Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are...

35
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Company Initiation Old Chang Kee Company Results China Aviation Oil DBS Group Holdings iFAST Corporation SIA Engineering Company 7 Nov 16, 8.15am/11.15am Morning Call/Webinar

Transcript of Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are...

Page 1: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Company Initiation

Old Chang Kee

Company Results

China Aviation Oil

DBS Group Holdings

iFAST Corporation

SIA Engineering Company

7 Nov 16, 8.15am/11.15am Morning Call/Webinar

Page 2: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

2

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (“PSPL”) has no reason to

believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this

presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or

warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any

such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the

information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be

liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made

available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.

This presentation is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or

particular needs of any particular person.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment

objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products.

Page 3: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Old Chang Kee Ltd.

(SGX: 5ML)

Puffing up capacity and margins

Soh Lin SIn

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

7 November 2016

Sub-Brands:

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

4

Previous Close (4th Nov 2016) : $0.715

Target Price : $0.98 (“Buy”)

Forecasted Dividend (FY17) : 3.0 Cents (Dividend yield 4.2%)

52-week range : $0.61 – $0.74

Market Capitalisation : $86.78 billion

OCK Snapshot

Source: Bloomberg

Page 5: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

5

Completion of factory redevelopment targeted for 1QFY18F

Additional product lines at better margins to drive earnings

Expect earnings to grow 8.9% CAGR over the next three years, i.e.

FY19F PATMI to surge 29% from FY16

Inorganic and organic growth through new stores and higher same store

sales

Improved free cash flow profile post-consolidation could lead to higher

dividends

Competitive advantage are difficult for competitors to replicate

Perceived product differentiation through a trusted brand; and

Operating scale and technical skills

Old Chang Kee (BUY, TP: S$0.98, Last: S$0.715)

Page 6: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

6

Principally engaged in the manufacture and sale of Halal-

certified food products of consistent quality under the

brand name “Old Chang Kee”

Signature product is the well-known Old Chang Kee

curry puff

Currently has more than 30 food products

Offers breakfast items and local delights meals at

selected retail outlets

Also owns other subsidiary brands such as Take 5, Curry

Times, Bun Times, Mushroom Cafe, and Dip ‘n’ Go

Listed on the SGX Catalist board on 16 Jan 2008, with an

IPO of 25mn new shares at S$0.20

Company Background

Source: Company website

Page 7: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

7

Ramping up production capacity and

margins

With only its original factory facility at 2

Woodlands Terrace, SSSG has been

stagnating at 1-2% due to resources

constraint

Acquired 2 factory facilities in 2011/12

(i) Iskandar Malaysia

(ii) 4 Woodlands Terrace (“New Factory”)

Construction works for both new factory

facilities have been fully completed in

FY16 and have commenced operations

Old brand, New strategy

Calendar Year Example of new flavours/ products

2014

2015

2016

Source: Company

Same Store Sales

Source: Company, PSR est.

0.6%

1.3%

2.2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

820

830

840

850

860

870

880

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

(S$'000)Same store sales Growth (%)

Page 8: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

8

NOW, reconstructing its original factory facility at 2 Woodlands Terrace to

be fully integrated with the adjacent New Factory

Expected to complete in June 2017 (1QFY18)

Expected to increase capacity by 60%, from 50,000 puffs/day to 80,000

puffs/day

Additional production space (almost double) to provide additional

capacity for its product innovations

Expect higher SSSG, driven by (i) new flavours, and (ii) new products

Expect margins improvement, benefitting from (i) economies of scale

and higher productivity from the new machines, and (ii) more higher

margin products to be rolled out

Integrated factory to drive SSSG and margins

Page 9: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

9

Factory facilities at Woodlands Terrace (as of Jul-16)

The enlarged food facilities both in Singapore and Iskandar Malaysia should

bode well with its strategy to expand operations, introduce new lines of food

products, and to grow its business both locally and regionally

Source: www.google.com.sg/maps

4 Woodlands Terrace (New Factory) Original 2 Woodlands Terrace (under reconstruction)

Page 10: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

10

Higher SSSG driven by more product offerings

New flavours of puffs (core product, >30%

of total sales)

