CONNECT Conference Gleneden Beach, Ore. April … Dam Uzbekistan Surkhandarya region.

AARON T. WOLF PROGRAM IN WATER CONFLICT MANAGEMENT & TRANSFORMATION

COLLEGE OF EARTH, OCEAN, AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY, USA EMAIL: [email protected]

WWW.TRANSBOUNDARYWATERS.ORST.EDU

CONNECT Conference Gleneden Beach, Ore.

April 2016

mailto:[email protected]://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu

What is Water Conflict Management & Transformation??

What changes when a border is present? What capacity do we need to address the change?

Cooperation

Security/Economic Alliance

Neutral Relations

Tensions

Disputes

Hostilities (e.g. sanctions)

Acute (Violent) Conflict

War

The Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database A Project of Oregon State University Department of Geosciences and the

Northwest Alliance for Computational Science

Reference to 3,600 water-related treaties (805-1997) Full-text of 400 treaties and 40 US compacts, entered

in computer database Detailed negotiating notes (primary or secondary)

from fourteen case-studies of water conflict resolution

Annotated bibliography of State of the Art of water dispute resolution literature

News files on cases of acute water-related disputes Indigenous methods of water dispute resolution

Events Database, Example

DATE BASIN COUNTRIES BAR SCALE EVENT SUMMARY ISSUE TYPE

12/5/73 La Plata Argentina--Paraguay 4 PRY AND ARG AGREE TO BUILD 1B DAM, HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT Infrastructure

1/1/76 Ganges Bangladesh--India--United

Nations -2

Bangladesh lodges a formal protest against India with the United Nations, which adopts a consensus statement encouraging the parties to meet urgently, at the level of minister, to arrive at a settlement.

Quantity

7/3/78 Amazon

Bolivia--Brazil--Colombia--Ecuador--

Guyana--Peru--Suriname--Venezuela

6 Treaty for Amazonian Cooperation Economic Development

4/7/95 Jordan Israel--Jordan 4

Pipeline from Israel storage at Beit Zera to Abdullah Canal (East Ghor Canal) begins delivering water stipulated in Treaty (20 MCM summer, 10 MCM winter). The 10 mcm replaces the 10 mcm of desalinated water stipulated Annex II, Article 2d until desalinization plant completed

Quantity

6/1/99 Senegal Mali--Mauritania -3

13 people died in communal clashes in 6/99 along border between Maur. & Mali; conflict started when herdsmen in Missira-Samoura village in w. Mali, refused to allow Maur. horseman to use watering hole; horseman returned w/ some of his clansmen, attacking village on 6/20/99, causing 2 deaths; in retaliation that followed, 11 more died.

Quantity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 21 17 6

68

227

420

122

682

276

242

334

7

164

0

Increasing Conflict

Number of Events by BAR Scale 1948-2008

Increasing Cooperation

Source: De Stefano, L., P. Edwards, L. de Silva and A. T. Wolf 2010. Tracking Cooperation and Conflict in International Basins: Historic and Recent Trends. Water Policy. Vol 12 No 6 pp 871884. Adapted with permission of the authors.

Number of Media Reported Events in Oregon along a Cooperation- Conflict Spectrum

from 1990 to 2004

Source: Fesler, K. (2006) [Analysis of social interactions concerning Oregons water resources between 1990 and 2004.] Unpublished Data.

BASINS AT RISK: Working Hypothesis The likelihood of conflict rises as the rate of

change within the basin exceeds the institutional capacity to absorb that change.

What are indicators? Sudden physical changes or lower institutional

capacity are more conducive to disputes: 1) Uncoordinated development: a major project in

the absence of a treaty or commission 2) Internationalized basins 3) General animosity

Oregon Timeline


Chart3

-1.10185185190.3090909091-1.0363636364

-1.25694444442-2.2545454545

-2.11388888891.1090909091-0.2909090909

0.1120370370.07272727270

-1.71157407410.6545454545-0.6181818182

0.59583333330.4727272727-0.5272727273

1.05694444441.0363636364-0.8181818182

1.03518518520.7818181818-0.3636363636

0.74444444440.6-1.4727272727

0.85833333333.0545454545-1.9636363636

-0.18657407411.4181818182-1.7454545455

-2.43333333332.1454545455-5.4909090909

-0.74305555561.8-2.0363636364

-0.85555555560.6181818182-2.6363636364

-0.47027777783.7818181818-1.5636363636

Drought Index

Cooperative Average

Conflictive Average

Year

Drought Index

Average

Summary Stats

Summary StatsIn progress: inclusion of local eventsValues from Event db addntl

Group A is 1990-1996

Group B is origin 1996-1997

Group C is local 2004

Spectrum valuetitleoriginlocaltotalData Plotted in 'Strug Chart'

5Solidarity6510

4Alliance411253

3Assent262147184

2Agreement242448

1Similarity19726

0Neutral45216645

-1Difference283159

-2Disagreement18725135

-3Dispute20626

-4Litigation2222

-5Hostility33

total252134385

Total Events by Basin for 1990-2004

originlocaltotal

Willamette8218383

Mid Coast6717777

Klamath626262

Mahleur434343

Oregon212121

Rogue1631919

Deschutes1531862

Sandy151515

Federal1011111

Umpqua461010

South Coast5166

Umatilla555

John Day2355

Goose and Summer Lakes555

Owyhee222

Grande Ronde222

North Coast111

Total251134429

TotalSpectrum Value

BasinCoop (+5)Coop (+4)Coop (+3)Coop (+2)Coop (+1)Neut (0)Conf (-1)Conf (-2)Conf (-3)Conf (-4)Conf (-5)Total

Oregon1412126211021

Federal0201060101011

Deschutes0541241100018


Grande Ronde000000001102

John Day010012010005

Klamath127451211656362

Mahleur14662416310043

Mid Coast18141551112362077

North Coast000100000001

Owyhee000101000002

Rogue1214142031019

Sandy2212123101015

South Coast011100002106

Umatilla020002001005

Umpqua2410002100010

Willamette1161197166557083

Total105347482666592526223385

Total expont Weight Spectrum Averages: BasinCoop TotalCoop AveConf TotalConf AveEvent TotalTotal AveData Plotted in 'Strug Averages'Total AveCoop AveConf Ave

Oregon91.945454545510-0.7090909091210.6181818182Umpqua

Federal30.65454545452-0.3636363636110.1454545455North Coast

Deschutes122.21818181822-0.0909090909181.0636363636Deschutes

Goose20.09090909093-0.52727272735-0.2181818182Sandy

Grande Ronde002-0.45454545452-0.2272727273Owyhee

Hood

John Day20.30909090911-0.072727272750.1181818182Umatilla

Klamath192.563636363631-4.563636363661-1Mid Coast

Mahleur193.072727272720-0.6727272727431.2Willamette

Mahleur Lake

Mid Coast436.254545454523-2762.1272727273Mahleur

North Coast10.07272727270010.0363636364John Day

Owyhee10.07272727270020.0363636364Rogue

Powder

Rogue91.50909090916-0.8181818182190.3454545455South Coast

Sandy81.81818181825-0.4181818182140.7Klamath

South Coast30.52727272733-0.61818181826-0.0454545455Goose

Umatilla20.58181818181-0.163636363650.2090909091Grande Ronde

Umpqua72.23636363643-0.1090909091101.0636363636

Willamette447.690909090923-3.3272727273822.1818181818

Total184135381

Event Count

BasinStrong Coop (+4,+5)Mild Coop (+1,+2,+3)Neutral (0)Mild Conf (-1, -2,-3)Stong Conf (-4,-5)TotalCoopConfl% conflict extreme% coop extreme

State54291219104.76%23.81%4.00%

Federal2161111329.09%18.18%4.00%

Deschutes57420181220.00%27.78%0.00%

Goose and Summer Lakes0202152320.00%0.00%4.00%

Grande Ronde0001120250.00%0.00%4.00%

John Day112105210.00%20.00%0.00%

Klamath3161222962193114.52%4.84%36.00%

Mahleur51442004319200.00%11.63%0.00%

Mid Coast934112127743232.60%11.69%8.00%

North Coast010001100.00%0.00%0.00%

Owyhee011002100.00%0.00%0.00%

Rogue3645119965.26%15.79%4.00%

Sandy4424115856.67%26.67%4.00%

South Coast1202163316.67%16.67%4.00%

Umatilla202105210.00%40.00%0.00%

Umpqua6103010730.00%60.00%0.00%

Willamette1727161678344238.43%20.48%28.00%

385

Total6312166110253851841356.49%16.36%

Total: BasinCoop (+)Neutral (0)Confl (-)TotalData plotted in 'Basin'

