Computing Laws Computer Industry Laws, Forces, and Heuristics… Or, Why computers are like they are...

Computing LawsComputing Laws

Computer Industry Laws, Forces, and Heuristics… Or,

Why computers are like they are and are likely to be.

Gordon Bell


Outline

Inventions, forces & laws – The two great inventions: Computer & IC– The force, quest and drive of cyberization– Resulting computer classes and

their supporting industries– The market support that drives it all

Technology to define new classes Some inevitable new computer classes


The two great inventions The computer (1946).

Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans– Computers are built from other computers in a

recursive fashion– Processors, memories, switching, and transduction

are the primitives The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated

Circuit (1957).– Computers are composed of a set of well-defined

hardware-software levels


Region/Region/IntranetIntranet

CampusCampusHome…Home… buildingsbuildings

BodyBody

WorldWorld

ContinentContinent

Everything cyberizable will be Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers!by a hierarchy of computers!

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

Cars… Cars… phys. nets phys. nets


Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information

Coupling to all information and information processors

Pure bits e.g. printed matter Bit tokens e.g. money State: places, things, and people State: physical networks


““

””

Vannevar Bush c1945

There will always be plenty of things to There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing compute ... With millions of people doing complicated things.complicated things.

memex … stores all his books, records, and memex … stores all his books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibilityspeed and flexibility

Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopediaMatchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia

Speech to textSpeech to text

Head mounted camera, dry photographyHead mounted camera, dry photography

”” ““

““ ““ ““

”” ””

””


Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year– Chip density transistors/die – Micro processor speeds

Exponential growth:– The past does not matter– 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change

PC costs decline faster than any other platform– Volume and learning curves– PCs are the building bricks of all future systems

Moore’s First Law

128KB128KB

128MB128MB

200020008KB8KB

1MB1MB

8MB8MB

1GB1GB

19701970 19801980 19901990

1M1M 16M16Mbits: 1Kbits: 1K 4K4K 16K16K 64K64K 256K256K 4M4M 64M64M 256M256M

1 chip memory size1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB)( 2 MB to 32 MB)


Computer components must all evolve at the same rate Amdahl’s law: one instruction per second

requires one byte of memory and one bit per second of I/O

Processor speed has evolved at 60% Storage evolves at 60% Wide Area Network speed evolves at 60% Local Area Network speed evolved 26-60% Grove’s Law: Plain Old Telephone Service

(POTS) thwarts speed, evolving at 14%!


Bell’s law of computer class formation to cover Cyberspace

New computer platforms emerge based on chip density evolution

Computer classes require new platforms, networks, and cyberization

New apps and content develop around each new class

Each class becomes a vertically disintegrated industry based on hardware and software standards


Bell’s Evolution Of Computer Classes

Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance

1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .621.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

MiniMini

????TimeTime

Mainframes (central)Mainframes (central)

PCs (personals)PCs (personals)Lo

g p

rice

Lo

g p

rice

WSsWSs


Platform, Interface, & Network Computer Class Enablers

Net

wo

rkIn

terf

ace

Pla

tfo

rm

“The Computer”Mainframe

tube, core, drum, tape, batch O/S

direct > batch

Mini & Timesharing

SSI-MSI, disk, timeshare

O/S

terminals via commands

POTS

PC/WS

micro, floppy, disk, bit-map

display, mouse, dist’d O/S

WIMP

LAN

Web browser,telecomputer, tv computer

PC, scalable servers,

Web, HTML

Internet


•

Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers

Super server: costs more than $100,000“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million

an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports

1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card

10$: wrist watch & wallet computers

100$: pocket/ palm computers

1,000$: portable computers

10,000$: personal computers (desktop)

100,000$: departmental computers (closet)

1,000,000$: site computers (glass house)

10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle)

100,000,000$: national centers


Computer Industry 1982

SolutionsSolutions

ApplicationsApplications

OSOS

ComputersComputers

ProcessorsProcessors

IBMIBMIBMIBM DECDECDECDEC HPHPHPHP NCRNCRNCRNCR


Consult

Apps

Apps

Dbases

OS

Network

Periph

Computers

Micros

Solutions

Andersen, EDS, KPMG, Lante, etc.Andersen, EDS, KPMG, Lante, etc.

Microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, etc.Microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, etc.

Microsoft, Apple, Sun, NovellMicrosoft, Apple, Sun, Novell

Comshare, D&B, PeopleSoft, SAPComshare, D&B, PeopleSoft, SAP

HP, Canon, Lexmark, SeagateHP, Canon, Lexmark, Seagate

Novell, Microsoft, BanyanNovell, Microsoft, Banyan

IBM, Compaq, DEC, Apple, many othersIBM, Compaq, DEC, Apple, many others

Intel, AMD, Motorola, othersIntel, AMD, Motorola, others

Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc.Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc.

EDS, FDC, BTG, API, DataFocus, HFSIEDS, FDC, BTG, API, DataFocus, HFSI

Computer Industry 1995


Economics-based laws determine the market Demand: doubles as price declines by 20% Learning curves: 10-15% cost decline with 2X units Bill’s Law for the economics of PC software Nathan’s Laws of Software -- the virtuous circle Metcalfe’s Law of the “value of a network”


Software Economics: Bill’s Law

Bill Joy’s law (Sun): don’t write software for <100,000 platforms @$10 million engineering expense, $1,000 price

Bill Gate’s law:don’t write software for <1,000,000 platforms @$10M engineering expense, $100 price

Examples: –UNIX versus Windows NT: $3,500 versus $500–Oracle versus SQL-Server: $100,000 versus $6,000–No spreadsheet or presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/...

Commoditization of base software and hardware

PricePriceFixed_costFixed_cost

Marginal _costMarginal _cost==UnitsUnits

++


Inno

vatio

n

The Virtuous Economic Cycle that drives the PC industry

Volum

e

Competition

Standards

Utility/value


Nathan’s Laws of software

1. Software is a gas. It expands to fill the container it is in

2. Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law

3. Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible

4. Software is only limited by human ambition and expectation

…GB: and our ability to cyberize I.e. encode


Metcalf’s LawNetwork Utility = Users2

How many connections can it make?– 1 user: no utility– 100,000 users: a few contacts– 1 million users: many on Net– 1 billion users: everyone on Net

That is why the Internet is so “hot”– Exponential benefit


Capac

. (sv

c

& re

spon

se)

The Virtuous Cycle that drives the BW quest

Applic

atio

n

inno

vatio

n

UserdemandInternet

(IP)ubiquityExcess capac.

-->>BW


Applications

Applications

Databases

OS

Switching

Computers

DSP

Processors

Microsoft, Delrina, many othersMicrosoft, Delrina, many others

Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUXMicrosoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUX

Ericsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, othersEricsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, others

Dialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, othersDialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, others

Ericsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, othersEricsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, others

Compaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many othersCompaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many others

Intel, AMD, Motorola, othersIntel, AMD, Motorola, others

Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, othersInformix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others

Future Telecom Industry


Hardware technology: processing, memory, networking, and new interfaces enable the new computers


1. We get more


Some changes by 2001 256 Mbit (32 Mbyte chip with computer) LSI Logic is “System on a chip” co.

– 64 M gates (>100 M transistors) today– Embeddable, low cost products (e.g. cameras,

instruments) with processing, memory, net, I/O Mbit bandwidth will be like ISDN today New networks will form to ferry us amongh the

“Islands of Cyberspace”– PC, phone, fax (unfortunately), pager, radio/cell phone,

home stuff, info appliances Cerf: “IP on everything.”


Tera

Giga

Mega

Kilo

11947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007

Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year

StorageStorageBackboneBackbone

MemoryMemoryProcessingProcessing

Telephone ServiceTelephone Service17% / year17% / year

????


National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size)

1

10

100

1000

10000

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Mem

ory

siz

e (M

byt

es/c

hip

) &

Mtr

ansi

sto

rs/

chip

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Mem(MBytes)

Micros Mtr/chip

Line width


National Storage Technology Roadmap (size, density, speed)

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1995 2000 2005

1

10

100

1000

10000

1000003.5" Cap. (By tes )

1.3" Cap. (By tes )

Bits /s q. in.

