Connecticut Housing Market€¦ · Connecticut Housing Market . August 2019 Planning, ... (JCHS)...

2019

Andrew Bolger, Research Analyst

Planning, Research & Evaluation Department

August 2019

Connecticut Housing Market Snapshot

August 2019 Planning, Research, & Evaluation of 19

Table of Contents

Summary of Housing Trends ………………………………..……………………………………………………………………3

Housing Type and Tenure …………………..………………………………………………………………………………….….4

Vacancy…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………….8

Aging Housing Stock ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..….9

Single Family Home Sale Volume……………..………………………………………………………………………………10

Single Family Home Sale Price………………………………………………………..………………………………………..11

House Price Index – CT vs New England & US ………………..…………………………………………….12

Foreclosures ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…13

Housing Construction………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……14

Household Growth………………………………………………………………………………………………………..15

Affordability …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….16

Mortgage Originations..………………..…………………………………………………………………………………………18

Generational Trends…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………19


Summary of Connecticut’s Housing Trends

In June of 2019, Harvard’ Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) released its annual State of the

Nation’s Housing Report detailing the shortage of affordable housing options across the county. The

report details trends in affordability, tenure, housing supply and construction, sales, home values,

population and household formation, and other challengers in the housing market. Specifically the

report found that construction rates are lagging relative to household growth, homeownership rates

and affordability are on the rise, and rental rates and cost burdens increased.

Connecticut in many ways resembles national trends but does diverge in some notable areas.

Connecticut’s housing market in 2018 can generally be characterized by a continued recovery from the

Great Recession of 2008 to 2010. Home prices and sales volume have yet to return to their pre-2008

levels and while vacancy rates are low, new housing construction has not kept pace with other New

England states and the U.S. generally.

According to latest American Community Survey (ACS) estimates, the homeownership rate in

Connecticut is 66.59 percent. The owner and rental vacancy rates are 1.5 and 6.8 percent respectively.

The median age of the home in Connecticut was built in 1964 and 66.3 percent of the stock is made up

of one unit attached and detached units. Single family homes sales, according to the Warren Group,

have rebounded from their low point in 2011, as nearly 51,000 homes were sold in 2018. Home sale

prices remained steady in 2018, with the median home selling for $229,500. Foreclosures are also down

from their peak levels. In 2018, there were 3,926 foreclosure deeds in Connecticut. Affordability remains

a problem in the state as 29.45 percent of owners and 52.29 or rental households pay more than 30

percent of their income on housing costs. Finally, according to the most recent available Home

Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, in 2017 Connecticut saw $10.63 billion in mortgage originations

for home purchase, up from $9.7 billion in the prior year.

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/state-nations-housing-2019

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/state-nations-housing-2019


Housing Unit Type and Tenure

Like much of the U.S. and New England, single family homes make up the majority of the housing stock

in Connecticut. According to the 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS) estimates, one unit

attached and detached units make up 66.3 percent of the total housing stock compared to 69.8 percent

nationwide. Compared to other states in the New England Region, Connecticut had more than

Massachusetts and Rhode Island but slightly less than New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine.

Two, three and four, and five to nine unit structures make up 7.7, 8.04, and 5.3 percent of the stock

respectively. Large multifamily structures with ten or more units make up 12 percent of Connecticut’s

total housing units while mobile homes are only 0.71 percent the housing units. Litchfield County ranked

number one in the percentage of single unit housing structures while New Haven County had the least

out the total housing stock.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

United States Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut NewHampshire

Vermont Maine

Source: American Community survey, 5 Year estimates, 2013-2017

Housing Unit Types (Connecticut, New England, and U.S.)

1 Unit 2 Units 3 or 4 Units 5 to 9 Units 10 or More Units Mobile Home

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

New HavenCounty

HartfordCounty

FairfieldCounty

New LondonCounty

WindhamCounty

TollandCounty

MiddlesexCounty

LitchfieldCounty

Source: American Community Survery, 5 Year estimates, 2013-2017

Housing Unit Type - Connecticut Counties

1 Unit 2 Units 3 or 4 Units 5 to 9 Units 10 or More Units Mobile Home


Connecticut, like the country at large, is a majority owner state. Connecticut’s ownership rate, according

to the 2013-2017 ACS, is 66.59 percent which is higher than the national rate of 63.8 percent. In New

England, Rhode Island had the lowest ownership rate of 60.02 percent while Maine had the highest rate

at 72.04 percent.

