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Presentation by:Gavin Maguire

Asia Commodities Editor in Charge ,Thomson Reuters

Globoil India 2015, September 30, 2015

Mumbai

GLOBAL OILSEEDS OUTLOOK

Opportunities & Threats on the Horizon

Presentation by:

Gavin Maguire

Asia Commodities Editor in ChargeReutersSeptember 30, 2015Mumbai

The Big Picture:Global oilseed output slips, but stocks still at record

World Oilseed Balance Sheet:Super-sized soybean surplus

Asia Oilseed Balance Sheet:Soybean imports set for new record

China Oilseed Balance Sheet:Soybean usage share at new record

Brazil – China Trade RouteGetting more efficient every year

China Soybean Imports From BrazilSet new record in 2015

China’s Price Perspective:Imported soybeans 60% cheaper than domestic

Brazil’s Price Perspective:Weak currency pushes local prices higher

China Soy Crush Margins Turn NegativeBut hog margins hold near record highs

China Imports Cool as Stocks ClimbChina soy imports dip from record high

China Imports Enter Slow SeasonChina soybean imports tend to cool in Sep/Oct

Soybeans Secure Top Spot in OilseedsSoy Stocks +80 Mln T > Rapeseed Stocks

It’s A Relative Thing Will soybeans regain $80-100 discount vs canola?

Oilseed Price Performance in 2015

‘Soft’ Oilseed Prices Actually better than many other commodities

So How Low Can Soy Futures Go?It depends on lots of things, like the oil price…

And Commercial Hedgers(Will they go heavily short futures at harvest?)

• Massive soybean stocks may keep growing as Brazilian farmers get signal to plant more

• Top buyer China in slowdown mode as crush margins go negative and economic worries bite

• Soybean price action more a relative thing vs canola, but if oil goes below $40/barrel beans can go below $9/bushel…

• BUT: 1.1 billion pigs, 150 million cattle & 1.3 billion people need to eat. Every day.

CONCLUSION

Thank You!

Any Questions?

Contact details:gavin.maguire@thomsonreuters.comTel: +65 9670 5200

BRIEF INDIA OILSEED OUTLOOK FOLLOWS:

India Oilseed Balance:Cottonseed use big; stocks small

India Veg Oil BalancePalm oil import bill looking expensive?

India Oilseed Meals:Soymeal demand accelerates, overtakes cottonseed

Meal Exports Have Room to GrowSoymeal, rapemeal exports have potential

India Meal Prices:Long-term uptrend in place on rising demand

Meal Price Performance in 2015 Cottonseed meal outperforms

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