Confidence Survey Jan 2011

January, 2011

Appraiser

Workshops

Fine and

Decorative Arts

Market Confidence

Survey

APPRAISER

WORKSHOPS

425 South Washington St

Alexandria, VA 22314

703-836-1020

www.appraiserworkshops.com

www.appraiserworkshops.blogspot.com

Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey


Jan 2011

The January 2011 Appraiser Workshops Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey results have

been tabulated. There were 139 responses to the survey this quarter. Although this is a respectable number

when compared to some other reports, (the RICS Arts and Antiques survey typically gets between 35-60

responses) we hope to increase the number of responses in the future by contacting more appraisers,

dealers and specialists directly. The more responses the survey has, the higher the significance and reliability

of the data and results. The data collected is based upon the market experiences of appraisers, dealers, and

auction house specialists and their confidence level in the various market sectors. It is still anecdotal and not

based upon actual sales results, yet the results are based upon information from a very focused, reliable and

knowledgeable universe of respondents.

I hope to introduce new quantitative data with future reports. The October report was the first, containing

only basic information and data reporting. With the second survey results, trending comes into focus, and

with future indicators we will soon compare and graph each trend for each market sector surveyed over

longer periods of time. The possibility of creating an index is also possible and a viable option.

For this report, I have introduced the All Sectors indicator for both present and future expectation survey

results. This computation is based upon the average of the all of the sectors responses, 14 for the present

indicators and 4 for future expectations. The future plan for the survey and report is to become more

comprehensive in our analytical developments, yet still remain user friendly and easy to follow.

The results should prove beneficial to appraisers when analyzing and documenting market conditions and

trends. Please reference the Appraiser Workshops Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey

results in appraisal reports. If you have questions about the Appraiser Workshops Fine and Decorative Arts

Market Confidence Survey and reports, please feel free to contact me at [email protected]

Todd W. Sigety, ISA CAPP

Jane C. Brennom, ISA CAPP

Appraiser Workshops

425 South Washington St

Alexandria, VA 22314


SURVEY RESULTS - Present

All Sectors

The new All Sectors indicator is an average of the 14 individual present confidence level market sectors.

The results for January show that 44.49% of those surveyed have positive confidence in the overall fine and

decorative art markets. This is up from 41.55% in October of 2010. The negative confidence level fell from

26.35% in October to 20.53% in January. The results appear to be a positive for the market as a whole,

given that positive confidence levels increased and negatives decreased.

Although the trending is positive, keep in mind some of the very high performing sectors may skew the

overall results, such as the very strong positive responses from the upper markets of both the Asian Art

and silver market sectors.


Fine Art Middle Market

The Fine Art Middle Market sector is

showing some positive signs and

trends. The positive confidence

levels increased from a very low

9.77% in October of 2010 to 22.22%

in January of 2011. The negative

impressions also dropped by nearly

half, from 43.61% to 23.81%.

Fine Art Upper Market

The Fine Art Upper Market remains

very strong, with a positive

confidence level of over 85%, and

overall remaining nearly unchanged

from the positive confidence levels

of October 2010.


Asian Middle Market

The Asian Middle Market is showing

signs of growth, with positives

confidence levels increasing and

negatives decreasing. Many remain

neutral on this market sector, but

with such strength showing in the

Asian Upper Market Sector, there

will typically be a trickledown effect

with increasing confidence and

demand in the lower sector.

Asian Art – Upper Market

Like the Fine Art Upper Market, the

Asian Art Upper Market sector is

extremely strong, and is still

advancing. The strong positives

confidence levels in October of 2010

at 81.9% increased to 86.92% in

January, while the negatives

decreased from 8.57% to a very low

1.87%. It is a positive market

indicator when positive confidence

levels increase while the negatives

decline. The question for the Asian

Market investors and collectors, is

this a bubble?


Furniture and Decorative Arts – Middle Market

The confidence level of the furniture

and decorative arts middle market

sector remains firmly seated within

the negative, and perhaps represents

most of the negative issues found

within many sectors today. I believe

there is an oversupply and a lack of

demand for this particular sector, and

in economic terms, the sector is out

of equilibrium. The negative

confidence levels dropped only a

small amount over the past three

months from a high of 63.2% to

59.38%. To offset that minor

positive, the positive results also

dropped from 10.4% to 7.81%. This is most definitely a sector that is showing very low market confidence

from the valuation community.

