Congestion to Demotorisation - A Paradigm Shift for Bangalore

Sudhir Gota & Prashant Mutalik Secon Pvt. Ltd.- Bangalore

Keywords: Bangalore, Congestion Costs, Demotorisation

Abstract

"You're not stuck in a traffic jam, you are the jam." (1)

The above statement best describes this paper. A city can never build its way out of the congestion without

thinking of demotorisation to an extent. For a Sustainable activist, decongestion and demotorisation phrase

are possible synonyms but they bring out entirely opposite emotions from a layman. In this paper, author

makes an attempt to propose decongestion of Bangalore by a process termed as partial-demotorisation.

Since the policymakers for long have used congestion as a tool for proposing infrastructure improvement

projects, the same tool has been employed to advertise the concept of demotorisation. An attempt has been

made in the paper to access the congestion cost in Bangalore.

1. Introduction

In a Democratic setup, the reasons for controlling any goods consumption should be published and

advertised in all possible ways in order to justify the decision. Supply of essential goods such as

electricity, water supply follows the same principle where the government controls the consumption

depending upon the balance between load & supply. In this paper, the author has made an attempt

to justify the need of such strict control over the issue of transportation. Since the issue is very

controversial with huge stakes in the economic prosperity of the city, the reasons for such a

proposal has been highlighted by making some research on the costs due to excess motorisation.

2. Motorisation Phenomenon of Bangalore

Bangalore once called as Garden City has transformed into a “Black City” (6) due to rapid

motorisation with high accidents. The issue of motorisation in Bangalore has been advertised by

projecting an index referred as Motorisation Index.

The Motorization index 'vehicles for 1000 persons' best describes the high intensity of vehicular

growth. Motorisation index of a city is dependent upon its government policy and economic

prosperity with Bangalore being the prime example. Motorisation index for Bangalore has been

computed and presented in the subsequent Figure1.

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Motorisation index of Bangalore increased from 59.74 (1980) to 148.92 (1990) largely due to the

easing of registration controls. Early 1990's saw the economic liberalization thus increasing the

purchasing powers of the consumers, which initiated the vehicular boom thus increasing the

motorisation index to nearly 360 in 2006.

The motorisation index computed has been summarized below to understand the phenomenon

Two wheeler motorisation index is growing at an average rate of 7.29%

Cars motorisation Index is growing at 8.93%

Auto Rickshaw/Cabs motorisation index is growing at 4.72%

In case of Do-Nothing scenario, the Motorisation Index would increase to 467.04 in the year

2020

At present, nearly every third person owns a vehicle in Bangalore with 61.62% of households

having private vehicles. In order to understand the vehicle ownership phenomenon, it was decided

to further explore the analysis into vehicle-household-ownership domain. The facts that emerge are

No of Vehicles per Households is 1.7

No of vehicles per Households already owning a vehicle is 2.76

Thus it can be concluded that Bangalore is experiencing multiple vehicle ownership phenomenon.

The households already having vehicles are purchasing more number of vehicles; this may be due

to more increase in number of employed persons per family or due to gradual shifting of mode

from two wheeler category to car or from small car category to premium segment.

Output of such rapid motorisation is Congestion, Accidents, Environmental impact and Parking

problems. In this paper congestion faced by the people due to rapid motorisation is highlighted in

order to propose partial-demotorisation of Bangalore to make it sustainable for future.

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Figure 1 Motorization Index (below rapid motorisation)

3. Why Demotorisation? Issue of Congestion Myopia

Oxford Dictionary defines “Congested” as 'so crowded as to hinder freedom of movement'.

Congestion word now for decades has been used by various agencies to propose infrastructure

projects. Authorities in India for long have concentrated on quick-fix solutions (road

widening/flyover) to address the issue of congestion that they have failed to see the larger picture.