Expect to boost sales volume 3-10% higher

New products and Ready Meals with

higher price point and higher margins

Could increase per-ticket averages and fetch

higher margins compared the other OCK

products

With new flavours and products inducing higher

SSSG, coupled with improved margins from

realisation of manufacturing efficiencies, we

expect earnings to grow 8.9% CAGR over the

next three years, i.e. FY19F PATMI to surge

29% from FY16

Target a new product/flavour every 2-3 months

Source: Company website

Page 11: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

11

Growing demand for takeaway and convenience foods

According to the latest Household Expenditure Survey 2012/13 by the Ministry

of Trade & Industry, between 2002/03 and 2012/13:

OCK offers wide range of affordable food products which cost around S$1

to S$2 each; and the “grab-and-go” ready foods fit well in the bustling

city lifestyle

Favourable trend underpins OCK’s new strategy

918 1,1691,734

798949

1,188615

700

811

449

383

399

195

235

310

171

218

261

172

210

217

127

143

156

353

426

695

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2002/03 2007/08 2012/13

Housing and Related Expenditure FoodTransport Recreation and CultureEducational Services HealthCommunication Clothing and FootwearOthers

3.5% p.a.4.6% p.a.

Source: SingStat

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2002/03 2007/08 2012/13

Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Food Serving Services

Source: SingStat

Average Monthly Household Expenditure (S$) Average Monthly Household Expenditure on Food

Page 12: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

12

Yet to reach market saturation with a total of 77 OCK retail outlets

No targeted store count

Provide more access points for impulsive buying; even at the same mall

or area where it already has presence in

Increasing store count to capture growing demand

OCK retail outlets

Source: www.streetdirectory.com

Two adjacent OCK retail outlets at Choa Chu Kang

Source: www.google.com.sg/maps

Page 13: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

13

Current retail scene of more conversion of retail shops into F&B outlets

and suburban mall makeovers, offer opportunities for OCK to expand

store count as well as store space

More than 50% of OCK retail outlets in Singapore are based in shopping

malls

Could draw higher footfall post-renovations, thus potentially translate to

higher sales

Present opportunities to move to bigger store space to accommodate a

seating area for dine-in customers, or convert into a 2-in-1 concept store

2-in-1 concept combines an OCK store with one of its sub-brands

Optimises manpower and resources (store space and kitchen area)

Enhances OCK’s visibility and also opens up more avenues for OCK to

open new stores

Favourable macro trend offers opportunities

Page 14: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

14

Increasing free cash flows can sustain dividend payout above 60%, which

could translate to 5.6% dividend yield from FY19F onwards

No fixed dividend policy, but has track record of paying dividends every

year since listing

Currently has c.S$6 mn outstanding CapEx to be funded via bank loan,

net cash position of S$11.1 mn as at end-FY16; expect no big ticket

CapEx after the completion of its new integrated factory by 1QFY18

Potentially higher dividend from FY19F onwards

Dividend Per Share (SGD Cents) and Payout Ratio (%)

Source: Company, PSR est.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Ordinary Special

Payout ratio (%) Payout ratio, ordinary (%)

Free Cash Flow

Source: Company, PSR est.

(2,000)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

FY14: Commenced construction works for

new factory facilities

Page 15: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

15

Strong brand name recognition, which also allows OCK to charge a

premium for its products

One of the Best Fast-Food Chains in the World by Travel+Leisure in 2012

Influential Brands Awards as the Top Brand under the F&B Kiosk category

for 2013, 2014, 2015

No. 2 Best Curry Puff in Singapore in The Sunday Times on 5 July 2015

Economies of scale and technical skills

Central kitchen to processes raw materials and produces a range of pastes,

powder, pastry dough and filling, as well as packaged food

Pervasive market penetration through its network of 77 conveniently-

located retail outlets

Enviable distribution network also further fortifies its brand recognition

Diversified customer base

Halal-certification

Economic moats

Page 16: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

16

SSSG +2.5% in FY17-18F and +3.0% in FY19F onwards

New integrated factory (targeted to complete by 1QFY18) will provide the

necessary capacity for new product offerings and improve margins

One net store opening for each year from FY18F onwards

Assumptions

Same Store Sales

Source: Company, PSR est.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

920

940

960

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F

(S$'000)Same store sales Growth (%)

Retail store outlets: Revenue and store count

Source: Company, PSR est.

