CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT Investment in Maa TV Deal Update November 15, 2013.

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CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT Investment in Maa TV Deal Update November 15, 2013

Transcript of CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT Investment in Maa TV Deal Update November 15, 2013.

Page 1: CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT Investment in Maa TV Deal Update November 15, 2013.

CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT

Investment in Maa TVDeal Update

November 15, 2013

Page 2: CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT Investment in Maa TV Deal Update November 15, 2013.

CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT

Situation OverviewBACKGROUND

• SPT sought approval in August 2012 to acquire a 53% controlling stake in Maa TV for INR 6.2BN ($113MM)1 with INR 5.9BN ($107.4MM)1 payable in FYE13 and INR 300MM ($5.4MM)1 payable in FYE15— SPT also had a call option on the 47% minority position beginning on the 5th anniversary of closing

• Previous purchase price represented an enterprise value of INR 11.3 BN ($205MM)1 with an implied TTM2 (FYE12) adjusted EBITDA multiple of 21.8x and NFY3 (FYE13) adjusted EBITDA multiple of 19.8x

• However, the transaction was put on hold due to delays with selling shareholders obtaining 281 tax clearance certificates from the Indian Tax Authority to protect SPT against potential tax liability claims— Nimmagadda Prasad, the Board Chair and majority shareholder of Maa TV, was unable to receive a 281 tax clearance certificate

because he was charged in India for investing in companies owned by a politician’s son in exchange for favorable government treatment

— Any potential purchase is conditional on sellers receiving the 281 tax clearance certificate

CURRENT UPDATE

• Mr. Prasad was recently released from prison

• INR to USD rate devalued since the last offer from 55.0 to 61.4

• Maa TV outperformed its projections due to increased sub fees as a result of partial digitization in FYE13 and FYE14 EBITDA is expected to be between INR 800 – 900MM

• The seller has requested a purchase price of INR 17.6BN ($287MM)4

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(1) Assumes FX rate of 55.0 INR to USD at the time of the last offer.(2) TTM stands for trailing twelve months.(3) NFY stands for next fiscal year.(4) Assumes current FX rate of 61.4 INR to USD.

FY14 EBITDA

(figures in INR MM) FY13 EBITDA Low High

As of August 2012 567 820 820As of October 2013 646 800 900

Variance 14% (2%) 10%

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INR to USD Valuation Implied Multiples Metrics

FX Rate INR (MM) USD ($MM) TTM2 NFY3 TTM NFY

GEC View Prior Valuation at Previous INR FX Rate 55.0 11,254 $205 21.8x 19.8x 516 567

Revised GEC View INR 15.8BN Valuation at Current FX Rate 61.4 15,800 $257 21.9x 19.8x 723 800

INR 17.6BN Valuation at Current FX Rate 61.4 17,600 $287 24.3x 22.0x 723 800

INR 19.8BN Valuation at Current FX Rate 61.4 19,800 $322 25.6x 22.0x 773 900

Seller'sView

• SPT to evaluate purchasing (i) 53% of the Company under the same terms as the prior process or (ii) purchase 100%

• Note that we have not received updated projections and detailed current financials since the time of GEC, but have modified growth projections as follows:

• Our internal analysis shows an increase in current valuation of Maa TV (in INR) due to an increase in industry multiples and higher profitability

• Based upon previously agreed multiples at the time of the GEC (“Revised GEC View”), the valuation is INR 15.8BN ($257MM)

• SPT to evaluate a valuation range of INR 17.6BN ($287MM) and INR 19.8BN ($322MM) based on the seller’s view of a FYE14 EBITDA multiple of 22.0x on a range of INR 800 – 900MM

Valuation Considerations

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(1) Preliminary valuation based on projection estimates. The valuation may change after we receive updated projections and detailed current financials.(2) TTM stands for trailing twelve months.(3) NFY stands for next fiscal year.

