Compound Semiconductor Quarterly Market Monitor · (Ga2O3, AlN, Bulk GaN…) Technology Platform...

19
©2020 Sample From Technologies to Markets Compound Semiconductor Quarterly Market Monitor Compound Semiconductor Service 2020

Transcript of Compound Semiconductor Quarterly Market Monitor · (Ga2O3, AlN, Bulk GaN…) Technology Platform...

Page 1: Compound Semiconductor Quarterly Market Monitor · (Ga2O3, AlN, Bulk GaN…) Technology Platform for Power Electronics, RF and photonics At Yole GaAs, InP, Ga 2 O 3, AlN, Diamond,

©2020

Sample

From Technologies to Markets

Compound Semiconductor Quarterly

Market Monitor

Compound Semiconductor

Service 2020

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2Compound Semiconductor Service | Sample | www.yole.fr | © 2020

Hong LIN, Ph.D.Principal Analyst

Compound

Semiconductor &

Emerging Materials

Ezgi DOGMUS,

Ph.D.Technology & Market

Analyst

Compound Semiconductor

& Emerging Materials

Ahmed Ben

SLIMANE, Ph.D.Technology & Market

Analyst

Compound Semiconductor

& Emerging Materials

Ivan DONALDSON

VP of Yole Finance

Claire TROADEC

Division Director

Power & Wireless

Jean-Christophe

ELOY

President & CEO

Experience

12+ years in Compound

Semiconductors & Emerging

Technologies

Experience

7+ years in Compound

Semiconductors

Experience:

8+ years in Compound

Semiconductors

Experience:

14 years in Semiconductor

Industry Strategy, Business

Development, and IR

Experience

18+ years in Semiconductors &

Business Management

Experience

25+ years in Semiconductor

Industry Strategy

At Yole

IGBTs, SiC, GaN,, GaAs, InP

and emerging semiconductors

(Ga2O3, AlN, Bulk GaN…)

Technology Platform for Power

Electronics, RF and photonics

At Yole

GaAs, InP, Ga2O3, AlN, Diamond,

GaN, SiC Technology platform

for Power Electronics, RF and

LEDs

At Yole:

GaAs, InP, Ga2O3, AlN,

Diamond, GaN, SiC Technology

platform for Power Electronics,

RF and LEDs

At Yole:

Manages all services

and relationships

for global financial clients

At Yole

Power Elec. & Compound. Semi.,

RF technologies and applications,

MEMS & Sensors Manufacturing,

Fabs & Foundries.

At Yole

All technical topics

Previous companies

Onera, Newstep Tech.

Previous companies

IEMN Lab, CEA

Previous companies:

TOTAL, AGRICOOL, IPVF &

CNRS

Previous companies:

Micron Technology

Previous companies

Philips, NXP, Au Claire de la

Terre

Previous companies

Ernst & Young, CEA Marketing

Office

Education

PhD in physics and chemistry of

materials Université Pierre et

Marie Curie (Paris VI)

Education

PhD in Material Science,

University of Lille

Education:

PhD in Material Science, KAUST

Education:

MBA in Finance, Magna Cum

Laude, Boise State University

Education

M. Business Management

M. Sc. Applied Physics

Education

MBA EM Lyon

M.Sc. Electrical Engineering

INPG/ENSERG

ABOUT THE COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR TEAM AT YOLE

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Hong Lin, Principal Analyst, Compound Semiconductor

Hong Lin, PhD, is a Principal Analyst, Compound Semiconductors at Yole Développement (Yole). Since 2013, Hong has been involved in analyzing the

compound semiconductor market with dedicated technical, strategic, market and financial analyses. Hong interacts on a daily basis with leading SiC

companies, from wafer suppliers to device manufacturers, as well as equipment suppliers and end users, to understand the added value of this

technology, its ability to penetrate the markets and its adoption by the end-users. Prior to Yole, she worked as an R&D Engineer at Newstep

Technologies. Dr Hong Lin holds a PhD in physics and chemistry of materials from the University of Pierre & Marie Curie (Paris VI, France).

