Conservation Adaptation Initiatives and 2012 Science for the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative

Steve Traxler, FWS PFLCC Steering Committ ee meeti ngAugust 21, 2012

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Today’s talk

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1. PFLCC Science workshop June 13-14, 2012

2. PFLCC Science funded projects

UF

FSU

USGS

GeoAdaptive

PFLCC Science workshopJune 13-14. 2012Contractor: Adam Terando (NC State)Facilitator: Perran RossWorkshop Objectives: • Examine results from current or recently completed integrated science

projects that involve the PFLCC region. • Examine approaches to decision-analysis that have been applied in the

Southeast or that could be applied in the PFLCC. • Discuss current research efforts that will support PFLCC strategic planning

goals and activities over the next one to three years. • Identify science gaps or unfunded priorities that will be a focus of the PFLCC

Science Implementation Plan. • Provide the above mentioned input to a second management focused

workshop

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PFLCC Science workshop• Four science themes will be covered that focus on key areas of

climate and landscape change in the region: climate and sea level rise projections, coastal impacts, ecological models, and decision analysis. The presentations for the first three science themes will be “results-oriented”, stressing insights gained about potential future climatic and landscape changes, rather than focusing on the specific process or methods involved in reaching a science team’s conclusions. The decision analysis theme will highlight project results but will also cover methodological considerations and the challenges of conservation planning given the complexity and uncertainty associated with integrating multiple processes, models, and disciplines.

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PFLCC Science workshopClimate Change and Sea Level Rise: • Are the current downscaling models adequate? • Are the results from statistical and dynamic downscaled models similar? • Is the spatio-temporal resolution and available variables sufficient for

ecological and landscape modeling in the PFLCC? • What is the current best estimate and robust estimate of potential regional

sea level rise (due to both eustatic and steric changes) by mid-century and 2100?

Coastal Impacts: • What potential Sea Level Rise scenarios are being used statewide? • What type of uncertainty surround these scenarios? • What are the strengths and weaknesses of next-generation “non-bathtub”

coastal inundation models?

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PFLCC Science workshopEcological Modeling: • Should species be used or habitats to gauge likely climate/landscape change impacts and the

relevance to decision-making? • What abiotic and biotic processes are most important to consider in the context of climate

change? • Which pre-existing layers are most useful for ecological and habitat modeling (e.g. CLIP, FNAI)?

Decision Analysis: • What is the process for facilitating decision-making in each approach? • What are the strengths and weaknesses of approaches to characterize future urbanization

potential? • Are these approaches scalable? Can they be applied across the PFLCC geography? • What is the best way to portray the information? Websites? Workshops? • What decisions related to conservation adaptation do the mangers need to make in 1 year, 3

years? • Is there a common set of PFLCC ecological/conservation/societal endpoints that is targeted across

decision analysis approaches?

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PFLCC Science workshop

Workshop Deliverable: • The workshop will generate a report that will

summarize the major landscape level science projects and key results, summarize user discussions, and provide guidance as to future science needs. The report will be provided to the steering committee for the development of the upcoming strategic plan and will be used to inform a subsequent management-focused workshop.

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PFLCC Science Workshop Attendees:

Agency: USGS, USFWS, NOAA, NPS, FWCC

Universities: FSU, UF, NC State, Auburn, FAU, MIT, Penn State,

TNC, GeoAdaptive, American Bird Conservancy, Defenders of Wildlife

PFLCC Science workshop Results

Linkages of different disciplinary frames of reference1. Early process 2. Achieved by explicit box and arrows models3. Make science user friendly4. Provide data linkage to decision making5. Build on expertise (large data sets inform science questions)6. Look to future questions7. How can tools be linked

Need meta data to integrate

8. Open source tools including underlying code for improvement9. Linking those with data to those with models to validate and

enhance

PFLCC Science workshop Results• Who is not here?• Can we understand future human behavior?• Outreach to other sectors:• Social science• Economics• Regulatory agencies and land/water mangers• Design planners• Policy planners• Important role of • Very large data set management• Computing capacity• Algorithms• Cost• Will need new tools• Balance screening tools with smaller down scaling step while retaining nimbleness

PFLCC Science workshop ResultsWhat to do with $100 K

• Robust communication platform 5• Restoration scenarios 4• Species surveys 3• Conservation endpoints 3• User friendly data access 2

PFLCC Science Funding FY 12

• Funding to update CLIP through FSU/FNAI• Funding to update CLIP through UF• Funding to USGS National Wetlands Center

For Decision support development, etc.• Funding for Scenario Expansion to the state of

Florida through GeoAdaptive– Impact assessment with updated CLIP

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Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative

• Collaborative applied conservation science partnership

• Build on existing initiatives• Science and tools to address

climate change and other limiting factors– Development– Invasive species– Water management

• FWS, USGS & NPS will provide initial funding and staff; base funding in future years

LCCs – The Vision• Partner agencies and organizations

coordinate with each other while continuing to work within their existing authorities and jurisdictions

• Identify science needs and best management practices

• Connect ongoing efforts through establishment of a conservation forum

• Eliminate duplication through improved conservation planning and design

February 2012 14PFLCC

MIT Everglades Project Overview

•Research initiative developed by MIT and sponsored by FWS, FWCC and USGS.

