Complex Adaptive Systems and International Security Analysis
Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities
description
Transcript of Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities
![Page 2: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
I haven't a clue as to how my story will end. But that's all right. When you set out on a journey and night covers the road, that's when you discover the stars.
Nancy Willard
Life is not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be lived.
Thomas Merton
Blessed are the curious
for they shall have
adventures.Lovell Drachman
Some problems are so complex
that you have to be highly
intelligent and well- informed
just to be undecided about
them.Laurence J. Pete
![Page 3: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Outline• Definitions
– What constitutes a system? – What does it mean to be simple? complex? adaptive?
• System Dynamics– What kinds of systems are there and how do they behave?– What are the structures, properties and behaviors of CAS?– How are they measured?
• Wicked Problems• Application to Terrorism and National Security
– Shaping and/or predicting behaviors
![Page 4: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
DefinitionsSystem: an internally organized whole where elements are so
intimately connected that they operate as one in relation to external conditions and other systems. An element may be defined as the minimal unit performing a definite function in the
Complex system : one whose elements may also be regarded as systems or subsystems.
whole. Every system forms a whole, but not every whole is a system.
Structure: implies not only the position of elements in space but also their movement in time, their sequence and rhythm, the law of mutation of a process. It is the law or set of laws that determine a system's composition and functioning, its properties and stability. Any breakdown in structure, any deformation of an organ leads to a distortion of the function.
Function organizes structure.Structure determines function
![Page 5: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Some Important System Characteristics to Consider
Closed or OpenStatic or DynamicBounded or unboundedEquilibrium or DisequilibriumOrdered, Complex, Chaos and/or
Random
![Page 6: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Str
uctu
ral C
ompl
exity
Randomness0 1
Measuring ComplexityInnovation
SurpriseUnpredictable
![Page 7: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Ordered Complex Random
![Page 8: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
System State Can Change…
…affecting structural form, function, and behaviors
![Page 9: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Structure and Behaviors
![Page 10: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
System Dynamics• Structure: defined by components and composition• Behavior: involves inputs, processing and outputs of material, energy, information, or data• Interconnectivity: the various parts of a system have
functional as well as structural relationships to each other.• Interactions: cooperative/competitive; directional; positive/negative; attracting/repelling; linear/non-linear; ….
![Page 11: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Change Mechanisms in SystemsVary in Timing, Intentionality, Discovery
• Mutation: random or accidental variation (DNA sequencing)• Evolution (Darwin): natural selection of mutants with improved
fitness; occurs smoothly and continuously over many generations• Co-evolution: the existence of one species is tightly bound up with
the life of another species• Learning: acquiring new or modifying existing knowledge, behaviors,
skills, values, or preferences; may involve synthesizing different types of information (imitation, repetition).
• Adaptation: processes whereby elements in a system become better suited to their environment (three levels)
• Punctuated Equilibrium (Gould, Mayer): systems remain in an extended state of stasis for most of their history. Significant evolutionary change occurs rarely, and when it does so, it is rapid and involves branching speciation (discovery, innovation, surprise)
![Page 12: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Punctuated Equilibrium
![Page 13: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Punctuated Equilibrium in Social Systems
![Page 14: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Causal Loop Diagram with Feedback
System Dynamics modeling yields non-intuitive insights into relationships between stocks, flows, and agent interactions.
![Page 15: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Putting it all together: Frame the Problem
Foreca
st
Question EpistemologyInformation
Density/unit time
System Complexity
Describ
e
Explore
Interpre
t
Infer
Suggest
Analysis approachdepends on what question
is being asked, in what timeframe
Predict
![Page 16: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
A wicked problem is one for which each attempt to create a solution changes the understanding of the problem. Wicked problems cannot be solved in a traditional linear fashion, because the problem definition
evolves as new possible solutions are considered and/or implemented.
Social Complexity Creates “Wicked Problems”
![Page 18: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Wicked Problems1. There is no definitive formulation of “the problem”… …you don’t understand it till you solve it. 2. There is no end to the problem.3. Solutions are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad.4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a
solution to the problem. Every instantiation of the problem is essentially unique.
5. Every solution to the problem is a “one-shot operation”; because there is no opportunity to learn by trial-and-error, every attempt counts significantly.
6. There is not an enumerable set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into a plan.
7. The problem is actually a symptom of another problem.
8. The existence of discrepancies when representing the problem can be explained in numerous ways.
9. The choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem’s resolution.
10. The planner has no right to be wrong.
![Page 19: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Terrorism is a Complex Problem The key is to better understand the future—plan to change it, and change it
Knowledge Network
Logistics/Infrastructure
Social/psychological
Simulation
MultidimensionalGames
Red, Blue, GreenWhite, Purple
MOADB
indications& warnings
increasehope
warn first respondersmanipulate - deceive -
control - dissuade - deter - destroy
enhancedcollection
scenario drivenhypothesis
smart decision making individuals and groups
Reality
mitigate
![Page 21: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Terrorism: It’s About People• Poor economic conditions and low
human Capital Development in Arab world will continue
• Cultural Histories, ethnic tensions, hate, superstition, conspiracy…will continue to expound victimization narratives
• Role of US/Israel as crusaders against backdrop of changing balance of powers (EU, Asia,..)
• Fundamental religious movements will continue (?) to foster rebellion against modernism
Samuel Huntington The Clash of Civilizations
![Page 22: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Complexity Science Yields New Analysis Paradigms
Intrinsic network features
transcend domains
Santa Fe InstituteWorkshop April 10-11, 2003
How Complex Adaptive Systems Dynamics are Related to Understanding and Modeling Terrorist Behavior
Sandia, Argonne, LANL,CIA, DTRA, MITRE, NavyCornell, U of Penn, Intel, CMU, Icosystems, USAF, Galisteo, Humana, Alidade,U of Maryland, MIIS, Brookings Institute
![Page 23: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Network Architectures
Giant StarHigh School Friendships
High School Dating Web SitesYeast Proteins
TB Contagion
Small Worlds
Cliques
Books on Politics
Weak Links
Freshwater Food Web
Ring
Connected Ring
Trees
![Page 24: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Network Metrics• Connectivity, centrality, betweeness• Degree• Clustering• Resilience• Tranmissivity• Directionality• Reciprocity• Path length• …
![Page 25: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Scale Free Networks
Growth by Preferential Attachment“Rich get Richer”
![Page 26: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Sample Questions• Who are key players & what makes them so?• Where are the trust networks?• How do ideas transmit, how long-lasting are
they, and can they be changed? • What are critical links in supply chains?• When does disruption cause innovation
versus defeat? • Where are the power centers? • How will people respond to new systems?
![Page 27: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
ObservationTable Top Exercises
Systems Thinking and National Security
Foreca
st
Question Epistemology
Information
Density/unit time
System Complexity
Describ
eExp
lore
Interpre
tInfer
Predict
Law Enforcement
Explain
Case StudiesField Surveys
Statistical AnalysisSocial Network
Analysis
Academic emphasisRemote Sensing
Evidentiary Reasoning
Red TeamingGaming
Network Analysis
Modeling & Simulation
Intelligence/security Analysts
![Page 28: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
SummaryComplex adaptive systems
– Are wicked, purposeful, and unpredictable– Are not the only kinds of systems desired– Develop structure to serve function
• Can be understood by observing structure• Can be shaped by their structure• Emergent behavior can be anticipated/measured using
structural metrics
– Co-evolve with other CAS– Create new CAS
![Page 30: Complex Adaptive Systems and Communities](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042515/54c0bd304a7959ff6d8b4616/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)