternative routes. JP Ceste needs to identify the magistral roads that are most vulnerable with respect to lack of alternative routes by applying

the results of the risk assessment method. During 2018 and onwards the vulnerability maps JP Ceste creates should be complemented with suggestions for alternative routes.

Deliverable: Map of alternative routes.

Action area 4: Adequate funding for adaptation Action 10: Estimate the costs of and the financing possibilities for carrying out the prioritized measures.

It is not possible to adapt the entire road infrastructure to climate change and extreme weather events. It is therefore important that the measures planned and taken are the most economically sound ones. The SweRoad/EBRD project and an EBRD-study[1] carried out in 2015 has provided JP Ceste with methods and examples of how to carry out cost benefit analysis for different adaptation measures. Based on these methods and the analyses from the risk and vulnerability assessment, JP Ceste needs to estimate the costs of and financing possibilities for carrying out prioritized measures. In combination with Action 3 of this action plan JP Ceste also needs to identify the personnel resources needed - for example the cost of an appointed climate change adaptation coordinator and personnel working with GIS maps. This work needs to be carried out during 2018.

Deliverable: Overview report

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References • The Ministry of Communication and Transport of BiH (2016) Framework Transport

Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina. • The Federal Ministry of Transport and Communications of FBiH (2016) Transportna

Strategija Federacije BIH • European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2015) Road Climate Change

Adaptation for the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. • World Road Association (2015) International climate change adaptation framework

for road infrastructure. • Conference of Europe Directors of Road. (2016) Acting on climate change. • UNDP (2013) Climate Change Adaptation and Low Emission Development Strategy. • SweRoad (2017) Consulting Services for JP Ceste Federacije Bosne i Hercegovine -

Climate Resilience in the Bosnian Road Network EBRD Final Interim Report.

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