Computational Toxicology
description
Transcript of Computational Toxicology
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Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Computational Toxicologywww.epa.gov/ncct
Richard Judson
Computational Toxicology
UNC, November 2012
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author[s] and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
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Big Ideas
• Understand chemical toxicity at a molecular level• Understand using as few animal as possible• Build predictive models• Screening and prioritization• Assess many chemicals – deal with the data gaps
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Problem Statement
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Too many chemicals to test with standard animal-based methods
–Cost, time, animal welfare– Exposure is as important as hazard
Need for better mechanistic data - Determine human relevance
- What is the relevant Mode of Action (MOA) or Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP)?
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Computational Toxicology
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Benefits• Less expensive• More chemicals screened • Fewer animals• Solution oriented• Innovative• Multi-disciplinary• Collaborative• Catalytic• Transparent
Cancer
ReproTox
DevTox
NeuroTox
PulmonaryTox
ImmunoTox
in vitro testing
Bioinformatics/Machine Learning
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Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Computational Toxicology
Chemical Universe>100,000
Chemicals with likely exposure potentialMixtures
HTS Chemical Library
Chemicals w/o HTS or structural
similarity
Active chemicals and structural neighbors
AOP / MOA Targeted High-throughput testing
High, Medium, Low priority bins
Inactive chemicals and structural neighbors
Structural neighbors to HTS library
Very Low priority bin
Detailed Exposure and Toxicokinetics Evaluation
Initial Exposure Evaluation:
Use Categories
Initial Objective:Risk-basedPrioritization
Structure Similarity Modeling
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Hazard-based Approach• Identify molecular targets or biological pathways linked to toxicity
–MOA / AOP –Chemicals perturbing these can lead to adverse events
• Develop assays for these targets or pathways–Assays probe “Molecular Initiating Events” or “Key Events” [MIE / KE]
• Develop predictive models: in vitro → in vivo– “Toxicity Signature”–Extend to inform biomarkers or bioindicators for key events
• Use signatures:–Prioritize chemicals for targeted testing (“Too Many Chemicals” problem)–Suggest / distinguish possible AOP / MOA for chemicals
AOP / MOA Targeted High-throughput testing
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Toxicity Pathways
Receptors / Enzymes / etc.Direct Molecular Interaction
Pathway Regulation / Genomics
Cellular Processes
Tissue / Organ / Organism Tox Endpoint
Chemical
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AOP / MOA Development• International workgroups developing frameworks and models
–OECD – AOP–WHO – MOA
• Key Concepts–Molecular Initiating Events or Key Events – measureable in vitro–Causal evidence for downstream effects –AOP includes effects up to the population level
8Ankley et al. 2010
AOP / MOA Targeted HTS Data
AOP / MOA Targeted High-throughput testing
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Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Computational Toxicology
Knudsen and Kleinstreuer. Birth Def Res C. 2012
AOP / MOA Targeted HTS DataProposed AOP: Embryonic Vascular Disruption
AOP / MOA Targeted High-throughput testing
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ToxCast
• Combine High-throughput screening with computer models
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Key Research and ToolsToxicity Forecaster (ToxCast)• 500 fast, automated chemical screens (in vitro)• Builds statistical and computer models to forecast potential chemical toxicity
• Phase 1: Screened over 300 well characterized chemicals
• Phase 2: 700 more chemicals representing broad structures
• Multi-year, multi million dollar effort• Tox21 collaboration utilizes ToxCast
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Tox21 qHTS 10K Library