Furniture and Dec Arts Upper Market

The Furniture and Decorative Arts

Upper Market remains strong,

especially when compared to the

middle market. Positive confidence

level responses increased and

negative dropped. The upper market

of the Furniture and Decorative Arts

remains strong.


Luxury Goods

The Luxury Goods sector saw its

positive response move from 43.59%

to 60%, a very impressive increase

over a period of only three months.

The negatives of the sector also

dropped from 17.95% to under 10%.

Recent news reports confirm that

many luxury goods retailers had an

excellent fourth quarter. Momentum

appears strong, but will it last

throughout the new year now that

the holiday season is over?

Household Contents

The Household contents sectors

remains firmly in negative territory.

With negative responses remaining

almost unchanged from 59.68 to

58.73, and positive responses

declining by nearly half, from

14.42% to 7.94%. Not a good sign

for this market sector.

Fine and Decoartive Arts Market Confidence Survey

Ancient and Ethnographic Middle Market

The survey results are showing signs

of negative overtones, although the

market is sector is not strongly

positive, the trend appears to be

upward, with positives increasing

and negatives falling. The sector

shows over 60% of respondents

being neutral.

Ancient and Ethnographic Upper Market

The upper market of Ancient and

Ethnographic art remains strong,

with an upward trend revealing

positives increasing from 53.95% to

over 60% and negatives falling from

13.16% to 8.14%. A good sign for

the market sectors continued

strength.


Textiles Middle Market

The middle market survey results of

textiles continues to reveal a lack of

confidence. The negatives grew

slightly over the quarter from

45.16% to 48.98, and unfortunately

the positive responses declined

significantly from 16.13%, down to a

mere 3.06%. The trending for this

sector is not at all positive.

Textiles Upper Market

The upper market of textiles is

showing some signs of declining

confidence. Positives fell from

48.35% to 36.08% and negative

increased slightly from 8.79% to

9.28%. The number of neutral

responses also increased.

Unfortunately, of the 14 present

condition sectors the Fine and

Decorative Arts Market Confidence

survey tracks, this is the only upper

market sector that has shown a

decrease in positive confidence

responses.


Silver Middle Market

Driven by the high cost of silver on

the spot market, both the middle

and upper markets of silver are

performing well. The middle

market sector has shown increased

positive responses and a decrease

in negative responses, with neutral

responses staying nearly the same.

Silver Upper Market

The silver upper market sector is

strong, with increasing positive

responses of over 77% and negative

responses falling from over 10% to

below 4%. A strong sector.

Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidnece Survey

SURVEY RESULTS Future Expectations

All Sectors

The all sectors report for future expectations in the fine and decorative arts market shows much more

balance than the individual present situation indicators. The positives and neutral responses are strong, the

negatives are surprisingly low. Although many responding are neutral in their expectations, the high positives

and low negatives is a good indicator for the overall market in the future.


Future Exceptions Fine Art Middle

Future expectations for the fine and

middle market are neutral to

positive. The negatives remain low

and decreased over the past three

months, while the positives also saw

a decline, the neutral responses

increased, either meaning more

balance in the sector, or perhaps

valuers are just not sure how it will

trend in the future.

Future Expectations Fine Art Upper

The Fine Art upper market sector

remains strong, with positives above

70%, although this level did fall

slightly, the negatives for January are

at 0, which is certainly a strong

indicator of the strength of this

market sector for the future.

Fine and Decoartive Arts Makret Confidnece Survey

Future Expectations Furniture and Dec Arts Middle Market

The future expectations of the

Furniture and Decorative Arts

Middle Market is rather blurred.

The positives are not overly low

(especially when considering the

present sector results), and the

trend is positive, while negatives of

this sector also increased from 11%

to over 17%. Neutral responses fell.

From the results, the future of this

sector probably could move in just

about any direction. given the mixed

results, and the poor state of the

present market sector indicators, it

will probably be a while before any

significant judgments can be made

about the future.

Future Expectations Furniture and Dec Arts Upper Market

The future expectations remain

strong for furniture and decorative

arts upper market, with positives

remaining about the same, negatives

falling from 9.52% to a mere 1.79%

and a strong neutral response.

Confidence Survey Jan 2011

Documents

Transcript of Confidence Survey Jan 2011