Contact: [email protected]

Ezgi Dogmus, Technology & Market Analyst, Compound Semiconductors & Emerging Materials

As a Technology & Market Analyst, Compound Semiconductors, Ezgi Dogmus, PhD is member of the Power & Wireless division at Yole Développement(Yole). She is daily contributing to the development of these activities with a dedicated collection of market & technology reports as well as custom consulting projects. Prior Yole, Ezgi was deeply involved in the development of GaN-based solutions at IEMN (Lille, France). Ezgi also participated in numerous international conferences and has authored or co-authored more than 12 papers. Upon graduating from University of Augsburg (Germany) and Grenoble Institute of Technology (France), Ezgi received her PhD in Microelectronics at IEMN (France).

Contact: [email protected]

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Biographies and contacts

Ahmed Ben Slimane, Technology & Market Analyst, Compound Semiconductor Monitors

Ahmed Ben Slimane, PhD. is a Technology & Market Analyst, Compound Semiconductors at Yole Développement (Yole). As part of the Power & Wireless team, Ahmed is engaged in the development of dedicated collection of market & technology reports and dedicated monitor. Previously, he worked as an epitaxy (MBE/MOCVD) & fabrication process engineer for GaAsbased photovoltaic applications at TOTAL and IPVF (Paris-Saclay, France). Ahmed also completed his PhD in Material Engineering from KAUST (Saudi Arabia). Ahmed obtained his Master degree in Electronics Engineering from INPG (Grenoble, France).

Contact: [email protected]

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COMPANIES MONITORED IN THIS PRODUCT

STMicroelectronics, Wolfspeed/Cree, ROHM, Infineon, ON Semiconductor, Mitsubishi Electric, Showa Denko, II-VI, EPC, Power Integrations, Transphorm, GaN Systems, Navitas, IQE

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Compound Semi. Monitor timeline

Terminology and definitions

o Acronyms

o Explanation and methodology

o Definition of estimated market, terminology at substrate, epitaxy &

device level

o Supply chain & business model

o Open and Captive market

o Applicative power electronics market segments

o Formulas used

Changes since previous quarter and what to look out for

Compound semiconductor-based power market comparative

analysis

o Power device as a function of power & frequency

o Power device market revenues : SiC vs. GaN vs SI

Power SiC market overview

o Power SiC device market dynamics

o Power SiC open epiwafer market dynamics

o Power SiC wafer market dynamics

o Power SiC device market revenue

o Power Sic epiwafer market shipments

o Power SiC open epiwafer market revenue

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Part 1/2

o Power SiC wafer shipments

o Power SiC wafer market revenue

o Power SiC wafer pricing

o Power SiC epiwafer pricing

o Quarterly Power SiC device revenue: Near term

o Quarterly Power SiC device revenue: Long term

o Quarterly Power SiC wafer revenue: Near term

o Quarterly Power SiC wafer revenue: Long term

o Quarterly Power SiC open epiwafer revenue: Near term

o Quarterly Power SiC open epiwafer revenue: Long term

• Power SiC market FORECASTs

o Power SiC device market by segment

o Power SiC device market shares

o Power SiC open epiwafer market by segment

o Power SiC open epiwafer market share

o Power SiC wafer market by segment

o Power SiC wafer market shares

Power SiC technology

o Power SiC device market by device type ($M)

o Power SiC bare die device market by device type ($M)

o SiC wafer development timeline

o Power SiC wafer market by wafer size ($M)

o Power SiC wafer market by wafer size ($M)Compound Semiconductor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | © 2020

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o Power SiC wafer market by wafer size (Units)

o Power SiC open epiwafer market by wafer size ($M)

o Power SiC open epiwafer market by wafer size (Units)

