CONNECTING THE UNCONNECTED THROUGH MEGACONSTELLATIONS

TELECOMS WORLD MIDDLE EAST 2018

DUBAI - 18 SEPTEMBER 2018

Christian von der Ropp

Christian von der RoppStuttgart, GermanyIndependent Telecoms Consultant

Director Terrestrial NetworksAdvising stakeholders to

connect unserved and

underserved communities.

About

economic opportunity better education better healthcare efficient disaster relief

At AHUMANRIGHT we believe that access to information, and the Internet, should be a human right.

We spread that message, and work to connect the disconnected people.

Internet Access a Human Right?

Challenges of Geostationary Orbit

Today 99% of global satellite communication

runs via satellites in geostationary orbit (GEO)

High launch costs due toenergy required to reach GEO

(~58MJ/kg)

High latency due to signaltravelling 2×35,786km

RTD >600ms

Signal strength required tobridge distance dictates heavy

satellites with large solar arrays

(average mass 2016: >4000kg)

Limited Coverage by GEO Satellites

● Power budget constraints of GEO satellites paired with the great

transmit power required to bridge the distance to Earth means

spot beams must be limited to certain areas

● Satellite operators focus coverage to more densely populated

areas with higher bandwidth demand and revenue opportunities,

leaving those most in need under- or even unserved.

Internet Adoption 2016

© World Bank

835 million peoplein Africa

2.2 billion peoplein Asia

3.6 billion people lack Internet access

● GEO satellites operating in the same

frequency band (virtually unavoidable)

must observe a spacing of 2 degrees

(1470km of orbital extent per slot) to

avoid interference

● Obtaining rights to an orbital slot to

accommodate a new satellite over

populated regions is impossible

● Capacity can only be increased by

replacing older satellites by more

efficient ones as all relevant slots are

taken

GEO Belt is Congested

Why GEO? Basics of Orbital Mechanics

● Satellites are subject to gravitational pull which

must be overcome to avoid re-entry

● Propulsion not viable due to amount of

required fuel reserves (usual design lifetime of

GEO satellites is 15 years)

● Simple solution is making use of inertia - the

resistance, of any physical object, to any

change in its velocity.

● Give impulse to satellite (by launch vehicle)

● A balance between satellite’s velocity and

gravitational pull results in a stable orbit

Why GEO? Basics of Radio Communications

● In terrestrial radio communications signals can

be reflected and scattered by objects such as

buildings or the topography – a direct line of

sight between transmitter and receiver is not

necessarily required

● For a satellite link however a direct

unobstructed line of sight is required due to

the high frequency bands used for broadband

communications paired with the low signal

strength resulting from attenuation in

atmosphere

e ec on ca e in

l at o a a on

nobst cted

ine o i t

Difference between satellite-based andterrestrial radio communications

Why GEO? Basics of Radio Communications

● Because of the low signal strength parabolic

reflectors are required which bundle the signal

and focus it on the feed horn

● Imagine what would happen if the satellite

would be moving constantly…

Why GEO? Because it Doesn‘t Move (seemingly)

● Due to the impracticability of constantly adjusting

satellite dishes and out of the need to permanently

receive a signal satellites have traditionally been put

in an o bit w e e t ey move sync ono s to Ea t ’s

daily rotation.

● An orbit where a satellite circles Earth

synchronously with the day-night-rotation is called

geosynchronous or geostationary orbit (simplified).

● A geostationary satellite maintains a fixed position

in the sky as observed from Earth.

● Dictated by the laws of physics a satellite in

geostationary orbit must be located at an altitude of

35,786km and travel with an orbital velocity of

3.07km/s or 11,600km/h.

35,786km

3.07km/s

Implications for Lower Orbits

● Geostationary satellites are located at an altitude of

35,786km and travel with an orbital velocity of

3.07km/s or 11,600km/h.

● Satellites in lower orbits are exposed to stronger

gravitational pull and hence need a higher orbital

velocity to offset the earlier

● The lower the orbit, the higher the speed, the less

time required to circle Earth

● = Kepler’s Second Law:

● A line joining a planet [satellite] and the Sun [Earth]

sweeps out equal areas during equal intervals of

time.