NCGC–Drugs
–Drug-like compounds
–Active pharmaceutical ingredients
EPA
• Pesticides actives and inerts
• Industrial chemicals
• Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program
• OECD Molecular Screening Working Group
• FDA Drug Induced Liver Injury Project
• Failed Drugs
NTP
• NTP-studied compounds
• NTP nominations and related compounds
• NICEATM/ICCVAM validation reference compounds for regulatory tests
• External collaborators (e.g., Silent Spring Institute, U.S. Army Public Health Command)
• Formulated mixtures
AOP / MOA Targeted HTS Data
AOP / MOA Targeted High-throughput testing
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Human Relevance/ Cost/Complexity
Throughput/ Simplicity
High-Throughput Screening Assays
10s-100s/yr
10s-100s/day
1000s/day
10,000s-100,000s/day
LTS HTSMTS uHTS
batch testing of chemicals for pharmacological/toxicological endpoints using automated liquid handling, detectors, and data acquisition
Gene-expression
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High Throughput Screening 101
96-, 384-, 1536 Well Plates
Assay Target Biology (e.g., Estrogen Receptor)
HTS Robotic Platform
Pathway
Chemical Exposure
Cell Population
HTS: High Throughput Screening
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Biochemical Assays
• Protein super-families– GPCR– Kinase– Phosphatase– Protease– Ion channel– Nuclear receptor– Other enzyme– CYP P450 inhibition
• Various formats:– Radioligand receptor binding– Fluorescent receptor binding– Fluorescent enzyme substrate-
intensity quench– Fluorescent enzyme substrate-
mobility shift• Initial screening:
– 25 mM in duplicate– 10 mM in duplicate (CYPs)
• Normalize data to assay window– % of control activity (central
reference – scalar reference)
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What do biochemical assays measure?
• Mainly direct effects of chemical on target protein– Enzyme activity– Ligand binding
• False positives:– Fluorescent compounds—fluorescing and quenching– Reactive compounds/covalent modification of target– Physical effects—colloid aggregation of target– Operational
• False negatives:– Solubility– Inappropriate assay conditions– Operational– Target protein not physiological– Lack of biotransformation
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Biochemical Concentration-Response Testing
• Retest actives:– Median absolute deviation (MAD)
median Ιx-xmedΙ two MADs or 30% activity
– 8 conc/3-fold serial dilutions• 50 mM high conc• 25 mM high conc for CYPs
• Normalize to assay window• Fit % Activity data to 3- or 4-
parameter Hill function– Sometimes had to fix top or bottom
of curve– Did not extrapolate beyond testing
range– Manual or automated removal of
obvious outliers
NovaScreen replicas
50
60
70
80
90
100
5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% CUTOFF (solid)or MAD1 to MAD11 (dashed)
% s
ame
call
(320
6 ca
lls a
cros
s re
plic
as)
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Example Curve Fits
hCYP 2C9 hERarAdrRa2B
hLynA Activator
hM1hKATPase
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Real Time Cell Growth Kinetics
• Cytotoxicity with potential mechanistic interpretation
• Human A549 lung carcinoma cell line– ACEA experience with line– Reference compound effects
• Concentration-response testing– 8 conc/3-fold serial dilutions– Duplicate wells
• Real-time measuremens during exposure (0-72 hr)
• IC50 and LELs calculated
electrode
electrode
electrode
electrodewithout cell
electrode attachedwith a cell
electrode attachedwith 2 cells
Z = Z0
baseline impedance
Z = Z cell 1
impedance increased
cell
cell
electrode
Z = Z cell 2
impedance doubly increased
cells
electrode with 2 strongly-attached cells
Z = Z cell 3
impedance further increased
Z
Z
Z
Z
electrode
electrode
electrode
electrodewithout cell
electrode attachedwith a cell
electrode attachedwith 2 cells
Z = Z0
baseline impedance
Z = Z cell 1
impedance increased
cell
cell
electrode
Z = Z cell 2
impedance doubly increased
cells
electrode with 2 strongly-attached cells
Z = Z cell 3
impedance further increased
ZZZZ
ZZZZZ
ZZZZZ
ZZZZZ
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Example Plots:
Data examples
Replicate Analysis:
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Multiplexed Transcription Factor Assays