(INR in MM) FYE15E FYE16E FYE17E FYE18E FYE19E

EBITDA Growth RatesGEC Financials 38.1% 42.1% 14.3% 10.3% N/ARevised GEC View Financials 23.8% 23.8% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0%

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• The table below summarizes the returns under the current valuation ranges for 53% and 100% equity purchases. The returns are based on preliminary information and include a number of assumptions1,2

• Under the 53% acquisition case, we assume that SPT will receive a call option for the remaining 47% exercisable in 5 years at a 14.0x FYE19 EBITDA multiple for 100%

Returns Analysis

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(1) As updated projections beyond FYE14 were unavailable, we have assumed normalized revenue and EBITDA growth projections beyond FYE14 EBITDA of INR 800MM. This analysis is preliminary and subject to change based on receiving an updated forecast. Call option exercise price assumed based off FMV estimated at 14.0x FYE19 EBITDA.

(2) As updated projections beyond FYE14 were unavailable, we have assumed normalized revenue and EBITDA growth projections beyond FYE14 EBITDA of INR 900MM. This analysis is preliminary and subject to change based on receiving an updated forecast. Call option exercise price assumed based off FMV estimated at 14.0x FYE19 EBITDA.

(INR MM) Upfront PaybackValuation NPV IRR DWM Period

GEC View Acquire 53% at INR 11.3BN EV, No Call Exercise 11,300 1,254 16.8% (5,908) 11 Years

Acquire 53% at INR 15.8BN EV and Exercise Call (YR5)1 15,800 (229) 12.3% (16,061) 15 Years

Acquire 100% at INR 15.8BN EV1 15,800 31 12.8% (15,800) 13 Years

Acquire 53% at INR 17.6BN EV and Exercise Call (YR5)1 17,600 (1,085) 10.8% (16,898) 16 Years

Acquire 100% at INR 17.6BN EV1 17,600 (1,663) 10.9% (17,600) 13 Years

Acquire 53% at INR 19.8BN EV and Exercise Call (YR5)2 19,800 (1,237) 10.8% (19,011) 16 Years

Acquire 100% at INR 19.8BN EV2 19,800 (1,870) 10.9% (19,800) 13 Years

RevisedGECView

Seller'sView

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SPT Preliminary Valuation

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• Our preliminary valuation ranges from approximately $238MM1 to $281MM1 (INR 14.6BN to 17.3BN) based on a weighted average of all approaches

• The revised view of valuation of INR 15.8BN ($257MM)1, which is in line with previously agreed upon multiples at the time of the GEC, is within our valuation range

Note: This analysis is preliminary and subject to change based on receiving updated actual financials and forecast.(1) Assumes current FX rate of 61.4 INR to USD.

METHODOLOGY IMPLIED ENTERPRISE VALUE (USD) COMMENTS

DCF - Perpetuity Growth ■■

WACC Range: 12.50% - 13.00%Perpetuity Growth: 7.0% - 8.0%

Trading Multiples - FYE15 EBITDA ■Trading Multiple of FYE15 EBITDA Range: 13.0x - 14.0x plus a 30.0% Equity Control Premium

Trading Multiples - FYE14 EBITDA ■Trading Multiple of FYE14 EBITDA Range: 15.0x - 17.0x plus a 30.0% Equity Control Premium

Trading Multiples - TTM EBITDA ■Trading Multiple of TTM EBITDA Range: 17.0x - 19.0x plus a 30.0% Equity Control Premium

Transaction Comparables - FYE14 EBITDA

■Transaction Comparables Multiple of FYE14 EBITDA Range: 19.5x - 22.5x$254

$254

$248

$266

$204

$293

$284

$281

$287

$267

$175 $200 $225 $250 $275 $300 $325 $350 $375

Enterprise Value

Previous GEC EV: $205MM Revised GEC EV: $257MM

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Purchase Price Analysis

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• The Revised GEC View purchase price is in line with the increase in EBITDA for the corresponding periods

— The seller’s asking price increase is higher than the increase in the business profitability

• The EBITDA multiples in the current update are in line with the analysis prepared during the GEC update

— The seller’s asking price implies significantly higher multiples

Note: TTM as of the GEC update was FYE12. TTM as of the current update estimated as the avg. of FYE13 and FYE14 , and will be updated when we receive monthly financials from the company.Next Fiscal Year (NFY) was FYE13 in the GEC update and FYE14 in the current update. NFY+1 was FYE14 in the GEC update and FYE15 in the current update.

