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Concepts and Best Practices for the Risk Register in Primavera Risk Analysis

Matt CandelaSenior Technical Support Engineer

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The following is intended to outline our general product direction. It is intended for information purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any material, code, or functionality, and should not be relied upon in making purchasing decisions.

The development, release, and timing of any features or functionality described for Oracle’s products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.

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Agenda

• Demo of primary Risk Register functionality in Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA)

• Detailed look at functionality

• Other options and considerations

• Overview of risk functionality in P6 R8

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• Uncertainty is inherent to a task.– Example: digging a trench is scheduled for 10 days. It may only

take 8, or could take up to 12.

• Risks are events that may or may not occur and could affect a task.– Example: there is a 5% chance of flooding, which could delay

the digging of the trench by 5 to 8 days.

Risk vs. Uncertainty

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• Risk scoring– Thresholds, scoring criteria

• Create risks and assign to tasks– Qualitative, quantitative probabilities and impacts

– Risk scores generated

• Mitigation– Post-mitigated probabilities, impacts and risk scores

• Build impacted risk plans

Primary Risk Register Functionality

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Risk Scoring

• Scores are calculated using Probability and Impact Scoring Diagram

• Determined by intersection of the probability and impact

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Qualitative and Quantitative Risks

• Risks have both qualitative and quantitative values– Quantitative used in impacted risk plan

– Qualitative used to determine risk scores

• Qualitative risks: quantitative values from thresholds– For probability, low and high are averaged

– For impacts, low is min and high is max

• Quantitative risks: qualitative values determined by average of min, max, and most likely impacts

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Qualitative Risks - Example

• Risk HAZ is assigned a high schedule impact

• High schedule threshold is defined as 20 to 40 days in the risk scoring options

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Qualitative Risks - Example

• Risk is assigned to a task on Quantitative tab

• Schedule impact is min 20 days and max 40

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Quantitative Risks - Example

• Risk ACC is quantified and assigned to task 3

• Cost impact is min $50,000 and max $100,000, average is $75,000

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Quantitative Risks - Example

• $75,000 is within medium cost threshold

• Qualitative cost impact is medium

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Qualitative and Quantitative Risks Assigned to Multiple Tasks

• Qualitative: impacts spread across the tasks, per following Risk Register options:– “Spread the risk duration across multiple impacts”

– “Spread the risk costs across multiple impacts”

• Quantitative: impact averages will be summed to determine qualitative value

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Mitigation

• Mitigation Response of Avoid, Transfer, or Reduce allows for post-mitigation values and score.

• Title and Total Cost optional for simple mitigation plan

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Mitigation - Detailed Actions

• Qualitative tab > Mitigation tab > Use Detailed Actions

• Multiple mitigation actions with additional fields available

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Mitigation - Detailed Actions

• Total Cost calculated as sum of details actions costs– Excluding actions set to Rejected

• Post-mitigated values taken from an action– Rejected actions are not considered

– Action with latest finish date is used

– Tie goes to action with the lowest score

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• Mitigation Response set to Accept: any other response allows for mitigation

• Use Detailed Actions is selected: post-mitigated values taken from an action

• Risk is quantified: post-mitigated values must be set on Quantitative tab

Post-Mitigated Options Grayed Out

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Building an Impacted Plan

• (Task ID):B is the original task with no risk impact– Duration and duration uncertainty of the original task

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Building an Impacted Plan

• (Task ID):(Risk ID) is the risk event– Task existence for probability, duration uncertainty for schedule

impact, resource uncertainty (ZCRI) for cost impact

– Zero remaining duration

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Building an Impacted Plan

• (Task ID) is the summary for base task and risk event– Logic from original task

– Resource assignments from original task, unless “Cost Impacts include duration costs” is selected in Risk Register options

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Correlation

• Available on Risk View tab when a risk is assigned to multiple tasks

• Impact Ranges 90% correlation, Event Existence 100%

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Link in Series

• Available on Task View tab when a task has multiple risks assigned

• When unchecked, risks are in parallel

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Link in Series - Example 1

• Risks are linked in series

• Cumulative effect, both impact schedule

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Link in Series - Example 2

• Risks are not linked in series, occur in parallel

• Only longest duration affects schedule

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Assigning a Risk to a Summary Task

• Risk will impact sub task with latest finish date

• Potential for confusion over which task risk will impact and/or unexpected impact

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Assigning a Risk to a Hammock Task

• Crash may occur or impacts may be incorrect

• Ability to do so has been removed in version 8.7.0029

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Other Considerations and FAQs

• Opportunity on task near Data Date– Opportunities work by pulling back start date, impact may be

incorrect

• What do risk start and finish dates affect?– Proximity, exposure plan

• Is there a way to quickly assign a risk to a large number of tasks?– Filter on Risk View tab or use “Impacted Task ID(s)” column:

IDs separated by comma, no space

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• Web only

• Risk scoring– Thresholds, scoring criteria

• Create risks and assign to tasks– Qualitative probabilities and impacts

– Risk scores generated

• Mitigation– Post-mitigated probabilities, impacts and risk scores

Primary P6 R8 Risk Functionality

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Primary P6 R8 FunctionalityDefine risk scoring under “Administer…Enterprise Data”

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Primary P6 R8 FunctionalitySelect “Risks” on Projects View to create and assign risks

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Primary P6 R8 FunctionalityUse “Response Plans” tab for mitigation

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Importing a Project from P6 R8 into PRA

• Requires Primavera Risk Analysis 8.7.0029 or later

• Requires Web Services Utility with appropriate settings– See “Using Web Services to connect” in PRA help

• Run Connection Wizard in PRA

• Use “File…Primavera…Import Primavera P6 Project” from PRA, no option from P6 R8 Web

• Risks only included in single project import

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