Complexity, dynamic systems and risk: The science and engineering of sustainability Carol Boyle...
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Transcript of Complexity, dynamic systems and risk: The science and engineering of sustainability Carol Boyle...
Complexity, dynamic Complexity, dynamic systems and risk: systems and risk: The science and The science and engineering of engineering of sustainabilitysustainability
Carol BoyleDirector
International Centre for Sustainability Engineering and
ResearchUniversity of Auckland
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SustainabilitySustainability
Ensuring the needs of the current generation are met without compromising the needs of future generations
4 generations = 100 years
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Existing CitiesExisting Cities
Damascus – 5000 yrs old Athens – 7000 yrs old
Prague 2000 yrs old
London 2000 yrs ago
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Unsustainable CitiesUnsustainable Cities
Easter Island
Machu PichuMesa Verde
New Orleans
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Goals and Assumptions for Goals and Assumptions for the Futurethe Future
Goals
Humans will be here
Current cities will be here
Assumptions
Materials and energy will still be required
Human basic needs will not have changed
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Facing RealityFacing Reality
We are dealing with complex systems which have multiple external and internal interactions and feedbacks
Both spatial boundaries and time frames are locality and system dependant
We don’t know the limits or thresholds of most environmental or social systems
These systems are dynamic, changing over space and time
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ComplexComplex
Biological Environment
Climate/Weather
HydrologicalEnvironment
ChemicalEnvironment
Geological/GeographicalEnvironment
Solar Energy
LunarGravitation
SocialSystem
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Social SystemSocial System
CentralGovernment
CommunitiesBusinesses
Institutions
LocalGovernments
NGOs
Public Service
Social System
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TimeframeYears Water Soil Land Food1 Annual rainfall,
flooding, runoff,pollution
Erosion, nutrientlevel, organiccontent, pollution
Management of existingland use
Annual production,cash/food crop,pest prevention
5-10 Storage, groundwatercontamination
Heavy metalaccumulation, soilhealth
Residential/commercial/industrial development
Crop rotations,disease and pestmanagement
10-50 Climate Salinisation,compaction,desertification, soilhealth
Urban/ruraldevelopment
Climate suitabilityfor crops,production energyrequirements
50-100 Recharge ofundergroundstorage systems
Gradual soil loss,soil health
Floodplaindevelopment,volcanic/seismicactivity
Long term cropmanagement
100-500 Climate changes;effects onmax/min rainfall
Soil loss, soilhealth
Infrastructure Species diversity,social stability
1000 Local supply fordrinking,sanitation, foodproduction,ecosystemsupport
Soil abundance,health
Transportationcorridors, developmentareas
Long term localproduction ofminimum supplyfor local population
return
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Dynamic SystemsDynamic SystemsSystems and system components respond to fellow systems
and components in unique ways but follow general rules and are bounded by system limitations
Systems adjust to new situations
As systems evolve, they become larger, more complex and the systems generally become more efficient
They exhibit fractal characteristics, not only in spatial scale but also in temporal scale
They evolve in unusual and unpredictable ways and exhibit emergence
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Complexity and ChaosComplexity and Chaos
Order RandomChaosComplexity
No rulesStrict rules
Edge of Chaos
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Dynamic SystemsDynamic Systems
Feedback influences system behaviour but feedback may be delayed by varying amounts, increasing the complexity of the dynamic behaviour
The system is defined by the environmental and social parameters which usually fluctuate within limits; should the system parameters exceed those limits, the system attractor changes and the system either fails or evolves into another system
Both environmental and human systems exhibit self organisation, which assists in maintaining the system within its limits
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Atmospheric convection – the Lorenzo attractor
The self organisation nature of complex systems results in a probability distribution
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System NeedsSystem Needs
Each system has basic needs in order to be maintained
For humans, we have both physical and psychological needs
While many system needs are obvious, others may be quite obscure and others are closely interlinked
Systems which have multiple sources or ways of managing their needs have inherent resilience so are not at the same risk as systems with single sources
Sustainability is focused on the provision of needs to ensure that social systems are sustained
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SurvivalSurvival
By ensuring we are meeting basic needs, we are only ensuring the survival of human kind
This is a threshold below which we start to see degradation in human health, increasing infant and child mortality, decreased life span, loss of social cohesion and increasing civil unrest
We need a better understanding of system limits to provide for those needs so we can ensure we do not fall below that threshold
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Systems and ProbabilitySystems and ProbabilityWhile the future of the systems cannot be specifically
identified some level of probability can be determined
The risk of the system moving outside its boundaries needs to be identified
Issues:
Variables within natural and human systems lie within a range; they tend to be fuzzy
Variables are dependant on local conditions
Linkages are highly varied and dependant on local conditions and local systems
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Sustainability of SystemsSustainability of SystemsThe systems which make up society and which support
human survival need to be better identified and understood including:
The overall dynamics of the systems and the linkages between systems
The risks to those systems, the implications of those risks and risk mitigations measures
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Risk - Knowns and UnknownsRisk - Knowns and Unknowns
Known Probability & Consequence
Some UnknownsEither
Probabilities orConsequences
UnknownsBoth
Probabilities &Consequences
Widget failureRisk of accident
Pollution
Climate Change ?