Willamette44162383

Mid Coast43112377

Klamath19123162

Mahleur1942043

Rogue94619

Deschutes124218

Sandy82515

Umpqua70310

South Coast3036

Goose2035

John Day2215

Umatilla2215

Grande Ronde0022

Owyhee1102

North Coast1001

Oregon921021

Federal36211

Total18466135385

Data excludes local source searches to plot against drought index

Oregon (basin)ConflictCooperativeNeutralKlamathConflictCooperativeNeutraltotal

199019901001

199119911012

199219920000

199319930101

19941119940011

1995119950000

19961219960000

199719970011

19981219980000

199911119990000

20002120001001

20012001189431

2002120023339

2003120034318

200420043317

total31191262

WillamettetotalconflictcoopneutralDeschutestotalconflictcoopneutral

1990512219900000

1991814319911010

199210119920000

1993000019930000

1994000019941010

1995412119950000

1996513119964130

1997101019974031

1998202019980000

199917610119990000

20001035220000000

2001614120012110

2002211020021010

2003640220031001

20041539320041010

Total82Total15

RoguetotalconflictcoopneutralSandytotalconflictcoopneutral

1990000019900000

1991000019917430

1992000019921010

1993000019930000

1994000019940000

1995000019950000

1996000019960000

1997100119971010

1998532019980000

1999422019992020

2000201120000000

2001000020012002

2002202020022110

2003100120030000

2004101020040000

total16total15

OriginSpectrum Valuesdoes not include local events

YearCoop (+5)Coop (+4)Coop (+3)Coop (+2)Coop (+1)Neut (0)Conf (-1)Conf (-2)Conf (-3)Conf (-4)Conf (-5)total recheckTotal Events

19900100121200077

1991142035321202323

19920311000100066

19930001000000011

19940201031010088

19950110121001077

1996022131110101212

1997012213010101111

1998010410203101212

1999251713133202828

2000041113123301919

2001045157923424242

2002043203320111919

2003012007421101818

2004185226105403434

Total Spectrum44125231945281820213247247

Spectrum Ave for each yearCoopConfTotaltest

19900.3090909091-1.0363636364-0.3636363636

19912-2.2545454545-0.1272727273

19921.1090909091-0.29090909090.4090909091

19930.072727272700.0363636364

19940.6545454545-0.61818181820.0181818182

19950.4727272727-0.5272727273-0.0272727273

19961.0363636364-0.81818181820.1090909091

19970.7818181818-0.36363636360.2090909091

19980.6-1.4727272727-0.4363636364

19993.0545454545-1.96363636360.5454545455

20001.4181818182-1.7454545455-0.1636363636

20012.1454545455-5.4909090909-1.6727272727

20021.8-2.0363636364-0.1181818182

20030.6181818182-2.6363636364-1.0090909091

20043.7818181818-1.56363636361.1090909091

OriginNumber of events

YearCoop (+)Neut (0)Conf (-)Year TotalCases

1990223710

199110582331

199250167

199310011

1994332810

199532279

19968131215

19976321113

19986061218

199916392837

20007391928

2001157204262

20029371926

20033781826

2004186103444

337

TIMELINE

1999-4Oregon Plan

19994

drought

DateJan-1 1990Apr-1 1990Jul-1 1990Oct-1 1990Jan-1 1991Apr-1 1991Jul-1 1991Oct-1 1991Jan-1 1992Apr-1 1992Jul-1 1992Oct-1 1992Jan-1 1993Apr-1 1993Jul-1 1993Oct-1 1993Jan-1 1994Apr-1 1994Jul-1 1994Oct-1 1994Jan-1 1995Apr-1 1995Jul-1 1995Oct-1 1995Jan-1 1996Apr-1 1996Jul-1 1996Oct-1 1996Jan-1 1997Apr-1 1997Jul-1 1997Oct-1 1997Jan-1 1998Apr-1 1998Jul-1 1998Oct-1 1998Jan-1 1999Apr-1 1999Jul-1 1999Oct-1 1999Jan-1 2000Apr-1 2000Jul-1 2000Oct-1 2000Jan-1 2001Apr-1 2001Jul-1 2001Oct-1 2001Jan-1 2002Apr-1 2002Jul-1 2002Oct-1 2002Jan-1 2003Apr-1 2003Jul-1 2003Oct-1 2003Jan-1 2004Apr-1 2004Jul-1 2004Oct-1 2004Jan-1 2005

North CoastNorth Coast5-Mo Avg-1.4-0.90.20.0-0.3-1.10.5-0.5-1.2-1.9-2.3-1.5-0.5-1.2na0.4-2.3-1.6-0.9-1.11.01.60.20.31.81.40.90.71.60.50.22.41.8-0.3-0.7-1.20.62.81.0-0.40.10.5-0.10.2-2.1-3.3-1.60.00.50.2-0.4-1.3-1.50.0-0.4-1.4-0.4-1.1-1.830.20.63

Grane RondeGrande Ronde5-Mo Avg-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.8-0.5nana-0.8-0.8-1.7-2.9-2.4-1.5-0.9na1.70.0-1.1-1.4-2.0-1.10.51.11.51.41.01.00.91.52.22.01.90.5-0.10.61.31.11.60.90.40.20.60.1-0.7-0.8-2.8-3.0-3.2-1.7-0.7-1.5-1.9-2.0-1.6-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.7-1.17-1.24-1.57

UmatillaUmatilla5-Mo Avg-1.8-2.5-1.6-1.2-1.2-2.0-0.50.2-0.5-1.3-2.8-2.2-0.30.10.71.4-0.9-1.8-1.4-2.1-0.9-0.1-0.11.11.21.10.40.00.6na0.01.20.2-1.0-0.30.70.91.20.10.1-0.20.1-0.4-1.5-1.2-2.9-2.7-2.9-1.4-0.9-0.60.0-0.9-1.00.60.90.20.040.131.310.08

WillametteWillamette5-Mo Avg-1.9-1.2-0.6-0.8-0.6-1.5-0.8-0.4-0.4-1.4-2.1-1.9-0.60.00.80.4-2.3-2.0na-0.90.60.7-0.1-0.20.91.40.4-0.21.72.20.50.30.1-1.0-0.7-0.40.72.10.50.2-0.10.80.3-0.4-1.5-2.8-3.0-3.3-1.50.4-0.6-1.8-1.8-0.9-1.2-2.0-0.70.19-0.830.540.38

John DayUpper John Day5-Mo Avg-0.6-2.6-1.5-0.8-0.8-2.2-0.10.3-0.6-1.9-2.7-0.90.21.21.91.7-1.0-2.1-1.7-1.6-0.70.50.90.70.50.60.2-0.51.11.70.30.7-0.6-0.30.91.30.51.80.7-0.7-0.9-0.1-0.8-1.8-0.9-2.5-2.2-1.40.10.2-0.8-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.3-0.40.00.480.20.870.3

DeschutesUpper Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.3-1.8-2.0-1.9-1.9-2.5-2.3-2.4-1.9-2.4-2.7-2.5-2.2-0.40.80.7-0.8-1.9-2.5-2.8nanana-0.7-0.50.31.21.72.02.31.82.41.40.31.52.31.82.21.01.81.51.01.01.30.5-1.5-1.6-0.8-0.20.2-0.5-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.7-0.8-0.30.03-0.290.01-0.27

HoodLower Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.5-1.40.3-0.3-0.3-1.0-1.1-1.4-1.1-1.7-2.8-2.2-0.9-0.80.7-0.1-2.4-2.0-1.9-2.8-1.20.3-0.7-0.50.70.60.90.71.6nana3.11.1nana0.20.61.21.01.80.70.70.80.7nanananana1.21.40.8-2.0-1.5-1.4-1.7-0.7-0.45-0.810.850.18

