Construction Price Indices Monitoring Reportindustryinsight.co.za/reports/CPAP_April_2012.pdf ·...

Comments, inputs and

Release date: 3 May 2012

Executive Summary

As the PPI for most of the building and civil materials

continue to lack substantial upward momentum,

majority of the contract price adjustment indices also

increased at a slower pace in March 2012.

Construction price inflation is mitigated

increases in steel, copper and alumiunium

movements in these commodities are infl

the slow pace of recovery in the global economy.

Workgroup 180, the composit index for lump sum

domestic buildings rose by 5,7% y/y

which is slightly slower that the average for the past

six months (6,3%).

Workgroup 181 (commercial buildings)

6,1% y/y in March 2012 compared to 7,1%

for the past six months.

The outlook for construction prices has

since 2011 and it is expected that cons

may increase by between 6% and 7% during

Construction Price Indices Monitoring Report

Report Objective Contractors are frequently exposed to fluctuations in material prices and are at a financial risk when appropriate provision

is not made. It is for this reason that the Contract Price Adjustments Provision (CPAP) indices are compiled for the use by contractors, w

and agreed escalation formula to provide reasonable reimbursements for price fluctuation.

The purpose of this report is to provide our subscribers with a detailed analysis of what is driving the CPAP workgroups and hence their cost and how to

make appropriate provision for price adjustments in their contracts.

Page 1

and queries related to the indices? Contact Annerine Lamprec

building and civil materials

continue to lack substantial upward momentum,

contract price adjustment indices also

in March 2012.

mitigated by a slower

nd alumiunium. Price

are influenced by

very in the global economy.

the composit index for lump sum

y/y in March 2012

average for the past

(commercial buildings) increased by

y/y in March 2012 compared to 7,1% average

has deteriorated

it is expected that construction costs

during 2012

Key Construction Co

Indicators*

CPI..

PPI.

PPI: Building materials..

PPI: Civil materials..

Oil price ($)***.

Rand/$***..

* Year-on-Year percentage change

** Trend: M arch 2012 vs average for the last 6 months

*** Latest data: April 2012


April 2012

Contractors are frequently exposed to fluctuations in material prices and are at a financial risk when appropriate provision

It is for this reason that the Contract Price Adjustments Provision (CPAP) indices are compiled for the use by contractors, w

and agreed escalation formula to provide reasonable reimbursements for price fluctuation.

provide our subscribers with a detailed analysis of what is driving the CPAP workgroups and hence their cost and how to

make appropriate provision for price adjustments in their contracts.

recht [email protected]

Key Construction Cost Indicators

Mar'12 Trend**

CPI..6.0%

PPI.7.2%

PPI: Building materials..4.7%

PPI: Civil materials.. 5.0%

Oil price ($)***.120.92

Rand/$***..7.84

* Year-on-Year percentage change

** Trend: M arch 2012 vs average for the last 6 months


Contractors are frequently exposed to fluctuations in material prices and are at a financial risk when appropriate provision for escalation in material prices

It is for this reason that the Contract Price Adjustments Provision (CPAP) indices are compiled for the use by contractors, who require a simple

provide our subscribers with a detailed analysis of what is driving the CPAP workgroups and hence their cost and how to


1. General Economic Pricing Overview

1.1 Inflation Trends

During March 2012, consumer inflation

the second consecutive month to 6,0%

moderation in food price inflation. It should however

be noted that the month on month incr

2012 was 1,1% as March is generally a high increase

month with increases in education, rentals as well as

the large increase in the price of petrol

adjustment of the fuel levy as per the 2012/13 budget

These increases is expected to become evident in

coming months and therefore, the past two months

moderation in the CPI should probably not be seen as

the turning point. It is still expected that CPI will peak

at around 6,6%.

Thereare however a lot of uncertainties related to this

outcome. Upside risks to the inflation rate include the

volatility of the oil price give tension in the Middle East

and sanctions against Iran. Rising admisit

which are increasing without regard for the inflation

target also remain a concern, recent lowering of the

proposed e-toll tariff and electricity tariff increases

were however encouraging. The other wild card when

it comes to the inflation outlook remains the Rand

exchange rate.

Important to the construction industry is not so much the

changes in the underlying components of consumer

prices, but rather the trend in the overall consumer

price inflation and its impact on labour cost and interest

rates which have a direct impact on the construction

industry.

Inflation at producers levelpeaked at 10,6%in October

2011 has slowed for the fifth month in a row to 7,2%

Page 2


General Economic Pricing Overview

(CPI)slowed for

to 6,0%, mainly due a

It should however

be noted that the month on month increase in March

rally a high increase

month with increases in education, rentals as well as

the large increase in the price of petrol following the

levy as per the 2012/13 budget.

is expected to become evident in

coming months and therefore, the past two months

moderation in the CPI should probably not be seen as

that CPI will peak

Thereare however a lot of uncertainties related to this

outcome. Upside risks to the inflation rate include the

volatility of the oil price give tension in the Middle East

and sanctions against Iran. Rising admisitrative prices

ithout regard for the inflation

target also remain a concern, recent lowering of the

lectricity tariff increases

however encouraging. The other wild card when

to the inflation outlook remains the Rand

Important to the construction industry is not so much the

changes in the underlying components of consumer

prices, but rather the trend in the overall consumer

price inflation and its impact on labour cost and interest

n the construction

peaked at 10,6%in October

2011 has slowed for the fifth month in a row to 7,2%

(March 2012).The upside risks of currency movements

and uncertainties regarding the oil price to inlfation

may also sart to affect

although a slowdown in producers price

particularly the mining and food

PPI at bay. Some analysts believe

to 5% before the end of 2012.

1.2 Currency trends

The Rand continue to trade in a relatively narrow band

during the past 6 months. Although it depreciate

around 3% (m/m) in April 2012

17,2% since April 2011. This is having a marked impact

on the price of imported goods

beconing increasingly expensive.

The outlook for the rand exchange rate remains highly

dependent on global risk appetite.

depreciate when there are risk perceptions in Europe,

as investors tend to seek so

these flows tend to reverse as risk perceptions improve.

The rand is expected to trade bewteen R7.80 and R8.30

for the remainder of the year, which may add additional

price pressure to the domestic economy.

1.3 The Oil Price

The price of oil continued its

trading around $124/barrel but softened somewhat in

April to an average of $120/barrel.

Analysts in the latest Reuters poll (April 2012) expects

the oil price to average $117.30

estimates in March 2012. T

the oil price recently are the sanctions against Iran

which pose an upside risk to the price but this is

countered by the pledge by Saudi Arabia to tame prices.

Some analysts however are of the opnion that this

move might tighten spare capacity driving them to a

even more bullish outlook.

Developments in China, the worlds top energy consumer,

and also in the EU will remain a key factor in oil prices in

the longer term.

