The Challenges Facing the Former Transition Economies: Are They in a Middle Income Trap and Does the Post-2015 Development Agenda Offer a Solution

Robert C. ShelburneUN Economic Commission for Europe

Conference on The Middle-Income Countries Perspective on Sustainable Development

in the CIS, Eastern and Southern EuropeMinsk, Belarus

May 16-17

United NationsEconomic Commission

For Europe

Income Groups in the Pan-European Region

Growth Over the Next 10 Years by Income Level, 1970-2010

EiT

Standard Deviation of Growth by Income Level

Growth Collapses and Explosions by Income Level

Probability of a Growth Collapse or Explosion by Income Level

Average 10-Year Growth of Middle Income Countries by Year, 1970-2000

Probability of a Growth Collapse or Explosion by Year

Per Capita Income of USSR/FSU Relative to World Average

Per Capita Income of EECCA and SEE Relative to the World and Eurozone

Over the long-term there has been no convergence in the per capita income of FSU (USSR) with the USA or Western

Europe

Convergence of Per Capita Incomes Over the Last Decade

Investment in the CIS and Central and Southeast Europe Relative to All Emerging and Developing Countries

Saving and Investment as a Percentage of GDP for the CIS

Saving and Investment as a Percentage of GDP for Central and Southeast Europe

Russia’s coming pension crisis

IMF staff projections