SandyLower Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.5-1.40.3-0.3-0.3-1.0-1.1-1.4-1.1-1.7-2.8-2.2-0.9-0.80.7-0.1-2.4-2.0-1.9-2.8-1.20.3-0.7-0.50.70.60.90.71.6nana3.11.1nana0.20.61.21.01.80.70.70.80.7nanananana1.21.40.8-2.0-1.5-1.4-1.7-0.7-0.45-0.810.850.18

PowderGrande Ronde5-Mo Avg-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.8-0.5nana-0.8-0.8-1.7-2.9-2.4-1.5-0.9na1.70.0-1.1-1.4-2.0-1.10.51.11.51.41.01.00.91.52.22.01.90.5-0.10.61.31.11.60.90.40.20.60.1-0.7-0.8-2.8-3.0-3.2-1.7-0.7-1.5-1.9-2.0-1.6-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.7-1.17-1.24-1.57

Mid CoastNorth Coast5-Mo Avg-1.4-0.90.20.0-0.3-1.10.5-0.5-1.2-1.9-2.3-1.5-0.5-1.2na0.4-2.3-1.6-0.9-1.11.01.60.20.31.81.40.90.71.60.50.22.41.8-0.3-0.7-1.20.62.81.0-0.40.10.5-0.10.2-2.1-3.3-1.60.00.50.2-0.4-1.3-1.50.0-0.4-1.4-0.4-1.1-1.830.20.63

MalheurMalheur5-Mo Avg-0.4-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.2-2.8-2.2-2.2-1.8-2.4nanana0.11.11.1-0.2-1.4-1.9-2.3-1.4-0.40.20.80.4na0.90.51.31.10.5na0.10.01.41.41.52.0nana0.00.50.4-0.2-0.8-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.7-0.5-1.3-1.8-1.9-1.6-1.2-1.9-1.7-0.35-0.66-0.85-1.14

Mal LakeHarney5-Mo Avg-0.7-2.9-2.3-1.7-1.5-2.6-1.2-0.9-0.8-2.3-3.0-2.00.11.31.91.5-0.7-2.3-1.9-2.5-0.91.00.91.1-0.20.70.6-0.30.71.10.0-0.1-1.20.31.31.50.71.40.9-0.4-1.5-0.8-1.3-1.9-2.0-2.2-2.0-1.4-0.10.2-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.9-0.9-0.6-0.60.47-0.53-0.20.13

UmpquaRogue & Umpqua5-Mo Avg-1.1-2.1-1.7-1.3-1.7-2.1-1.3-0.8-1.1-2.3-3.4-3.3-1.80.11.01.1-0.9-2.3-2.8-3.1-1.80.51.01.91.01.41.81.91.51.50.71.60.40.62.01.70.72.01.61.30.20.50.70.6-0.9-2.9-3.3-3.4-1.50.1-0.9-1.6-1.1-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.50.18-0.06-0.37-0.52

OwyheeOwyhee5-Mo Avg-0.3-1.1-1.0-1.1-1.6-2.1-1.5-1.6-1.4-2.6-3.3-3.2-1.70.41.10.7-0.6-1.8-2.0-2.3-1.20.10.61.20.40.70.80.51.11.70.90.9-0.2-0.10.71.40.70.80.90.3-0.7-0.3-1.0-1.1nanananana-0.5-1.3-1.6-1.7-2.1-2.4-2.4-1.7-0.48-1.16-1.29-0.89

GooseLake5-Mo Avg-0.1-1.7-2.0-1.9-2.3-2.8-2.0-2.5-2.3-2.6nanana0.01.70.5-1.3-1.6-2.3-2.6na0.41.3nanananana2.12.00.80.80.21.02.12.21.31.91.41.40.10.00.30.50.3-1.7-2.4-2.3-0.6-0.1-0.7-1.2-1.3-1.0-0.7-0.5-0.6-0.08-0.95-1.45-0.83

South CoastSouth Coast5-Mo Avgnanana2.11.1-0.10.00.1-1.0-2.6-1.6-2.2-2.00.01.52.70.5-1.0-0.9-1.9-0.91.11.31.20.41.21.10.41.11.2-0.6-1.0-1.30.41.22.32.01.20.10.5-0.2-0.6-1.5-1.9-2.3-3.6-2.2-1.3-0.60.72.02.70.61.22.22.80.9-0.94-2.52-0.80.75

KlamathKlamath5-Mo Avg-0.7-1.8na-1.6-2.1-2.9-2.4-2.6-2.5-2.8-3.5-3.4-2.20.00.6-0.1-1.3-2.4-2.9-3.2-2.3-0.30.60.5-0.21.51.30.71.21.70.80.90.51.12.32.31.62.11.51.40.60.60.60.0nanananana-0.4-2.0-2.6-2.2-1.7-1.8-2.2-2.0-1.19-2.02-2.55-1.94

RogueRogue & Umpqua5-Mo Avg-1.1-2.1-1.7-1.3-1.7-2.1-1.3-0.8-1.1-2.3-3.4-3.3-1.80.11.01.1-0.9-2.3-2.8-3.1-1.80.51.01.91.01.41.81.91.51.50.71.60.40.62.01.70.72.01.61.30.20.50.70.6-0.9-2.9-3.3-3.4-1.50.1-0.9-1.6-1.1-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.50.18-0.06-0.37-0.52


(april 1990- jan 1991)

Yearly Averages199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

North Coast-0.3-0.6-1.6-1.0-0.71.01.21.2-0.40.9-0.4-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.53

Grane Ronde-0.9-0.8-2.10.3-1.41.11.11.70.70.8-0.2-2.7-1.5-1.5-1.17

Umatilla-1.6-0.7-1.70.3-1.60.50.50.50.10.3-0.8-2.5-0.60.20.39

Willamette-0.8-0.8-1.5-0.3-0.80.30.80.8-0.40.7-0.2-2.7-1.0-1.20.07

John Day-1.4-0.7-1.31.0-1.50.70.40.50.60.2-0.9-1.5-0.7-0.40.46

Deschutes-1.9-2.3-2.50.1-2.4-0.61.32.01.51.61.0-1.0-0.6-0.7-0.13

Hood-0.4-1.2-1.9-0.7-2.0-0.11.02.10.41.20.70.00.4-1.3-0.06

Sandy-0.4-1.2-1.9-0.7-2.0-0.11.02.10.41.20.70.00.4-1.3-0.06

Powder-0.9-0.8-2.10.3-1.41.11.11.70.70.8-0.2-2.7-1.5-1.5-1.17

Mid Coast-0.3-0.6-1.6-1.0-0.71.01.21.2-0.40.9-0.4-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.53

Malheur-2.1-2.3-2.40.5-1.80.30.90.61.11.0-0.0-1.4-1.4-1.6-0.75

Mal Lake-2.1-1.4-1.81.0-1.90.70.4-0.11.00.1-1.5-1.4-1.2-1.0-0.03

Umpqua-1.7-1.3-2.70.3-2.51.11.71.11.31.30.2-2.8-0.9-0.5-0.19

Owyhee-1.2-1.7-2.70.4-1.80.60.80.80.70.3-0.80.0-1.3-2.2-0.96

Goose-2.0-2.4-2.60.2-2.20.92.11.01.71.20.3-1.8-0.8-0.7-0.83

South Coast1.6-0.3-2.11.2-1.21.01.0-0.41.50.4-1.6-1.91.51.8-0.88surrogate K 2001 value found by average of nearby basins

Klamath-1.8-2.6-3.0-0.2-2.70.21.21.01.81.40.4-2.1-1.8-1.9-1.93-2.08125

Rogue-1.7-1.3-2.70.3-2.51.11.71.11.31.30.2-2.8-0.9-0.5-0.19

South Coast1.6-0.3-2.11.2-1.21.01.0-0.41.50.4-1.6-1.91.51.8-0.88

Oregon-1.1-1.3-2.10.1-1.70.61.11.00.70.9-0.2-2.4-0.7-0.9-0.5

basins surrounding K: R, UQ, D, GS

may be used to form surrogate drought index value for 2001

TOTAL0

drought

10

10

00

01

00

00

00

00

00

00

10

189

33

43

33

drought index

conflict

cooperate

year

drought value

Klamath drought index

consmp use

DateDeschutesGooseGrande RondeHoodJohn DayKlamathMalheurMalheur LakeMid CoastNorth CoastOwyheePowderRogueSandySouth CoastUmatillaUmpquaWillamette