The short-term solutions of grade-separations, signal coordination, one-way streets, road widening

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have not controlled congestion due to rapid motorisation. Congestion phenomenon can be can be

summed up the following statement “The more you provide, the more it seeks”. The following

chart indicates the vicious cycle of congestion-vehicles-supply-landuse.

Figure 2 cycle of congestion-vehicles-supply-landuse

It is true that a person travels in order to fulfill a desire. To an extent the trip can be

controlled/altered to reduce congestion, but complete reduction cannot be expected. Hence it can

be logical to expect that complete demotorisation cannot be done. The author’s wants to

emphasize here that partial demotorisation coupled with other demand management techniques

would checkmate the congestion.

Traditionally the infrastructure improvement projects have adopted “Congestion Costs” as the tool

to derive the economic viability of such projects. The same tool has been used to propose

demotorisation. In the following section the congestion costs due to rapid motorisation has been

derived by making some logical assumptions and approximations.

The trip making characteristics vary among individuals-the speed at they travel, cost of travel, time

of travel, their economic background all vary. Since for Indian conditions, no reliable estimate has

been made to access congestion costs of a city as a whole, various governmental backed studies

have been scrutinized for relevant data and the calculations have been kept on the conservative

side.

4. Methodology for Calculating Congestion Cost of Bangalore City

Identify the Total Trips in Bangalore

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Segregate Trips by Modes

Segregate trips by timings (Peak-Off peak)

Identify Mode Wise Trip Lengths

Calculate/Identify Existing Traffic stream speeds (Peak and Off-peak)

Estimate Trip Costs

Compute Cumulative Actual Trip Time

Compute Cumulative Uncongested Trip Time

Compute Congestion Costs

4.1 Total Trips in Bangalore

Comprehensive Traffic and Transportation study (4) conducted in Bangalore has estimated total

trips in Bangalore (2006) as 6285680 whereas Bangalore Metro study has estimated total trips as

5942439. One more study had projected the total number of Trips in 1994 was estimated to be

3900000. The Projected Trips for 2001 was 5200000 (3). RITES had estimated total number of

trips (excluding walk) in 2002 as 5000000. In a presentation of Bangalore Mass Rapid Transit Ltd

(2003), had suggested 5852000 number of daily trips.

The current Bangalore population is nearly 6800000 (CTTS-2007). Considering such a high

population and total trips of 6285680, the per capita trip rate works to be 0.92 which looks highly

conservative as

65% of population is below 30 years

Though the population growth rate is 3%, growth rate in employment and income is 6%

and 9% respectively

62.45% of population is either employed or go to school/colleges thus actively

contributing to at least 2 trips per day which makes the total trips into 8743000

Number of Trips by walk is nearly 523597, which can be considered very less as total

number of trips by public transportation is 2634471(nearly 20% of Public transport

trips gets trips from walk – highly unlikely as Bangalore does not support Park &

Ride concept actively, Further if it is suggested that one undergoes multiple number

of public transport trips in order to reach destination than the total number of trips

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should also increase progressively.

In fact one research (2) has stratified the per capita trip rate in Bangalore in the range 1-1.2.

Report of the Working Group on Urban Transport, (1996), Ministry of Urban Affairs and

Employment, Government of India has reported a Trip rate of 1.2 (5). Thus the Total number of

Trips in Bangalore can be estimated as 8160000 considering the same rate.

4.2 Mode Split of Bangalore

The extent of motorisation can be known by understanding the change in mode split during the

past two decades. The following charts show the rapid motorisation that has taken place in

Bangalore

Figure 3 Mode split vehicles& Mode split Person Trips Source (CRRI,RITES, CDP-2006)

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1965

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Mode-Split- Vehicles Mode-Split- Person Trips

The above Chart proves that the rapid motorisation has taken place in Bangalore. The paradox is

that the 88% of total vehicles, which constitute the two wheelers and four wheelers, contribute only

39% of total Trips. The mode split as suggested by CTTS has been taken for further analysis.

