Conformity Technical Document 2050 Plan BPbk

AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY DETERMINATION FOR THE OKI 2050 METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION PLAN AND THE OKI FY 2021‐FY2024 TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM FOR THE CINCINNATI‐HAMILTON OH‐KY‐IN AREA FOR NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR

QUALITY STANDARDS (NAAQS) – TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION

May 8, 2020

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BACKGROUND This report documents the conformity process used by OKI to determine that the OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (OKI MTP) and OKI FY 2021‐2024 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) are in conformance with the State Implementation Plans (SIP) of Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana and complies with the Clean Air Act.

In April 2018, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designated portions of nine counties in the Cincinnati area as a nonattainment area for ozone under the 2015 ozone standard (Figure 1). The 2015 Cincinnati ozone nonattainment area includes portions of the Kentucky counties of Boone, Campbell and Kenton, and the Ohio counties of Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren. The 2008 Cincinnati ozone maintenance area includes Lawrenceburg Township in Dearborn County Indiana, portions of the Kentucky counties of Boone, Campbell and Kenton, and the Ohio counties of Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Hamilton and Warren (Figure 2). Nonattainment and maintenance areas must demonstrate transportation conformity. Transportaiton conformity is a mechanism to ensure that federal funding and approval are given to those transportation activities that are consistent with air quality goals as contained in the State Implementation Plans (SIPs). OKI is responsible for the air quality conformity determination for the region’s Transportation Plan and Transportation Improvement Program. In February 2018, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit issued a decision in South Coast Air Quality Management District v. EPA. The decision impacts the Kentucky portion of the Cincinnati area that was formerly nonattainment (not meeting the national ambient air quality standard) under the 1997 ozone standard, but is now in attainment for all other standards (Figure 3). This “orphan area” includes the more rural southern tier of Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties. This area has not been subject to conformity since the 1997 ozone standard was vacated. In June 2018, OKI redemonstrated conformity with the 1997 ozone standard. U.S. DOT approval of the conformity determination occurred on Septebmer 6, 2018. Per recent guidance, OKI will continue to qualitatively demonstrate Kentucky’s conformity with the 1997 standards for future MTP and TIP amendments.

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Figure 1

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Figure 2

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Figure 3

OKI’S CONFORMITY PROCESS Air quality conformity involves the process of estimating mobile source emissions resulting from the implementation of transportation programs and projects and comparing those estimates to approved budgets by emission type (VOC and NOx) for various years described below. This is accomplished by estimating vehicle miles of travel and vehicle hours of travel through the use of travel demand models in conjunction with the EPA MOVES model. Central to travel demand forecasting are the transportation networks (highway and transit) as well as demographic data. Transportation networks OKI’s highway and transit networks include the existing transportation system plus all regionally significant, non‐exempt projects in the Plan and TIP regardless of funding source. A list of non‐exempt projects included in each transportation network is included in Appendix A. The networks specifically developed for use in this conformity process represented 2008 Ozone Maintenance budget years of 2020 and 2030, an interim year (2040) and the Metropolitan Transportation Plan horizon year (2050). All regionally significant projects regardless of the funding source were evaluated for their impacts on air quality in the maintenance area.

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The 2020 transportation network includes the current year transportation network.

The 2030 transportation network includes the 2020 network plus projects in the FY 2021‐2024 Transportation Improvement Program and OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan projects that are expected to be open to traffic before the year 2030.

The 2040 transportation network includes the 2030 network plus projects in the OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan that are expected to be open to traffic before the year 2040.

The 2050 transportation network includes the 2040 network plus projects in the OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan that are expected to be open to traffic before the year 2050.

Demographic Data Values for an array of socioeconomic variables are estimated (base year) and projected (intermediate and horizon years) as input into trip generation and modal choice components of the OKI travel demand model. These data are geographically recorded by transportation analysis zone (TAZ) which permits quantifying the amount of trip generating activity by zones of origin and destination. The OKI socioeconomic variables are identical to those used by the Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission model. The socioeconomic data are prepared for the base year to assist in validating the travel demand model to replicate current traffic conditions and for the analysis year to determine the travel demands to be accommodated within the planning period. The “snapshot” point in time for which the travel demand model generates results is a “weekday in spring.” Demographic data files are prepared for a base year (usually a year ending in 0 or 5) and a long range horizon year which is specified in the federal guidelines to be at least 20 years in the future. The number of TAZs currently being used is 2,067 and place holding zones are included for each county to permit expansion of the database as needed in the future. The base year for this database is 2015 with a 2050 horizon year for the 2020 metropolitan transportation plan update. Data has been developed and finalized for the 2015 base year, as well as intermediate years of 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050. It should also be noted that a few variables will not have values in some TAZs due to the absence of households, employment or workers in the base year data set. The TAZs should be checked in the future year to confirm that land uses have not changed the nature of the TAZ (thus requiring the determination of a value). A complete discussion of demographic data development is available in OKI Travel Demand Model Demographic Input Methodology for Preparing the Zonal Demographic Database April 2020 Update. A summary explanation of base year and future year planning data follows. All of the variables represent the latest OKI planning assumptions.

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Population

Base and Future Year Data: Population data for base year 2015 and future years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 originate with the 2010 Census of Population and Housing. Utilizing ArcGIS, population data at the zonal level for 2015 was derived from the area proportion allocation of block group level population. As a tri‐state regional planning agency, OKI uses the most current county level population projections as prepared by the respective state data centers (Ohio Development Services Agency Department of Research, Kentucky State Data Center and Indiana Business Research Center) as control totals. Projections based on the 2010 census for years 2020 to 2050 were released by the Ohio and Indiana state data centers in 2018. The Kentucky state data center in 2016, released population projections that go out to 2040. Growth rates for the decade of 2030 to 2040 were factored and adjusted based on age cohorts to ocme up with a 2050 projection for Kentucky counties. Population projections at the zonal level are calculated by multiplying household size by the projected zonal households. Household size is factored so that, in each county, the sum of the zonal populations equals the county control total.