Regardless of a softer oil price in April, t

increased by 28c in the beginning of Ma

following a increase of 71c In April as the Rand

deprecaited some 3% against the Dolla

total increase in the price of petrol since the beginning

of the year to R1,56. At least for now, e

hold. Higher transport costs

everything else and is a severe upside risk to the

inflation outlook.


The upside risks of currency movements

and uncertainties regarding the oil price to inlfation

art to affect prices at producers level

a slowdown in producers price increases in

particularly the mining and food sectors are keeping the

Some analysts believe that the PPI may slow

5% before the end of 2012.

The Rand continue to trade in a relatively narrow band

during the past 6 months. Although it depreciated by

around 3% (m/m) in April 2012, it has depreciated by

. This is having a marked impact

on the price of imported goodsas imported goods are

beconing increasingly expensive.

The outlook for the rand exchange rate remains highly

dependent on global risk appetite. The rand tends to

depreciate when there are risk perceptions in Europe,

as investors tend to seek so-called safe havens. But

these flows tend to reverse as risk perceptions improve.

The rand is expected to trade bewteen R7.80 and R8.30

for the remainder of the year, which may add additional

price pressure to the domestic economy.

continued its upward spiral In March,

$124/barrel but softened somewhat in

$120/barrel.

Analysts in the latest Reuters poll (April 2012) expects

the oil price to average $117.30 in 2012. This is up from

estimates in March 2012. The main varibles influencing

the oil price recently are the sanctions against Iran

which pose an upside risk to the price but this is

countered by the pledge by Saudi Arabia to tame prices.

ver are of the opnion that this

ten spare capacity driving them to a

Developments in China, the worlds top energy consumer,

and also in the EU will remain a key factor in oil prices in

Regardless of a softer oil price in April, the price of petrol

in the beginning of May 2012,

following a increase of 71c In April as the Rand

aited some 3% against the Dollar. This brings to

total increase in the price of petrol since the beginning

. At least for now, e-tolling is on a

Higher transport costs affects the prices of almost

everything else and is a severe upside risk to the


1.4 Electricity

ESKOMs weekly adequacy reports show a fall in

electricity demand but the utility warned evening peak

demand is increasing. The lower demand can be

ascribed to among other factors, Eskoms electricity

buyback programme under which it buys power back

from some of its biggest industrial customers to create

space for necessary plant maintenance.Several

companies, including steel and vanadium producer

Evraz Highveld and International Ferro Metals, have

signed power buyback deals with Eskom.

have been able to buy back 800MW (Source: Business

Day, 26 April 2012) This programme is however having

a far-reaching economic impact as lower production of

steel and ferrochrome is affecting the price of two

important commodities, steel and stainless steel, b

having a severe impact on construction costs.

It is however, not only Eskoms buy-back

which causes the lower demand. The past four years

more than 80% tariff hikes are surely starting to impact

domestic consumption.

1.5 International Commodity Price Movements

World commodity markets energy products, base and

precious metals as well as agriculture -

traded in a narrow range in recent weeks with no fresh

trigger to provide a decisive direction. Base metals

prices too have been trading in a tight range simply

because global growth concerns have not disappeared

yet, although positive signals are emerging.

Copper rose to its highest level in nearly a month on

Monday as falling stockpiles signaled improving

demand conditions.Copper's widespread use in

construction and manufacturing makes its price

vulnerable to pressure from weak economic data, such

Page 3


ESKOMs weekly adequacy reports show a fall in

electricity demand but the utility warned evening peak

demand is increasing. The lower demand can be

among other factors, Eskoms electricity

buyback programme under which it buys power back

ome of its biggest industrial customers to create

space for necessary plant maintenance.Several

companies, including steel and vanadium producer

Evraz Highveld and International Ferro Metals, have

signed power buyback deals with Eskom. So far Eskom

een able to buy back 800MW (Source: Business

Day, 26 April 2012) This programme is however having

reaching economic impact as lower production of

is affecting the price of two

important commodities, steel and stainless steel, both

having a severe impact on construction costs.

back programme

the lower demand. The past four years

surely starting to impact

Price Movements

energy products, base and

- have generally

traded in a narrow range in recent weeks with no fresh

trigger to provide a decisive direction. Base metals

ading in a tight range simply

because global growth concerns have not disappeared

yet, although positive signals are emerging.

Copper rose to its highest level in nearly a month on

Monday as falling stockpiles signaled improving

widespread use in

construction and manufacturing makes its price

vulnerable to pressure from weak economic data, such

as the recent lower than expected UD GDP growth, as it

signals lower demand for the metal.But instead of

heading lower, copper prices rall

data, as investors hoped the bad report would pressure

Fed Chairman Bernanke into launching more monetary

stimulus in the months ahead.

Aluminium prices remain under threat of the lack of

global economic recovery. Since 2011 a number

aluminium smelter world wide were closed

prices weighed in on their profitability.

worlds largest alumiunium producer said that although

there might by a slight over supply globally

providing that there is no global downturn, it

isexpectsed that the market could start to tighten in

2013. (Reuters.com, 1 May 2012)

On balance more of the same is expected, the

uncertainties in Europe may have calmed down for

now, the US is seen as a positive factor for the metals,

while the slowdown in China is likely to be a drag on

sentiment for a while. All in all, this suggests more

sideways range trading until there are further

developments.http://www.fa


as the recent lower than expected UD GDP growth, as it

signals lower demand for the metal.But instead of

heading lower, copper prices rallied on the U.S. growth

data, as investors hoped the bad report would pressure

Fed Chairman Bernanke into launching more monetary

stimulus in the months ahead.

Aluminium prices remain under threat of the lack of

global economic recovery. Since 2011 a number of

aluminium smelter world wide were closed as low

prices weighed in on their profitability. Rio Tinto, the

worlds largest alumiunium producer said that although

y a slight over supply globally and

providing that there is no global downturn, it

that the market could start to tighten in

2013. (Reuters.com, 1 May 2012)

On balance more of the same is expected, the

uncertainties in Europe may have calmed down for

positive factor for the metals,

while the slowdown in China is likely to be a drag on

sentiment for a while. All in all, this suggests more

sideways range trading until there are further

http://www.fastmarkets.com


2. Domestic Construction Pricing

Overview

Materials with a m-o-m price increase/decrease in March 2012

Description

Carpeting, woven needle punch

Copper, 7,9mm rod

Fully galvanised wire 2,00 mm

Roof tiles, concrete

Strand

Level locks

Machinery Electrical

Concrete pipes

Paints, enamel

Hinges

Machinery SEIFSA

The composite indices for building and civil materials,

published by Statistics SA, are continuing their upward

momentum. The latest data for March

further strengthening in the price of civil engineering

materials, which accelerated from 4,2% (y/y) in January

2012to 5% in both February and March 2012. Civil

material prices are driven by higher steel and butimen

prices. The annual percentage change of these

materials has however started to slow in March 2012.

