CONFLICT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

CONFLICT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEADAY ONE• GEOGRAPHIC ORIENTATION

• Economic Importance

• RELATED “BIG BACKGROUND ISSUES”• U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations (through 1990s); China-Japan, China-India Interactions• Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)

• CUSTOMARY INTERNATIONAL LAW AND THE UN CONVENTION ON THE LAW OF THE SEA (UNCLOS)

• International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS)

• TERRITORIAL CLAIMS• Quick Overview of claims

• Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam• China “9 DASH LINE”

CONFLICT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEADAY TWO• TERRITORIAL CLAIMS (Continued)

• Specific Island Groups & Claims:• Pratas, Paracels, Scarborough Shoal, Spratlys, & Natunas• “Great Wall of Sand” - Island Building

• 2016 ITLOS Ruling

• CURRENT TENSIONS• Local Issue vs Emerging China?• Update on U.S. China Relations - Tiananmen Square 1990’s Onward• Chinese Economic and Military Strategy

• LOOKING FORWARD

YELLOWSEA

EAST CHINASEA

SOUTH CHINASEA

Korea Japan

Taiwan

PRC

India

Russia

Spratly Islands

ParacelIslands Scarborough

Shoal

Gulf of Thailand

NatunaIslands

Straight ofMalacca

Singapore

Gulf of Tonkin

PratasIslands

MacclesfieldBanks

AnambasIslands

1400 nm north to south700 nm east to west

VITAL SEA LANE• Second most used sea lane in the world.

• 5X Greater than Panama. 3X Greater than Suez.

• Over 35-50% of world annual merchant fleet tonnage, passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait, and the Lombok Strait.

• Over 1.6 million m³ (11 million barrels) of crude oil a day are shipped through the Strait of Malacca.

From Sunda Strait

From Lombak Strait

SOUTH CHINA SEA RESOURCES

•OIL: Proven reserves of around 1.2 km³ (7.7 billion barrels), with estimate of 4.5 km³ (28 billion barrels) in total.

• In 2014 China began to drill for oil in waters disputed with Vietnam.

•NATURAL GAS: Estimated reserves around 7,500 km³ (266 trillion cubic feet).

SOUTH CHINA SEA RESOURCES

•FISH: Holds one third of the entire world's marine biodiversityaccording to Philippine Department of Environment and Natural Resources.

• 12% of 2016 global catch.• However the fish stocks in the area are depleted, and

countries are using fishing bans as a means of asserting their sovereignty claims.

TAIWAN REPUBLIC OF CHINA (ROC) • Chinese Civil War (End of WWII)

• Chinese Nationalists (Chiang Kai-shek) vs Communists (Mao Zedong)• 1949 Nationalists flee to Taiwan.

• U.S. expected that Taiwan would fall.

• Jan 5, 1950, Truman said that the United States would not become involved in any dispute about the Taiwan Strait, and that he would not intervene in the event of an attack by the PRC.

TAIWAN REPUBLIC OF CHINA (ROC)

• Jun 1950 North Korea invaded South Korea.• US military defends South Korea. In the context of the Cold War,

Truman dispatched the US Navy's 7th Fleet into the Taiwan Strait to prevent hostilities between Taiwan and mainland China.

• Nov 1950 Chinese Intervention in Korean War.• Containment of Communism.

• Treaty of San Francisco of 1951 (the peace treaty with Japan), which excluded the participation of both the ROC and the PRC.

• U.S and UN recognized ROC not PRC as legitimate government of China.

Pescadores

Kinman(Quemoy)

Matsu

Tachen

Yijiangshan

Wuqiu

First Taiwan Strait Crisis 1954-55• Aug 1954, Kinmen and Matsu

Island. • Sep 1954, Eisenhower: NO use of

American troops. • Sep 1954, Manila Pact Southeast

Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO). • Australia, France, New Zealand,

(Pakistan), Philippines, Thailand, UK & US.

• Anti-Communist self-defense.• Internal conflict & dissolved 1977.• Mutual defense aspects still active.

• Dec, 1954, U.S. & ROC Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty

• Not apply to islands off the mainland.

Pescadores

KinmanQuemoy)

Matsu

Tachen

Yijiangshan

Wuqiu

First Taiwan Strait Crisis 1954–55 (Cont)• Jan, 1955, the PRC seized the

Yijiangshan Islands, forcing the ROC to abandon the Tachen Islands.

• Jan, 1955, US Congress’ Formosa Resolution U.S. forces can defend ROC & its possessions in the Taiwan Strait.

• March 1955, U.S. Sec of StateDulles stated publicly that the U.S. was seriously considering a nuclear strike.

• May 1955, PRC ceased shelling. The fundamental issues of the conflict remained unresolved.

TAIWAN REPUBLIC OF CHINA (ROC) • 1960s Taiwan entered a period of rapid economic growth and

industrialization.• “Taiwan Miracle,” “4 Asian Tigers” = Taiwan, Japan, South Korea &

Singapore.• 1960s Vietnam War - China backed North Vietnam• 1964 China tests nuclear bomb• 1966-76 PRC Cultural Revolution• 1971 ROC lost its UN membership & the PRC assumed China's

seat.• PRC claims sovereignty over Taiwan & refuses diplomatic relations with

any country that recognizes ROC. "Chinese Taipei". • Only a few smaller nations recognize ROC, but many maintain unofficial

ties through representative offices.

TAIWAN REPUBLIC OF CHINA (ROC) • 1972 Nixon visit to PRC (Counter balance to USSR and assist

efforts to end Vietnam war.)• 1973 Paris Peace Accords to end Vietnam War.• 1975 Fall of South Vietnam.• 1 Jan 1979 US established diplomatic relations with PRC.

• Carter terminated Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty (with Taiwan).

• Supreme Court declined to rule in case Goldwater v. Carter (Right of President to unilaterally terminate a treaty.)

• US: One China Policy

TAIWAN • 1979 Taiwan Relations Act

• Defined substantial but non-diplomatic relations between the people of the US and the people of Taiwan.

• No “Republic of China,” uses "governing authorities on Taiwan.”

• Unofficial relations thru a nonprofit corporation• American Institute in Taiwan (AIT)• Incorporated under the laws of the District of Columbia• No official government representation and No formal

diplomatic relations.• However, it is de facto diplomatic relations

TAIWAN • Taiwan Relations Act (continued)

• "U.S. will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and services … necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain sufficient self-defense capabilities".

• Nature and quantity of defense services US provides is to be determined by the President and Congress.

•“Strategic Ambiguity” US official position is that both PRC and Taiwan are to refrain from performing actions or espousing statements "that would unilaterally alter Taiwan's status.“• No Forced Annexation or Declared Independence

CHINA - JAPANSENKAKU/DIAPYU ISLANDS DISPUTE

Okinawa

• Controlled by Japan since 1895. Japansurveyed them & foundthem to be terra nullius(Latin: land belonging tono one).

• WWII Japan Apology?• China acquiesced to

Japan until the 1970s.• 1969 potential gas

fields identified• PRC & Taiwan both

claim ownership prior to 1895.

CHINA - JAPANSENKAKU/DIAPYU ISLANDS DISPUTE

• US has no official position on sovereignty but islands are included in Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan. Japanese defense of the islands would require the US to come to Japan's aid.

• Overlapping EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONES (EEZ).

• 2006 PRC began drilling.• 2008 PRC & Japan agreement that

Japan would invest in the drilling & receive $ from obtained oil.

• Did not address Senkaku ownership.

CHINA - JAPANSENKAKU/DIAPYU ISLANDS DISPUTE

• 2013 PRC declared an Air defense identification Zone (ADIZ). Japan then declared its own.

• Not in UNCLOS or any treaty.• 1st ADIZ used by US in Korean War.• Require all aircraft entering to file a

flight plan and submit radio frequency or transponder info.

• US, S Korea, Japan do not comply and fly military patrols.

• PRC & Taiwan have both sent escorted fishing fleets and aircraft into disputed waters.