Peak Oil
Tipping pointsSocietal collapseAsteroid strike
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The Science of SustainabilityThe Science of SustainabilitySustainability: meeting the needs of humans now and for
future generations
The needs of humans have to be identified
Sustainability can only be considered on a local basis
Can be measured only through risk
Systems and their linkages need to be considered
The rules that the systems follow are critical in defining the behaviour of the system
By setting some constraints on human activities, the future risk can be reduced
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Sustainability EngineeringSustainability EngineeringWe need to consider needs analysis not demand analysis
Engineers, planners, architects need to recognise that they often build ‘engineered needs’ into urban, infrastructure, building and product design
There ARE system limits and they must be acknowledged and incorporated into engineering design
We cannot solve all problems with technology
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Bringing Businesses on BoardBringing Businesses on BoardBusinesses are an integral component of society
They will play a significant role in achieving sustainability
Many businesses are now starting to look beyond profit, greed and the five year horizon
They are acknowledging that to have a longer lifespan, the company needs a longer term vision
The focus on company needs and risk to the company is readily understood by management
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Risks to BusinessesRisks to BusinessesEconomic – economic and production shortages of energy
and materials (especially metals)
Legislative – requirements in Europe are driving many companies to rethink product design
Social – companies are beginning to realise the value of a well trained employee
Climate change – this will require a total change of mindframe if companies are to reduce CO2 emissions
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Risks to BusinessesRisks to BusinessesProduct innovation – important to maintaining a
competitive edge
Public perception - This can make or break a company
Businesses are an integral component of society and are necessary for its effective function
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Current Viewpoints in NZCurrent Viewpoints in NZYoung engineers see sustainability as having huge
opportunities and as being highly attractive
Companies are now seeing sustainability as inevitable
Consulting firms are scrambling to establish themselves as ‘The sustainability consultant’
The government is promoting sustainability strongly
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Current Viewpoints in NZCurrent Viewpoints in NZThe term sustainability is still used with little understanding
Most councils and companies are happy with ‘greenwash’
There is little distinction between environmental improvement and sustainability
Many companies think sustainability is too hard
The public thinks sustainability is riding a bike and recycling newspapers
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Current DirectionsCurrent DirectionsUsing dynamic modelling and GIS software to model systems
and their general boundaries, linkages
Determine the decisions which primarily influence sustainability
Identify the roles of various players in influencing those decisions
Determine the risks to systems (environmental, social, business) over the short, medium and long term
Determine the roles of engineers and business in sustainability
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Sustainability and the FutureSustainability and the Future
Science of Sustainability Infrastructure – water management Energy
Sustainable Product Design/Sustainability of Businesses Furniture Electronic goods Appliances
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“…what now remains compared with what then existed is like the skeleton of a sick man, all the fat and soft earth having wasted away, and only the bare framework of the land being left…”
Plato writing about Attica, 2,400 years ago
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Dynamic SystemsDynamic Systems