Households

Base Year Data: Household data for base year 2015 originates with the 2010 Census of Population and Housing (revised May 2014). To advance the number of households from 2010 to 2015, new residential construction information was obtained. Individual permit records for new residential construction were acquired for the period January 1, 2010 through December 2014. Under the assumption that it takes about four months to build a house, permits issued in December 2014 would result in a completed structure in “the spring” of 2015. The permit locations were aggregated to TAZs using ArcGIS. Then two factors were applied to convert the housing units to households – unbuilt but permitted housing units and vacancy rates. About two percent of permitted units are not built (per the US Census Bureau) and about 20.2 percent of owner‐occupied residences and 10.1 percent of multi‐family housing units are vacant (per the US Census Bureau) in the Cincinnati Metropolitan Statistical Area in 2015. These adjustments to the new housing units by TAZ result in the conversion of housing units to households. Then the existing decennial year 2010 households in each TAZ were added to the newly aggregated households to establish the 2015 base year households. In sum, households by TAZ for 2015 equals the 2010 households plus additional new housing units minus demolitions and vacancies. Future Year Data: The preparation of household projections was accomplished by calculating the number of households for a projected county population using ratios of householders to total population by age specific cohorts derived from the 2010 Census for each analysis year. Disaggregation to TAZs was determined by historical trends, existing and future land use, topography, flood plain information, availability of land, local knowledge and other factors.

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Total Vehicles and Average Household Car Ownership

Base and Future Year Data: Base and future year household vehicle data were obtained from the 2010‐2014 American Community Survey. Average vehicles per household were calculated for block groups then applied to the TAZs associated with each block group. For the horizon year, the year 2015 vehicles per household could be retained. According to the 2009 National Household Travel Survey, the number of vehicles per household in 2009 almost equaled the number of licensed drivers. Therefore, an increase in the vehicles per household could produce an inflated number of trips in the model.

School Enrollment

Base Year Data: Enrollment of elementary and secondary schools were obtained from geographic information system GIS layer information and included in the socioeconomic database. Postsecondary educational institution enrollment was obtained from the National Center for Education Statistics website, then geocoded in ArcMap and assigned to a TAZ. Special circumstances such as part‐time enrollment and on‐line courses were accounted for in the model. Future Year Data: Future year elementary and high school enrollments by TAZ were based on the change in numbers of elementary age and high school age children between 2015 and each future year by county. The base year 2015 data and future year data was taken from the Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana state data centers’ population projections by age. The percent changes between the base year and future year for elementary and high school children at the county level were applied to all the TAZs in the county. Schools that were closed in 2015 were removed and those which were built since 2015 were added. Projections of enrollment for the larger institutions can be found in media articles or master plans. These projections are used when available; otherwise, the base year enrollment is retained.

Labor Force

Base and Future Year Data: The OKI labor force is a function of the population as determined by a labor force participation rate (the number of employed persons in the labor force per persons 16 and over). Labor force data for base year 2015 originates with 2010‐2014 American Community Survey. Utilizing the geographic information system ArcGIS, household data at the zonal level for 2010 was derived from the area proportion allocation of block group level employed labor force. Future year labor force projections were based on the most recent projections of national labor force participation rates by age and sex cohorts from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics for each of those years. These rates were then applied to the projected county age/sex cohorts and adjusted to eliminate the unemployed to arrive at a county employed labor force control total. Employed labor force at the zonal level is calculated by multiplying the labor force participation rate by the zonal population. The labor force participation rate is adjusted so that, in each county, the sum of the zonal labor force counts equals the control total.

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Employment

Base Year Data: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data for the first quarter of 2015 was utilized as the primary tool to calculate base year employment at the zonal level in Ohio and Kentucky. In Indiana, InfoUSA data for 2015 was utilized. Individual business records containing physical location, number of employees and North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code were geocoded in ArcGIS and aggregated to the TAZ level. This data set was supplemented by other sources of data to complete the commuting employment picture in the OKI region. Each zone’s employment was divided into 11 categories based on two‐digit NAICS sector codes. The categories represent sectors grouped according to their similarity in generating trips. Future Year Data: For future year employment projection, calculation was first made of the employment at the regional level. At the regional level, employment is a calculation of the region’s employed labor force minus workers who live in the region but commute out to work, plus workers who live outside the region but commute in to work. The regional total was disaggregated first to the county level based on historic trends and expected changes in the county’s share of the region’s employment and then to the TAZ level. Disaggregation to TAZs was determined by historical trends, existing and future land use, topography, flood plain information, availability of land, local knowledge and other factors.

Area Type

Base and Future Year Data: For each analysis year, each TAZ is assigned an area type designation as CBD, Urban, Suburban or Rural based on population and employment densities. OKI Travel Demand Model Vehicle miles traveled and vehicle hours were estimated using the OKI Travel Demand Model. The OKI model is an Activity‐Based Model (ABM). The OKI ABM utilizes the Coordinated Travel – Regional Activity Based Modeling Platform (CT‐RAMP) from Citilabs to simulate the travel pattern of all individual travelers in the region. The ABM estimates a schedule and itinerary of daily activities for members of every household in the region based on detailed information for individuals, households, trips, and highway and transit systems. Travel behavior modeling at fine spatial‐temporal resolution improves the accuracy of travel pattern estimates and enables the model to evaluate conventional highway and transit projects as well as to test a variety of policies and scenarios, including the adoption of connected and autonomous vehicles, tolling and congestion pricing, implementation of High‐Occupancy‐Vehicle (HOV) lanes, and land use planning. Model Validation OKI’s Travel Demand Model has been validated to observed traffic volumes for the model base year 2015. The modeling network encompasses the entire ozone Maintenance area with the exception of Clinton County, Ohio. The modeling network also includes Greene, Miami and Montgomery counties in Ohio and the remainder of Dearborn County Indiana.