YELLOWSEA

EAST CHINASEA

SOUTH CHINASEA

INDIA CHINA DISPUTE

• 2,600,000,000• 40 % (2.6 billion) of

world’s population lives in China (1.4 b) and India (1.2 b).• (US 3rd largest has

300 million.)• And the same

percentage has lived there for the last 2000 years.

• Why?

India

INDIA CHINA DISPUTE• Himalayas, Tibetan

Plateau• Largest source of

accessible fresh water in the world. Feeds the River systems of India & China.

• Mineral deposits Copper etc

• China occupies Tibet.

YELLOWSEA

EAST CHINASEA

SOUTH CHINASEA

INDIA CHINA DISPUTE

India

• China & India accounted for 40% of the worlds economy for 2000 years – Until about 1820.

• Why?• Most of human history

Population = Productivity• Until surge of technology

during the Industrial Revolution in Europe and the US in early 1800s.

• India & China fell behind –Colonization by the west.

• Both now gaining rapidly in Technology.

YELLOWSEA

EAST CHINASEA

SOUTH CHINASEA

INDIA CHINA DISPUTE • 1962 Sino-Indian War• PRC seized Aksai Chin but

unable to take ArunachiPradesh

• 1996 agreement to keep “Line of Actual Control” but ongoing military tension.

• India has entered joint oil explorations with Vietnam in S China Sea & was advised by PRC to stay out.

• India seen as competing potential world power astride their oil routes.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)

• 1967 Regional organization of 10 Southeast Asian states • Promotes intergovernmental cooperation and economic

integration amongst its members. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (Burma), and Vietnam.

• Principal aims: economic growth, social progress, and sociocultural evolution among its members, alongside the protection of regional stability and a mechanism for member countries to resolve differences peacefully.

• Seeks an Asian Common Market.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)

• Annual East Asia Summit (EAS) since 2005: • "ASEAN Plus Three“ - To improve existing ties with the People's

Republic of China, Japan, and South Korea (Not members). • Includes U.S. and Russia.• “ASEAN Plus Six” - additional attending countries: Australia, New

Zealand and India (Not members).• Potential multi-state venue for South China Sea Resolution vs Bi-lateral

negotiations. Thus far unsuccessful.• Cambodia & Laos have blocked Vietnam’s attempts to use ASEAN to

negotiate with China.• 2010 Malaysia believed it could profit from China's economic growth

through co-operation with China & said that China "was not a threat to anyone.” Malaysia maintained balanced relations with all countries involved. But since China has start encroaching its territorial waters, Malaysia has become active in condemning China.

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS)

• International agreement from the third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III), which took place between 1973 and 1982.

• Defined the rights and responsibilities of nations regarding their use of the world's oceans, establishing guidelines for businesses, the environment, and the management of marine natural resources.

• Landlocked states given a right of access to and from the sea, without taxation of traffic through transit states.

• Concluded in 1982 & came into force in 1994, after 60 nations ratified. As of June 2016, 167 countries and the European Union have joined in the Convention.

• (All South China Seas nations have signed. U.S. is not a signatory.)

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS)

• Established International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS)

• Independent judicial body to adjudicate disputes arising out of the interpretation and application of the Convention.

• While the UN provides support for meetings of states party to the Convention, the UN has no direct operational role in the implementation of the Convention.

• No enforcement mechanism.

TERRITORIAL WATERS• Coastal state is free to set laws, regulate use,

and use any resource.• Vessels have right of innocent passage through

any territorial waters, with strategic straits allowing the passage of military craft as transit passage, in that naval vessels are allowed to maintain postures that would be illegal in territorial waters.

• "Innocent passage:" Passing through waters in an “expeditious and continuous manner, which is not "prejudicial to the peace, good order or the security" of the coastal state.”

• Fishing, polluting, weapons practice, and spying are not "innocent", and submarines are required to navigate on the surface and show their flag.

• Nations can also temporarily suspend innocent passage in specific areas of their territorial seas, if doing so is essential for the protection of its security.

CONTIGUOUS ZONE

• A further 12 nautical mile contiguous zone beyond the territorial waters .

• Hot Pursuit area in which a state can continue to enforce laws in four specific areas: customs, taxation, immigration and pollution:

• If the infringement started within the state's territory or territorial waters, or

• if this infringement is about to occur within the state's territory or territorial waters

EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE (EEZ)

• From the edge of the territorial sea out to 200 nautical miles (370 kilometres; 230 miles) from the baseline.

• Coastal nation has sole exploitation rights over all natural resources.

• Foreign nations have the freedom of navigation and overflight, subject to the regulation of the coastal states. Foreign states may also lay submarine pipes and cables

• Introduced to halt the increasingly heated clashes over fishing rights, although oil was also becoming important. The success of an offshore oil platform in the Gulf of Mexicoin 1947 was soon repeated elsewhere in the world, and by 1970 it was technically feasible to operate in waters 4,000 metresdeep.

CONTINENTAL SHELF• Natural prolongation of the land territory to the

continental margin's outer edge, or 200 nautical miles from the coastal state's baseline, whichever is greater. A state's continental shelf may exceed 200 nautical miles until the natural prolongation ends. However, it may never exceed 350 nautical miles from the baseline.

(Not exceed 350 nautical miles)

CONTINENTAL SHELF (cont)

• Coastal states have the right to harvest mineral and non-living material in the subsoil of its continental shelf, to the exclusion of others.

• Coastal states have exclusive control over living resources "attached" to the continental shelf, but not to creatures living in the water column beyond the exclusive economic zone.

(Not exceed 350 nautical miles)

UNCLOS TITLE XI (DEEP SEA MINING)• Established a regime relating to seabed minerals outside any state's

territorial waters or EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zones). • Established an International Seabed Authority (ISA) to authorize

seabed exploration and mining and collect and distribute the seabed mining royalty.

• United States objected to Part XI • Unfavorable to American economic and security interests.• U.S. refused to ratify UNCLOS, but accepted all but Part XI as customary

international law.

• U.S. has been attempting to establish an alternative regime for exploitation of the minerals of the deep seabed. An ongoing process.

ARCHIPELAGIC STATE• UNCLOS: Internationally recognized state that comprises a

series of islands that form an archipelago:A single unit, so that the waters around, between and connecting the islands form part of the internal waters of the state and are subject to its exclusive sovereignty.

• Only Five: Fiji, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Bahamas, & Philippines. • Archipelagic states shall respect existing agreements with other countries

and shall recognize traditional fishing rights and other legitimate activities of the immediately adjacent neighboring countries…

• The terms…for the exercise of such rights and activities…shall, at the request of any of the countries concerned, be regulated by bilateral agreements between them. Such rights shall not be transferred to third countries or their nationals.

WHAT IS AN ISLAND?• Shoal: A natural submerged ridge, bank, or bar that consists of, or is covered by, sand

or other unconsolidated material, and rises from the bed of a body of water to near the surface. Often it refers to those submerged ridges, banks, or bars that rise near enough to the surface of a body of water as to constitute a danger to navigation.

• Reef : A bar of rock, sand, coral or similar material, lying beneath the surface of water. • abiotic processes - deposition of sand, wave erosion of rock outcrops, & natural

processes. • biotic processes - living corals and calcareous algae.

• Low-tide elevation: A landmass above water only at low tide. Outside an existing territorial sea it is not entitled to a separate maritime zone.

• Rock: A landmass permanently above water but unable to sustain human habitation or economic life on its own. It is entitled to a territorial sea and contiguous zone, but not an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) or continental shelf rights.

• Island: “a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water, which is above water at high tide.” A landmass permanently above water that can sustain human habitation or economic life on its own. It is entitled to a territorial sea, contiguous zone, EEZ, and continental shelf rights.

Customary International Law and The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

(UNCLOS)Three key legal questions must be answered to sort the disputes:1. Sovereignty over the islands/features.2. The nature of a claimed land feature.3. The delimitation of maritime jurisdiction.

Customary International Law and The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

(UNCLOS)

1. Sovereignty over the islands/features.• UNCLOS does not determine sovereignty of a given land mass and “is

premised on the assumption that a particular state has undisputed title over territory from which the maritime zone is claimed.”

