Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen ... · Fra Ger Ned Bel Swe Aus Den Por Nor...
Transcript of Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen ... · Fra Ger Ned Bel Swe Aus Den Por Nor...
03/06/2011
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Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company
Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company
The structural transformation drivers in FMCG
Demographic & Cultural
transformation Centre of gravity moving to the east Retail & Shopper transformation
Casino economy Media & communication revolution Brand structure transformation
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Consumer Confidence Drives Demand
95 98 100 102 98 94 88 84 77 82 86 87 92 93 90 90 92
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
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Consumer Confidence Index
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
France Italy Spain Ger UK
Fra: 61 {-4} UK: 67 {-10}
Ita: 57 {-14} Spa: 61 {-9}
Ger: 92 {+9}
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
France Italy Spain Ger UK
Fra: 17% 26% UK: 19% 27%
Ita: 8% 18% Spa: 6% 17%
Ger: 18% 23%
“I have no spare cash!”
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Consumer are saving less
Source: Eurostat,
14.5%
13.5%
14.3%
14.8% 14.6% 14.5%
14.0%
13.6% 13.8% 13.8%
14.2% 14.4%
14.9%
15.6%
16.5%
15.8%
15.1%
14.6%
14.0%
13.6% 13.4%
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Europe overview (*)
5.7% 1.5% 1.0% 4.0% 6.2% 6.2% 6.4% 4.1% 2.7% 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.1%
1.1%
1.7%
1.0%
3.0%
2.8%
0.5% 0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
1.7%
1.3% 1.6%
2.0%
0.1%
1.2% 1.1%
0.2%
6.8%
3.2%
2.0%
7.1%
9.0%
6.7% 6.8%
4.7%
3.1%
3.9%
2.6% 2.9%
2.5%
0.9%
2.3% 2.6%
2.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2008 2009 2010 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11
Unit value change Volume change Nominal Value Growth
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
(*):Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.
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Q1 2011 growth rates per country (versus Q1 2010)
0%
-3%
2% 1% 1%
-1% 1%
-1% 1%
6%
2% 1%
4% 3%
0% 2%
3% 3% 3% 1%
7%
-6% 0% -4%
-2% -2% 1%
-1% 1% 0%
-5%
-1%
1%
-1% -1%
2% 1%
0%
1% 0% 2%
6%
-5.7%
-3.0% -2.1%
-1.2% -0.6% -0.4% -0.1%
0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.8%
2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5%
12.4%
Unit value Volume growth Nominal Value Growth
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USA
4.7% 5.1% 0.8% 5.9% 4.7% 4.8% 1.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
-0.7%
0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9%
0.0%
-1.3%
-0.2%
-2.7%
-1.8% -2.4%
1.3%
0.7%
0.0%
1.1%
-1.2% -0.7%
-1.7% -1.4%
4.7% 3.8%
0.6%
3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7%
0.5% 0.0%
0.4%
-1.1% -0.3%
-1.3% -0.5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2007 2008 2009 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
Fast Moving Consumer Goods Dynamics
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Are shoppers changing?
Fast, Faster, Fastest, …
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85
%
85
%
84
%
84
%
84
%
82
%
82
%
81
%
80
%
80
%
79
%
78
%
78
%
77
%
77
%
76
%
76
%
75
%
75
%
74
%
74
%
74
%
71
%
70
%
70
%
70
%
70
%
69
%
69
%
67
%
62
%
57
%
57
%
56
%
56
%
Store visit Triggers “I shopped at the same
store I always do”
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Number of shopping trips per 4 weeks
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
Germany Italy France UK Spain
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Average spend per shopping trip
14 15 14
15 14 15 14
15
22 22 22
24
23 23 23 23
40 40 41
42
41 41
41
44
18 19 19
20
18 19 19
21
26 26 27
28
26 26 27
28
Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10
€
€ € £ €
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Number of stores Small SM
400-1000m² (most discounts incl)
large SM
1000 - 2500m²
Hypermarket
+2500m²
62.500
7.400
20.250
Since 2000:
+1.950 HM ( +36%)
+5.500 LSM ( +36%)
+10.700 SSM ( +21%)
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Format structure Europe
14% 19% 26% 32% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 35% 35% 35% 12%
16%
20% 21%
23% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23%
26%
26%
25%
26% 26% 27% 27% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% 28% 28%
48% 39%
29% 21% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
HM LSM SSM REM
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TO (mio €) per store
Small SM
400-1000m² (most discounts incl)
large SM
1000 - 2500m²
Hypermarket
+2500m²
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Density HM versus Av TO per store
# of HM per million inhabitants
Turn
over
per
sto
re in m
illio
n €
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Number of stores per million inhabitants
3
23
23
7
7
15
26
5
22
26
10
32
22
3
13
27
8
23
17
9
13
9
22
45
19
11
51
58
48
71
87
86
82
41
80
73
52
76
35
75
25
72
52
109
85
109
125
114
114
121
116
88
103
128
171
138
168
251
304
395
376
37
95
97
116
137
143
161
171
194
196
198
208
211
213
225
245
248
325
397
439
464
TurSlkUKPolPorHunCzeGreSwiFraSpaFinEir
NedIta
SweBelGerDenAusNor
>2500m2
1000-2500m2
400-1000m2
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Format structure by country
55%
28%
4% 12%
32%
9% 17%
26%
9%
28%
39%
25% 25% 29%
42%
51%
11%
39%
17% 10%
21%
15%
51%
48%
34%
14%
29%
32%
20%
33%
27%
34% 30% 23%
35% 15%
29%
13%
40%
34%
11%
19%
53%
40% 34%
25%
65%
43% 25%
51%
19% 13% 19%
22% 25%
10%
35% 17%
27% 11%
15%
4% 4% 5% 6% 9% 11% 11% 17% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 23% 23% 24% 25%
31% 33% 39%
63%
Fra Ger Ned Bel Swe Aus Den Por Nor Spa Fin Eir Swi Ita Cze UK Gre Hun Slk Pol Tur
HM (+2500m²) LSM (1000-2500m²) SSM (400-1000m²) Rem (under 400m²)
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Sto
re D
ensity (
sto
res p
er
mill
ion in
habitants
)
Lowest
tier
Medium
tier
Highest
tier
Hypermarket Small Supermarket
Discount Large Supermarket
Germany
Austria
Denmark
Norway Belgium
France
Finland Sweden Italy
Switzerland
Ireland
Netherlands
UK
Slovakia Hungary
Czech Rep
Spain Portugal
Greece Poland
Slovenia
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33% more shoppers switch stores to
benefit from promotions!
