Company Presentation · This presentation, including the accompanying oral presentation...

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Company Presentation May 2015

Transcript of Company Presentation · This presentation, including the accompanying oral presentation...

Company Presentation

May 2015

Forward-Looking Statements

2

This presentation, including the accompanying oral presentation (collectively, this “presentation”), does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy anysecurities. This presentation is provided by On Deck Capital, Inc. (“OnDeck”) for informational purposes only. No representations express or implied are being made byOnDeck or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein.

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and other legal authority. Forward-looking statements include statements about scalability, growing distribution channels, credit predictability and information concerning our future financial performance,business plans and objectives, potential growth opportunities, financing plans, competitive position, industry environment and potential market opportunities. Forward-looking statements can also be identified by words such as "will," "enables," "expects," "allows," "continues," "believes," "anticipates," "estimates" or similar expressions.Forward-looking statements are neither historical facts nor assurances of future performance. They are based only on our current beliefs, expectations and assumptionsregarding the future of our business, anticipated events and trends, the economy and other future conditions. Moreover, we do not assume responsibility for the accuracyand completeness of forward-looking statements. As such, they are subject to inherent uncertainties, changes in circumstances, known and unknown risks and otherfactors that are difficult to predict and in many cases outside our control.

As a result, you should not rely on any forward-looking statements. Our expected results may not be achieved, and actual results may differ materially from ourexpectations. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements are the risks that we may not be able to manage our anticipatedor actual growth effectively, that our credit models do not adequately identify potential risks, and other risks, including those under the heading “Risk Factors” in our AnnualReport on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and in other documents that we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, from time to timewhich are available on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements for any reason after the date of thispresentation to conform these statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations, except as required by law.

In addition to the U.S. GAAP financial information, this presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. We believe that non-GAAP measures can provideuseful supplemental information for period-to-period comparisons of our core business and is useful to investors and others in understanding and evaluating our operatingresults. These non-GAAP measures have not been calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP. You should not consider them in isolation or as a substitute for an analysis ofour results under U.S. GAAP. There are a number of limitations related to the use of these non-GAAP measures versus their nearest GAAP equivalents. For example,neither Adjusted EBITDA nor Adjusted Net (Loss) Income is a substitute for Net (Loss) Income. In addition, other companies may calculate non-GAAP financial measuresdifferently or may use other measures to evaluate their performance, all of which could reduce the usefulness of our non-GAAP financial measures as tools for comparison.Adjusted EBITDA excludes some recurring costs, including interest expense associated with debt used for corporate purposes, non-cash stock-based compensation,depreciation and amortization expense and fair value adjustment for our warrant liability. Therefore Adjusted EBITDA does not reflect interest expense, the non-cashimpact of stock-based compensation or working capital needs that will continue for the foreseeable future. Adjusted Net (Loss) Income excludes stock-based compensationexpense and warrant liability fair value adjustment which will continue for the foreseeable future and therefore will generally be more favorable than Net (Loss) Incomedetermined in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to the Non-GAAP Reconciliations at the end of this presentation for a description of these non-GAAP measures and areconciliation to Net (Loss) Income.

OnDeck Powers the Growth of Small Businesses Through Lending and Technology Innovation

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Card Quest Inc.

Shannon Schofield

Mojito Maintenance

Dan Gonzalo

Furry Tales Doggy Daycare

Lena Botwright

J.a.m.b.s Jewelry

Mark S. Desrochers

Seasons

Gerald Palumbo

$2 Billion+ total originations

Scalable financial model

5th Generation proprietary credit scoring model

30,000+ small business served

73 net promoter score

150%+ y-o-y originations growth in 2014

A Leading Online Platform for Small Business Lending

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459

1,158

227416

2013 2014 Q1 '14 Q1 '15

Originations$MM

65

158

2956

2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15

Gross Revenue$MM

Investment Highlights

5

Massive and underserved market

Proprietary analytics and scoring models

Integrated and scalable technology platform

Diversified customer acquisition channels

Robust funding platform

Experienced management team

Attractive financial profile

Small Business Lending Market is Massive and Underserved

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Sources: U.S. SBA, FDIC, Oliver Wyman, How “New-Form Lending” Will Shape Banks’ Small Business Strategies, 2013

1. As of 03/31/2015; Loans under management represents the unpaid principal balance plus the amount of principal outstanding for loans held for sale, excluding net deferred origination costs, plus the amount of principal outstanding of term loans the company serviced for others, each at the end of the period.