• Once sovereignty of a land feature is determined it stipulates jurisdiction over surrounding waters based on its characteristics.

• States use both Customary International Law and UNCLOS to stake their claims.

Customary International Law • Evolved over centuries mainly from European traditions based on

generally accepted notions, or past precedence through agreements, arbitration, or rulings by international courts.

• Concepts in customary law evolve as state practices change, and tend to address only specific issues presented within certain contexts.

• Among Asian societies, Western customary legal concepts like sovereignty, the high seas, or coastal jurisdiction have no traditional equivalent which makes adjudicating ancient claims incongruent with modern procedures.

• Vietnam and China (PRC), as socialist governments, also assert that “bourgeois international law serves the interests of the bourgeoisie only,” although each employs these methods to advance their interests.

• Not codified; Its Complex and open to numerous interpretations.

Customary International Law and The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

(UNCLOS)• Two Customary International Law Methods to stake sovereignty claims:

1. Long association in a “historic” claim.• An area has been part of a state, through long continuous administrative control,

economic use, or social links. • The legal principle of stare decisis (“maintain what has been decided,” or settled

law). An accepted precept by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 1951.• Historic claims are broad and not well defined traditionally. These concepts are

ambiguous, with wide-ranging and sometimes conflicting interpretations.• Means they may not be useful mechanisms for establishing control.

• Need detailed historic documentation, which then needs to be verified and weighed against other conflicting claims. Favor cultures with long traditions in writing and recordkeeping.

• PRC, Taiwan, and Vietnam assert historic claims.

Customary International Law and The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

(UNCLOS)• Second Customary International Law method to claim

sovereignty.2. Discovery and occupation

• terra nullius (Latin: land belonging to no one);• Requires that claims be backed by effective, continuous, and

unchallenged occupation or administration in order to be valid.• “Possession is 9/10s of the law.” • Effective occupation, cession, prescription, conquest, and accretion• Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, PRC, and Taiwan

• UNCLOS claim. • A defined feature “Rock or Island” lies within state’s jurisdictional area

(Territorial Waters out to EEZ/Continental Shelf). • Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia & all others.

INDIVIDUAL NATION TERRITORIAL CLAIMS

BRUNEI

Claims based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS). Brunei states that the southern part of the Spratly Islands chain is actually a part of its continental shelf

INDONESIA

Claims based on UNCLOS and its status of archipelagic state.

MALAYSIA

Claims based on UNCLOS EEZ & continental shelf principle.Re: Its portion of Spratly Islands; they were res nullius when Japan renounced their sovereignty over the islands according to the San Francisco Treaty, without any special beneficiary.

PHILIPPINES

Claims on Spratlys and Scarborough Shoals based on Res nullius , geography & UNCLOS. Spratlys are distinct from other island groups because of their size. They lie within its 200 mile EEZ and were res nullius. PRC cannot extend its baseline claims to the Spratlys because PRC is not an archipelagic state.

VIETNAM

When it ratified UNCLOS it “reiterates Viet Nam's sovereignty over the Paracels and Spratys & its position to settle those disputes through peaceful negotiations IAW UNCLOS.Chinese records do not constitute the declaration and exercise of sovereignty & China did not declare sovereignty over the Spratlys until after WW II.

TAIWAN

Taiwan like PRC claims most of South China Sea as part of China based on history and not UNCLOS.Because it is confined to Taiwan and selected islands it claims UNCLOS in its immediate occupation.

CHINA

PRC claims most of South China Sea as part of China based on history and not UNCLOS.

“In a move expected to escalate global tensions, China’s Ministry of Education has released a new world map in which China claims large swaths of the Pacific Ocean, including Hawaii and most of Micronesia.”

The Education Ministry also issued a directive ordering “all educational facilities and government offices to replace their outdated world maps with the current iteration.”

“Ministry of Education officials defended the new “251-dash map” by pointing to several Qing-era documents which show the Caroline, Northern Mariana and Marshall Islands under Chinese control.”

March 3,2017

EVERYBODY SOUTH CHINA SEA

CONTINENTAL SHELF• Natural prolongation of the land territory to the

continental margin's outer edge, or 200 nautical miles from the coastal state's baseline, whichever is greater. A state's continental shelf may exceed 200 nautical miles until the natural prolongation ends. However, it may never exceed 350 nautical miles from the baseline.

(Not exceed 350 nautical miles)

CONFLICT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEADAY TWO• TERRITORIAL CLAIMS (Continued)

• China “9 DASH LINE”• Specific Island Groups & Claims:

• Pratas, Paracels, Scarborough Shoal, Spratlys, & Natunas• “Great Wall of Sand” - Island Building

• 2016 ITLOS Ruling

• CURRENT TENSIONS• Local Issue vs Emerging China?• Update on U.S. China Relations - Tiananmen Square 1990’s Onward• Chinese Economic and Military Strategy

• LOOKING FORWARD

China’s“11 dash line”

“9 dash line”

“Cow’s tongue”

“10 dash line”

CHINA’S 9 DASH LINE• 1947 “eleven-dotted-line,” "Map of South China Sea Islands.“

• Kuomintang ROC government, for its claims in SCS. • Based on 1935 “Map of Chinese Islands in the South China

Sea” by ROC’s Water Maps Inspection Committee. • 1949, After Communists took over mainland China with PRC, the

line was adopted and revised to nine as endorsed by Zhou Enlai. • Removed 2 lines in Gulf of Tonkin between China & Vietnam.

• 2013 PRC extended claims with a new 10-dash map. The "new" dash is east of Taiwan and not in the South China Sea.

• The Nine-Dash Line has been used by China to show the maximum extent of its claim without indicating how the dashes would be joined if it was continuous and how that would affect the extent of the area claimed by China.

• China states that it has historical support for their claims.

CHINA’S 9 DASH LINE

• China claims its fisherman and traders have exercised territorial rights throughout the South China Sea over centuries. Early as Han Dynasty Before Common Era (BCE).

• Chinese porcelain recovered in shipwrecks in Sprakly Islands “proves” China’s usage. • China (Both Nationalist and Communist) uses history to promote national unity and

regime legitimacy.• Chinese Communist leadership consciously conducts itself as the heir to China’s

imperial legacy.• State-controlled information system has refined history as an instrument of

statecraft.• Television historical dramas. Widespread public support for its territorial claims. • Textbooks show the Middle Kingdom as being the oldest and most advanced

civilization that was at the very center of the universe, surrounded by lesser, partially Sinicized states that must pay their respects.

• Voyages of Chinese Admiral Zheng He.

Chinese Admiral Zheng He• Yongul Emperor sent

Admiral Zheng He on 7 expeditions to the "Western" or Indian Ocean1405 to 1433 (317 ships & 28,000 men).

CHINA’S 9 DASH LINE

• Successor Hongwu (vs Yongul) Emperor stopped the voyages. • Haijin edict or sea ban - isolationist policies restricted maritime trading

and coastal settlement during most of the Ming & Qing dynasties. • In 15th century, China relocated its capital (Nanjing) north to Beijing.

• $ needed for building capital. No $ allowed for ships.• Increasing threats from northern Mongols. $ for Great Wall.• China focused inward. For 2000 years it had been worlds most

advanced civilization, it believed outside world had nothing of value to offer.

• Same time: Europe began Age of Discovery and Exploration. • 1800s European Industrial Revolution & Colonization.

• “100 years of Humiliation.” Approx 1839-1949.

CHINA’S 9 DASH LINE

• Justification: China claims are no different than imperialist expansion by the US and Europe powers in the 18th & 19th centuries. China is merely following the example set by the West.

• When ratified UNCLOS China issued Declaration: • “…China shall enjoy sovereign rights and jurisdiction over an

exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles and the continental shelf.”

• “Does not accept any of the (settlement) procedures provided.”• Reserved boundary disputes to be settled by direct

negotiation.

