Complex Systems & Focused Solutions
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Transcript of Complex Systems & Focused Solutions
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L. Booth Sweeney October 21, 2010 UWEX
Complex Systems & Focused Solutions
Roll Your Sleeves Up and Try It!
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Today
WORKING WITH SYSTEMS: • EXPERIENCE SYSTEMS MAKE-OVERS
AND SYSTEMS CONVERSATIONS
Learning Goals Learning Goals
Understanding systems
Making systems visible
Working with systems
Talking about Systems
…developing systems literacy
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When we understand systems,
we…
Get off the problem-solving treadmill
Make more informed decisions
Move beyond laundry lists and bullet points…
to seeing patterns of interaction that more closely match the more interdependent, complex world we live in.
Stop jumping to blame a single cause for the challenges we encounter…
Instead, look for multiple causes, effects and unintended impacts
“Solve for Pattern”Solving more than one problem at a time (at least three) while minimizing or eliminating the creation of new problems. -- Wendell Berry
Give our attention to the whole and the parts
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Let’s think about Joe Teen.
What does he think when buys a Coke?
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Fossil FuelsManufacturing Global warming
Burning fossil fuels contributes to global warming.
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Weather patterns
Environmental catastrophes
Destroy Infrastructure
More environmental disasters, more infrastructure destruction.
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$$ spent on Infrastructure improvements
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
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Less $$ available for health care
Decline in healthcare increases fatality
rates
Less money available, decline in healthcare.
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Buying a Coke then is a very serious matter…
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
…one that requires an understanding of interconnections, dynamics, and
systems.
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Systems Thinking Focuses on FEEDBACK to describe the interconnections and dynamics in the system
An open-loop, linear view asks: how should we react to the problem?
Situation
GoalProblem Decisions Results
A systems view asks: What is causing the problem and how have our past decisions and actions been part of it?
Situation
GoalProblem Decisions Results
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Systems Thinking Focuses on FEEDBACK to describe the interconnections and dynamics in the system
An open-loop, linear view asks: how should we react to the problem?
Situation
GoalProblem Decisions Results
A systems view asks: What is causing the problem and how have our past decisions and actions been part of it?
Situation
GoalProblem Decisions Results
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Balancing Feedback: Predator/Prey
Number of wolves
Number of rabbits
B
Population
Time
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Reinforcing Feedback: Population Growth
Number of births
R
population
IllustrativePopulation
years1960 1980 2000
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2. Name the key elements
3. Sketch the trends
1. Describe the challenge
5. Find Leverage
5. Find Leverage
4. Make System Visible
6. Share, Test & Improve
6. Share, Test & Improve
Applied Systems Thinking
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Applied Systems Thinking
2. Name the Key ElementsWhat are the important drivers? Write these as variables. Describe any known direct causal connections.
3. Sketch the TrendsGraph behavior over time of the issue(s). Does the pattern suggest any familiar structures? Archetypes?
1. Describe the Challenge & Related VisionWhat are we concerned about? What is happening over time? What is the future we want to see created?
6. Share, Test & ImproveGet feedback from others. Find data. Perhaps use simulation modeling. Act and observe real world results.
6. Share, Test & ImproveGet feedback from others. Find data. Perhaps use simulation modeling. Act and observe real world results.
5. Find LeverageWhat changes would lead to a more desirable behavior? What strategy could you use to achieve these changes?
5. Find LeverageWhat changes would lead to a more desirable behavior? What strategy could you use to achieve these changes?
4. Make the System Visible • Ask: What structure or set of relationships might be driving the behavior or interest?
• Start with a key element
• Add causes & consequences(option: connection circles)
• Close feedback loops
OR: • Start with a key feedback loop or an appropriate archetype structure
• Add feedback as needed to explain the behavior
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Sometimes We Find “Leverage Points” -- Where Small Actions Yield Large Results
“Maybe we should write that spot down.”
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Applied Systems Thinking
1. Describe the challenge
Adapted from theSustainability Institute
“Air quality in our town is getting worse.
What is driving this trend and what would address the problem over the coming years?”
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Systems Thinking Flow
2. Name the key elements
1. Describe the challenge
Adapted from theSustainability Institute
•Number of high-particulate days
•Bad press
•Attractiveness of region
(in migration)
•Population
•Health problems (asthma rates)
•Pressure for regulation
•Regulation requiring scrubbers
•Use of scrubbers
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Systems Thinking Flow
2. Name the key elements
1. Describe the challenge
Adapted from theSustainability Institute
•Number of high-particulate days
•Bad press
•Attractiveness of region
(in migration)
•Population
•Health problems (asthma rates)
•Pressure for regulation
•Regulation requiring scrubbers
•Use of scrubbers
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Applied Systems Thinking
2. Name Key Elements
3. Sketch the Trends
1. Describe the challenge
Expected future trend
Goal
Years
1980 2000 20101990
Observed pastbehavior
history future
Number of high particulate days per year
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Applied Systems Thinking
2. Name Key Elements
3. Sketch the Trends
1. Describe the challenge
4. Make the System Visible
Adapted from theSustainability Institute
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Applied Systems Thinking
2. Name key elements
3. Sketch the trends
1. Describe the challenge
5. Find leverage
5. Find leverage
4. Make the system visible
Adapted from theSustainability Institute
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2. Name the key elements
3. Sketch the trends
1. Describe the challenge
5. Find Leverage
5. Find Leverage
4. Make System Visible
6. Share, Test & Improve
6. Share, Test & Improve
Applied Systems Thinking
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Options (using 6 steps):
1. Example from your work
2. Apply to this question:
How to expand the network of sustainable communities in Wisconsin?
Try it yourself
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