Insight Consulting Exercising the Top Team Simon Langdon, Principal Consultant.
Consultant Team presentation on Q2 Results
Transcript of Consultant Team presentation on Q2 Results
CONSULTANT TEAM
PRESENTATION ON Q2 2020
►Sept 16, 2020
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
INTRODUCTION
►Presentation takes a closer look at Q2 progress, in particular findings from KPI data
►High level takeaways− Despite challenges of COVID, Q2 program participation as
a percent of plan was strong
− Midway through the year overall savings tracking lower as a % of annual planned savings compared to 2019• Oil and propane savings were higher as a % of annual planned
savings• Q2 Residential savings are lagging behind Q1 2020 and Q2
2019, but not by a huge amount.• C&I and Income eligible particularly behind
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www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
PORTFOLIO
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www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
PORTFOLIO PARTICIPATION
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►Overall participation in Q2 2020 higher as a % of annual planned savings compared to Q2 2019
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Total Portfolio Participants - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio
Residential
Income Eligible
Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
LIFETIME SAVINGS – PORTFOLIO
WIDE (ALL FUEL SITE MMBTU)
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Total Portfolio Lifetime Savings - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio
Residential
Income Eligible
Commerical & Industrial
►All fuels portfolio savings in Q2 2020 lower as a % of annual planned savings compared to Q2 2019− Residential slightly higher in Q2 2020 compared to 2019
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
LIFETIME SAVINGS – ELECTRIC
(MWH)
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Electric Portfolio Lifetime Savings - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio Residential Income Eligible Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
LIFETIME SAVINGS – GAS
(THERMS)
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Gas Portfolio Lifetime Savings - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio Residential Income Eligible Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
LIFETIME SAVINGS – OIL AND
PROPANE MMBTU
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►Oil and propane savings in Q2 2020 higher as a % of annual planned savings compared to Q2 2019− Driven by residential savings
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Total Portfolio Oil and Propane Savings - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio
Residential
Income Eligible
Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
RESIDENTIAL AND INCOME
ELIGIBLE
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www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
RES ELECTRIC SAVINGS BY END
USE Q1 VS Q2 2020
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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Life
tim
e El
ectr
ic S
avin
gs (
MW
h)
Lifetime Residential Electric Savings
Hot Water
HVAC
Envelope
Process
Behavior
Lighting
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
RES ELECTRIC SAVINGS BY END
USE 2019 YTD VS 2020 YTD
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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Q2 2019 Q2 2020
Life
tim
e El
ectr
ic S
avin
gs (
MW
h)
Q2 YTD Lifetime Residential Electric Savings
Hot Water
Process
Refrigeration
Envelope
Behavior
HVAC
Lighting
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
RES GAS SAVINGS BY END USE
Q1 VS Q2 2020
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Life
tim
e G
as S
avin
gs (
MM
Btu
)
Lifetime Residential Gas Savings
Hot Water
Behavior
Envelope
HVAC
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
RES GAS SAVINGS BY END USE
2019 YTD VS 2020 YTD
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0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Q2 2019 Q2 2020
Life
tim
e G
as S
avin
gs (
MM
Btu
)
Q2 YTD Residential Gas Savings
Hot Water
Behavior
HVAC
Envelope
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
RESIDENTIAL AND INCOME ELIGIBLE
HEAT PUMPS
Heat Pump Unit Type Description2019
Evaluated 2020 YTD
Residential
Lost Opportunity Efficiency upgrade of assumed baseline heat pump 8,276 2,346
Energy Optimization Displacement of electric resistance space heat 1,001 581
Fuel Switching Displacement of oil or propane 2,372 1,380
Total 11,649 4,307
Income Eligible
Lost Opportunity Efficiency upgrade of assumed baseline heat pump 0 0
Energy Optimization Displacement of electric resistance space heat 658 42
Fuel Switching Displacement of oil or propane 2 1
Total 660 43
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MODERATE INCOME PARTICIPATION
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q2 2019 Q4 2019 Q2 2020
Moderate Income Participation
Moderate Income Applicants Applicants that resulted in Wx
Unique Home Energy Assessments (all res, electric and
gas)
Q2 2019 56,250
Q4 2019 55,541
Q2 2020 30,836
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
RESIDENTIAL & INCOME ELIGIBLE
TAKEAWAYS
►Residential savings have decreased significantly in Q2 this year as compared to Q1; the decrease in savings is proportionately lower when viewed YTD 2020 vs. 2019
►The decrease in residential electric savings in 2020 has been mitigated by a large increase in lighting savings
►An increase in gas HVAC savings in Q2 has made up for some of the reduction in gas envelope savings
►Heat pump results in 2020 vary by measure type and sector—Low Income Sector activity is down most dramatically
►Already low moderate income participation numbers are even lower in 2020 | 16
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL
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www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
KPI #4 PROPORTION OF LIGHTING
PROJECTS WITH CONTROLS
►Largest volume of projects go through Upstream, which delivers least amount of controls
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Pro
ject
s
Upstream Lighting Projects
Without Controls With Controls
Note: before Q3 2019, data was not reported by pathway by PAs
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
KPI #4 PROPORTION OF LIGHTING
PROJECTS WITH CONTROLS
►Custom retrofit and new construction deliver more controls, but for far fewer projects than Upstream
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
New Buildings & Major Renovations Lighting Projects
Without Controls With Controls
