Complete November 11, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables
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Transcript of Complete November 11, 2011 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables
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Marist College Institute for Public OpinionPoughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111www.maristpoll.marist.edu
Romney Edges GOP ContendersGingrich and Cain Battle for Second
*** Complete Tables for Poll Appended ***
For Immediate Release: Friday, November 11, 2011
Contact: Lee M. Miringoff
Barbara L. Carvalho
Mary E. Azzoli
Marist College
845.575.5050
This McClatchy-Marist Poll Reports:
In this national McClatchy-Marist Poll, Newt Gingrich has joined the top tier of candidates
vying for the 2012 Republican nomination for president.
Among Republican and Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:
23% for Mitt Romney
19% for Newt Gingrich
17% for Herman Cain
10% for Ron Paul
8% for Rick Perry 5% for Michele Bachmann
1% for Jon Huntsman
1% for Rick Santorum
17% are undecided
The race for the GOP nomination has taken yet another dramatic turn, says Dr. Lee M.
Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. Now, the top tier is
crowded as Newt Gingrich has taken his place alongside Mitt Romney and Herman Cain.
Could anyone imagine a more unsettled contest?
The race is still very fluid. Only 30% of Republicans and Republican leaning independentsare firmly committed to their choice of candidate while 42% somewhat support their pick. A
notable 28% say they might cast their ballot for someone else.
When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in September, an identical 30% said they
strongly supported their candidate while nearly four in ten -- 39% -- were somewhat in their
candidates corner, and 31% thought they might change their mind.
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Page 2 of 3
Looking at the support of the top tier candidates, 43% of Gingrichs backers say they are
firmly committed to their choice of candidate. This compares with 31% of Republicans and
Republican leaning independents who are behind Cain and 30% of Romneys supporters
who have a similar level of support for their pick.
Shared Values, Experience Most Important Candidate Qualities
33% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents think a candidate who shares
their values is key when deciding who to support while 27% believe experience is most
important. About one in four Republicans and Republican leaning independents -- 23% --
say a candidate who is closest to them on the issues passes their litmus test while 13%
believe electability is the most important quality a candidate should have. Four percent are
unsure.
There has been little change on this question since September. At that time, 35% said
shared values topped their list while 26% thought experience mattered most. One in five --
20% -- wanted a candidate who was closest to them on the issues, and 17% thought the
ability to defeat President Obama was key. Two percent, then, were unsure.
Key points:
22% of those who believe shared values are key back Romney while 21% support
Cain.
Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents who think experience
matters most, Gingrich receives the backing of 25% compared with 20% for Romney.
Looking at Republicans and Republican leaning independents who favor a candidatewho is closest to them on the issues, Romney receives the support of 28% while
Gingrich takes 21%.
Romney garners the support of 26% who want a candidate who can defeat President
Barack Obama in next years general election, and Gingrich is backed by 23% of
these voters.
Amid Sexual Harassment Allegations, About Seven in Ten Want Cain to Stay in Race
What impact are the accusations of sexual harassment having on Cains candidacy? 69%
of Republicans and Republican leaning independents dont think Cain should drop out of the
race while 22% believe he should. Nine percent are unsure.
However, Cains reputation hasnt been cleared in the court of public opinion. While 29% of
Republicans and Republican leaning independents believe Cain didnt do anything wrong,
34% think he did something unethical but not illegal. And, 11% go as far as to say his
actions were against the law. A notable 26% are unsure.
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And, although nearly half -- 48% -- thinks the sexual harassment accusations lobbed at Cain
are mostly being made to ruin his reputation, 28% believe they are based in fact. 24% are
unsure.
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How the Survey was Conducted
Nature of the Sample: National Poll of 1,026 Adults
This survey of 1,026 adults was conducted on November 8th through November 10th, 2011. Adults 18
years of age and older residing in the continental United States were interviewed by telephone.
Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout thenation. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its
population. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached
through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are
statistically significant within 3.0 percentage points. There are 872 registered voters. The results for
this subset are statistically significant within 3.5 percentage points. There are 347 Republicans and
Republican leaning independents. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 5.5
percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.