The annual percentage change in the composite index

for building materials slowed from 5,1

to4,7% in March. The slower rate of increase may be

attributed to the slower annual rate of increase

price of steel, which will continue to have a postive

impact on input costs, as steel prices are edging lower.

Page 4


Construction Pricing

price increase/decrease in March

Mar-12 (m/m)

8.5%

4.5%

3.8%

3.6%

3.2%

2.5%

1.8%

1.5%

1.5%

0.8%

0.7%

or building and civil materials,

continuing their upward

2012, shows a

civil engineering

materials, which accelerated from 4,2% (y/y) in January

2012to 5% in both February and March 2012. Civil

steel and butimen

prices. The annual percentage change of these

slow in March 2012.

composite index

1% In February

The slower rate of increase may be

attributed to the slower annual rate of increase in the

price of steel, which will continue to have a postive

impact on input costs, as steel prices are edging lower.

3. Major Construction Cost D

3.1 Labour cost

Labour cost is an important component of the cost of

construction and carry a significant

indices (between 30% and 50

indicator to measure changes in

though it may not be the most

estimation, as a genearl cost of living index bears very

little reflection of actual construction labour costs.

figure 6 (top right), three different indices of labour

cost, i.e. CPI, SEIFSA labour Index and the SAFC

labour index, (and the Electrical Contractors Index) are

compared. A composite index of all of these indices,

may possibly give a more accurate reflection of real

labour cost escalation in the construction industry.

From this analysis it is clear, that the CPI constantly

underperforms other, more industry specific, labour

indicators. This implies that the CPAP is const

undercounting the impact of higher labour costs,

resulting in financial loss to the compnay (and a

financial gain to the client, mostly government).

Labour rate indicators March 2012

3.2 Transport cost

Transport cost is becoming an increasingly important

variable to construction cost

price of materials but also the operating cost of

constrcution companies. Since the beginning of 2012

the price of petrol rose by R1,61

R12,22 in May 2012 (Gauteng, 95 Unleaded)

price of diesel by 50c per liter (4,7%)

Description 2011

Labour CPI 4.3%

Labour SEIFSA 7.9%

Labour SAFSEC 13.1%

1


ajor Construction Cost Drivers

Labour cost is an important component of the cost of

construction and carry a significant weight in most CPAP

(between 30% and 50%).The CPI is used as an

to measure changes in labour costseven

not be the most accurate method of

estimation, as a genearl cost of living index bears very

construction labour costs. In

, three different indices of labour

SEIFSA labour Index and the SAFCEC

labour index, (and the Electrical Contractors Index) are

compared. A composite index of all of these indices,

ibly give a more accurate reflection of real

labour cost escalation in the construction industry.

From this analysis it is clear, that the CPI constantly

underperforms other, more industry specific, labour

indicators. This implies that the CPAP is constantly

undercounting the impact of higher labour costs,

resulting in financial loss to the compnay (and a

financial gain to the client, mostly government).

Labour rate indicators March 2012

Transport cost is becoming an increasingly important

variable to construction cost as it not only effects the

price of materials but also the operating cost of

. Since the beginning of 2012

the price of petrol rose by R1,61per liter (14,6%) to

R12,22 in May 2012 (Gauteng, 95 Unleaded) and the

price of diesel by 50c per liter (4,7%) to R10.98.

2011 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

4.3% 6.3% 6.1% 6.0%

7.9% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

13.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1%

2


With the oil price being relatively unpredictable with

ample upside risk this is an cost element wh

easily cause construction cost to rise unpreditably

near future.

Another factor to consider is the tolling of major roads.

The Gauteng e-tolling project was put on hold by a High

Court interdict, but this does not mean it is off the table

completely and the posibility of e-tolling in

economic centres of the country cannot be ruled out.

At least for now it is not a threat.

Figure 7 below illustrates the escalation in

per kilometer. This index is calculated using the AA

(Automobile Association of SA) cost per

light commercial bakkie. It takes into account the value

of the vehicle for depreciation (fixed cost) purposes, the

capacity and kilometeres driven for the purpose of of

calculating variable cost indcluding maintemance and

fuel consumption.

3.3 Steel

The last price increase in the SEIFSAs merchant steel

price index (Galvanised steel) of 4,7% (m/m) was in

October 2011. According to this index the price of steel

has increased by 9,1% y/y compard to

Price decreases of between 3% and 3,5% were reported

by all thee main steel producers, in the price of mainly

reinforcing steel, with effect 1 May 2012. This will only

be reflected in the June PPI and CPAP release.

Domestic steel prices in South Africa a

dictated by ArcelorMittal,the price leaders in the

country. As only imports pose a threat to the domestic

steel maker, an import parity price policy is followed

although transport cost and electricity tariff have a

severe impact on the price of steel.

3.4 Cement

Page 5


With the oil price being relatively unpredictable with

element which can

unpreditably in the

is the tolling of major roads.

s put on hold by a High

Court interdict, but this does not mean it is off the table

tolling in other major

economic centres of the country cannot be ruled out.

ure 7 below illustrates the escalation in transport cost

This index is calculated using the AA

kilometer for a

light commercial bakkie. It takes into account the value

of the vehicle for depreciation (fixed cost) purposes, the

capacity and kilometeres driven for the purpose of of

calculating variable cost indcluding maintemance and

SEIFSAs merchant steel

of 4,7% (m/m) was in

According to this index the price of steel

y/y compard to March 2011.

Price decreases of between 3% and 3,5% were reported

by all thee main steel producers, in the price of mainly

reinforcing steel, with effect 1 May 2012. This will only

be reflected in the June PPI and CPAP release.

Domestic steel prices in South Africa are generally

he price leaders in the

pose a threat to the domestic

arity price policy is followed

although transport cost and electricity tariff have a

The PPI for cement (at retail

8,4% (y/y) in March 2012, following a

February 2012. Thus far there has only been two

increases (m/m) in the cement price during the past 12

months, July 2011 (6,6

(3,9%).(according to PPI data

Price is playing an increasingly important role in the

cement industry. All cement producers has increased

their prices in January and February 2012 by between

5% and 6%., although some product is also supplied to

retailers such as Builders Warehouse as a cheaper rate.

It is expected that the new cement producer, Sephaku,

will start production in September 2013.