70

75

80

85

90

95

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F

Revenue No. of outlets

Page 17: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

17

Margins improvement from:

Productivity and operating efficiency; and

Change of product mix: Introduction of more high-value products (e.g.

Ready Meals)

Assumptions

Gross Margin

Source: Company, PSR est.

62.2%62.4%

63.1% 63.1%

63.5%

64.0%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F

EBITDA and Net Margins

Source: Company, PSR est.

17.4%16.6%

15.8% 15.9% 15.9%16.9%

8.7%7.4% 6.7% 6.6% 6.7%

7.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F

EBITDA Net

Page 18: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

18

Operating expenses to normalise to c.54% of revenue on easier property

and labour markets

Improved margins to lift FY19 earnings growth back to near FY14’s level at

c.20%

Assumptions

Costs % Revenue

Source: Company, PSR est.

36.8%38.9%

40.9% 41.0% 41.0% 40.0%

14.7% 14.3% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F

Selling and distribution expenses

Administrative expenses

Revenue, EBITDA and PATMI Growth (%)

Source: Company, PSR est.

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F

Revenue EBITDA Net

Page 19: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

19

Maintaining negative cash conversion cycle (5-yr historical avg. at -68 days)

Increasing cash flow and normalised CapEx, dividends to increase from 3.0

cents in FY18F to 4.0 cents in FY19F, translating to a 5.6% yield

Assumptions

15M2012 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F

Days Inventory Outstanding 10 13 10 8 8 8 8 8

Days Sales Outstanding 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Days Payable Outstanding 64 75 79 78 84 85 80 80

Cash Conversion Cycle (52) (60) (69) (70) (75) (76) (71) (71)

Source: Company, PSR est.

Cash Conversion Cycle

Dividend Per Share (SGD Cents) and Payout Ratio (%)

Source: Company, PSR est.

30%

69%

146%

71% 68%

76%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0Ordinary Special Payout ratio (%)

Dividend Yield (%)

Source: Company, PSR est.

1.7%

3.8%

7.5%

4.5% 4.2%

5.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Page 20: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

20

DCF valuation of S$0.98

New production facilities increases

capacity and would improve productivity as

well as operating efficiencies

New product offerings would improve its

product mix

Growing store count underpinned by

favourable macro environment

Potentially higher dividend payout, which

could translate to c.5.6% yield from FY19F

onwards

Item WACC Target

A Share price (as of 4-Nov-16) 0.71

B No. of shares ('000) 121,375

A x B = C Market capitalisation (S$ '000) 86,176

D Total debt (S$ '000) 13,121

C + D = E Total market value (S$ '000) 99,297

C / E Equity ratio 87%

D / E Debt ratio 13%

Cost of debt

Interest rate 1.3%

Tax rate 17.0%

After-tax interest 1.1%

Cost of equity

Risk free rate 2.0%

Market risk premium 6.5%

Beta 0.8

Cost of equity 7.2%

WACC 6.4%

Terminal growth rate 1.0%

Item Financials (S$'000)

Year FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e FY21e

OCF 9,538 10,017 11,513 12,056 12,537

Capex (7,770) (5,243) (5,461) (5,686) (5,920)

Interest expense * (1-t) 257 200 208 145 75

FCFF 2,026 4,973 6,260 6,514 6,692

Terminal value 125,362

PV 1,904 4,394 5,199 5,084 96,877

F Firm value 113,457

G Add: Net Cash/ (Debt) 5,314

H Less: Minority Interest 0

F + G - H = I Equity value 118,772

J No. of shares ('000) 121,375

I / J Fair value/share (S$) 0.98

Cash Flow

DCF Sensitivity

0.5% 1.0% 1.5%

5.40% 1.10$ 1.20$ 1.33$

6.40% 0.91$ 0.98$ 1.06$

7.40% 0.78$ 0.82$ 0.88$

WACC%

Assumed Perpetual Growth %

Scenario analysis

FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e FY21e TP (DCF)

2.5% 3.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.05$

2.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.98$

2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.96$ Bear case scenario

SSSG (%)

Bull case scenario

Base case scenario

Page 21: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

21

Valuation

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16

Source: Bloomberg, PSR est.OCK

STI (Rebased)

Catalist Index (Rebased)

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Source: Bloomberg, PSR est.