Power SiC market players

o STMicroelectronics - Power SiC device revenue

o Wolfspeed/CREE - Power SiC device revenue

o ROHM - Power SiC device revenue

o Infineon - Power SiC device revenue

o ON Semiconductor - Power SiC device revenue

o Mitsubishi Electric - Power SiC device revenue

o CREE - Power SiC epiwafer revenue

o Showa Denko - Power SiC epiwafer revenue

o CREE – Power SiC wafer revenue

o II-VI - Power SiC wafer revenue

Power GaN market overview

o Power GaN market dynamics

o Power GaN open epiwafer market dynamics

o Power GaN device market revenue

o Power GaN open epiwafer market revenue

o Power GaN open + captive epiwafer market shipments

o Power GaN open epiwafer market shipments

o Power GaN epiwafer pricing

o Quarterly Power GaN device revenue: Near term

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Part 2/2

o Quarterly Power GaN device revenue: Long term

o Quarterly Power GaN epiwafer revenue: Near term

o Quarterly Power GaN epiwafer revenue: Long term

Power GaN market Forecasts

o Power GaN device market by segment

o Power GaN device market share

o Power GaN open epiwafer market by segment

o Power GaN open epiwafer market share

Power GaN technology

o Power GaN device market by device type

o Power GaN bare die device market by device type

o Power GaN device market by technology platform ($M)

o Power GaN open epiwafer market by wafer type (in units)

o Power GaN open epiwafer market by wafer size (in units)

Power GaN market players

o Infineon - Power GaN device revenue

o EPC - Power GaN device revenue

o Transphorm - Power GaN device revenue

o GaN Systems - Power GaN device revenue

o Power Integration- Power GaN device revenue

o Navitas - Power GaN device revenue

o IQE - Power GaN epiwafer revenueCompound Semiconductor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | © 2020

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COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR MONITOR - EVOLUTION

Compound Semiconductor Monitor

GaN & SiC power

GaN & GaAs RF

GaAs & InP photonics

(VCSELs & EELs)

Module I

Module II

Module III

2019 Q4 released

2020 Q3

Publication date

*Under evaluation

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COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR MONITOR - TIMELINE

Dec

2019

March

2020

Jun

2020

Sep

2020

Dec

2020

March

2021

Jun

2021

Sep

2021

CS Monitor:

Module I

Q4 2019

CS Monitor

Module I

Q1 2020

update

CS Monitor

Module I

Q2 2020

update

CS Monitor

Module I

Module II

Q3 2020

update

CS Monitor

Module I

Module II

Q4 2020

update

CS Monitor

Module I

Module II

Module III

Q1 2021

update

CS Monitor

Module I

Module II

Module III

Q2 2021

update

CS Monitor

Module I

Module II

Module III

Q3 2021

update

Dec

2021

CS Monitor

Module I

Module II

Module III

Q4 2021

update

QUARTERLY MONITOR VERSION

PUBLICATION DATE

Each Quarterly Monitor version, labelled Qx, includes data from the former Quarter (Qx-1) as we need time to collect and

process the data from each company after their quarterly earnings release and after interviews with our analysts. For example,

this second release of the CS Monitor, labelled Q1 2020, is based on company data from Q4-2019.

This Monitor

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EXPLANATION OF CS MONITOR METHODOLOGY

POWER SiC and POWER GaN

Applicative power electronics

markets

CS power devices

CS epi wafer CS wafer

CS wafer CS epi wafer

Top-down approach

Bottom-up approach

MONITOR

Consumer Automotive

Transporta-

tion

IndustrialTelecom &

Infrastructure

Energy

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• As indicated on the previous slide, there are different business models with different levels of integration in Power SiC business.• Some players are vertically integrated from module down to wafer, as is the case for Cree/Wolfspeed, ROHM and

STMicroelectronics.• Some players make epiwafer internally, such as Cree/Wolfspeed, Infineon and many others.• Some players, such as Semikron, Danfoss and others, make only module packages and buy dies from Cree, ROHM and others.

• In this context, we need to precisely define the market and the supplier revenue that we estimate:• Device level

• Device market: device market accessible by the suppliers of SiC technology. We estimate the penetration rate of SiC technology with regards to TAM* in the market size forecast.

• Device supply: we include the revenue of both the device players and module players. For example, Cree/Wolfspeed is selling their SiC dies to module packagers. Thus there is double counting. This is common in the Si semiconductor business, such as TSMC is delivering devices to numerous fabless companies. Therefore, in the Monitor, the total revenue of different device suppliers ($M) are larger than the device market ($M) estimated from a top-down approach. We are expecting that the ratio of the suppliers’ revenue over estimated market size from the top down approach will increase over the years as the module business is expected to increase in the future and there are more die business.

