CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · 2015-12-10 · Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley...

CONSENSUS FORECAST

INDIA 2CALENDAR 18NOTES 20

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist

OLGA COSCODAN EconomistCARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist

ANGELA BOUZANIS EconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH EconomistMIRIAM DOWD Editor

PUBLICATION DATE 24 March 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 18 March - 23 March 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 23 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 28 April 2015

India • April 2015

FOCUSECONOMICS India

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

India

POLITICS | Modi delivers pragmatic, albeit lacklustre budget for FY 2015/16Nine months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved an overwhelming election victory as a result of a campaign centered on deregulating business and fostering foreign direct investment, the government presented its first full-year budget on 28 February. While the USD 290 billion budget for FY 2015/16 fell short of sky-high expectations for large reforms, it included a number of positive policy announcements focused on boosting economic growth and creating a more business friendly-environment. Overall, the budget signaled the government’s commitment to achieving high economic growth rates, while pushing the pace of fiscal consolidation back slightly.

One of the budget’s main, and largely-expected, highlights was the planned increase in spending on infrastructure and defense. The government increased spending targets to 2.5% of GDP, up from last year’s 1.9% of GDP. The quality of country’s infrastructure is poor and greater expenditure on roads and railways is badly needed to jumpstart the economy. In this regard, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley stated that five ultra-mega power projects will be constructed to ease India’s chronic energy shortages. Notably, Jaitley

GDP slowed slightly in the quarter from October–December, growing 7.5% year-on-year. More recent data paint a cloudy picture of the economy. Industrial production eased in January and the manufacturing PMI fell in February indicating slowing economic momentum. However, on the flip side, the services PMI rose and the trade deficit shrank in February. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley presented the budget for fiscal year 2015/2016 on 28 February. While it contains a number of potentially beneficial policies, including increased spending on infrastructure and significant tax reforms, it fell short of introducing any groundbreaking changes.

While India’s economic outlook remains fairly stable, recent revisions to the national accounts methodology and the revised historical data are lifting the forecast. FocusEconomics panelists raised their projections by 0.6 percentage points this month. The panel now expects GDP to increase 7.1% in FY 2015/2016. For FY 2016/2017, the panel sees the economy expanding 7.6%.

Inflation rose from 5.1% in January to 5.4% in February, according to the recently-revised CPI series. In an unscheduled meeting on 4 March, the Central Bank decided to reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points from 7.75% to 7.50%. The Central Bank also announced that it had signed an agreement with the government outlining a clear inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy. Panelists expect inflation to average 5.6% in FY 2015/2016. In FY 2016/2017, the panel expects inflation to average 5.7%.

Outlook improves

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Angela BouzanisEconomist

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 1,227 1,276 1,327GDP (USD bn): 1,875 2,360 3,451GDP per capita (USD): 1,528 1,848 2,597GDP growth (%): 6.2 7.3 7.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.8 -4.0 -3.3Inflation (%): 9.4 6.0 5.5Current Account (% of GDP): -3.5 -1.4 -1.9External Debt (% of GDP): 21.5 20.8 15.8

India



April 2015

announced that only part of the increased infrastructure expenditure would be financed directly from the budget; the rest will come from public sector undertakings and other internal sources. To fill part of this funding gap, the government announced that it would launch tax-free infrastructure bonds, as well as establish a National Investment and Infrastructure Fund. Successful implementation and financing will be key going forward.

Another positive aspect of the budget are the policies aimed at improving the ease of doing business and monetizing taxes. Jaitley emphasized the government’s commitment to implementing the upcoming Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April 2016 as well as creating more transparent and simplified tax laws moving forward. The government pledged to gradually reduce the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25% over the next four years and to remove some of the current exemptions. In addition, a modern bankruptcy law was tabled and a law against black money was outlined which, if successful, could reduce tax evasion. The government also outlined a number of proposals to encourage savings, such as tax incentives for payments toward pensions and insurance premiums.

Yet, despite all the increased dynamism and reforms Modi’s government pledged, Jaitley failed to deliver in a few areas. In particular, he failed to outline a comprehensive roadmap on how to reform India’s subsidy schemes, which account for 1.6% of GDP. The subject is politically unpopular, which may explain its absence from the budget. In addition, the government pushed back its target of lowering the deficit to 3.0% of GDP from FY 2016/2017 to FY 2017/2018. For FY 2015/2016, the government is targeting a fiscal deficit of 3.9%, up from the previous 3.6% target expected in the FY 2014/2015 budget. Radhika Rao, Economist at DBS adds:

Overall, the improved expenditure mix and realistic revenue assumptions bode well for the FY 15/16 fiscal position. What is lacking is a clearer timeline to lower subsidies, optimistic privatization and indirect tax targets. Any disappointment on the growth front and / or a rebound in fuel prices could add to the stress on the fiscal books.

Against this backdrop, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists’ foresee a fiscal deficit of 4.0% for FY 2015/2016. For 2016/2017, the panel expects a deficit of 3.7%.