GEO vs. LEO

Using satellites in Low-Earth Orbit would yield

many benefits over Geostationary Orbit…

Lower launch costs due tolower altitude and less cosmic

radiation

Low latency due to signaltravelling 1/30 of distance

RTD ~50ms vs >600ms

Shoter distance means weakersignal required, hence lesspower consumption and

smaller satellites(~150kg)

GEO vs. LEO

…but create numerous issues

Satellites would be movingconstantly at high speed

(100min per orbit, visible foronly 10min)

= many satellites and trackingantennas required

Each satellite could only covera fraction of Ea t ‘s surface

= many satellites and numerous gateways required

Satellites would causeinterference to geostationarysatellites while crossing the

equatorial belt= interference mitigation

First Proposals for LEO Constellations in the 1990s

● In 1994 Teledesic started working on a LEO constellation of 840 satellites providing 720Mbps each

● Backed by cellular pioneer Craig McCaw, Bill Gates and Saudi prince Alwaleed bin Talal

● Cost of $9bn and dot-com crash in 2000 led to failure of the project

…some LEO Constellations materialized though

● Iridium (1998) and Globalstar (1999) both launched LEO constellations which are still operational

● However the low frequency bands used (L- & S-band) limited offering to narrow band communications (<10kbps)

● Both filed for bankruptcy (Iridium in 1999, Globalstar in 2004) and Globalstar is still financially troubled

● Emergence of private space enterprise and competition means satellites are much cheaper to build and

launch (SpaceX launch costs ~ $65m vs. A‘s $422m price tag)

● Continued price pressure coming from new ventures entering the launch market (Rocket Lab, Blue Origin,

Virgin Galactic etc.)

● Technological advancement has led to miniaturization of satellites (cubesats, small satellites) resulting in

lower size, weight and costs for each satellite

● Cellular technology can be adapted to handle the complexity of the thousands of spotbeams and the

frequent handovers of millions of terminals between the same

● Efficient line production of satellites instead of manual assembly in laboratory environment

● Market has grown massively as Internet access is considered a necessity today

What has changed since the 1990s?

The Participants in the Megaconstellation Race

„STARLINK“

…and potentially further entrants such as Boeing (perhaps with A le‘s backing?) or Facebook („At ena“ project) and especially from China or perhaps a Chinese-Russian JV is expected

● Very high number of satellites (>100)

● global coverage

● including polar coverage

● very high capacity (multi-Gbps)

● High frequency re-use as in High-

Throughput Satellites

● low latency (<50ms)

● technological complexity

● new manufacturing methods

Defintion of „Megaconstellations“

Connect everbody and everything

● Cellular backhaul

● Aircraft

● Ships

● Oil rigs

● Mining facilities

● Emergency vehicles

● Schools, hospitals and public buildings in the

developing world

● Enterprises (especially LeoSat)

Market for Megaconstellations

Overview of Megaconstellations

„STARLINK“

Number of satellites 882 (+2,000) 112, up to 512 78-108 4,425

Altitude 1,200km (+8,000km) 1,000km/1,248km 1,430km 1,200km

Capacity per satellite(fwd only)

7.2Gbps n/a 1.6-5.2Gbps 10Gbps

First prototype launch

late 2018/early 2019 12 January 2018 no protoypes planned 22 February 2018

Completion of initial constellation

2022 2022 2022 2022

Beam design fixed (global) steerable spotbeams steerable spotbeams fixed (global)

Frequency band (userbeams)

