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Transcript of Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results - indocement.co.id Release/2016/03...98.8 ... Conference Call...
![Page 1: Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results - indocement.co.id Release/2016/03...98.8 ... Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 4 70.0 2013 2014 2015 Do me stic con u ption (LHS)](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031512/5cc7e87888c993103f8c8760/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results 29 March 2016
Christian Kartawijaya, CEO Tju Lie Sukanto, CFO
Disclaimer: Information presented here is not intended for further publication
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A changing industry is ahead of us
49 29 62 29 68 34
79
91 102
-10
10
30 20%
50
70 60%
90
110
2015E 2016E 2017E
Java Outside Java Total
72.1 78.1 84.8
6.5 12.7 18.3
0%
40%
80%
100%
2015E 2016E 2017E
Incumbents New Entrants
Most capacity will be added on Java in the near future About 50% of the capacity growth comes from incumbents Incumbents still dominate the market with the 3 biggest players holding well above
80% market share in 2015
Source: Company estimation Source: Company estimation
Production capacity by type of market player (in million tons)
Production capacity by geography (in million tons)
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 2
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47.1 47.5 47.5 47.5 46.1 44.9 44.9 44.9 48.7 50.9 54.1
60.2 64.2
72.2 78.0
90.5
103.1
116.1 113.3
122.4 126.0 131.5
6.0 6.0 6.0 133.5
Export 26.0 27.2 27.7 30.2 31.5 31.9 34.2
38.1 38.4 40.8
48.0 55.0 58.0
64.1 59.9 61.0
68.5 75.4
82.9 87.9
93.2
117.7 111.0
104.7 98.8
12.5 4.7 1.7 9.2 4.3 1.3 7.0 11.4 0.9 6.2 17.7 16.6 7.8 4.3 -3.0 5.0 7.0 10.0 10.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Domestic Supply Domestic Demand Growth Source: ASI and internal estimation
Demand/Supply Outlook: Oversupply Market
Consumption per capita = 248kg Comparison:
Malaysia: 639 kg Thailand: 564 kg Vietnam: 502 kg
Consumption per capita = 413kg
CAGR 2001-2015: 6.3% CAGR 2016-2025: 7.0%
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 3
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Yearly Volume & % Growth of Cement Consumption in Indonesia of 15 years
Source: Indonesian Cement Association, BPS Statistic
27.2 27.5 30.2 31.5 32.1
34.2 38.1 39.1 40.8
48.0
54.9 58.0
60.0 60.4
4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 5.6% 5.4% 6.3% 6.1%
4.6%
6.1% 6.5% 6.8% 5.7%
5.1% 4.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cement growth % (RHS)
2012
vs GDP movement year by year
In million tons
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 4
70.0
2013 2014 2015 GDP growth % (RHS) Domestic consumption (LHS)
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Market Development per Region Jan-Dec 2015
Jan-Dec (in Tons) 2015-12 2014-12 2014 Growth INTP SMGR SMCB INTP SMGR 2015 SMCB
Regions
Adjusted ASI figures by taking into account non ASI members and imported sales volume in 2014 and 2015
Consumption growth in 2015 based on ASI data is +1.8% The above table is Indocement’s internal estimate only
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 5
Jakarta 5,580,056 6,158,968 -578,912 -9.4% 41.1% 19.0% 25.1% 38.4% 23.7% 25.5% Banten 3,311,873 3,875,660 -563,787 -14.5% 45.6% 28.5% 15.4% 38.0% 29.8% 15.4% West Java 8,930,403 9,522,224 -591,821 -6.2% 51.6% 23.1% 16.4% 54.1% 22.5% 16.2% Central Java 7,248,177 6,972,325 275,851 4.0% 36.9% 41.5% 18.2% 40.5% 39.9% 18.6% Yogyakarta 940,400 998,578 -58,179 -5.8% 20.9% 37.1% 40.7% 25.0% 40.0% 35.0% East Jawa 8,101,486 8,556,069 -454,583 -5.3% 13.0% 69.3% 11.9% 12.5% 66.5% 9.7% Java 34,112,394 36,083,824 -1,971,430 -5.5% 36.2% 38.2% 17.7% 36.4% 37.8% 17.2%
Sumatera 13,071,456 12,805,934 265,522 2.1% 10.6% 43.6% 14.7% 13.8% 41.9% 14.3% Kalimantan 4,087,428 4,717,265 -629,837 -13.4% 27.2% 52.5% 9.7% 28.6% 48.3% 10.7% Sulawesi 4,879,593 4,527,959 351,634 7.8% 11.2% 62.1% 1.3% 13.3% 63.1% 0.9% Nusa Tenggara 3,503,499 3,507,448 -3,949 -0.1% 33.0% 37.0% 5.7% 31.7% 37.0% 5.2% East Indonesia 1,357,647 1,274,375 83,273 6.5% 18.6% 56.0% 1.2% 20.9% 56.8% 0.7%
Outside Java 26,899,624 26,832,980 66,644 0.2% 16.5% 48.1% 9.6% 19.0% 46.7% 9.6% Indonesia 61,012,018 62,916,804 -1,904,786 -3.0% 27.5% 42.6% 14.2% 29.0% 41.6% 13.9%
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Financial Result
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 6
Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income January to January to
December 31, 2015 December 31, 2014 in IDR mio in IDR mio
(Restated)
Variance in IDR mio in %
Net Revenues Cost of Revenues
17,798,055 -9,888,919
19,996,264 -10,890,037
(2,198,209) 1,001,118
-11.0% -9.2%
Gross Profit % of Net Revenues
Operating Expenses Other Operating Income
7,909,136 44.4%
-2,879,720
27,514
9,106,227 45.5%
-3,226,452
121,094
(1,197,091)
346,732 (93,580)
-13.1% -10.7% -77.3%
Operating Income % of Net Revenues
EBITDA % of Net Revenues
Finance Income Equity in net earnings of associated companies - net
5,056,930 28.4%
6,010,646 33.8%
562,856
25,325
6,000,869 30.0%
6,879,092 34.4%
790,122
24,487
(943,939)
(868,446)
(227,266)
838
-15.7% -12.6%
-28.8%
3.4%
Final Income Tax Income before Income Tax Income Tax Expense - Net
-535
5,644,576 -1,287,915
-842
6,814,636 -1,521,220
307
(1,170,060) 233,305
-36.5% -17.2% -15.3%
Income for the Period % of Net Revenues
4,356,661 24.5%
5,293,416 26.5%