Simulates the possible effects of climate change and population growth under different planning trajectories in

South-Central Florida.

Aims to identify the possible effects of a set of future trajectories of change on strategic habitat conservation

(SHC) initiatives.

In the past, management decisions have been directed at managing or restoring historic conditions…….

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Landscape Change-under climate change and urbanization-

Strategic Ecological

Areas

Current urban areas

Future protected areas

Existing DOI Conservation

Areas

Vargas-Moreno, J.C. 2009. Climate Change and Landscape Planning. MIT

Anticipating movement enables increased future protection

The Downscaling Challenge

Adapted from: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/images/ipcc_scenario_prediction.gif

Need to Downscale IPCC Scenarios and Global Circulation Model to Regional Climate Models

This process in itself introduces significant uncertainty

But…we must proceed with best available estimates

Scenario Parameters & BundlingWhich specific values are used for each dimension, and how are they grouped?

Alternative Futures Simulation Process

ATTRACTIVENESSDEMAND

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES (2020 -2040 -2060)

•Residential •Conservation•Agriculture

•Residential •Conservation•Agriculture

Conservation Strategies(based on stakeholder consultation)

Acquire current most valuable areas for conservation• CLIP, Strategic Habitat, Critical Linkages

Identify and acquire future suitable habitat• Accounting for change in vegetation, temperature, precipitation,

etc

Connect existing patches with future suitable habitat• Using Critical linkages – Florida Greenways project

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2

3

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Proactive Conservation Network

1. Structural Corridors: 2km wide area that connects existing patches of conservation (based on CLIP, SHCA priority data, FEGN critical linkages as weighted by stakeholders)

2. Interior Habitat Corridors:Expansion of structural corridors

to provide core habitat (includes all of top stakeholder-weighted priority area)

3. Patches:Adds largest remaining patches

based on CLIP priority 1 data to expand existing conservation areas

4. Potential Urban Conflict Area: Areas within the potential

conservation network that are vulnerable to development

!( Major Cities

Interstate Highways

Major Lakes

Major Rivers

Structural Corridors

Interior Habitat Corridors

Patch Addition

Current Conservation

Year: 2010Year: 2020Year: 2040

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Scenario C Scenario B

High Sea Level Rise – Low Financial ResourcesBusiness as Usual – Double Population

Low Sea Level Rise – High Financial ResourcesProactive – Trend Population

Year: 2060Year: 2060

Only newarea

allocated

Allocated Land Uses

Residential

Conservation

Agriculture

!( Transit Oriented Dev.

Sea Level Rise

Current Land Uses

Residential

Conservation

Agriculture

Interstate Highways

Major Lakes

Major Riversotherother

16.7%

26.6%

27.7%

29.1%

Percent of Study Region Area

9.7%

22.7%

44.1%

23.5%

Percent of Study Region Area

Current uses of the scenarios

• Vulnerability assessments– Terrestrial FWCC and Defenders– Marine habitats (3) and species (3) NOAA and

FWCC• Listing packages

– Bonneted Bat• Beaches statewide HCP

– 17 species, describing take• Carbon Sequestration maps for south Florida

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Critical Lands & Waters Identification Project (CLIP)

Derived from and updates existing data sources

Prioritizes biodiversity, landscapes, water

Multi-agency technical advisory group

1 & 2 Priorities Overlay

Agriculture and

Silviculture

Biodiversity Surface WaterLandscape Ground Water

Combined Model

Strategic Habitat Conservation Areas

Under-Protected Natural Communities

Biodiversity Hotspots

Rare Species Habitat Conservation Priorities

Landscape Integrity

Florida Ecological Greenways Network

Intermediate Aquifer Vulnerability

Shoreline Complexity Index

Surficial Aquifer Vulnerability

Hard Bottom/ Coral Habitat

Floridan Aquifer Vulnerability

Seagrass Habitat

Significant Surface Waters

Natural Floodplain

Wetlands

MarineBiodiversityBiodiversity Surface WaterSurface WaterLandscapeLandscape Ground WaterGround Water

Combined Model

Strategic Habitat Conservation Areas

Under-Protected Natural Communities

Biodiversity Hotspots

Rare Species Habitat Conservation Priorities

Landscape Integrity

Florida Ecological Greenways Network

Intermediate Aquifer Vulnerability

Shoreline Complexity Index

Surficial Aquifer Vulnerability

Hard Bottom/ Coral Habitat

Floridan Aquifer Vulnerability

Seagrass Habitat

Significant Surface Waters

Natural Floodplain

Wetlands

Marine

CLIP Data Structure

Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative Geography

Geography was initially defined by watersheds and bird conservation regions

Boundaries are not hard lines but represent ecological transition zones

February 2012 31PFLCC

UF CLIP Updates• Sea Level Rise and Coastal-Inland Connectivity –UF will identify currently available

coastal to inland land areas capable of facilitating functional ecological connectivity at a landscape scale and then assess how these various coastal to inland corridors might be affected by 0.5m to 2m of sea level rise by 2100.