Ku (+Ka, V & E) Ka Ka Ku+Ka

Overview of Megaconstellations

„STARLINK“

Cost per satellite $700k-$900k n/a n/a n/a

Cost of initial constellation

$6bn n/a $3.6bn $10bn

Equity $1.7bn in equity n/a $100m (Series A) n/a

Other Funding Remainder to befilled by Coface (French export bank)

n/a $1bn in revenuecommtiments

n/a

Backers Softbank, Airbus, MDA, Bharti, GrupoSalinas, Intelsat, Hughes, Coca-Cola, Qualcomm, Virgin

n/a JSAT, Hispasat n/a

Small Satellites vs. GEO Satellites

Dimensions 1m³ ~ 100m³

Weight 150-200kg >4,000kg

Design Liftime 5-7 years 15+ years

Launch cost ~$ 250,000 >$ 50,000,000

Cost per satellite $500,000-$700,000 $290,000,000 (typically)

● OneWeb Satellites (JV with Airbus) is building

$85 million factory in Exploration Park, Florida

enabling efficient line production of small

satellites

● Peak production capacity of 15 satellites per

week targeted

● Near the Kennedy Space Center, Florida

(SpaceX and ULA launch facilities)

● Contract manufacturing for third parties

planned

Mass Production of Satellites

● Launching hundreds or even thousands of

satellites will be a massive undertaking

requiring dozens of separate launches

● Shorter design lifetime will require frequent

replacments of satellites starting just a few

years after completion of initial constellation

● SpaceX as launch provider has the advantage of

access to own rockets

● OneWeb alone will need at least 25 Russian

Soyuz-11 rockets to launch every 3 week for

the first 882 satellites (36 per launch)

Launch Capacity & Satellite Replacements

● Due to the constant movement (relative to Earth) of LEO satellites tracking

antennas are imperative

● Such will have to track the serving satellite and establish a link to the next

satellite before the earlier goes out of range in order to enable gapless hand

overs for continous connectivity

● Existing mechanical tracking antennas are large (unsuitable for many

applications such as moving vehicles) and prohibitively expensive (~ $200k)

● Flat panel antennas based on phased-array technology and metamaterials

are under development by:

● Kymeta (JV with Sharp for production on LCD TV lines)

● Phasor

● Isotropic Systems (founded by former O3b staff)

● Alcana Systems (backed by Merck AG, Germany)

● Performance and interference (side-lobing) still a problem

● Will they reach a price point allowing mass adoption?

Tracking Antennas

Inter-Satellite Links

Satellites too far from nextgateway cannot provide service

Without ISLs

• OneWeb‘s first generationof satellites will only be ableto provide service while in line-of-sight with a gateway

• Once outside a ateway‘sreach satellites won‘tprovide coverage

With ISLs

• Satellites interconnected byISLs can keep forwardingtraffic to adjacent satellitesuntil a satellite with a gateway link is reached

• One satellite connected to a gateway could support entire constellation(although with a bandwidthbottleneck and a singlepoint of failure)

Traffic is routed in orbit to a satellite with gateway link

● OneWeb will require 50-60 gateways globally to

enable global coverage

● Constellations with ISLs will – in theory - need less

gateways because traffic can be routed in orbit.

● Especially LeoSat highlight the capability to route

traffic from door to door without touching the ground

– independence from terrestrial infrastructure means

less vunerability to outages and interception

● However many regulators will require operation of

national gateways for control and intercept purposes

● Latency requirements of MNOs and enterprises (cloud)

might require more regional gateways than anticipated

Implications for Ground Segment

● Except for OneWeb all Megaconstellations will support

inter-satellite links using optical laser links and allow in-

orbit routing

● speed of light

● in vacuum: 299,792,458 m/s

● In fibre: 204,190,477 m/s

● traffic routed in low-Earth orbit using inter-satellite links

will have substantial latency advantage over meandering

submarine cables on most intercontinental routes

● New York - Tokyo: 100ms vs. 135ms

● HFT will switch to satellite

Inter-connected Megaconstellations will cut latency

● ITU assigns orbital slots but operators are still

subject to approval of every single national

regulator allowing the use on the ground

● ITU framework is designed for GEO and has

no provisions for spectrum sharing

● Instead frequency rights are assigned on first-

come first-served basis; whoever launches

first would block huge amounts of spectrum

● Any later market entrant is obliged to avoid

interference – extremely challenging as

coverage would be impaired

Regulatory Issues

● Market access to some nations will be difficult

to impossible (Russia already denied approval

to OneWeb)