3.5 Copper

SEIFSAs metal price index for Copper per metric ton

9% (y/y) lower in March 2012

softened significantly since November 2011 after rising

by 38,2% on average in 2010 and 18,1% in 2011. This

trend follows that of the international copper price, and

is dependent on the recovery of economic a

3.6 Bitumen

The price of bitumen has recently spiralled almost out of

control, largely be attributed to two factors. Firstly, as

butimen is a by-product of the refinery pricess of crude

oil, it is directly affected by the oil price. Secondly , and

most importantly in the domestic market is the recent

shortages of butimen due to planned and unplanned

plant maintenance at refineries as these are getting

older. This has led to the import of product to meet

local demand. During May 2012, planned mainten

on the Single Bouy Mooring in the Port of Durban will

once again impact the production of butimen. For this

reason in the short term it is not expected that we will

se much relief in the price of butimen

3.7 Civil Engineering Plant

The cost of plant, as per the Civil Engineering plant index,

published by Stats SA, increased by 0,5%

2012, following a 1,5% increase in February 2012

Changes in this index remain

heavy machinery struggle to regain momentum after

the recession. There may also be a relationship

between price movement for plant and the Rand

exchange rate (See Figure 8), as plant is mostly

imported, so are the parts and access

maintenance.


retail level) increased by a slower

2012, following a 9,6% increase in

Thus far there has only been two

increases (m/m) in the cement price during the past 12

011 (6,6%) and February 2012

according to PPI data published by Statistics SA)

Price is playing an increasingly important role in the

cement industry. All cement producers has increased

their prices in January and February 2012 by between

ough some product is also supplied to

retailers such as Builders Warehouse as a cheaper rate.

It is expected that the new cement producer, Sephaku,

will start production in September 2013.

metal price index for Copper per metric tonwas

in March 2012. The price of copper

softened significantly since November 2011 after rising

by 38,2% on average in 2010 and 18,1% in 2011. This

trend follows that of the international copper price, and

is dependent on the recovery of economic activity.

n has recently spiralled almost out of

largely be attributed to two factors. Firstly, as

product of the refinery pricess of crude

oil, it is directly affected by the oil price. Secondly , and

st importantly in the domestic market is the recent

shortages of butimen due to planned and unplanned

plant maintenance at refineries as these are getting

older. This has led to the import of product to meet

local demand. During May 2012, planned maintenance

on the Single Bouy Mooring in the Port of Durban will

once again impact the production of butimen. For this

reason in the short term it is not expected that we will

se much relief in the price of butimen

Civil Engineering Plant

per the Civil Engineering plant index,

published by Stats SA, increased by 0,5% (y/y) in March

2012, following a 1,5% increase in February 2012.

Changes in this index remain subdued as demand for

heavy machinery struggle to regain momentum after

may also be a relationship

between price movement for plant and the Rand/$

exchange rate (See Figure 8), as plant is mostly

imported, so are the parts and accessories for


4. Pricing Outlook 2012

4.1 Inflation and Construction Cost O

The outlook for input cost inflation deteriorated further

as 2012 kicked off. A volatile oil price, driven by

speculative appetite and EU sanctions against Iran is

expected to ultimately feed into the construction

industry via higher transport and logistics costs. Closer

to home construction costs could also become under

pressure from higher electricity cost. Globally,

commodity prices have been lacking signifi

momentum due to Chinas recent downward

adjustment of its economic growth outlook.

contributing to softer price increases in some materials.

Following an average increase of just above 3% for

2011, we expect average prices to increase

7% and 10% in 2012. This is somewhat lower than in

our March report as the latest data again confirmed

slower price growth.

Page 6


Inflation and Construction Cost Outlook

The outlook for input cost inflation deteriorated further

as 2012 kicked off. A volatile oil price, driven by

speculative appetite and EU sanctions against Iran is

ected to ultimately feed into the construction

industry via higher transport and logistics costs. Closer

ould also become under

Globally, however

commodity prices have been lacking significant upward

momentum due to Chinas recent downward

adjustment of its economic growth outlook. This is

contributing to softer price increases in some materials.

Following an average increase of just above 3% for

2011, we expect average prices to increase by between

This is somewhat lower than in

our March report as the latest data again confirmed

lation & Construction Cost O

Year 08 09

CPI (Headline) 11.5% 7.2%

Diesel 49.8% -30.8%

Civil Engineeing Plant

12.8% 12.2%

Building Materials

(Stats SA)

13.4% 5.3%

Civil Materials

(Stats SA) 15.2% 4.5%

Composite Input Cost Civil Index*

18.8% 0.2%

Composite Input Cost Building Index

18.0% -0.7%

* Weighted indices for labour(21%), material (45%),

plant(25%) and fuel (9%)

4.2 Threats

1) Oil price can still go in any direction

2) Butimen price remains under threat of

shortages.


Construction Cost Outlook (Ave. y/y % chng)

09 10 11 12

7.2% 4.3% 5.0% 6.2%

30.8% -6.8% 5.1% 10.0%

12.2% -1.3% 0.2% 1.9%

5.3% 1.0% 3.9% 6.5%

4.5% 0.8% 2.4% 7.8%

0.2% 0.1% 2.8% 6.0%

0.7% 1.0% 4.3% 6.6%

* Weighted indices for labour(21%), material (45%),

can still go in any direction.

remains under threat of

3

Comments, inputs and queries related to the indices? Contact Annerine Lamprecht [email protected]

5. PPI on Selected Materials (P0142.1:

Table 12)

Table 3 shows materials that reported above CPI inflation

(>6%) increases during the last 6 months leading up to

March 2012.

Materials withAbove Inflation Increases

Description 11 12 YTD 12 Mar

CPI 5.0% 6.1% 6.0%

Strand 35.5% 36.0% 26.4%

Reinforcing Steel 16.4% 29.8% 23.5%

Butimen 27.1% 34.9% 23.2%

Meranti, imported 11.9% 17.0% 18.6%

Paints, enamel 6.8% 12.6% 15.2%

Fully galvanised wire 2,00 mm 15.1% 19.8% 13.8%

Roof sheets, fibre cement 5.3% 10.9% 12.4%

Sand 3.0% 7.0% 10.6%

Flush doors 4.1% 8.2% 9.7%

Merchants Galvanised Steel

Index 10.8% 14.5% 9.0%

Steel Price Index, light

sections 10.8% 18.6% 8.5%

Carpeting, woven needle

punch 4.5% 3.9% 8.5%

Cement, retail 7.1% 7.9% 8.4%

Domestic Steel, medium

sections 10.7% 18.5% 8.2%

Sheet, galvanised 2.0% 10.2% 7.8%

Drop in ceiling tiles - masonite 4.6% 7.8% 7.8%

Bricks - face 6.6% 8.1% 7.4%

Hinges 3.6% 8.0% 7.3%

Wash Hand Basin 7.3% 6.0% 7.2%

Concrete pipes -0.5% 3.8% 6.8%

There are clearly two variables playing the most

significant role in current price escalations relating to the

construction industry, steel prices and the oil price. These

variables are discussed earlier in this report.

Meranti is imported from Malaysia and Indonesia which

makes its price directly linked to the R/Dollar exchange

rate and the price of crude oil (for transportation

purposes. Price fluctuations are common.

The following indices showed no movement during the

twelve months to March 2012 and should be investigated

for accuracy of data.