1/1/9312.72106.153.625.742.5637.50273.938.931.054.68270.4542.2611.8059.501.6485.063.537.60

4/1/9314.4477.794.919.785.3151.50135.4858.911.473.73128.6038.1915.2751.421.3274.621.2326.40

7/1/9319.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.34454.43158.2910.2922.40503.02133.6224.4233.3323.17226.9615.0031.66

10/1/9316.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.52195.2621.9310.4222.39294.8739.126.2059.3612.77120.825.567.99

1993 Ave15.88148.3212.4717.4020.6263.22264.7762.025.8113.30299.2463.3014.4250.909.73126.866.3318.41

1/1/9412.72106.153.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.264.69270.4542.2611.8059.501.7785.063.537.66

4/1/9414.4477.794.919.785.3151.50135.4858.911.763.75128.6038.1915.2751.421.3874.621.2326.45

7/1/9419.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.34454.43158.2910.3122.50503.02133.6224.4233.3323.25226.9615.0732.13

10/1/9416.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.52195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.10120.825.568.13

1994 Ave15.88148.3212.4717.4020.6663.22264.7762.025.9413.33299.2463.3014.4250.909.87126.866.3518.59

1/1/9512.72106.243.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.501.8585.063.587.70

4/1/9514.4477.904.919.785.3451.54135.4858.911.783.75128.6038.2515.2751.421.4674.681.2826.50

7/1/9519.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.4733.3323.72226.9615.0732.91

10/1/9516.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.44120.835.658.87

1995 Ave15.88148.3712.4717.4020.6763.25264.7762.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4450.9010.12126.886.3918.99

1/1/9612.72106.243.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.502.1085.063.597.90

4/1/9614.4777.904.919.785.3451.58135.4858.911.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.7774.681.2926.68

7/1/9619.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.4733.3323.77226.9615.0732.94

10/1/9616.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.57120.835.658.87

1996 Ave15.89148.3712.4717.4020.6763.26264.7762.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4550.9010.30126.886.4019.10

1/1/9712.74106.293.625.832.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.502.1285.063.597.91

4/1/9714.4877.904.919.785.3451.58135.6158.911.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.7874.681.2926.70

7/1/9719.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9615.1432.97

10/1/9716.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.58120.835.658.93

1997 Ave15.90148.3812.4717.4220.6763.26264.8162.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.31126.886.4219.13

1/1/9812.74106.343.625.832.7237.50273.938.951.334.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.1885.063.597.95

4/1/9814.5377.904.919.795.3451.58135.6159.041.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.8474.691.2926.72

7/1/9819.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1432.99

10/1/9816.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.9022.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.93

1998 Ave15.91148.4012.4717.4320.6763.26264.8162.056.2513.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.35126.896.4219.15

1/1/9912.74106.343.705.832.7237.50273.938.971.744.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2185.063.598.06

4/1/9914.5377.904.9810.245.3451.58135.6159.162.153.75128.6038.2515.3351.421.8574.691.2926.72

7/1/9919.59319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1432.99

10/1/9916.8189.905.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9022.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.93

1999 Ave15.92148.4012.5117.5620.6763.26264.8180.686.4513.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.36126.896.4219.17

1/1/0012.74106.343.706.112.7237.50273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2185.063.598.08

4/1/0014.5677.904.9810.245.3451.62135.6159.162.163.75128.6038.2515.3351.421.8674.691.3126.80

7/1/0019.59319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1433.00

10/1/0016.8189.905.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.95

2000 Ave15.92148.4012.5117.6320.6763.27264.8193.766.4613.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.36126.896.4219.21

1/1/0112.80106.343.706.112.7237.57273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2285.583.598.10

4/1/0114.6177.905.0010.245.3451.62135.6159.162.163.75128.6038.3015.3351.421.8674.691.3126.83

7/1/0119.65319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.79226.9915.1433.26

10/1/0116.8890.555.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.60120.835.659.20

2001 Ave15.98148.5612.5117.6320.6763.29264.8193.766.4613.33299.2463.3214.4950.9010.37127.026.4219.35

1/1/0212.80106.343.796.112.7237.57273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8359.502.2385.583.618.19

4/1/0214.6477.905.0510.245.3451.62135.6159.162.183.75128.6038.3015.3351.421.8674.691.3126.95

7/1/0219.65319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43159.3911.0922.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.79226.9915.2133.43

10/1/0216.8890.555.6212.7018.0239.54195.2696.8810.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.60120.835.659.73

2002 Ave15.99148.5612.5717.6320.6763.29264.8194.186.4913.33299.2463.3214.5050.9010.37127.026.4419.57

1/1/0312.82106.343.796.112.7237.57273.9361.741.754.69270.4542.2611.8359.502.2485.773.618.32

4/1/0314.6577.905.0510.245.3451.62135.6160.282.183.75128.6838.3015.3351.421.8774.691.3127.06

7/1/0319.65319.4535.8441.4856.60124.42454.43159.3911.1022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.84226.9915.2133.50

10/1/0316.8890.765.6212.7018.0253.46195.2696.8810.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.66120.835.659.78

2003 Ave16.00148.6112.5717.6320.6766.77264.8194.576.4913.33299.2663.3214.5050.9010.40127.076.4419.67

1/1/0412.82106.343.796.112.7256.63273.9361.801.754.69270.4542.2611.8559.502.2585.773.618.38

4/1/0414.8277.905.0810.245.3490.02135.6160.282.183.75128.6838.3615.3351.421.8774.691.3127.12

2004 Ave

BasinCnspm Use Ave 2003

Deschutes16.00

Goose148.61

Grande Ronde12.57

Hood17.63

John Day20.67

Klamath66.77

Malheur264.81

Malheur Lake94.57

Mid Coast6.49

North Coast13.33

Owyhee299.26

Powder63.32

Rogue14.50

Sandy50.90

South Coast10.40

Umatilla127.07

Umpqua6.44

Willamette19.67

conflict

cooperation

year

drought index value

Willamette drought index

1

2

1

4

0

1

0

0

0

0

1

2

1

3

0

1

0

2

6

10

3

5

1

4

1

1

4

0

3

9

conflict

coop

year

drought index

Deschutes

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

3

0

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

0

0

0

1

conflict

cooperation

year

drought index

Sandy

0

0

4

3

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

conflict

year

drought index

Rogue

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

2

2

2

0

1

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

1

Oregon

conflict

cooperation

drought index average

Oregon v # of events

3

2

8

10

1

5

0

1

2

3

2

3

3

8

2

6

6

6

9

16

9

7

20

15

7

9

8

3

10

18

drought

conflict ave

coop ave

Year

Drought Index

-1.0363636364

0.3090909091

-2.2545454545

2

-0.2909090909

1.1090909091

0

0.0727272727

-0.6181818182

0.6545454545

-0.5272727273

0.4727272727

-0.8181818182

1.0363636364

-0.3636363636

0.7818181818

-1.4727272727

0.6

-1.9636363636

3.0545454545

-1.7454545455

1.4181818182

-5.4909090909

2.1454545455

-2.0363636364

1.8

-2.6363636364

0.6181818182

-1.5636363636

3.7818181818

drought index

# lawsuits

year


number of lawsuits

Oregon drought v. lawsuits

10

31

7

1

10

9

15

13

18

37

28

62

26

26

44

Oregon Timeline

Phosphorus Ban Oregon Plan Biological Opinions

Local Watershed Management Plans


Chart3

-1.10185185190.3090909091-1.0363636364

-1.25694444442-2.2545454545

-2.11388888891.1090909091-0.2909090909

0.1120370370.07272727270

-1.71157407410.6545454545-0.6181818182

0.59583333330.4727272727-0.5272727273

1.05694444441.0363636364-0.8181818182

1.03518518520.7818181818-0.3636363636

0.74444444440.6-1.4727272727

0.85833333333.0545454545-1.9636363636

-0.18657407411.4181818182-1.7454545455

-2.43333333332.1454545455-5.4909090909

-0.74305555561.8-2.0363636364

-0.85555555560.6181818182-2.6363636364

-0.47027777783.7818181818-1.5636363636

Drought Index

Cooperative Average

Conflictive Average

Year

Drought Index

Average

Summary Stats

Summary StatsIn progress: inclusion of local eventsValues from Event db addntl

Group A is 1990-1996

Group B is origin 1996-1997

Group C is local 2004

Spectrum valuetitleoriginlocaltotalData Plotted in 'Strug Chart'