• Modulation of TF activity in human hepatoma HepG2 cells• Multiplexed reporter gene assay
–cis 52 assays (response element driving reporter)– trans 29 assays (GAL4-NR_LBD driving reporter) “ligand detection”
• IC50 for cytotoxicity measured first in HepG2• High concentration either 100 mM or 1/3 calculated IC50 for
cytotoxicity• Seven concentrations, 3-fold serial dilutions, 24 hr exposure• Cells harvested, RNA isolated, processed for reporter gene
quantitation• LEL provided in data set
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Multiplexed Reporter Gene Assay
Library of RTUs
Cell Transfection
PCR amplification
Transcription
Reverse transcription
RNA Isolation
Labeling
Processing (Hpa I)
Separation and detection (capillary electrophoresis)
XRE 2 RTU B
XRE 2 RTU B
RE 1X
RTU ARE 1X
RTU AX
RTU A
{
XRE 2 RTU B
XRE 2 RTU B
RE 1X
RTU ARE 1X
RTU AX
RTU A
X
X
XX
X
XX
Hpa I
AB
- +
X
X
XXX
XXX
XXX
Multiplexed Reporter Gene TechnologyCis: AhR
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trans: ERa
cis: ERE
Bisphenol A HPTE
Corresponding cis and trans assays
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BioSeek: BioMAP® Technology Platform
Assays
Human primary cells Disease-like culture conditions
LPS
BF4T
SM3C
Profile Database Informatics
Biological responses to drugs and stored in the database
Specialized informatics tools are used to mine and analyze biological data
Primary Human Cell-Based Assay Platform for Human Pharmacology
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BioSeek Assays Tested
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High-Content Screening of Cellular Phenotypic Toxicity Parameters
• Technology: automated fluorescent microscopy• Objective: Determine effects of chemicals on toxicity biomarkers in a
cell culture of HepG2 and primary rat hepatocytes
Cell Cycle
CSK Integrity
DNA Damage
Oxidative Stress
Stress PathwayActivation
OrganelleFunctions
Panel 1 design*:• Multiple mechanisms of toxicity• Acute, early & chronic exposure• 384-well capacity• HepG2
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Cell Loss
Mitochondrial Membrane Potential
DNA Damage
Data Examples
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XME Gene Expression in Primary Human Hepatocytes
• Primary human hepatocytes from two donors used
• Cells exposed for 6, 24, and 48 hr; medium/chemical refreshed daily
• Concentrations tested: 40, 4, 0.4, 0.04, and 0.004 µM
• 16 Genes measured in multiplexed RNAse protection assay (qNPA)
• Genes targeted XME and transporters
HMGCS2Fatty acid metabolism
RXRPPARα
CYP2B6Xenobiotic, Steroid metabolism
RXRCARPB, Steroids, Xenobiotics(Reference Chemical: PB)
Fibrates, Xenobiotics(Reference Chemical: Fenofibric Acid)
CYP3A4Xenobiotic, Steroid metabolism
RXRPXRRIF, Bile Acids, Steroids, Xenobiotics(Reference Chemical: RIF)
CYP1A1/2Xenobiotic metabolism
AhR ARNTPAHs, Xenobiotics(Reference Chemical: 3-MC)
ABCB11 (BSEP)Bile acid metabolism and transport
RXRFXRBile Acids, Farnesoids(Reference Chemical: CDCA)
GAPDH CYP1A1
ABCB11 SULT2A1
HMGCS2
SLCO1B1 ACTIN
ABCB1 CYP1A2
GSTA2 CYP2B6
CYP2C9 UGT1A1 ABCG2
CYP2C19 CYP3A4
Target Gene CategoriesCYP450 (6)Transporter (4)Phase II Metabolism (3)Cholesterol Synthesis (1)Endogenous control (2)
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Data ExamplesCYP1A1-AhR CYP2B6-CARHMGCS2-PPARα
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NCGC Reporter Gene Assays
• Nuclear Receptors– GAL4 System (ligand detection assay)– 11 human receptors– 1 rat (PXR)– b-lactamase reporter gene assays except:– PXR assays are luciferase reporter gene assays
• p53 Reporter Gene assay– b-lactamase reporter gene assay
• Parental cell lines mostly HEK293 (also HeLa and DPX-2)
• 12-15 point concentration-response curves (single replicate)
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NCGC: Data Calculations
• Data normalized to reference compound effect
• Curves fit to 3- or 4-parameter Hill equation
• Artifacts removed where obvious fluorescence or cytotoxity detected
• Required at least 25% efficacy of control compound to calculate AC50
• AC50 values provided• Antagonist format assays
challenging due to effects of cytotoxicity
• LXR assay problematic—contaminated with GR reporter line?
ERa
PPARg
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Applications
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Published Predictive Toxicity Models Predictive models: endpoints
liver tumors: Judson et al. 2010, Env Hlth Persp 118: 485-492hepatocarcinogenesis: Shah et al. 2011, PLoS One 6(2): e14584 cancer: Kleinstreuer et al. 2012, submittedrat fertility: Martin et al. 2011, Biol Reprod 85: 327-339rat-rabbit prenatal devtox: Sipes et al. 2011, Toxicol Sci 124: 109-127zebrafish vs ToxRefDB: Sipes et al. 2011, Birth Defects Res C 93: 256-267
Predictive models: pathwaysendocrine disruption: Reif et al. 2010, Env Hlth Persp 118: 1714-1720microdosimetry: Wambaugh and Shah 2010, PLoS Comp Biol 6: e1000756mESC differentiation: Chandler et al. 2011, PLoS One 6(6): e18540HTP risk assessment: Judson et al. 2011, Chem Res Toxicol 24: 451-462angiogenesis: Kleinstreuer et al. 2011, Env Hlth Persp 119: 1596-1603
Continuing To Expand & Validate Prediction Models Generally moving towards more mechanistic/AOP-based models
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Predictive Model Development
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Univariate Analysis
DATABASES
ToxCastDBin vitro
ToxRefDBin vivo
ASSAY SELECTION
ASSAY AGGREGATION
ASSAY SET REDUCTION
MULTIVARIATE MODEL
p-value statistics
Condense by gene, gene family, or pathway
Reduce by statistics (e.g. correlation)
LDAModel Optimization
x
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Reproductive Rat Toxicity Model Features
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36 AssaysAcross 8 Features
Balanced AccuracyTraining: 77%
Test: 74%
+-
Martin et al 2011
Reproductive Rat Toxicity Model Features
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Example: Cancer SignaturesNon-genotoxic carcinogens
• Use insights from Hallmarks of Cancer –Hanahan and Weinberg 2000, 2011–Cancer is a multi-step progressive disease–Virtually all cancers display all hallmark processes
• We observe that most chemicals perturb multiple pathways
• Hypothesis:–A chemical that perturbs many pathways related to cancer hallmark
processes will be more likely to cause cancer in the lifetime of an animal than a chemical that perturbs few such pathways
–Chemicals can increase cancer risk through many different patterns of pathway perturbations
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Hallmarks of Cancer Hanahan and Weinberg (2000)
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PPARa
p53
CCL2 ICAM1
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Hallmarks of Cancer Hanahan and Weinberg (2011)
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IL-1aIL-8CXCL10
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Pathway Hits Raise Risk of Multiple Cancer Types
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Hallmark-relatedADME-relatedEndpoint
Level 2: PreneoplasticLevel 3: Neoplastic
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Understanding Success and Failure
• Why In vitro to in vivo can work:–Chemicals cause effects through direct molecular interactions that
we can measure with in vitro assays
• Why in vitro to in vivo does not always work:–Pharmacokinetics issues: biotransformation, clearance (FP, FN)–Assay coverage: don’t have all the right assays (FN)–Tissue issues: may need multi-cellular networks and physiological
signaling (FN)–Statistical power issues: need enough chemicals acting through a
given MOA to be able to build and test model (FN)–Homeostasis: A multi-cellular system may adapt to initial insult
(FP)– In vitro assays are not perfect! (FP, FN)– In vivo rodent data is not perfect! (FP, FN)
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SystemsModels
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Beyond in vitro to in vivo signatures
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Structure ClustersChemical Categories
In vitro Assays
Adverse Outcome
Pharmacokinetics
In Vitro-In Vivo Signatures
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Combining Chemical Structure and In Vitro Assays
• Structure clustering based on chemical fragments–FP3, FP4, MACCS, PADEL, PubChem (~2700 total)–Hierarchical clustering and then set variable cutoffs–For examples: ~12 chemicals / cluster
• Goals–Find clusters that are highly predictive of each assay (read-across)–Assay structure alerts: alternatives assessments–Assay QC