The Central Bank sees the economy growing 6.5% in FY 2015/2016. Although India’s outlook remains fairly stable, a recent revision to national accounts methodology and revised historical data is lifting the forecast. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 7.1% in FY 2015/2016, which is up 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For FY 2016/2017, the panel sees economic growth at 7.6%.

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI eases while services improvesThe HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.2 in February from 52.9 in January. February’s result marked the second consecutive monthly drop and a five-month low. The PMI is now closer to the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in business activity in the manufacturing sector.

According to HSBC, the drop was driven by a deterioration in all five components of the index. Weaker growth was recorded for output and new orders. In addition, employment levels fell in February and backlogs of work rose. HSBC pointed out that, “[m]anufacting growth in India lost momentum

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Note: HSBC India Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50 points to a contraction.Source: HSBC and Markit.

40

45

50

55

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

PMI ManufacturingPMI ServicesThreshold

INR Million % of GDP1 1,141,575 -

2 Tax Revenue (net to centre) 919,842 -3 Non-Tax Revenue 221,733 -

4 635,902 -5 Recoveries of Loans 10,753 -6 Other Receipts 69,500 -

7 Borrowings and other liabilities 555,649 -8 1,777,477 -9 1,312,200 -

10 On Revenue Account of which, 1,206,027 -11 Interest Payments 456,145 -12 On Capital Account 106,173 -

13 465,277 -14 On Revenue Account 330,020 -15 On Capital Account 135,257 -

16 1,777,477 -17 Revenue Expenditure 1,536,047 -

18 Of Which, Grants for creation of Capital Assets 110,551

-19 Capital Expenditure 241,430 -

20 394,472 -2.821 283,921 -2.022 555,649 -3.923 99,504 -0.7

Plan Expenditure

Union Budget Fiscal Year 2015/16

Revenue Receipts

Capital Receipts

Total ReceiptsNon-Plan Expenditure

Total Expenditure

Revenue DeficitEffective Revenue DeficitFiscal DeficitPrimary Deficit

Notes: Union Budget for fiscal year 2015/16.Source: Ministry of Finance.



April 2015

in February, with output and new orders expanding at softer rates than those seen in the past four months.”

Meanwhile, the services PMI rose to 53.9 in February from January’s 52.4. The figure marked an eight-month high and indicates that business activity in services continues to expand. According to HSBC, the increase in February stemmed from strong new business growth during the month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment rising 5.8% in FY 2015/16, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016/2017, the panel expects fixed investment to increase 7.8%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production eases in JanuaryIn January, industrial production expanded 2.6% compared to the same month last year. The reading was below December’s revised 3.2% growth (previously reported: +1.7% year-on-year), but overshot the 0.7% expansion the market had expected.

The slowdown in January was broad-based. Manufacturing production rose 3.3% over the same month last year, which was below December’s 3.8% rise. Mining contracted 2.8% in January, which followed December’s 2.1% fall. In addition, production of electricity slowed.

On a use-based classification, the figure was driven by a deterioration in the production of consumer goods, basic goods and intermediate goods. In contrast, the production of capital goods accelerated in January.

Despite the slowdown, the trend improved. Annual average growth in industrial production rose from 1.7% in December to 1.9% in January.

FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to increase 5.7% in fiscal year 2015/2016, which is up 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For fiscal year 2016/2017, the panel expects industrial output to expand 7.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Wholesale prices tumble in February, while inflation risesConsumer prices in February increased 0.81% over the previous month, which contrasted January’s zero growth. The monthly result mainly reflected higher prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco as well as for housing and fuel. Inflation rose from January’s 5.1% to 5.4% in February, which was above the 5.2% that markets had expected.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 5.6% in FY 2015/2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For FY 2016/2017, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 5.7%.

The wholesale price index (WPI) in February decreased 1.40% over the previous month, which was notably below the revised 0.22% fall observed in January (previously reported: -0.83% month-on-month). February’s fall came on the back of a large decrease in fuel prices which stem from the recent sharp fall in global oil prices. Decreases were also recorded for the prices of foods articles and manufactured prices.

Inflation | Wholesale and Consumer Price Index

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index (CPI) and annual variation of wholesale price index (WPI) in %.Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.

-4

0

4

8

12

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

CPI - Month-on-month (left scale)CPI - Year-on-year (right scale)WPI - Year-on-year (right scale)

%%

Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-5

0

5

10

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Year-on-year

Annual average

%



April 2015

Wholesale prices in February fell 2.1% over the same month last year, which followed January’s 0.4% decrease and marked the steepest decrease on record. February’s print was below the 0.8% fall the markets had expected. As a result of the subdued reading, annual average WPI inflation fell from 3.3% in January to 2.7% in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect wholesale price inflation to average 1.8% in FY 2015/2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2016/2017, the panel expects wholesale price inflation to average 4.5%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Reserve Bank cuts interest rates unexpectedlyIn an unscheduled meeting on 4 March, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points, from 7.75% to 7.50%. The move was unexpected by market analysts and came after the Bank’s decision to hold the repurchase rate at its 3 February meeting. In order to maintain the corridor at which monetary policy rates move, the Bank also decided to cut the marginal standing facility rate (Bank rate) from 8.75% to 8.50% and the reverse repurchase rate from 6.75% to 6.50%.

