Complexity in Computer Systems: a Risky Business · 2015-05-28 · Comple Computer a Risky B...
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Comple Computer a Risky B Professor Ia Professor Ia Information Systems a Department of Department of London Schoo www.ianangell.com exity in r Systems: Business an O Angell an O. Angell and Innovation Group f Management f Management l of Economics
Transcript of Complexity in Computer Systems: a Risky Business · 2015-05-28 · Comple Computer a Risky B...
CompleComputer
a Risky B
Professor IaProfessor IaInformation Systems a
Department ofDepartment ofLondon Schoo
www.ianangell.com
exity inr Systems:Business
an O Angellan O. Angelland Innovation Group f Managementf Managementl of Economics
Why do we needaa
Technology transformTechnology transformWe ‘explain’, and there
for the optimism inI th d iIn other words we imp
to gain a tenuous ha
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to gain a tenuous ha
d Technology at all?all?
s uncertainty into risk.s uncertainty into risk. by swap hopelessness,n a plan of action.
t t i dpose structure in orderandle on uncertainty.andle on uncertainty.
(numerical) Algor
= (systemic) Ri (systemic) Ri= Hazard + Oppo= Hazard + Oppo
Managing U
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rithms + People
skskortunityortunity
Uncertainty?
Managing U“Though this
yet there isyet there is (Hamlet Act(Hamlet, Act
Method is thethe only resort o
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Uncertainty?be madness, method in’t”method in t t II Scene 2)t II, Scene 2)
e first, the last, of the mediocre
Definition of aDefinition of aDefinition of aDefinition of a
“they had to be luwe had to be lu
(IRA spokesman after when they almost killewhen they almost kille
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a Singularity:a Singularity:a Singularity:a Singularity:
ucky all the time, ucky just once”
the Brighton bombing, ed Margaret Thatcher)ed Margaret Thatcher)
Goodhar“any obs
statistical rill t d twill tend to
once pressurepfor control p
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rt’s Lawserved regularity
llo collapse e is placed on itppurposes”
Beyond GooBeyond Goo
Look toward the obseLook toward the obserisrisrisris
that occur when comthat occur when cominto into Human AcHuman Ac
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od and eod and e--VilleVille
ervable consequential ervable consequential sksskssks sks puters are integrated puters are integrated ctivity Systemsctivity Systems
Computersobjeobje
well-structurewell structurewith d
They cannosubjective
ambiguity an
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s deal with ectiveectiveed problems,ed problems,detail.ot cope withe subtlety,nd complexity
A good technoA good technoalthough
is not sufficie
Success or failureSuccess or failurewill be det
unique socorganizational,
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ology platform,ology platform, necessary, nt for success.
with a technologywith a technology termined by ycial, political, and particularly
al factors.
Pablo P“Computers
they only
AAnswe
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Picassoare useless,
y give you
!!!!”ers!!!!”
BLAST“ t“you are at
6 million6 millionall made by they
Michael
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T-OFFt th t ft the top ofn partsn parts, lowest bidder!”l Collins
The PThe Pis here ais here a
The CThe Caccrues from haccrues from h
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Price:Price: and nowand now
Cost:Cost: here to eternityhere to eternity
A Sysyor
an Insta
A S stem iA System is wwhat it will
NOT what it is i
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stem rllation?
h i bwhat it becomes,become,,
ntended to be.
Systems mSystems mInstallations
systems are intrins
In a linearthe consequencethe consequence
stop with a
in the non-linear we o eaunforeseen conseque
l f h iwww.ianangell.com
as a result of the ine
isbehave!isbehave!are linear,
sically non-linear
r world, es of an Actiones of an Action Reaction;
world of practice, o d o p ac ce,ences feed back
i bl l ivitable complexity
SystemyHazard or O
Negative FeedbackNegative Feedbackor Positive Feedbac
the Buttethe Butte
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mic RiskOpportunity?
k: reinforces stabilityk: reinforces stability k: the seed of Chaos
rfly Effectrfly Effect
C l it iComplexity incre
where utility bec
reliance become
and the Law of Dim
precipitates a gag
into Nigwww.ianangell.com
into Nig
t i teases to a point
comes reliance,
es dependence,
minishing Returns
alloping descentg
ghtmareghtmare
The first stThe first stThe first stThe first st
“th thi k th“th thi k th“they think they are re“they think they are re
but all they’ve done but all they’ve done tretretretre
HerbertHerbertHerbert Herbert
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tep fallacytep fallacytep fallacytep fallacy
hi f thhi f theaching for the moon,eaching for the moon,
is climb the nearest is climb the nearest ee”ee”eeee
DreyfusDreyfusDreyfusDreyfus
President PThere are three
Women, GamblinWomen are the m
G bli iGambling is but Technology isbut Technology is
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Pompidou:pRoads to Ruin, g and Technology!
most Pleasurable, th Q i k tthe Quickest,
s the most Certain!s the most Certain!