4.3 Trip Timings

Congestion signifying the overloading of system exists during peak hours. Trip taken during non-

peak hours do not face any recurring congestion. Hence it was decided to estimate the trip time

behavior by observing hourly traffic volume variations along principal corridors as shown in

following Figure 4.

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M G Road (Mid Block)

ROB on Chord Road nearMysore Road Intersection

Figure 4 Hourly Traffic Volume Variation along the Principal Corridors

The growth of numerous IT/Biotech industries in the outer periphery caused the expansion of

congestion from CBD to suburban sectors. The industries in order to reduce congestion adopted

TDM strategies such as Carpooling, flexible work hours, Charted-Buses etc. The use of such

strategies by the industries caused peak period dispersal on the arterial roads. The attached charts

developed through collection of traffic data from numerous studies shows peak period dispersal.

The conclusion that can be derived through such an analysis is “congestion exists on the road not for

few hours but for the entire day”

It is interesting to observe that Bangalore is yet to realize its full potential in percentage of trips

made during night-time. In order to gauge the percentage of trips made in off-peak (night Time)

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hours, analysis was carried out in the Hosur Road (NH-7), which is a prominent arterial connecting

Bangalore with other southern states. It connects Bangalore CBD’s with Electronic City a major

hub in IT and Electronic industries.

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Figure 5 Peak Period dispersal

The Chart shows that the total percentage of traffic during night eight hours is 15% of Total Traffic.

Thus it can be logically expected that at least 30% (15% + 15% more during day time early

hours) of total trips would not face any recurring congestion and 70% of total trips face recurring

congestion during daily traverse.

4.4 Trip-Lengths

Due to rapid development of middle and outer fringe areas, Bangalore converted itself from a

single inner CBD city to multiple number of periphery business districts (PBD). Because of such a

development, the trip lengths increased to a great extent. The other major factor for such an

increase was the conversion of two-way roads into one-way roads (nearly 260 km of high volume

roads have been converted into one ways to increase throughput). The following Figure 6 indicates

the mode wise trip lengths as extracted from CTTS-Bangalore (2007).

RITES (2001) had estimated average trip length as 7.1km. CTTS-Bangalore (2007) states that the

average trip length of Bangalore is 10.57km, the same looks reasonable and has been taken for

the analysis purpose.

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Figure 6 Mode wise trip lengths

4.5 Traffic Stream Speeds

People tend to associate congestion with the term speed. The irregular land use pattern with high

number of intersections in Bangalore generate high number of shock waves thus leading to

sinusoidal speed profiles. Various surveys conducted along the Bangalore have been combined

and summarised in following chart.

The operating speed along the central area in Bangalore City police is around 10kmph. CTTS-

Bangalore-2007 suggests 13.2 kmph as average peak hour speed. State of Environment

Report-2003 has reported 13.33 kmph as average speed in Bangalore. One Study (7) has reported

10-12kmph as operating speed in Bangalore. CDP-Bangalore(2006) has stated the average speed

of vehicle as 12-18 Kmph. CTTS-1990 had estimated average speed as 20 kmph.

While commuting, the variance in speeds across the modes along the trip length needs to be

considered. In the present study, it is assumed that the modes would have only slight variation in

the speeds as congestion and platoon movement balances out the extremities. The variation in

speeds along prominent mode wise segregation has been presented in the following table through

field observations along the principal corridors.

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Figure 7 Stream Speeds along various corridorsBasic data : DMRC Bangalore Metro (Airport Rail Link Corridor Study)

Table1 : Mode Wise Operating Journey Speed

Sl.No Mode Average Speed (Kmph) Ideal Speed (Kmph)1 Bus 15 402 Cycle 6 123 Two Wheeler 20 404 Four-Wheeler 18 405 Auto 15 406 Walk 3 3.6

The logic behind selecting higher four-wheeler speed when compared with buses was its high

maneuverability. Two wheelers on account of high flexibility and smaller size can traverse through

congested roads at greater speeds thus attracting potential commuters. The walk mode has been

considered when calculating the congestion costs as they have to compete for space with the

vehicles thus having an impact.