Price Indices That Reflected No Change


Steel, small sections 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Glazed ceramic tiles, white 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Price Indices that Reflected Negative Change


Metal prics, copper 18.1% -4.2% -9.1%

Joint sealants -0.9% -5.4% -5.4%

Steel tubes, pipes and

fittings 8.6% -0.6% -5.4%

Copper piping -3.6% -4.9% -4.9%

Self adhesives 5.2% 1.5% -1.2%

Steel tubes, pipes and

fittings 8.6% 0.9% -1.0%

Angles mild steel 22.2% 3.6% -0.8%

Copper, 7,9mm rod 16.6% -0.7% -0.2%

4

5

6


6. Summary Tables: Materials

Table Summary of Price Indices for Key Materials: March 2012


PPI ON SELECTED MATERIALS (TABLE 12)

Aggregated crushed stone 3.9% 4.3% 5.1%

Aluminium level furniture 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%

Aluminium sheeting, profiled distributor level 5.4% 2.9% 1.2%

Angles mild steel 22.2% 3.6% -0.8%

Bricks - face 6.6% 8.1% 7.4%

Bricks - stock 4.6% 6.3% 5.4%

Building boards 5.6% 0.9% 1.0%

Butimen 27.1% 34.9% 23.2%

Butimen & Acrylic Emulsion 2.7% 6.0% 6.0%

Butimen sheeting, modified 0.9% 3.3% 3.4%

Carpeting, woven needle punch 4.5% 3.9% 8.5%

Cement, retail 7.1% 7.9% 8.4%

Civil Engineering Plant 0.2% 1.5% 0.5%

Concrete pipes -0.5% 3.8% 6.8%

Copper piping -3.6% -4.9% -4.9%

Cylinder lock set 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%

Diesel oil- retail 5.1% 6.6% 0.9%

Drop in ceiling tiles - gypsum 6.7% 5.2% 3.5%

Drop in ceiling tiles - masonite 4.6% 7.8% 7.8%

Electrical contracting materials 2.8% 2.3% 1.9%

Extruded aluminium - distributor level 1.0% 5.8% 5.8%

Flush doors 4.1% 8.2% 9.7%

Glass for building industry, cut to size 0.9% 0.6% 0.7%

Glazed ceramic tiles, white 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Gypsum boards 7.0% 6.7% 5.1%

Hinges 3.6% 8.0% 7.3%

Joint sealants -0.9% -5.4% -5.4%

Level locks 1.8% 0.7% 2.5%

Meranti, imported 11.9% 17.0% 18.6%

Natural stone, cut and sawn 0.7% 3.9% 3.2%

7


Paints, cementitious 7.0% 6.7% 5.7%

Paints, enamel 6.8% 12.6% 15.2%

PVC Pipes 6.2% 2.7% 0.0%

Reinforcing Steel 16.4% 29.8% 23.5%

Roof sheets, fibre cement 5.3% 10.9% 12.4%

Roof tiles, concrete 1.9% 0.9% 3.5%

SA Pine, kiln dried 1.9% 2.8% 2.8%

Sand 3.0% 7.0% 10.6%

Self adhesives 5.2% 1.5% -1.2%

Sheet, galvanised 2.0% 10.2% 7.8%

Stainless steel products flat rolled 13.2% 6.1% 5.5%

Steel tubes, pipes and fittings 8.6% -0.6% -5.4%

Steel, small sections 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Structural steel products 14.5% 2.8% 0.9%

Tile adhesive 7.5% 4.6% 3.4%

Vinyl tiles flooring 8.0% 6.0% 6.0%

Vynil sheeting flooring 5.3% 0.8% 0.0%

Wash Hand Basin 7.3% 6.0% 7.2%

Water closet system (WC) 7.2% 3.3% 3.3%

SEIFSA

Copper, 7,9mm rod 16.6% -0.7% -0.2%

Domestic Steel, medium sections 10.7% 18.5% 8.2%

Fully galvanised wire 2,00 mm 15.1% 19.8% 13.8%

Machinery - Electrical 1.7% 0.4% 2.5%

Machinery - SEIFSA 1.6% 3.2% 3.6%

Merchants Galvanised Steel Index 10.8% 14.5% 9.0%

Metal prics, copper 18.1% -4.2% -9.1%

Steel Price Index, light sections 10.8% 18.6% 8.5%

Steel tubes, pipes and fittings 8.6% 0.9% -1.0%

Strand 35.5% 36.0% 26.4%


7. Contract Price Adjustment Provisions

Statistics SA publishes the Contract Price Adjustment

Provision Statistical relase P1051. This

used by contractors to adjustment monthly / interim

payment certificates for escelation.

Industry Insight monitors the CPAP indices

the end user, to minimise financial losses due to

incorrect price adjustments. By subscribing to this

service, you will receive regular monthly re

current and expected price trends in the industry,

highlighting trends in key cost drivers, commodity prices,

global impact on domestic prices, full review of all the

CPAP indices and an outlook for prices in the next 12

months, one week after the release of the CPAP.

also offering a full set of the CPAP indices charts

on the right), outlining the various price movements of

the sub-indices affecting the movement in the work

groups. This will be updated on a monthly basis and

distributed together with an excel spread sheet of the

workgroup indices. We will also assist you with any

queries or complaints and lobby on your behalf with the

relevant parties to ensure the indices are reflective of

market price adjustments.

Ave. Price Indices and % Change 2005 March

180

Lump Sum Index: Domestic Buildings

Lump Sum ICommercial Buildings

2007 323.0 10.35% 326.1

2008 369.2 14.25% 377.5

2009 374.9 1.73% 380.0

2010 390.2 4.11% 393.3

2011 410.9 5.29% 416.4

Jul-11 413.4 5.57% 419.2

Aug-11 414.2 5.93% 420.7

Sep-11 415.9 6.21% 422.6

Oct-11 417.3 6.32% 424.3

Nov-11 419.2 6.53% 427.0

Dec-11 420.7 6.59% 428.0

Jan-12 422.9 6.34% 429.3

Feb-12 427.3 6.48% 433.7

Mar-12 429.5 5.66% 435.7

Page 10


Contract Price Adjustment Provisions

Statistics SA publishes the Contract Price Adjustment

Provision Statistical relase P1051. This information is

used by contractors to adjustment monthly / interim

CPAP indices on behalf of

the end user, to minimise financial losses due to

By subscribing to this

service, you will receive regular monthly reviews of

current and expected price trends in the industry,

highlighting trends in key cost drivers, commodity prices,

global impact on domestic prices, full review of all the

CPAP indices and an outlook for prices in the next 12

release of the CPAP. We are

also offering a full set of the CPAP indices charts(example

outlining the various price movements of

indices affecting the movement in the work

groups. This will be updated on a monthly basis and

ted together with an excel spread sheet of the

We will also assist you with any

queries or complaints and lobby on your behalf with the

relevant parties to ensure the indices are reflective of

March 2012 181

Lump Sum Index: Commercial Buildings

326.1 10.01%

377.5 15.69%

380.0 0.95%

393.3 3.51%

416.4 5.86%

419.2 6.02%

420.7 6.72%

422.6 7.12%

424.3 7.23%

427.0 7.69%

428.0 7.67%

429.3 7.19%

433.7 6.95%

435.7 6.06%

8

Added Value to Construction Price Monitor Subscribers

Accompanying the report is an Excel workbook that

Visualisations of all 40 work groups on sub

Providing the weights of different materials making up a specific

work group (unique feature of this report).