Commenting on the decision, the Central Bank recognized that recent economic data have confirmed disinflationary pressures. Further, the new consumer price index has showed that inflationary pressures are evolving as anticipated by the Reserve Bank last year, although at a faster pace than predicted. The monetary authorities explained that uncertainties surrounding the inflation outlook remain as oil prices have risen in recent weeks and food prices will be influenced by the south-west monsoon. In addition, the government’s actions on food management will be significant in determining the inflation forecast.

Regarding the recent revision to GDP statistics, the Central Bank pointed out that the new information presents a picture of a robust economy. However, the recently-released estimate is at odds with other economic indicators and anecdotal evidence on the state of the economy. Despite the contradiction, the Bank believes the overall portrait of a steadily recovering economy is accurate.

In addition, the Central Bank commented on the recently released Union Budget. The monetary authorities stated that many of the structural reforms contained in the Budget will improve supply over the medium term. In the near term, the Central Bank estimates that aggregate demand will be boosted by the one-year postponement of fiscal consolidation to a 3% target. Concern remains regarding the large borrowings planned for the public sector. Moreover, the government has pledged to compensate for the postponement by improving the quality of fiscal adjustment going forward. In addition, the government and the Central Bank signed a memorandum outlining clear inflation objectives and stating that fiscal and monetary policy will work together in a complementary method.

In conclusion, the Central Bank summarized that low inflation figures combined with some still-weak data in economic indicators justify its monetary policy action. The Bank added that the need for an unscheduled decision was prompted by the weak state of certain sectors of the economy and the release of the agreement on monetary policy framework. Looking forward, the Central Bank stated its target of lowering the inflation rate to 4% by the end of a two-year period beginning in FY 2016/2017. In addition, the RBI explained that,

MSF, Repo and Reverse Repo Rates | in %

Note: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate, Repo Rate and Reverse Repo Rate in %.Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

MSF Rate Repo Rate Reverse Repo Rate

%



April 2015

“further monetary actions will be conditioned by incoming data, especially on the easing of supply constraints, improved availability of key inputs such as power, land, minerals and infrastructure, continuing progress on high-quality fiscal consolidation, the pass through of past rate cuts into lending rates, the monsoon outturn and developments in the international environment.”

FocusEconomics panelists project that the repurchase rate will average 7.10% at the end of FY 2015/2016. For FY 2016/2017, panelists see the repurchase rate ending the year at 7.00%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade deficit shrinks in FebruaryMore recent data related to India’s external sector showed that the trade deficit totaled USD 6.8 billion in February, which was below the USD 8.3 billion shortfall observed in the same month last year. February’s result represents the lowest deficit in 17 months. In the 12 months up to February, the trade deficit recorded USD 135.6 billion, which narrowed slightly from the USD 137.1 billion shortfall recorded in the 12 months up to January.

The narrowing in the trade deficit showed that imports contracted 15.7% annually in February, which followed the 11.4% fall registered in January. The reading, which marked a 12-month low, was largely the result of the sharp decline in oil prices. Accordingly, oil imports totaled USD 6.10 billion, which represented a 55.5% decrease compared to the same month of the previous year.

Meanwhile, exports contracted 15.0% year-on-year in February (January: -11.2% year-on-year).

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 4.9% in FY 2015/2016, reaching USD 341 billion. In FY 2016/2017, the panel sees exports expanding 8.7% and reaching USD 371 billion.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.

-40

-20

0

20

40

-220

-190

-160

-130

-100

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports (yoy, right scale)