REBUTAL TO CHINA’S 9 DASH LINE• Almost all the disputing nations claim they have been

fishing and trading in South China Seas for centuries.• Ships of many trading nations could carry porcelain

not just Chinese.• A map does not “prove” sovereignty.• Chinese shipwrecks “prove they were not familiar” with area’s features.• China’s SCS claims are a major shift from its longstanding land

orientation to a regional sea power. • China claims a strong maritime tradition because of 15th century

expeditions of Zheng He, but Chinese were actually latecomers to navigation beyond coastal waters. Malay-Polynesians were actually the most maritime & settled most of the area from Taiwan, Philippines and Hawaii in the east, to Madagascar in the west.

• The claim that China has a long record of written history does not invalidate other nations’ histories as illustrated by artifacts, language, lineage, genetic affinities, and the evidence of trade and travel.

REBUTAL TO CHINA’S 9 DASH LINE• In Asia’s past empires did not exercise sovereignty. They were characterized by

undefined, unprotected, and often changing frontiers. • The notion of suzerainty prevailed. Frontiers of Chinese empires were more like

circles or zones, tapering off from the center of civilization to the undefined periphery of alien barbarians.

• Modern attempts to convert undefined frontiers of ancient kingdoms enjoying suzerainty into clearly defined boundaries of modern nation-states exercising sovereignty lie at the center of China’s territorial and maritime disputes.

• A basic contradiction in the Chinese stand on land and sea boundaries:• In land disputes with neighboring India, Burma, and Vietnam, Beijing always

took the position that its boundaries were never defined, demarcated, and delimited.

• But now, when it comes to islands, shoals, and reefs in the South China Sea, Beijing claims otherwise.

REBUTAL CHINA’S 9 DASH LINE• China’s present borders largely reflect the frontiers established during 18th

century Qing (Manchu) expansionism.• Official Chinese history today often claims that Mongols, Tibetans,

Manchus, and Hans were all Chinese, when in fact the Great Wall was built by the Chinese dynasties to keep out the northern Mongol and Manchu tribes that repeatedly overran Han China.

• While most historians see the Mongol hordes led by Genghis Khan in the 1200s as an apocalyptic event that threatened civilizations in India, Persia, and other nations (including China), the Chinese have consciously promoted the myth that he was actually “Chinese.”

• Therefore all areas that the Mongols had once conquered (such as Tibet and much of Central and Inner Asia) belong to China.

• China’s claims on Taiwan and in the South China Sea are also based that both were parts of the Manchu empire.

• (Actually, in Manchu or Qing dynasty maps, it is Hainan Island, not the Paracel and Spratly Islands, that is depicted as China’s southern-most border.)

WHAT DOES THE 9 DASH LINE MEAN?• China’s “Strategic Ambiguity”

• China has never delineated coordinates of the line.• China’s Government has never specified the nature of its claim.• Other nations cannot negotiate because they cannot pin down China’s position.

• Chinese scholars have 4 schools of thought:1. Sovereignty: Everything enclosed by line belongs to China – Similar to

Territorial or Archipelagic waters.2. Historical Rights: China has an administrative mandate based on its long

standing historical presence. Right to oversight for protecting ecosystems, controlling natural resources and promoting economic development within the line.

3. Jurisdictional Rights: China has sovereignty over all the enclosed “features” & claims territorial, EEZ and continental shelf jurisdiction from all its coastlines.

4. Security Interests: Foreign military activity can be prohibited in EEZs.• Each perspective builds upon and strengthens the others.

UNITED STATES POSITION

• Non signatory of UNCLOS• Freedom of Navigation is most immediate concern.

• FONOPs USS Lassen Spratleys Oct 2015USS Decatur Paracels Oct 2015USS Wilbur Curtis Paracels Jan 2016USS Wiliam P Lawrence Spratleys Oct 2016USS Carl Vinson Battle Group Current 2017

• Incidents US P3 Orion & PRC KJ200 Scarborough Shoal Feb 2016USNS Bowditch (Ocean Survey) Scarborough Shoal Dec 2016

• Open economic access to the South China Sea maritime commons.• Allies & Treaty Partners. (Japan, S Korea, Philippines, Thailand)

PRATAS (Dongsha) ISLANDS• Occupied/Claimed by Taiwan; Claimed by China (PRC)• First recorded mention about 1000 yrs ago -Chinese Jin

Dynasty • Uninhabited Chinese Fisherman• Name from Portuguese in 1500s• Occupied by Japanese WWII then returned to ROC• 1987, small airfield and Fisherman’s Service Station. • 2007, Taiwan designated as the Dongsha Atoll National

Park

PARACEL ISLANDS• Claimed by China and Vietnam. • Equidistant from the coastlines of China (PRC) and

Vietnam• Uninhabited. Only 2 islands were (barely) habitable.• Both have historical claims going back centuries – Both

extensive Fishing - Neither occupied• 1885 Sino-French War

- Quing China objected to islands incorporationinto French Indochina.

- France recognized China's sovereignty over theParacels and Spratlys, in exchange for Chineserecognition of Vietnam as French.

PARACEL ISLANDS• 1932 Japan invaded N China • 1933 France annexed Paracels & Spratlys (China & Japan

protested)• 1938 Japan seized & 1941 made Paracels and Spratlys

part of Taiwan (which Japan ruled)• 1945 ROC accepted Japanese surrender on Taiwan,

Paracels and Spratlys (per Cairo & Potsdam)• 1946 ROC military occupied Woody Island (Amphrite

Group) and Taiping Island in Spratlys (France Protested)• 1947 French/Viet occupied Pattle Island (Crescent Group)• 1950 ROC abandoned when lost Hainan Island• 1955 PRC occupied Woody • 1955 French on Pattle Island (Crescent Group) became• 1960s Vietnam war S Viet only minor garrison. PRC did

not attempt to remove.

PARACEL ISLANDS• 1974 Battle of Paracel Islands • PRC victory

S Viet lost 1 ship sunk, 3 damaged, 53 killed, 48 captured PRC lost 4 ships damaged, 18 killed

• 1975 North takes over all Viet.North still maintains its claims but

• All of the islands are under Chinese control.• 1979-1989 China-Vietnam border war when Viet

invaded Cambodia. (China backed Khmer Rouge & saw Viet as allied with Soviets.) Casualties China 62k, Viet 57k.

• Woody Island - Militarized airfield w jet fighters.

• 20 outposts in the Paracels. • 3 have protected harbors with large numbers of naval vessels.• 4 others = smaller harbors witha fifth under construction.• 5 contain helipads.• Duncan Isle has helicopter base. • Woody Island: airstrip, hangars, & HQ-9 surface-to-air missilebatteries.

• 2013, Exxon and Vietnam’s Petro Vietnam announced plans to build a $20 billion power plant to be fueled by the oil and gas from two blocks in their EEZ west of Paracels.

• 2014, China placed drilling rig near the two hydrocarbon blocks already created by Hanoi. Boat rammings & protests.

• China withdrew Rig after several months.

PARACEL ISLANDS

Scarborough Shoal• Claimed by China and Philippines. Underwater, Never occupied.• 123 miles west of Subic Bay Philippines, 1000 miles east of China.• Inside Philippine EEZ.

• Within China’s nine-dotted line . Chinese astronomer Guo Shoujing went to the island in 1279, under the Yuan dynasty, as part of an empire-wide survey called "Measurement of the Four Seas."

• In 1979 historical geographer Han Zhenhua was among the first scholars to claim that the point called "Nanhai" (literally, "South Sea") in that astronomical survey referred to Scarborough Shoal.

Scarborough Shoal

• 1980 during a conflict with Vietnam for sovereignty over the ParacelIslands (Xisha Islands), however, the Chinese government issued an official document claiming that "Nanhai" in the 1279 survey was located in the Paracels.

• Several official Philippine maps published by Spain and United States in 18th and 20th centuries show Scarborough Shoal as Philippine territory.

Scarborough Shoal• 1951-1991, U.S. & Philippine military routinely fired live and inert

ordnance during training.• 1965 Philippines installed metal tower lighthouse and Philippine flag.

1992 Referbished and reported to International Maritime Organization.• 1992 US closes Subic Bay and Clark AFB

• Renegotiations on Military Bases Agreement of 1947 = Treaty of Friendship, Peace and Cooperation.