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OKI incorporates a variety of sources of local data to both improve and confirm the accuracy of VMT, as well as other travel‐related parameters. Free flow speeds used on the highway and transit networks are based on travel time studies performed locally and the NPMRDS data. The 2015 Base Year model was validated against observed data, including 2015 traffic counts, StreetLight Origin‐Destination (O‐D) and travel distance data, and the 2012‐2016 Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP) Journey‐to‐work flow and residence and workplace data. A summary of the assigned and observed VMT in the base year by facility type is included in Table 1. The difference between estimated vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and 2015 observed VMT is about 16 percent. A percent difference of ‐36 percent between the observed and model data is found for local streets. This is partially due to the fact that only part of local streets are coded in the model highway network. The modeled arterial VMT is about 22 percent lower than the observed data. The differences between the estimated and observed data are relatively small for interstates and collectors, which are ‐7% and ‐4%, respectively.

Table 1 ‐ Vehicle miles traveled by facility type

Functional Classification Vehicle Miles Traveled

Observed Model 2015 Percent

Difference

Interstate 19,702,223 18,340,913 ‐7%

Freeway/Expressway 1,457,640 1,202,947 ‐17%

Arterial 18,712,550 14,532,332 ‐22%

Collector 8,512,898 8,211,699 ‐4%

Local 9,645,161 6,205,343 ‐36%

Total 58,030,472 48,493,234 ‐16%

Collector and Above Total 48,385,310 42,287,891 ‐13%

The model highway network includes about 1,540 links with daily and time‐of‐day traffic counts collected by INDOT, KYTC, ODOT, and OKI. The assigned volumes are compared with the observed counts by volume group, facility type, and area type at the regional level to ensure the validation results are acceptable. The assigned and observed volumes by volume group are shown in Table 2. The volume‐to‐count (VOL/CNT) ratio for each group is also included. For most of the volume groups, the volume to count ratio is close to 1. The total volume to count ratio of 1.04 and the overall percent root mean square error (%RMSE) of 36.3% indicates a good accuracy of the traffic assignment output.

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Table 2 ‐ Volume statistics by volume group

Volume Goup Observations Total Counts

Total Volume

VOL/CNT Ratio

RMSE %RMSE

<2500 229 395,394 579,793 1.47 1,814 105.10%

2500 ‐ 4999 361 1,328,369 1,642,230 1.24 3,155 85.80%

5000 ‐ 7499 273 1,705,234 1,840,595 1.08 3,302 52.90%

7500 ‐ 14999 338 3,541,787 3,759,864 1.06 4,885 46.60%

15000 ‐ 24999 141 2,701,706 2,949,974 1.09 5,706 29.80%

25000 ‐ 49999 85 3,252,139 2,966,747 0.91 9,370 24.50%

50000 ‐ 74999 106 6,680,539 6,654,934 1.00 8,039 12.80%

>75000 7 541,106 498,667 0.92 10,299 13.30%

Total 1,540 20,146,274 20,892,804 1.04 4,748 36.30%

Table 3 compares the traffic assignment results to the observations by facility type. The freeway and expressway volume to count ratio of 0.98 and 1.00 and the corresponding %RMSE of 18.2% and 29.5% indicates that the model is accurate in replicating counts on freeways and expressways. The estimated volumes are close to the counts for other facility types except for ramps.

Table 3 ‐ Volume statistics by facility type

Facility Type Observations Total Counts

Total Volume

VOL/CNT Ratio

RMSE %RMSE

Freeway 270 11,756,006 11,561,980 0.98 7,938 18.20%

Expressway 66 941,392 943,140 1 4,203 29.50%

Ramp 272 1,794,387 2,370,307 1.32 4,575 69.30%

Arterial 573 4,447,010 4,677,590 1.05 4,106 52.90%

Collector 287 990,209 1,092,397 1.1 1,897 55.00%

Local 72 217,270 247,390 1.14 1,900 63.00%

Total 1,540 20,146,274 20,892,804 1.04 4,748 36.30%

Table 4 compares the traffic assignment results by area type, including CBD, urban, suburban, and rural, with observed counts. Results show that the model is more accurate in suburban areas than in other areas. However, the overall volume to count ratios that are close to 1 demonstrate that the model replicates counts reasonably well across all area types in the region.

Table 4 ‐ Volume statistics by area type

Area Type Observations Total Counts

Total Volume

VOL/CNT Ratio

RMSE %RMSE

Rural 168 1,013,868 1,104,406 1.09 2,020 53.80%

Suburban 813 11,456,370 11,647,988 1.02 15,567 9.00%

Urban 544 7,406,333 7,857,181 1.06 8,062 29.60%

CBD 15 269,703 283,230 1.05 643 136.60%

Total 1,540 20,146,274 20,892,805 1.04 4,748 36.30%

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The raw 15‐minute traffic counts from INDOT, KYTC, ODOT, and OKI are also summarized by time periods of AM Peak, Midday, PM Peak, and Evening/Night Time (defined in the Chapter 1). Table 5 presents time‐of‐day distributions for traffic volumes and traffic counts. The time‐of‐day share of traffic volumes matches well with the time‐of‐day distribution of the traffic counts.

Table 5 ‐ Volume time‐of‐day distribution

Time‐of‐Day Total Counts Count % Share

Total Volumes

Model Volume % Share

VOL/CNT Ratio

AM Peak 3,721,289 18.30% 4,262,864 20.10% 1.15

Midday 6,545,879 32.20% 6,536,203 30.90% 1.00

PM Peak 5,841,385 28.70% 5,685,779 26.90% 0.97

Evening/Night 4,245,166 20.90% 4,680,490 22.10% 1.10

Total 20,353,719 100.00% 21,165,335 100.00% 1.04

A screen‐line analysis was another validation process that compares the screenline observed and simulated traffic volume discrepancies with the ODOT standard of maximum desirable deviation. The comparison shows that all screen‐line volume deviations are below the ODOT desired maximum deviation curve indicating that the model replicates the traffic counts reasonably well. For the calibration, OKI used over a thousand traffic counts collected in 2015 by OKI, the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT), the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) and local governments. Table 6 shows the comparisons of model volumes and counts at the defined screen‐lines. The model volume deviations are included and compared with the ODOT desired maximum volume deviations.

Table 6 ‐ Screen‐line summary

Screenline Counts Volumes Deviation Model vs.