Showing the price changes of materials over time.

Providing detailed, historic account of indices with highlighed

changes.


Construction Price Monitor Subscribers

Accompanying the report is an Excel workbook that features:

Visualisations of all 40 work groups on sub-material level

Providing the weights of different materials making up a specific

work group (unique feature of this report).

Showing the price changes of materials over time.

oric account of indices with highlighed


CPAP Price Indices Price Movement (Source: P0151, Statistics SA)

Workgroup Description Average

last 12 months

Mar-12 (y/y)

Mar-12 (m/m)

Price Trend

Comments/ Queries/ Investigation

102 Alterations 5.6% 6.0% 1.1%

104 Earthworks 3.3% 3.3% 0.3%

106 Piling 5.5% 6.1% 0.1%

110 Concrete (excluding Formwork) 6.2% 7.3% 0.2%

111 Formwork 5.9% 4.1% 0.7%

112 Precast Concrete 8.9% 7.9% 0.4%

113 Post Tensioning 26.2% 19.9% 0.2% Under investigation. Problems with strand and anchor index

114 Reinforcement 17.8% 18.8% 0.2%

116 Brick and Blockwork 5.8% 6.1% 0.4%

118 Masonry 4.6% 5.0% 0.7%

120 Waterproofing 2.2% 4.0% 0.2%

122 Non-Metal Roofing 4.1% 7.3% 1.7%

124 Metal Roofing (Steel) 11.4% 8.4% 0.2%

125 Metal Roofing (Aluminium) 5.3% 1.9% 0.2%

126 Carpentry And Joinery 5.9% 6.9% 0.5%

129 Suspended Non-Metal Ceilings 6.6% 5.2% 0.3%

130 Resilient Floor And Wall Coverings 5.1% 5.1% 2.2% Large increase in the PPI of woven needle punch carpets

132 Ironmongery 3.5% 3.9% 1.2%

134 Structural Steelwork In Buildings 7.8% 3.8% 0.6%

136 Metal Work 6.5% 3.4% 0.4% PPI: Small steel sections- No movement since Feb 2011.

138 Partitioning Systems 6.2% 5.8% 0.4%

140 Aluminium Work 4.8% 2.2% 0.5%

141 Stainless Steel Work 8.6% 5.7% 0.5%

142 In Situ Finishes 5.9% 6.7% 0.8%

144 Tiling 2.8% 2.7% 0.4%

Under investigation. No movement in PPI: Glazed ceramic tiles since September 2008.

146 Drainage 5.1% 4.6% 0.8%

148 Plumbing 3.0% 2.6% 0.4%

149 Aluminium Shop Fronts & Pre-glazed Windows

3.7% 2.7% 0.5%

150 Glazing 1.6% 1.3% 0.2%

152 Painting 6.4% 7.5% 0.9%

9


154 Roadwork 12.0% 10.0% -0.1%

160 Electrical Installations 8.3% 5.6% 0.2% Under investigation re compostion of work group

162 Eletrical Reticulation 9.7% 5.3% 0.2% Under investigation re compostion of work group

170 Mechanical Services 5.7% 5.6% -0.3%

171 Ductwork Installations 11.1% 8.1% 0.0%

172 Refrigeration Installations 9.3% -2.3% 0.0% Under investigation

173 Steel Water Pipe Installations 8.3% 4.8% -0.8%

190 Preliminaries 4.2% 3.8% 0.4%

200 Supply Index* 18.8% 19.9% 0.0% NOT A WORKGROUP

INDEX

180 Lump Sum Domestic Buildings 5.8% 5.7% 0.5%

181 Commercial / Industrial Buildings 6.4% 6.1% 0.5%

*WG 200 is not a CPAP published workgroup but is included for the purpose of general information.


CPAP Index Feb-99 = 100 (Source: P0151, Statistics SA)