• Philippines senate rejected treaty.• 1997 Filipino naval ships prevent Chinese fishing boats from approaching

the shoal.• 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement US Military can temporarily use bases.

Scarborough Shoal• 2012, Philippine Coast Guard attempt to arrest Chinese Fisherman but

were blocked by 2 Chinese maritime surveillance ships.• 2012, Chinese Navy began restricting Philippine fishing boats. • 2012, Hackers suspected to be from China, defaced the website of the

University of the Philippines. Hackers: “We come from China! HuangyanIsland is Ours!”.

• 2012, Philippines claimed that under a deal mediated by the United States, China and the Philippines promised to withdraw their forces from the shoal until an agreement over ownership could be reached.

• The Philippines "complied with the agreement" and withdrew.• China did not abide by the agreement and returned to the shoal, effectively

militarizing it. • China erected a barrier to the entrance of the shoal• China claimed that no such deal had been reached, and that it was open to talking

to Philippines provided that non-regional entities such as USA stayed out of such talks.

Scarborough Shoal

• 2014 -2015, Chinese Coast Guard vessels used water cannons on Philippine fishing boats, and seized the catch of some of the boats.

• Sep 2016, Philippines claimed that a number of Chinese ships capable of land reclamation had collected at Scarborough shoal. This claim was denied by the Chinese.

• Aug 2016, Chinese allow Filipino fishermen after talks between the Philippine President Duterte and his Chinese counterparts.

SPRATLY ISLANDS• Portions Claimed by China (PRC & Taiwan), Brunei, Indonesia,

Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam• > 400 land features, 14 islands or islets, 6 banks, 113 submerged

reefs, 35 underwater banks, 21 underwater shoals. Mariners call it Dangerous Ground.

• No indigenous population.• Features Currently Occupied:

• Vietnam 29 Brunei 2

• China 8 Taiwan 1

• Philippines 8 Indonesia 0

• Malaysia 5

SPRATLY ISLANDS

• Occupation

SPRATLY ISLANDS• Both China and Vietnam claim the entire group based on maps & surveys

both have made over centuries. • Other nations claim portions.• 1877 the British made first modern legal claims to the Spratlys.• 1883 Germany surveyed Spratlys and Paracels & China protested. • 1887 Chinese-Vietnamese Boundary convention signed by France & China

after Sino-French War said that China had Spratly and Paracel islands.• 1902 & 1907 Qing China sent naval inspection tours and placed flags and

markers on the islands. The Qing dynasty's successor state, the Republic of China, claimed the Spratly and Paracel islands.

• 1933, France asserted its claims to the Spratly and Paracel Islands on behalf of its then-colony Vietnam. It occupied a number of the Spratly Islands, including Taiping Island. ROC protested.

SPRATLY ISLANDS• 1939-1945 WWII Japan occupied the Paracels and the Spratlys.• 1945 Allies assigned the ROC to receive Japanese surrenders in that area,

however no successor was named to the islands.• 1946 ROC occupied the largest & perhaps only inhabitable island, Taiping

Island, as its base & re-claimed the entirety of the Spratlys. • 1947 ROC then drew up the map showing the U-shaped claim on the entire

South China Sea, showing the Spratly and Paracels in Chinese territory.• 1950 ROC quietly withdrew from Taiping Island, but then reinstated in 1956

in response to Filipino Tomás Cloma's sudden claim to the island as part of Freedomland. Taiping Island is still held by Taiwan.

• 1958, the PRC issued a declaration defining its territorial waters to encompass the Spratly Islands.

SPRATLY ISLANDS• 1960s Vietnam War. North Vietnam’s prime minister, Phạm Văn Đồng,

sent a formal note to Zhou Enlai.• Democratic Republic of Vietnam (DRV) respected Chinese

decisions regarding the 12nm territorial waters limit & recognized China's claims on the Paracels and Spratlys as it was being supported by China during the Vietnam War.

• 1971 Philippines claimed the Spratlys under President Marcos, after Taiwanese troops attacked and shot at a Philippine fishing boat on ItuAba (Taipang Island). (Philippines - Kalayan Island Group -50 features).

• 1975 North Viet conquered South Vietnam & retracted its recognition of Chinese sovereignty of Paracels & Spratlys - admitted it only recognized them as part of China to receive aid.

SPRATLY ISLANDSChina-Vietnam: Johnson South Reef Skirmish

• 1987 UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), agreed that China would establish five observation posts, including one at the Spratly Islands, for a worldwide ocean survey using GLOSS (Global Sea Level Observing System). (IOC scientists did not know that Taiwan had an island in the Spratly or that China (PRC) occupied none.)

• 1988 China chose Fiery Cross Reef for the post and sent 4 PLAN ships.• Viet already occupied nearby islands. 2 Viet Navy ships went to 2 neighboring

unoccupied reefs. Both PLAN and Viet forces landed parties on Johnson South Reef. Viet tried to erect a flag and surrounded the flag with 64 soldiers (most unarmed). Physical altercation and gunfire ensued. PLAN sailors returned to ship. PLAN frigate then opened fire on reef: sunk Viet ship and killed all 64 Viet on Reef. Chinese occupied the reef and began building a structure.

• Viet tried same at Lansdowne Reef and its ship there was sunk as well.• Within a year, the PLA occupied and took over seven reefs and rocks in the

Spratly Islands.

SPRATLY ISLANDSMischief Reef

• 1994, China had a similar confrontation by asserting its ownership of Mischief Reef, which was inside the claimed EEZ of the Philippines. However, the Philippines only made a political protest, since the Philippine Navy decided to avoid direct confrontation - based on the Johnson South Reef Skirmish, in which the Chinese killed Vietnamese troops even though it took place near the Vietnamese-controlled area.

• 1995, ASEAN-brokered agreement was reached between the PRC and ASEAN members nations whereby one country would inform the others of any military movement within the disputed territory, and that there would be no further construction.

• The agreement was promptly violated by PRC and Malaysia: claiming storm damage, seven PLA Navy vessels entered Mischief Reef to repair "fishing shelters" and Malaysia erected a structure on Investigator Shoal.

• 1999 China urged Taiwan to co-operate with them as claims reinforce each other. China offered Taiwan a share in oil and gas resources while shutting out all the other rival claimants.

SPRATLEY SECOND THOMAS SHOAL

• 1999 The Philippine military deliberately grounded a World War II-vintage, 328-foot tank landing ship atop the Second Thomas Shoal in a last-ditch effort to check the advance of China, which four years earlier occupied Philippine-claimed Mischief Reef some 40 kilometers (25 miles) away.

• The disputed outcrops are located around 200 kilometers from the western Philippine island of Palawan and roughly 1,100 kilometers from the nearest major Chinese land mass.

• Philippines regularly rotates a group of around nine marines aboard the tank landing ship.

SPRATLY ISLANDS• 2011

• Chinese patrol boats attacked 2 Vietnamese oil exploration ships.• Chinese naval vessels with a small group of Chinese fishing boats

fired on Vietnamese fishing vessels operating off East London Reef (Da Dong).

• Another Vietnamese fishing vessel was fired on near Fiery Cross Reef .

• These incidents involving Chinese forces sparked mass protests in Vietnam.

• Philippines began officially referring to the South China Sea as the "West Philippine Sea.“

• 2012, Vietnam passed a law demarcating Vietnamese sea borders to include the Spratly and Paracel Islands.

SPRATLY ISLANDS• 2012, China announced that it was open to discussions on a Code of

Conduct in the South China Sea, but called for all parties to exercise self-restraint in keeping with the spirit of previous declarations.

• Announcement criticized by neighboring states because of the contradictions seen in the Scarborough Shoal at that time where China has established de facto control.

• 2013, Philippines instituted arbitral proceedings against the People's Republic of China in the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA).

• 2013–2014 China began a substantial program of dredging and land reclamation at sites in the Spratlys.