Counts ODOT Desired Max

Deviation

A 338,506 379,085 12.0% 18.0%

B 534,756 564,629 6.0% 15.8%

C 118,670 99,284 16.0% 24.2%

D 429,148 407,833 5.0% 16.8%

E 584,233 546,077 7.0% 15.4%

F 262,894 245,590 7.0% 19.3%

G 240,285 260,594 8.0% 19.8%

H 226,005 216,793 4.0% 20.2%

I 506,530 496,050 2.0% 16.1%

J 181,223 155,256 14.0% 21.5%

K 810,728 795,786 2.0% 14.1%

L 317,497 329,405 4.0% 18.3%

M 221,881 213,215 4.0% 20.3%

N 401,077 384,506 4.0% 17.2%

O 289,422 322,656 11.0% 18.8%

P 424,550 464,664 9.0% 16.9%

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Screenline Counts Volumes Deviation Model vs.

Counts ODOT Desired Max

Deviation

Q 206,261 224,824 9.0% 20.7%

R 189,102 213,073 13.0% 21.2%

S 186,189 213,868 15.0% 21.3%

T 80,764 92,995 15.0% 27.0%

U 75,513 73,358 3.0% 27.5%

V 76,141 91,416 20.0% 27.4%

W 40,144 42,261 5.0% 32.8%

X 143,110 157,193 10.0% 22.9%

Y 86,922 101,897 17.0% 26.4%

Z 110,903 102,197 8.0% 24.7%

Post‐Model Processing During post‐processing, the loaded highway network is used to generate VMT by time of day, VMT by speed distribution and VMT by facility type. These tables are then included as input into MOVES. Two separate sets of VMT tables are generated: one for the four Ohio counties plus Dearborn County Indiana, and a second for the three Kentucky counties. The VMT by time of day tables utilize hourly traffic distribution and directional split factors for different roadway types as developed by OKI. The main source of the data was the permanent traffic counting stations located throughout the OKI region during 2015. This data was supplemented with data collected at coverage count stations (locations with counts taken on only one‐two days). The stations were classified by area type: urban, rural, suburban, CBD; and functional classification: freeway, expressway, ramp, arterial, local and collector. Speeds representing various “loaded” conditions (with traffic volumes) are estimated using techniques from the Highway Capacity Manual. This permits the estimation of speeds as conditions vary from hour to hour on the different facility types throughout the region. The program performs the appropriate summation by area and roadway type as well as regional totals. OKI has also developed seasonal conversion factors to adjust traffic volumes to summer conditions. The factors were derived for June, July and August from local data collected at permanent traffic counting stations. Emission Factor Models OKI’s conformity assessment utilized U.S.EPA’s emission model MOVES2014b to develop emission factors for VOC’s and NOx. The MOVES input files contain local parameters, developed through consultation with state partners, for temperature, fuel programs, fuel characteristics, and vehicle fleet composition. The local parameters are combined with the VMT and speed data from the OKI ABM to produce emission factors measured in grams per mile and grams per vehicle for the appropriate analysis year. These emission factors are then multiplied by VMT and vehicle population. The methodologies incorporated into MOVES for estimating emissions are based on methods and research conducted by U.S.EPA. OKI’s development of MOVES input values were guided by the U.S.EPA’s document “MOVES2014, MOVES2014a, and MOVES2014b Technical Guidance: Using MOVES to Prepare Emission Inventories for State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity”, August 2018.

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Table 7 summarizes the settings used in the MOVES run specification file. Table 8 lists the data and sources used in the MOVES County‐Data Manager.

Table 7 ‐ MOVES Run specification file

MOVES RunSpec Parameter Settings

MOVES2014b‐20181203;

Scale County, Emission Rates

Time Span Time aggregation = Hour July weekday, Monthly meteorological data All hours of day selected Weekdays only

Geographic Bounds Custom Domains for each county in Ohio (Butler, Clermont, Hamilton, Warren), Indiana (Dearborn), and Kentucky (Boone, Campbell, Kenton)

Vehicles/Equipment All source types available for gasoline and diesel.

Road Type All road types including off‐network

Pollutants and Processes VOC; hydrocarbons; Non‐Methane Organic Gases; Total Organic Gases; Methane; CO; NO; NO2; N20; PM2.5 Total; PM2.5: Composite NonECPM, Elemental Carbon, Organic Carbon, Sulfate Particulate; PM2.5 – Brakewear Particulate; PM2.5 – Tirewear Particulate; SO2; Total Energy Consumption; Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption; Atmosphere CO2; and CO2 Equivalent

Strategies Default

General Output Units= grams, joules and miles

Output Emissions Time = day, Location =county, on‐road emission rates by road type and source use type.

Advanced Performance none

Table 8 ‐ MOVES County‐Data manager data and sources

MOVES County Data Manager Data Source

Source Type Population Local. County motor vehicle registration data from KYTC (2019) and ODOT (2017). Dearborn County data are estimated through the vehicle and population distribution data in Butler County. Model year data are estimated through the population ratio between the base and model years.

Vehicle Type VMT Local. County DVMT (daily vehicle mile traveled, 2015) from ODOT, KYTC, and INDOT. Model year VMTs are estimated through the ratio between the observed and the data from OKI 2015 travel demand model. MonthVMTFraction, dayVMTFraction, and hourVMTFraction are estimated

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MOVES County Data Manager Data Source

through the traffic counts from ODOT permanent traffic count stations in OKI region.

I/M Programs No I/M Program for Kentucky and Indiana counties. Default setting for Ohio counties.

Fuel Supply Default

Meteorology Data Local. CVG average numbers from 1999 to 2019.

Ramp Fraction Local. OKI travel demand model.

Road Type Distribution Local. OKI travel demand model.

Age Distribution Local. County vehicle age data from ODOT (2017) and KYTC (2019). Future year distributions are estimated through EPA’s vehicle age estimation tool.

Average Speed Distribution Local. OKI travel demand model.