5Solidarity6510

4Alliance411253

3Assent262147184

2Agreement242448

1Similarity19726

0Neutral45216645

-1Difference283159

-2Disagreement18725135

-3Dispute20626

-4Litigation2222

-5Hostility33

total252134385

Total Events by Basin for 1990-2004

originlocaltotal

Willamette8218383

Mid Coast6717777

Klamath626262

Mahleur434343

Oregon212121

Rogue1631919

Deschutes1531862

Sandy151515

Federal1011111

Umpqua461010

South Coast5166

Umatilla555

John Day2355


Owyhee222

Grande Ronde222

North Coast111

Total251134429

TotalSpectrum Value

BasinCoop (+5)Coop (+4)Coop (+3)Coop (+2)Coop (+1)Neut (0)Conf (-1)Conf (-2)Conf (-3)Conf (-4)Conf (-5)Total

Oregon1412126211021

Federal0201060101011

Deschutes0541241100018


Grande Ronde000000001102

John Day010012010005

Klamath127451211656362

Mahleur14662416310043

Mid Coast18141551112362077

North Coast000100000001

Owyhee000101000002

Rogue1214142031019

Sandy2212123101015

South Coast011100002106

Umatilla020002001005

Umpqua2410002100010

Willamette1161197166557083

Total105347482666592526223385

Total expont Weight Spectrum Averages: BasinCoop TotalCoop AveConf TotalConf AveEvent TotalTotal AveData Plotted in 'Strug Averages'Total AveCoop AveConf Ave

Oregon91.945454545510-0.7090909091210.6181818182Umpqua

Federal30.65454545452-0.3636363636110.1454545455North Coast

Deschutes122.21818181822-0.0909090909181.0636363636Deschutes

Goose20.09090909093-0.52727272735-0.2181818182Sandy

Grande Ronde002-0.45454545452-0.2272727273Owyhee

Hood

John Day20.30909090911-0.072727272750.1181818182Umatilla

Klamath192.563636363631-4.563636363661-1Mid Coast

Mahleur193.072727272720-0.6727272727431.2Willamette

Mahleur Lake

Mid Coast436.254545454523-2762.1272727273Mahleur

North Coast10.07272727270010.0363636364John Day

Owyhee10.07272727270020.0363636364Rogue

Powder

Rogue91.50909090916-0.8181818182190.3454545455South Coast

Sandy81.81818181825-0.4181818182140.7Klamath

South Coast30.52727272733-0.61818181826-0.0454545455Goose

Umatilla20.58181818181-0.163636363650.2090909091Grande Ronde

Umpqua72.23636363643-0.1090909091101.0636363636

Willamette447.690909090923-3.3272727273822.1818181818

Total184135381

Event Count

BasinStrong Coop (+4,+5)Mild Coop (+1,+2,+3)Neutral (0)Mild Conf (-1, -2,-3)Stong Conf (-4,-5)TotalCoopConfl% conflict extreme% coop extreme

State54291219104.76%23.81%4.00%

Federal2161111329.09%18.18%4.00%

Deschutes57420181220.00%27.78%0.00%

Goose and Summer Lakes0202152320.00%0.00%4.00%

Grande Ronde0001120250.00%0.00%4.00%

John Day112105210.00%20.00%0.00%

Klamath3161222962193114.52%4.84%36.00%

Mahleur51442004319200.00%11.63%0.00%

Mid Coast934112127743232.60%11.69%8.00%

North Coast010001100.00%0.00%0.00%

Owyhee011002100.00%0.00%0.00%

Rogue3645119965.26%15.79%4.00%

Sandy4424115856.67%26.67%4.00%

South Coast1202163316.67%16.67%4.00%

Umatilla202105210.00%40.00%0.00%

Umpqua6103010730.00%60.00%0.00%

Willamette1727161678344238.43%20.48%28.00%

385

Total6312166110253851841356.49%16.36%

Total: BasinCoop (+)Neutral (0)Confl (-)TotalData plotted in 'Basin'

Willamette44162383

Mid Coast43112377

Klamath19123162

Mahleur1942043

Rogue94619

Deschutes124218

Sandy82515

Umpqua70310

South Coast3036

Goose2035

John Day2215

Umatilla2215

Grande Ronde0022

Owyhee1102

North Coast1001

Oregon921021

Federal36211

Total18466135385

Data excludes local source searches to plot against drought index

Oregon (basin)ConflictCooperativeNeutralKlamathConflictCooperativeNeutraltotal

199019901001

199119911012

199219920000

199319930101

19941119940011

1995119950000

19961219960000

199719970011

19981219980000

199911119990000

20002120001001

20012001189431

2002120023339

2003120034318

200420043317

total31191262

WillamettetotalconflictcoopneutralDeschutestotalconflictcoopneutral

1990512219900000

1991814319911010

199210119920000

1993000019930000

1994000019941010

1995412119950000

1996513119964130

1997101019974031

1998202019980000

199917610119990000

20001035220000000

2001614120012110

2002211020021010

2003640220031001

20041539320041010

Total82Total15

RoguetotalconflictcoopneutralSandytotalconflictcoopneutral

1990000019900000

1991000019917430

1992000019921010

1993000019930000

1994000019940000

1995000019950000

1996000019960000

1997100119971010

1998532019980000

1999422019992020

2000201120000000

2001000020012002

2002202020022110

2003100120030000

2004101020040000

total16total15

OriginSpectrum Valuesdoes not include local events

YearCoop (+5)Coop (+4)Coop (+3)Coop (+2)Coop (+1)Neut (0)Conf (-1)Conf (-2)Conf (-3)Conf (-4)Conf (-5)total recheckTotal Events

19900100121200077

1991142035321202323

19920311000100066

19930001000000011

19940201031010088

19950110121001077

1996022131110101212

1997012213010101111

1998010410203101212

1999251713133202828

2000041113123301919

2001045157923424242

2002043203320111919

2003012007421101818

2004185226105403434

Total Spectrum44125231945281820213247247

Spectrum Ave for each yearCoopConfTotaltest

19900.3090909091-1.0363636364-0.3636363636

19912-2.2545454545-0.1272727273

19921.1090909091-0.29090909090.4090909091

19930.072727272700.0363636364

19940.6545454545-0.61818181820.0181818182

19950.4727272727-0.5272727273-0.0272727273

19961.0363636364-0.81818181820.1090909091

19970.7818181818-0.36363636360.2090909091

19980.6-1.4727272727-0.4363636364

19993.0545454545-1.96363636360.5454545455

20001.4181818182-1.7454545455-0.1636363636

20012.1454545455-5.4909090909-1.6727272727

20021.8-2.0363636364-0.1181818182

20030.6181818182-2.6363636364-1.0090909091

20043.7818181818-1.56363636361.1090909091

OriginNumber of events

YearCoop (+)Neut (0)Conf (-)Year TotalCases

1990223710

199110582331

199250167

199310011

1994332810

199532279

19968131215

19976321113

19986061218

199916392837

20007391928

2001157204262

20029371926

20033781826

2004186103444

337

TIMELINE

1999-4Oregon Plan

19994

drought

DateJan-1 1990Apr-1 1990Jul-1 1990Oct-1 1990Jan-1 1991Apr-1 1991Jul-1 1991Oct-1 1991Jan-1 1992Apr-1 1992Jul-1 1992Oct-1 1992Jan-1 1993Apr-1 1993Jul-1 1993Oct-1 1993Jan-1 1994Apr-1 1994Jul-1 1994Oct-1 1994Jan-1 1995Apr-1 1995Jul-1 1995Oct-1 1995Jan-1 1996Apr-1 1996Jul-1 1996Oct-1 1996Jan-1 1997Apr-1 1997Jul-1 1997Oct-1 1997Jan-1 1998Apr-1 1998Jul-1 1998Oct-1 1998Jan-1 1999Apr-1 1999Jul-1 1999Oct-1 1999Jan-1 2000Apr-1 2000Jul-1 2000Oct-1 2000Jan-1 2001Apr-1 2001Jul-1 2001Oct-1 2001Jan-1 2002Apr-1 2002Jul-1 2002Oct-1 2002Jan-1 2003Apr-1 2003Jul-1 2003Oct-1 2003Jan-1 2004Apr-1 2004Jul-1 2004Oct-1 2004Jan-1 2005

