Conflict Prevention: policy objectives in development and

aid agendas?

Sakiko Fukuda-Parr

CRISE 10 July, 2007

Conflict prevention as policy objective of aid

Consensus policy objective is to reduce poverty and achieve MDGs through economic growth.

• Reflected in literature on aid effectiveness• Reflected in allocation priorities• Reflected in evaluation criteria

Conflict prevention as a policy objective of aid• As a means to achieving the MDGs• As an end in itself/for human security

MDGs: 65 worst performing countries are vulnerable to conflict

Main points

• Not all development is good for preventing conflict• Aid has important influence on policies that shape

development patterns and on parties who shape conflict dynamics

• Social policies, economic policies and governance reforms can address socio-economic risk factors

• Review of PRSPs shows lack of attention to risk factors• Adopting conflict prevention as aid policy objective would

lead to different aid policies – allocation criteria, evaluation criteria, etc.

Development is not always good for peace and security

Development can raise risks of conflict when it worsens:• Horizontal inequalitites • Environmental stress• Overdependence on mineral resources • Youth bulge, unemployment and exclusion • Neighbourhood spillover • state legitimacy

Links: Economic policies, social policies, governance reforms

Development policy priorities: Nepal, Liberia, Guatemala

• Review of national poverty reduction strategies in 3 countries Dec 06 – March 07

• Characteristics- unequal development and ethnic exclusion - Overdependence on natural resources (Liberia)- Environmental pressure/disputes over land and

food insecurity- Weak state capacity and high degree of distrust

of the state

State – citizen relations: common features in 3 countries from UN

special rapporteurs• High levels of impunity• State security forces involved in crime. History of

state sponsored violence• Violence against women• High levels of food insecurity• Discrimination against indigenous and ethnic

groups• Low intensity conflicts, land disputes • Lack of human rights protection and gross

violations eg human trafficking for prostitution and body organs

Development policy: Nepal PRSP

• Nepal PRSP/5 year plan: - inadequate attention to employment

creating growth- poverty reduction due to remittances not

domestic growth- political restructuring emphasizes political

representation of ‘excluded groups’ but not more equitable economic and social policies

Development policy: Liberia PRSP

• Liberia interim PRS (Jan 2007)- priority to restoring traditional sectors

(rubber, timber, minerals) as engines of growth

- inadequate attention to agriculture and rural livelihoods

- lack of attention to distributional impacts of social infrastructure development

- relief efforts concentrated in Monrovia

Development policy

• Guatemala 1996 Peace accord committments: budget analysis

• lowest expenditures for education & health in Central America

• lowest tax revenues in central America (9.5% GDP)

• social allocation ratio 6.1% Guatemala; 18.1% Costa Rica

Donor policies

• ‘Part of the problem’? – Nepal, Liberia• Donors and government in denial of risks, ‘turn a

blind eye’• Reactive rather than preventive• DAC principles: Reactive not proactive –

emphasize ‘Do no harm’ • Disparate definitions of fragile states• Fragile state category based on development

outcomes not underlying conditions