%



April 2015

Economic Indicators | FY 2010/11 - 2019/20

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20Real Sector Population (million) 1,195 1,211 1,227 1,243 1,260 1,276 1,293 1,310 1,327 1,345GDP per capita (USD) 1,427 1,563 1,509 1,511 1,679 1,826 2,038 2,291 2,582 2,918GDP (USD bn) 1,705 1,893 1,852 1,878 2,115 2,330 2,635 3,001 3,427 3,924GDP (INR bn) 77,841 88,320 99,885 113,451 124,905 136,023 152,450 170,664 190,970 213,595Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 20.2 13.5 13.1 13.6 10.1 8.9 12.1 11.9 11.9 11.8Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 8.9 6.7 5.1 6.9 7.4 7.1 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 8.7 9.2 5.5 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 11.1 12.6 -0.3 3.0 3.6 5.8 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.7Agriculture (annual variation in %) 8.3 5.0 1.2 3.7 1.3 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3Industry (annual variation in %) 7.6 7.9 2.5 4.5 - - - - - -Services (annual variation in %) 9.7 6.6 8.1 9.1 - - - - - -Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 8.2 3.0 1.1 -0.1 3.7 5.7 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.7 -4.9 -4.8 -4.6 -4.2 -4.0 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 67.5 66.8 66.6 61.5 66.7 65.6 64.0 62.5 61.4 60.3Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 16.1 6.0 7.5 10.9 - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 10.6 8.5 10.2 9.5 6.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, aop) 9.6 9.0 7.4 6.0 2.7 1.8 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2RBI Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 6.75 8.50 7.50 8.00 7.50 7.10 7.00 6.75 6.59 6.4491-Day Treasury Bill (%, eop) 7.31 9.02 8.19 8.94 - - - - - -10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.99 8.59 7.96 8.81 7.90 7.47 7.09 7.08 7.05 7.02Stock Market (var. of BSE SENSEX in %) 10.9 -10.5 8.2 9.0 - - - - - -Exchange Rate (INR per USD, eop) 44.5 50.9 54.3 60.0 62.1 62.8 62.5 62.1 61.4 60.7Exchange Rate (INR per USD, aop) 45.5 47.9 54.4 60.4 61.2 62.6 62.7 62.3 61.8 61.0External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -4.2 -4.7 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0Current Account Balance (USD bn) -47.8 -78.8 -87.4 -32.8 -30.5 -26.5 -41.1 -52.5 -64.1 -78.0Trade Balance (USD bn) -119 -184 -190 -136 -136 -136 -146 -167 -195 -234Exports (USD bn) 251 306 300 314 325 341 371 415 469 534Imports (USD bn) 370 490 490 450 462 477 517 582 664 768Exports (annual variation in %) 40.5 21.7 -1.8 4.4 3.7 4.9 8.7 11.9 12.9 13.9Imports (annual variation in %) 28.2 32.4 0.1 -8.2 2.7 3.4 8.3 12.6 14.1 15.7International Reserves (USD bn) 305 295 293 296 330 368 404 407 421 436International Reserves (months of imports) 9.9 7.2 7.2 7.9 8.6 9.2 9.4 8.4 7.6 6.8External Debt (USD bn) 318 361 409 441 461 491 516 530 541 552External Debt (% of GDP) 18.6 19.1 22.1 23.5 21.8 21.1 19.6 17.7 15.8 14.1 Quarterly Data Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 7.5 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.5Business Confidence Index 138.0 - - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.8 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, aop) 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.0 3.3 3.8 4.8 6.0RBI Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 8.00 7.50 7.31 7.24 7.16 7.10 7.08 7.06 7.00 7.0010-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.86 7.90 7.70 7.67 7.58 7.47 7.38 7.33 7.26 7.09Exchange Rate (INR per USD, eop) 63.0 62.1 62.5 62.7 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.5Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) -8.2 -2.6 -4.6 -5.9 -7.6 -8.7 -9.8 -10.3 -10.6 -11.7Trade Balance (USD bn) -39.7 - - - - - - - - -Exports (USD bn) 77.5 - - - - - - - - -Imports (USD bn) 117.1 - - - - - - - - -Exports (annual variation in %) -0.8 - - - - - - - - -Imports (annual variation in %) -0.8 - - - - - - - - - Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.6 4.3 1.0 0.5 2.6 -2.7 3.9 3.2 2.6 -HSBC Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 51.4 51.5 53.0 52.4 51.0 51.6 53.3 54.5 52.9 51.2HSBC Services PMI (50-threshold) 50.2 54.4 52.2 50.6 51.6 50.0 52.6 51.1 52.4 53.9Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.58 0.93 1.77 0.91 0.00 0.14 0.21 -0.41 0.00 0.81Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 8.3 7.5 8.0 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.4 5.0 5.1 5.4Inflation (WPI, mom variation in %) 0.66 0.55 1.09 0.49 -0.48 -0.70 -1.36 -1.38 -0.22 -1.40Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 6.2 5.7 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.7 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -2.1Exchange Rate (INR per USD, eop) 59.2 60.1 60.6 60.5 61.9 61.4 62.2 63.0 62.0 61.7Trade Balance (USD bn) -11.2 -11.8 -12.2 -10.8 -14.2 -13.4 -16.9 -9.4 -8.3 -6.8Exports (annual variation in %) 12.4 10.2 7.3 2.4 2.7 -5.0 7.3 -3.8 -11.2 -15.0Imports (annual variation in %) -11.4 8.3 4.3 2.1 26.0 3.6 26.8 -4.8 -11.4 -15.7

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) released new national accounts data on 9 February, which introduced a new methodology and shifted the base year of calculation from 2004/05 to 2011/12. Historical series have been revised according to the new methodology and it affects all variables related to GDP. Some forecasts may not yet reflect these changes. On 12 February, MOSPI released new consumer price index data, which introduced a new methodology and rebased from 2010 to 2012. CPI data from January 2015 and forward is taken from this new series.