Different roads ( Access, Feeder, Collector) have different design speeds (20-30,50,80). The

vehicle can be considered to travel along various roads at different speeds. Since it is very difficult

to estimate the same for the entire city, a uniform speed of 40kmph was assumed. Selecting higher

speeds was not considered considering safety issues in an urban area.

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4.6 Trip Costs

Traditionally the researchers have classified the trip costs faced by the individual into mainly

Vehicle Operating Costs and Travel Time Costs. A CRRI study in India had classified the travel

time costs to be of the order of 20-40% of total trip costs. Infrastructure projects in India have

mainly concentrated upon these two aspects by utilizing the research of Road User Cost Study.

Table 2 : Travel Time Costs

SI.NO Mode Rs/Hr* Work Non-WorkRs/Hr** Rs/Hr**

1 Two Wheeler 25.39 30.19 9.062 Four Wheeler 41.98 37.14 11.323 IPT/Mini Bus 20.52 25.88 7.764 PT 11.99 21.56 6.47

*Travel Time Costs CTTS-Bangalore**2004-NHDP Projects

1. Traditionally the travel time concept has been to segregate the work-non work trips and

calculating the travel time savings based on wage rate.

2. The vehicle operating costs are mainly composed of fuel, lubricant, tyre, spare parts,

maintainace- labour, depreciation, crew wages etc.

Since it is very difficult to determine the travel time and vehicle operating costs for the city as a

whole, a different approach has been adopted in the present circumstance by investigating if by

any means trip costs for the city was available in any studies. Ideally cost-mode wise distribution

would give accurate results for the present study. Since the data was not available, percentage trip

distribution- purpose/length wise as given in CTTS-Bangalore was used to access the average trip

cost in Bangalore as shown in following Table 3 & 4

Table 3 : Average Trip cost in BangaloreSI.NO Trip Purpose Average travel cost(Rs/km)

1 Work/Business 7.492 Education 2.733 Employee Business 5.744 Others 6.045 Return 6.126 Non Home Based 8.74

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Table 4 : Percentage of Trips (Trips segregated by Trip Length)Trip Purpose 0-2 km 2-5 km 5-10 km 10-15 km 15-20 km 20-35 km >35 km

Work / Business 5.22(425685) 4.44(362070) 6.9(562989) 6.72(548478) 4.48(365653) 1.51(123556) 0.00

Education 2.19(178314) 1.25(102071) 1.17(95562) 3.74(305563) 2.5(203708) 0.88(71948) 0.02(1934)Employee Business 0.03(2182) 0.03(2222) 0.02(1780) 0.06(4880) 0.04(3253) 0.01(876) 0(56)

Others 0.45(36522) 1.92(156318) 1.39(113640) 3.54(288898) 2.36(192598) 0.67(54267) 0.02(1238)Return 3.55(289683) 7.29(594721) 9.22(752014) 14.19(1157512) 9.46(771675) 3.19(260444) 0.1(7803)

Non Home Based 0.08(6299) 0.28(22842) 0.43(34882) 0.34(28101) 0.23(18734) 0.05(3815) 0.06(5210)

the weighted average cost for Bangalore works out to be Rs 6.09/Km.

Thus a person in Bangalore spends Rs 6.09 per Km, travels to an average length of 10.57km

with an average speed of 15kmph spending approximately 91.35Rs/Hr while commuting.

It should be summarized here that the cost taken for trip making is very high in Bangalore on account of it being a high

cost city having highest petrol price in the country with extremely high congestion levels.

5. Congestion Costs

With average trip cost already estimated for the Bangalore scenario, the final task in congestion

costing is to estimate the total hours lost due to congestion in Bangalore. The following tables

indicate the computations in accessing the total time lost due to congestion in Bangalore.