Complete MOVES input and output files are available electronically upon request. DESCRIPTION OF CONFORMITY TESTS The selection of anlaysis years and tests were determined through interagency consultation with federal, state and local partners and in accordance with 40 CFR 23.118(d)(2). The selection of analysis year 2050 represents the “build” condition of the entire OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan.

Table 9 ‐ Conformity analysis years and tests Ozone

Ozone

Attainment status: Ozone maintenance area – 2020 standard.

Geography: Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Hamilton, & Warren Counties in Ohio; Boone (partial), Campbell (partial), & Kenton Counties (partial) in Kentucky; Dearborn County (partial) in Indiana

A/Q Budget Status: Budgets for 2008 Ozone Standard determined adequate and effective 09/2016 for OH/IN and 04/2018 for KY. Use 2008 budgets until new budgets established for 2015 ozone.

SIP Commitments: No SIP commitments. RFG summer fuel removed from Kentucky. Summer‐blend fuel commitments removed from Ohio.

Conformity Tests: 8‐Hour ozone budget tests of OKI Plan/TIP & Clinton Co.TIP analysis year networks. 24‐hour summer emissions.

Analysis Years: 2020 and 2030 Budget years, 2040 Interim year, and 2050 Plan horizon year.

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Ozone

Other: ODOT provided Clinton Co. ozone emissions to OKI. OKI performs conformity analysis for Warren County portion of MVRPC.

CONFORMITY DETERMINATION FOR THE OHIO AND INDIANA PORTION OF THE NONATTAINMENT AREA OKI has determined that the projects in this OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan and FY2021‐2024 TIP are consistent with the air quality goals of the SIP and the conformity requirements under the 8‐hour ozone standard. OKI’s quantitative conformity findings for ozone‐forming emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) in the Ohio and Indiana portion of the ozone maintenance area are found in Table 10. Table 10 ‐ Quantitative Conformity Findings of Ozone‐forming Emissions (tons per day) for

the Ohio* and Indiana Portion** of the Maintenance Area – 2008 and 2015 Ozone Standards

2020 2030 2040 2050

Ohio/Indiana VOC Budget 30.00 18.22 18.22 18.22

Ohio/Indiana VOC Emissions 15.81 7.68 5.59 5.27

Ohio/Indiana NOx Budget 30.79 16.22 16.22 16.22

Ohio/Indiana NOx Emissions 22.99 8.57 5.62 5.61*Includes the Counties of Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Hamilton, and Warren in Ohio. **Includes Lawrenceburg Township, Dearborn County, Indiana.

VOC and NOx emissions in the Ohio and Indiana portion of the ozone maintenance area do not exceed the VOC or NOx budgets for the budget years 2020 and 2030, the interim year 2040, or the Plan year 2050.

OKI qualitatively finds no factors in the OKI FY 2021‐2024 TIP or the OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan that would cause or contribute to a new daily ozone violation or exacerbate an existing violation in the years before 2020 for the Ohio and Indiana portion of the nonattainment area.

OKI qualitatively finds that no goals, directives, recommendations or projects identified in the OKI FY 2021‐2024 TIP or the OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan contradict in a negative manner any specific requirements or commitments of the applicable state implementation plan.

The applicable implementation plans do not contain any transportation control measures (TCM’s), therefore; nothing in OKI FY 2021‐2024 TIP or the OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan can interfere with their timely implementation.

CONFORMITY DETERMINATION FOR THE KENTUCKY PORTION OF THE MAINTENANCE AREA

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OKI has determined that the recommended projects in this OKI FY 2021‐2024 TIP and the OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan are consistent with the air quality goals of the SIP and the conformity requirements under the 2008 and 2015 ozone standards. OKI’s quantitative conformity findings for ozone‐forming emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) are found in Tables 11. The MVEB’s for the 2008 ozone standard were approved in April 2018.

Table 11 ‐ 2008 and 2015 Ozone Standards ‐ Previous Regional Emissions Analysis of Ozone‐

forming Emissions (tons per day) for the Kentucky Portion of the Nonattainment/Maintenance Area (partial counties)

2020 2030 2040 2050

N. Kentucky VOC Budget 4.36 2.86 2.86 2.86

N. Kentucky VOC Emissions 4.09 1.81 1.15 1.09

N. Kentucky NOx Budget 9.03 5.19 5.19 5.19

N. Kentucky NOx Emissions 6.07 2.34 1.36 1.39

*Includes portions of Boone, Campbell, and Kenton Counties in Kentucky.

For the 2008 and 2015 ozone standards, VOC and NOx emissions in the Kentucky portion of the ozone maintenance area do not exceed the VOC or NOx budgets for the budget years 2020 and 2030, the interim year 2040, or the Plan year 2050.

For the 1997 ozone nonattainment “orphan” area in Northern Kentucky, OKI qualitatively finds that the OKI FY 2021‐2024 TIP and the OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan meet all conformity requirements.

OKI qualitatively finds that no goals, directives, recommendations or projects identified in the OKI FY 2021‐2024 TIP and the OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan contradict in a negative manner any specific requirements or commitments of the applicable state implementation plans.

The applicable implementation plan in Kentucky does not contain any transportation control measures (TCM’s), therefore; nothing in the OKI FY 2021‐2024 TIP and the OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan can interfere with their timely implementation.

I. INTERAGENCY CONSULTATION AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT OKI has engaged in consultation procedures with the Indiana Department of Transportation, the Indiana Department of Environmental Management, the Ohio Department of Transportation, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, the Kentucky Division of Air Quality, Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the U.S. Department of Transportation before making this conformity determination and throughout the conformity process as appropriate. The criteria and procedures for the conformity determination of transportation plans, programs and projects are found in the OKI Transportation Conformity Consultation Memorandum of Understanding as

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adopted by the OKI Board of Directors in 2008. Interagency consultation for this conformity analysis was initiated on April 16, 2020. This document, in draft form, was distributed via email. Any interagency comments are included below. The OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan was developed with significant attention to public involvement in accordance with OKI’s Participation Plan, January 2018. Notice of the availability of the draft documents, the announcement of the public comment period and the June 8, 2020 public hearing were published in several local newspapers and on the OKI website and through social media in May 2020. Beginning May 8, 2020 the draft conformity report was made available for public inspection on OKI’s website and at OKI’s office. Comments specifically regarding this conformity determination are included in the Appendix. Information on general comments received, and details on the entire public involvement process may be found in the TIP document. All public comments and the conformity results were reported to the OKI Board of Directors on June 10, 2020.