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.6 9.2 9.8 > 9.8

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015/16 | evol of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

4 | GDP 2016/17 | evol of forecasts

Notes and sources

General: All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). IMF forecasts refer to calendar year. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. Quarters correspond to

calendar year (i.e. Q1=Jan.-Mar.)3 GDP, evolution of 2015/16 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015/16 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval

in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17Allianz 7.5 7.7ANZ 6.3 7.0BBVA Research 6.0 6.5Berenberg 5.8 6.0BofA Merrill Lynch 6.3 7.0Capital Economics 5.5 6.0CII 7.5 -Citigroup Global Mkts 8.1 8.4Credit Agricole 7.5 7.6Credit Suisse 8.1 8.9Crisil 7.9 8.2DBS Bank 7.8 8.3Deutsche Bank 7.5 7.5EIU 6.6 6.7Frontier Strategy Group 6.5 7.5Goldman Sachs 6.3 6.8HSBC 7.8 8.3India Ratings and Research 6.5 -ING 7.7 8.5JPMorgan 7.2 7.8Kotak Securities 7.4 7.8Morgan Stanley 6.3 6.8NCAER 6.5 -Nomura 7.8 8.3Oxford Economics 7.5 7.5Société Générale 7.4 7.7Standard Chartered 7.7 8.0UBS 7.5 8.3United Overseas Bank 7.4 7.7SummaryMinimum 5.5 6.0Maximum 8.1 8.9Median 7.4 7.7Consensus 7.1 7.6History30 days ago 6.5 7.060 days ago 6.2 6.790 days ago 6.2 6.7Additional ForecastsIMF (Mar. 2015) 7.5 -ADB (Dec. 2014) 6.3 -Central Bank (Feb. 2015) 6.5 -

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15

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndiaAsia (ex Japan)World

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Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

IndiaAsia (ex Japan)World

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Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

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5 | GDP 2015/16 | Panelist Distribution



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

5

6

7

8


2015/16 2016/17

8 | Investment | variation in %

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5

10

15

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2000 2005 2010 2015

IndiaAsia (ex Japan)

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

5

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2015/16 2016/17

6 | Consumption | variation in %

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4

6

8

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12

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz - - - -ANZ - - - -BBVA Research 6.4 7.3 4.7 5.7Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 5.7 6.2 3.3 5.0Capital Economics 4.0 - 6.0 -CII 6.9 - 4.2 -Citigroup Global Mkts 7.8 8.3 - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 8.2 9.0 4.5 9.0Crisil 7.8 8.0 6.2 8.0DBS Bank - - - -Deutsche Bank 7.9 7.2 6.1 9.3EIU 6.6 7.2 6.0 7.2Frontier Strategy Group 7.5 7.8 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 7.6 8.3 7.7 9.1India Ratings and Research 5.9 - 7.1 -ING - - - -JPMorgan 5.5 - - -Kotak Securities - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -NCAER - - - -Nomura 7.4 8.6 7.5 10.0Oxford Economics 7.1 7.0 5.5 7.4Société Générale 6.7 6.7 6.1 7.7Standard Chartered - - - -UBS - - - -United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 4.0 6.2 3.3 5.0Maximum 8.2 9.0 7.7 10.0Median 7.0 7.5 6.0 7.8Consensus 6.8 7.6 5.8 7.8History30 days ago 6.5 7.1 6.1 7.660 days ago 6.3 6.8 6.5 7.090 days ago 5.9 6.7 6.5 7.1

Consumption variation in %

Investment variation in %

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Consumption and Investment



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

13 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts

-4.5

-4.3

-4.1

-3.9

-3.7

-3.5


2015/16 2016/17

12 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015


11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts

4

5

6

7

8


2015/16 2016/17

10 | Industry | variation in %

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz - - -4.4 -4.2ANZ - - - -BBVA Research 5.0 6.0 - -Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch - - -4.0 -3.0Capital Economics - - - -CII 3.0 - -3.6 -Citigroup Global Mkts 7.2 8.2 - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 6.5 7.5 -4.4 -3.7Crisil - - -3.9 -3.6DBS Bank 6.3 7.0 -3.9 -3.5Deutsche Bank 5.7 5.1 -3.9 -3.8EIU 3.9 6.1 -4.1 -3.9Frontier Strategy Group 5.5 7.5 - -Goldman Sachs - - -4.5 -4.5HSBC 6.7 7.7 -3.9 -3.5India Ratings and Research 6.5 - -3.9 -ING - - - -JPMorgan - - -3.6 -Kotak Securities - - -3.9 -3.5Morgan Stanley - - - -NCAER - - - -Nomura - - -3.9 -3.5Oxford Economics 4.8 7.1 -4.4 -4.0Société Générale - - -4.1 -3.7Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 7.1 8.0 -3.9 -3.5United Overseas Bank - - -4.1 -3.7SummaryMinimum 3.0 5.1 -4.5 -4.5Maximum 7.2 8.2 -3.6 -3.0Median 6.0 7.3 -3.9 -3.7Consensus 5.7 7.0 -4.0 -3.7History30 days ago 4.9 6.3 -4.0 -3.660 days ago 5.2 5.9 -4.0 -3.690 days ago 5.1 6.0 -4.0 -3.6