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Pro
ject
s
Existing Building Retrofit Lighting Projects
Without Controls With Controls
Note: before Q3 2019, data was not reported by pathway by PAs
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
KPI #5 CUSTOM HVAC SAVINGS
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PA
2020 Q2 YTD Custom HVAC
Savings (MWh)
2020 Plan Custom HVAC
Savings (MWh)
YTD % Achieved
CLC 764 7,932 10%
Eversource 44,500 507,791 9%
National Grid 12,148 177,314 7%
Unitil - 5,808 0%
Electric Gas
PA
2020 Q2 YTDCustom HVAC
Savings (Therms)
2020 PlanCustom HVAC
Savings (Therms)
YTD % Achieved
Berkshire 226,345 596,680 38%
CMA 1,134,487 20,472,219 6%
Eversource 782,836 25,620,702 3%
Liberty - 648,084 0%
National Grid 4,088,771 16,630,901 25%
Unitil - 558,952 0%
► Less Custom HVAC savings than planned for both electric and gas
► HVAC is most important area of savings in post-lighting world
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
KPI #6 SMALL BUSINESS
TURNKEY COMPREHENSIVENESS
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► 89% of electric savings delivered through the Small Business Turnkey
program during this planning cycle has come from lighting
− This program technically also offers HVAC, refrigeration and motors/drives measures
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
MW
h
Small Business Turnkey Electric Savings (MWh)
Statewide - Non Lighting
Statewide - Lighting
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KPI #6 SMALL BUSINESS
TURNKEY COMPREHENSIVENESS
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► 56% of gas savings delivered through the Small Business Turnkey program
during this planning cycle has come from aerators
− Gas side is more promising: opportunity for air sealing, pipe insulation, steam traps, etc.
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Ther
ms
Small Business Turnkey Gas Savings (Therms)
Statewide - Non Aerator
Statewide - Aerator
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
STREETLIGHTING LED
CONVERSIONS ►63% of streetlights converted to LED statewide
►Big opportunity for remaining lamps, but not without challenges
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Lamp Type
Company Owned Customer Owned
Number of Lamps % of Total Lamps Number of Lamps % of Total Lamps
High Pressure Sodium
48,305 58% 77,624 24%
Incandescent / Other
1,369 2% 4,151 1%
LED 17,670 21% 236,306 74%
Mercury Vapor / Metal Halide
16,135 19% 3,322 1%
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
C&I HEAT PUMP PROGRESS
TOWARDS TERM SHEET GOAL
►Roughly 10% achievement of term sheet goal for C&I heat pumps at 50% through the 3-year plan− Incomplete info on custom retrofit, new construction and
newly launched prescriptive EO offer (may be included in Q4 2020)
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System Type# of Units to Date
(2019 + Q1&2 2020)2019-2021 Term
Sheet Goal
Mini Split HP - Upstream 388
Central HP - Upstream 1,488
Fuel Switching - Retrofit 4
Total 1,880 17,980
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
C&I TAKEAWAYS
►Still low lighting controls adoption, especially for largest volume pathway (Upstream)
► Custom HVAC savings not delivering as planned− Gas doing marginally better than electric
►Small business program still dominated by lighting despite other measures being offered
►Streetlight LED conversion opportunities still out there for 2020/2021
►C&I far behind on heat pump goal committed to in term sheet− Possible under-reporting but unlikely enough to fill gap
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THANK YOU
Questions?
►June 17, 2020
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
APPENDIX
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www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
BENEFITS – PORTFOLIO WIDE
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0%
5%
10%
15%
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25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Total Portfolio Benefits - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio Residential Income Eligible Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
SPENDING – PORTFOLIO WIDE
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0%
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15%
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2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Total Portfolio Spending - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio Residential Income Eligible Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
LIFETIME SAVINGS – ELECTRIC
PROGRAMS
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Electric Portfolio Lifetime Savings - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio Residential Income Eligible Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
BENEFITS – ELECTRIC
PROGRAMS
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0%
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10%
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20%
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30%
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40%
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2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Electric Portfolio Benefits - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio Residential Income Eligible Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
SPENDING – ELECTRIC
PROGRAMS
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0%
5%
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15%
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25%
30%
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40%
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2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Electric Portfolio Spending - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio Residential Income Eligible Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
LIFETIME SAVINGS – GAS
PROGRAMS
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Gas Portfolio Lifetime Savings - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio Residential Income Eligible Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
BENEFITS – GAS PROGRAMS
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Gas Portfolio Benefits - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio Residential Income Eligible Commerical & Industrial
www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Presentation on Q2 2020 Report
SPENDING – GAS PROGRAMS
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2019 2020 2019 2020
Q1 Q2
Gas Portfolio Spending - % of Annual Plan
Portfolio Residential Income Eligible Commerical & Industrial