In Connecticut, New Haven County has the lowest ownership rate at 62.3 percent while Litchfield

County has the highest rate at 76.8 percent. At the municipal level, the cities of Hartford, New Haven,

and New London have the lowest ownership rates at 24, 28, and 37 percent respectively. The towns of

Harwinton, Union, and Weston have the highest ownership rates at 96, 97, and 96 percent respectively.

63.82% 60.02% 62.36% 66.59% 70.52% 70.68% 72.04%

36.18% 39.98% 37.64% 33.41% 29.48% 29.32% 27.96%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

United States Rhode Island Massachusetts Connecticut Vermont New Hampshire Maine

Source: American Community Survey, 5 Year Estimates, 2013-2017

Housing Tenure (Connecticut, New England, and U.S.)

Owner occupied Renter occupied

62.3% 64.6% 66.7% 67.7% 69.9% 72.4% 73.7% 76.8%

37.7% 35.4% 33.3% 32.3% 30.1% 27.6% 26.3% 23.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

New Haven Hartford New London Fairfield Windham Tolland Middlesex Litchfield

Source: American Community Survey, 5 year estimates, 2013-2017

Housing Tenure By Connecticut County

Owner Occupied Renter Occupied


After having declined for seven consecutive years from 2010 to 2016, the homeownership rate among

under 35 year olds in Connecticut increased slightly from 32.08 percent to 33.67 percent in 2017.

While there was not a decrease in the number of renter households, Connecticut’s overall rental rate

appeared to have stagnated or even declined in 2017 after having increased year over year during and

after the Great Recession. Connecticut’s rental rate stands at 33.41%.

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

Under 35 35 to 64 64 and older

Ho

meo

wn

ersh

ip R

ate

Source: American Community Survey - 5 Year Estimates

Ownership Rates Among Age Cohorts in Connecticut

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

29.00%

29.50%

30.00%

30.50%

31.00%

31.50%

32.00%

32.50%

33.00%

33.50%

34.00%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Rental Demand in Connecticut

Change in Renter Households Rentership Rate


While Connecticut’s Rental rate appears to be slowing slightly, Connecticut has seen growth in the

number of higher income rental households. Rental households making $75,000 or more now make up

22.5 percent of all rental households in Connecticut, up from 17.6 percent in 2009.

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

100000

105000

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d H

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s


Renter-Occupied Housing Units in Connecticut (Nominal Dollars)

Less Than $15,000 More than $75,000Renter Household Income:


Vacancy

Ownership vacancy rates peaked in Connecticut, New England, and nationwide between 2007 and 2008

as the Great Recession and foreclosure crisis began. Connecticut’s vacancy rate reached 0.9 in 2004 and

jumped to 2.3 in 2007. Since then the states ownership vacancy rate has decreased to 1.5 which is

slightly less than the national rate of 1.6 but tops the New England rates. The decreased vacancy rate

since the height to the Great Recession is an indication of increased demand for housing in the state.

Rental vacancy rates in Connecticut peaked in 2010 at 10.7 percent, slightly higher than the national

peak at 10.2 the year prior. Since that time rental vacancy rates have dropped significantly. In 2017

Connecticut’s rate was slightly less than the national rate at 6.8 percent. Relative to historic trends,

Connecticut’s current rental vacancy rate is quite low indicating a strong rental market.

0.3

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

Vac

ancy

Rat

e

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacany Survey, February 28,2018

Ownership Vacany Rate

United States Connecticut Massachusetts

New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont

Maine

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Vac

ancy

Rat

e

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, February 28, 2018

Rental Vacany Rate

United States Connecticut Maine Massachusetts

New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont


Aging Housing Stock

Like much of New England, Connecticut generally has an older housing stock than the rest of the

country. The median year built in Connecticut according to the 2013-2017 ACS estimates, is 1964

relative to the national median of 1977. In New England, Rhode Island and Massachusetts had slightly

older housing with a median year built at 1960. New Hampshire had the newest housing in the region

with a median year built of 1977, which matches the national estimates.