-1 std. dev.

+1 std. dev.

5-yr avg.

Market rerated OCK when it

commenced its construction

projects for the two newly

acquired factories in FY14

Realisation of the manufacturing

productivity and efficiency could

lead to a further rerating catalyst

for the stock

Page 22: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

22

Despite its smaller operating scale, OCK has higher than peers average’s

margins, dividend yield and return on equity (ROE)

OCK currently trades at a 17.3x FY16 PER, which is c.30% discount to its

Singapore packaged food peers’ 24.8x

Peer Comparison

ComparablesBloomberg

Ticker Company FYE

Mkt Cap

(SGD mn)

EV

(SGD mn)

Gorss

Margin

Operating

Margin

Net

Margin

P/E

TTM

P/E

FY1 P/B

Div Yield

(%)

Div Yield

FY1 (%)

Net D/E

(%) ROE (%)

OCK SP Old Chang Kee Ltd 03/2016 86 74 63 10.1 6.7 17.3 N/A 2.5 8.5 N/A Net Cash 14.6

Simple Average (Excl. OCK) 39 4.1 -1.0 24.8 18.1 2.1 4.3 3.6 38.3 -7.3

ABR SP ABR Holdings Ltd 12/2015 139 59 46 9.3 7.6 18.3 N/A 1.4 3.6 N/A Net Cash 7.8

QAF SP QAF Ltd 12/2015 744 736 47 7.0 5.3 10.3 10.2 1.6 3.8 N/A Net Cash 16.7

BREAD SP BreadTalk Group Ltd 12/2015 281 392 53 5.6 1.2 34.5 22.2 2.2 2.9 1.8 68.0 5.6

AP SP Auric Pacific Group Ltd 12/2015 146 77 42 2.0 -9.4 N/A 9.7 0.9 N/A N/A Net Cash -20.5

DELFI SP Delfi Ltd 12/2015 1,387 1,400 30 6.9 -1.2 N/A 30.3 4.9 6.9 5.5 Net Cash -1.4

FEH SP Food Empire Holdings Ltd 12/2015 162 192 N/A 6.8 0.1 36.1 N/A 0.8 N/A N/A 8.7 2.3

CSFG SP China Star Food Group Ltd 03/2016 60 25 44 24.1 3.4 N/A N/A 0.9 N/A N/A Net Cash -25.8

SMOON SP Sunmoon Food Co Ltd 12/2015 36 33 7 -29.2 -14.9 N/A N/A 4.3 N/A N/A Net Cash -43.0

Source: Bloomberg

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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23

Investment Risks

1. Intensifying competition due to low barrier to entry.

2. Rising operating expenses, particularly rental and labour costs, which could

compress margins. OCK is also subjected to risk of foreign worker levy

increase as 40-50% of its direct labours are foreigners.

3. Execution risks: (a) Unable to renew leases on favourable terms and

conditions, or unable to secure new strategic locations; and (b) regulatory

and licensing risks

4. Outsourcing risks: OCK has two major suppliers and contract

manufacturers

5. Others: (a) Change in consumers’ taste and preferences; (b) Food scare; (c)

Outbreak of food-related diseases; (d) FX risks (no hedging policy), mainly in

THB and MYR; (e) Change of tenant mix, revamp or closure of shopping

malls in which its retail outlets are located.

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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24

[Recap] OCK(Buy, TP: S$0.98, Last: S$0.715)

Completion of factory redevelopment targeted for 1QFY18F

Additional product lines at better margins to drive earnings

Expect earnings to grow 8.9% CAGR over the next three years, i.e.