(INR MM) GEC Update Current Update

Deloitt e Valuation GEC Recommended Seller SPT Valuation

Low High Purchase Price New Offer Asking Price Low High

Enterprise Value/Purchase Price 11,163 13,363 11,254 15,800 17,600 14,630 17,278

Implied EBITDA Multiples

TTM 21.6x 25.9x 21.8x 21.9x 24.3x 20.2x 23.9x

Next Fiscal Year 19.7x 23.6x 19.8x 19.8x 22.0x 18.3x 21.6x

Next Fiscal Year +1 13.6x 16.3x 13.7x 15.9x 17.8x 14.8x 17.4x

EBITDA

TTM 516 516 516 723 723 723 723

Next Fiscal Year 567 567 567 800 800 800 800

Next Fiscal Year +1 820 820 820 991 991 991 991

(INR MM) GEC Update Current Update Variance

EBITDA

TTM 516 723 40%

Next Fiscal Year 567 800 41%

Next Fiscal Year +1 820 991 21%

GEC 11,254 15,800 40%

Seller Asking Price 11,254 17,600 56%

(USD MM) GEC Update Current Update Variance

EBITDA

TTM $9.4 $11.8 25%

Next Fiscal Year 10.3 13.0 26%

Next Fiscal Year +1 14.9 16.1 8%

GEC $205 $257 26%

Seller Asking Price $205 $287 40%

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Financial Impact to SPT – Seller’s View ($ in MM)

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(1) Preliminary estimate.(2) As updated projections beyond FYE14 were unavailable, we have assumed normalized revenue and EBITDA growth projections based on a FYE14 EBITDA of INR 800MM. This analysis is preliminary and

subject to change based on receiving an updated forecast. Call option exercise price assumed based off FMV estimated at 14.0x FYE19 EBITDA.(3) As updated projections beyond FYE14 were unavailable, we have assumed normalized revenue and EBITDA growth projections based on a FYE14 EBITDA of INR 900MM. This analysis is preliminary and

subject to change based on receiving an updated forecast. Call option exercise price assumed based off FMV estimated at 14.0x FYE19 EBITDA.

Valuation: $287MM (INR 17,600)2 Valuation: $322MM (INR 19,800)3

53% and Exercise 47% Call (YR5) 53% and Exercise 47% Call (YR5)

Fiscal Year End March 31, Fiscal Year End March 31,

FYE15E FYE16E FYE17E FYE18E FYE19E FYE20E FYE15E FYE16E FYE17E FYE18E FYE19E FYE20E

SPT Ownership 51% 51% 53% 53% 53% 100% 51% 51% 53% 53% 53% 100%

SPT EBIT IMPACT

SPT EBIT Before PPA $15 $19 $22 $24 $27 $29 $17 $21 $25 $27 $30 $33

Less: PPA¹ (21) (18) (15) (6) (6) (6) (23) (20) (17) (6) (6) (6)

EBIT to SPT After PPA ($5) $1 $7 $19 $21 $24 ($6) $1 $8 $21 $24 $27

Cumulative EBIT to SPT (5) (4) 3 21 42 66 (6) (5) 3 24 48 74

SPT CASH IMPACT

SPT Free Cash Flows $11 $15 $18 $15 $19 $21 $12 $17 $20 $16 $21 $23

Less: Minority Dividends (0) (7) (9) (7) (9) (5) (1) (8) (10) (8) (10) (5)

Less: SPT Investment - 51% Equity (146) -- -- -- -- -- (164) -- -- -- -- --

Less: SPT Investment - 2% Call Option -- -- (7) -- -- -- -- -- (8) -- -- --

Less: SPT Investment - 47% Call Option -- -- -- -- -- (183) -- -- -- -- -- (206)

Net Free Cash Flows to SPT ($136) $8 $2 $8 $10 ($167) ($153) $9 $2 $9 $11 ($187)

Cumulative Net Free Cash Flows to SPT (136) (128) (126) (118) (108) (275) (153) (145) (142) (134) (122) (310)