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APPENDIX A Non‐Exempt Project Listing

Plan ID Location DescriptionFacilityPID

Non-Exempt Projects Beyond Existing System Included in Transportation Networks

Additional Non-Exempt Projects Identified for the 2030 Transportation Network

IndianaDearborn

9749 SR 1 Ridge Ave to Oberting Rd Add 1 lane each direction

KentuckyBoone

9874 KY 236 KY 842 (Houston Rd) to KY 3076 (Mineola Pike)

Widen to 2 lanes each direction

9908 KY 3076 KY 236 to I 275 Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

5030 Ted Bushelman Boulevard Along Ted Bushelman Boulevard Widen to 4 lanes and 2-way left turn lane6-439

4662 Mall Road Connector Ph 1&2

Between KY 237 (Pleasant Valley Rd) and KY 3157 (Mall Rd)/I-75 Interchange

New 4 lanes road from KY 237 to Mall Road6-446

4656 I-275 At Graves Road New Interchange at I-275 and Graves Road6-78.00

4656 I-275 At Graves Road New Interchange at I-275 and Graves Road6-78.01

510 KY 3076 (Mineola Pike) I-275 to KY 236 (Donaldson Rd.) Widen from two to four lanes6-445

Campbell5027 I-275/AA Connector Between I-275 and the AA Highway (KY

9)Construct a new connector road6-8105.00

5027 I-275/AA Connector Johns Hill Road to AA Highway (KY 9) Toll credits as match

New 2-lane road with center turn lane6-8105.06

303 IR 471 KY 8 interchange Construct a new southbound off-ramp from I-471 to KY 8

6-8104.00

335 KY 536 US 27 to AA Highway (KY 9) Extension of existing roadway6-352

Kenton9829 KY 536 East end of the NS RR bridge to KY 1303 Widen to 2 lanes each direction

9910 KY 8 Bridge over Licking River Widen to 2 lanes each direction

9863 I-71/75 (Brent Spence Bridge)

US 25 to Brent Spence 5 lanes SB, 4 lanes NB

702 IR 75 MP 191.277 to 191.777--Brent Spence Bridge

KY portion of Brent Spence Bridge replacement

6-17.03

715 KY 536 Boone County Line to KY 17 Widen to 4 lane divided roadway6-162.01

715 KY 536 Boone County Line to KY 1303 (Priority Section 1) DES under parent 6-162.01

Widen to 4 lane divided roadway6-162.20

5028 KY 1303 KY 536 to Beechgrove Elementary Widen to four lanes and center turn lane6-162.10

OhioButler

9643 S. Gilmore Rd Resor Rd to Mack Rd Add 1 lane SB. (2 lanes each direction)

9601 Cincinnati Dayton Rd Liberty One Dr to Bethany Rd Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

4849 BUT SR 129 25.00 Liberty Way

SR-129 interchange with Liberty Way and IR-75; Cox Road north of Liberty Way

SR-129 extended east to Cox Rd.104195

Clermont9737 SR 32 Glen Este-Withamsville Rd overpass New grade separated interchange

9738 SR 32 Glen Este-Withamsville Rd ramps New grade separated interchange at GEW

4363 CLE CR 388 (Bach Buxton)

Bach Buxton to Marina Drive Realigning Bach Buxton to align with proposed SR32 interchange

103953

4363 CLE 32-2.65 between MP 2.65 and 4.98 Widen to 3 lanes WB103956

4363 CLE 32-2.33 Glen Este Withamsville ramps and CD Road

New grade-separated interchange at GEW Road, add 1 lane each direction to Old SR74

103957

4363 CLE CR 55 Overpass Glen Este Withamsville Overpass over SR32

New grade-separated interchange at GEW103958

4363 CLE 32-2.88 EB 32 ramp to Clepper Lane Ramp from SR32 East Bound to Clepper Lane103959

Appendix, Page 1 of 607-May-20




US 52 within Village of New Richmond Convert four lanes of US 52 into two lanes and provide bike/ped path at former SB lanes.

NP-CMAQ3

Hamilton10000 SORTA Bus Rapid Transit

Phase IaGlenway Ave corridor Headway: 15 min peak, 30 min offpeak.

Glenway between State and Bridgetown; Reading between MLK and

9787 Fields Ertel Rd Snider to I-71 Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

9968 I-71/75 (Brent Spence Bridge)

Ohio River to Western Hills Viaduct Widen to 14 lane Ohio River crossing

9975 I-75 NB Galbraith Rd to Shepherd Rd Widen to 4 lanes each direction

10001 SORTA Bus Rapid Transit Phase Ib

Reading Rd corridor Headway: 15 min peak, 30 min offpeak. Glenway between State and Bridgetown; Reading between MLK and

9930 SR 32 Round Bottom Road to Little Dry Run Widen to 2 EB through lanes

9712 Red Bank Rd. Erie Ave to Duck Creek Rd Widen to 3 lanes each direction

9974 I-75 SB Shepherd Rd to Galbraith Rd Widen to 4 lanes each direction

301 IR 71 Part of the Brent Spence Bridge project Ohio's share of design and construction of the new Ohio River Bridge

89077

338 IR 71 0.1 mi south of Williams Avenue Overpass to 0.04 mi north of Red Bank (SLM 6.86-9.74)

Widen northbound IR-71 to provide three continuous through lanes through the SR-562 interchange.