Only 9 percent of the housing structures in Connecticut were built after the year 2000, relative to 13

percent nationally. Thirty percent of Connecticut’s housing was built between 1970 and 1999, twenty

seven percent between 1940 and 1969, and thirty three percent was built before 1940. Notably, of any

New England state, Connecticut has the highest share of its housing stock built prior to 1940.

13%

7%

8%

9%

15%

16%

18%

43%

31%

34%

30%

46%

41%

43%

18%

31%

36%

27%

20%

19%

26%

26%

31%

22%

33%

20%

25%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

United States

Vermont

Rhode Island

Connecticut

New Hampshire

Massachusetts

Maine

Source: American Community Survey, 5 Year Estimates, 2013-2017

Year Housing Structure Built in Connecticut

2000 or Later 1970 to 1999 1940 to 1969 Pre 1940


Single Family Home Sales Volume

Single family home sales in Connecticut peaked in 2004 with almost 68,000 homes sold that year.

Suffering from the effects of the Great Recession, home sales in Connecticut dropped to just under

31,000 in 2011. Since 2011, total sales in Connecticut have rebounded to about 49,500 in 2017 and

nearly 51,000 in 2018.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Nu

mb

er o

f Sa

les

Source: Warren Group

Number of Single Family Home Sales by Connecticut County

Fairfield Hartford Litchfield Middlesex

New Haven New London Tolland Windham


Single Family Home Values

Between 2001 and 2018, home prices in Connecticut peaked in 2007, just prior to the Great Recession.

In 2007, the median sales price for a single family residential property, including condominiums, in

Connecticut was $259,900 ($319,000 adjusting for inflation) while the median price in 2018 was

$229,500. As seen in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Purchase-Only House Price index (HPI),

Connecticut like the U.S. at large lost significant ground in home prices between the years of 2006 and

2012, and has struggled to keep pace with home price gains in other New England States and the

country overall. As of July, the median sales price in Connecticut in 2019 stands at $223,000.

75

125

175

225

275

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency - Purchase Only HPI

Seasonally Adjusted House Price Index (BY=1991)

CT

US

MA

NH

RI

VT

ME


-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency - Seasonally Adjusted Purchase Only HPI

Quarterly Percentage Change in House Price Index U.S. vs CT

United States Connecticut

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

550000

600000

Med

ian

Sal

es P

rice


Real Median Home Sale Price by Connecticut County

Fairfield Hartford Litchfield

Middlesex New Haven New London

Tolland Windham


Foreclosures

The number of foreclosures in Connecticut spiked in both 2010 and 2014 as Connecticut made its way

through the Great Recession. In 2010 alone, nearly 6,200 homeowners in Connecticut lost their homes

as a result of a foreclosure.

As seen in the map below, the spike in foreclosures was felt disproportionately across the state. Eastern

Connecticut has had the highest foreclosure rates since 2008. Towns like Sterling and Plainfield have had

the highest cumulative foreclosure rate since 2008 at 9.06 and 7.53 percent of the total housing stock in

each town has been foreclosed upon. Urban centers like Waterbury, Meriden, and Bridgeport have also

had high rates of foreclosure, at 7.35, 7.39, and 6.41 respectively. Bridgeport had the highest number of

foreclosures during that time period with 3,652 foreclosures, followed by Waterbury, New Haven, and

Hartford with 3,528, 2,357, and 2,162 respectively.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Qtr

1

Qtr

3

Qtr

1

Qtr

3

Qtr

1

Qtr

3

Qtr

1

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3

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1

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1

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Nu

mb

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f Fo

recl

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res


Foreclosures By Connecticut County

Fairfield Hartford LitchfieldMiddlesex New Haven New LondonTolland Windham

Source: Warren Group Foreclosures & Decennial Census, Total Housing Units, 2010


Housing Construction

Housing construction like many other market indicators, has struggled to recover since the Great

Recession. Since 1960, Connecticut has built an average of about 13,200 units per year, the bulk of

which occurred prior to 1990. Since 1990, an average of 7,700 units have been built per year with a

significant drop off during and after the Great Recession.

New construction permits in Connecticut kept pace with other New England states and the U.S.

generally prior to 2010. Since then, Connecticut has not kept pace with its neighbors in new

construction permits. Connecticut, New England, and U.S. generally saw roughly half the level of new

construction relative to 1995 levels.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Source: Census Building Permits Survey (Annual Since 1959)

New Privately-Owned Housing Units by Type in Connecticut

1 Units 2 to 4 Units

5 or more units Units Historic Average

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Source: Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized, Unadjusted

Building Permits Issued (Indexed to 1995)

US Connecticut New England (RI, MA, VT, NH, ME)


According to the JCHS, housing construction should exceed household growth by 30 percent to

accommodate for demolitions, second homes, and to ensure a stable vacancy rate. While new housing

construction had been slow to recover, so too has new household formation. Between 2011 and 2015,

Connecticut generally either lost or kept the same number of households. In 2016 and 2017, the state

added 2,130 and 7042 households respectively.

-5000

-3000

-1000

1000

3000

5000

7000

Source: DECD Building Permits and Demolitions & ACS 5 Year Estimates

Change in Total Households versus Net New Housing Units in Connecticut

Net New Units (Permits Minus Demolitions) Change in Households


Affordability

According to the housing cost data from the 2013-2017 ACS estimates, 36.77% of Connecticut

households are considered to be cost burdened, meaning they spend more than 30 percent of their

income on housing costs. By tenure, renters in Connecticut are far more likely to be cost burdened than

owners. Statewide, 29.45 percent of owners, both with and without a mortgage, are considered cost

burdened compared to 52.29 percent.

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

Less than 20.0percent

20.0 to 24.9percent

25.0 to 29.9percent

30.0 to 34.9percent

35.0 percent ormore

Source: American Community Suvery, 5 Year Estimates, 2013 - 2017

Gross Housing Costs As a Percentage of Household Income in Connecticut Connecticut

Owners Renters

Source: American Community Survey, 5 Year Estimates, 2013 - 2017


Since 2006, according to the one year ACS estimates, cost burden rates among owners have dropped

significantly. In 2006, 34.8 percent of owners were considered cost burdened while in 2017, just 27.5

were considered burdened. At the same time, little has changed on the rental side. In 2006, 47.6

percent of renters in Connecticut were considered cost burdened while in 2017, that number had

increased to 48.3 percent. Cost burden rates among both renters and owners are down from their peaks

in 2010 and 2011.

27.527.230.030.831.5

34.336.136.736.136.235.434.8

48.348.149.149.749.349.65250.549.448.247.547.6

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006


Renter and Owner Cost Burdens in Connecticut

Owner Cost Burden Renter Cost Burden


Mortgage Originations

According to Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data provided by the Consumer Financial

Protection Bureau (CFPB), mortgage originations total $16.7 billion in 2017. Home purchase originations

reached $10.63 billion, their highest level since 2007. Notably, due to the low interest rate environment

between 2008 and 2015 refinance mortgage made up the majority of all originations in Connecticut. In

2016 home purchase mortgages became the majority of originations for the first time since 2007.

12.52

8.13 6.89 7.05 6.3 7.1 8.56 8.16 8.89 9.7 10.63

0.83

0.660.65 0.54 0.56

0.680.67 0.43

0.640.65

0.52

11.72

10.19

19.8 18.28

15.15 20.8515.01

5.57

8.479.55

5.56

6.346.03

5.044.69

4.45

3.663.98

4.173.85

3.653.99

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: CFPB - Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) 2007-2017 & St. Louis Federal Reserve

CT Single Family Mortgage Originaitons ($ Billions)

Home Purchase Home Improvement Refinance Average 30 Year Fixed Rate


Generational Trends

Connecticut has an older population than the U.S. population generally. According to the most recent

American Community Survey estimates, Connecticut’s median age is 41 compared to a median of 38

nationally. As seen below, Connecticut has a great proportion of Baby Boomers, older Gen-Xs, and

younger millennials. Relative to the U.S. population, Connecticut is lacking in Millennials and younger

Gen-Zs.

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers Silent GI Gen

Source: ACS Population Estimates via IPUMS-USA

Generational Cohorts - United States and Connecticut

US Population CT Population

Connecticut Housing Market€¦ · Connecticut Housing Market . August 2019 Planning, ... (JCHS)...

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