North CoastNorth Coast5-Mo Avg-1.4-0.90.20.0-0.3-1.10.5-0.5-1.2-1.9-2.3-1.5-0.5-1.2na0.4-2.3-1.6-0.9-1.11.01.60.20.31.81.40.90.71.60.50.22.41.8-0.3-0.7-1.20.62.81.0-0.40.10.5-0.10.2-2.1-3.3-1.60.00.50.2-0.4-1.3-1.50.0-0.4-1.4-0.4-1.1-1.830.20.63

Grane RondeGrande Ronde5-Mo Avg-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.8-0.5nana-0.8-0.8-1.7-2.9-2.4-1.5-0.9na1.70.0-1.1-1.4-2.0-1.10.51.11.51.41.01.00.91.52.22.01.90.5-0.10.61.31.11.60.90.40.20.60.1-0.7-0.8-2.8-3.0-3.2-1.7-0.7-1.5-1.9-2.0-1.6-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.7-1.17-1.24-1.57

UmatillaUmatilla5-Mo Avg-1.8-2.5-1.6-1.2-1.2-2.0-0.50.2-0.5-1.3-2.8-2.2-0.30.10.71.4-0.9-1.8-1.4-2.1-0.9-0.1-0.11.11.21.10.40.00.6na0.01.20.2-1.0-0.30.70.91.20.10.1-0.20.1-0.4-1.5-1.2-2.9-2.7-2.9-1.4-0.9-0.60.0-0.9-1.00.60.90.20.040.131.310.08

WillametteWillamette5-Mo Avg-1.9-1.2-0.6-0.8-0.6-1.5-0.8-0.4-0.4-1.4-2.1-1.9-0.60.00.80.4-2.3-2.0na-0.90.60.7-0.1-0.20.91.40.4-0.21.72.20.50.30.1-1.0-0.7-0.40.72.10.50.2-0.10.80.3-0.4-1.5-2.8-3.0-3.3-1.50.4-0.6-1.8-1.8-0.9-1.2-2.0-0.70.19-0.830.540.38

John DayUpper John Day5-Mo Avg-0.6-2.6-1.5-0.8-0.8-2.2-0.10.3-0.6-1.9-2.7-0.90.21.21.91.7-1.0-2.1-1.7-1.6-0.70.50.90.70.50.60.2-0.51.11.70.30.7-0.6-0.30.91.30.51.80.7-0.7-0.9-0.1-0.8-1.8-0.9-2.5-2.2-1.40.10.2-0.8-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.3-0.40.00.480.20.870.3

DeschutesUpper Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.3-1.8-2.0-1.9-1.9-2.5-2.3-2.4-1.9-2.4-2.7-2.5-2.2-0.40.80.7-0.8-1.9-2.5-2.8nanana-0.7-0.50.31.21.72.02.31.82.41.40.31.52.31.82.21.01.81.51.01.01.30.5-1.5-1.6-0.8-0.20.2-0.5-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.7-0.8-0.30.03-0.290.01-0.27

HoodLower Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.5-1.40.3-0.3-0.3-1.0-1.1-1.4-1.1-1.7-2.8-2.2-0.9-0.80.7-0.1-2.4-2.0-1.9-2.8-1.20.3-0.7-0.50.70.60.90.71.6nana3.11.1nana0.20.61.21.01.80.70.70.80.7nanananana1.21.40.8-2.0-1.5-1.4-1.7-0.7-0.45-0.810.850.18

SandyLower Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.5-1.40.3-0.3-0.3-1.0-1.1-1.4-1.1-1.7-2.8-2.2-0.9-0.80.7-0.1-2.4-2.0-1.9-2.8-1.20.3-0.7-0.50.70.60.90.71.6nana3.11.1nana0.20.61.21.01.80.70.70.80.7nanananana1.21.40.8-2.0-1.5-1.4-1.7-0.7-0.45-0.810.850.18

PowderGrande Ronde5-Mo Avg-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.8-0.5nana-0.8-0.8-1.7-2.9-2.4-1.5-0.9na1.70.0-1.1-1.4-2.0-1.10.51.11.51.41.01.00.91.52.22.01.90.5-0.10.61.31.11.60.90.40.20.60.1-0.7-0.8-2.8-3.0-3.2-1.7-0.7-1.5-1.9-2.0-1.6-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.7-1.17-1.24-1.57

Mid CoastNorth Coast5-Mo Avg-1.4-0.90.20.0-0.3-1.10.5-0.5-1.2-1.9-2.3-1.5-0.5-1.2na0.4-2.3-1.6-0.9-1.11.01.60.20.31.81.40.90.71.60.50.22.41.8-0.3-0.7-1.20.62.81.0-0.40.10.5-0.10.2-2.1-3.3-1.60.00.50.2-0.4-1.3-1.50.0-0.4-1.4-0.4-1.1-1.830.20.63

MalheurMalheur5-Mo Avg-0.4-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.2-2.8-2.2-2.2-1.8-2.4nanana0.11.11.1-0.2-1.4-1.9-2.3-1.4-0.40.20.80.4na0.90.51.31.10.5na0.10.01.41.41.52.0nana0.00.50.4-0.2-0.8-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.7-0.5-1.3-1.8-1.9-1.6-1.2-1.9-1.7-0.35-0.66-0.85-1.14

Mal LakeHarney5-Mo Avg-0.7-2.9-2.3-1.7-1.5-2.6-1.2-0.9-0.8-2.3-3.0-2.00.11.31.91.5-0.7-2.3-1.9-2.5-0.91.00.91.1-0.20.70.6-0.30.71.10.0-0.1-1.20.31.31.50.71.40.9-0.4-1.5-0.8-1.3-1.9-2.0-2.2-2.0-1.4-0.10.2-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.9-0.9-0.6-0.60.47-0.53-0.20.13

UmpquaRogue & Umpqua5-Mo Avg-1.1-2.1-1.7-1.3-1.7-2.1-1.3-0.8-1.1-2.3-3.4-3.3-1.80.11.01.1-0.9-2.3-2.8-3.1-1.80.51.01.91.01.41.81.91.51.50.71.60.40.62.01.70.72.01.61.30.20.50.70.6-0.9-2.9-3.3-3.4-1.50.1-0.9-1.6-1.1-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.50.18-0.06-0.37-0.52

OwyheeOwyhee5-Mo Avg-0.3-1.1-1.0-1.1-1.6-2.1-1.5-1.6-1.4-2.6-3.3-3.2-1.70.41.10.7-0.6-1.8-2.0-2.3-1.20.10.61.20.40.70.80.51.11.70.90.9-0.2-0.10.71.40.70.80.90.3-0.7-0.3-1.0-1.1nanananana-0.5-1.3-1.6-1.7-2.1-2.4-2.4-1.7-0.48-1.16-1.29-0.89

GooseLake5-Mo Avg-0.1-1.7-2.0-1.9-2.3-2.8-2.0-2.5-2.3-2.6nanana0.01.70.5-1.3-1.6-2.3-2.6na0.41.3nanananana2.12.00.80.80.21.02.12.21.31.91.41.40.10.00.30.50.3-1.7-2.4-2.3-0.6-0.1-0.7-1.2-1.3-1.0-0.7-0.5-0.6-0.08-0.95-1.45-0.83


KlamathKlamath5-Mo Avg-0.7-1.8na-1.6-2.1-2.9-2.4-2.6-2.5-2.8-3.5-3.4-2.20.00.6-0.1-1.3-2.4-2.9-3.2-2.3-0.30.60.5-0.21.51.30.71.21.70.80.90.51.12.32.31.62.11.51.40.60.60.60.0nanananana-0.4-2.0-2.6-2.2-1.7-1.8-2.2-2.0-1.19-2.02-2.55-1.94

RogueRogue & Umpqua5-Mo Avg-1.1-2.1-1.7-1.3-1.7-2.1-1.3-0.8-1.1-2.3-3.4-3.3-1.80.11.01.1-0.9-2.3-2.8-3.1-1.80.51.01.91.01.41.81.91.51.50.71.60.40.62.01.70.72.01.61.30.20.50.70.6-0.9-2.9-3.3-3.4-1.50.1-0.9-1.6-1.1-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.50.18-0.06-0.37-0.52