102 104 106 110 111 112 113 114 116 118

Mar-11 344.6 363.1 379.2 501.3 396.4 440.7 197.7 515.5 460.6 315.0

Apr-11 345.5 363.7 381.1 501.6 396.7 442.5 197.8 527.9 461.4 315.5

May-11 347.3 364.7 381.0 498.0 398.3 442.4 213.2 528.6 463.4 317.8

Jun-11 348.8 366.7 384.0 498.5 397.3 443.7 213.4 541.6 469.2 318.8

Jul-11 351.8 368.8 388.3 515.4 402.0 451.0 217.8 546.0 471.1 320.5

Aug-11 352.4 369.2 388.6 515.6 401.3 450.7 217.8 546.3 469.0 321.2

Sep-11 353.8 369.8 390.6 512.5 405.4 455.2 218.0 568.5 469.8 324.0

Oct-11 355.6 369.4 391.6 513.6 406.6 460.0 230.5 582.8 471.5 324.4

Nov-11 356.5 370.0 395.8 517.0 407.0 466.8 243.7 609.2 472.3 325.5

Dec-11 357.1 371.0 396.5 517.2 407.4 467.1 243.7 609.4 477.7 325.5

Jan-12 359.2 372.3 397.4 518.0 408.1 467.5 244.0 610.2 483.6 326.5

Feb-12 361.3 374.2 401.9 536.6 410.0 473.6 236.6 611.1 486.9 328.2

Mar-12 349.3 366.1 385.1 506.9 400.0 447.9 212.6 545.9 466.3 319.1

120 122 124 125 126 129 130 132 134 136

Mar-11 385.2 506.0 468.2 299.1 349.1 377.8 427.7 337.2 512.2 414.8

Apr-11 386.8 508.9 479.3 299.3 349.2 378.1 428.0 341.0 512.9 415.1

May-11 387.0 509.3 479.8 299.5 350.6 378.6 428.5 341.4 514.5 415.9

Jun-11 387.2 510.7 480.3 299.7 351.0 378.2 428.9 341.8 511.1 414.4

Jul-11 387.7 523.3 473.5 300.0 353.3 379.0 431.7 342.5 522.1 419.4

Aug-11 387.7 513.8 485.7 300.1 361.0 390.9 431.9 342.7 519.1 418.1

Sep-11 388.0 515.8 486.1 298.4 364.7 391.3 432.3 344.5 522.2 419.5

Oct-11 388.2 516.2 486.6 298.7 365.5 392.6 430.9 345.0 523.7 422.5

Nov-11 399.0 516.0 505.1 298.8 368.0 393.8 431.2 345.4 524.3 425.3

Dec-11 399.1 515.4 505.3 298.8 367.9 394.0 431.4 345.7 524.8 425.5

Jan-12 399.4 519.8 505.9 299.1 366.8 396.0 432.0 345.9 526.6 426.4

Feb-12 399.8 533.9 506.5 304.3 371.4 396.5 440.0 346.0 528.4 427.3

Mar-12 388.7 511.8 477.7 297.7 356.2 382.7 428.5 341.4 515.8 416.4

138 140 141 142 144 146 148 149 150 152

Mar-11 403.2 397.3 343.7 398.6 372.2 330.2 358.5 289.4 351.9 391.4

Apr-11 403.9 397.7 344.1 399.3 373.9 330.8 358.9 290.4 354.2 392.2

May-11 404.6 398.7 354.3 399.2 374.7 332.0 351.4 291.1 354.4 396.3

Jun-11 405.3 399.5 355.1 400.4 375.3 333.2 357.1 291.6 354.6 396.2

Jul-11 406.5 401.1 356.6 408.5 376.6 334.6 358.3 292.8 355.0 400.2

Aug-11 415.7 399.0 356.9 409.0 376.8 335.0 361.4 292.3 355.0 401.6

Sep-11 416.3 399.8 357.6 409.8 377.5 336.0 362.0 292.8 355.2 406.9

Oct-11 418.3 400.7 358.5 411.5 378.2 337.4 362.7 295.5 361.7 408.2

Nov-11 419.9 401.2 359.0 412.4 378.5 338.9 363.1 296.5 364.0 408.9

Dec-11 419.7 401.5 359.3 412.9 378.8 339.3 363.4 293.9 355.2 410.4

Jan-12 420.6 402.7 360.3 414.6 379.7 340.6 364.2 294.7 355.5 412.4

Feb-12 424.8 403.8 361.4 422.2 380.6 342.5 366.3 295.5 355.7 416.8

Mar-12 408.6 397.4 352.0 404.1 375.1 333.0 358.9 291.3 355.3 398.8

154 160 162 170 171 172 173 190 180 181

Mar-11 514.9 463.2 538.8 472.0 461.3 850.3 428.7 388.5 507.2 410.8

Apr-11 532.1 460.7 534.0 472.3 466.0 814.2 429.1 390.7 519.2 412.3

May-11 535.8 459.5 530.8 472.0 466.0 799.1 429.1 393.3 519.2 412.0

Jun-11 535.8 459.1 528.6 472.0 465.6 781.8 428.8 393.1 531.6 413.4

Jul-11 537.4 468.6 538.0 495.8 485.6 808.5 452.2 394.5 547.2 419.2

Aug-11 536.9 473.9 545.8 496.1 490.8 836.8 452.4 394.7 547.2 420.7

Sep-11 531.0 473.7 546.0 496.1 490.8 826.8 451.5 395.2 568.8 422.6

Oct-11 531.3 476.5 551.5 495.9 490.8 818.6 451.5 396.1 582.3 424.3

Nov-11 542.1 475.9 548.5 498.2 498.6 788.0 453.0 398.0 608.2 427.0

Dec-11 554.6 479.4 551.7 498.6 498.6 809.5 452.8 398.7 608.2 428.0

Jan-12 555.3 482.7 556.8 497.8 498.6 811.4 452.8 400.3 608.2 429.3

Feb-12 567.0 488.3 566.4 500.1 498.6 830.4 452.8 401.6 608.2 433.7

Mar-12 527.7 465.7 537.0 484.2 475.8 811.3 439.7 392.1 541.8 416.4

10


CPAP Percentage Change Year-on-Year (Source: Industry Insight)

102 104 106 110 111 112 113 114 116 118

Mar-11 4.1% 1.7% 2.8% 4.6% 5.1% 5.9% 22.5% 8.4% 4.2% 1.6%

Apr-11 4.2% 1.8% 2.7% 4.7% 5.7% 6.0% 16.6% 7.3% 4.3% 1.6%

May-11 4.6% 2.3% 1.9% 3.9% 5.7% 4.7% 25.6% 0.7% 4.7% 2.9%

Jun-11 5.0% 2.9% 2.5% 3.7% 5.4% 4.8% 25.8% 2.6% 5.8% 2.9%

Jul-11 5.3% 3.2% 4.9% 6.8% 6.7% 8.2% 23.9% 12.9% 6.0% 4.5%

Aug-11 5.4% 3.4% 5.5% 6.8% 6.6% 8.9% 23.8% 15.5% 5.5% 4.4%

Sep-11 5.7% 3.6% 6.2% 6.4% 7.4% 10.1% 23.9% 21.1% 5.5% 5.6%

Oct-11 6.0% 3.3% 6.4% 6.8% 6.3% 10.7% 31.7% 24.1% 5.8% 5.6%

Nov-11 6.1% 3.2% 7.4% 7.5% 6.8% 12.5% 38.5% 29.6% 5.9% 6.0%

Dec-11 6.1% 3.8% 7.9% 7.4% 6.5% 12.3% 38.4% 29.6% 6.3% 5.9%

Jan-12 6.2% 4.4% 7.8% 4.7% 4.9% 10.6% 38.4% 29.6% 6.7% 6.0%

Feb-12 6.1% 3.9% 7.0% 7.9% 4.4% 9.8% 30.2% 21.3% 6.7% 5.1%

Mar-12 6.0% 3.3% 6.1% 7.3% 4.1% 7.9% 19.9% 18.8% 6.1% 5.0%

120 122 124 125 126 129 130 132 134 136

Mar-11 1.4% 2.4% 9.3% 5.5% 3.1% 5.3% 7.1% 3.2% 9.1% 6.3%

Apr-11 0.9% 3.0% 11.9% 6.3% 3.6% 5.1% 7.1% 4.3% 9.1% 6.3%

May-11 0.9% 3.2% 3.5% 4.4% 3.9% 5.2% 7.2% 4.3% 8.4% 6.0%

Jun-11 1.0% 3.5% 1.1% 4.5% 3.9% 4.1% 6.5% 2.5% 7.7% 5.6%

Jul-11 1.0% 6.0% 8.2% 8.6% 4.6% 4.2% 4.8% 2.6% 10.2% 7.2%

Aug-11 1.0% 4.1% 13.8% 8.7% 7.0% 7.7% 4.8% 3.7% 10.0% 7.6%

Sep-11 1.1% 3.2% 13.0% 6.2% 6.9% 7.8% 4.9% 4.2% 10.5% 7.9%

Oct-11 1.1% 3.1% 13.1% 6.3% 7.0% 8.1% 4.5% 3.4% 7.2% 6.7%

Nov-11 3.9% 3.1% 17.4% 4.1% 7.2% 8.4% 4.5% 3.5% 8.8% 8.2%

Dec-11 3.9% 2.9% 17.4% 4.1% 7.1% 8.2% 4.5% 3.4% 7.9% 7.7%

Jan-12 4.0% 3.7% 16.4% 4.1% 5.7% 8.7% 4.5% 3.4% 5.8% 6.5%

Feb-12 4.0% 5.7% 13.2% 4.0% 6.9% 6.2% 3.2% 3.2% 4.6% 5.3%

Mar-12 4.0% 7.3% 8.4% 1.9% 6.9% 5.2% 5.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.4%