$80-120Bn

Unmet

Demand for Small

Business Lines

of Credit

$0.7Bn

OnDeck Loans Under

Management1

$80-120BnUnmet

Demand for Small

Business Lines

of Credit

$180BnBusiness Loan

Balances Under

$250,000 in

the U.S.

in Q4 ꞌ14

28MMU.S. Small Businesses

OnDeck Unique Small

Businesses Served

30K

Credit Card Rev. Cash Rev. Monthly Exp. Inventory & Payroll

Landscaping Rev. Snow Removal Rev. Monthly Exp. Fuel & Payroll

Repair Rev. Subcontractor Rev. Monthly Exp. Supplies & Payroll

• Diverse businesses require

manual underwriting

• Technology and data

limitations

• Lack of standardized small

business credit score

Diversity of Small Businesses Creates Challenges for Traditional Lenders…

CHALLENGES FOR

TRADITIONAL LENDERS

Cash Flow ProfileRestaurant

Landscaping Company

Plumbing Company

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

…Leading to a Frustrating Borrowing Experience for Small Businesses

FRUSTRATIONS FOR

SMALL BUSINESSES

• Time consuming offline process

• Non-tailored credit assessment

• Product mismatch

• Rigid collateral requirements

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The OnDeck Score®

Proprietary and Purpose Built for Small Business

100+ external data sources

5th Generationproprietary credit scoring model

10 Million+ small businesses in proprietary database

2,000+ data points per application

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Score

A

B

C

D

E

Ris

k G

rad

ing

• Probabilistic record linkage

• Dimensionality reduction

• Ensemble learning

• Exhaustive cross validation

• Feature engineering

• Adaptive learning

Proprietary Data

Analysis Platform

Public

RecordsCredit

Data

Social

Data

Proprietary

Data

Transactional

Data

Accounting

DataF

Acceptance Rate (%)

OnDeck Score Personal Credit Score Random

Resulting in Funding Significantly More

Loans for the Same Risk…

More Accurate than the Personal Credit Score

at Predicting Bad Credit Risk1…

We Rely on the OnDeck Score for Greater Accuracy, Predictability and Access

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1. Analysis on OnDeck Score v5 using actual OnDeck loan performance data.

90%

100%

0%

100% 40% 20% 10% 0%

% o

f D

efa

ults E

limin

ate

d

10%

10

20

40

Random Personal CreditScore

OnDeck Score

Online Minutes1

Automated Review As Fast As Immediately3

As Fast As Same Day

The OnDeck Solution for Small Business Lending

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1. Application time depends on customer having the required documentation available.

2. Source: Small business survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Spring 2014

3. Approximately 1/3 of customers are subjected to secondary, manual review process.

FundApproveApply

Offline33 Hours2

Manual ReviewWeeks or Months

Several Days

Traditional

Lending

Use Case

Size $5,000 – $250,000 $5,000 – $25,000

Term 3 – 24 months 6 months

Pricing1 Average monthly “cents-on-dollar” of 2.15¢

Average 49% APRAverage 36% APR

Payment Automated daily or weekly payments Automated weekly payments

Availability Renewal opportunity at ~50% paid down Draw on-demand

Tailored Products for Small Businesses

1. Based on Q1 ꞌ15.

Term Loan(Launched in 2007)

Line of Credit(Launched in September 2013)

HiringNewStaff

Buying Inventory

Marketing Managing Cash Flow

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7.5 YearsMedian Time in Business

$570,000Median Annual Revenue

700+Industries

30,000+Small Businesses Served

in all 50 U.S. states

Established and Diverse Customer Base

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Online

Customer

Experience

Data

Aggregation,

Analytics

and Scoring

Technology

Powered

Servicing &

Collections

Integrated and Scalable Technology Platform

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$2 Billion+Total Originations

50,000+Total Loans

5 Million+Customer Payments

Diversified and Growing Distribution Channels

Numbers represent loan units.

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1,276

5,758

14,920

2012 2013 2014

Direct

3,7315,955

8,131

2012 2013 2014

Funding

Advisors

Strategic

Partners

77%

23%

Direct and Strategic Partners Funding Advisors

Channel Mix 1Q 2015

4371,346

3,870

2012 2013 2014

Robust Funding Platform

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Funding mix is shown as of March 31, 2015 based on the outstanding debt by funding source and Marketplace unpaid principal balance.

Securitization

Warehouse

Lines

OnDeck

Marketplace® Diversified

Scalable

Durable

Low-cost

Capital-efficient

5.5%

9.0%

6.4%4.4%

5.5%6.9% 6.7%

3.7%

0.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net Charge-offs by Cohort1

Consistent Portfolio Performance Over Time

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1. Percentage of dollars loaned that are charged off.