• Epiwafer level• Both captive and open markets are counted for the market in terms of volume (units). Only open market is counted for the

market size ($M) as the internal transfer pricing of numerous players are unknown to us. An outsourcing ratio is used to estimate the open market size ($M).

• Epiwafer market: derived from device market. • Epiwafer supply: only wafers that are sold are counted. For example, for Cree/Wolfspeed, we do not include its internal

consumption. As we do not have access to their internal transfer pricing, we assume that there is no price difference. o Wafer level:

• Both captive and open markets are counted. • Wafer market: derived from device market.• Wafer supply: includes captive market. For example, for Cree/Wolfspeed, we include its internal consumption. As we do not

have access to its internal transfer pricing, we assume that there is no price difference.

POWER SIC: CAPTIVE AND OPEN MARKETS:

Which market and which revenue do we estimate in the Monitor?

* TAM: Total Accessible MarketCompound Semiconductor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | © 2020

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APPLICATIVE POWER ELECTRONICS MARKET SEGMENTS

• Home appliances

• Mobile fast charging

• Wireless charging

• Audio & Image

Consumer

•EV/HEV

•LIDAR in autonomous vehicles

Automotive

•Wind

•Photovoltaics

Energy

•Rail

Transportation

•Data center, servers

•Envelope tracking

Telecom & Infrastructure

•UPS

•Motor drives

• Industrial power supply

•LIDAR

•EV charging infrastructure

Industrial

•Defense

•Aerospace applications

•Medical

Others

• For the top down approach, all end system numbers are extracted from Yole’s internal database.

• In order to highlight the different market dynamics of the Power Electronics industry, our analyses are categorized into major

applicative market segments as shown below.

• In particular, as the primary driver for SiC market and an important driver for future GaN market, automotive is an independent

segment. Photovoltaics and Wind are positioned in the energy segment. For smaller market contributors, such as Defense or

medical, we have placed them in “others”.

• At Yole Développement, the following end-applicative markets are tracked :

Mobile &

Consumer

Automotive &

MobilityTelecom &

Infrastructure

Defense &

Aerospace

Industrial Medical

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FORMULAS USED IN THE MONITOR

ASP:Average selling price

o ASP is the average selling price of a product across the market as a whole.

o e.g. in calculating the ASP of GaN epi-wafer:𝐴𝑆𝑃 =𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑠 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑑

YoY:Year-over-year growth

o The year-over-year growth rate calculates the percentage change during the past twelve months.

o e.g. the yearly growth for 2019 : 𝑌𝑜𝑌2019 =𝑌2019−𝑌2018

𝑌2018× 100 (%)

QoQ: Quarter-on-quarter

o Similar to YoY, quarter-over-quarter growth rate calculates the percentage change of one period with the same periodfrom the previous year.

o e.g. the growth for the 3rd quarter, Q3, of 2019 : (𝑄𝑜𝑄3)2019=(𝑄3)2019−(𝑄3)2018

(𝑄3)2018× 100 (%)

Q/Q: Quarter-over-quarter

o quarter-over-quarter growth rate calculates the percentage change of one period with the previous period of the sameyear.

o e.g. the growth for the 3rd quarter, Q3, of 2019 : (𝑄/𝑄3)2019=(𝑄3)2019−(𝑄2)2019

(𝑄2)2019× 100 (%)

QoQ is commonly used for financial reports, while it is more relevant to report the Q/Q for SiC and GaN marketwhich is growing very rapidly, in our opinion. We therefore report both QoQ & Q/Q in the quarter marketoverview forecasts and Q/Q for the rest.