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Cluster Assay Endpoint
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Clusters 80% predictive of assay hit
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ER Assays
Estrogens
Conazoles
CYP Binding Assays
Alkyl Phenols
Surfactants
GPCR Binding Assays
Alachlor …
Captan …
Inflammation Assays
Surfactants
Chemical Set 2
Chemical Set 1
Assays
Data Set Incomplete
Azoles
Tetracycline …
EndosulfansSteroids
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Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Computational Toxicology
Adding PharmacokineticsReverse ToxicoKinetics (rTK)
Human Hepatocytes
(10 donor pool)
Add Chemical(1 and 10 mM)
Remove Aliquots at 15, 30, 60, 120 min
Analytical Chemistry
-5-4-3-2-10123
0 50 100 150
Ln C
onc
(uM
)
Time (min)
Nifedipine
1 uM initial
10 uM initial
Hepatic Clearance
HumanPlasma
(6 donor pool)
Add Chemical(1 and 10 mM)
Analytical Chemistry
Plasma Protein Binding
EquilibriumDialysis
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Combine experimental data with PK Model to estimate dose-to-concentration scaling
Collaboration with Thomas et al.., Hamner InstitutesPublications: Rotroff et al, ToxSci 2010, Wetmore et al, ToxSci 2012
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Etox
azole
Emam
ectin
Bupr
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Dibu
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thalat
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raclos
trobin
Parat
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Isoxa
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Pryri
thiob
ac-so
dium
Benta
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Prop
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MGK
Atraz
ine
Brom
acil
Feno
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rbFo
rchlor
fenur
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arathi
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TriclosanPyrithiobac-sodium
log
(mg/
kg/d
ay)
Rotroff, et al. Tox.Sci 2010 Wetmore et al Tox Sci 2012
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Range of in vitro AC50 values converted to human in vivo daily dose
Actual Exposure (est. max.)
margin
Combining in vitro activity and dosimetry
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Application: Endocrine Disruption
• Prioritization–Screening thousands of chemicals–Developing activity thresholds of concern
• Dose-relevance–Combining in vitro data with PK modeling–Refining activity thresholds of concern
• Investigating the broader range of phenotypes of concern–Use many available in vitro tests and computer models as
complement to EDSP animal tests
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Initial Prioritization Application: EDSP21
Use high-throughput in vitro assays and modeling tools to prioritize chemicals for EDSP Tier 1 screening assays
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ER / AR Focus: EDSP21• Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program
–FQPA, SDWA 1996 contain provisions for screening for chemicals and pesticides for possible endocrine effects
–Test pathways: estrogen, androgen, thyroid, steroidogenesis (EATS)–Universe of chemicals: 5000-6000
• Tier 1 screening battery (T1S): 11 in vitro & in vivo assays–Development and validation > 10 years– >$1 M per chemical–Current throughput < 100 chemicals / year
• EDSP21 goal: –Prioritize chemicals for T1S–Hypothesis: EATS (in vitro)+ more likely to be T1S+–Use many EATS in vitro assays–Combine with modeling, use, occurrence and exposure information
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Characterizing chemicals for estrogen signaling pathway activity
• Active vs. inactive• Potency and efficacy spectrum across assays• Agonist … Antagonist• Partial … full Agonist / Antagonist• ERa vs. ERb• Metabolically activated or deactivated• Cell type specificity• ER-mediated or not
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All Data is preliminary and unpublished
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Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Computational Toxicology
Pro-ligand
ERActive ligand
Cofactor
ER-regulated gene expression
Cell proliferation
Oxidative stress
pathways