2. As of 03/31/15, principal balance still outstanding was 0% for all cohorts except the 2013, 2014 and 2015 cohorts, which had principal outstanding of 0.7%, 27.2% and 87.8%, respectively.

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Growth Strategy

Brand and direct

marketing

Strategic partnerships

Data and analytics

Product expansion

Extend customer

lifetime value

International expansion

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Industry Leading Management Team and Investors

Noah

Breslow

CEO

James

Hobson

COO

Paul

Rosen

Sales

Howard

Katzenberg

CFO

Zhengyuan

Lu

Capital Markets

Krishna

Venkatraman

Data & Analytics

Pamela

Rice

Technology

Cynthia

Chen

Risk

Andrea

Gellert

Marketing

Management Team Team Experience

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Board of Directors

James Robinson IIIRRE VenturesAmerican Express

David HartwigSapphire Ventures

Sandy MillerInstitutional Venture Partners

Jane J. ThompsonWalmart Financial ServicesCFPB Advisory Board

Neil WolfsonSF Capital Group

Ron VerniSage Software

Financial Highlights

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Capital light funding model

Compelling customer lifetime value

Rapid growth

Demonstrated operating leverage

173

459

1,158

227

416

2012 2013 2014 Q1 '14 Q1 '15

Rapid Originations Growth

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($MM)

($MM)

Strong Gross Revenue Growth

22

26

65

158

29

56

2012 2013 2014 Q1 '14 Q1 '15

Loan

Profit

Revenues Expenses

Illustrative Loan Economics

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=

Origination Fee

Interest Income

Losses

Funding Costs

Processing and Servicing

Acquisition

-

Customers Acquired in Q1ꞌ13

• Average 2.4 loans per customer in 9 quarters

• $3.7MM in interest still outstanding

($MM)

Compelling Customer Lifetime Value

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1. Includes upfront internal and external commissions as well as direct marketing expenses.

2. Contribution is defined to include interest income and fees collected on initial and repeat loans, less acquisition costs for repeat loans, less the following items for both initial and repeat loans: estimated third party processing and servicing expenses, estimated funding costs (excluding any cost of equity capital) and charge offs. For this purpose, processing and servicing expenses are estimated based on the mix of new and renewal originations and outstanding principal balances.

3. Figures may not foot due to rounding.

3.2x+ROI

after

9 quarters

or

$16.2Return3

$5.0Investment

Q1 ꞌ13

$5.0

$2.8

$1.9

$1.5

$1.1

$1.4

Acquisition

Cost1Contribution2 +2Q +3Q +4Q +5Q +6Q

$1.6

+7Q

$3.7

$1.4

+8Q

$0.9

+9Q

2.2xROI

To Date

Loans per Customer1

Direct & Strategic Partner Channels Driving Higher Returns

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Annualized ROA3

2.8

2.4

2.0

Direct /StrategicPartner

All Channels FundingAdvisor

24%

23%

22%

Direct /StrategicPartner

All Channels FundingAdvisor

Customers Acquired in Q1 ꞌ13

1. Average number of loans

2. Total cash interest and origination fee collected divided by the quarterly average Unpaid Principal Balance, or UPB, outstanding of the cohort from inception though Q1 2015. Average UPB is calculated by averaging UPB at inception with UPB at the last day of each quarter in the 9 quarter period.

3. Annualized Return on Assets, or “ROA,” for the cohort over the 9 quarters from Q1 2013 through Q1 2015. Annualized ROA is defined as Cumulative Net Return on an annualized basis divided by the average UPB outstanding of the cohort from inception through Q1 2015. Cumulative Net Return equals cumulative Contribution including Acquisition Cost as defined on prior slides. Average UPB is calculated as descripted in the prior footnote.

54%60%

65%

Direct /StrategicPartner

All Channels FundingAdvisor

Cash Yield2

Annualized ROA2

Economies of Scale Driving Higher Returns

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ROI on Acquisition Cost

Customers Acquired in Q1 ꞌ13 and Q1’14 Through 5 Quarters

• At comparable seasoning points, Q1’14 shows improved returns despite lower pricing

20%

23%

21%

22%

2013 2014 2013 2014

1.9x

2.9x

2.2x

2.5x

2013 2014 2013 2014

Direct /Strategic All ChannelsDirect /Strategic All Channels

Cash Yield1

61%

52%

67%

61%

2013 2014 2013 2014

Direct /Strategic All Channels

1. Total cash interest and origination fee collected divided by the quarterly average Unpaid Principal Balance, or UPB, outstanding of the cohort from inception though the first 5 quarters of the cohort. Average UPB is calculated by averaging UPB at inception with UPB at the last day of each quarter in the 5 quarter period.