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POWER SIC DEVICE MARKET DYNAMICS – Q2Q*

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POWER INTEGRATIONS – POWER GAN DEVICE REVENUE

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POWER GAN DEVICE MARKET DYNAMICS AND NEAR TERM DEVICE REVENUE

Device Market Revenues

Device Market Revenues: Quarterly updated

Device Revenues (in M$) Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21

Infineon X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

EPC X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Power Integration X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Transphorm X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

GaN Systems X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Navitas X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Others X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Forecast X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Total X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Revenue growth Q/Q (%) X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Revenue growth QoQ (%) X X X X X X X X X X X X X

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CS MONITOR

Compound Semiconductor Market Monitor- Module 1 Q4 2019Covering the entire Power electronics market: Automotive, Consumer, Industry…

Report Quarter Q4-19

Power SiC Power GaN Si vs. SiC vs. GaNPower SiC Market Overview Power GaN Market Overview Market Projection by Material (Si vs. SiC vs. GaN)

Device Market Revenues Device Market Revenues

Open Epiwafer Market Revenues Open Epiwafer Market Revenues

Open & Captive Epiwafer Shipment Open & Captive Epiwafer Shipment

Wafer Market Revenues Epiwafer ASP (6 inch)

Wafer Shipment

Epiwafer & Wafer ASP (6 inch)

Power SiC Device Applicative Market Power GaN Device Applicative Market

Power Device Market by segment Power Device Market by segment

Power Device Market by Device type Power Device Market by Device type

Power Bare Die Market by Device type Power Bare Die Market by Device type

Power Device Market by Technology

Power SiC Wafer Applicative Market

Power Wafer Market by Segment Power GaN Epiwafer Applicative Market

Power Wafer Market by Size Open Epiwafer Market & Shipment By Segment

Power GaN on Si Open Epiwafer By Wafer Size

Power SiC Epiwafer Applicative Market Power GaN on Sapphire Open Epiwafer By Wafer Size

Power Epiwafer Market by Segment Power GaN Open Epiwafer By Wafer Size

Power Epiwafer Market by Size Power GaN Open Epiwafer By Technology

Power SiC Market Players Power GaN Market Players

STMicroelectronics Infineon

Cree Transphorm

ROHM EPC

Infineon GaN Systems

Mitsubishi Electric Power Integrations

OnSemiconductor Navitas

Showa Denko IQE

II VI

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Contact our

Sales Team

for more

information

GaN-Based Wall Charger Comparison 2019

GaN-on-Sapphire HEMT Power IC by Power

Integrations

OPPO’s GaN-based and silicon-based SuperVOOC in-box fast

chargers

Navitas 650V GaNFast Power IC Family

YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS

SYSTEM PLUS CONSULTING

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CONTACT INFORMATION

oCONSULTING AND SPECIFIC ANALYSIS, REPORT BUSINESS

o North America:

• Steve LaFerriere, Senior Sales Director for Western US & Canada

Email: [email protected] – + 1 310 600-8267

• Chris Youman, Senior Sales Director for Eastern US & Canada

Email: [email protected] – +1 919 607 9839

o Japan & Rest of Asia:

• Takashi Onozawa, General Manager, Asia Business Development

(India & ROA)

Email: [email protected] - +81 34405-9204

• Miho Ohtake, Account Manager (Japan)

Email: [email protected] - +81 3 4405 9204

• Itsuyo Oshiba, Account Manager (Japan & Singapore)

Email: [email protected] - +81-80-3577-3042

o Korea: Peter Ok, Business Development Director

Email: [email protected] - +82 10 4089 0233

o Greater China: Mavis Wang, Director of Greater China Business

Development

Email: [email protected] - +886 979 336 809

o Europe: Lizzie Levenez, EMEA Business Development Manager

Email: [email protected] - +49 15 123 544 182

o RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President, Yole Développement

Email [email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 80

oFINANCIAL SERVICES (in partnership with Woodside Capital

Partners)

o Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President

Email: [email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 80

o Ivan Donaldson, VP of Financial Market Development

Email: [email protected] - +1 208 850 3914

oCUSTOM PROJECT SERVICES

o Jérome Azémar, Technical Project Development Director

Email: [email protected] - +33 6 27 68 69 33

oGENERAL

o Camille Veyrier, Director, Marketing & Communication

Email: [email protected] - +33 472 83 01 01

o Sandrine Leroy, Director, Public Relations

Email: [email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 89 / +33 6 33 11 61 55

o Email: [email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 80

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