● Governments might oppose architecture

(independence from terrestrial infrastructure)

requiring ability to intercept, filter or have a

kill-switch to disable service (e.g. Iraq which

disables Internet during school exams period)

● FCC requires any Megaconstellation to launch

half of constellation within six years from

approval or license might be revoked

Hystery

Risk of Interference with GEO

While crossing the equatorial belt LEO satellites can potentially interfere with GEO

satellites; Mitigation technologies and potentially fall back to GEO required;

● The Kessler syndrome (also called the Kessler effect of

collisional cascading), proposed by the NASA scientist Donald J.

Kessler

● Objects in orbit travel with extremely high speeds relative to

each other (several tens of thousands km/h) – impacts fatal!

● It is a scenario in which the density of objects in low-Earth orbit

(LEO) is high enough that collisions between objects could

cause a cascade where each collision generates space debris

that increases the likelihood of further collisions

● One implication is that the distribution of debris in orbit could

render space activities and the use of satellites in specific

orbital ranges infeasible for many generations

Fear from the Kessler Syndrome

● Euroconsult expects about 7,000 new smallsats to be

launched over the next 10 years,

● six-fold increase from the 1,200 units launched over the

past decade

● Smallsat-dedicated launch services are expected to

generate $16 billion during the next ten years.

● Launch and manufacturing of the 7,000 smallsats valued

at $38 billion = quintupling decade-to-decade.

● By 2022, an average of 580 smallsats will be launched

every year

● This compares to an annual average of 190 satellites

launched over the past five years

● Average to jump to 850 satellites per year on subsequent

years up to 2027 because of the deployment of one mega

constellation

Low-Earth Orbit to be Populated

● Collision avoidance will be of greatest importance to avoid Kessler Syndrome

● Active collision avoidance will require propulsion which currently is not planned

on any Megaconstellation

● Though OneWeb plans drag device (kind of sail) that can initiate and accelerate

deorbiting process after lifetime ends

● Passive collission avoidance to be enabled by LeoLabs, a company planning a

ground-based radar system tracking objects in orbit (raised $13m in July 2018,

backed by Airbus)

● Current deorbit requirement for satellite operators in the US is 25 year post-

mission or 30 year after launch – too long many industry experts say

Space Debris Mitigation

● Northern Sky Research (NSR) expects that anywhere from

30 to ~5,000 LEO satellites can possibly launch in the next

decade.

● NSR further estimates that if all constellations do go ahead

as planned, we are looking at capacity of the order of 20-

30 Terabits coming online in the next decade, which is

orders of magnitude higher than the 2.5 Terabits of

GEO/MEO HTS capacity that NSR expects by 2023.

● Even if the industry remains divided on whether all this

capacity constitutes a “bubble”, it remains feasible that 20-

30 Terabits of capacity could be launched by 2020.

● NSR would wager about 2 or 3 Megaconstellations

actually launch.

Industry Expectations

● GEO satellite orders are in sharp decline

● NSR: Non-GEO satellites to dominate supply, adding over 25

Tbps in next decade (18 September 2018)

● Maxar considering shuting down GEO business (July 2018)

● Boeing acquires Millennium Space Systems, a provider of

agile, small-satellite solution (July 2018)

● Industry shifting focus to small satellites to be launched in

LEO reflects confidence in Megaconstellations actually

materializing

● Defense and intelligence sector also preferring the agility and

lexibility o small satellites (e. . DA A’s Black Jack

programme)

Industry ExpectationsGeostationary satellites order per year

"I think this is a critical time in the history of humanity,

because for the first time people are going to be coming

together from every corner of the world and be able to

engage in direct conversation with each other. [...]

In the next 5, 10 to 20 years the rest of the world is going to

come online. The next two billion people are going to come

online. For the first time we are going to hear from people,

we have not heard from before."

Jimmy WalesWikipedia Founder

photo: © VGrigas (WMF) (CC-BY-SA-3.0)

THANK YOUFOR YOUR ATTENTION

Christian von der Roppchristian@ahumanright.org

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