Non-ER-mediatedcell proliferation
pathways
Non-ligand-mediatedactivation of ER activity
Attagene AttageneNCGC ACEA
Odyssey Thera
Odyssey Thera
Novascreen
Using multiple lines of evidence to test for ER activity
Odyssey Thera and Attagene assays have metabolic capacity
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Estrogen signaling pathway assays
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source_name_aid source condition organism tissue Cell Format Cell TypeACEA_T47D ACEA human breast Cell line T47DATG_ERa_TRANS Attagene human liver Cell line HepG2ATG_ERE_CIS Attagene human liver Cell line HepG2Tox21_ERa_BLA_Agonist Tox21 human kidney Cell line HEK293TTox21_ERa_BLA_Antagonist Tox21 human kidney Cell line HEK293TTox21_ERa_LUC_BG1_Agonist Tox21 human ovarian Cell line BG1Tox21_ERa_LUC_BG1_Antagonist Tox21 human ovarian Cell line BG1NVS_NR_bER Novascreen bovine uterus tissue extract NVS_NR_hER Novascreen human breast Cell line: cell extract NVS_NR_mERa Novascreen mouse uterus tissue extract OT_ER_ERaERa Odyssey Thera +/- S9 human kidney Cell line HEK293TOT_ER_ERaERb Odyssey Thera +/- S9 human kidney Cell line HEK293TOT_ER_ERbERb Odyssey Thera +/- S9 human kidney Cell line HEK293TOT_ERa_GFPERa_ERE Odyssey Thera +/- S9 human cervix Cell line HeLa
OT_ERa_ERE_LUC_AgonistOdyssey Thera human Cell line: bulk
transiently transfected
CHO-K1
OT_ERa_ERE_LUC_AntagonistOdyssey Thera human Cell line: bulk
transiently transfected
CHO-K1
OT_ERb_ERE_LUC_AntagonistOdyssey Thera human Cell line: bulk
transiently transfected
CHO-K1
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NCGC ER BG1-LUC vs. BLA Agonist Assays
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Metabolic Capacity: +/- S9 for metabolism
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Antagonist behavior in OT-PCA (ICI)
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ERb-ERb
ERa-ERa
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-S9+S9
Activation
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-S9+S9
ERα/ERβ
Deactivation
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White (-S9)Black (+S9)
Comparing Odyssey Theraassays across potent estrogens
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Initial Exposure Evaluation:
Use CategoriesMapping Chemicals toUse Categories
Category hierarchy
Chemical to ProductThen
Product to CategoryChemical To
Category
Many sources of information on chemical use, mapped to categories
Laundry detergent, industrial solvent, baby care
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Initial Exposure Evaluation:
Use CategoriesMapping Use Categoriesto Scenarios
Paint Food AdditivePesticide
Baby Adult
KitchenGarage
Multiple Category
Hierarchies
Map to Exposure Scenario Concepts
Map to Exposure Scenarios
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Detailed Exposure and Toxicokinetics EvaluationModel Detailed Exposure
and Toxicokinetics
• Exposure modeling is goal of ExpoCast program
• Toxicokinetics uses Reverse Toxicokinetics (RTK)
• Combining RTK and HTS potency scores yields first-order estimate of dose that yields no biological effect:– BPAD – Biological Pathway Altering Dose– Core idea of HTRA – High-throughput Risk Assessment
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Clustering 1763 chemicals by the media into which they partition most Could infer behavior of understudied chemicals from similar, well-known counterparts – “fate read-across
High Throughput Fate Predictions
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Detailed Exposure and Toxicokinetics Evaluation
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High-Throughput Risk Assessment (HTRA)
• Risk assessment approach– Estimate upper dose that is still protective– RfD, BMD are standard, animal-based quantities– Compare to estimated steady state exposure levels
• Contributions of high-throughput methods– Focus on molecular pathways whose perturbation can lead to adversity– Screen hundreds to thousands of chemicals in in vitro assays for those
targets– Estimate oral dose using H-T pharmacokinetic modeling
• Incorporate population variability and uncertainty
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Detailed Exposure and Toxicokinetics Evaluation
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What is High-Throughput Risk Assessment?