Industry Fiscal Balance variation in % % of GDP

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) and the Ministry of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: MOSPI.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2015/16 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance.13 Central government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015/16 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Industry and Fiscal Balance



April 2015

Monetary Sector | Inflation

17 | WPI | 2000 - 2019 | in %

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2005 2010 2015


16 | CPI Inflation 2016/17 | evol of fcst

4

5

6

7

8



15 | CPI Inflation 2015/16 | evol of fcst

4

6

8

10



14 | CPI | 2000 - 2019 | in %

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz 5.0 4.7 - -ANZ 5.6 6.4 - -BBVA Research 6.0 5.9 - -Berenberg 7.3 7.5 - -BofA Merrill Lynch 5.8 6.0 3.0 5.0Capital Economics 5.5 5.5 - -CII 5.6 - 1.5 -Citigroup Global Mkts 5.0 5.0 - -Credit Agricole 6.5 6.2 - -Credit Suisse 5.4 5.8 - -Crisil 5.8 5.0 - -DBS Bank 5.6 5.8 - -Deutsche Bank 5.0 5.7 - -EIU 5.8 6.1 2.7 5.2Frontier Strategy Group 6.5 6.0 - -Goldman Sachs 5.3 6.1 - -HSBC 5.4 5.8 2.8 4.5India Ratings and Research 6.0 - 2.8 -ING 5.3 5.0 - -JPMorgan 5.4 - 1.1 -Kotak Securities 5.0 - -0.2 -Morgan Stanley 5.0 5.0 - -NCAER - - 1.9 -Nomura 5.3 5.5 - -Oxford Economics 5.5 5.9 2.2 5.1Société Générale 5.5 5.0 0.3 2.7Standard Chartered 5.4 5.0 - -UBS 5.3 5.0 - -United Overseas Bank 6.5 5.8 - -SummaryMinimum 5.0 4.7 -0.2 2.7Maximum 7.3 7.5 3.0 5.2Median 5.5 5.8 2.0 5.0Consensus 5.6 5.7 1.8 4.5History30 days ago 5.8 5.8 2.0 4.460 days ago 5.9 5.8 3.1 4.090 days ago 6.3 6.1 4.5 4.3

Consumer Pricesvariation in %

Wholesale Pricesvariation in %

Notes and sourcesAll annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.15 CPI inflation, evolution of 2015/16 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 CPI inflation, evolution of 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, annual average variation of wholesale price index (WPI) in %.

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index and wholesale price index in %



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.75 > 7.75

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

18 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

20 | Int. Rate 2015/16 | evol of fcst

19 | Interest Rate | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %

21 | Int. Rate 2016/17 | evol of fcst

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 Interest rate, RBI Repurchasing Rate in % (eop).19 Quarterly interest rate, RBI Repurchasing Rate in % (eop).20 Interest rate, evolution of 2015/16 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Interest rate, evolution of 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2015/16 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17Allianz - -ANZ 7.00 7.00BBVA Research 7.00 6.50Berenberg - -BofA Merrill Lynch 7.25 6.75Capital Economics 7.00 -CII 6.75 -Citigroup Global Mkts 7.00 7.00Credit Agricole 7.25 -Credit Suisse 7.25 7.25Crisil - -DBS Bank - -Deutsche Bank 7.00 -EIU - -Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 7.50 7.50HSBC 7.25 7.25India Ratings and Research - -ING 7.25 7.25JPMorgan 7.25 -Kotak Securities 7.00 -Morgan Stanley 6.50 -NCAER - -Nomura 7.50 7.50Oxford Economics - -Société Générale 7.00 7.00Standard Chartered 7.00 -UBS 6.75 6.00United Overseas Bank 7.50 -SummaryMinimum 6.50 6.00Maximum 7.50 7.50Median 7.00 7.00Consensus 7.10 7.00History30 days ago 7.08 6.9460 days ago 7.25 6.8890 days ago 7.40 7.13

22 | Interest Rate 2015/16 | Panelist Distribution

Interest Rate | RBI Repurchase Rate

5

6

7

8

9



4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2005 2010 2015

5

6

7

8

9



6

7

8

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 55.0 57.0 59.0 61.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 > 69.0

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

23 | Exchange Rate | INR per USD

25 | INR per USD 2015/16 | evol of fcst

24 | Exchange Rate | INR per USD

26 | INR per USD 2016/17 | evol of fcst

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.23 Exchange rate, INR per USD (eop).24 Quarterly exchange rate, INR per USD (eop).25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015/16 forecast during the last 18 months.26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016/17 forecast during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015/16 forecasts. Concentration of panelists

in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17Allianz 61.0 59.0ANZ 64.3 -BBVA Research 61.5 61.5Berenberg - -BofA Merrill Lynch 63.0 62.0Capital Economics 57.0 -CII - -Citigroup Global Mkts 64.1 64.7Credit Agricole 65.5 -Credit Suisse 63.5 61.0Crisil 62.0 -DBS Bank 66.7 -Deutsche Bank 64.0 -EIU 61.3 57.7Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 63.0 64.5HSBC 64.0 65.0India Ratings and Research 63.0 -ING 63.5 63.5JPMorgan 65.0 -Kotak Securities 64.0 64.0Morgan Stanley 62.2 62.0NCAER - -Nomura 59.7 60.9Oxford Economics 64.3 66.3Société Générale 59.0 60.5Standard Chartered 61.5 -UBS 63.0 65.0United Overseas Bank 65.0 -SummaryMinimum 57.0 57.7Maximum 66.7 66.3Median 63.0 62.0Consensus 62.8 62.5History30 days ago 62.4 62.360 days ago 62.4 62.290 days ago 61.7 61.6