The calculations are based on the data and assumptions made earlier. Nearly 2.3 million hours of

time is getting wasted in Bangalore due to congestion. Since an average commuter is spending

about 91.35Rs/Hr due to the congested scenario, the same value can be considered as saving.

Thus the congestion costs in Bangalore can be considered as 208 million Rs per day.

Table 5 : Travel Time Savings due to Congestion Mitigation

6. How much Demotorisation is required?

It is interesting to investigate the number of vehicles that are on road or contributing for trips in

both the congested and sustainable scenario for Bangalore city. By observing the vehicle

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occupancy on various roads and comparing with the available data, the person trips-mode share

was converted into vehicle trips. Following chart summarizes the number of vehicles on road

0200000400000600000800000

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Tw o w heeler Car Bus IPT

Vehi

vula

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Existing Congested Ideal Mode Split Sustainable Mode Split

Figure 7 Number of Vehicles on Road for Different Scenario* Note: Ideal Mode Split: Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India, New Delhi 1998(modified)

Sustainable Mode Split: Akbar& Sudhir, World Transport Policy and Practice, 13-2-2007

On an average day, nearly 2.2 million vehicles are using the Bangalore roads. For achieving

sustainable transportation in Bangalore nearly 1.4 million two wheelers,72000 cars & 0.3 million

IPT trips needs to be reduced on roads. This can be achieved by increasing 42000 number of

buses on roads.

7. Conclusion

In this paper, the author has highlighted the rapid motorisation phenomenon of Bangalore city.

Such a high motorisation levels have transformed Bangalore from being a “Garden City” to a

“Vehicle City”. The future looks bleak with many companies rolling out small-cheap cars under the

banner of “People's Car” which may further increase the vehicle ownership. The government for

long has neglected the public transportation which induced such an concept of personal mobility

instead of people mobility.

The congestion terminology has long being exploited by the planners to roll out massive

investment projects such as road-widening, new roads, elevated flyovers-corridors. Such an

attitude has resulted in Bangalore being itself in vicious cycle of congestion-vehicles-supply-

landuse.

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In this paper, the author has proposed partial demotorisation of Bangalore by highlighting the issue

of congestion costs. Using various studies, the authors have computed the congestion costs for

Bangalore city which is nearly 208 million Rs/day. Such a massive burden due to concept of

personal mobility needs to be reviewed by the government. The inter city movement and freight

movements were not considered when computing the congestion costs due to scarcity of reliable

data. This may form the basis for future study.

Further the individual trip making characteristics needs to be modified by the government in order

to shift the mode split towards sustainable environment. The authors have computed the number

of vehicles that needs to be prevented on roads to have such an sustainable transportation.

An important question of “How to Demotorise?” has not been researched upon in this paper as it is

a research topic in itself. Research on this topic forms the future scope of research. Additionally

research needs to be done on environmental-accidents aspects of such motorisation which has

not been included in the present study. Traffic police has urged the government to implement

immediately the odd-even vehicle registration concept in CBD. This only shows the urgency/gravity

of the problem. Any steps taken without improving the public transportation would be myopic in

nature.

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3. T.V.Ramanayya & K.M. Anatharamaiah: Role of Intermediate Public Transport Scene of Bangalore4. RITES,2007, Comprehensive Traffic and Transportation Study for Bangalore City-2007 5. Sudharsham Padam & Sanjay Kumar Singh : Urbanisation and Urban Transport in India- The

search for policy6. Sudhir Gota & Sameera Kumar, 2007, “Bangalore- Silicon Capital or Black City, Arrive safe:

2007,http://www.arrivesafe.org/pdfs/Bangalore-Silicon_Capital_or_Black_City.pdf- Last accessed on 14/0102008

7. World Bank- Towards a discussion of Support to Urban Transport Development in India

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