(april 1990- jan 1991)

Yearly Averages199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

North Coast-0.3-0.6-1.6-1.0-0.71.01.21.2-0.40.9-0.4-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.53

Grane Ronde-0.9-0.8-2.10.3-1.41.11.11.70.70.8-0.2-2.7-1.5-1.5-1.17

Umatilla-1.6-0.7-1.70.3-1.60.50.50.50.10.3-0.8-2.5-0.60.20.39

Willamette-0.8-0.8-1.5-0.3-0.80.30.80.8-0.40.7-0.2-2.7-1.0-1.20.07

John Day-1.4-0.7-1.31.0-1.50.70.40.50.60.2-0.9-1.5-0.7-0.40.46

Deschutes-1.9-2.3-2.50.1-2.4-0.61.32.01.51.61.0-1.0-0.6-0.7-0.13

Hood-0.4-1.2-1.9-0.7-2.0-0.11.02.10.41.20.70.00.4-1.3-0.06

Sandy-0.4-1.2-1.9-0.7-2.0-0.11.02.10.41.20.70.00.4-1.3-0.06

Powder-0.9-0.8-2.10.3-1.41.11.11.70.70.8-0.2-2.7-1.5-1.5-1.17

Mid Coast-0.3-0.6-1.6-1.0-0.71.01.21.2-0.40.9-0.4-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.53

Malheur-2.1-2.3-2.40.5-1.80.30.90.61.11.0-0.0-1.4-1.4-1.6-0.75

Mal Lake-2.1-1.4-1.81.0-1.90.70.4-0.11.00.1-1.5-1.4-1.2-1.0-0.03

Umpqua-1.7-1.3-2.70.3-2.51.11.71.11.31.30.2-2.8-0.9-0.5-0.19

Owyhee-1.2-1.7-2.70.4-1.80.60.80.80.70.3-0.80.0-1.3-2.2-0.96

Goose-2.0-2.4-2.60.2-2.20.92.11.01.71.20.3-1.8-0.8-0.7-0.83

South Coast1.6-0.3-2.11.2-1.21.01.0-0.41.50.4-1.6-1.91.51.8-0.88surrogate K 2001 value found by average of nearby basins

Klamath-1.8-2.6-3.0-0.2-2.70.21.21.01.81.40.4-2.1-1.8-1.9-1.93-2.08125

Rogue-1.7-1.3-2.70.3-2.51.11.71.11.31.30.2-2.8-0.9-0.5-0.19

South Coast1.6-0.3-2.11.2-1.21.01.0-0.41.50.4-1.6-1.91.51.8-0.88

Oregon-1.1-1.3-2.10.1-1.70.61.11.00.70.9-0.2-2.4-0.7-0.9-0.5

basins surrounding K: R, UQ, D, GS

may be used to form surrogate drought index value for 2001

TOTAL0

drought

10

10

00

01

00

00

00

00

00

00

10

189

33

43

33

drought index

conflict

cooperate

year

drought value

Klamath drought index

consmp use

DateDeschutesGooseGrande RondeHoodJohn DayKlamathMalheurMalheur LakeMid CoastNorth CoastOwyheePowderRogueSandySouth CoastUmatillaUmpquaWillamette

1/1/9312.72106.153.625.742.5637.50273.938.931.054.68270.4542.2611.8059.501.6485.063.537.60

4/1/9314.4477.794.919.785.3151.50135.4858.911.473.73128.6038.1915.2751.421.3274.621.2326.40

7/1/9319.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.34454.43158.2910.2922.40503.02133.6224.4233.3323.17226.9615.0031.66

10/1/9316.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.52195.2621.9310.4222.39294.8739.126.2059.3612.77120.825.567.99

1993 Ave15.88148.3212.4717.4020.6263.22264.7762.025.8113.30299.2463.3014.4250.909.73126.866.3318.41

1/1/9412.72106.153.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.264.69270.4542.2611.8059.501.7785.063.537.66

4/1/9414.4477.794.919.785.3151.50135.4858.911.763.75128.6038.1915.2751.421.3874.621.2326.45

7/1/9419.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.34454.43158.2910.3122.50503.02133.6224.4233.3323.25226.9615.0732.13

10/1/9416.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.52195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.10120.825.568.13

1994 Ave15.88148.3212.4717.4020.6663.22264.7762.025.9413.33299.2463.3014.4250.909.87126.866.3518.59

1/1/9512.72106.243.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.501.8585.063.587.70

4/1/9514.4477.904.919.785.3451.54135.4858.911.783.75128.6038.2515.2751.421.4674.681.2826.50

7/1/9519.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.4733.3323.72226.9615.0732.91

10/1/9516.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.44120.835.658.87

1995 Ave15.88148.3712.4717.4020.6763.25264.7762.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4450.9010.12126.886.3918.99

1/1/9612.72106.243.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.502.1085.063.597.90

4/1/9614.4777.904.919.785.3451.58135.4858.911.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.7774.681.2926.68

7/1/9619.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.4733.3323.77226.9615.0732.94

10/1/9616.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.57120.835.658.87

1996 Ave15.89148.3712.4717.4020.6763.26264.7762.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4550.9010.30126.886.4019.10

1/1/9712.74106.293.625.832.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.502.1285.063.597.91

4/1/9714.4877.904.919.785.3451.58135.6158.911.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.7874.681.2926.70

7/1/9719.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9615.1432.97

10/1/9716.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.58120.835.658.93

1997 Ave15.90148.3812.4717.4220.6763.26264.8162.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.31126.886.4219.13

1/1/9812.74106.343.625.832.7237.50273.938.951.334.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.1885.063.597.95

4/1/9814.5377.904.919.795.3451.58135.6159.041.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.8474.691.2926.72

7/1/9819.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1432.99

10/1/9816.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.9022.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.93

1998 Ave15.91148.4012.4717.4320.6763.26264.8162.056.2513.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.35126.896.4219.15

1/1/9912.74106.343.705.832.7237.50273.938.971.744.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2185.063.598.06

4/1/9914.5377.904.9810.245.3451.58135.6159.162.153.75128.6038.2515.3351.421.8574.691.2926.72

7/1/9919.59319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1432.99

10/1/9916.8189.905.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9022.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.93

1999 Ave15.92148.4012.5117.5620.6763.26264.8180.686.4513.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.36126.896.4219.17

1/1/0012.74106.343.706.112.7237.50273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2185.063.598.08

4/1/0014.5677.904.9810.245.3451.62135.6159.162.163.75128.6038.2515.3351.421.8674.691.3126.80

7/1/0019.59319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1433.00

10/1/0016.8189.905.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.95

2000 Ave15.92148.4012.5117.6320.6763.27264.8193.766.4613.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.36126.896.4219.21

1/1/0112.80106.343.706.112.7237.57273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2285.583.598.10

4/1/0114.6177.905.0010.245.3451.62135.6159.162.163.75128.6038.3015.3351.421.8674.691.3126.83

7/1/0119.65319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.79226.9915.1433.26

10/1/0116.8890.555.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.60120.835.659.20

2001 Ave15.98148.5612.5117.6320.6763.29264.8193.766.4613.33299.2463.3214.4950.9010.37127.026.4219.35

1/1/0212.80106.343.796.112.7237.57273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8359.502.2385.583.618.19

4/1/0214.6477.905.0510.245.3451.62135.6159.162.183.75128.6038.3015.3351.421.8674.691.3126.95

7/1/0219.65319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43159.3911.0922.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.79226.9915.2133.43

10/1/0216.8890.555.6212.7018.0239.54195.2696.8810.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.60120.835.659.73

2002 Ave15.99148.5612.5717.6320.6763.29264.8194.186.4913.33299.2463.3214.5050.9010.37127.026.4419.57

1/1/0312.82106.343.796.112.7237.57273.9361.741.754.69270.4542.2611.8359.502.2485.773.618.32

4/1/0314.6577.905.0510.245.3451.62135.6160.282.183.75128.6838.3015.3351.421.8774.691.3127.06

7/1/0319.65319.4535.8441.4856.60124.42454.43159.3911.1022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.84226.9915.2133.50

10/1/0316.8890.765.6212.7018.0253.46195.2696.8810.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.66120.835.659.78