94741

304 HAM IR 74 18.01 From just west of Colerain interchange with I-74 to I-75

MCE Ph5B, split from PID 83723. Interchange and I-75 ramps to I-74 WB

104668

316 IR 75 Glendale Milford Road to IR 275 Add 4th lane each direction with an auxilliary lane where warranted, upgrade interchanges. TTV Ph8

76256

307 HAM IR 75 7.85 Begin south of SR562 interchange and at the SR126 interchange, 7.85 to 10.30

Widen for additional through lanes, reconstruct interchanges as needed. MCE Phases 8 and 8A

77889

312 IR 75 0.3 mi S of Shepherd to 0.2 mi N of Glendale-Milford

Reconstruct IR 75 between Shepherd Lane and Glendale-Milford Road. TTV Phase 1

82288

314 HAM IR 75 10.10 1010 Bridge over Mill creek to Galbraith Road (phase 3)

Add 4th lane in each direction and associated improvements. TTV Phase 3

88124

314 IR 75 Between Galbraith Rd and Shepherd Ln, SB only

Add one lane SB. TTV Phase 588132

314 IR 75 Between Galbraith Rd and Shepherd Ln, NB only

Add 4th lane and auxiliary lane for NB IR 75. TTV Phase 6

88133

301 IR 75 Brent Spence Bridge (Ohio only) Brent Spence Bridge replacement (Ohio portion)

89068

Warren10062 Gateway Blvd Gateway Blvd to Butler-Warren Rd and

Cox ExtensionNew extension. 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

10060 Kings Island Drive Great Wolf Drive to Kingsview Drive Widen to 3 lanes NB between Great Wolf Drive to Kings Mill. Widen to 2 lanes each direction from Ki

10058 Snider Rd Western Row to US 42 Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

10056 Mason-Morrow-Millgrove Rd

US 42 to Columbia Rd/Mason-Morrow-Milgrove Rd


10051 Kings Mills Rd I-71 to Oak Street Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

10030 US 22/3 SR 48 to West Rd Widen to 2 lanes each direction

9962 SR-63 Union Rd to SR 741 Widen to 2 lanes each direction

IR 71 19.83/0.00 Mason Montgomery Rd to SB I-71 New 2-lane ramp from MM to SB I-71104844

339 IR 71 IR 71 at Western Row Road Convert existing partial interchange to full interchange with new ramps and auxiliary lanes

93964

3740 SR 48 Nunner Road to north of Ridgeview Lane/Saddle Creek Lane

Widen to two lanes each direction with TWLTL112909





3713 WAR SR63 0.83 Between Union Road and east of the SR 741 intersection

Widen from 2 to 4 lanes112121

3678 SR 741 from Spy Glass Hill (SLM 2.19) to Weldon Drive (SLM 3.06)

Widen SR 741 to 2 travel lanes each direction with left turn lanes at all intersections.

103753

3678 SR 741 Between Cox-Smith Road and Spy Glass Hill Road

Widen to two lanes each direction with TWLTLNP-STBG8





IndianaDearborn

9750 SR 1 US-50 to Ridge Ave Add 1 lane each direction

KentuckyBoone

10008 Dixie Highway Pike St to Ewing Blvd High frequency bus service between Florence and Covington. 15 minute headway. AM/MD/PM

9867 Mall Rd Connector KY 237 (Pleasant Valley Rd) to Mall Rd/I75 Interchange

New Route/extension

9577 KY 18 (Burlington Pike) Widening

Springfield Boulevard to KY 338 (Jefferson Street)


9871 KY 18 KY 842 and Mall Rd intersections Add 1 lane eah direction with grade separated interchanges

9574 KY 842 (Richardson Rd) US 25 (Dixie Hwy) to Boone County Line Widen to 2 lanes each direction

507 KY 236 (Donaldson Road) from Houston Road (KY 842) to Mineola Pike (KY 3076)

Widen from two to four lanes6-444

Kenton9826 KY 1303 (Crestview Hills

Mall/Thomas More Alignmen

I-275 EB exit/entrance ramps to Thomas More Blvd

Align Town Center Blvd and TMP intersections. Add 1 lane SB from I-275 to TMP.

9866 KY 536 Williamswood Rd to KY 17 Widen to 2 lanes each direction

9865 KY 536 KY 1303 to Williamswood Rd Widen to 2 lanes each direction

9899 KY 536 KY 16 (Taylor Mill Rd) to KY 177 (Decoursey Pike)


OhioButler

9635 North Hamilton Crossing Phase 1

NW Washington Boulevard to US 127 New Route/extension

9965 I-75 New interchange at Millikin Rd New interchange and widen Millikin to 2 lanes each direction

9666 Wayne Madison Rd Great Miam River to SR 73 Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

9636 North Hamilton Crossing Phase 2

US 127 to SR 4 New Route/extension

9648 SR 4 Muhlhauser to Crescentville Widen to 3 lanes SB

Clermont4363 CLE CR 171 (Old SR74) Old SR 74 Schoolhouse to SR 32 Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL103955

4363 CLE 32-3.50 near intersection with Bach Buxton Road Grade separation at Bach Buxton and add 1 lane each direction between GEW and Old 74

103954

Hamilton10097 SORTA Bus Rapid Transit

Phase 2AMontgomery Rd Construction of BRT route on Montgomery Rd.

approx 10 miles of BRT

9784 Interstate 275 WB Winton Rd to Colerain Ave Widen to 4 lanes WB

10098 SORTA Bus Rapid Transit Phase 2B

Hamilton Ave Construction of BRT route on Hamilto Av. Approx 10 miles of BRT

9711 Reading Rd (US 42) Clinton Springs to Paddock Widen to 3 lanes each direction

9953 I-71 SR 126 to Pfeiffer Widen to 4 lanes NB

Warren10042 SR 741 I-71 to Center Dr Widen to 3 lanes each direction

10037 SR 63 SR 741 to Neil Armstrong Way Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

10031 US 22/3 West Rd to Zoar Rd Widen to 2 lanes each direction

9946 US 22/3 Old Mill Rd to SR 48 Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL





9961 SR 48 Mason-Morrow-Millgrove Rd to Stephens Rd

Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL





KentuckyBoone

9894 KY 20 Graves Rd to KY 237 (North Bend Rd) Widen to 2 lanes each direction

9584 Camp Ernst Rd KY 536 (Hathaway Rd) to Long Branch Rd


9883 US 42 KY 237 to KY 842 Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

9881 US 25 Winning Colors Drive to the Norfolk Southern RR x-ing south of KY 1829

Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

Campbell10089 NKY Streetcar Phase 1 Newport Extension of Cincinnati Streetcar to Newport