FY19F PATMI to surge 29% from FY16

Inorganic and organic growth through new stores and higher same store

sales

Improved free cash flow profile post-consolidation could lead to higher

dividends

Competitive advantage are difficult for competitors to replicate

Perceived product differentiation through a trusted brand; and

Operating scale and technical skills

Page 25: Company Initiation - StocksBNB · 11/7/2016  · presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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China Aviation (Singapore) Oil

Maintain outperformance

Chen Guangzhi

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

7 November 2016

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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26

Revenue YTD breakdown

Middle distillates: down 1.8% to US$5.5bn

Other oil products: up 110.2% to US$2.9bn

Total trading volume grew by 67.2% y-o-y YTD

Jet fuel supply and trading: up 19.4% to 10.88mn tonnes

Other oil products supply and trading: 128% up to 12.36mn tonnes

Net profit YTD is higher than US$61.3mn of full year profit in FY15

Cash hoard: US$232.8mn as of Sep-16

China Aviation (Singapore) Oil(Buy, TP:$1.92 (prev. S$1.92), Last:S$1.40)

Results at a glance

(US$ mn) 9M16 9M15 y-y (%) Comments

Revenue 8,427.5 7,004.4 20.3 Due mainly to the increase in total trading volume of jet fuel and other oil

products. (9M16: 24.29mn tonnes vs 9M15:14.53mn tonnes)

Gross profit 33.5 27.4 21.9 Due mainly to the increase in jet fuel volume imported to China and higher gains

from trading and optimisation activities

Operating profit 20.5 19.2 6.7 Due mainly to higher administrative costs and higher other operating expenses

Associates and JVs 53.0 32.5 62.9 Due mainly to higher profit contributions from Pudong (US$47.0mn in 9M16 vs

US$30.8mn in 9M15) and OKYC (US$3.9mn in 1H16 vs loss of US$0.1mn in

9M15)

Net profit 71.0 49.9 42.4 Due to higher deferred tax liabilities and provision of income tax

Source: Company , Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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DBS Group Holdings Ltd

Asset Quality is the Red Herring

Jeremy Teong

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

07 November 2016

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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28

Vulnerable to NIM weakness in low interest rate envionment

Avg. Rates on interest earning assets fell 11bps. Avg. Rates on interest bearing liabilities fell 1bps.

DBS’ Loan-to-Deposit ratio is pushing to a high of c.90%

Ask how to grow income to deal with deteriorating asset quality. Not ask why asset quality is poorer than peers.

Strong fee and commission income supports performance

Wealth Management, up 47% y-o-y from higher bancassurance contributions.

Investment Banking, up 74% y-o-y from higher equity market, fixed income fees and increased advisory activities.

Cards, up 15% y-o-y from growth in credit and debit card transactions.

Boost from ANZ acquisition wealth and retail business in five markets

Access to S$11bn worth of customer loans, representing 3.74% of DBS’ customer loans and S$17bn worth of

customer deposits, representing 5.24% of DBS’ customer deposits.

Grow its Cards and Wealth Management franchise across this customer base.

DBS Group Holdings Ltd(Maintain Accumulate. Lower TP:S$15.71, previously S$16.09. Last:S$14.93)

Results at a glance

(SGD mn) 3Q16 3Q15 y-o-y (%) 2Q16 q-o-q (%) Comments

Net interest income 1,815 1,813 0.1% 1,833 -1.0% NIMs -1bps y-o-y, loans +1.8% yoy

Net Fees & Comm income 614 517 18.8% 628 -2.2% Higher WM, Investment Banking fees

and Cards

Other Non-interest income 500 382 30.9% 458 9.2% Higher Net income from investment

securities and Net trading Income

Total Income 2,929 2,712 8.0% 2,919 0.3%

Expenses 1,199 1,259 -4.8% 1,285 -6.7%

Credit Allowance 436 178 144.9% 366 19.1%S$169mn charged to general

allowance for prudent measure

Net Profit 1,102 1,093 0.8% 1,079 2.1%

Source: Company, PSR

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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iFAST Corporation Ltd

Expansion plans gaining traction

Jeremy Teong

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

07 November 2016

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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30

Current Strategies

The Singapore business is targeting to launch the stockbroking business at the end of 2016/early 2017

Hong Kong business has launched its stock broking capabilities for the B2B platform.