Data-rate (By tes /s )


Communication rate(t) in log10(Kbps)

200519951985197519652

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

POTS

WAN

LAN

SAN/backpanels

1 Mb

1 Gb

1 Kb

???

???

POTS @17%/year

ISDN


Microprocessor performance

100 G

10 G

Giga

100 M

10 M

Mega

Kilo1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Peak Peak Advertised Advertised

Performance Performance (PAP)(PAP)

Moore’sMoore’sLawLaw

Real AppliedReal AppliedPerformance Performance

(RAP) (RAP) 41% Growth41% Growth


Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year

1.E+21

1.E+18

1.E+15

1.E+12

1.E +9

1.E+61995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

20%= 20%= TeraopsTeraops

40%= 40%= PetaopsPetaops

60%= 60%= ExaopsExaops


New overtakes old


Processor performance… also for mainframes and supers

1000

100

10

1

0.1

0.011970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

RISC shiftRISC shift

CMOSCMOSmicroprocessormicroprocessor

BipolarBipolarprocessorsprocessors

VAXVAX

90009000


Things get cheaper


Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil!100000

10000

1000

100

$K 10

1

0.1

0.01 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

8 MB8 MB

1 MB1 MB

256 KB256 KB

64 KB64 KB

16 KB16 KB

Timeshared Timeshared systemssystems

Single-userSingle-usersystemssystems


VAX Planning Model 1975:I didn’t believe it The model was very good

– 1978 timeshared $250K VAXencost about $8K in 1997!

Costs declined > 20% – users get more memory than predicted

Single user systems didn’t come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs

VAX ran out of address bits!


Newer & cheaper always wins?… if it weren’t for the Law of Intertia

Old

NewNew

Old

NewNew


“The mainframe is dead!… and for sure this time!”

PRICE

MainframeMainframe

ServerServer

PCPC


The law of data and program inertia sustains platforms!

The investment in programs and processes to use them, and data exceed hardware costs

The cost to switch among platforms e.g. IBM mainframe, VMS, a VendorIX, or Windows/NT is determined by the data and programs

The goal of hardware suppliers is uniqueness to differentiate and lock-in

The goals of software/database suppliers are: to differentiate and lock-in and operate on as many platforms as possible in order to be not tied to a hardware vendor


Will the need for high volume, higher performance micros aka PCs continue?

Speech... but some of that power will be embedded in appliances

Video requires extra-ordinary power, especially to “understand”

Video servers! The explosion of stored everything e.g.

photos, voice, video, requires more memory and processing


It’s the near-term platforms, stupid!(multimedia is finally happening)

Text & 2D graphics -->> images, voice, & video The WEB: being anywhere and doing anything Disk sizes and cost c1998

– $50-100 / GB– 4 GB standard; CD-R; and 20-40 GB magneto-optic R/W

Document, picture, and video capture and compression– 10,000 to 250,000 pages / GB; 10,000 pictures / GB– 40-400 books / GB or $0.25-2.50 / book– Plethora of Video & digital cameras everywhere!

Voice and video compression*– 250 hours / GB voice– Stamp size-VHS: 12-50 hours / GB; DVD / HDTV: 0.5 hr / GB

Audio: Surround sound that is part of V-places Ubiquitous access: NetPC, WebTV, web & videophones

*Because there’s limited bandwidth!


What if could or when can we store everything we’ve: read/written, heard, and seen?


““

””

Vannevar Bush c1945

There will always be plenty of things to There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing compute ... With millions of people doing complicated things.complicated things.

memex … stores all his books, records, and memex … stores all his books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibilityspeed and flexibility

Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopediaMatchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia

Speech to textSpeech to text

Head mounted camera, dry photographyHead mounted camera, dry photography

”” ““

““ ““ ““

”” ””

””


All those photos


10X in 40 years(6% per year)


Library Volume Growth10X in 150 years


Some bits at Library of Congress Scanned LC 1PB

assumes 6B pages 13M photos 13TB 4M maps 200TB 500K movies 500TB 3.5M recordings 2,000TB 5 Bpeople or 2 GB per person


Other bits per year

Cinema 5K 200TB Images (all) 52G 520PB Broadcast 1500st 200/10PB Recordings 100K 60TB Telephone 500Gmin 400PB videotape???