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Promotion Sensitivity: Average Europe
12 12 14 16 16
31 33 34 32 31
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
actively searchpromotions inmy regular store
Change storesfor promotions
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27
23 23
19 19 18
13
30
24 24
20 20 19
14
37
26 26
20 15
UK Italy Spain Switzerland France Belgium Germany
2008
2009
2010
Promotional pressure has increased across Europe…
% of Value on Promotion
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10.1% 11.4%
12.4% 13.8%
14.9% 15.4% 15.9% 16.1% 16.2% 16.0% 15.8% 17.4% 18.2% 18.9% 19.1%
18.0% 18.5% 19.7% 19.1%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Market share discount in Europe
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# of HD per million inhabitants
Mark
et
share
Density HD versus market share
R²=0.971
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Retail Brands Transformation
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The Retail Brands reality is significant, mostly growing, but very diverse
46%
42%
38%
30% 28% 28% 28%
27% 25%
22% 21% 21% 20% 20% 19% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16%
14% 14%
11%
8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
2010 for most countries (some of the smaller markets is 2009 data)
Weighted Global Average:
15.2% (+0.3%)
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Retail Brands share: 9 years, 7 countries and 1944 categories
27.0% 27.4% 28.0% 28.7% 29.3% 30.1% 30.6% 31.4% 31.9%
32.8% 31.3% 32.1%
33.3% 34.7%
35.6% 36.7% 37.2% 37.9% 38.5% 39.1%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Value shareVolume share
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Summary by country ALL Categories 2009 2010Switzerland 46.2% 46.3% 0.1%
UK 42.5% 42.2% -0.3%
Spain 36.4% 38.2% 1.8%
Portugal 28.8% 29.9% 1.1%
Germany 27.7% 28.1% 0.4%
France 27.7% 28.1% 0.4%
Austria 28.0% 27.8% -0.2%
Belgium 26.8% 27.5% 0.7%
Netherlands 25.0% 25.5% 0.5%
Denmark 21.5% 21.7% 0.2%
Sweden 20.7% 20.7% 0.0%
Norway 19.8% 20.6% 0.8%
Slovakia 18.5% 20.1% 1.6%
Hungary 19.6% 20.1% 0.5%
Czech rep 15.6% 17.3% 1.7%
Poland 13.9% 16.4% 2.5%
Italy 14.6% 16.1% 1.5%
Greece 12.2% 13.7% 1.5%
Turkey 9.6% 10.7% 1.1%
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Who buys Retail Brands vs. Manufacturer Brands?
• Shop more often
• Spend more per trip
• Larger HH size
• More Affluent
• Smaller HH size
• Most purchases on
Manufacturer Brands
• Less Affluent
SUPER LOW Retail Brand Buyers SUPER HEAVY Retail Brand Buyers
47 49 54 47 23 32
21 22 11 8
UK FRA GER SPA USA
Share of Retail Brands in total purchases
Super heavy Retail Brand buyers Super low Retail Brand buyers
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Retail brands essentially gain at the expense of secondary and small brands
(*): Based upon a sample of frequently purchased categories
UK France Spain Germany Italy USA
39% 38% 35% 31% 37% 31%
43% 28% 31% 32% 15% 17%
18% 34% 34% 37%
48% 52%
N°1 brand Retail Brands Other brands
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Indications towards the saturation point of ±45% value share
Switzerland and UK plateau at that level for several years
Super Heavy PL buyers max out around the 50% level
PL gain structurally 0.3%-0.5% points per year
2010 15%
2015 17.5%
2020 20%
Retail brands have space to expand:
USA
Catching up European markets
Developing markets
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@Question: Have you ever made a purchase over
the Internet?
84%
0
20
40 60
80
100
Less than 1 month ago
57%
1-3 months ago 21%
4-6 months ago 9%
more than 6 months ago
13%
% of online population
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The grocery online shopper
Source: Homescan 2010
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# shopping trips per year
Average spend per trip
The grocery online
shopper
Source: Homescan 2010
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Distribution of shopping
trips
31%
3%
40%
8%
21%
4%
26%
11%
26%
18%
21%
23%
22%
75%
13%
68%
# trips % spending # trips % spending
more 10 times
4 -10 times
2-3 times
1 time
Source: Homescan 2010
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