• Water Restoration modeling –UF will explore general, regional landscape-scale analyses of available GIS data including watersheds, soils, land use, hydrographic features, floodplains, DEMs, surficial geology, and land ownership to identify strategic opportunities for dispersed water storage. To start, this effort will likely be best pursued within a specific regional study area, with the Northern Everglades watershed as the most obvious candidate.

• Storm Protection – Ecosystem services are addressed in various ways in existing CLIP data. However, one of the exploratory goals of CLIP database development is the utility and feasibility of including a separate Ecosystem Services Resource Category.

• Storm Surge- Modeling with HAZUS for three counties to be selected by Steve Traxler and Paul Zwick including base storm surge and storm surge with sea level rise to produce the following products. This work will be conducted in coordination with Tom Hoctor and the Storm Protection analysis described above.

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FSU/FNAI CLIP updates• CLIP Core Data Layer Updates - The CLIP Database is intended to incorporate new

information as it becomes available. Existing core data layers need to be updated over time as land use changes, analyses are updated, and possibly some prioritization methods are modified to reflect changes in land use or other modifications such as climate change that need to be addressed.

– FNAI Rare Species Habitat Conservation Priorities – the current version of the FNAIHAB model used in CLIP is based on 248 species habitat models last updated in 2007. FNAI is currently finalizing updates to approximately 200 of those species for a new version of FNAIHAB that will need to be integrated into CLIP. In addition, we have identified approximately 35 additional species that are in need of revised or new habitat models to add to a future FNAIHAB model revision.

– Priority Natural Communities – virtually all of the 12 natural communities included in this core data layer could be revised with updated land cover data that has been completed in the past year (Cooperative Land Cover, or CLC). In addition, there is consensus to add Upland Pine to this list. Land cover data for at least five of the priority community types are in need of some additional revision that could be completed with this funding.

– Greenways – the Florida Ecological Greenways Network model is currently undergoing significant revisions, with base boundary revisions due to be completed in late 2012 and a reprioritization by June 2013. Revisions will include consideration of coastal to inland connectivity to facilitate adaption to sea level rise and potential changes in priorities based on sea level rise or other climate change considerations. Once completed, those revisions need to be incorporated into an updated CLIP core data layer. 33

– Significant Surface Waters – this model would benefit from revisions in south Florida watersheds, where flow patterns do not always follow a traditional stream flow pattern found in areas of higher topography. Contributions of artificial canals to significant surface waters need to be revised in the model.

– Natural Floodplain – this model is currently undergoing revision for the Florida Forever Conservation Needs Assessment. Additional analysis is needed and the revised model will need to be incorporated into an updated CLIP core data layer.

– Wetlands – this core data layer needs to be revised using latest land cover data (CLC).• Landscape Context Analysis – for CLIP version 2.0 we conducted a preliminary landscape context analysis that

focused primarily on modeling ecological integrity of areas statewide as well as on CLIP Priorities 1-2. The analysis was considered exploratory in CLIP 2.0, and it needs to be vetted by the CLIP Technical Advisory Group (TAG) before finalizing the methodology.

• Conservation Strategy Analysis – for CLIP version 2.0 we conducted a preliminary analysis to prioritize CLIP resource values by potential conservation strategies. In the example, CLIP Priorities 1-2 were divided into two Conservation Strategy Categories: active management for natural conditions (for resources requiring relatively pristine natural conditions), and maintaining compatibility and connectivity of land uses with resource values (for resources potentially compatible with working landscapes for example). This method is promising for providing more information to policy makers than simple resource priority classes and could prove useful for LCC mapping and prioritizations.

• SLR Impacts to FWS Critical Habitat – in addition to evaluating the impacts of potential sea level rise scenarios on CLIP resources, our team could assess impacts of sea level rise to federally designated critical habitat, where available or other priorities for ESA listed species.

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Future Directions for GeoAdaptive Scenario work

• Looking for partners to undertake – Full impact analysis of scenarios

• With Expert-based Science management workshops– Florida Keys

– Evaluate existing conservation strategies• Overlay and analyze relative to 9 MIT scenarios• Identify vulnerabilities in current and proposed network relative to

climate change– Develop/test revised conservation strategies

• Identify potential network expansions/shifts• ID potential climate corridors or stepping stones

– FY 2012 funding• Adding carbon sequestration• Update CLIP• Use updated CLIP in impact assessment• Incentives over 2-3 pilot areas 35

USGS Wetlands center• Decision support tools• Data usage• Data storage• Data conversion• Linkage to other existing projects• EVERView

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Questions? Cabinet meeting of the island nation, Maldives

Steve_Traxler@fws.gov