Complexity Across Boundaries: Coupled Human and Natural Systems in the Yellowstone Northern Elk...
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Transcript of Complexity Across Boundaries: Coupled Human and Natural Systems in the Yellowstone Northern Elk...
Complexity Across Boundaries: Coupled Human and Natural Systems in the Yellowstone Northern Elk Winter Range (NEWR)
(NSF Biocomplexity in the Environment (BE) – Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Award #0216588)
Cast of Characters
Dr. David McGinnis (ISU, PI) Dr. Jason Shogren (UW, Co-PI)Dr. Mark Lewis (UA) Dr. Jerry Johnson (MSU) Dr. Charles Peterson (ISU) Mr.. Wenwu Tang (UI) Mr.. Craig Anderson (UC-B)Dr. David Bennett (UI, Co-PI) Dr. William Travis (UC, Co-PI) Dr. Marc Armstrong (UI) Dr. Bruce Maxwell (MSU) Dr. Paul Robins (OSU) Ms. Lifang Huang (UI) Dr. Mark Lung (ISU)Dr. Duncan Patten (MSU, Co-PI) Dr. Bob Crabtree (YERC) Dr. Richard Horwitz (UI) Dr. Sheila McGinnis (ISU)Dr. Mark Williams (UC-B) Ms. Julia Haggerty (UC-B) Dr. Eric Noonberg (YERC)
Dec
isio
n Fr
amew
ork
Exogenous Shifts
Disease (CWD)
RegulationChange
Land Value
Population Events
Predator Tol.Scenarios
LivestockMortality
Perception of over-population
Ownership/Mgmt change
Fish & GameFormula
DiseasePerception
Env
iron
men
tal P
ract
ices
# of permits
Conversion of LC
Hunterbehavior
Regulationchange
Change in LU
# and locationlicenses
Hunter Demographics
Inst
itutio
nal C
ondi
tions
# and locationhunters
Elk
Wol
fV
eget
atio
nS
now
Bio
phys
ical
sys
tem
HUMAN SYSTEM MODEL
Policy affects land managers
Land managers affect policyPolicy makers
Land Managers
State changes within human sub-systems
Biological
Physical
State changes in biophyscial
systems a
a
a
a
Human subsystems affect the biophysical sub-systems
Biophysical subsystems affect the human sub-
systems
CONCEPTUAL DIAGRAM
LANDSCAPELANDSCAPE
PHYSICAL SYSTEM MODEL
Willow
Wolf
Elk
Beaver
Prey
Predators
Grass/shrub
Climate
Not modeled
Groundwater
Amphibian
Snow
Temp.
Rainfall
Precip
Human System Changes:DevelopmentRanchingHunting regulationWildlife management strategies
Aspen
Soil Water
Stream
Northern Elk Winter Range (www.nps.gov/yell/nature/northern range/natreg/ map.html)
Specific objectives for this project:1.Assess the knowledge/belief systems of NEWR stakeholders with respect to environmental
change and ecosystem service and relate these systems to socio-economic characteristics and stakeholder identity.
2. Improve and expand the empirical record associated with land-use/cover change and use this record to model the impact of development and other human activities on the NEWR.
3. Improve and extend individual-based models that represent large-mammal behavior. 4.Develop plausible climate scenarios that illustrate how the NEWR may adapt to global
climate change/variability.5.Use knowledge gleaned from 1 through 4 to model decision-making using quantitative
(intelligent agents) and qualitative (scenario analyses) methods and to merge the biophysical and decision-making models into an ecosystem model that allows us to explore alternative future scenarios for the NEWR.
Rose Creek wolf pack near elk trail. (http://www.nps.gov/yell/press/images/wildlife/wolf pack.jpg)
Climate classification system using non-linear Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) on 700 hPa geopotential heights. Each day is classified into a single map node shown at right. Daily snowfall water equivalence can be modeled for each SOM node to provide input to a snow model (depth, density, and character) that will then be used as input to an elk energetics model (snow depth and characteristics are crucial for winter feeding habits, migration, and predator avoidance). The elk model will be incorporated into an agent-based, spatially explicit GIS model to demonstrate how changing conditions modify elk behavior and vice versa. The annual snow accumulation will also be used in the groundwater-riparian habitat modeling.
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$$
$
$
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Agriculture
Grassland Riparian
Shrub land Forest
Disturbed
89%
79%
87%
82%
5%
11%
0.5%
1%13%
7%1%
1%
18%2%
1%
Land use transition diagram for generalized land use/cover types in the Upper Yellowstone Valley for the period between 1948 and 1998. Historical land use data provides a robust way to analyze environmental change. These changes will be related to demographic change and human decision-making systems and will be used to project future ecosystem change resulting from human activities.
Arial photos indicating 100 meter radius zones of influence around house site points (left) and 100 m radius house site zones of influence colored to show intersection with different land use/cover types. To assess how humans make decision regarding land use, qualitative interviews are being conducted. Results from these interviews will help explain why change happens and will provide input to the land-use change models.
Elk-Human interaction? (http://www.nps.gov/yell/safetyvideos.htm)
Wolf predation affects the spatial pattern of elk, concentrating them into areas of low predation pressure
Within these areas willow and aspen become over browsed which in turn has a negative impact on riparian habitat.
The wolf population responds to the new spatial pattern of elk (different packs prosper) and a new spatial pattern of predation evolves.
In response, elk adapt, reducing the pressure on plant resources in one area and increasing it in another.
Thus creating a shifting pattern of resource use that is sustainable at the landscape level.
Perhaps humans have modified this pattern.
By removing two key elements of the ecosystem, wolves and beaver, and by restricting elk movement to the upper part of their traditional migration range through development and hunting, humans may have artificially constrained this spatio-temporal cycle.
As a result, willow and aspen do not recover from elk browsing and, as a result, riparian habitats that support beaver and amphibian populations suffer. The system has, perhaps, entered into a new state with reduced stability.
Confounding factors include climate change, changes in predator-prey relationships, changes in economics and demographics, etc.
A Postulate: