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Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of...
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![Page 1: Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of Innovation Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022072005/56649cdb5503460f949a56ff/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to
Democracy
Joseph WongHalbert Professor of Innovation
Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political ScienceDirector, Asian Institute
University of Toronto
![Page 2: Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of Innovation Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022072005/56649cdb5503460f949a56ff/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The preferences of party cadres are much simpler than those of [military] officers. Like democratic politicians, they simply want to hold office.
-Barbara Geddes, 1999
![Page 3: Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of Innovation Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022072005/56649cdb5503460f949a56ff/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
[T]here is a strong wind of change blowing over the country …. the day when freedoms and human rights could be slighted in the name of economic growth and national security has ended. The day when repressive force and torture in secret chambers were tolerated is over.
-Roh Tae-Woo, 1988
![Page 4: Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of Innovation Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022072005/56649cdb5503460f949a56ff/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
[T]he times are changing, the environment is changing, the tide is also changing.
-Chiang Ching-Kuo, 1986
![Page 5: Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of Innovation Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022072005/56649cdb5503460f949a56ff/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Dominant parties can be incentivized to concede democratization from a position of exceptional strength and not only from a position of extreme weakness.
-Slater and Wong, 2013
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1. Antecedent Strengths
stability confidencevictory confidence
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Conceding democracy does not mean conceding defeat.
![Page 8: Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of Innovation Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022072005/56649cdb5503460f949a56ff/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
2. Ominous Signals
bittersweet spot
![Page 9: Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of Innovation Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022072005/56649cdb5503460f949a56ff/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of Innovation Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022072005/56649cdb5503460f949a56ff/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
3. Legitimation Strategies
conceding reform
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Taiwan
Developmental StateLimited Elections
Tangwai mobilizationGeopolitics
![Page 12: Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of Innovation Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022072005/56649cdb5503460f949a56ff/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The KMT ultimately chose to concede democracy because the party was in a position not of desperation, but of fairly strong confidence that democratic concession would ensure both the KMT’s electoral victory and the maintenance of stability.
-Slater and Wong, 2013
![Page 13: Conceding to Thrive: Taiwan’s Alternative Path to Democracy Joseph Wong Halbert Professor of Innovation Canada Research Chair & Professor, Political Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022072005/56649cdb5503460f949a56ff/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
KMT’s Victory Confidence
KMT’s Stability Confidence
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The Paradox of Conceding-to-Thrive
When a ruling party enjoys substantial incumbent capacity, this not only increases its ability to sustain authoritarian rule, but can lessen its imperative to do so.
-Slater and Wong, 2013
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(since 1986)
Enduring Dominant Parties: 35Competitive (Major): 18Competitive (Minor): 15Obsolete / Defunct: 15
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Candidate Case:China’ CCP
Apex of power?Bittersweet spot?Hurtled through?