2. Annualized Return on Assets, or “ROA,” for the cohort over the first 5 quarters of the cohort life. Annualized ROA is defined as Cumulative Net Return on an annualized basis divided by the average UPB outstanding of the cohort from inception through the first 5 quarters of the cohort life. Cumulative Net Return equals cumulative Contribution including Acquisition Cost as defined on prior slides. Average UPB is calculated as descripted in the prior footnote.

81%

61%

54%

2012 2013 2014

Cost of Revenue Operating Expenses

84%

68%

51%

2012 2013 2014

Provision for Loan LossesFunding CostsSales & Marketing Technology & Analytics

Processing & Servicing General & Administrative

Demonstrated Operating Leverage

Figures are based on a percentage of gross revenue.

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Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Loss

See appendix for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures.

($16.3)

($0.2)

($5.8)

($1.8)

($20.2)

($4.6)

($6.9)

($3.3)

Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted Net Loss

2013 2014 Q1 ꞌ14 Q1 ꞌ15

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Investment Highlights

29

Massive and underserved market

Proprietary analytics and scoring models

Integrated and scalable technology platform

Diversified customer acquisition channels

Robust funding platform

Experienced management team

Attractive financial profile

APPENDIX

1

Customers Acquired in Q1ꞌ14

• Q1‘14 cohort outperforming Q1 ‘13 with an ROI of 2.5x

after 5 quarters

($MM)

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1. Includes upfront internal and external commissions as well as direct marketing expenses.

2. Contribution is defined to include interest income and fees collected on initial and repeat loans, less acquisition costs for repeat loans, less the following items for both initial and repeat loans: estimated third party processing and servicing expenses, estimated funding costs (excluding any cost of equity capital) and charge offs. For this purpose, processing and servicing expenses are estimated based on the mix of new and renewal originations and outstanding principal balances.

3. Figures may not foot due to rounding.

Q1 ꞌ14

$12.2$9.1

$4.2

Acquisition

Cost1Contribution2 +2Q +3Q +4Q +5Q

2.5x+ROI

after

5 quarters

or

$30.5Return3

$12.2Investment

To Date

$9.7

$4.2

$3.4

Customer Lifetime Value Has Increased Q1’14 vs Q1’13

Adjusted EBITDAYear Ended

December 31,

Three Months Ended

March 31,

(000s) 2013 2014 2014 2015

Net (Loss) Income ($24,356) ($18,708) ($13,717) ($5,343)

Adjustments:

Corporate Interest Expense 1,276 398 157 106

Income Tax Expense – – – –

Depreciation and Amortization 2,645 4,071 878 1,378

Stock-Based Compensation Expense 438 2,842 233 2,042

Warrant Liability Fair Value Adjustment 3,739 11,232 6,632 –

Adjusted EBITDA ($16,258) ($165) ($5,817) ($1,817)

Appendix: Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

Adjusted EBITDA represents our net income (loss), adjusted to exclude interest expense associated with debt used for corporate purposes (rather than funding costs associated with lending activities), income tax expense, depreciation and amortization, stock-based compensation expense and warrant liability fair value adjustment. EBITDA is impacted by changes from period to period in the fair value of the liability related to preferred stock warrants. Management believes that adjusting EBITDA to eliminate the impact of the changes in fair value of these warrants is useful to analyze the operating performance of the business, unaffected by changes in the fair value of preferred stock warrants which are not relevant to the ongoing operations of the business. All such preferred stock warrants converted to common stock warrants upon initial our initial public offering in December 2014.

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Adjusted Net LossYear Ended

December 31,

Three Months Ended

March 31,

(000s) 2013 2014 2014 2015

Net Loss ($24,356) ($18,708) ($13,717) ($5,343)

Adjustments:

Stock-Based Compensation Expense 438 2,842 233 2,042

Warrant Liability Fair Value Adjustment 3,739 11,232 6,632 –

Adjusted Net Loss ($20,179) ($4,634) ($6,852) ($3,301)

Appendix: Non-GAAP Adjusted Loss Reconciliation

Adjusted net loss represents our net income (loss) adjusted to exclude stock-based compensation expense and warrant liability fair value adjustment, each on the same basis and with the same limitations as described before for Adjusted EBITDA.

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