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Nature of the Sample: Adults & Registered Voters
National Adults
National
Registered Voters
Col % Col %
100%85% 100%
Democrat n/a 35%
Republican n/a 26%
Independent n/a 37%
Other n/a 2%
Support Tea Par ty Yes n/a 25%
Very liberal n/a 4%
Liberal n/a 16%
Moderate n/a 38%
Conservative n/a 32%
Very conservative n/a 10%
Northeast 18% 19%Midwest 22% 23%
South 37% 37%
West 23% 22%
Less than $50,000 49% 47%
$50,000 or more 51% 53%
White 73% 76%
African American 9% 10%
Latino 10% 8%
Other 7% 7%
White 73% 76%
Non-white 27% 24%
Under 45 32% 27%45 or older 68% 73%
Millennials (18-30) 18% 13%
Gen X (31-46) 18% 17%
Baby Boomers (47-65) 37% 40%
Silent-Greatest (Over 65) 27% 31%
Men 49% 48%
Women 51% 52%
Landline 75% 79%
Cell Phone 25% 21%
Party Identification
Polit ical Ideology
Marist Poll National Adults: Interviews conducted November 8th through 10th, 2011,
N=1046 MOE +/- 3%. Marist P oll National Registered Voters: N=872 MOE +/- 3.5%.
Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Interview Type
Household Income
Race
Race
Age
Generation
Gender
National AdultsRegistered Voters
Region
Nature of the Sample
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Nature of the Sample: Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents
Republicans and
Republican
leaning
independents
Col %
100%
Republican 65%
Independent 35%
Support T ea Party Yes 47%
Less than $50,000 43%
$50,000 or more 57%
Under 45 23%
45 or older 77%
Men 50%
Women 50%
Gender
Marist Poll National Republicans and Republican Leaning
Independents: Int erviews conducted November 8th through 10t h,
2011, N=347 MOE +/- 5.5%. Totals may not add to 100% due to
rounding.
Republicans and Republican leaning independents
Party Identification
Household Income
Age
Nature of the Sample
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2012 Republican Presidential PrimaryAsked of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents
Question Wording: If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were heldtoday, whom would you support if the candidates are:
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US101115/2012%20Prospects/Definitely_Vote_For_or_Against_President_Obama_in_2012.htmhttp://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US101115/2012%20Prospects/Definitely_Vote_For_or_Against_President_Obama_in_2012.htmhttp://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US101115/2012%20Prospects/Definitely_Vote_For_or_Against_President_Obama_in_2012.htm -
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Intensityof SupportAsked of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents
Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support , somewhat support, or do you think you might vote differently in your primary or caucus?
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US101115/2012%20Prospects/Definitely_Vote_For_or_Against_President_Obama_in_2012.htmhttp://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US101115/2012%20Prospects/Definitely_Vote_For_or_Against_President_Obama_in_2012.htmhttp://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US101115/2012%20Prospects/Definitely_Vote_For_or_Against_President_Obama_in_2012.htm -
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MostImportant Quality in a Republican NomineeAsked of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents
Question Wording: Which one of the following qualities is most important to you in deciding who tosupport for the Republican presidential nomination? A candidate who:
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US101115/2012%20Prospects/Definitely_Vote_For_or_Against_President_Obama_in_2012.htmhttp://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US101115/2012%20Prospects/Definitely_Vote_For_or_Against_President_Obama_in_2012.htmhttp://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US101115/2012%20Prospects/Definitely_Vote_For_or_Against_President_Obama_in_2012.htm -
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Should Herman Cain Drop Out of the Race?Asked of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents
Question Wording: Do you think Herman Cain should drop out of the race for president, or not?
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Views on Herman Cains ActionsAsked of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents
Question Wording: Thinking about the allegations of sexual harassment brought against HermanCain do you think Herman Cain did something illegal, something unethical but not illegal, or he didnothing wrong?
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Motivation for the Sexual Harassment Accusations against Herman CainAsked of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents
Question Wording: Do you believe the accusations of sexual harassment against Herman Cain: