Conference Programme - UNIVPM · historical perspective using long wave patterns Marco Gallegati...

ConferenceProgramme

Large-scaleCrises:1929vs2008

InternationalConference-December17-19,2015,Ancona,Italy

MEDAGLIA DEL PRESIDENTE DELLA REPUBBLICA

PiazzaleMartelli,8-60121Ancona–Italy–tel.(071)220.71.01–fax(071)220.71.02

http://1929vs2008.univpm.it/

ScientificCommitteeFrancoAmatori(UniversitàBocconi,Milano)GérardBéaur(EHESS,Paris)MichaelD.Bordo(RutgersUniversity)YoussefCassis(EuropeanUniversityInstitute,Fiesole)FrancescoChiapparino(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)PierLuigiCiocca(LUISS,Roma)MarcelloDeCecco(ScuolaNormaleSuperiorediPisa)DomenicoDelliGatti(UniversitàCattolica,Milano)BarryEichengreen(UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley)MicheleFratianni(IndianaUniversity,Bloomington-UnivPM,Ancona)MauroGallegati(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)BruceC.Greenwald(ColumbiaUniversity,NewYork)HaroldJames(PrincetonUniversity)AlanKirman(UniversitéAix-Marseille)RichardC.Koo(NomuraResearchInstitute,Tokyo)MarianaMazzucato(UniversityofSussex)LucaPapi(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)JamesB.Ramsey(NewYorkUniversity)AlbertoRusso(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)WilliSemmler(NewSchoolUniversity,NewYork)JosephStiglitz(ColumbiaUniversity,NewYork)GianniToniolo(LUISS&DukeUniversity-emeritus)OrganizingCommiteeHeadOrganizers: MariannaAstore(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche) EugenioCaverzasi(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)LocalOrganizers: AlessandroCaiani(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)

ErmannoCatullo(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)AnnaritaColasante(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)LisaGianmoena(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)FedericoGiri(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)RuggeroGrilli(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)GabrieleMorettini(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)AlbertoRusso(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)

ExternalOrganizers: LucaAndreoniContactsPiazzaleMartelli,8-60121Ancona–Italyfax(071)220.71.02http://[email protected]



Thursday,December179.00-10.00 Registration10.00-10.30 OpeningWelcome10.30-13.00 PlenarySessionI13.00-14.30 Lunch14.30-16.30 ParallelSessions(A)16.30-17.00 CoffeeBreak17.00-18.30 ParallelSessions(B)

Friday,December188.30-10.30 ParallelSessions(C)10.30-11.00 CoffeeBreak11.00-13.00 ParallelSessions(D)13.00-14.00 Lunch14.00-16.00 PlenarySessionII16.30-18.00 Documentary20.00 SocialDinner

Saturday,December199.00-11.00 ParallelSessions(E)11.00-11.30 CoffeeBreak11.30-13.30 PlenarySessionIII13.30 Lunch



Thursday,December179.00 Registration(RoomT34)10.00–10.30 OpeningWelcome(RoomA)

10.30–13.00 PlenarySessionI(RoomA)

Chair:FrancescoChiapparino(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)-UnintendedConsequences;UnlearnedLessonsfromcrisesingeneraland1929and2008inparticularAlanKirman(UniversitéAix-Marseille)

-IRI1933-2002.Life,death…andresurrection?FrancoAmatori(UniversitàBocconi,Milano)

-ThetaleoftwogreatcrisesMicheleFratianni(IndianaUniversity,Bloomington-UnivPM,Ancona)

13.00–14.30 Lunch14.30–16.30 ParallelSessionsA–ParallelSessionA1–(roomT31)

PoliciesduringtheGreatCrisesChair:JocelynPixley-"Monetarylessons"ofBankers'Rampsin1929(Australia),(also1931inGBand2010,theEU)JocelynPixley(MacquarieUniversity,Sidney)-Fromacrisistoanother:resilienceandresistanceofthemoneyWIRinturbulenttimesGuillaumeVallet(UniversityofGrenoble–CREG,France)-HowDepressionsEnd:LessonsfromInterwarBritainTadGwiazdowski(UniversityofManchester),GeorgeChouliarakis-IncomeDistributionandtheGreatDepressionChristianBelabed(Johannes-Kepler-UniversityLinz)



–ParallelSessionA2–(roomT33)Microeconometrics1:Banks&FirmsperformanceduringthecrisesChair:ElisabettaMagnani-WhatHappenedtoProfitability?Shocks,ChallengesandPerspectivesforEuroAreaBanksDirkMevis(EuropeanStabilityMechanism),GongCheng-PuttingthePiecesTogether:AJigsawPuzzleof150YearsofCorporateProfitability,GrowthandCrisesChristianBabirat(UniversityofBamberg),SimoneAlfarano(UniversityJaumeI,Castellón),MishaelMilakovic(UniversityofBamberg)-SluggishReallocationandProductivitySlowdowninthePost-Recession:MissingtheCleansingEffectUmutKilinc(STATEC)-Firms'DebtandLabourAdjustmentsduringaTransition.TheExperienceofCentralandEasternEuropeanEconomiesElisabettaMagnani(SchoolofEconomics,UNSWBusinessSchool,Sydney)

–ParallelSessionA3–(roomA2)

BankingRegulationandSystemicRiskChair:PatrickVanHorn-BankNetworksandSystemicRisk:Micro-evidencebeforeandaftertheNationalBankingActsof1863-1864MarkPaddrik(OfficeofFinancialResearchU.S.Treasury),HaelimPark,JessieWang-Theregulatoryimpactonbanks’profitabilityfacinglargescalecrisesElisabethPaulet(ICNBusinessSchool)-Backtothefuture.BacktestingSystemicRiskMeasuresduringtheGreatDepressionandHistoricalBankRunChristopherKurz(BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,Washington,D.C.),ChristianBrownlees,BenChabot,EricGhysels



-Leverage,Liability,andCommercialBanks:EvidencefromtheBoomsBeforetheGreatDepressionandGreatRecessionPatrickVanHorn(SouthwesternUniversity),GaryRichardson,ChristofferKoch

–ParallelSessionA4–(roomT35)

MacroeconomicModels:realandfinancialdynamicsChair:AlbertoCardaci-SovereignRatings,MacroeconomicDynamics,andFiscalPolicy; interactions within a Stock Flow ConsistentFrameworkStefanosIoannou(UniversityofLeeds)- Stress testing the European Banking Union andalternativepolicyscenariosThore Kockerols (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne),GaëlGiraud- Inequality, Financialisation and Economic Crises: anAgent-BasedMacroModelAlberto Cardaci (Lombardy Advanced School of EconomicResearch,Milan),FrancescoSaraceno

–ParallelSessionA5–(roomT37)

EconomicCrisisandFinancialImbalancesChair:AlessandroNotarpietro-ADSGEmodelfortheItalianeconomyduringtheGreatDepressionandtheGreatRecessionEmiliaPezzolla(PrometeiaAssociazione,Bologna)-FinancialDevelopmentandEconomicGrowth:LongRunEquilibriumandTransitionalDynamicsSimone Marsiglio (University of Wollongong, Australia),AlbertoBucci-KissMeDeadly:FromFinnishGreatDepressiontoGreatRecessionMarkus Haavio (Bank of Finland), Adam Gulan, JuhaKilponen



-Everycloudhasa silver lining.ThesovereigncrisisandItalianpotentialoutputAlessandro Notarpietro (Banca d'Italia), Alberto Locarno,AndreaGerali,MassimilianoPisali

16.30–17.00 CoffeeBreak17:00–18:30 ParallelSessionsB–ParallelSessionB1–(roomT31)

AgricultureandCrisisintheInterwarPeriodChair:FrancescoChiapparino- AgriculturalModernization and RuralMigration in theGreatDepressionChristopher D. A. Boone (Cornell University), LaurenceWilse-Samson- The Impact of the Interwar Recession on the ItalianPrimarySector:ProfileofaresearchandfirstevidencesFrancesco Chiapparino (Università Politecnica delleMarche),GabrieleMorettini,FabrizioMuratore-DomesticMigrationsandSectorShiftsintheFascistItalyoftheThirtiesMarco Arlotti and Gabriele Morettini (UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)- French Agriculture, Employment and the Great Crisis:SomeObservationsFromtheComparisonwiththeItaliancaseLuca Andreoni (Istituto Comprensivo Augusto Scocchera,Ancona),LaurentHerment(CNRS-EHESS,CRHParis)



–ParallelSessionB2–(roomT33)RAstaNEWSspecialsessionontheGreatRecessionandmacro-financialimbalancesintheEuroAreaChair:PatrizioTirelli-InSearchoftheEurozoneGlobalFiscalStancePatrizioTirelli(UniversityofMilan-Bicocca),AliceAlbonico,AlessiaPaccagnini- Financialdeepeningandincomeinequalityintheeuro

areaDonatella Baiardi (Universityof Milan-Bicocca), ClaudioMorana-GIPSIintheEuroArea.AnEmpiricalDSGEModelPatrizioTirelli(UniversityofMilan-Bicocca),AliceAlbonico,AlessiaPaccagnini

–ParallelSessionB3–(roomT35)

MonetaryPolicyandInflationChair:GeorgePerendia- The Root Cause of TheCrises Or:The dark side ofmonetarypolicyLeef H. Dierks (Lübeck University of Applied Sciences),ThorstenPolleit- Assessing Potential Inflation Consequences ofQE afterFinancialCrisesSamuelReynard(SwissNationalBank)-Oops,didwedoitagain?RecessionaryDebtAcceleratorand effect of the Fed's inflation targeting on financialbubblein2008crisisGeorgePerendia(LondonMetropolitanUniversity)



Friday,December188:30–10:30 ParallelSessionsC–ParallelSessionC1–(roomT31)

AgentBasedModelsandSystemicFragilityChair:AndreaRoventini- When more flexibility yields more fragility. Themacroeconomics effects of alternative labour marketregimesMaria Enrica Virgillito (Sant’Anna School of AdvancedStudies), Giovanni Dosi, Marcelo C. Pereira, AndreaRoventini- The coordination game: how borrower strategiesgeneratebubblesRuggero Grilli (Università Politecnica delle Marche),GabrieleTedeschi,MauroGallegati- Expectation Formation, Fiscal Policies andMacroeconomic Performance when Agents areHeterogeneousandtheWorldisChangingAndreaRoventini (Sant’AnnaSchoolofAdvancedStudies),GiovanniDosi,MauroNapoletano,JosephE.Stiglitz,TaniaTreibich

–ParallelSessionC2–(roomT33)

MonetarySystemsChair:AlexanderJ.Field- Interwar Monetary Fragmentation and the GoldStandardRestored:TheCrisisof1929ComparedwiththeCrisisof2008ThomasMarmefelt(UniversityofSödertörn)-WalterBagehotandtheOpenMoneySupplyApproachtoMonetaryTheoryAntonellaPorcelluzzi(FreieUniversitaetBerlin)-TheTaylorRuleinthe1920sAlexanderJ.Field(SantaClaraUniversity)- The distortionary effect of monetary policy: creditexpansionvs.lump-sumtransfersinthelabRomainBaeriswyl(SwissNationalBank),CamilleCornand



–ParallelSessionC3–(roomT35)Crisis,LongRunDynamics,andEconomicDebateChair:LauraPennacchi-Growth,cyclesandsecularstagnation.Schumpeterandtheinterwardebates.MurielDalPontLegrand(UniversityNiceSophiaAntipolis);HaraldHagemann(UniversityofHohenheim,Stuttgart)-TheDebateon“SecularStagnation”intheThirtiesandToday:InvestmentandLabourQuestionsStillCentralLauraPennacchi(FondazioneBasso)-AcrossthecrisesofmoderncapitalismAngeloFusari(ISAE)-TeachingParadigmsforEconomicCrises:1929and2008Kristin A. Van Gaasbeck (California State University,Sacramento)

–ParallelSessionC4–(roomA1)

EmpiricalMacroeconomics1Chair:MarcoGallegati-SentimentsintheTimesofCrisisAntonio M. Conti (Banca d’Italia), Matteo Barigozzi,FabrizioVenditti-Globalfinancialcrisesandfinancialinstability:anhistoricalperspectiveusinglongwavepatternsMarco Gallegati (Università Politecnica delle Marche),DomenicoDelliGatti,EdoardoGaffeo,MauroGallegati-Long-RunDriversofCurrentAccountImbalancesintheEU:theroleoftradeopennessGiuseppe Caivano (Università degli Studi di Bari "AldoMoro”),NicolaConiglio-MoneyandVelocityDuringFinancialCrises:FromtheGreatDepressiontotheGreatRecessionJohnV.Duca (ResearchDepartmentFederalReserveBankofDallas),RichardG.Anderson,MichaelBordo.



10.30–11.00 CoffeeBreak11.00–13.00 ParallelSessionsD–ParallelSessionD1–(roomT31)

Technological Change and MacroeconomicImbalancesChair:EnricoSaltari- Innovation of technology, inequality, and economicstabilityKyubinYim(POSTECH),GabjinOh-EndogenizingtheICTsector:Amulti-sectorapproachEnrico Saltari (Sapienza, University of Rome), Clifford R.Wymer,DanielaFederici- Macroeconomic Regime Switching and TechnologicalChangeTommasoFerraresi(Irpet),WilliSemmler,AndreaRoventini

–ParallelSessionD2–(roomT33)

InternationalPoliticalEconomyChair:RuxandraPavelchievici-FinancialCrisesManagementby the IMF:WasExternalandPublicDebtunsustainable?HelaBenHassineKhalladi(UniversityofCarthage)-RethinkingandRestructuringCapitalism:aComparisonof Exit Strategies During the Great Depression and theGreatRecessionRuxandraPavelchievici(UniversityofNiceSophiaAntipolis)- Economic Crisis and Protectionism: Application of theEichengreen–IrwinHypothesisOlayinkaI.Kareem(UniversityofMarburg)



–ParallelSessionD3–(roomT35)FirmsandCrisisChair:CarlesManeraErbina- Managing and Escaping Crises: Cartels in Italy (1900-1945)Veronica Binda and Mario Perugini Binda (UniversitàBocconi,Milano)- The Resolution of a Systemically Important InsuranceCompanyduringtheGreatDepressionJonathanD.Rose(FederalReserveBoardofGovernors,DC)- Going Out Of The Great Recession? Contrast BetweenThe United States And Europe: Proposed Work FromEconomicHistory,1960-2014Carles Manera Erbina (Universitat de les Illes Balears),FerranNavinésBadal,JavierFranconettiManchado

–ParallelSessionD4–(roomA1)

EmpiricalMacroeconomics2Chair:MarcoCucculelli-BadNewsintheGreatDepression,theGreatRecession,andOtherUSRecessions:aComparativeStudyDonghoon Yoo (University of Lausanne), Jean-PaulL’Huillier- Learning and adaptation to crises as rare events. TheroleofthefinancialstructureMarcoCucculelli,AntonioPalestrini (UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche),EnricoGuzzini-TheGreatModerationinhistoricalperspective.Isitthatgreat?AnaGomez-Loscos (Bankof Spain),MariaDoloresGadea,GabrielPerez-Quiros



13.00–14.00 Lunch14:00–16:00 PlenarySessionII(RoomA)

Chair:AlbertoRusso(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)-LargeScaleCrisesandFailuresofStructuralAdjustment;1929-33and2008BruceC.Greenwald(ColumbiaUniversity,NewYork)–videoconference-Agriculturalcrisesasakeyexplanationforgeneraleconomiccrisesinthelongrun.FromKeynestoLabrousseandBoisguilbertorfrom1929backto1789and1680GérardBéaur(EHESS,Paris)



16.30–18.00 Documentary“AndtheShipSailson”,withRudyGnutti(movie-director)atMovielandGoldonimovietheaterViaMontebello,91,60122,Ancona

Thedocumentaryexplorestheimpactoftechnologicalinnovationsoneconomiesandsocieties.ThemaincastofthedocumentaryareJoseMujica,Z.Bauman,A.Atkinson,S.Latouche,M.Gallegati,M.Mazzucato,E.Brynjolfsson,D.Raventos…

“And the Ship Sails On is an informative, enlightening and persuasive movie, it pushes thinking and urges action." (Z. Bauman)



20:00 SocialDinner atRistoranteilGiardino

ViaFabioFilzi2/c-60123Ancona http://ristorantegiardinoancona.it/ItineraryfromtheUniversity:

Itineraryfromthemovietheater:



Saturday,December199:00–11:00 ParallelSessionsE–ParallelSessionE1–(roomA1)

MacroFinancialMarketsChair:PatrickLeoni- Monetary policy in the US: A Markov SwitchingapproachSinéadAshe(NationalUniversityofIreland)-MarketCrashesandInvestors'Sentiments:ATheoreticalandEmpiricalRelationshipPatrickLeoni(KedgeBusinessSchool)-FinancialCrises&DebtRigiditiesPascalPaul(UniversityofOxford)- Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section ofAssetReturnsFrancesco Bianchi (Cornell University, Duke University,CEPRandNBER)

–ParallelSessionE2–(roomA2)

Microeconometrics 2: Banks & Firms PerformanceduringthecrisesChair:RomanosPriftis-Bankingcrises,R&DinvestmentsandslowrecoveriesOanaPeia(ESSECBusinessSchool)- Innovation Dynamics during Economic Downturns: theinterrelated effects of inventors' mobility and firms'technologicalcompetencesoninnovationoutputMassimo Riccaboni (Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca)AntonioDellaMalva,DanielaSilvestri-Businesscycleonindustry-leveldataRomanosPriftis(EuropeanCommission),KirillShakhnov- An Extreme Value Analysis of the Last Century CrisesAcrossIndustriesintheU.S.EconomyMassimoRiccaboni (Institute forAdvancedStudiesLucca),MarcoBee,LucaTrapin



–ParallelSessionE3–(roomT31)EmpiricalMacroeconomics3Chair:AntoineParent- Financial Markets and the US Business Cycle: AnEmpiricalAppraisalTommaso Ferraresi (Irpet), Andrea Roventini, MauroNapoletano-ExcessivedebtandcontagionintheEurozonecrisisEleonoraCutrini(UniversityofMacerata),GiorgioGaleazzi- Liquidity Trap and Zero Lower Bound: a comparativeanalysisbetween1929and2008Antoine Parent (Sciences Po Lyon), Giovanni Caggiano,EfremCastelnuovo,OlivierDamette,GiovanniPellegrino- Financial cycles and comovements between realeconomy, finance and assets prices dynamics in large-scalecrisesMaria Teresa Punzi (Vienna University of Economics andBusiness)

–ParallelSessionE4–(roomT33)

EconomicCrises:NationalCasesChair:ZbigniewPolański- Poland and the Crises of 1929 and 2008: EconomicPoliciesandStructuralIssuesZbigniew Polański (National Bank of Poland andWarsawSchoolofEconomics)- Technical change, sectoral dislocation and barriers tolabormobility:2008-GreatCrisisinItalyandUSAndreaGentili(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche),MarcoArlotti, Fabiano Compagnucci, Fabrizio Muratore, EnzoValentini,MauroGallegati- Structural change, regional patterns and 2008 GreatCrisis:theItaliancaseFabiano Compagnucci (Università Politecnica delleMarche),MarcoArlotti,AndreaGentili,FabrizioMuratore,EnzoValentini,MauroGallegati- Financial Crisis and Political Extremism: Evidence fromHungaryGyozoGyongyosi(CentralEuropeanUniversity)



–ParallelSessionE5–(roomT35)EconomicCrises,aLongTermViewChair:JordiCatalan- Large-scale Crises in Southern Europe: lessons fromindustrialproductionJordiCatalan(UniversitatdeBarcelona)-1929and2008:TwoCrashes,OneCauseBernardBeaudreau(UniversitéLaval,Québec)-Large-scaleeconomiccrises:ishegemonythecure?MariaGavris(LeedsUniversityBusinessSchool)-TheGreatRecessionVersusTheGreatDepressionintheU.SJohnV.Duca (ResearchDepartmentFederalReserveBankofDallas)

11:00–11:30 CoffeeBreak11:30-13.30 PlenarySessionIII(RoomA)

Chair:LucaPapi(UniversitàPolitecnicadelleMarche)-Somegeneralreflectionsoncomparing1929and2008HaroldJames(PrincetonUniversity)-Debtdeflation,financialmarket,andregimechange-EvidencefromEuropeWilliSemmler(NewSchoolUniversity,NewYork)

-FinalRemarks-videoJosephStiglitz,(ColumbiaUniversity,NewYork)

13.30 Lunch



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