CHINA’S LAND RECLAMATION PROJECTSGreat Wall of Sand

Hughes Reef

July 22, 2016

Jan 24, 2012

CHINA MISCHIEF REEF 1371 ACRES RECLAIMED

CHINASUBI REEF 976 ACRES RECLAIMED

July 24, 2016August 8. 2012

China FIERY CROSS REEF - 677 ACRES RECLAIMED

CHINA - JOHNSON REEF 27 ACRESPoint Defense Weapon Systems

January 18, 2012 March 4, 2015

Anti-aircraft guns & close-in weapons systems (CIWS) on Hughes Reef

Not Just China

Vietnam Spratley Island 37 acres Taiwan Itu Aba 8 acres

ECOLOGICAL IMPACT• Fragile reef ecosystems - destruction of habitat, pollution &

interruption of migration routes.• New islands are built on reefs previously 1m below the sea

level. To back-fill these 7 artificial islands, a total area of 13.5 km2 to a height of a few meters, China had to destroy surrounding reefs and pump 50 million m3 of sand and corals, resulting in significant and irreversible damage to the environment.

• Sediment “can wash back into the sea, forming plumes that smother marine life and could be laced with heavy metals, oil and other chemicals from the ships and shore facilities being built.” Plumes threaten the biologically diverse reefs throughout the Spratlys, which may have trouble surviving in sediment-laden water.

2015, “A Chinese Coast Guard ship had been detected…anchored in Malaysian waters … just 84 nautical miles from the coast of Sarawak, well inside Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone and on the southern end of China’s nine-dash line.”

“Malaysia…has downplayed such matters in the past and preferred to handle them privately. The country’s response this time was much firmer and more public… announced that Malaysia had sent its navy and coast guard to monitor the area “to ensure the sovereignty of the country.”

NATUNA (& Anambas) Islands• Belong to Indonesia. • Natuna is outside China’s 9 dash line but EEZ overlaps 9-line.

• Natuna 67k Population (85% Malay). • Anambas 37k Population.• 1995 Indonesia-Australia Bilateral Security

Treaty.• Joint naval exercises around Natunas.• 2002 Treaty Nullified over East Timor

Succession.

Anambas

NATUNAS (& Anambas) Islands• Indonesia is the world's biggest exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas LNG.• Although China does not claim the Natuna Islands themselves, PRC

maps include the waters just north of the Natunas. Indonesia insists the area is part of its EEZ. These waters cover part of the world’s largest offshore gas fields. With an estimated 1.27 trillion cubic meters of recoverable gas, they represent 40% of Indonesia’s gas reserves.

• ConocoPhillips is a participant in the West Natuna Gas Supply Group (WNG). WNG jointly markets natural gas from fields in three South Natuna Sea PSCs, to SembGas in Singapore.

• Dec 2010 Indonesian state oil and gas firm PT Pertamina signed an agreement with Exxon Mobil, Total & Petronas as partners in the development of the huge Natuna D-Alpha gas field.

NATUNA (& Anambas) Islands• 2015, Indonesia seized a 4306 ton Chinese Fishing boat 7 crew in EEZ but

released with just small fine.• 2016, Indonesia seized a 300 ton Chinese fishing boat in its EEZ and arrested

the crew. When it was towing ship back into its territorial waters 2 Chinese Coast Guard ships arrived, rammed the fishing boat and seized it back.

• Indonesia stepped up military fortifications & troops on the Natuna Islands. It placed fighters, surveillance and anti-sub planes to demonstrate resolve to protect its territory and the EEZ areas around the Natunas.

• Mar 2016, Indonesia seized and then sank another Chinese fishing boat.• Nov 11, 2016, The Indonesia said that if dialogue with China on the Natuna

islands did not yield any result soon, Indonesia might follow the footsteps of the Philippines and bring China to the international arbitration court for a clarification.

• The next day, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Mr. Hong made history by finally, and openly, announcing China’s willingness to accept Indonesia’s sovereign claim to the Natuna Islands. (Recognizes EEZ validity?)

2016 RULING International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS)

• Jan 2013, Philippines initiated arbitration proceedings against China's claim on territories within the "nine-dash line" that includes Spratly Islands, which it said is unlawful under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS) convention.

• July 12, 2016, the arbitral tribunal backed the Philippines.• No evidence that China had historically exercised exclusive

control over the waters or resources, hence there was "no legal basis for China to claim historic rights" over the nine-dash line.

• “Historical Rights do not supersede another nation’s EEZ”.

2016 RULING International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS)

• Criticized China's land reclamation projects and its construction of artificial islands in the Spratly Islands, saying that it had caused "severe harm to the coral reef environment".

• Characterized Taiping Island and other features of the Spratly Islands as "rocks" under UNCLOS, and therefore are not entitled to a 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone.

• China however rejected the ruling, calling it "ill-founded".Taiwan, which currently administers Taiping Island, the largest of the Spratly Islands, also rejected the ruling.

EMERGING CHINA• China’s Economy 2nd Largest by nominal GDP

(72nd per-capita GDP).• Largest Population.• Largest by Purchasing Power.• Largest Trading Nation.• China is a major creditor & the second largest foreign holder of US

public debt. 40% of China’s 1.2 Trillion Reserve is invested in US.• China Account surplus 10% of GDP.• US Account deficit 6% of GDP.

• Fastest Growing Economy – 10% growth average over 30 years. • 1978-2004 grew 10 fold. • But slowing down to 6%.

• Hong Kong & Macau “One Country, Two Systems” • Maintain “Capitalist” system for 50 years (Hong Kong 2047, Macau 2049).

EMERGING CHINA• Unfair Trade Practices

• Artificial Currency Devaluation• Intellectual Property theft• Protectionism• Favoritism, One Party Oligopoly, Corruption• Pollution• Hacking

HONG KONG (Reuters) — If the People's Liberation Army went to war tomorrow, it would field an arsenal bristling with hardware from some of America's closest allies: Germany, France and Britain.

Dual Use TechnologyNuclear, Chemical, Bio-Med, Electrical, Mechanical

Reverse Engineering

US – China Trade• > 100 US-based multinationals have

projects in mainland China, some with multiple investments.

• > 20,000 equity joint ventures.• US investment in mainland China: $48

billion.• US trade deficit with China exceeded $350

billion in 2006 and was the United States' largest bilateral trade deficit.

• “Attributing commercial value to the last country of origin perverts the true economic of bilateral trade imbalances. This affects the political debate, and leads to misguided perceptions. Estimates based on true domestic content can cut the overall China – US deficit by half, if not more."

U.S.- CHINA RELATIONS• 1989 Tiananmen Square - US economic sanctions.

• Restricted International Monetary Fund development bank lending & no IMF credits to the PRC except for projects that address basic human needs.

• 1996 PRC military exercises across Taiwan Straights during Taiwan Elections.• US deployed 2 aircraft carrier groups.

• 1997-1998 Exchange of presidential visits Jian Zemin & Clinton. • 1999 NATO bombed PRC embassy in Belgrade during Kosovo Intervention.• 2001 Hainan Island incident - PRC Fighter collided with US EP3 surveillance plane. • 9/11 PRC supported UN Resolution condemning terror attack. Supported

Coalition against Taliban. Contributed $150 million in reconstruction aid to Afghanistan. Joint Counterterrorism discussions.

• 2005, the PRC passed Anti-Secession Law. PRC prepared for "non-peaceful means" if Taiwan declared formal independence.

U.S.- CHINA RELATIONS

• 2009, U.S.–China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, • response to the economic crisis, find ways to cooperate re global

warming, and issues such as proliferation of nuclear weapons and humanitarian crises.

• Pres Obama visited China.• 2010, Pres Obama met with the Dalai Lama, accused by China of

"formenting unrest in Tibet." • 2010, US arms sale to Taiwan.

• PRC threatened sanctions on any involved US Company.• 2010 “US tilt/rebalance toward Asia”. PRC protests as “containment.”

UNITED STATES POSITION

• Historically, the United States has not accepted China’s territorial claims nor its approach to solve the problem. However, for a long time the United States refrained from directly challenging China concerning these issues.