PriePrie“do you renou
d ll hi“do you renou
d ll hiand all hisand all his
Niccolo MNiccolo MNiccolo M“This is
Niccolo M“This is
to be makinto be makin
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est:est:unce the devil
k ?”unce the devil
k ?”s works?”s works?”
achiavelli:achiavelli:achiavelli:no time achiavelli:no time
ng enemies”ng enemies”
The Buck sThe Buck sThe Buck sThe Buck sDefensive usDefensive us
ResponResponversvers
A thA thAuthAuth
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stops Therestops Therestops Therestops Therese of ese of e--mailsmails
nsibility nsibility sus sus
h ith ithorityhority
The Shell oil reThe Shell oil re
The van de VThe van de V
“I am becoming“I am becoming
about lyingabout lying
extent of ouextent of ouextent of ouextent of ou
Shell fined $120 mShell fined $120 m
d £1 illid £1 illiwww.ianangell.com
and £17 millioand £17 millio
serves scandalserves scandal
Vijver eVijver e--mail:mail:jj
g sick and tiredg sick and tired
g about the g about the
ur reserves”ur reserves”ur reservesur reserves
million by the SEC,million by the SEC,
b h FSAb h FSAon by the FSA.on by the FSA.
“Every revoluti“Every revolutiyyand leaves band leaves bli fli fslime of a newslime of a new
Franz
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on evaporates on evaporates ppbehind only the behind only the
b ”b ”w bureaucracy”w bureaucracy”
Kafka
the ‘Glass-Cocomnipresent compuomnipresent compu
causing confusion an
1) end users rely entire1) end users rely entirewithout exercising
2) ensuing informationin users ignoring mg g
(sometimes very im
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kpit Syndrome’ter screens distractter screens distract,
nd errors of judgement
ely on the systemely on the systemany judgement.overload results
many pieces ofy pmportant) information.
BureauBureauBureauBureau
‘normal’ vers‘normal’ vers
DiscreDiscreDiscreDiscreselfself--referentireferentiselfself referentireferenti
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ucracyucracyucracyucracy
sus ‘singular’sus ‘singular’
etion oretion oretion oretion orial certainty?ial certainty?ial certainty?ial certainty?
D iDennis
“When you’
STOP DIG
OptimisticOptimistic
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H lHealey:
re in a hole,
GGING!!!!”
rationalityrationality
MoonMoon
What I sayWhat I say,I say witho
that scienthat scienthe lates
supe
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ndog:ndog:
I say now, I say now, ut condition,
nce is butnce is but t, greatest
titirstition
Al M EAlan M. E
“New Tec
owes E
an Apoan Apo
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EddiEddison:
chnology
Ecologygy
ology!”ology!
Friedrich N
“Madness is somethin
but in groups, part
it is the
Nietzsche:
ng rare in individuals,
ties, peoples, ages
e rule.”
The Madness ofHuman thought isHuman thought is
we are biological an
Their Hidde1) a number canrepresentationrepresentation
of human experienc2) ith ti2) arithmetic operepresentations,p
implemented on a c‘rational decisions’ a
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rational decisions athe human condition
f Control Freaksmere calculation;mere calculation;
nalogue computers.
en Agenda: gbe a meaningful
e; andti herations on such
computer, can produceabout and can controlabout, and can controln.
The UncertaThe UncertaThere’s no point in mpif it changes the mom
as a direct result o
fProfi
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inty Principleinty Principlemeasuring something g gment it is measured, fof being measured.
?ling?
Peter Principle of
Individuals and
promoted to th
INCOMPEINCOMPE
But wou o
computers mag
the incompetence
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f Computerization
Computers are
he level of their
ETENCEETENCE.
orse .....o se
nify and amplify
of all those around
Th fiTh fiThe figuresThe figures
“It’s not the f“It’s not the fIt s not the fIt s not the fit’s theliarsit’s theliarsit s theliarsit s theliars
Mark TMark T
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d ’t li ?d ’t li ?s don’t lie?s don’t lie?
figures lyingfigures lyingfigures lying,figures lying,s figuring”s figuring”s figurings figuringTwainTwain
AtomSimilarity =
False OpPretend to be
P t d tPretend to
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mismSameness
pposites:e serious then
b fo be funny
Friedrich Nietzsch“capricious divisiofragmentation”fragmentation”
Shakespeare“The fault, dear Bri t b t iin our stars, but in
Niklas Luhmann
www.ianangell.comThe Fallacy of the
he:on and
rutus, lies notl ”n ourselves ...”
e Residual Category
Niklas LuNiklas Lu
“The concept of the enp
be misunderstood a
category. Instead, r
environment is con
format
Structuralwww.ianangell.com
Structural
uhmann:uhmann:
nvironment should not
s a kind of residual
relationship to the
stitutive in system
tion.”
CouplingCoupling
The Borrommean Rings
h ifi i llthe two artificiallcontinue to operatcontinue to operat
as the unobseBecause of th(between the(between the
and as it is all observation
b t th ditibut those conditiounobservable, unapp
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, pp
l dly separated parts te (and interrelate)te (and interrelate) rvable whole.
his asymmetry world as it isworld as it is, observed),
n is conditional, ilons are necessarily
preciable, uncertain.p ,
Those truncated strso casually discarde
stay on as unand thus as risksand thus, as risks
in any further oin any further oand they can reasin the most incon
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ructural couplings, ed by observation, ncertaintiess to the observers to the observer observations,observations, ssert themselves nvenient ways.
The nine most ti th E liin the Englis
“I’m from theI m from the I’m here toI m here to
President Ro
terrifying wordsh lsh language:governmentgovernment.
o help you”o help youonald Reagang
“Our society is runOur society is run for insane ofor insane o
I think we’re beingfor maniaca
John Le
by insane peopleby insane people objectives.objectives. run by maniacs
al ends ...” ennon