27 | INR per USD 2015/16 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | INR per USD

50

60

70

80



35

45

55

65

2000 2005 2010 2015

50

60

70

80



50

55

60

65

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

-250

-200

-150

-100


2015/16 2016/17

31 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

-400

0

400

800

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceImportsExports

30 | Trade Balance | USD bn

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015


28 | Current Account | % of GDP

-4

-3

-2

-1


2015/16 2016/17

29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

Current Account and Trade Balance

Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz -1.4 -1.5 -101 -111ANZ -0.9 -2.2 - -BBVA Research -1.1 -1.9 -143 -166Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch -0.7 -0.7 -136 -143Capital Economics -2.0 - - -CII - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts -0.2 -0.8 -117 -136Credit Agricole -3.0 -3.0 - -Credit Suisse -1.7 -2.1 - -Crisil -1.1 - -144 -DBS Bank -1.4 -1.5 -150 -160Deutsche Bank -1.2 -1.6 -149 -174EIU -1.3 -1.8 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs -0.8 -1.7 - -HSBC -0.6 -1.5 -164 -190India Ratings and Research -2.2 - -182 -ING - - - -JPMorgan -0.5 - -134 -Kotak Securities -0.3 - -132 -Morgan Stanley -2.1 -2.5 - -NCAER -0.9 - - -Nomura -1.0 -1.7 - -Oxford Economics -0.9 -1.4 -126 -131Société Générale -1.2 -1.6 - -Standard Chartered -1.1 -1.5 - -UBS 0.5 0.4 -91 -100United Overseas Bank -1.3 -1.1 - -SummaryMinimum -3.0 -3.0 -182 -190Maximum 0.5 0.4 -91 -100Median -1.1 -1.6 -136 -143Consensus -1.1 -1.6 -136 -146History30 days ago -1.2 -1.6 -143 -14760 days ago -1.5 -1.8 -148 -15890 days ago -1.7 -1.9 -148 -160

Current Account Trade Balance% of GDP USD bn

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.28 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: RBI.29 Current account balance, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry. 31 Trade balance, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz 350 375 451 486ANZ - - - -BBVA Research 353 390 495 556Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 355 411 490 554Capital Economics - - - -CII - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 343 365 460 502Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -Crisil 343 - 487 -DBS Bank 330 340 480 500Deutsche Bank 339 361 488 536EIU - - - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 341 376 505 566India Ratings and Research 370 - 552 -ING - - - -JPMorgan 329 - 463 -Kotak Securities 322 - 454 -Morgan Stanley - - - -NCAER - - - -Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 344 381 470 512Société Générale - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 319 338 410 439United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 319 338 410 439Maximum 370 411 552 566Median 343 375 480 512Consensus 341 371 477 517History30 days ago 347 381 491 52860 days ago 354 384 502 54290 days ago 359 392 508 552

Exports ImportsUSD bn USD bn

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.32 Exports, annual variation in %. 33 Exports, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.34 Imports, annual variation in %. 35 Imports, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.

400

500

600

700


2015/16 2016/17

35 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015


34 | Imports | variation in %

-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015


32 | Exports | variation in %

340

380

420

460


2015/16 2016/17

33 | Exports | evolution of fcst



April 2015

External Sector | Additional forecasts

450

500

550

600


2015/16 2016/17

39 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015

India

Asia (ex Japan)

38 | External Debt | % of GDP

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


36 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

300

350

400

450


2015/16 2016/17

37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst

International Reserves and External Debt

Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz 330 345 515 550ANZ - - - -BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 425 496 460 488Capital Economics - - - -CII - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 401 464 471 486Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 365 390 489 519Crisil - - - -DBS Bank 360 380 - -Deutsche Bank 379 408 526 589EIU 320 357 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 376 408 475 500India Ratings and Research - - - -ING - - - -JPMorgan - - 533 -Kotak Securities - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -NCAER - - - -Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 354 389 460 479Société Générale - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS - - 487 517United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 320 345 460 479Maximum 425 496 533 589Median 365 390 487 509Consensus 368 404 491 516History30 days ago 364 413 494 51960 days ago 359 383 494 51290 days ago 362 375 491 543

Int. Reserves External DebtUSD bn USD bn

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.36 International reserves, months of imports. 37 International reserves, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.38 External debt as % of GDP. 39 External debt, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

India in the Region

Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia

Fact Sheet

India12.4%

China60.6%

Korea7.9%

Indonesia5.0%

Taiwan3.1%

Other11.0%

India37.8%

China41.1%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Vietnam2.7% Other

7.8%

Switzerland6.2% U.S.A.

