Consolidation in U.S. Agriculture: The New Rural Landscape and Public Policy Emily Kearney.
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Transcript of Consolidation in U.S. Agriculture: The New Rural Landscape and Public Policy Emily Kearney.
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Consolidation in U.S. Agriculture: The New Rural Landscape and Public
Policy
Emily Kearney
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Outline
(Source: Drabenstott, Mark. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review v84, n1 (1st Quarter 1999): 63-71.)
1. A New Wave of Consolidation Cost-savings consolidation Supply-chain consolidation
2. Implications of Consolidation for U.S. Agriculture
3. Public Policy Issues
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Background
At the beginning of the 19th century 90 percent of U.S. population involved in agriculture; today just 3 percent.
Consolidation has been ongoing; what is new is the type and speed of consolidation
Two types:– Cost-savings– Supply-chain (vertical integration)
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Questions Addressed
1. What does consolidation mean for U.S. agriculture and it participants?
2. What issues, if any does the wave of consolidation pose for public policy?
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Cost-savings Consolidation
Low prices for agricultural commodities have spurred mergers to move down production costs (Cargill, Continental)
1998: more voluntary exits, farm auctions; profit margins are thin: “get big or get out”
Fewer, bigger farms can capture economies of scale– Capital and technology have boosted productivity
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Supply-Chain Consolidation
All stages of production, processing and distribution are bound together (vertical integration)
Effect: a handful of chains dominate production
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Changes to agriculture
Supply chains change…– How agriculture does business: contract production rather
than spot production– Where: concentrates production near processing facilities– Who: “concentrates production in the hands of savvy
producers who can manage tight production controls and negotiate sturdy long-term alliances”
Supply chains prefer coordinating fewer rather than many players to keep transaction costs low
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II. Implications of Consolidation for U.S. Agriculture
Lower Costs– Economies of scale
Consumer and Competitive benefits– Lower food prices (but…monopoly power?)– More competitive in world markets
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Implications of Consolidation for U.S. Agriculture
“New Business Challenges for Producers” Pushing costs down to survive in a market with thin
margins (technology= low costs, high productivity) Stay in the game while players getting bigger Local farmers left without competitive buyers
Dramatic Redrawing of Rural Landscape Diminishes what has traditionally been a strong link
between agriculture and local suppliers Profits drain out of local areas, don’t recirculate Fewer farm communities will be viable
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III. Consolidation and Public Policy Issues
Slowing the Pace of Consolidation– If not, will put strains on farm families and
communities to even greater degree– Trend will continue as long as prices are low– Need to restore growth in world food demand and
boost U.S. exports stronger export growth will lift food prices and in turn will
mitigate (the pace of) rural impacts
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III. Consolidation and Public Policy Issues
The Geography of Consolidation– Concentrating in new areas, shifting away from
traditional patterns– Need for national environmental standards for the
livestock industry Would provide a more level playing field, push location
decisions to the local level National threshold issues would also create a more
stable business climate and encourage investment in the US
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III. Consolidation and Public Policy Issues
The Rural Impact– Many rural communities will be forced to find new
economic engines– Effects on communities will be even greater than
effects on farmers– “Put simply, many rural communities face a make
or break period in the years ahead– Ultimately responsibility for economic futures falls
to communities themselves. But…..
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III. Consolidation and Public Policy Issues
Future is also shaped by Public Policies Financial markets- have less capital options, need
equity and other forms of capital Telecommunications- economic salvation? Infrastructure- highways, bridges, sewer systems Business Assistance- mostly techincal Research and Technology- need rural focus
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Conclusion
As long as commodity prices stay low, consolidation is likely to accelerate
This means a painful transition for rural communities
However… “Consolidation is generally favorable for U.S. agriculture
and the U.S. economy. It will yield a lower cost structure, which in turn will lead to lower food prices and more competitive U.S. food and farm products in world markets.”