• July 2010, U.S. policy was changed when Sec of State Clinton presented a three-point program at the ASEAN Regional Forum. The US:

1) has a national interest in the South China Sea; 2) supports a collaborative process by all of the claimants (vs China’s

bilateral approach) for resolving territorial disputes without coercion; and, 3) urges the claimants to pursue their territorial claims in accordance

with international law (as opposed to China’s bilateral diplomatic negotiation).

CHINA’S POSITION• The three points challenged China’s territorial claim.

• China called U.S. comments blatantly intrusive, culturally ignorant, and counterproductive.

• Asked the United States to stay away from the South China Sea dispute and let China handle the negotiations with other disputants without outside interference.

• China contends that it has the wisdom and skill to settle the disputes fairly. They point out that China has a good record of doing so with its different neighbors concerning other territorial disputes.

• China has larger number of neighboring states than any other nation in the world, 14 of them directly touching.

• In settling, China has shown remarkable willingness to compromise; on average, China got less than half of the disputed territories, with a total loss of about 1.3 million square miles of land.

CHINA’S POSITION

• 2010, South China Sea is "an area of 'core interest' that is as non-negotiable" and on par with Taiwan and Tibet on the national agenda.

• 2011, China's Global Times newspaper, published by the Communist Party, People's Daily, editorialized on disputes under title "Don't take peaceful approach for granted". Referenced recent boat incidents.

• "If these countries don't want to change their ways with China, they will need to prepare for the sounds of cannons…it may be the only way for the disputes in the sea to be resolved."

• Asked if this reflected official policy, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman stated their commitment "to resolving the maritime dispute through peaceful means.“

• Wants bi-lateral negotiations with other claimants.

CHINA’S TACTICS• China, Vietnam, and Malaysia do not recognize innocent passage for naval ships in EEZs.• “Peacefully coercive”• “Salami slice” small incremental steps not likely to provoke response but

over time change status quo.• Controls all features north of 12 degrees N latitude. Only Spratlys left.

• Use of civilian boats as front line in confrontations.• Plausible deniability.• “Cabbage” tactic.• Backed by Chinese Coast Guard, China Maritime Surveillance and

Chinese Maritime Patrol (Militia).

• PLAN over the horizon.

• Military bases – island building.

“White Ships”Coast Guard & Maritime Surveillance

Civilian & Maritime Militia

U.S.- CHINA RELATIONS• 2012, China cuts oil imports from Iran. Some cooperation w US on

Syria and North Korea.• Aid to North Korea just sufficient to keep from collapse.

• 2013 Pres Obama met President Xi Jinping• Agreed to combat climate change.• Mutual interest in curtailing North Korea's nuclear program.

• Chinese Bargaining chip. • Sharply divided over cyber espionage and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

Xi was dismissive of American complaints about cyber security.

EMERGING CHINA

• "Pax Britannica" ("British Peace") refers to the 19th century.• “The American Century" refers to the 20th century.• The Chinese Century?

• Suggests that the 21st century will be geopolitically dominated by the People's Republic of China.

• Economy of China will overtake the economy of the United States as the largest national economy in the world, a position it held for a large part of the last two millennia.

• “China Dream” Pres Xi Jinping• Global Socio-Cultural Influence (Soft Power)• Economic Well Being (Sticky Power) by 2021 (100 yr anniversary - founding

of Chinese Communist Party)• Security Well Being (Hard Power) by 2049 (100 yr anniversary Founding of

PRC)

CHINA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY• Focus on economic modernization.• Realization that ocean food and energy resources are of increasing importance

to China's future development. • Economic center of gravity shift from deep interior to eastern seaboard.• Need for greater strategic depth for the maritime defense of China's coastline. • Increasing reach of modern naval weapons. • Requirements for a navy that could …………. ……… …….

defend China by operating credibly operating …………………………………… further out at sea.

EMERGING CHINA“One Belt, One Road”

2013• One Belt

Ground Silk Route• One Road

Maritime Silk Route

• AIIBAsian InfrastructureInvestment Bank$100b for projects. Future investments ofalmost $1 trillion.

• Silk Road Fund$40b for businesses

• Long term economic development through Infrastructure.Ports, roads, rail, pipelines,

EMERGING CHINA One Belt, One Road: Push for bigger role in global affairs.

• Wants greater input in global institutions like the IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank which it claims are dominated by American, European and Japanese interests.

• China in the ADB has only 5.47 percent voting right, while Japan and US have 13 percent each.

• Recalls 1989 Tiananmen Square: US economic sanctions which restricted development bank lending & no IMF credits to the PRC.

• 2013 Created Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank as both alternatives to World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

• AIIB capital $100 billion, equivalent to  2⁄3 of the capital of the Asian Development Bank and about half that of the World Bank.

• AIIB 50 founding member states, 37 regional and 20 non-regional Prospective Founding Members (PFM).

EMERGING CHINA• Plans to use Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership as

counter to Trans-Pacific Partnership.• Proposed free trade agreement between the ten members of Association of

Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) and the six states with which ASEAN has existing free trade agreements (Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand).

CHINA’S MILITARY STRATEGY

• 1985 China approved "Active Offshore Defense Strategy". • Strategic Paradigm Shift.

• Previous strategy was "Coastal Defense" • Focused on close-in defense of China's coast in support of a major

land war (against Soviets).• Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) was landward-focused and

was expected to play a supporting role. (Brown Water Navy).• New PLAN strategic orientation was redirected-out to sea (against

US) (Blue Water Navy).

PLAN’S OFFSHORE DEFENSE “ “FORTRESS FLEET” STRATEGY

TWO COMPONENTS

1. East Coast Protection Off Shores Waters Protection“Dragon Overwater”

• Anti-Access, Area Denial ZoneFirst Island Chain

• Interdiction Zone Second Island Chain

80 Anti-shipBallistic Missiles

PLAN’S OFFSHORE DEFENSE “FORTRESS FLEET” STRATEGY

2. Shipping Lanes Protection “String of Pearls” Strategy• Submarines• Bases• Contain India

Maritime Silk Road

CHINA’S MILITARY BUILD-UP• Last 5-10 years China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has

undergone rapid transformation toward a “Blue Water” force.• Identified US Achilles Heels:

• Reliance on aircraft carriers.• PLAN one of largest submarine fleets in world (Diesel). Deployed near Guam and India.

• 2006 PLAN sub surfaced undetected within screen of Carrier Kitty Hawk off Okinawa.• 80 DF21D Anti-ship ballistic missiles deployed along coast.

• Electronics & satellite communications. (GPS)• Sep 2006 destroyed a satellite with a missile.• Electronic Warfare Hacking (EMP)

• 2016 deployed 1st aircraft carrier. • Military Defenses on disputed islands.• Create an “Anti-Access Area Denial Zone.”

U.S.- CHINA RELATIONS

• May 2015, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter warned China to halt its rapid island-building.

• Mar 2016 Obama hosted Xi Jinping for a bilateral meeting on the margins of the Nuclear Security Summit.

• Dec 2016, Pres-elect Trump phone conversation with Tsai Ing-wen, Pres ROC, first such contact with Taiwan by a U.S. pres-elect or pressince 1979, provoked PRC diplomatic protest.

• Trump: “…I don't know why we have to be bound by a 'one China' policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade."

Jan 12, 2017Jan 2017, U.S. SecDef James Mattis reaffirmed US's commitment under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States & Japan to defend Japan, including the Senkaku Islands (East China Sea) that are claimed by China.

• February 2017, Trump spoke with Xi Jinping over phone discussing a wide range of issues; Trump was said to have re-iterated the U.S.′ commitment to the status quo 'one-China' policy.

CURRENT UNITED STATES POSITION

• No use of force or coercion by any claimants• Freedom of Navigation (private, commercial, military vessels & air).• Maritime entitlements are based on UNCLOS and derived from land

features. China’s 9-dash line does not meet these criteria.• US takes no position on merits of competing sovereignty claims.• An effective Code of Conduct is essential. Mechanisms for preventing

incidents.• US supports internationally recognized dispute resolution

mechanisms (ITLOS).• US will respond to allies who want to improve their ability to patrol.• US wants to improve access for US military in areas proximate to

South China Sea.