2003 Ave16.00148.6112.5717.6320.6766.77264.8194.576.4913.33299.2663.3214.5050.9010.40127.076.4419.67

1/1/0412.82106.343.796.112.7256.63273.9361.801.754.69270.4542.2611.8559.502.2585.773.618.38

4/1/0414.8277.905.0810.245.3490.02135.6160.282.183.75128.6838.3615.3351.421.8774.691.3127.12

2004 Ave

BasinCnspm Use Ave 2003

Deschutes16.00

Goose148.61

Grande Ronde12.57

Hood17.63

John Day20.67

Klamath66.77

Malheur264.81

Malheur Lake94.57

Mid Coast6.49

North Coast13.33

Owyhee299.26

Powder63.32

Rogue14.50

Sandy50.90

South Coast10.40

Umatilla127.07

Umpqua6.44

Willamette19.67

conflict

cooperation

year

drought index value

Willamette drought index

1

2

1

4

0

1

0

0

0

0

1

2

1

3

0

1

0

2

6

10

3

5

1

4

1

1

4

0

3

9

conflict

coop

year

drought index

Deschutes

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

3

0

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

0

0

0

1

conflict

cooperation

year

drought index

Sandy

0

0

4

3

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

conflict

year

drought index

Rogue

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

2

2

2

0

1

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

1

Oregon

conflict

cooperation


Oregon v # of events

3

2

8

10

1

5

0

1

2

3

2

3

3

8

2

6

6

6

9

16

9

7

20

15

7

9

8

3

10

18

drought

conflict ave

coop ave

Year

Drought Index

-1.0363636364

0.3090909091

-2.2545454545

2

-0.2909090909

1.1090909091

0

0.0727272727

-0.6181818182

0.6545454545

-0.5272727273

0.4727272727

-0.8181818182

1.0363636364

-0.3636363636

0.7818181818

-1.4727272727

0.6

-1.9636363636

3.0545454545

-1.7454545455

1.4181818182

-5.4909090909

2.1454545455

-2.0363636364

1.8

-2.6363636364

0.6181818182

-1.5636363636

3.7818181818

drought index

# lawsuits

year


number of lawsuits

Oregon drought v. lawsuits

10

31

7

1

10

9

15

13

18

37

28

62

26

26

44

Four Worlds Framework: Four Needs and Four Claims

Physical Positions

Emotional Interests

Perceptual Values

Spiritual Harmony

NEEDS FOR: Intrapersonal Interpersonal Groups Nations

CLAIMS: Expressions of needs in negotiations

Vishnus 4 totems

mace physical strength lotus flower glory of existence discus mind chakra conch OM: primeval sound

of all creation

East South

North West

Men

Women

Father sky

Mother earth

Physical Mental

Emotional Spiritual

Objective

Subjective

Medicine Wheel from Shoshone-Bannock and Oglala Lakota Traditions Source: Sammy Matsaw Jr. 2016

Four-Fold Matrix Adversarial Physical Positions Serpent

Reflexive Emotional Interests Jaguar

Integrative Intuitive Values Humming-bird

Action Spiritual Unity/ Alignment

Eagle

Four Worlds Framework: Four Needs and Four Claims

Physical Positions

Emotional Interests

Perceptual Values

Spiritual Harmony

NEEDS FOR: Intrapersonal Interpersonal Groups Nations

CLAIMS: Expressions of needs in negotiations

Thank you!

Issue: Water Allocations Positions: Israel water allocations, Palestinians water rights Interests: Values: Solution:

Issue: Water Allocations Positions: Israel water allocations, Palestinians water rights Interests: Israel wants to problem-solve, Palestine wants history recognized Values: Respect, sovereignty Solution: ???

Issue: Water Allocations Positions: Israel water allocations, Palestinians water rights Interests: Israel wants to problem-solve, Palestine wants history recognized Values: Respect, sovereignty Solution: Rightful Allocations

Issue: Transboundary EIA Positions: 3 countries in favor, 1 against Interests: Values: Solution:

Issue: Transboundary EIA Positions: 3 countries in favor, 1 against Interests: Lack of capacity Values: Equity, Respect Solution: ??

Issue: Transboundary EIA Positions: 3 countries in favor, 1 against Interests: Lack of capacity Values: Equity, Respect Solution: Capacity-building workshops

Kura-Araks

Extremely poor relations (none between Azerbaijan and Armenia)

Quality degradation - legacy of Soviet Union

Issue: Shared Data Positions: All need basin model, Azerbaijan & Armenia will not collaborate Interests: Values: Solution:

Issue: Shared Data Positions: All need basin model, Azerbaijan & Armenia will not collaborate Interests: 2 countries have territorial dispute; both have relations with Georgia Values: Sovereignty, healthy environment Solution: ???

Issue: Shared Data Positions: All need basin model, Azerbaijan & Armenia will not collaborate Interests: 2 countries have territorial dispute; both have relations with Georgia Values: Sovereignty, healthy environment Solution: Crafted policy of parallel bilateralism to map and manage quality hotspots through 3rd party

The Amu-Darya River Basin

Tupalang

Tajikistan

Nurek Dam

Uzbekistan

Surkhandarya region

.

/ -. 1409

/ -

/

Rogun Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant

Issue: Upstream Dam Positions: Tajikistan yes, Uzbekistan no. Interests: Values: Solution: ??

Issue: Upstream Dam Positions: Tajikistan yes, Uzbekistan no. Interests: Power for heating (winter) and export, water for irrigation (summer) Uzbekistan has natural gas World Bank reports that smaller dam more efficient Values: Respect, sovereignty, economic growth Solution: ???

Tupalang

Tajikistan

Nurek Dam

Uzbekistan

Surkhandarya region

.

/ -. 1409

/ -

/

Rogun Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant

Issue: Upstream Dam Positions: Tajikistan yes, Uzbekistan no. Interests: Power for heating (winter) and export, water for irrigation (summer) Values: Respect, sovereignty, economic growth Solution: Smaller dam, payment for storage, natural gas upstream, water downstream, use of regulating dam

Kabbalah of Conflict

Balance in Conflict

Universal?

Justice/Self Mercy/Other

Compassion

Anger/ The Other Side

Yin Yang

Balance in Conflict


Compassion


Active & Transformational Listening

Balance in Conflict


Compassion


Listen! Observe -- detach from interpretations Emotion protects vulnerability (4 worlds) Listen transformatively Engage from understanding

Listening Active Listening

Paying Attention Body Language Separate out cultural, personal differences

Eliciting Ask. Ask (non-threatening) questions. Useful both to better understand the speaker, and also to reassure them that you are really listening;

Reflecting Repeat main points. This lets the speaker know that they have really been heard, a powerful psychological message, as well as helping to focus the dialogue; "I" not "you" statements. Future, not history.

Balance in Conflict


Compassion


Listen! Observe -- detach from interpretations Emotion protects vulnerability (4 worlds) Listen transformatively Engage from understanding

Listening Active Listening

Paying Attention Eliciting Reflecting

Transformative Listening Space Tracking Offer without insisting Check for completeness

Most will listen once listened to Transformation dissipates anger, allows for empathy Helps understand interests behind positions (anger masks pain or vulnerability)

Water Conflict Management & TransformationSlide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Events Database, ExampleNumber of Events by BAR Scale 1948-2008Number of Media Reported Events in Oregon along a Cooperation- Conflict Spectrum from 1990 to 2004BASINS AT RISK: Working HypothesisSlide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Oregon TimelineOregon TimelineSlide Number 16Four Worlds Framework:Four Needs and Four ClaimsSlide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Four-Fold MatrixSlide Number 26Four Worlds Framework:Four Needs and Four ClaimsSlide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40Slide Number 41Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Slide Number 44Slide Number 45Slide Number 46Slide Number 47Slide Number 48Kabbalah of ConflictBalance in ConflictYin YangSlide Number 52Slide Number 53Balance in ConflictActive & Transformational ListeningSlide Number 56Balance in ConflictListeningSlide Number 59Balance in ConflictListening

CONNECT Conference Gleneden Beach, Ore. April … Dam Uzbekistan Surkhandarya region.

Documents

Transcript of CONNECT Conference Gleneden Beach, Ore. April … Dam Uzbekistan Surkhandarya region.