Confidence-based-learning in investment analysis

Enric Serradell-Lopez, UOCPablo Lara Navarra

David Castillo MerinoInés Gonzalez Gonzalez

Index

• Introduction• Theoretical discussion• Research design• Results and discussion

Introduction

• Knowledge• Professional knowledge (ISCO)• Knowledge measurement

• Knowledge in organizations

Research problem

Uninformed - Misinformed

What is worse?

Four situations of knowledge and confidence

With confidence

Without confidence

Correct answer

Science Uncertainty

Incorrect answer

Delusion Ignorance

Knowledge Assessment

• Training test (formative assesment)

• Evaluative test (summative assessment)

Research questions

• Is there a difference in the degree of confidence in the responses in the two periods?

• Does it match the degree of difficulty of the questions provided by teachers with lower levels of confidence in the answers?

• Is it related to the time spent fulfilling in the test with the level of confidence in the answers?

Final version test

• 20 questions: Four alternative answers.• Three levels of difficulty (8,8,4)• Each question has associated other

(confidence degree)• Number or participants: 101 participants first

questionnaire + 67 participant second questionnaire

Analysis

Confidence: Likert-type scale , five positions

1: Extremely unsure2: Very unsure3: Somewhat sure4: Sure5: Extremely sure

Research questions

• Is there a difference in the degree of confidence in the responses in the two periods?

• Does it match the degree of difficulty of the questions provided by teachers with lower levels of confidence in the answers?

• Is it related to the time spent fulfilling in the test with the level of confidence in the answers?

Is there a difference in the degree of confidence in the responses in the two periods?

Test t for equality of means

Confidence period 1: 1,8

Confidence period 2: 3,35

Research questions

• Is there a difference in the degree of confidence in the responses in the two periods?

• Does it match the degree of difficulty of the questions provided by teachers with lower levels of confidence in the answers?

• Is it related to the time spent fulfilling in the test with the level of confidence in the answers?

Does it match the degree of difficulty of the questions provided by teachers with lower levels of confidence in the answers?

Period 1 Period 2

Level 1(basic level)

2,05 3,5

Level 2(intermediate level)

1,8 3,2

Level 3(advanced level)

1,2 3,1

Research questions

• Is there a difference in the degree of confidence in the responses in the two periods?

• Does it match the degree of difficulty of the questions provided by teachers with lower levels of confidence in the answers?

• Is it related to the time spent fulfilling in the test with the level of confidence in the answers?

Is it related to the time spent fulfilling in the test with the level of confidence in the answers?

Period 1 Period 2

Time (seconds)

965(48,25 seconds/question)

109(55 seconds/question)

Confidence-based-learning in investment analysis

Enric Serradell-Lopez, UOCPablo Lara Navarra

David Castillo MerinoInés Gonzalez Gonzalez