POSSIBLE US POLICY OPTIONS

• Become more actively involved in resolving sovereignty issues.

• Follow China’s advice and stop interfering in South China Sea (“Panda Hugging”).

• Take a much more assertive posture with China (“Dragon Slaying”).

• Enhance existing policy approaches.

US POLICY SHOULDRECOGNIZE FOLLOWING PRINCIPLES

• South China Sea SCS is not central strategic element in overall US-China relations.

• SCS is issue to be managed: permanent solution is not likely in near term.

• No preferred format for negotiations. Bilateral negotiations should not be dismissed.

• Policy should not be overwhelmingly anti-Chinese. Criticize any participant’s behavior when appropriate.

• Be sensitive to efforts of other parties to balance against China.• State Dept conduct analysis of Philippine claims and quietly inform

Philippines of results.• Do not announce any policy not prepared to back up.

US POLICY SHOULDRECOGNIZE FOLLOWING PRINCIPLES

• Reinforce w all parties that International Law is basis for stability.

• “Let chips fall where may” may require diplomatic finesse w allies.• Support ITLOS decisions.• Svalbard Treaty of 1925 may be potential template for fishing

& oil protocol. • Explore a Joint Development Area in the Spratlys. Share

resources without conceding positions on final boundaries.• Ask ASEAN if wish US assist in moving a Code of Conduct

process forward.• Assist states that want help improving maritime policing and

security.

US POLICY SHOULDRECOGNIZE FOLLOWING PRINCIPLES

• Long term US commitment to improve Philippine maritime capabilities.

• Do not expand current Mutual Defense Treaty to cover Spratly claims.

• Insure US military capability improvements are portrayed as reassurance & stability in area and not as attempts to confront China.

• US naval and air presence should be visible daily.• Increase duration of naval exercises with SCS state &

expand participation with Japan, Australia, S Korea & possibly India.

UNITED STATES POSITION• In the end, the dispute in the South Sea Islands is not one for the

United States to solve, but its ability to contribute, facilitate, balance, or support is necessary towards a solution from which all may benefit.

• Develop long term economic strategy to the Mutual Benefit of both China and US. 1971 US China Trade = $5million/year.2016 US China Trade = $5million/hour

• Use Allies to bolster trade not just militarycontainment.

REFERENCES• The World without the US https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEVqk-eAqy0• How the US is encircling China https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVGUNh0JLHA

• Wikipedia United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea

• Wikipedia international Tribunal for the Law of the Sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Tribunal_for_the_Law_of_the_Sea

• China vs USA and the world https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVGUNh0JLHA

• Videographic What does China Want? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SscQBrJbiN0• China vs US: Empires at War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mkxL4iqcAY• The South China Sea Troubled Waters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-CDMSOGaRY

• Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative https://amti.csis.org/?s=shoal• Foreign Policy Association Great Decisions 2017 “Conflict in the South China Sea” • South China Sea Dispute What you need to know http://www.smh.com.au/world/south-china-

sea-dispute-what-you-need-to-know-20150528-ghbk6u.

References (Continued)• Philippines Repairs Crumbling South China Sea Outpost

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/asia-pacific• Peoples Liberation Navy Doctrine Development

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/plan-doctrine-offshore.htm• The Paracel Islands and US Interests and Approaches

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub1207.pdf• Should China be given the Benefit of Doubt

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Should-China-Be-Given-Benefit-of-Doubt/2014/10/17

• View the executive Summary http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/files/1187-summary.pdf

• Dangerous Grounds Spratly Islands http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub1187.pdf

• MIT Professor M. Taylor Fravel, Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes

• Scarborough Shoal Standoff https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal_standoff• Dual use technologyhttp://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.187/pub_detail.asp

References (Continued)• https://www.quora.com/What-evidence-does-China-offer-to-substantiate-its-claims-of-sovereignty-in-

the-South-China-Sea• Wall Street Journal http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2015/05/27/chinas-claims-in-the-south-china-sea-

the-short-answer/• World Affairs http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/historical-fiction-china%E2%80%99s-south-

china-sea-claims• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zheng_He• China deploys submersible http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/china-exploratory-submersible-indian-

ocean-minerals/1/876589.html• CSIS China Building One Belt One Road https://www.csis.org/analysis/buildingIndia Defense Media

http://defenceupdate.in/chinese-media-slams-indias-meddling-in-sri-lanka/• India Defense Media http://defenceupdate.in/chinese-media-slams-indias-meddling-in-sri-lanka/• http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/nov/19/inside-china-china-concedes-natuna-

islands-to-indo/• http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/natunas.htm• http://jeffhead.com/redseadragon/index.htm• CNA Paper South China Sea US Policy and Options https://www.cna.org/cna_files/pdf/IOP-2014-

U-009109.pdf

SUPERPOWER CONFRONTATION• Zero-Sum. Power Transfer Theory - Historically Ascending Power and

Receding Power go to war as the “graph lines cross.” “Cannot be 2 tigers on one mountain.”

• Heightened Rivalry, Increased Multipolarity.• Cold war US-USSR. There was no economic interdependence. • Other nations in two separate allied “camps.”

• Lowered Rivalry, Increased Multipolarity.• Neither emerges as sole superpower. Mutual Deterrence.• Economic Interdependence: Failure of either state would be catastrophic to

both.• Global Cooperation vs Confrontation. • Other nations have relationships/trade with both.

• Peaceful Replacement. US-England

PANDA HUGGING VS DRAGON SLAYING

• China’s rise should be welcome as a responsible security partner.

• Incentives for good behavior. Reassurance• Disincentives for bad behavior. Deterrence• Wider engagement with Multi-Players.

Should the United States,the other disputants in the South China Sea, and

“the international community” give China a chance? Yes MIT Professor M. Taylor Fravel, Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes

1. China’s territorial claim is negotiable. View 9-dash line as China’s bargaining perimeters rather than its actual belief of its borders.2. Since its negotiable, it is better to let China and its neighbors settle this dispute.3. All of China's other territorial disputes have been settled this way. 4. Historically China has a track record of settling territorial disputes fairly.

No

1. China is in expansionist mode to defend it coast and sea lanes.

2. Multi-lateral discussions.

3. US is concerned that China may coerce its small neighbors into accepting unequal terms.

Should the United States,the other disputants in the South China Sea, and

“the international community” give China a chance?

Yes4.(cont) China has larger number of neighboring states than any other nation in the world, 14 of them directly touching.4.(cont) However, to date, China has settled all recent land border disputes except the ones with India and Bhutan. All of the settlements were reached amicably.

No

4. 1962 China-India War. 2009 China-Vietnam war

Should the United States,the other disputants in the South China Sea, and

“the international community” give China a chance?

Yes4.(cont) In settling, China has shown remarkable flexibility and willingness to compromise; and in fact, on average, China got less than half of the disputed territories, with a total loss of about 1.3 million square miles of land.

No3. Most of that area was Mongolia which declared Independence in 1911 and Russian forces drove Chinese 1919-1921. China kept only “inner Mongolia.”

Should the United States,the other disputants in the South China Sea, and

“the international community” give China a chance?

Yes4. China-Vietnam dispute. The two completely settled and demarcated their land borders in 2009.5. In addition, they have also divided the Gulf of Tonkin in half. The dividing line has become China’s first sea border.6. Finally, the two have initiated negotiations concerning their disputes in the South China Sea.Although they exchanged blows over a Chinese oil rig in May 2014, the two have resumed working relations and reassured each other that they will continue to work for a peaceful solution to the territorial disputes.

No4. 2009 China-Vietnam war caused 62,000 Chinese and 57,000 Vietnamese casualties.5. China had already divided the Gulf of Tonkin in the “original 11-line.” 6. China seized Paracel Islands by force.

Chinese Autonomous Regions

Like a province, an Autonomous Region has its own local government, but it has more legislative rights. An autonomous region is a minority entity which has a higher population of a particular minority ethnic group.