138 140 141 142 144 146 148 149 150 152

Mar-11 4.5% 6.7% 7.3% 4.2% 2.5% 4.6% 6.1% 3.7% 0.5% 4.8%

Apr-11 4.3% 5.0% 7.3% 4.3% 2.3% 4.7% 6.3% 3.3% 1.1% 4.3%

May-11 4.5% 5.2% 10.4% 4.2% 2.6% 5.0% 0.6% 3.5% 1.2% 5.3%

Jun-11 4.6% 5.4% 10.6% 4.4% 2.8% 5.3% 2.3% 3.7% 1.2% 5.2%

Jul-11 4.7% 5.5% 10.7% 5.9% 2.8% 5.3% 2.3% 3.8% 1.3% 5.9%

Aug-11 7.3% 4.9% 10.8% 6.0% 2.8% 5.4% 3.6% 3.6% 1.3% 6.2%

Sep-11 6.9% 5.1% 10.9% 6.3% 2.9% 5.6% 3.7% 3.7% 1.3% 7.5%

Oct-11 7.3% 5.2% 11.1% 6.7% 3.0% 4.7% 3.5% 4.6% 3.1% 6.8%

Nov-11 7.6% 5.3% 6.7% 6.8% 3.0% 5.0% 2.7% 4.9% 3.8% 6.7%

Dec-11 7.4% 4.4% 6.6% 6.7% 3.0% 5.0% 2.8% 3.5% 1.2% 7.0%

Jan-12 7.5% 4.5% 6.7% 5.6% 3.1% 5.1% 2.8% 3.6% 1.3% 6.9%

Feb-12 6.7% 4.4% 5.8% 7.1% 2.7% 5.6% 3.0% 3.5% 1.3% 7.6%

Mar-12 5.8% 2.2% 5.7% 6.7% 2.7% 4.6% 2.6% 2.7% 1.3% 7.5%

154 160 162 170 171 172 173 190 180 181

Mar-11 7.7% 9.9% 12.4% 4.8% 10.1% 22.6% 11.5% 2.7% 5.0% 5.5%

Apr-11 11.1% 8.4% 10.3% 4.9% 11.2% 14.2% 12.0% 2.8% 5.0% 5.5%

May-11 11.3% 7.3% 8.6% 4.0% 10.9% 6.2% 8.1% 3.3% 4.2% 4.3%

Jun-11 10.8% 6.7% 7.9% 4.1% 5.8% 12.9% 8.0% 3.4% 4.4% 4.4%

Jul-11 11.1% 8.3% 10.1% 6.0% 10.5% 16.8% 8.9% 3.7% 5.6% 6.0%

Aug-11 11.6% 9.6% 11.6% 6.6% 12.8% 19.9% 10.0% 4.1% 5.9% 6.7%

Sep-11 10.4% 9.7% 12.0% 6.3% 12.8% 15.4% 9.7% 4.4% 6.2% 7.1%

Oct-11 10.9% 10.0% 12.6% 6.3% 11.7% 11.8% 7.8% 4.6% 6.3% 7.2%

Nov-11 13.2% 8.8% 10.3% 6.7% 13.4% 5.2% 8.2% 5.0% 6.5% 7.7%

Dec-11 15.1% 8.5% 9.4% 6.4% 13.4% 6.3% 8.1% 5.4% 6.6% 7.7%

Jan-12 14.8% 8.3% 9.2% 6.0% 12.2% 3.1% 7.4% 5.5% 6.3% 7.2%

Feb-12 14.2% 7.9% 8.8% 6.0% 10.6% 1.9% 6.3% 4.9% 6.5% 7.0%

Mar-12 10.0% 5.6% 5.3% 5.6% 8.1% -2.3% 4.8% 3.8% 5.7% 6.1%

11


CPAP Percentage Change Month-on-Month (Source: Industry Insight)

102 104 106 110 111 112 113 114 116 118

Mar-11 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 2.1% 8.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.8%

Apr-11 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.2%

May-11 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% -0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 7.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7%

Jun-11 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% -0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.3%

Jul-11 0.9% 0.6% 1.1% 3.4% 1.2% 1.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5%

Aug-11 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% -0.4% 0.2%

Sep-11 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% -0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 4.1% 0.2% 0.9%

Oct-11 0.5% -0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 5.7% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1%

Nov-11 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.5% 5.7% 4.5% 0.2% 0.3%

Dec-11 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0%

Jan-12 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.3%

Feb-12 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 3.6% 0.5% 1.3% -3.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5%

Mar-12 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7%

120 122 124 125 126 129 130 132 134 136

Mar-11 0.2% 0.2% 4.6% 2.2% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.6% 1.4% 2.2%

Apr-11 0.4% 0.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1%

May-11 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2%

Jun-11 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.7% -0.4%

Jul-11 0.1% 2.5% -1.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 2.2% 1.2%

Aug-11 0.0% -1.8% 2.6% 0.0% 2.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1% -0.6% -0.3%

Sep-11 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% -0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Oct-11 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% -0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7%

Nov-11 2.8% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%

Dec-11 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Jan-12 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% -0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2%

Feb-12 0.1% 2.7% 0.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%

Mar-12 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4%

138 140 141 142 144 146 148 149 150 152

Mar-11 1.3% 2.7% 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 1.9% 0.8% 1.4% 0.2% 2.2%

Apr-11 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%

May-11 0.2% 0.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% -2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

Jun-11 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% -0.4%

Jul-11 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2%

Aug-11 2.3% -0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% -0.2% 0.0% -0.3%

Sep-11 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%

Oct-11 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 1.8% 0.7%

Nov-11 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7%

Dec-11 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.9% -2.4% 0.0%

Jan-12 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%

Feb-12 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%

Mar-12 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4%

154 160 162 170 171 172 173 190 180 181

Mar-11 3.7% 2.4% 3.5% 0.0% 2.4% 4.3% 0.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3%

Apr-11 3.3% -0.5% -0.9% 0.1% 1.0% -4.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4%

May-11 0.7% -0.3% -0.6% -0.1% 0.0% -1.9% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% -0.1%

Jun-11 0.0% -0.1% -0.4% 0.0% -0.1% -2.2% -0.1% -0.1% 0.5% 0.3%

Jul-11 0.3% 2.1% 1.8% 5.0% 4.3% 3.4% 5.5% 0.4% 1.0% 1.4%

Aug-11 -0.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.1% 1.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%

Sep-11 -1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.2% -0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5%

Oct-11 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%

Nov-11 2.0% -0.1% -0.5% 0.5% 1.6% -3.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%

Dec-11 2.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%

Jan-12 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%

Feb-12 2.1% 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0%

Mar-12 -0.1% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%

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