Consultation Meeting On theConsultation Meeting On theIntegrated Drought Management

Programme

Mohamed AIT KADIChair of GWP Technical Committee

Geneva, Switzerland, 15-16 November 2010

Technical committee

To provide intellectual leadership on key strategic issues (GWP strategy 2009-2013)

To be fully involved in Making GWP’s Knowledge Chain Work : technical capacities, experiences and expertise of regions will be systematically mobilizedexpertise of regions will be systematically mobilized

GWP Knowledge Chain

GWPO/SEC• Coordinate & Promote the Provision/Sharing of Knowledge/Experiences• Integrate Knowledge as part of the Communication culture of the GWP Network

KP/SA TEC RWP/CWPRTG

Integrate Knowledge as part of the Communication culture of the GWP Network• Identify technical needs & Coordinate with the regions

Provide an accessible and highquality scientific/ empiricalknowledge base

Provide clear insights to lead & inform policy and decisionmakers on IWRM issues

Establish strategic priorities in which information, knowledge and expertise is needed to solvepractical problems faced by the Region/Country

KP/SAParticipate to sharedpublications/knowledgeproducts

Provide technical & policyadvice and support on issues of specific relevance to regionaland country needs

Produce high quality, peerreviewed and evidence basedinformation, background material and policy briefsshared publications…

Region/Country

Promote the emergence of knowledge networks & mobilise Centers of excellence as collaborative Centers at Regional/ Country levels

Provide technical and policy adviceand support on issues of specificrelevance to regional and country needs

Sujets de discussion

P é t l i i l idé

Morocco is a highly water stressed country with erratic rainfall and frequent droughts.

The country is reaching the end of the water development era. Water resources management is therefore shifting to the more difficult task of ensuring economically, socially and environmentally efficient water • Présentez les principales idées que vous

allez développer

y yallocation within the existing water resources constraints.

Increasing Frequency & Severity of Droughts

Drought Severity Variations in Morocco

Decreasing Precipitation

• une rétrogradation statistiquement significative de 2.37 mm par an est enregistrée, soit  plus que 113 mm sur 48 ans.

Durée maximale des jours consécutifs secs RR < 1 mm (Maroc)

• Allongement de la durée maximale des jours consécutifs secs dépassant les +9 jours en 48 ans.

• Cette durée s’est accrue qu’à partir de 1995, d’une façon claire enregistrant ainsi la valeur maximale en 1999 de 117 jours .

• une baisse significative de la durée maximale des jours consécutifs humides  de ‐0.02 jours par an  

Durée maximale des jours consécutifs humides RR > 1 mm (Maroc)

Indice de De Martonne Climat

1961 ‐ 1985

1986 ‐2005

EXPANSION OF ARIDITYEXPANSION OF ARIDITY

[I = P/(T+10)]

Aride

Semi‐aride

Subhumide

Humide

Climat

(DMN, 2007)

Source: A. Lhafi, HEFLDSource: A. Lhafi, HEFLD

50

70 %

Fluctuation of AGP and GDP

0

-30

-10

10

30

50

0

-50

80 84 88 92 96

GDP AGP

Morocco’s Demographic Transition 50 100

202530354045

Mill

ions

40

50

60

70

80

90

%

Population

Rural

Urban

Urbanity ratio

12

05

1015

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

0

10

20

30

Morocco’s Economic Transition

Morocco’s GDP (BDH) Structure of the EconomyShare in GDP (%)

Rewable Water Resources/ca/RB

1190

8531045

141

856

512418

1144

161

0200400600800

100012001400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

River Basins

Ren

ewab

le W

ater

R

esou

rces

m3/

ca

1

23

4

56 8

730 m3 /ca/year

Water resources endowment/distribution

7

9

730 m /ca/year

Deficit/surplus

96

1068

-35 11 -450010001500

14

-219

35

-1468

-163 -126

11 4

-2000-1500-1000

-5000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

River Basins

Mm

3

Key Questions

How much more irrigation does Morocco need to meet th f t d f i l ti ?the future needs of a growing population?

How to restructure consumption patterns from the present wasteful low value water intensive uses?

How can farmers achieve a higher livelihood from every drop of water?

What will the side effects on the rural community be by transferring water to cities? And what are the implicationstransferring water to cities? And what are the implications for food security?

Does the import of food “virtual water” support food security and a more equitable and efficient allocation of water?

Water Sector Reforms (1995)

• The adoption of a long term strategy for an integrated water resources management;g ;

• The development of a new legal and institutional framework to promote decentralized management and increase stakeholder participation;

• Introducing economic incentives in water allocation decisions through rational tariff and cost recovery;

• Taking capacity enhancing measures to meet institutional challenges for the management of water resources; and g g

• Establishing effective monitoring and control of water quality to reduce environmental degradation

Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099

Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs(compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)

Climate change impact on resources Climate change impact on resources endowment & variabilityendowment & variability

Model-Projected Runoff Change (%)[(2041-2060)-(1900-1970)][(2041-2060)-(1900-1970)]

Coop

WS(Milly et al., 2005)

Climate Shift 80s?

Moyenne mobile 20 ans (série officielle)Loukkos+LaouSebouBouregregO E Rbi

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

s m

oyen

s 20

ans

(hm

3/an

)

Oum Er RbiaTensiftMoulouyaLinéaire (Oum Er Rbia)

0

1 000

2 000

1 945 1 950 1 955 1 960 1 965 1 970 1 975 1 980 1 985 1 990

1ère année

App

orts

IDM REQUIREMENTS Successful implementation of IDM requires a lot of

data and strong analytical capacities

Data on all aspects (meteorological, hydrological, economic, social, environmental..) need to be strategically collected and more systematically monitored >>> National Drought Observatory

C l i k h ld li di l l f

21

Create a multistackeholder policy dialogue platform to address the drought challenge in a properly holistic manner >>> High Water and Climate Council