Malaysia business introduced insurance products distribution on its B2C platform in 3Q16

In 3Q16, the Chinese business has signed up 35 Fund Houses with over 1,400 funds on the platform, a strong

improvement from 20 Fund Houses with over 1,000 funds in 2Q16.

Near term catalyst

RMB initiatives to engage corporates and equity investment funds from Chongqing, Suzhou and Tianjin

iFAST Corporation Ltd(Maintain Buy. Maintain TP:S$1.275. Last:S$0.84)

Results at a glance

(SGD mn) 3Q16 3Q15 y-o-y (%) 2Q16 q-o-q (%) Comments

Recurring net revenue 9.13 8.45 8% 8.42 8%Higher AUA and recovery of global fin. mkt.

after Brexi t

Non-recurring net revenue 1.55 1.69 -8% 1.26 23%Decrease in comm. income as a result of weak

investment appeti te

Total Net Revenue 10.7 10.1 5% 9.7 10%

Other operating income 0.31 0.29 7% 0.30 5% Higher investment income

Staff costs 4.75 4.52 5% 4.76 0%Annual sa lary increment in Jan. More s taff for

China ops

Other operating expenses 3.58 2.67 34% 3.37 6%IT maintenance & services . Advertis ing and

promotion costs

Operating profit 1.86 2.85 -35% 1.11 67%

Net Finance Income 0.18 0.25 -26% 0.20 -10%Lower interest rates . Redemption of bond

investments

PATMI 1.91 2.95 -35% 1.14 67%

Source: Company, Phill ip Securities Research (Singapore)

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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SIA Engineering Company Ltd

Not cleared for take-off

Richard Leow

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

7 November 2016

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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32

Restructuring of services and partnering with OEM

Amalgamation of Rolls-Royce JVs: SAESL & IECO

Heavy Maintenance JV with Airbus: HMS Services

Integration of Pratt & Whitney JVs: CAS & IAT-A

Lower interim dividend declared; lowered our full year forecast by 0.5 cent

Interim dividend 4.0 cents, lower than previous year's 6.0 cents

Divestment gains not likely to translate fully to a special dividend

Reinvest in technology and build up capabilities

SIA Engineering Company Ltd(Reduce, TP:S$3.28, FY17e DPS: 13.5 cents (3.7%), Last:S$3.64)Results at a glance

(SGD mn) 2Q17 2Q16 yoy (%) Comments

Revenue 264.8 266.0 (0.5) Lower fleet management, mitigated by higher line maintenance

EBIT 24.5 27.0 (9.3) Higher materia l and staff costs , offset by lower subcontract costs

Associates & JVs 17.2 18.7 (8.0) Contributions from engine repair and overhaul centres was 18.8% lower

PATMI, reported 35.5 44.5 (20.2) 2Q16 included S$2.8mn one-off gain from partial disposal of associate, and a S$1.5mn

dividend from HAESL which ceased upon its divestment

PATMI, adjusted 35.5 40.2 (11.7) Adjusted for one-off and non-recurring

Source: Company, Phi l l ip Securi ties Research (Singapore)

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33

SIA Engineering Company Ltd(Reduce, TP:S$3.28, FY17e DPS: 13.5 cents (3.7%), Last:S$3.64)

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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34

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (“PSPL”) has no reason to

believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this

presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or

warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any

such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the

information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be

liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made

available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.

This presentation is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or

particular needs of any particular person.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment

objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products.

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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35

Analysts Pei Sai Teng, Macro

Jeremy Ng, Technical Analysis

Jeremy Teong, Banking & Finance

Soh Lin Sin, Consumer | Healthcare

Richard Leow, Transport | REITs (Industrial)

Dehong Tan, REITs (Commercial, Retail, Healthcare) | Property

Peter Ng, Property | Infrastructure

Ho Kang Wei, US Equity

Chen Guangzhi, Oil and Gas | Energy

By Phillip Securities ResearchMohamed Amiruddin, Operations Exec

Ask Questions!

Archived Webinar videos can be accessed at

https://www.poems.com.sg/education/webinars/

35