100% Upfront Acquisition 100% Upfront Acquisition

Fiscal Year End March 31, Fiscal Year End March 31,

FYE15E FYE16E FYE17E FYE18E FYE19E FYE20E FYE15E FYE16E FYE17E FYE18E FYE19E FYE20E

SPT Ownership 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

SPT EBIT IMPACT

SPT EBIT Before PPA $15 $19 $22 $24 $27 $29 $17 $21 $25 $27 $30 $33

Less: PPA¹ (21) (18) (15) (6) (6) (6) (23) (20) (17) (6) (6) (6)

EBIT to SPT After PPA ($5) $1 $7 $19 $21 $24 ($6) $1 $8 $21 $24 $27

Cumulative EBIT to SPT (5) (4) 3 21 42 66 (6) (5) 3 24 48 74

SPT CASH IMPACT

SPT Free Cash Flows $11 $15 $18 $15 $19 $21 $12 $17 $20 $16 $21 $23

Less: Minority Dividends -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Less: SPT Investment - 100% Equity (287) -- -- -- -- -- (322) -- -- -- -- --

Net Free Cash Flows to SPT ($276) $15 $18 $15 $19 $21 ($310) $17 $20 $16 $21 $23

Cumulative Net Free Cash Flows to SPT (276) (261) (243) (228) (209) (189) (310) (293) (273) (257) (235) (212)

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Financial Impact to SPT - Acquire 53% at INR 15.8BN Valuation($ in MM)

8(1) Preliminary estimate.(2) As updated projections beyond FYE14 were unavailable, we have assumed normalized revenue and EBITDA growth projections based on a FYE14 EBITDA of INR 800MM. This analysis is preliminary and

subject to change based on receiving an updated forecast. Call option exercise price assumed based off FMV estimated at 14.0x FYE19 EBITDA.

Valuation: $257MM (INR 15,800)¹

53% and Exercise 47% Call (YR5) 100% Upfront Acquisition

Fiscal Year End March 31, Fiscal Year End March 31,

FYE15E FYE16E FYE17E FYE18E FYE19E FYE19E FYE15E FYE16E FYE17E FYE18E FYE19E FYE19E

SPT Ownership 51% 51% 53% 53% 53% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

SPT EBIT IMPACT

SPT EBIT Before PPA $15 $19 $22 $24 $27 $29 $15 $19 $22 $24 $27 $29

Less: PPA¹ (19) (16) (14) (5) (5) (5) (19) (16) (14) (5) (5) (5)

EBIT to SPT After PPA ($3) $3 $9 $19 $22 $24 ($3) $3 $9 $19 $22 $24

Cumulative EBIT to SPT (3) (0) 8 27 49 73 (3) (0) 8 27 49 73

SPT CASH IMPACT

SPT Free Cash Flows $11 $15 $16 $14 $19 $20 $11 $15 $16 $14 $19 $20

Less: Minority Dividends (0) (7) (8) (7) (9) (5) -- -- -- -- -- --

Less: SPT Investment - Upfront Equity (131) -- -- -- -- -- (257) -- -- -- -- --

Less: SPT Investment - 2% Call Option -- -- (7) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Less: SPT Investment - 47% Call Option -- -- -- -- -- (183) -- -- -- -- -- --

Net Free Cash Flows to SPT ($121) $8 $1 $8 $10 ($167) ($247) $15 $16 $14 $19 $20

Cumulative Net Free Cash Flows to SPT (121) (113) (112) (104) (94) (262) (247) (231) (215) (201) (182) (162)

Expected payback in year 15 Expected payback in year 13

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Appendix

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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis(INR in MM)

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• SPT assumes a WACC range based off the risk profile of comparable India broadcasting companies and a perpetuity growth range based off the sustainable long term growth of comparable India broadcasting companies, accounting for India’s projected inflation rate. SPT applied:

— WACC: 12.5% - 13.0%

— Perpetuity Growth: 7.0% - 8.0%

FYE15E FYE16E FYE17E FYE18E FYE19EFree Cash Flow:

EBITDA $0.0 991 1,227 1,411 1,552 1,707Less: Depreciation and Amortization 0.0 (60) (57) (58) (63) (69)EBIT $0.0 930 1,170 1,353 1,489 1,638Less: Taxes 0.0 (301) (379) (438) (482) (531)Unlevered Cash Flows $0.0 629 791 915 1,006 1,107Less: Capex 0.0 (119) (53) (54) (64) (70)Less: Changes in NWC 0.0 8 (71) (65) (56) (62)Less: Programming Purchases 0.0 (1,329) (1,274) (1,409) (1,565) (1,534)Plus: Programming Amortization 0.0 1,111 1,109 1,272 1,394 1,534Plus: D&A 0.0 60 57 58 63 69Net Unlevered Cash Flows $0.0 360 559 717 779 1,045Discount Period 0.00 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50Discount Factor @ 12.75% 100% 94% 84% 74% 66% 58%Present Value of Net Unlevered Cash Flows $0.0 339 467 531 512 609

Perpetuity Growth Method

NPV of Cash Flows 2,457 Enterprise Value RangeFCF (FYE19E) 1,045 Perpetuity Growth RatePerpetuity Growth Rate 7.5% $14,199 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5%Terminal Value 21,395 12.25% 13,347 14,437 15,757 17,387 19,452 Present Value of Terminal Value 11,742 12.50% 12,764 13,753 14,939 16,388 18,200

% of Enterprise Value 82.7% 12.75% 12,229 13,128 14,199 15,495 17,097Enterprise Value - Control 14,199 13.00% 11,734 12,556 13,527 14,692 16,116Implied EV as a Multiple of TTM EBITDA 19.6x 13.25% 11,277 12,030 12,914 13,966 15,240Implied EV as a Multiple of FY 2014E EBITDA 17.7xImplied Terminal EBITDA Multiple 12.5x Enterprise Value Range 12,555 -- 16,390

Dis

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Comparable Company Analysis(INR in MM)

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• SPT assumes trading multiples based off TTM, FYE14, and FYE15 EBITDA that are within the range of public India broadcasting companies and applied an additional 30% control premium, which was applied by Deloitte during its valuation of the Maa TV in June 2012. SPT applied:

— TTM EBITDA: 17.0x – 19.0x plus a 30% control premium

— FYE14 EBITDA: 15.0x – 17.0x plus a 30% control premium

— FYE15 EBITDA: 13.0x – 14.0x plus a 30% control premium

• The market multiples have increased since SPT presented previously to the GEC:

ValuationEnterprise Value /

Revenue EBITDA Revenue (Fiscal Year Ended March 31, $USD) TTM FYE14 FYE15 TTM FYE14 FYE15

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. 6.3x 5.9x 5.1x 22.4x 21.8x 17.8x

Sun TV Network Ltd 7.8 7.5 6.5 13.8 10.6 9.1

Median 7.1x 6.7x 5.8x 18.1x 16.2x 13.5x

Mean 7.1 6.7 5.8 18.1 16.2 13.5

EV / TTM EBITDA

GEC Current % Growth

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. 18.1x 22.4x 24.3%

Sun TV Network Ltd 9.9x 13.8x 38.7%

Mean 14.0x 18.1x 29.4%

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Comparable Transaction Analysis(INR in MM)

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• SPT assumes transaction multiples based off FYE14 EBITDA that are within the range of observed recent transaction multiples of networks in India

— SPT applied a FYE14 EBITDA multiple range of 19.5x – 22.5x

Enterprise Value/

Announced Target Buyer EV Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA

01/03/12 ETV Network Pvt. Ltd. TV18 Broadcast Limited 24,225 3,907 1,072 6.2x 22.6x

05/18/12 Living Media India Limited Aditya Birla Private Equity 14,522 1,989 NA 7.3 NM

12/23/09 ETC Networks Ltd. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. 3,785 718 178 4.3 21.3

11/17/08 Asianet Communications Star Jupiter TV Entertainment 27,164 2,899 1,393 9.4 19.5

High 9.4x 22.6xMean 6.8 21.1Median 6.8 21.3Low 4.3 19.5