(Phase 1)

Kenton9836 KY 17 (Madison Ave)

Enhanced Transit CorridorCovington Transit Center to the TANK Fort Wright Transit Hub

high frequency bus service between Ft. Wright and Covington. 15 minute headway. AM/MD/PM

10091 KY 8 (5th St) from I-71/75 NB off ramp to Main St Widen from 2 to 3 lanes

9905 KY 536 KY 17 to KY 16 Widen to 2 lanes each direction

OhioButler

9959 SR 747 Millikin Rd to SR 4 (N. Jct) Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

Hamilton9786 Dry Fork Rd Corridor I- 74 to New Haven Rd Add through lanes

Warren10046 Columbia Rd Fields-Ertel to Socialville-Fosters Rd Widen to 2 lanes each direction with TWLTL

10059 Bethany Rd Mason Corp Limit to Mason-Morrow-Millgrove Rd



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APPENDIX B Interagency Consultation and

Public Comments

OKI Interagency Consultation for Transportation Conformity 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan

April 16, 2020, 2:00 pm EDT Conference Call

Meeting Notes:

Participants

Tony Maietta, EPA Region 5

Dianna Myers, EPA Region 4

Frank Burkett, FHWA‐Ohio

Erica Tait, FHWA‐Indiana

Bernadette Dupont, FHWA‐Kentucky

Jordan Whisler, ODOT

Nate Brugler, ODOT

Scott Brown, ODOT

Dane Blackburn, KYTC District 6

Matt Dutkevicz, Butler County RTA

Jahan Khan, KYTC

Todd Listerman, Dearborn County

Ana Ramirez, MVRPC

Tonya Higdon, KYTC

Mary Huller, SORTA

Bob Koehler, OKI

Brett Porter, OKI

Andy Reser, OKI

Liren Zhou, OKI

Brandon Rudd, OKI

Andy Reser of OKI explained the background material that was sent prior to the conference call. The background material included 1) a project list indicating exempt/non‐exempt, the current number of lanes and lanes after project completion, and network year; 2) the OKI Travel Model Validation Report; 3) OKI Travel Demand Model Demographic Input Methodology for Preparing the Zonal Demographic Database; and 4) a conformity summary. Mr. Reser indicated that a conformity technical document will be provided to the IAC once conformity results are available in early May. Mr. Reser provided a brief schedule. The conformity analysis will be completed by May 4th with the Draft

MTP and conformity analysis available to the IAC shortly after. The formal public comment period is set

to begin on May 8th. A public survey on long range needs has been conducted with a few thousand

responses. OKI will hold a virtual public hearing for formal public comments. The MTP is scheduled for

adoption at the June 11th OKI policy board meeting.

Mr. Reser provided a summary of the conformity analysis. The Cincinnati area includes the 2015 ozone

nonattainment area and the 2008 ozone maintenance area. Boundaries are identical except Clinton

County Ohio and Dearborn County Indiana are excluded from the 2015 nonattainment area. The

conformity analysis is using the 2008 ozone budgets. No budgets are yet approved for the 2015

standard. The analysis years consist of the 2020 and 2030 budget years, the 2040 interim year and the

2050 Plan year. The budget thresholds for VOC and NOx were included in the meeting packet. OKI will

be using MOVES2014b and generating emissions by county using inventory mode. Details on the MOVES

run specifications will be included in the technical documentation. There are no TCM’s.

The meeting was opened questions and comments. Below is a summary of questions and answers:

Andy Reser: What are the requirements for the 1997 ozone standard due to the South Coast

decision?

o (Dianna Myers and Tony Maietta) OKI should include a map of the 1997 ozone area and

document a conformity finding stating that standards are met. A regional emissions

analysis is not necessary to address the 1997 standard as required in 93.109(c).

However, all of the other conformity requirements must be met.

Andy Reser: Is there something else we need to provide?

o Bernadette Dupont: Seems like you have everything.

o Andy Reser: Still working on providing all relevant information.

Are you going to provide the type of gasoline used in the model? (Bernadette Dupont)

o Andy Reser: Yes, it will be documented. We are using standard gasoline formulations.

No longer have reformulated or low‐RVP gasoline requirements.

Where do we get the transit ridership and information changes over time? (Bernadette Dupont)

o Bob Koehler: We get data from local agencies and then consult with them for future

year outputs.

Is the Cincinnati Street Car in the model? (Bernadette Dupont)

o Bob Koehler: Yes, it is part of the transit network in the model.

Where do we get the congestion information from? (Bernadette Dupont)

o Bob Koehler: The information comes from the CMP. The results are used to help score

the Plan projects.

Does the 100 bottlenecks in the US correlate with the CMP? (Bernadette Dupont)

o Bob Koehler: Yes, the results match up with the CMP. We also had a conversation a few

weeks back with FHWA and KYTC regarding those results.

Brandon Rudd proved addition information on the demographic projects: The demographic

projections are developed using state data center projections at the county level and adjusted

slightly to reflect current growth trends. Then several sources, such as future land use plans and

local zoning ordinances, are used to allocate the data to TAZs. Once the preliminary datasets

were developed, OKI staff met with local officials to make sure that the projections reflected

their observations of growth areas and were adjusted based on their feedback.

Bob Koehler: Anna Ramirez (MVRPC) works with OKI to develop the Transportation Model. They

provide the demographics for the communities within their boundary.

What are the current and future background concentrations of pollutants? (Bernadette Dupont)

o Andy Reser: We can document what the concentrations have been. We forecast vehicle

emissions only, not future pollutant concentrations.

Andy Reser: We are working on coding the networks and then will run the model, followed by

MOVES

Todd Listerman (Dearborn County) – Project 9757 – Location should be listed as “US 50 to Salt

Fork Road”

The meeting was adjourned.

Conformity Technical Document 2050 Plan BPbk

Documents

Transcript of Conformity Technical Document 2050 Plan BPbk