Estimate of 1998 storage ships http://www.lesk.com

Disks 25B 250PB Raid 13B 65PB Optical 0.5B 25PB Jukebox 5B 250PB Tape 10B 10,000PB -10EB Tape stack 2B 2000PB - 2EB


Static information storage sizes

Documents image compressed #/GBbusiness card 5 K 500 200K;2M page or fax 100 K 4K 10K;250Ksnapshot 3 M 100 K 10,000350 page book 25 M 2 M 40;500

4 drawer file 20Kp 100M 10M 10;100


Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen

Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G

speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T

video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 Tvideo 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T

video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P


Some future computers and networks


Some predictable computers, networks, & industries

Something NON-predictable System-on-a-chip industry, including WINS (Wireless

Integrated Network of Sensors) Digital still and video cameras Dis-integrated telephony (gateways, IP dialing) The “nc” (NC for LANs, WebTV, WebPhone) Videophones become ubiquitous Scalable Network And Platforms Telework & Home Area Nets: homes, SoHos Body Area Nets: “on body”, “Guardian Angel”


2001 and the web will be about as it is today…NOT

Bet: At least some appliance will be available and selling at the rate of 2M units per year averaged over the last quarter of 2000 will have been introduced that no one has predicted at no 1997 conference about the future of the Internet, excluding cameras, television, and telephones that access the web.


Larry Ellison: NCs will outsell PCs 9:1 by 2000.

NCs include those embedded in TV sets, phones, and used as PC alternatives.

Bet: While the combined set of computers connected to the web (e.g. instruments, cameras, tv sets, appliances, printers, phones) may be greater than pure PCs, the number of person-driven access devices that are NOT PCs will be less than 1:1 by the end of 2000.


SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms

Standard (I.e. commodity) hardware SAN (System Area Network)

alternatives Common operating system for

platform, reducing vendor and customer costs

Cluster technology


Scaling dimensions include:

reliability… including always up number of nodes

– most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO backplane

– highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a single node

location within a region or continent time-scale I.e. machine generations


SNAP Systems circa 2000Local & global data commworld

ATM & Ethernet:PC, workstation,

& servers

Wide-area global

ATM network

Legacymainframe &

minicomputerservers & terminals

Centralized& departmental

servers built fromPCs

scalable computers built from PCs + CAN

TC=TV+PChome ...

(CATV or ATM or satellite)

???

Portables

A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment

Person servers (PCs)

MobileNets

Telecomputersaka Internet

Terminals


Do any hardware systems vendors with proprietary microprocessors and O/Ss see the change?

Probably not. The web business is masking it!


Telework = work + telepresence “being there while being here”

The teleworkplace is just an office with limited– Communication, computer, and network support!– Team interactions for work! Until we understand in situ

collaboration, CSCW is a “rat hole”! – Serendipitous social interaction in hallway, office coffee

place, meeting room, etc.– Administrative support for helping, filing, sending, etc.

Telepresentations and communication Computing environment … being always there,

administrivia, phones, information (especially paper) management

SOHOs & COMOHOs is a high growth market


Teleworking CW 9/1/97

15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk 50% in U.S.; 22% have policies on screening,

worker expectations, IP etc. protection, liability Are telecommuters more productive?

– 30% yes– 50% same– 4% no– 16% don’t know

Are telecommuters more accessible?– 13% yes– 40% same– 40% more– 7% don’t know


Steve ManninCyberspace


CMU wearable computers


MedtronicsImplanted

Cardioplastic


The growth of the computer industry(Gordon’s swag 12/97)

Machine class 1992 1995 1998 2001 Handheld/mobile > > >> PC (portables) > > > > PC (desktop) = > = = Telecomputer - - > >> Network Computer - - > >> TC (TV Computer) na na >> >> Workstation = = < < VendorIX server > >> = < Mainframe < < < << Super = < < << Scalable PCs = > >> >> = 0-10%, >10-20%, >> 20-30%; < -10%

Computing Laws Computer Industry Laws, Forces, and Heuristics… Or, Why computers are like they are...

Documents

Transcript of Computing Laws Computer Industry Laws, Forces, and Heuristics… Or, Why computers are like they are...