• Where does risk assessment come in?–Estimate upper dose that is still protective–RfD, BMD, POD
• Where does high-throughput come in?–Focus on molecular pathways and targets whose
perturbation can lead to adversity–Screen hundreds to thousands of chemicals in in vitro
assays for those targets–Get oral dose using H-T pharmacokinetic modeling
• Incorporate population variability and uncertainty
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Why do HTRA?
• Thousands of chemicals with no or little animal data
• Need starting points for setting health-protective exposure levels
• These starting points can be used to prioritize further testing
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HTRA Basic Outline
1. Define molecular pathways linked to adverse outcomes2. Measure activity in vitro in concentration-response (PD)3. Estimate external dose to internal concentration scaling (PK)4. Estimate dose at which pathway is perturbed in vivo5. Estimate population variability and uncertainty in PK and PD6. Estimate lower end of dose range for perturbation of pathway
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HTRA-BPAD Key Ideas• HTRA = High Throughput Risk Assessment• BPAD = Biological Pathway Altering Dose• BPAC = Biological Pathway Altering Concentration• Css = Concentration to Dose ratio from PK model• Key Ideas:
–Define biological pathways whose alteration can lead to adverse outcomes
• Pathway perturbation = MOA Key Event evidence–Develop in vitro assays that measure chemical activity in biological
pathways–Determine in vitro concentration required to alter pathway (BPAC)–Estimate oral dose required to reach BPAC (BPAD = BPAC/Css)– Incorporate variability and uncertainty
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Estimating the concentration-to-dose scaling
• Use Reverse Toxicokinetics approach (RTK)–Led by R. Thomas, Hamner Inst.
• Uses experimental data on – Intrinsic clearance in human hepatocytes–Human plasma protein binding– Integrate using one-compartment PBPK model
• Yields Css (concentration at steady state)–Units of mM/(mg/kg/day)
• Dose = Concentration / Css
• RTK (SimCyp) provides estimates of population variability• Need to add estimates of uncertainty
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Estimate BPAD
• BPAD = BPAC / Css
• Each are modeled as being log-normal• BPAD has a population distribution, so take a protective level as the lower 99% tail (BPAD99)
• Add in uncertainty and take the lower 95% bound on BPAD99 to give a more protective lower bound –BPADL99
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Adverse Effect
Toxicity Pathway
Key Events
MOA
HTS Assays
Intrinsic Clearance
Plasma Protein Binding
PopulationsPK Model
Biological Pathway Activating Concentration (BPAC)Probability Distribution
Dose-to-ConcentrationScaling Function (Css)Probability Distribution
Probability Distribution for Dose
that Activates Biological Pathway
BPAD
Pharmacodynamics Pharmacokinetics
R. Thomas et al. , Hamner Inst.
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Uncertainty and variability
• RTK modeling explicitly incorporates human population variability in PK (SimCyp)
• Other uncertainty and variability …–PK uncertainty due to model and data uncertainty–PD variability due to intrinsic variability in enzymes,
receptors, pathways –PD uncertainty due to details of assay performance, etc.