(936,755) -17.7%
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Sound margin development in 2015
Despite a competitive environment Management delivered on its margin guidance by taking respective initiatives early on during the year: Operational Excellence program Fix cost reduction program Managing efficient kiln utilization
New market entrants leading to higher competition and pricing pressure but Indocement delivers superior margin development compared to peers
INTP Gross margin development INTP EBITDA margin development
34.8% 34.5% 34.0% 33.8% 35%
33%
31%
29%
27%
25%
39%
37%
Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec
2013 2014 2015
44.5% 45.0% 44.6% 44.4%
48%
47%
46%
45%
44%
43%
42%
41%
40% Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec
2013 2014 2015
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 7
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Favorable cost development helped to partly offset negative development from pricing
Fuel and power positively impacted by lower coal price and by running the most efficient kilns in 2015 but negatively impacted from weakening Rupiah and higher electricity price after significant increase starting May 2014
Future operation of new kiln P14 in 2016 will provide a significant potential on improving manufacturing cost
Fuel and Power composition in %
Fuel Power
Composition of Manufacturing cost as %
Trend 100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0% 2013 2014 2015
50/50
Fuel and power composition moved from 60/40 to 50/50 25.7 26.1
Raw Materials
9.9 10.4 Direct labor
44.1 43.4 Fuel and Power
20.3 20.2 Man. Overhead
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-Dec 2014 Jan-Dec 2015
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 8
in %
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Balance Sheet Consolidated Statement of Financial Position
Total Liabiliti
Equity attributable to Owners of the Partent Entity 23,865,950
- 24,577,013
- (711,063)
- -3%
Non-controlling interest
Total Equity 23,865,950 24,577,013 (711,063) -3%
Total Liabilites and Equity 27,638,360 28,884,635 (1,246,275) -4%
Liabilities and Equity
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 9
December 31, 2015 in IDR mio
December 31, 2014 in IDR mio (Restated)
Variance in IDR mio %
Assets
Current Assets 13,133,854 16,087,370 (2,953,516) -18%
Non-current Assets 14,504,506 12,797,265 1,707,241 13%
Total Assets 27,638,360 28,884,635 (1,246,275) -4%
Current Liabilities 2,687,743 3,260,559 (572,816) -18% Non-current Liabilites 1,084,667 1,047,063 37,604 4% es 3,772,410 4,307,622 (535,212) -12%
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1 brownfield project with capacity of 4.4 mio ton and investment cost of Rp5.5 – 6 trillion – first clinker by end of Q1/2016
1 unit an aero derivative gas turbine (ADGT) to supply 73 MW (including power supply from Steam Turbine to Citeureup factory with electricity cost cheaper than current PLN cost – GT & Steam turbine will run in full by Q3/2016
1 Cement and packing terminal in Pontianak to strengthen our bagged cement supply in West Kalimantan area – ready by Q2/2016
2 greenfield or brownfield project with each capacity of 2.5 mio ton one in Central Java (under appeal process for Environmental permit issues) and one in outside Java
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 10
+ 1.9 mt
Strategically well positioned to capitalize on further demand
Capacity Expansion & Future Investment to participate in Industry Growth
Million Tons + 5-8 mt + 4.4 mt
16.6 + 0.6 mt
17.1
+ 1.5 mt
18.6
20.6 25 30-33
2005 2007 2010 2014 2016 2020/2025
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Outlook for 2016
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 11
National market 2016 estimated to grow about 3%-5%
Strong concrete and bulk cement demand anticipated due to Government's infra projects
− Secured our concrete market by having good andesite quarry and sand supply from Ketapang and Belitung by signing exclusive LT supply contract with local partners
Several new market players expected to enter the market
Possible price pressure in weak quarters but stabilizing trend in stronger months
Commodity prices expected to stay at current level but further weakening of Rupiah anticipated
P14 will be ramped up quickly to capitalize on cost savings
Clinker exports will be done in low demand periods
Lower Capex spending due to finalization of our brownfield project P14
Strong balance sheet with no gearing provides sufficient headroom for leading the market well especially in our home market
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Challenges in Year 2016 onward How to win in a very tight Competitive Cement Market?
Cost Management
In Land: Traffic & Truck Availability
Train & Vessels: Double- handling cost; limited deep water Port
Strong Brand & Corporate Image
High Quality, Availability & Excellent Customer Services
Strong 40 year Distributorship network
• Infrastructure Development in Java & Outside Java
• Domino-effect for residential/ housing development after infrastructure is fully developed
• More sophisticated design of infrastructure & building (MRT, Dam, & 50-60 stories building) require high quality cement & concrete
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 12
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For Better Building Thank you
Indocement 40th Anniversary – Strong and Reliable in Developing the Nation
Conference Call Full Year 2015 Results Slide 13