5.1%

EU-2711.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

15.8%

China10.7%

LatAm5.6%

Other45.4%

U.S.A.12.2%

EU-2716.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan

17.7%China5.0%

Other48.3%

Other8.5%

Manufact. Products44.2%

Ores & Metals6.0%

Mineral Fuels41.4%

Other7.7%

Manufact. Products63.0%

Mineral Fuels19.1%

Food10.2%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Huge domestic market • Excessive bureaucracy• Protectionist trade policy• Weak infrastructure

• High catch-up growth potential..

• Skilled labor force in key industries, particularly software

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 15,874Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 23,916Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 1,052Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 865Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3,450CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 1,831

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa3 StableS&P: BBB- StableFitch Ratings: BBB- Stable

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 2.3Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 70.8Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 15.1Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 1.2

Transportation (2013) Airports: 352Railways (km): 63,974Roadways (km): 4,689,842Waterways (km): 14,500Chief Ports: Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata

Official name: Republic of IndiaCapital: New Delhi (22.7 m)Other cities: Greater Mumbai (19.7 m)

Kolkata (14.4 m)Bangalore (8.6m)

Area (km2): 3,287,263Population (million, 2014 est.): 1,260Population density (per km2, 2014 est.): 383.2Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.3Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 67.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2006): 37.2Language: Hindi, English and

21 other official languagesMeasures: Metric systemCalendar: Year begins on 21 or

22 March of Gregorian calendarTime: GMT+5.30

Prime Minister: Narendra ModiLast elections: 7 April - 12 May 2014Next elections: 2019Central Bank Governor: Raghuram Rajan

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event24 March China March HSBC Manufacturing PMI24 March Vietnam March Consumer Prices (**)25 March Korea Q4 2014 National Accounts25 March Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**)26 March Korea March Consumer Confidence26 March Philippines Central Bank Meeting28 March Vietnam Q1 2015 National Accounts (**)28 March Vietnam March Industrial Production (**)30 March Korea April Business Confidence31 March Hong Kong February Retail Sales31 March Korea February Industrial Production31 March New Zealand March Business Confidence31 March Thailand February Manufacturing Production31 March Thailand February Merchandise Trade1 April China March Manufacturing PMI1 April Indonesia March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Indonesia March Consumer Prices1 April Korea March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Korea March Consumer Prices1 April Taiwan March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Vietnam March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Hong Kong March HSBC PMI2 April India March HSBC Manufacturing PMI2 April Malaysia March Consumer Prices2 April Singapore March SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (**)2 April Thailand March Consumer Prices3 April Malaysia Febuary Merchandise Trade6 April India March HSBC Services PMI7 April Australia February Retail Sales7 April Australia Central Bank Meeting7 April India Central Bank Meeting7 April Philippines March Consumer Prices7 April Singapore Q1 2015 National Accounts (**)8 April Philippines February Exports8 April Taiwan March Merchandise Trade8 April Taiwan March Consumer Prices9 April Australia March Unemployment9 April China March Merchandise Trade (**)9 April Korea Central Bank Meeting10 April Australia April Consumer Confidence (**)10 April China March Consumer Prices10 April China March Producer Prices10 April China March New Yuan loans (**)

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event10 April China March Money Supply (M2) (**)10 April India February Industrial Production10 April India March Consumer Prices10 April Malaysia Febuary Industrial Production10 April Singapore Central Bank Meeting (**)14 April India March Wholesale Prices14 April Indonesia Central Bank Meeting14 April Indonesia February Retail Sales (**)15 April China Q1 2015 National Accounts15 April China March Industrial Production15 April China March Retail Sales15 April China March Fixed Asset Investment15 April Indonesia March Merchandise Trade15 April Philippines February OFW Remittances 17 April India March Merchandise Trade (**)17 April Singapore March Merchandise Trade 18 April China March Property Prices20 April Korea March Merchandise Trade20 April New Zealand April Business Confidence (**)20 April New Zealand Q1 2015 Consumer Prices21 April Hong Kong March Consumer Prices22 April Australia Q1 2015 Consumer Prices23 April China April HSBC Manufacturing PMI23 April Korea Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)23 April Singapore March Consumer Prices23 April Taiwan March Industrial Production24 April Korea April Consumer Confidence24 April Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**)25 April Vietnam April Consumer Prices (**)

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:

Asia (16 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asia ex-Japan (15 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 10 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

© Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

ASIA PACIFIC |

CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |

EASTERN EUROPE|

EURO AREA |

LATIN AMERICA|

MAJOR ECONOMIES |

MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|

NORDIC ECONOMIES|

Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED

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ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS

REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt

EXTERNAL SECTORCurrent Account Trade BalanceExportsImportsInternational ReservesExternal Debt

MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTORMoneyInflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate

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CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · 2015-12-10 · Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley...

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Transcript of CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · 2015-12-10 · Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley...