Connected Home Conference Is there an Elephant in the room? Peter Seebacher Thursday 24 th April...
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Transcript of Connected Home Conference Is there an Elephant in the room? Peter Seebacher Thursday 24 th April...
Connected Home Conference
Is there an Elephant in the room?Peter Seebacher
Thursday 24th April 2008
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Global Drivers for Change
Focus is now clearly on the climate
More people having access to high-energy intensity products
Shortage of oil
Costs of energy and water are rising
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Global Response to Climate Change
R&D: Energy-efficient technologies for residential and commercial
Regulation: Building codes, appliance and equipment standards
Market Transformation: Educating homeowners Energy Star), builders and developers about benefits of adopting energy efficient practices and of course pricing....
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Australian Drivers for Change
Focus is now clearly on the climate
Population growth rate is high
Costs of energy and water are rising
Energy intensity is increasing
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Televisions and Pools - BAU
Source: Digital CEnergy and AGO
0
200
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1990
1992
1994
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1998
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2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Nu
mb
er o
f p
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ls (
'000
)
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Bedroom numbers
Source: ABS
Separate Homes
Medium and high-density dwellings bedroom numbers
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Popu
latio
n
2008 linear rate
2005 ABS Series A
2005 ABS Series B
2005 ABS Series C
Australian Population
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Kyoto
108% 1990 level by 2012
60% of 2000 level by 2050
$65/tonne carbon used to reduce emissions in 2020 to 30% of 1990 levels will cost the Australia economy $2.9 billion pa in 2020
This equates to $A290 per household pa
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Carbon abatement cost curve
Source: McKinsey
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Meeting the costs of reductions
By 2020, 25% of carbon abatement will be met with positive returns (negative marginal costs with positive economic returns over their lifecycle)
Most of these positive returns will be due to energy efficiency measures in buildings and appliances
Unlocking negative costs options involves overcoming persistent barriers to market failure due to misaligned incentives such as mismatches between who pays and who gains the benefit (home builder vs. home owner)
i.e. it benefits the tenant but not the builder to install energy efficient lighting.
Source: McKinsey
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McKinsey Recommendations
Accelerate policies to:
Pursue negative cost opportunities through regulation and incentives
Fast track key technologies
Accelerate change in consumer behaviour
Establish a national carbon scheme
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Response Climate Change
Policies to:
Increase prices
Legislation to transform market
Resulting in:
Less energy per person
More efficient use of assets
Source: McKinsey
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Emissions by Sector
Source: McKinsey
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
The NEM
Source: SA Government
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Load Duration Curve
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0 20 40 60 80 100
% of Half Hour Occurrences
Net
rwo
rk D
eman
d M
W BAULoad Shifting
Shift and reduce
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
What’s on the horizon
Price Signals
ToU Metering
Carbon Tax
DSM
Loads will be turned off
Shifts the load ≠ not less energy
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Retail sector
28% of electricity used in residential sector
Retail price about 4 times wholesale price and about 2.5 times industry price.
After full impact of “climate change” in monetary terms it will probably be the most important sector.
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Impact on DevicesConsumer behaviour
Energy Star, MEPSAir conditioners
Dryers
Refrigerators
Pool pumps others
Device improvements
Better design
More efficient devices
Less standby power
Removal from market
Incandescent lighting
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Sydney Water Prices
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350
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Ho
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eh
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an
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ate
r u
se
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60 City of Sydneyaverage water useper property(kilolitres)
Cost per household($)
Potable water cost($/kilolitre)
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
It is now an energy centric world
The political environment has changed
The ensuing legislative framework and regulatory requirements will mandate change
These will drive the demand and investment required to implement solutions for an energy centric world.
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Milestones
20% renewable energy target
Swimming pool Star rating and MEPS
Demand side management standards
Major revisions to Nationwide House Efficiency Rating
Scheme
Energy Australia commences ToU meter rollout
Photovoltaic Rebate Program
NSW carbon credits drop $12 to $6
Forests NSW Abatement Certificates
4 Star Standard multi residential buildings
NSW mandated greenhouse gas emissions trade scheme
Renewable Energy Certificates
SA Residential Energy Efficiency Scheme
National emissions trading scheme will commence
Incandescent light bulbs illegal
Standby power
Kyoto agreement 108% of 1990 levels met
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Impact on Housing
Design (shell)
Construction (building codes)
Appliances/lighting
Connected devices
This is not a one-off event, home owners will be reminded of this every time they pay an electricity or water bill
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Smart and Connected WorldQ: What is required to participate in this new energy smart and connected world?
– External to the Household
– Internal to the Household
– Common to both worlds
A: Seamless systems and devices working cost effectively together
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Connectivity and Communications
Energy Management
By you
By your appliances themselves
By your next door neighbours appliances
By more remote external agent
All these require connectivity and communications systems
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The Authorities Preferred Option
Source: Advanced Metering Infrastructure. Minimum State-wide Functionality Specification. Prepared for the Department of Primary Industries.
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Smart Devices
Smart Homes
Smart Communities
Smart Cities
Smart Country
Meta Picture
All fully connected as Smart Systems
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
What can be done by industry?
Join an association and read your trade magazines to keep informed of the changes and how they will continue to impact on you, your industry and your customers
Start positioning your company to take advantage of the new opportunities and to defend against possible risks
Train yourself and your staff
Develop customers solutions that help them save energy and money
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Customer Empowerment
Empower your customers to take control of their energy needs:
Energy usage
Know what is happening – metering and in-home displays
Turn off unused appliances
Optimise energy use
Save money by controlling appliances, pools and air conditioning
Make money through rebates and energy generation – solar power
Help your customers take control of their energy needs and to maintain the lifestyle they demand at a price they can afford
Electricity providers will take control about 15 days per year, that leaves 350 days where the resident will be left to their own devices and if they do not manage their loads they will pay dearly for it.
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
This will require
Equipment that can be controlled
Meters and displays
Control equipment
Connections for control signals, see
Others
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
Summary Pressures for change are large
We are in the middle of legislative and regulatory change that will have a rapidly increasing impact over next 2 – 5 years
Customers will demand solutions as soon as costs rise significantly and their lifestyles are greatly affected – this is starting to happen now
You have a role to play right now
Copper Development Centre • Australia Ltd
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Thank you