• Need to develop approach to move away from using defaults for HTRA–Follow similar path to what is being developed for
standard RA
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Conazoles and Liver Hypertrophy
• Conazoles are known to cause liver hypertrophy and other liver pathologies
• Believed to be due (at least in part) to interactions with the CAR/PXR pathway
• ToxCast has measured many relevant assays
• Calculate BPAD for 14 conazoles and compare with liver hypertrophy NEL/100
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Conazole / CAR/PXR results
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LEL, NEL
BPAD Range
Exposure estimate
“RfD”
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HTRA Summary1. Select Toxicity-related pathways2. Develop assays to probe them3. Estimate concentration at which pathway is “altered” (PD)4. Estimate concentration-to-dose scaling (PK)5. Estimate PK and PD uncertainty and variability6. Combine to get BPAD distribution and safe tail
• Many (better) variants can be developed for each step (1-6)• Use for analysis and prioritization of data poor chemicals
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Summary
• Goal is to do high-throughput risk-based screening
• Apply to thousands of chemicals• First-order estimates of:
– Hazard: based on adverse outcome pathways
– Exposure: far and near field routes– Toxicokinetics
• End product:– Prioritized list for more detailed testing– Catalog of potential AOPs that
chemicals can trigger
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Virtual Tissues
• Virtual Liver• Virtual embryo• Virtual Tissue Knowledgebase
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Virtual Tissues Systems Models of Toxicity Pathways
chemicals pathways networks cell states tissue function
Quantitative Dose-Response
Models
Next GenerationRisk assessments
Moving beyond empirical models, to multi-scale models of
complex biological systems.
Identify Key Targets and Pathways For Prioritization
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Virtual Liver• Cell-based computer model simulates chemical actions in virtual
liver to estimate how much chemical it takes to lead to health-related effects
• Selection of every day chemicals with known human health effects will be used to develop proof it can be used for chemical toxicity prediction
• Organize evidence about biological networks to clarify toxic effects of new chemicals (mechanism of action)
• Uses ToxCast™ and other chemical data to simulate how chemicals could cause liver disease and cancer in humans
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Virtual Embryo
• Goal: Will be used to accurately predict the potential for environmental chemicals to affect the embryo–Plans to use a selection of every day chemicals with known
health effects in animal tests to determine if it is possible to use a virtual embryo model to predict the potential developmental toxicity of chemicals
–Research uses fast, automated chemical screening data from ToxCast, ACToR & v-Liver to create simulations examining how chemicals could cause developmental problems
– Initially focuses on early eye, vascular and limb development–Conducts experiments using stem cells and zebrafish to
generate data
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Data and Databases
• ACToR• ToxRefDB• ToxCastDB• ExpoCastDB
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Too Many Chemicals Too Little Data (%)
EPA’s Need for Toxicity Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Acute Cancer GentoxDev Tox Repro Tox
1
10
100
1000
10000
IRIS TRI PesticidesInerts CCL 1 & 2 HPVMPV
Judson, et al EHP (2009)
9912
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ACToRAggregated Computational Toxicology Resource
Tabular Data,Links to Web Resources
Chemical ID, StructureChemical
Internet Searches
ACToR API
ToxRefDB
http://actor.epa.gov/
ToxMiner ExpoCastDB
In Vivo Study Data - OPP
ToxCast Data – NCCT, ORD, Collaborators(Currently Internal)
Exposure Data – NERL, NCCT(In Development)
ACToR Core
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ToxRefDB – Animal Study Level Data
• Extracted from OPP internal DB
• Relational phenotypic/toxicity database
• Provides in vivo anchor for ToxCast predictions
• Three study types• Chronic/Cancer rat and mouse (Martin, et al, EHP 2008)• Rat multigenerational Reproduction (Martin, et al, submitted)• Rat & Rabbit developmental (Knudsen, et al, internal review)
• Two types of synthesis• Supervised (common individual phenotypes)• Unsupervised (machine based clustering of phenotype patterns)
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ToxCastDB – ToxCast Data
• Links – Chemicals– Assays– Genes– Pathways– Endpoints
• Allows data analyses– Statistical associations– Biologically drive data mining
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ExposureBackground Exposure
HumanEnvironment
Biomonitoring
Population
Uptake
N
N N
NH NH
Cl
Exposure Media
Contact
Products
Sources
Chemicals
HostSusceptibility
Biotransformation
ExposomeInformatics Approaches
Network Models
Knowledge Systems
Mechanistic Models
Exposure
Database
Distribution/Fate
Exposure Data: ExpoCastExposure Science for Prioritization and Toxicity Testing